On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 15 2014 14:42 Loccstana wrote: Since you are probably generating a lot of random numbers in a very short time period for each simulation, entropy depletion might be problem, especially if you are relying on /dev/random. You might want to check if you are depleting the entropy pool, which would cause biases in your results.
I'm not using /Dev/random and I don't think I'm having that issue since I've seen a player with very low chances have 0 times qualified out of 15 million samples, and then score 1 qualification in a later block and finish at 1 time out of 30 million. And I've also seen other really low numbers of qualifications like double digits out of 30 million and they're spread out well across the distribution, as in they don't appear in chunks they show up gradually.
On September 15 2014 11:45 Die4Ever wrote: His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages)
I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help?
If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though.
soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else.
Ah. I didn't click into individual players; the mean is exactly what I am talking about.
I think there are two problems with mode and median here. The first is that both of them underestimate the importance of the off-chance points: for a single tournament at least. Say in a single elimination bracket with 125 points for Ro8 finish and 1000 points for the championship, the mean and mode for a slightly above average player will probably be 250 points and 125 points. These numbers completely overlook the comparably large number of points they will gain, in the off chance that they proceed further in the tournament. But if it is a highly competitive tournament, somebody slightly above/below average is bound to proceed. In this case I think the mean, 375 points, is a better representation about how many points we can expect an average player to earn in this tournament.
The second problem is about the granularity of the points. Like you said, mode and median give attainable number of points. But that can both be a good and a bad thing at the same time. The bad part is that it loses information. In Soo's example, if I look from the median only, I cannot tell whether he is eliminated from GSL or not. It's only when I combine that with his chance to Blizzcon, do I realize that means he is unfavored against his Ro8 opponent. But even that, how unfavored? Can't tell from the median either, as it may range from 49-51 to 1-99, and the median is still the same. The mean, even though you cannot read out the chance to Blizzcon from it, gives an idea about his chances for the remaining tournament.
Good point, I do like both, I think I still like median a little more, but the best part about mean might be that it shows the small differences between players because of the increased granularity. I'll leave it to everyone else though, let me know which one you like more.
technically only sOs and parting wouldn't be guaranteed points (if points are made available for RBBG) because they were invited whereas everyone else qualified for their spots
On September 16 2014 02:50 asongdotnet wrote: technically only sOs and parting wouldn't be guaranteed points (if points are made available for RBBG) because they were invited whereas everyone else qualified for their spots
I don't think so, "qualifying" by winning a tournament counts as an invite, same thing happened with IEM World Championship. Also what differentiates Parting and sOs from Scarlett, Trap, Bomber, DRG, Cure, and Polt? They all had to win a tournament or get 2nd to be invited.
"* Players must advance one round in order to claim WCS points for that placement. Being seeded through qualifiers counts as advancing one round. IEM Shanghai, IEM New York, IEM Singapore, IEM Sao Paulo and IEM Cologne does NOT count as qualifiers as shown on the wcs portal." http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IEM_Season_VIII_-_World_Championship
"All eight players are invited:
PartinG and sOs as the winner and runner up of Red Bull Battle Grounds New York City. Scarlett as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: North America. Trap as the winner of MLG Anaheim. Bomber as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Atlanta. DongRaeGu as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Global. Cure as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Online. Polt as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Detroit." http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Red_Bull_Battle_Grounds:_Washington
then as opposed to the 50% chance that there will be points wouldn't you say it's more likely that we won't see points for RBBG? With only 4 players able to obtain points and the fact that RBBG is at least a T2 WCS event how are they possibly going to distribute 4000 points amongst only 4 competitors in a fair manner?
I like RB tournaments but this system shouldnt give any points, is pretty much the same as WCS Global Season last year. If you are in top5 in your actual wcs (you get already more points than 6th and lower) AND you get another wcs points automatically because you qualified for WCS Global Season. This feels like the difference between 5th and 6th is bigger than 1st and 2nd or anything else. the same here with RB, winner of all RB tournaments are there (deserved) to fight money (deserved) and wcs points (undeserved).
