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Active: 613 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
1 2 3 4 5 76 77 78 Next
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:35:38
September 13 2013 11:50 GMT
#1
I've been working on a program that calculates each players' chances of going to Blizzcon. It works by running hundreds of thousands of simulations of the tournament brackets using Monte Carlo method(wikipedia it) with the help of Aligulac ratings. Not only does it give % chances, but it also lists events that help or hurt that player's chances in the details section.

-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 16.00% of the time. When it does, it increases HyuN's chances to 100.00%.

This means that 16% of the time, HyuN will get 1th place in WCS AM Premier. When he does get 1th place, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon are 100%.

Please note that the percentages are how often something happens in the simulations performed and are not exact(whatever that means). If the simulation says 100% of the time MC qualifies, and it says 15000000/15000000, then it may actually only be 99.99999%. Also consider that qualification chances in an event have a reduced sample size and so have a greater margin of error the less likely that event is.

I will update this a few times a week, and I will update this immediately after big results.

This latest update on Sunday, Oct 27 11:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) includes -
-Season 3 Finals finals set
-Revival with 90% chance to make it top 2 in his challenger group, by popular vote since groups annouced yet
-WCS AM COMPLETED
-GSL COMPLETED with correct results this time lol
-5 million samples for overall, 3 million are used for the event search for speed
-IEM COMPLETED
-bug fix on points awarded for 16th-9th place in IEM
-Revival gets a 24 point bonus 25% of the time, a 26 point bonus the other 25% of the time(0 point bonus other 50%) to do a simple simulation of challenger and avoid tie breakers
-foreigner hope rating!
-Revival replacing ForGG, Hyun replacing Polt, Hack replacing Stardust at IEM
-GSL semifinals and placement matches completed
-further improved formatting and colors!

Chances of Advancing to Blizzcon

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +


1. Soulkey WJS, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6250 points, needs at least 6250 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
Soulkey WJS starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Dear STX
Soulkey WJS loses this match 42.930% of the time, which decreases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.
Soulkey WJS wins this match 57.070% of the time, which increases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.



2. INnoVation, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6100 points, needs at least 6100 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


3. Jaedong, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5650 points, needs at least 5650 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


4. Polt, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5625 points, needs at least 5625 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


5. HerO Liquid, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4950 points, needs at least 4950 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


6. Maru Prime, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4675 points, needs at least 4675 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


7. Bomber, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4425 points, needs at least 4425 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


8. MMA Acer, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4350 points, needs at least 4350 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


9. MC, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4275 points, needs at least 4275 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


10. TaeJa, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4225 points, needs at least 4225 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


11. sOs, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3850 points, needs at least 3850 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


12. Dear STX, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3750 points, needs at least 3750 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
Dear STX starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Soulkey WJS
Dear STX loses this match 57.070% of the time, which decreases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.
Dear STX wins this match 42.930% of the time, which increases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.



13. aLive, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3600 points, needs at least 3600 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


14. Mvp IM, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3575 points, needs at least 3575 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


15. duckdeok, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3550 points, needs at least 3550 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


16. NaNiwa, 3560288/5000000, minimum 3200 points, needs at least 3200 points, 71.2058%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 42.930% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 71.199%.

-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 57.070% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 71.204%.



17. Revival, 1439712/5000000, minimum 3199 points, needs at least 3201 points, 28.7942%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 57.070% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 28.796%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 42.930% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 28.801%.


