EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 24
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timchen1017
37 Posts
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Advantageous
China1350 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 15 2014 11:00 Advantageous wrote: So I heard Naniwa is tied for 16th place again. Hey, your time machine is wrong, you landed in 2014 not 2016 | ||
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StarscreamG1
Portugal1653 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 15 2014 10:50 timchen1017 wrote: I've taken a look into the website. How about showing the expectation value of WCS points, instead of showing the median? If anything, it seems more informative for Soo's chances: his median is the same as his minimum for now. His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages) Not sure if you saw it but soO's mean WCS Points is listed on his page as 2,869 points http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=125 I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help? If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though. soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else. | ||
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Thrillz
4313 Posts
On September 15 2014 11:11 StarscreamG1 wrote: OMG, soO probably out? I'm not even a fan but...That's so wrong! He has to not loose to Stats in the GSL or his chances look bleak. | ||
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Ace Frehley
2030 Posts
On September 15 2014 12:07 Thrillz wrote: He has to not loose to Stats in the GSL or his chances look bleak. By the way he played against Super in the Kespa Cup, his chances look bleak. Unless he only releases his full powers in the GSL booth | ||
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JJH777
United States4420 Posts
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Loccstana
United States833 Posts
http://serverfault.com/questions/496909/how-can-i-detect-incidents-of-entropy-depletion | ||
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Elpea
Norway3 Posts
What am i missing? | ||
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timchen1017
37 Posts
On September 15 2014 11:45 Die4Ever wrote: His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages) Not sure if you saw it but soO's mean WCS Points is listed on his page as 2,869 points http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=125 I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help? If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though. soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else. Ah. I didn't click into individual players; the mean is exactly what I am talking about. I think there are two problems with mode and median here. The first is that both of them underestimate the importance of the off-chance points: for a single tournament at least. Say in a single elimination bracket with 125 points for Ro8 finish and 1000 points for the championship, the mean and mode for a slightly above average player will probably be 250 points and 125 points. These numbers completely overlook the comparably large number of points they will gain, in the off chance that they proceed further in the tournament. But if it is a highly competitive tournament, somebody slightly above/below average is bound to proceed. In this case I think the mean, 375 points, is a better representation about how many points we can expect an average player to earn in this tournament. The second problem is about the granularity of the points. Like you said, mode and median give attainable number of points. But that can both be a good and a bad thing at the same time. The bad part is that it loses information. In Soo's example, if I look from the median only, I cannot tell whether he is eliminated from GSL or not. It's only when I combine that with his chance to Blizzcon, do I realize that means he is unfavored against his Ro8 opponent. But even that, how unfavored? Can't tell from the median either, as it may range from 49-51 to 1-99, and the median is still the same. The mean, even though you cannot read out the chance to Blizzcon from it, gives an idea about his chances for the remaining tournament. | ||
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negativedge
4279 Posts
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year.. it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title. | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
On September 15 2014 17:27 negativedge wrote: it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title. As opposed to last year, when one of the first things TL posted after Blizzcon was "what we learned is that there is no single best player in the world". | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year.. I agree in the case of soO, because he just shows how absurdly both top-heavy and not-KR-favoured the point distribution is. Being in two GSL finals is just soO huge (sorry bout that). On the other hand, how can you even argue for sOs? He did achieve absolutely nothing in the GSL, the only reason he is even a contender for Blizzcon is his victory at one single non-WCS event and that is only because an absurd amount of money has been thrown into said event and thus it got the "Tier 1" label. If anything, we should be complaining that sOs is too high, not too low! | ||
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negativedge
4279 Posts
On September 15 2014 17:38 Circumstance wrote: As opposed to last year, when one of the first things TL posted after Blizzcon was "what we learned is that there is no single best player in the world". last year was a much more stacked bracket. if you took a poll of every serious starcraft fan and asked them to name the best ten players in the world, how many of those players would you see in the blizzcon field? Zest is the only slam dunk, with Taeja, hero, and maybe Polt deserving consideration.. last year we had Dear, Innovation, JD, sOs, Soulkey, Maru, and Taeja who would have appeared on a large percentage of those lists. almost everyone who had a significant impact on the scene was there. this year we can't even get soO in, and he's been in every GSL finals. I think most people would have Rain in the top three overall players in the world, and he very likely won't be there. most people would say maru is the best terran in the world (and everyone would have him top 3) and he won't be there. JD is losing to no-names on a regular basis and he'll be at blizzcon. jjakji isn't a serious contender in any tournament and he'll be there. our number 1 seed was just eliminated at Dreamhack by a guy I thought had retired. | ||
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year.. Just attend ONE foreigner tournament and he has a very good chance to qualifiy. 250points (5-8th place) will help alot for him because we have only stockholm now. Why worse next year? All I heard that only WCS KR gets more points. | ||
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Shuffleblade
Sweden1903 Posts
