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WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 47
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 12 2014 12:50 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever what you think of the top 16 that we would have with just wcs points gained within wcs (this doesn't count if hero wins xD no Jaedong, +Maru, +Heart, +Pigbaby, +Rain, +Golden all sounds good except no Life and no Taeja | ||
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pure.Wasted
Canada4701 Posts
On October 12 2014 12:52 Die4Ever wrote: no Jaedong, +Maru, +Heart, +Pigbaby, +Rain, +Golden all sounds good except no Life and no Taeja And we're gonna need Life to kick some serious ass this Blizzcon if we want to see ZvPs and TvZs. | ||
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Bagration
United States18282 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Possible Blizzcon Brackets] + 9 possible brackets (down from 18) ~ 13.9947 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 13.969 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 12.7641 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 11.8378 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 11.7625 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 11.4559 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 11.4314 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 6.9617 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 5.8229 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ Possible first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 71.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.71 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 50.01 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 49.99 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.45 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.29 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.8 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.75 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.54 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.56 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.23 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.22 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.89 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.73 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.81 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On October 12 2014 13:28 SNSeigifried wrote: Why is hero not guarantee 100% for seed #12??? He should be, it's a tie but Jjakji wins the tiebreaker afaik On October 12 2014 13:29 Die4Ever wrote: how is the tie breaker between CJ herO and jjakji handled? is jjakji given the #11 seed over herO? Yes, he has more WCS points from WCS region tournaments | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 12 2014 13:29 The_Templar wrote: He should be, it's a tie but Jjakji wins the tiebreaker afaik Yes, he has more WCS points from WCS region tournaments ok ty, running a quick fix | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
5 possible brackets (down from 18) ~ 28.0477 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 23.5636 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 22.8284 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic #6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 13.914 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ ~ 11.6463 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic #6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------ Possible first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 71.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 62.52 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 53.57 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 53.57 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 37.48 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.57 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.59 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.83 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.89 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.68 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. | ||
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Yorkie
United States12612 Posts
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pure.Wasted
Canada4701 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 12 2014 13:42 Yorkie wrote: How is Life vs Zest such a high percent? If Bomber beats Polt tomorrow won't it stay Polt vs Life and Innovation vs Zest? Bomber can also pass Zest | ||
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Yorkie
United States12612 Posts
Damnit can we rig this so they both lose? I really don't want Life to play Zest  | ||
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Yorkie
United States12612 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
  herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win.  TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win.  HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.Top 20 Blizzcon finals results + Show Spoiler + ~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
MC ~ 68.33 % of the time StarDust ~ 55.3 % of the time San ~ 55.18 % of the time Jaedong ~ 54.49 % of the time soO ~ 53.84 % of the time Life ~ 51.97 % of the time HyuN ~ 49.03 % of the time Zest ~ 48.79 % of the time Bomber ~ 48.67 % of the time Classic ~ 47.33 % of the time INnoVation ~ 47.23 % of the time jjakji ~ 46.71 % of the time Polt ~ 46.33 % of the time TaeJa ~ 46.16 % of the time MMA ~ 44.7 % of the time herO ~ 35.93 % of the time | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/FA1IN3J.png?1) | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second. | ||
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Gwavajuice
France1810 Posts
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous. Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second. Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval. The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant. If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value. Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision. TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant. | ||
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