+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0.0001% chances] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0% chances] +


18. Socke, 0/5000000, 0%

19. Capoch, 0/5000000, 0%

20. Crazy KT, 0/5000000, 0%

21. Daisy, 0/5000000, 0%

22. Harstem, 0/5000000, 0%

23. Stephano, 0/5000000, 0%

24. Hurricane, 0/5000000, 0%

25. Puzzle, 0/5000000, 0%

26. Siw, 0/5000000, 0%

27. Stats, 0/5000000, 0%

28. RorO, 0/5000000, 0%

29. Verdi, 0/5000000, 0%

30. Ryung, 0/5000000, 0%

31. DIMAGA, 0/5000000, 0%

32. Fenix, 0/5000000, 0%

33. IdrA, 0/5000000, 0%

34. Maker, 0/5000000, 0%

35. Leenock, 0/5000000, 0%

36. monchi, 0/5000000, 0%

37. BBoongBBoong, 0/5000000, 0%

38. Last STX, 0/5000000, 0%

39. Tilea, 0/5000000, 0%

40. Drunkenboi, 0/5000000, 0%

41. iaguz, 0/5000000, 0%

42. JYP, 0/5000000, 0%

43. MyuNgSiK, 0/5000000, 0%

44. Seed, 0/5000000, 0%

45. ByuN, 0/5000000, 0%

46. Center, 0/5000000, 0%

47. ParalyzE, 0/5000000, 0%

48. Snute, 0/5000000, 0%

49. Ruin, 0/5000000, 0%

50. SeleCT, 0/5000000, 0%

51. AlaStOr, 0/5000000, 0%

52. viOLet, 0/5000000, 0%

53. Bails, 0/5000000, 0%

54. Bang, 0/5000000, 0%

55. Bischu, 0/5000000, 0%

56. Bunny CJ, 0/5000000, 0%

57. DarkHydra, 0/5000000, 0%

58. mOOnGLaDe, 0/5000000, 0%

59. Golden, 0/5000000, 0%

60. Ian, 0/5000000, 0%

61. Jogginghose, 0/5000000, 0%

62. MorroW, 0/5000000, 0%

63. NightEnD, 0/5000000, 0%

64. Sonder, 0/5000000, 0%

65. Xenocider, 0/5000000, 0%

66. ALBM, 0/5000000, 0%

67. Argo, 0/5000000, 0%

68. Balloon, 0/5000000, 0%

69. SortOf, 0/5000000, 0%

70. Flying, 0/5000000, 0%

71. Squirtle, 0/5000000, 0%

72. Billowy, 0/5000000, 0%

73. Dayshi, 0/5000000, 0%

74. Dark, 0/5000000, 0%

75. Hydra, 0/5000000, 0%

76. Tefel, 0/5000000, 0%

77. Journey, 0/5000000, 0%

78. MaNa, 0/5000000, 0%

79. JuNi, 0/5000000, 0%

80. Ret, 0/5000000, 0%

81. Kop, 0/5000000, 0%

82. Shine Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

83. Bunny, 0/5000000, 0%

84. LabyRinth, 0/5000000, 0%

85. Mamuri, 0/5000000, 0%

86. Bly, 0/5000000, 0%

87. Noblesse, 0/5000000, 0%

88. FanTaSy, 0/5000000, 0%

89. Pet, 0/5000000, 0%

90. s2, 0/5000000, 0%

91. sC, 0/5000000, 0%

92. Shark Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

93. sKyHigh, 0/5000000, 0%

94. Sniper, 0/5000000, 0%

95. Solar, 0/5000000, 0%

96. Strelok, 0/5000000, 0%

97. Sparta, 0/5000000, 0%

98. theognis, 0/5000000, 0%

99. uzer, 0/5000000, 0%

100. Terminator, 0/5000000, 0%

101. TurN, 0/5000000, 0%

102. VINES, 0/5000000, 0%

103. SjoW, 0/5000000, 0%

104. ZerO, 0/5000000, 0%

105. Trust, 0/5000000, 0%

106. YoDa IM, 0/5000000, 0%

107. Sound T, 0/5000000, 0%

108. CoCa, 0/5000000, 0%

109. Feast, 0/5000000, 0%

110. XY, 0/5000000, 0%

111. Creator Prime, 0/5000000, 0%

112. EffOrt, 0/5000000, 0%

113. hellokitty, 0/5000000, 0%

114. KiLLeR Clarity, 0/5000000, 0%

115. MarineKing, 0/5000000, 0%

116. RagnaroK, 0/5000000, 0%

117. Beastyqt, 0/5000000, 0%

118. Illusion ROOT, 0/5000000, 0%

119. Savage, 0/5000000, 0%

120. Oz, 0/5000000, minimum 2850 points, 0%

121. Rain SKT1, 0/5000000, minimum 2750 points, 0%

122. ForGG, 0/5000000, minimum 2500 points, 0%

123. Trap, 0/5000000, minimum 2450 points, 0%

124. Scarlett, 0/5000000, minimum 2375 points, 0%

125. HyuN, 0/5000000, minimum 2325 points, 0%

126. soO, 0/5000000, minimum 2300 points, 0%

127. First IM, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

128. TLO, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

129. VortiX, 0/5000000, minimum 2150 points, 0%

130. ByuL, 0/5000000, minimum 2100 points, 0%

131. Alicia, 0/5000000, minimum 1925 points, 0%

132. Symbol, 0/5000000, minimum 1875 points, 0%

133. Life, 0/5000000, minimum 1825 points, 0%

134. Grubby, 0/5000000, minimum 1775 points, 0%

135. KangHo, 0/5000000, minimum 1725 points, 0%

136. Genius, 0/5000000, minimum 1550 points, 0%

137. StarDust, 0/5000000, minimum 1525 points, 0%

138. Hack, 0/5000000, minimum 1450 points, 0%

139. Welmu, 0/5000000, minimum 1375 points, 0%

140. LucifroN, 0/5000000, minimum 1325 points, 0%

141. PartinG, 0/5000000, minimum 1300 points, 0%

142. MacSed, 0/5000000, minimum 1200 points, 0%

143. Happy Empire, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

144. Flash KT, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

145. TitaN RoX.Kis, 0/5000000, minimum 1075 points, 0%

146. SuperNova, 0/5000000, minimum 1000 points, 0%

147. BabyKnight, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

148. CranK Axiom, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

149. HuK, 0/5000000, minimum 900 points, 0%

150. HasuObs, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

151. DongRaeGu, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

152. GuMiho, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

