EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 22
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Loccstana
United States833 Posts
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
On September 14 2014 17:37 Loccstana wrote: Does Flash have any chance of going to Blizzcon? If another tournament is suddenly announced and he goes then he's still probably fucked. So no. | ||
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Beta2k
Austria218 Posts
edit: okay rain has to perform well at upcoming gsl matches to still get into the global finals. same for inno. | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 14 2014 22:03 SNSeigifried wrote: Oh btw Die4Ever the #2 headband is now the unofficial world champion so both titles have now met!!!  I remember this happening at least once before, pretty sure they split up with proleague before | ||
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William paradise
1753 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 14 2014 22:46 William paradise wrote: If Scarlett is able to win WCS is she guaranteed a spot in blizzcon? Even with DH Stockholm coming up? Scarlett has a ~ 9.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.04 % to ~ 99.97 % so really close to guaranteed, although this is counting red bull dc giving WCS Points if she wins the first match, so it would be slightly lower if they don't (like ~ 99.8 % or so lol) after Dreamhack I'm going to make red bull dc only give points 50% of the time since there's STILL been no announcement about it  it's still listed as TBD on blizzard's WCS website | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 14 2014 23:22 opisska wrote: What's "#2 headband"? What do you mean by "if she wins the first match"? It won't be played "battlegrounds style"? well we don't know the format for red bull yet, but WCS doesn't allow giving points for invited/seeded players unless they advance at least 1 round, the simulation is doing it as an 8 player single elim bracket copy pasta for the headbands If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro_samurai#Plot It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points. So at the begging of the year sOs had the #1 headband and Jaedong had the #2 headband. Jaedong's first WCS matches were at ASUS ROG Winter, where he defended the #2 headband against GunGFuBanDa, elfi, and Liquid Hero. But then Life beat Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then San beat Life to take the #2 headband. From there San won the tournament and still has the #2 headband. So now we have sOs still with the #1 headband, and San with the #2 headband with 2 defenses (StarDust and Dear). The only way for sOs to lose his #1 headband is if the player with the #2 headband beats him in a WCS Tournament. So if San keeps defending and holds on to his #2 headband, and then he beats sOs at IEM Cologne, then San will take the #1 headband and sOs will get the #2 headband. A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
WCS Predictor 2014 DreamHack Moscow Semifinals Starts in This match is important for   MMA!This match is important for   Snute!MMA, Snute in DreamHack Moscow - MMA is at ~ 30.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 51.91 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 40.78 %.~ 48.09 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.11 %.------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 67.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 48.09 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.52 %.~ 51.91 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 46.71 %.Starts in jjakji, TRUE in DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 60.03 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 39.97 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.98 %.------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 39.97 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %.~ 60.03 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
Also one more general topic for discussion: why aren't there more players from around the 16th wcs place currently playing in DH:Moscow? Wouldn't it be worth the travel to have a batter shot at the insane money of Blizzcon? Or are people just being realistic? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 14 2014 23:36 opisska wrote: Thanks! It's pretty lame from Redbull/whoeverisinchargeofwcspointdistribution to not having clarified that system of tournament and point distribution already. (Well, in practice, it's only relevant for Scarlett, but still!) Also one more general topic for discussion: why aren't there more players from around the 16th wcs place currently playing in DH:Moscow? Wouldn't it be worth the travel to have a batter shot at the insane money of Blizzcon? Or are people just being realistic? Red Bull could also help sOs and DongRaeGu (he's still in GSL) if they do give points haha idk, maybe they don't know about WCS Predictor so they don't know how much it would help? lol, maybe we'll see more at DreamHack Stockholm | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Rehio
United States1718 Posts
Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D | ||
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Darkdwarf
Sweden960 Posts
On September 15 2014 00:16 asongdotnet wrote: sOs has to hope for points for DC Battlegrounds, either that or that the WCS champs for each region are from players already guaranteed in... he's too close to the cutoff line I hope he gets to go to DH and gets some points there too. | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
On September 15 2014 00:17 Rehio wrote: I love this predictor, and I love how obsessed I've become with WCS points leading into Blizzcon. Last year I didn't really care much, but it seems different this time, for some reason. Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D DreamHack Stockholm, if he goes... If not, there is no more tournament for him. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 15 2014 00:17 Rehio wrote: I love this predictor, and I love how obsessed I've become with WCS points leading into Blizzcon. Last year I didn't really care much, but it seems different this time, for some reason. Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D thanks Snute is now around ~ 46.64 % GSL, WCS AM, and WCS EU actually affects him a bit, and of course DreamHack Stockholm can still secure his 100% here are some other players' events that can affect him (this is before his loss so all these chances will be a bit lower once I do the update, but at least you can get an idea for what players can help/hurt him) + Show Spoiler [Other Player Events] + (you can see these with the keyword filter "other", and "single" to get non-grouped events) ~ 43.89 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 73.9 % ~ 56.11 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 62.02 % ~ 17.57 % of the time Zest gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 81.3 % ~ 18.65 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 55.39 % ~ 42.56 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 62.42 % ~ 42.56 % of the time Stats loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 62.42 % ~ 57.44 % of the time Stats wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 70.8 % ~ 57.44 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 70.8 % ~ 7.57 % of the time soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 46.81 % ~ 45.14 % of the time Rain wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 63.08 % ~ 45.14 % of the time Zest loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 63.08 % ~ 54.86 % of the time Rain loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 70.65 % ~ 54.86 % of the time Zest wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 70.65 % ~ 9.86 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 51.51 % ~ 44.1 % of the time MaNa wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 71.17 % ~ 11.44 % of the time Stats gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 81.32 % ~ 55.9 % of the time MaNa loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 64.13 % ~ 7.3 % of the time viOLet gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 49.82 % ~ 12.01 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 78.98 % ~ 7.47 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 51.5 % ~ 15.17 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 57.99 % ~ 11.04 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 55.75 % ~ 15.57 % of the time Rain gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 58.27 % ~ 43.11 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 64.1 % ~ 43.44 % of the time Solar wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 64.17 % ~ 56.89 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 69.61 % ~ 82.43 % of the time Zest doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 64.23 % ~ 81.35 % of the time INnoVation doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 69.95 % ~ 84.43 % of the time Rain doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.89 % ~ 84.83 % of the time sOs doesn't get 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.89 % ~ 88.56 % of the time Stats doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 65.41 % ~ 90.14 % of the time Scarlett doesn't get 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.95 % ~ 87.99 % of the time San doesn't get 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 65.63 % ~ 92.43 % of the time soO doesn't get 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.91 % ~ 88.96 % of the time ForGG doesn't get 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.66 % ~ 92.7 % of the time viOLet doesn't get 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.6 % ~ 92.53 % of the time MMA doesn't get 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 67.23 % to ~ 68.5 % | ||
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Rehio
United States1718 Posts
Thanks for all of this, it's really amazing to see. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 15 2014 00:31 Rehio wrote: It's like a list of people for me to cheer against! :D Thanks for all of this, it's really amazing to see. and some for you to cheer for on Snute's behalf! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
WCS Predictor 2014 DreamHack Moscow Finals + Show Spoiler [Changes During This and KeSPA Cup] + Biggest Winners  herO went up by ~ 50.8 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 95.31 % Classic went up by ~ 36.54 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.9 % jjakji went up by ~ 27.32 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA went up by ~ 21.51 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 39.78 % Snute went up by ~ 12.53 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 47.21 % Heart went up by ~ 1.73 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 6.66 %Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 58.93 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 22.71 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 21.27 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 5.89 % Rain went down by ~ 17.18 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.12 % viOLet went down by ~ 8.74 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 14.81 % sOs went down by ~ 8.65 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 65.66 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.66 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 89.99 % Solar went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.5 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % HuK went down by ~ 1.88 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.88 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.15 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 8.98 % MaNa went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 1.05 % Happy went down by ~ 1.6 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 0.71 % HerO went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 2.82 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 10.97 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 2.91 % Life went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.93 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.21 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 3.88 % to ~ 3.05 % Golden went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.15 % Cure went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.34 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.37 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.73 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.35 %Starts in This match is important for MMA!jjakji, MMA in DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 57.29 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 42.71 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 39.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 42.71 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 53.76 %.~ 57.29 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 29.35 %. | ||
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