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 16 2014 04:27 asongdotnet wrote: then as opposed to the 50% chance that there will be points wouldn't you say it's more likely that we won't see points for RBBG? With only 4 players able to obtain points and the fact that RBBG is at least a T2 WCS event how are they possibly going to distribute 4000 points amongst only 4 competitors in a fair manner?
I picked 50/50 because I don't feel like I have enough information to give a fair bias, Blizzard says maybe, only fair chances is 50/50.
On September 16 2014 04:45 Plexa wrote: Given that Red Bull is this weekend, it seems highly likely that the event will not give points.
It's getting really close but honestly RB has always been bad about announcing things in a timely manner, I think it was Detroit or Atlanta where they didn't even announce the groups until they were finished the next day...
Gfinity was considered tier 2 even though it gave out a bit fewer points but it still gave 750 for 1st, 500 for 2nd, 375 for 3rd/4th like I'm doing for RB (they also gave points to lower places though). Idk if it counts as tier 2 but that's what I set it to for now.
How about a poll? This poll is asking what I should do, not what Blizzard/RB should do. I'm giving a 5% option instead of a 0% option because just in case they suddenly announce that they're giving points on the day of the tournament I want to have some stats ready.
Poll: What chances should I use for RB giving WCS Points?
(Vote): 50% - half and half chances, maybe it will give WCS Points (Vote): 25% - lower chances, it probably won't give WCS Points (Vote): 5% - it almost definitely will not be giving WCS Points
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
No WCS point for the event.
was there an announcement? I didn't see anything
WCS points for the event ? No I don't think so.
MC said that you can't have WCS points for a tournament with only 8 players too. And MrBitter dodged the question on Skype.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
MC said that you can't have WCS points for a tournament with only 8 players too. And MrBitter dodged the question on Skype.
I wish I had a concrete "no" maybe from one of the participating players, but I'll take it. I'm gonna do an update now with RB Washington completely removed. Thanks for the info.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.66 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.98 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.23 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 57.65 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 49.23 % in the previous update) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers from Removal of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners Snute went up by ~ 5.51 %, going from ~ 75.15 % to ~ 80.66 % Jaedong went up by ~ 4.33 %, going from ~ 85.91 % to ~ 90.24 % MMA went up by ~ 4.11 %, going from ~ 51.06 % to ~ 55.17 % herO went up by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 96.73 % soO went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 20.96 % to ~ 22.77 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went up by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 7.26 % to ~ 8.54 % Life went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 98.64 % to ~ 99.46 % Heart went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 6.67 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.04 % to ~ 13.6 % HuK went up by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.84 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 4.91 % to ~ 5.27 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 1.28 % to ~ 1.55 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 12.73 % to ~ 12.84 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 18.61 % to ~ 18.71 %
Biggest Losers sOs went down by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 41.99 % to ~ 21.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 1.27 % to ~ 0.08 % Rain went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 15.65 % to ~ 14.73 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 10.25 % to ~ 9.88 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 10.46 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 56.46 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 80.66 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 2.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.46 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 2.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.88 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.6 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.74 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.84 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.85 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.41 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.55 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 86.14 % to ~ 89.78 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 23.45 % to ~ 25.35 %
Most Likely First Round WCS Finals Matches ~ 37.25 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.76 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.53 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.59 % chance to see HyuN vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.09 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.03 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.69 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.64 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.59 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.43 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 16.69 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.18 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.64 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.13 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.48 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.06 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.34 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.99 % chance to see Snute vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.7 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.9 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.75 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.74 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.63 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.54 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.17 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.75 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.38 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.29 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.95 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.68 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.03 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.98 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.9 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.48 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.46 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.44 % chance to see Life vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.34 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.23 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.07 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.94 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.21 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.71 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.32 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.07 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.05 % chance to see StarDust vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see soO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.81 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.8 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.6 % chance to see sOs vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.56 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.14 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.92 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.9 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.73 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.68 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.61 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.57 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.54 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.51 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.23 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.16 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.09 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
EPT