153. ThorZaIN, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

154. Nerchio, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

155. NesTea, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

156. Apocalypse, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

157. TheStC, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

158. Heart, 0/5000000, minimum 750 points, 0%

159. Minigun, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

160. Jim CN, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

161. Suppy, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

162. SaSe, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

163. Sage, 0/5000000, minimum 700 points, 0%

164. Curious, 0/5000000, minimum 675 points, 0%

165. sLivko, 0/5000000, minimum 650 points, 0%

166. hyvaa, 0/5000000, minimum 625 points, 0%

167. KeeN, 0/5000000, minimum 600 points, 0%

168. Bbyong, 0/5000000, minimum 575 points, 0%

169. Goswser, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

170. Sen, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

171. Targa, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

172. elfi, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

173. jjakji, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

174. DeMusliM, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

175. Shuttle T, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

176. ToD, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

177. MajOr, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

178. ViBE, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

179. puCK, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

180. TRUE JinAir, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

181. YugiOh, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

182. Kas, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

183. Sleep, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

184. JangBi, 0/5000000, minimum 400 points, 0%

185. Top CN, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

186. HwangSin, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

187. TAiLS MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

188. YongHwa, 0/5000000, minimum 350 points, 0%

189. Neeb, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

190. Starbuck, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

191. State, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

192. KrasS, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

193. Reality, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

194. San, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

195. Super MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

196. ShoWTimE ESC, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

197. qxc, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

198. Dream MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

199. Arthur P, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

200. Noname, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

201. Pigbaby, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

202. BlinG, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

203. FireCake, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

204. herO CJ, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

205. Swagger, 0/5000000, minimum 175 points, 0%

206. SonGDuri, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

207. Avenge, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

208. zest, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +
0.00% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2950 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
71.21% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

+ Show Spoiler [foreigner hope rating] +
Chance of Blizzcon having a foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 0 foreigners is 28.7942%, 1439712/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 1 foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000
NaNiwa from Sweden has a 71.2058% chance. The chance that NaNiwa is the only foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000


edit: someone asked for a run where every player is considered equal
+ Show Spoiler [all players equal] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +


1. Soulkey WJS, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6250 points, needs at least 6250 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
Soulkey WJS starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Dear STX
Soulkey WJS loses this match 49.997% of the time, which decreases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.
Soulkey WJS wins this match 50.003% of the time, which increases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.