On September 15 2014 18:14 negativedge wrote: last year was a much more stacked bracket. if you took a poll of every serious starcraft fan and asked them to name the best ten players in the world, how many of those players would you see in the blizzcon field? Zest is the only slam dunk, with Taeja, hero, and maybe Polt deserving consideration.. last year we had Dear, Innovation, JD, sOs, Soulkey, Maru, and Taeja who would have appeared on a large percentage of those lists. almost everyone who had a significant impact on the scene was there. this year we can't even get soO in, and he's been in every GSL finals. I think most people would have Rain in the top three overall players in the world, and he very likely won't be there. most people would say maru is the best terran in the world (and everyone would have him top 3) and he won't be there. JD is losing to no-names on a regular basis and he'll be at blizzcon. jjakji isn't a serious contender in any tournament and he'll be there. our number 1 seed was just eliminated at Dreamhack by a guy I thought had retired. I really don't understand why soo many people underestimate foreign koreans. Zest, herO, Taeja, Life, Polt, MC, Bomber and Classic. Those are all heavy hitters. You automatically think that koreans that play in GSL are the strongest and thats what you call an assumption. Its an old outdated way of thinking. Yeah right, HyuN is so bad because he was taken out in a ZvZ by B4 while Rain is one of the best in the world while going 3-1 against the (oh so bad player) Bomber. According to your reasoning Kespa cup would have been a one sided affair with NA and EU WCS invités getting their ass kicked. What happend? San showing ByuL he can't hold against him even if he goes "the same build every game" while Bomber teaches the fanboys that Rain actually isn't the favorite to win the whole tournament. In between those things happened Pigbaby bombed out hard (Against Zest the eventual champion) and Stardust had some of the best games of the tournament that was nailbitingly close against the second favorite to take the championship, Flash. Your assumptions have already been disproven in the Kespa cup, which I am sure you would agree was one of the most stacked tournaments this year. Regarding the rest of you arguements, WCS is supposed to represent the year not the players form at this very moment. Jjakji is peaking right now it seems and has always done decently even though as you say he is not a favorite ever. Maru best T, that is just a joke atm I wouldn't even rate him top 3, he is slumping and its obvious. You just want to see your favorite players there and thats the end of that. Flash, Rain and soO should be att Blizzcon I think too, Flash peaked too late, Rain hasn't shown the actual results and soO has bombed out of everything except GSL. Sadly they haven't had the consistency in tournaments unlike players like lets say Life. | ||
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negativedge
4279 Posts
but it is flawed. if you have a team/sponsor/personal bank account willing to fly you around the world, you have a great chance at making blizzcon. if you're soO, you're not making it, even if you are by consensus the best zerg in the world and have had an unprecedented streak in the hardest tournament in the world. proleague participation screwed over a large chunk of the best players in the world. being on teams with korean focused sponsors screwed people over. and the players know this. we're seeing top tier players leaving kespa every day now, just in the hope they'll find a spot on the foreign gravy train. I'm sure Blizzard is working on some changes, but for now we have a blizzcon field that is not very representative of the scene. | ||
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Shuffleblade
Sweden1903 Posts
On September 15 2014 20:12 negativedge wrote: just because I don't think Bomber is one of the ten best players in the world doesn't mean I think he's the same as B4, who to my knowledge was making his first tournament appearance of 2014. I don't think "kespa koreans" are categorically better than "foreign koreans"--I had San/Byul as a toss up, and I happen to like San quite a bit--but the top tier proleague/GSL players are indeed a cut above. yes, Rain losing to Bomber was a rather large upset as far as I'm concerned, and I can say that without pretending that Bomber is no good. hyun is not bad, but losing to B4 is without a doubt a very poor result, and literally no one thinks Hyun is even in the conversation for best player in the world. he just copied MCs shotgun-the-foreign-scene approach. and more power to him, especially after getting left high and dry by quantic. it's not his fault that the point system is flawed. but it is flawed. if you have a team/sponsor/personal bank account willing to fly you around the world, you have a great chance at making blizzcon. if you're soO, you're not making it, even if you are by consensus the best zerg in the world and have had an unprecedented streak in the hardest tournament in the world. proleague participation screwed over a large chunk of the best players in the world. being on teams with korean focused sponsors screwed people over. and the players know this. we're seeing top tier players leaving kespa every day now, just in the hope they'll find a spot on the foreign gravy train. I'm sure Blizzard is working on some changes, but for now we have a blizzcon field that is not very representative of the scene. I'm sorry for some of my comments, I have to say I agree with you mostly, you make very good points. I dont agree with you about WCS being flawed though, it depends what you expect from WCS. It is flawed if you only look at it thinking its a system that is supposed to make the "the best players in the world" go to blizzcon. I think its a system that is supposed to make the players that produces the best results in tournaments go to blizzcon. No matter what reason, if you are not producing results in tournaments then you don't earn points. It can be because you can't fly around to different events due to economical reasons. It could be because you are horrible at offline events, it could be because you have one particular matchup that is weak and so on. In the end I think having a great team/economy to be able to fly around is an advantage, not an unfair advantage. WCS is not created to cater to the "best players in the world", if it was only GSL players would be eligible. The thought is taking the best from korea, the best from europe and the best from north america. From that perspective I don't think the World Championship Series is flawed. | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing? Well the G3 infinity tournament that bunny won had only 12 players in it and it some how managed to give out WCS point despite not having 16 players in it. with the way things are currently going, I'm going to assume neither soO or sOs will be at blizzcon, This leaves Zest, Life, herO, Classic and whoever will win WCS KR as the presentatives of KR at blizzcon. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the winner of blizzCon will could be any of the KR reps minus Classic plus TaeJa. Similar all the season finals and blizzcon from last year, I expect the KR region player to beat the EU/AM player the majority of the time. | ||
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