WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 48

Yakikorosu

1203 Posts

October 12 2014 07:23 GMT

#941

On October 12 2014 16:07 Gwavajuice wrote:

Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.

The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.

If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.

Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.

TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.

You're kind of missing the point though: jjakji and Zest should NOT be statistically similar chances to win. Zest's chances to win should be many, many times higher than jjakji's. Watching them play over the last year, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than jjakji (no offense to jjakji, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than 95% of SC2 pros).

Brutaxilos

United States2630 Posts

October 12 2014 07:46 GMT

#942

On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote:
Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances

herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win.

TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win.

MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win.

INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win.

jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win.

Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win.

Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win.

HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win.

Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win.

Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win.

San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win.

Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win.

soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win.

StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win.

Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win.

MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.

Top 20 Blizzcon finals results
+ Show Spoiler +

~ 1.7 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.66 % of the time
Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.62 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.58 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.49 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.47 % of the time
TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.44 % of the time
INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.35 % of the time
jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.33 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.15 % of the time
MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.15 % of the time
MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.14 % of the time
jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.13 % of the time
TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.11 % of the time
MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.08 % of the time
TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.08 % of the time
INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.06 % of the time
INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.05 % of the time
Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.04 % of the time
herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014

~ 1.01 % of the time
jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and
Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

Yakikorosu

1203 Posts

October 12 2014 07:55 GMT

#943

On October 12 2014 16:46 Brutaxilos wrote:

Show nested quote +

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

The predictions are all based on Aligulac ratings, and herO is currently the highest rated player on Aligulac out of the ones that made it to Blizzcon. It's hard to argue too strongly against herO though, sure you can say that Zest and maybe soO and INnoVation are favored over him but between his performances in SPL and KeSPA Cup recently he's got to be up there as a favorite.

Gwavajuice

France1810 Posts

October 12 2014 08:15 GMT

#944

On October 12 2014 16:23 Yakikorosu wrote:

Show nested quote +

Not really, because of the methode of estimate and the thing it's supposed to estimate (winning the whole thing) you can't have anything like "MUCH MUCH MUCH higher chance".

As you can see they're pretty much all between 5% and 10%. Remember that 1/16 = 6.25%, so with standard deviation of the estimates this list pretty much says nothing else :

"Hey guys, they all have 1/16 chance to win, weehee". Edit : well actually herO, MC and JD percentage must actually tell something consistent about their repsective chances to win...

It doesn't really come from Aligulac itself but from the method used and the difficulty to really forecast such stuff. It just doesn't give anything meaningful.

That said I agree that ALigulac gives a lot of credit to jjakji, simply because he has been beating tons and tons of weak euro protosses. His 75,5% win rate against protoss is certainly not realistic against Zest or herO

sharkie

Austria18546 Posts

October 12 2014 09:51 GMT

#945

On October 12 2014 16:46 Brutaxilos wrote:

Show nested quote +

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

maybe the most possible brackets suit herO?
If Zest and soO are eliminated herO will probably win blizzconn, he has the best PvT

ejozl

Denmark3463 Posts

October 12 2014 10:42 GMT

#946

Comes down to who has the best TvT sadly and mb SoO gets a 2nd place.

Gwavajuice

France1810 Posts

October 12 2014 11:57 GMT

#947

On October 12 2014 16:46 Brutaxilos wrote:

Show nested quote +

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

He was best SPL player and kespa cup finalist, plus he has maybe the best PvT in the world.

IMHO having him winning Blizzcon wouldn't come as a huge surprise.

movac

Canada494 Posts

October 12 2014 12:22 GMT

#948

On October 12 2014 16:23 Yakikorosu wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well in our minds, almost everyone will agree that jjakji is probably the weakest player at blizzcon. however keep in mind that these statistics are mathematics based on ratings from aligulac. so it can only be as good as the predictions on the aligulac site. The guys working on the aligulac site are already aware of the issue of foreign Koreans being rated too highly from farming Europeans.

frogrubdown

1266 Posts

October 12 2014 15:29 GMT

#949

On October 12 2014 16:55 Yakikorosu wrote:

Show nested quote +

On October 12 2014 16:46 Brutaxilos wrote:

On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote:
Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances

herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win.

TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win.

MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win.

INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win.

jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win.

Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win.

Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win.

HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win.

Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win.

Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win.

San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win.

Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win.

soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win.

StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win.

Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win.

MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.

Top 20 Blizzcon finals results
+ Show Spoiler +

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

It also doesn't help the best players' odds that this happens in the plurality blizzcon bracket:

#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation

That quarter-bracket

The_Templar

your Country52797 Posts

October 12 2014 15:35 GMT

#950

On October 13 2014 00:29 frogrubdown wrote:

Show nested quote +

On October 12 2014 16:55 Yakikorosu wrote:

On October 12 2014 16:46 Brutaxilos wrote:

On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote:
Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances

herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win.

TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win.

MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win.

INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win.

jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win.

Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win.

Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win.

HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win.

Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win.

Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win.

San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win.

Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win.

soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win.

StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win.

Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win.

MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.

Top 20 Blizzcon finals results
+ Show Spoiler +

Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.

It also doesn't help the best players' odds that this happens in the plurality blizzcon bracket:

#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation

That quarter-bracket

That's supposed to be the semifinals not the RO16 matches >.>

plotspot

800 Posts

October 12 2014 20:40 GMT

#951

Well, obviously the problem with aligular rating is that it takes too much from the past into account, so the current form is not really well-reflected. It also assumes that everybody goes into every match with the same attitude, but this is also not correct.

Thrillz

4313 Posts

October 12 2014 23:19 GMT

#952

Hyun out? What's the MU chances now?

Die4Ever

United States17721 Posts

October 12 2014 23:21 GMT

#953

On October 13 2014 08:19 Thrillz wrote:
Hyun out? What's the MU chances now?

running now, should be ready in a minute

sharkie

Austria18546 Posts

October 12 2014 23:23 GMT

#954

How can Hyun losing have any impact on the MU chances? He already was #1..?

Die4Ever

United States17721 Posts

October 12 2014 23:24 GMT

#955

After Heart vs Hyun
+ Show Spoiler [4 Possible Blizzcon Brackets] +

4 possible brackets (down from 5)

~ 34.5384 % chance
#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Polt vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

~ 27.096 % chance
#1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 San vs #12 herO
#4 MC vs #13 Classic

#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

~ 19.545 % chance
#1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Bomber vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Polt vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

~ 18.8206 % chance
#1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 San vs #12 herO
#4 MC vs #13 Classic

#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 80.47 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 61.64 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 54.07 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 54.07 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 45.93 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 45.93 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 45.93 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 38.36 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 34.54 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 34.54 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 27.09 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 19.53 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 19.53 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 19.53 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 18.83 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 12 2014 23:24 GMT

#956

When you post the brackets can you label them via finals outcomes like "Heart > Polt, Heart > Bomber, Bomber > Heart, and Polt > Heart"? Or edit the previous post?

Die4Ever

United States17721 Posts

October 12 2014 23:27 GMT

#957

On October 13 2014 08:24 Elite_ wrote:
When you post the brackets can you label them via finals outcomes like "Heart > Polt, Heart > Bomber, Bomber > Heart, and Polt > Heart"?

this isn't automated, but I'm pretty sure it's like this, just doing it quickly

If Bomber wins
~ 34.5384 % chance
#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Polt vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

If Polt wins
~ 27.096 % chance
#1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 San vs #12 herO
#4 MC vs #13 Classic

#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

Heart wins over Bomber
~ 19.545 % chance
#1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Bomber vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Polt vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

Heart wins over Polt
~ 18.8206 % chance
#1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 San vs #12 herO
#4 MC vs #13 Classic

#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 12 2014 23:31 GMT

#958

On October 13 2014 08:27 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

Thanks! I guess I'm cheering for a Heart > Bomber finals. That bracket gives me the least amount of players I like going up against each other at BlizzCon.

Thrillz

4313 Posts

October 12 2014 23:59 GMT

#959

Interesting scenarios.

Die4Ever

United States17721 Posts

October 13 2014 01:34 GMT

#960

2 possible brackets

If Bomber wins
~ 63.9349 % chance
#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Polt vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

If Heart wins
~ 36.0651 % chance
#1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Bomber vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Polt vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation
------------------

~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 100 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 100 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 63.95 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 63.95 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 63.95 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 63.95 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.05 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.05 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.05 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.

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