2. INnoVation, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6100 points, needs at least 6100 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


3. Jaedong, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5650 points, needs at least 5650 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


4. Polt, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5625 points, needs at least 5625 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


5. HerO Liquid, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4950 points, needs at least 4950 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


6. Maru Prime, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4675 points, needs at least 4675 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


7. Bomber, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4425 points, needs at least 4425 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


8. MMA Acer, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4350 points, needs at least 4350 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


9. MC, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4275 points, needs at least 4275 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


10. TaeJa, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4225 points, needs at least 4225 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


11. sOs, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3850 points, needs at least 3850 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


12. Dear STX, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3750 points, needs at least 3750 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
Dear STX starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Soulkey WJS
Dear STX loses this match 50.003% of the time, which decreases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.
Dear STX wins this match 49.997% of the time, which increases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.



13. aLive, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3600 points, needs at least 3600 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


14. Mvp IM, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3575 points, needs at least 3575 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


15. duckdeok, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3550 points, needs at least 3550 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +


16. Revival, 2502820/5000000, minimum 3199 points, needs at least 3201 points, 50.0564%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 50.003% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 50.061%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 49.997% of the time. When it does, it decreases Revival's chances to 50.024%.



17. NaNiwa, 2497180/5000000, minimum 3200 points, needs at least 3200 points, 49.9436%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 50.003% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 49.939%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 49.997% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 49.976%.


+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0.0001% chances] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0% chances] +


