EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 27
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sharkie
Austria18770 Posts
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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argonautdice
Canada2722 Posts
On September 17 2014 03:13 asongdotnet wrote: lots of points and monies available wow! the monies were already there, but the points, THE POINTS Scarlett, sOs, DRG, and Cure really could use the extra points. | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
On September 17 2014 03:52 argonautdice wrote: the monies were already there, but the points, THE POINTS Scarlett, sOs, DRG, and Cure really could use the extra points. Realistically, unless Scarlett or DRG wins thier respective WCS region, the points from this Red Bull won't make a difference. In the case of cure, even if he wins both WCS KR and this tournament, he still won't make a difference since he'll only end up at 2800. If he wins both he'd need to also attend the last dreamhack and make a semi final to finish with 3175 points. Basically he'll need to do what Dear did last year. Most likely sOs is the only one with something on the line from this tournament for going to blizzcon, but who knows... I think we've seen a ton of surprises already. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
The strangest thing anyway is the feeling that Scarlett is more likely to win WCS than DRG is. | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough. ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it. Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75% | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 17 2014 06:53 KillerDucky wrote: For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough. ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it. Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75% This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily. | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
On September 17 2014 06:59 Die4Ever wrote: This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily. Ah yes nice. But I would like it sorted by tournament first and then by placement/points next. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 17 2014 07:03 KillerDucky wrote: Ah yes nice. But I would like it sorted by tournament first and then by placement/points next. the default sort is by the score of the event (how significant it thinks the event is) I think sorting by tournament then placing might be good, right now you can filter by the tournament name though | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 17 2014 06:59 Die4Ever wrote: This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily. I weighted the "simple" events much more heavily, should be a little less intimidating now on the first few pages of events | ||
tree.hugger
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 17 2014 12:59 tree.hugger wrote: Where is HerO? He's at 6-7% now. Goes up to 100% if he wins and down to 0.15% if he doesn't win it all. | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
On September 17 2014 13:02 The_Templar wrote: He's at 6-7% now. Goes up to 100% if he wins and down to 0.15% if he doesn't win it all. I'm on an old mobile so I can't check right now, but is that a percentage for if he finishes 2nd, or just if he doesn't finish 1st? | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 17 2014 13:16 Circumstance wrote: I'm on an old mobile so I can't check right now, but is that a percentage for if he finishes 2nd, or just if he doesn't finish 1st? That's if he doesn't finish first, he's down to .15%. However, second place would be a lot higher since that includes finishing in ro16. | ||
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Chillidawg
Norway50 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 17 2014 13:16 Circumstance wrote: I'm on an old mobile so I can't check right now, but is that a percentage for if he finishes 2nd, or just if he doesn't finish 1st? ~ 10.62 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 2.12 % ~ 5.91 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.02 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 99.94 % ~ 0.01 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 99.9 % | ||
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Beta2k
Austria218 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 18 2014 03:48 Beta2k wrote: so how does innovations wins today influence snute's percentage? Snute went from ~ 69.66 % to ~ 69.91 % after the 2 GSL matches, Innovation's win and Solar's loss kind of cancelled each other out for Snute I guess. | ||
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Beta2k
Austria218 Posts
On September 18 2014 03:52 Die4Ever wrote: Snute went from ~ 69.66 % to ~ 69.91 % after the 2 GSL matches, Innovation's win and Solar's loss kind of cancelled each other out for Snute I guess. ah okay. thanks for pointing that out and sorry if it the info was/is available already somewhere. i may have overlooked | ||
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