EPTOn September 21 2014 05:58 The_Templar wrote:
He had to get past the group stage which he didn't.
He had to get past the group stage which he didn't.
Yes but I don't get how you can lose 55 % for one event.
WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 32
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Aeromi
France14463 Posts
Yes but I don't get how you can lose 55 % for one event. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 21 2014 05:59 Aeromi wrote: Yes but I don't get how you can lose 55 % for one event. He had to get past the group stage in order to get enough points to likely qualify and he had a 57%ish chance of doing that. However, now he probably won't have enough points. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 21 2014 05:58 Aeromi wrote: Why is sOs at 3% when he was at ~60% at the start of the event. Let's say you have 1 match that determines it all for you (this is basically how it was for sOs). If you have a 50% chance to win the match, and your chances go to 100% when you win and 0% when you lose, then your current Blizzcon chances are 50%. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
WCS Predictor 2014 Red Bull Washington Semifinals + Show Spoiler [Changes This Tournament] + Biggest Winners   Jaedong went up by ~ 14.48 %, going from ~ 60.34 % to ~ 74.82 % Snute went up by ~ 13.57 %, going from ~ 49.35 % to ~ 62.93 % soO went up by ~ 8.28 %, going from ~ 62.36 % to ~ 70.64 %  MMA went up by ~ 4.94 %, going from ~ 62.35 % to ~ 67.29 %  herO went up by ~ 3.83 %, going from ~ 93.95 % to ~ 97.77 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + Life went up by ~ 2.71 %, going from ~ 95.91 % to ~ 98.62 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.1 %, going from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 13.79 % Heart went up by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 5.05 % to ~ 6.17 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 10.79 % Classic went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 98.94 % to ~ 99.76 % HuK went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.17 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 14.02 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 1.39 % HerO went up by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 8.18 % Golden went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 3.39 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 11.13 % to ~ 11.32 % Cure went up by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.19 %Biggest Loser sOs went down by ~ 55.3 %, going from ~ 58.8 % to ~ 3.5 %WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.65 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.66 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.9 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.99 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Top 25 Chances
Starts in + Show Spoiler [Polt, Bomber in Red Bull Washington] + Red Bull Washington - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 50.09 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 49.91 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 49.91 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 50.09 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [Cure, Trap in Red Bull Washington] + Red Bull Washington - Cure is at ~ 0.19 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 53.52 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.33 %.~ 46.48 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 46.48 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 53.52 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Winning Chances Polt has a ~ 28.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Cure has a ~ 27.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.61 % Bomber has a ~ 27.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 16.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
-Cure wins Redbull (duh) -Cure wins GSL (duh) -sOs loses in the group stages of redbull (already happened) -sOs doesn't go to dreamhack -MMA doesn't make it to the RO8 of WCS EU -Pigbaby doesn't make it to the finals of WCS AM -Bunny doesn't make it past the RO8 of WCS EU OR Bunny doesn't make it past the RO4 and doesn't win Dreamhack OR Bunny doesn't win WCS EU and doesn't get top 4 in Dreamhack -Scarlett/Heart/YoDa/Golden/HuK/HerO don't win their regions IF all this happens, he ties with sOs for 16th. | ||
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
On September 21 2014 10:03 The_Templar wrote: For those of you wondering, here's what has to happen for Cure to go to blizzcon, assuming no other tournaments are announced and he doesn't go to Dreamhack. ALL of these have to happen. -Cure wins Redbull (duh) -Cure wins GSL (duh) -sOs loses in the group stages of redbull (already happened) -sOs doesn't go to dreamhack -MMA doesn't make it to the RO8 of WCS EU -Pigbaby doesn't make it to the finals of WCS AM -Bunny doesn't make it past the RO8 of WCS EU OR Bunny doesn't make it past the RO4 and doesn't win Dreamhack OR Bunny doesn't win WCS EU and doesn't get top 4 in Dreamhack -Scarlett/Heart/YoDa/Golden/HuK/HerO don't win their regions IF all this happens, he ties with sOs for 16th. So what you're saying is I should put money down on him making it? | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 21 2014 10:05 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: So what you're saying is I should put money down on him making it? Put like 5 dollars on and get really good odds on it. It's more likely than it looks. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent. I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL. I wouldn't exactly call Flash, Rain and sOs as individual league slouches. The only player on that list who isn't good at individual leagues is Stats. In terms of giving undeserved points, the structure of certain tournaments like IEM and Dreamhack is worse than any possible Proleague points. | ||