18. Socke, 0/5000000, 0%

19. Capoch, 0/5000000, 0%

20. Crazy KT, 0/5000000, 0%

21. Daisy, 0/5000000, 0%

22. Harstem, 0/5000000, 0%

23. Stephano, 0/5000000, 0%

24. Hurricane, 0/5000000, 0%

25. Puzzle, 0/5000000, 0%

26. Siw, 0/5000000, 0%

27. Stats, 0/5000000, 0%

28. RorO, 0/5000000, 0%

29. Verdi, 0/5000000, 0%

30. Ryung, 0/5000000, 0%

31. DIMAGA, 0/5000000, 0%

32. Fenix, 0/5000000, 0%

33. IdrA, 0/5000000, 0%

34. Maker, 0/5000000, 0%

35. Leenock, 0/5000000, 0%

36. monchi, 0/5000000, 0%

37. BBoongBBoong, 0/5000000, 0%

38. Last STX, 0/5000000, 0%

39. Tilea, 0/5000000, 0%

40. Drunkenboi, 0/5000000, 0%

41. iaguz, 0/5000000, 0%

42. JYP, 0/5000000, 0%

43. MyuNgSiK, 0/5000000, 0%

44. Seed, 0/5000000, 0%

45. ByuN, 0/5000000, 0%

46. Center, 0/5000000, 0%

47. ParalyzE, 0/5000000, 0%

48. Snute, 0/5000000, 0%

49. Ruin, 0/5000000, 0%

50. SeleCT, 0/5000000, 0%

51. AlaStOr, 0/5000000, 0%

52. viOLet, 0/5000000, 0%

53. Bails, 0/5000000, 0%

54. Bang, 0/5000000, 0%

55. Bischu, 0/5000000, 0%

56. Bunny CJ, 0/5000000, 0%

57. DarkHydra, 0/5000000, 0%

58. mOOnGLaDe, 0/5000000, 0%

59. Golden, 0/5000000, 0%

60. Ian, 0/5000000, 0%

61. Jogginghose, 0/5000000, 0%

62. MorroW, 0/5000000, 0%

63. NightEnD, 0/5000000, 0%

64. Sonder, 0/5000000, 0%

65. Xenocider, 0/5000000, 0%

66. ALBM, 0/5000000, 0%

67. Argo, 0/5000000, 0%

68. Balloon, 0/5000000, 0%

69. SortOf, 0/5000000, 0%

70. Flying, 0/5000000, 0%

71. Squirtle, 0/5000000, 0%

72. Billowy, 0/5000000, 0%

73. Dayshi, 0/5000000, 0%

74. Dark, 0/5000000, 0%

75. Hydra, 0/5000000, 0%

76. Tefel, 0/5000000, 0%

77. Journey, 0/5000000, 0%

78. MaNa, 0/5000000, 0%

79. JuNi, 0/5000000, 0%

80. Ret, 0/5000000, 0%

81. Kop, 0/5000000, 0%

82. Shine Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

83. Bunny, 0/5000000, 0%

84. LabyRinth, 0/5000000, 0%

85. Mamuri, 0/5000000, 0%

86. Bly, 0/5000000, 0%

87. Noblesse, 0/5000000, 0%

88. FanTaSy, 0/5000000, 0%

89. Pet, 0/5000000, 0%

90. s2, 0/5000000, 0%

91. sC, 0/5000000, 0%

92. Shark Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

93. sKyHigh, 0/5000000, 0%

94. Sniper, 0/5000000, 0%

95. Solar, 0/5000000, 0%

96. Strelok, 0/5000000, 0%

97. Sparta, 0/5000000, 0%

98. theognis, 0/5000000, 0%

99. uzer, 0/5000000, 0%

100. Terminator, 0/5000000, 0%

101. TurN, 0/5000000, 0%

102. VINES, 0/5000000, 0%

103. SjoW, 0/5000000, 0%

104. ZerO, 0/5000000, 0%

105. Trust, 0/5000000, 0%

106. YoDa IM, 0/5000000, 0%

107. Sound T, 0/5000000, 0%

108. CoCa, 0/5000000, 0%

109. Feast, 0/5000000, 0%

110. XY, 0/5000000, 0%

111. Creator Prime, 0/5000000, 0%

112. EffOrt, 0/5000000, 0%

113. hellokitty, 0/5000000, 0%

114. KiLLeR Clarity, 0/5000000, 0%

115. MarineKing, 0/5000000, 0%

116. RagnaroK, 0/5000000, 0%

117. Beastyqt, 0/5000000, 0%

118. Illusion ROOT, 0/5000000, 0%

119. Savage, 0/5000000, 0%

120. Oz, 0/5000000, minimum 2850 points, 0%

121. Rain SKT1, 0/5000000, minimum 2750 points, 0%

122. ForGG, 0/5000000, minimum 2500 points, 0%

123. Trap, 0/5000000, minimum 2450 points, 0%

124. Scarlett, 0/5000000, minimum 2375 points, 0%

125. HyuN, 0/5000000, minimum 2325 points, 0%

126. soO, 0/5000000, minimum 2300 points, 0%

127. First IM, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

128. TLO, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

129. VortiX, 0/5000000, minimum 2150 points, 0%

130. ByuL, 0/5000000, minimum 2100 points, 0%

131. Alicia, 0/5000000, minimum 1925 points, 0%

132. Symbol, 0/5000000, minimum 1875 points, 0%

133. Life, 0/5000000, minimum 1825 points, 0%

134. Grubby, 0/5000000, minimum 1775 points, 0%

135. KangHo, 0/5000000, minimum 1725 points, 0%

136. Genius, 0/5000000, minimum 1550 points, 0%

137. StarDust, 0/5000000, minimum 1525 points, 0%

138. Hack, 0/5000000, minimum 1450 points, 0%

139. Welmu, 0/5000000, minimum 1375 points, 0%

140. LucifroN, 0/5000000, minimum 1325 points, 0%

141. PartinG, 0/5000000, minimum 1300 points, 0%

142. MacSed, 0/5000000, minimum 1200 points, 0%

143. Happy Empire, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

144. Flash KT, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

145. TitaN RoX.Kis, 0/5000000, minimum 1075 points, 0%

146. SuperNova, 0/5000000, minimum 1000 points, 0%

147. BabyKnight, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

148. CranK Axiom, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

149. HuK, 0/5000000, minimum 900 points, 0%

150. HasuObs, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

151. DongRaeGu, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

152. GuMiho, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

153. ThorZaIN, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

154. Nerchio, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

155. NesTea, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

156. Apocalypse, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

157. TheStC, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

