On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
But sOs and soO both deserve it. So please someone send sOs to dreamhack. Please. I don't know how good his english is but I just tweeted this site at him, hopefully he sees it.
On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
But sOs and soO both deserve it. So please someone send sOs to dreamhack. Please. I don't know how good his english is but I just tweeted this site at him, hopefully he sees it.
On September 16 2014 08:29 Popkiller wrote: 80% seems kinda high for Snute, considering he's almost definitely gonna get knocked out.
Not sure how, but watch.
here's some events that bring Snute's chances way down lol
~ 0.33 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 17.74 %
~ 2.21 % of the time Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 24.01 %
~ 2.48 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 24.04 %
~ 0.41 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 32.01 %
~ 0.95 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and viOLet gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and Solar loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 34.88 %
~ 1.31 % of the time Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Rain wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 35.92 %
People are always arguing about what race is most OP and what race is most UP, what region is strongest, what team is the best, which foreigner is going to be knocked out in the first round of the WCS Finals. What you need to tell them how wrong they are is some actual data, because facts always work against trolls. Let's look at the stats to prove you're right! And you are right, because you're smart enough to be reading this. Maybe.
We have several different breakdowns of Blizzcon chances to look at, this is the sum of all the percent chances for the players (divided by 16 since percents look better when they're out of 100).
This graph shows Races, broken down into the regions. I know you never bother to read text so I put some images in here. You're probably not even reading this.
Breakdown by Race Protoss: has ~ 40.5 % of the chances Terran: has ~ 32.1 % of the chances Zerg: has ~ 27.4 % of the chances
Protoss is slipping a bit, they used to be at 50% for a while so maybe they need a buff now to return to their former glory. Just ask Rain, Terran is too strong. Zerg looks ok, but they can always use a nerf.
Breakdown by WCS Region GSL: ~ 30.26 % WCS AM: ~ 33.19 % WCS EU: ~ 36.55 %
Wow GSL really is the worst region, although I'm surprised WCS EU is higher than WCS AM let's just blame the WCS system for that one.
Breakdown by WCS Region and Race GSL ----Protoss: ~ 20.79 % ----Terran: ~ 1.17 % ----Zerg: ~ 8.3 %
From this we can see that Protoss is doing very poorly in WCS AM, because only the AM players are strong enough to truly abuse balance issues. Protoss definitely needs a buff. Before we thought that WCS EU was stronger than WCS AM, obviously that was wrong. If we ignore the stats for Protoss since it's unfair how weak they are, you can clearly see the truth that WCS AM is by far the strongest region. I mean come on, we have the #1 best player in the world, HyuN, and he hasn't even won every season! And if you exclude Protoss as needed, you can see WCS AM has the top 4 players in the world! HyuN, TaeJa, Polt, and Bomber, you can't argue with that list. No really, don't even try.
Now let's look at the breakdown by teams and what players hold most of the chances for the teams.
This graph shows the teams broken down into Foreign, KeSPA, and eSF.
Foreign Teams ----ROCCAT ~ 6.25 % with HyuN ----CM Storm ~ 6.25 % with Polt ----mYinsanity ~ 12.5 % with StarDust and jjakji ----Yoe ~ 6.25 % with San ----EG ~ 5.82 % with Jaedong ----Liquid ~ 12.29 % with Taeja, Snute, Bunny ----teamless ~ 14.53 % with MC and Bomber ----Acer ~ 4.07 % with MMA and Scarlett ----other foreign teams 2.64%
KEEESSSSPPPPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ----CJ Entus ~ 6.05 % with herO ----KT ~ 6.25 % with Zest ----SKT T1 ~ 8.59 % with Classic, soO, Rain ----other KeSPA teams ~ 2.31 % (Jinair with sOs and Pigbaby, and Galaxy with Solar)
eSF ----Startale ~ 6.22 % with Life
With this we can see that the best team is teamless with ~ 14.53 %, they must have a ridiculous training house and great coaches, WCS Predictor shows them having 2,153 players! With this analysis we should see many other players rushing to try to join them. 2nd best team looks like it goes to mYinsanity, but if you say that then you're dumb. ROCCAT is way better, not only do they have the best player in the world, HyuN, but their players actually have an average Blizzcon chances of 100%! And that's just the average! For comparison, mYinsanity's average Blizzcon chances is only ~ 11.11 %. ROCCAT is literally 10 times better.