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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brickrd
United States4894 Posts
On September 21 2014 11:57 andrewlt wrote: I wouldn't exactly call Flash, Rain and sOs as individual league slouches. The only player on that list who isn't good at individual leagues is Stats. In terms of giving undeserved points, the structure of certain tournaments like IEM and Dreamhack is worse than any possible Proleague points. winning a 1v1 against anyone good enough to play in proleague is certainly as impressive as beating some foreigner or mc or hyun or something in a foreign tournament, and its not like blizzard is going to give out 1000 points per single win its stupid to treat proleague as any different when its a higher caliber of play than anything foreign | ||
digmouse
China6333 Posts
On September 21 2014 14:17 Salient wrote: Is sOs definitely not going to Dreamhack? It's a pity that he wasn't able to advance today. According to http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/467307-dreamhack-stockholm-full-competitor-list he is not, but who know whether Jin Air will send him, since soO is almost guaranteed to drop out due to conflicts with GSL. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Starts in Cure, Bomber in Red Bull Washington - Cure is at ~ 0.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 52.22 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.66 %.~ 47.78 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 47.78 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 52.22 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.Here are the 10 events that give Cure the best Blizzcon chances. ~ 0.09 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 29.01 % ~ 0.14 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 24.18 % ~ 0.15 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 and Golden wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.92 % ~ 0.29 % of the time Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Cure wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.54 % ~ 0.43 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.43 % ~ 0.24 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.34 % ~ 0.28 % of the time Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Cure wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 13.22 % ~ 0.11 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.95 % ~ 0.16 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.95 % ~ 0.2 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.94 % | ||
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sharkie
Austria18772 Posts
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent. I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL. herO top2 in PL and top2 on Cheren's list Is he god?  | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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xYc
Austria75 Posts
So how do you determine a new holder? | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 22 2014 05:22 xYc wrote: I don't know if that has happened before, but your #1 Headband holder has retired (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/467520-effort-retires). So how do you determine a new holder? Effort likes to retire once he's at the top I guess. | ||
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AWalker9
United Kingdom7229 Posts
On September 21 2014 14:51 digmouse wrote: According to http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/467307-dreamhack-stockholm-full-competitor-list he is not, but who know whether Jin Air will send him, since soO is almost guaranteed to drop out due to conflicts with GSL. Not if GOM switch the RO4 matches. If soO plays Zest on wednesday he could quite conceivably go to Stockholm. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 22 2014 05:22 xYc wrote: I don't know if that has happened before, but your #1 Headband holder has retired (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/467520-effort-retires). So how do you determine a new holder? Hmmm it might not matter what I do with it since it's unlikely there will be another #1 vs #2 match anyways. I could give it back to sOs who was the previous holder. How does the Unofficial World Champion handle retirements? I'll probably just leave it with Effort for this year. Hopefully next year the headbands are more successful, since I'll be doing 4 instead of just 2 there should be more movement of the #1. | ||
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Boucot
France15997 Posts
On September 22 2014 05:44 Die4Ever wrote: Hmmm it might not matter what I do with it since it's unlikely there will be another #1 vs #2 match anyways. I could give it back to sOs who was the previous holder. How does the Unofficial World Champion handle retirements? I'll probably just leave it with Effort for this year. Hopefully next year the headbands are more successful, since I'll be doing 4 instead of just 2 there should be more movement of the #1. Civil war IIRC. | ||
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