158. Heart, 0/5000000, minimum 750 points, 0%

159. Minigun, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

160. Jim CN, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

161. Suppy, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

162. SaSe, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

163. Sage, 0/5000000, minimum 700 points, 0%

164. Curious, 0/5000000, minimum 675 points, 0%

165. sLivko, 0/5000000, minimum 650 points, 0%

166. hyvaa, 0/5000000, minimum 625 points, 0%

167. KeeN, 0/5000000, minimum 600 points, 0%

168. Bbyong, 0/5000000, minimum 575 points, 0%

169. Goswser, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

170. Sen, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

171. Targa, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

172. elfi, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

173. jjakji, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

174. DeMusliM, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

175. Shuttle T, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

176. ToD, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

177. MajOr, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

178. ViBE, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

179. puCK, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

180. TRUE JinAir, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

181. YugiOh, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

182. Kas, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

183. Sleep, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

184. JangBi, 0/5000000, minimum 400 points, 0%

185. Top CN, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

186. HwangSin, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

187. TAiLS MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

188. YongHwa, 0/5000000, minimum 350 points, 0%

189. Neeb, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

190. Starbuck, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

191. State, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

192. KrasS, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

193. Reality, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

194. San, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

195. Super MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

196. ShoWTimE ESC, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

197. qxc, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

198. Dream MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

199. Arthur P, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

200. Noname, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

201. Pigbaby, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

202. BlinG, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

203. FireCake, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

204. herO CJ, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

205. Swagger, 0/5000000, minimum 175 points, 0%

206. SonGDuri, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

207. Avenge, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

208. zest, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +
0.00% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2950 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
49.94% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

+ Show Spoiler [foreigner hope rating] +
Chance of Blizzcon having a foreigner is 49.9436%, 2497180/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 0 foreigners is 50.0564%, 2502820/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 1 foreigner is 49.9436%, 2497180/5000000
NaNiwa from Sweden has a 49.9436% chance. The chance that NaNiwa is the only foreigner is 49.9436%, 2497180/5000000

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"Expert" mods4ever.com
Mr Mauve
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom386 Posts
September 13 2013 11:55 GMT
#2
you little shiny star, this is brilliant.

Thank you!
Hello! How are you today?
Caladan
Profile Joined May 2008
Germany1238 Posts
September 13 2013 12:01 GMT
#3
Thanks for your work!

That said (not a criticism in general) probabilities don't really have anything to do with reality. Especially these don't lead to any predictions one could make. SC2 is just too dependend on randomness and how a player is playing on a certain day... it's way too complex, with too many factores involved, to be predicted (see all those "upsets" happening in every league at the moment). So probabilities are nice, but they have, in my opinion, zero to do with reality. But that's a bit of a general problem of stochastics/mathematics - pretending the world is not as complex as in reality it is.

But thanks for your contribution nevertheless.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 13 2013 12:04 GMT
#4
On September 13 2013 21:01 Caladan wrote:
Thanks for your work!