Now you might look at this and think eSF is so weak compared to KeSPa, but that's only because it's true. Although it should be noted that most of the best players in the world were once eSF like HyuN, MC, TaeJa, Polt, San, Bomber, jjakji, Life, and MMA. That's 9 players in the top 16, while KeSPA only has 4!
Ok this analysis needs some more salt. What's something really sad in StarCraft? How about team kills? How about team kills in the first round of Blizzcon? Wait the first round of the WCS Finals won't be at Blizzcon. How about team kills to fight for playing in the Blizzcon main tournament? Yea that sounds good.
~ 22.04 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. The 6th most likely first round match is actually a team kill, with over a 1 in 5 chance! It doesn't get much better than that.
It wouldn't be an SC2 tournament without some Liquid team kills. Unfortunately it looks like there are only realistic chances for 2 of them, and out of those we can only get 1. ~ 9.89 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.82 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. The much loved Team TaeJa might get to take out one of his foreigner team mates who will also probably be the only foreigner to qualify, how's that for some salt?
And lastly, I have an important announcement to make. I'm getting pretty tired of the Monte Carlo method doing it 2 years in a row, and I think I've found a much better solution. WCS Predictor 2015 will be using the much more robust Monte Cristo method. CatZ told me you guys won't be able to tell the difference though, he's probably right you guys are casuals. + Show Spoiler +
Yes this is written as a joke for my 8k post, The_Templar and NovemberstOrm made me do it (here's the proof http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=22953721 ), but all the numbers are correct (ok except the "literally 10 times better", it's actually close to only 9 times as much)
Scarlett GUARANTEED 250 POINTS. That's really big, as that changes her points from 3200 to 3450 if she wins WCS AM, making it look much more promising for her (provided that she manages to overcome this small and insignificant obstacle of winning WCS AM, of course ). (On the other hand, even if she wins RBBGW and gets second or worse in WCS AM, she is too short on points).
On September 17 2014 00:32 Dingodile wrote: I still dont understand why Scarlett, Cure and DRG get some points automatically. What happened?
It's because the tournaments they won to qualify did not give WCS points. If you get WCS points and a seed to get more WCS points then it's double dipping, it would basically be a cheap trick to have your tournament give more WCS points than Blizzard allows, so they have these rules in place. It would be pretty dumb if you won a tournament to get 750 WCS points, and then get seeded to automatically get at least 250 more lol.
I understand the logic they're using, but by this ruling, Scarlett and DRG officially have won the most elaborate qualifiers in the history of Starcraft.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 41.17 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 57.65 % in the previous update) ~ 49.44 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,500 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in the previous update)
Biggest winners and losers from readdition and confirmation of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners sOs went up by ~ 41.66 %, going from ~ 21.17 % to ~ 62.84 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 10.62 % Cure went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.2 % Solar went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 10.45 % to ~ 10.62 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 11.16 %, going from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 69.5 % Jaedong went down by ~ 8.43 %, going from ~ 90.22 % to ~ 81.79 % herO went down by ~ 5.82 %, going from ~ 96.74 % to ~ 90.92 % MMA went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 55.18 % to ~ 50.42 % soO went down by ~ 4.12 %, going from ~ 22.78 % to ~ 18.66 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went down by ~ 2.63 %, going from ~ 8.53 % to ~ 5.89 % Life went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 99.46 % to ~ 97.84 % Heart went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 6.66 % to ~ 5.34 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.43 % HuK went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 2.85 % to ~ 1.91 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 18.72 % to ~ 17.85 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.28 % to ~ 4.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 0.96 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 12.82 % to ~ 12.47 % Rain went down by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 14.73 % to ~ 14.49 % Golden went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 4.34 % to ~ 4.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.85 % to ~ 0.71 % Classic went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 99.86 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 49.82 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 69.5 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.47 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.59 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HuK ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.45 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.2 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.71 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.35 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.96 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 89.78 % to ~ 82.28 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 25.35 % to ~ 31.03 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
EPT
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