That said (not a criticism in general) probabilities don't really have anything to do with reality. Especially these don't lead to any predictions one could make. SC2 is just too dependend on randomness and how a player is playing on a certain day... it's way too complex, with too many factores involved, to be predicted (see all those "upsets" happening in every league at the moment). So probabilities are nice, but they have, in my opinion, zero to do with reality. But that's a bit of a general problem of stochastics/mathematics - pretending the world is not as complex as in reality it is.

But thanks for your contribution nevertheless.

I agree, haha, and this is why I included the events which help/hurt them qualifying for blizzcon. These will especially become more clear as we move forward with this WCS Season, for example at the season finals you might see that Flash MUST get at least 4th place to qualify (I didn't check if this is true, just an example).
"Expert" mods4ever.com
TheBloodyDwarf
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
Finland7524 Posts
September 13 2013 12:07 GMT
#5
I have saw this sometime ago already? Something 2 weeks ago I saw this in TL
Fusilero: "I still can't believe he did that, like dude what the fuck there's fandom and then there's what he did like holy shit. I still see it when I close my eyes." <- reaction to the original drunk santa post which later caught on
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
September 13 2013 12:07 GMT
#6
I still don't understand the "events" part - how do you chose which position to you single out? Take Revival for example: why just 16th places? Or does it mean 16th or better? The chance that someone gets an exact position is very small. Also, it would be helpful if you show not absolute, but relative values, because in this way you have to divide the numbers to see if the probabilities after the event are better or worse than overall.

This whole ordeal is very similiar to what I do at work at the moment: there is a shitload of simulated data and it is very diificult to look at them in a consistent way to extract sensible information. Thus, barring the almost 100%/0% people, the most valuable is actually the cutoff table, that was a briliant idea to include. You can see how the probability folds wuickly around the border area beteween 3000-3200 - it's kind of what you would expect naively, but here we see that the guess is right.

This will be getting more and more interesting with every match played!
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
JKM
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark419 Posts
September 13 2013 12:08 GMT
#7
Wow this is really awesome. Most of all I like the point cutoff table. It has annoyed me plenty when casters would talk about players being in trouble regarding blizzcon, when in fact they were just pulling numbers from their ass!

It will be interesting to see how real life compares to Aligulac-Monte Carlo simulaitons :-).
1338, one upping 1337
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 13 2013 12:12 GMT
#8
On September 13 2013 21:07 opisska wrote:
I still don't understand the "events" part - how do you chose which position to you single out? Take Revival for example: why just 16th places? Or does it mean 16th or better? The chance that someone gets an exact position is very small. Also, it would be helpful if you show not absolute, but relative values, because in this way you have to divide the numbers to see if the probabilities after the event are better or worse than overall.

This whole ordeal is very similiar to what I do at work at the moment: there is a shitload of simulated data and it is very diificult to look at them in a consistent way to extract sensible information. Thus, barring the almost 100%/0% people, the most valuable is actually the cutoff table, that was a briliant idea to include. You can see how the probability folds wuickly around the border area beteween 3000-3200 - it's kind of what you would expect naively, but here we see that the guess is right.

This will be getting more and more interesting with every match played!

It does single out individual placings. I had it grouping the placings before like 16th to 4th place, but the code got kinda weird sometimes so I took it out for now. I may switch to using relative %s, if you guys can think of a good way to word the text for the events that would be helpful
"Expert" mods4ever.com
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
September 13 2013 12:14 GMT
#9
Wow, so many simulations. A miracle Aligulac didn't go down during that quasi-ddos! :o
But great job!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 13 2013 12:14 GMT
#10
On September 13 2013 21:07 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:
I have saw this sometime ago already? Something 2 weeks ago I saw this in TL

yes you might have, I was posting it in the background a bit as I was working on it
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-13 12:16:03
September 13 2013 12:14 GMT
#11
On September 13 2013 21:14 JustPassingBy wrote:
Wow, so many simulations. A miracle Aligulac didn't go down during that quasi-ddos! :o
But great job!

It actually just loads the rating for each player, and then does the win% calculations on its own. But before I did that, just caching results of individual matches, it took about 10,000 http requests, and like 6 hours, to run a simulation. When I added in IEM it got way worse because it picked random players.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
September 13 2013 12:16 GMT
#12
On September 13 2013 21:12 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2013 21:07 opisska wrote:
I still don't understand the "events" part - how do you chose which position to you single out? Take Revival for example: why just 16th places? Or does it mean 16th or better? The chance that someone gets an exact position is very small. Also, it would be helpful if you show not absolute, but relative values, because in this way you have to divide the numbers to see if the probabilities after the event are better or worse than overall.

This whole ordeal is very similiar to what I do at work at the moment: there is a shitload of simulated data and it is very diificult to look at them in a consistent way to extract sensible information. Thus, barring the almost 100%/0% people, the most valuable is actually the cutoff table, that was a briliant idea to include. You can see how the probability folds wuickly around the border area beteween 3000-3200 - it's kind of what you would expect naively, but here we see that the guess is right.

This will be getting more and more interesting with every match played!

It does single out individual placings. I had it grouping the placings before like 16th to 4th place, but the code got kinda weird sometimes so I took it out for now. I may switch to using relative %s, if you guys can think of a good way to word the text for the events that would be helpful


And I just realised how dumb I am, 16th place is not that unlikely in a tournament that doesn't do placement matches for losers ...

As for the text, the information about percent not qualifying is actually redundant (also, the initial information states only the positive chance, which already a good choice), I would put somethink like

"This happens in X% and changes his probability to qualify to Y% "

where Y is obviously the relative percentage (one could be fancy and say an estimate of the conditional probability) when "this" happens.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
September 13 2013 12:23 GMT
#13
On September 13 2013 21:14 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2013 21:14 JustPassingBy wrote:
Wow, so many simulations. A miracle Aligulac didn't go down during that quasi-ddos! :o
But great job!

It actually just loads the rating for each player, and then does the win% calculations on its own. But before I did that, just caching results of individual matches, it took about 10,000 http requests, and like 6 hours, to run a simulation. When I added in IEM it got way worse because it picked random players.

I did wonder what you wanted when you said you wanted to "scrape" aligulac. Good thing you didn't kill our server :D
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
FrodaN
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
754 Posts
September 13 2013 12:24 GMT
#14
Holy shite good work!! :D
DreamOen
Profile Joined March 2010
Spain1400 Posts
September 13 2013 12:28 GMT
#15
This work is impressive, at least we have an % idea now.
Tester | MC | Crank | Flash | Jaedong | MVP
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
September 13 2013 12:30 GMT
#16
isn't ViBE still in premier league?
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
tar
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany991 Posts
September 13 2013 12:38 GMT
#17
this. is.amazing. thx for all the work!
whoever I pick for my anti team turns gosu
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-13 13:03:44
September 13 2013 12:43 GMT
#18
On September 13 2013 21:30 Shellshock wrote:
isn't ViBE still in premier league?

Ahhhh thanks, nice catch, I was using the premier status from before the WCS AM up and downs were completed. Fixing soon.
edit: it won't affect the actual stats much though, besides the fact that he could be selected for the IEM random brackets after I fix this

edit2: ok it will have some slight changes on some numbers, since it the liquidpedia page lists the minimum points they will earn at a tournament before it is done, so I made it exclude those points now since it calculates those by itself, new version will be up in 40 minutes or so
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
September 13 2013 12:44 GMT
#19
On September 13 2013 21:43 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2013 21:30 Shellshock wrote:
isn't ViBE still in premier league?

Ahhhh thanks, nice catch, I was using the premier status from before the WCS AM up and downs were completed. Fixing soon.
edit: it won't affect the actual stats much though, besides the fact that he could be selected for the IEM random brackets after I fix this

huh. idk why he was the first person to stick out to me considering all of wcs am is listed there ^^
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Hryul
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Austria2609 Posts
September 13 2013 13:01 GMT
#20
science. a useful skill toi have, keke!
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