Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 37

MLG John

United States34 Posts

October 14 2013 03:49 GMT

#721

First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.

MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.

First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.

MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.

I hope this helps.

AySz88

United States83 Posts

October 14 2013 04:15 GMT

#722

On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote: I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC....

(edit: Oops, I reversed this and said "0 out of 3 million" instead of "3 million out of 3 million"; the basic idea's the same though.)

I believe there isn't any clinch math being attempted, and in a Monte Carlo style simulation, saying "0 out of 3 million" is about literally saying that the simulation got 0 matching samples in 3 million attempts. The 95% confidence interval for the "actual" probability (i.e. if it had been calculated analytically, by, say, adding up all the possibilities like your example no matter how remote) is "somewhere between 0 and 0.000123%". In other words, anybody with less than 0.0002ish% probability would likely show up as a zero, even if it weren't a clinch, simply because that's not probable enough to get one scenario to show up in 3 million attempts.

Calculated with the binofit function in MATLAB; command is: [estimate,interval] = binofit(0, 3e6)

Die4Ever

United States17725 Posts

October 14 2013 04:27 GMT

#723

On October 14 2013 13:15 AySz88 wrote:

Show nested quote +

This is correct. Can anyone figure out the math for how many different possible ways the season can play out from now? WCS AM still being in the ro16 really makes it a huge number.

Also check the one where all players are equal.

10. MC, 2999997/3000000, minimum 3775 points, needs at least 3775 points, 99.9999%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.007% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.083%.

-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 2.350% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 6.262% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 50.014% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.013% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.501%.

-------------------------------------------Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.211% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.984%.

-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 3.117% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.186% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.964%.

-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.354% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.981%.

-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 0.711% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.991%.

-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 4.691% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.998%.

-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 4.670% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 9.373% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------Apocalypse gets 4th place in America Placement
This happens 12.491% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 6.250% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 99.999%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 49.972% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

-------------------------------------------MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 50.029% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

-------------------------------------------Hack gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 50.034% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

-------------------------------------------Sen gets 4th place in America Premier
This happens 12.506% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

-------------------------------------------Jaedong gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 49.982% of the time. When it does, it decreases MC's chances to 100.000%.

Die4Ever

United States17725 Posts

October 14 2013 05:01 GMT

#724

So I ran one with 30 million samples, without aligulac, and without events because I don't have 50 GB of ram nor do I want to spend days running a simulation lol. Anyways here's what it says -

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +

1. INnoVation, 30000000/30000000, minimum 6025 points, needs at least 6025 points, 100%

2. Soulkey WJS, 30000000/30000000, minimum 4750 points, needs at least 4750 points, 100%

3. Jaedong, 30000000/30000000, minimum 4625 points, needs at least 4625 points, 100%

4. Bomber, 30000000/30000000, minimum 4425 points, needs atleast 4425 points, 100%

5. TaeJa, 30000000/30000000, minimum 4125 points, needs at least 4125 points, 100%

6. HerO Liquid, 30000000/30000000, minimum 3925 points, needs at least 3925 points, 100%

7. Polt, 30000000/30000000, minimum 3850 points, needs at least 3850 points, 100%

8. MMA Acer, 30000000/30000000, minimum 3850 points, needs at least 3850 points, 100%

9. sOs, 29999992/30000000, minimum 3800 points, needs at least 3800 points, 100%

10. MC, 29999985/30000000, minimum 3775 points, needs at least 3775 points, 99.9999%

11. Maru Prime, 29999842/30000000, minimum 3675 points, needs at least 3675 points, 99.9995%

12. aLive, 29930992/30000000, minimum 3600 points, needs at least 3600 points, 99.77%

13. Mvp IM, 28866036/30000000, minimum 3575 points, needs at least 3575 points, 96.2201%

14. duckdeok, 27530032/30000000, minimum 3300 points, needs at least 3300 points, 91.7668%

15. Scarlett, 9289904/30000000, minimum 2275 points, needs at least 3300 points, 30.9663%

16. soO, 8995157/30000000, minimum 2300 points, needs at least 3300 points, 29.9839%

17. HyuN, 8665168/30000000, minimum 2325 points, needs at least 3250 points, 28.8839%

18. NaNiwa, 7380200/30000000, minimum 3200 points, needs at least 3200 points, 24.6007%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 5% chances] +

19. Dear STX, 4087571/30000000, minimum 2500 points, needs at least 3250 points, 13.6252%

20. VortiX, 3749263/30000000, minimum 2400 points, needs at least 3650 points, 12.4975%

21. Revival, 3605056/30000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3175 points, 12.0169%

22. Oz, 3019900/30000000, minimum 2350 points, needs at least 3350 points, 10.0663%

23. Trap, 1874824/30000000, minimum 2450 points, needs at least 3950 points, 6.24941%

24. Genius, 1874328/30000000, minimum 2300 points, needs at least 3800 points, 6.24776%

25. CranK Axiom, 1796452/30000000, minimum 2500 points, needs at least 3250 points, 5.98817%

26. MacSed, 1595414/30000000, minimum 2450 points, needs at least 3200 points, 5.31805%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 1% chances] +

27. HuK, 1380484/30000000, minimum 2425 points, needs at least 3175 points, 4.60161%

28. NesTea, 1347772/30000000, minimum 2350 points, needs at least 3350 points, 4.49257%

29. Apocalypse, 1215985/30000000, minimum 2500 points, needs at least 3250 points, 4.05328%

30. Sen, 1075308/30000000, minimum 2325 points, needs at least 3325 points, 3.58436%

31. Heart, 990851/30000000, minimum 2500 points, needs at least 3250 points, 3.30284%

32. Hack, 909044/30000000, minimum 2450 points, needs at least 3200 points, 3.03015%

33. ByuL, 820440/30000000, minimum 2350 points, needs at least 3600 points, 2.7348%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0.0001% chances] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0% chances] +

34. TLO, 0/30000000, 0%

35. Stephano, 0/30000000, 0%

36. Alicia, 0/30000000, 0%

37. Symbol, 0/30000000, 0%

38. Grubby, 0/30000000, 0%

39. KangHo, 0/30000000, 0%

40. Ryung, 0/30000000, 0%

41. DIMAGA, 0/30000000, 0%

42. LucifroN, 0/30000000, 0%

43. Happy Empire, 0/30000000, 0%

44. Leenock, 0/30000000, 0%

45. Welmu, 0/30000000, 0%

46. StarDust, 0/30000000, 0%

47. PartinG, 0/30000000, 0%

48. Flash KT, 0/30000000, 0%

49. BabyKnight, 0/30000000, 0%

50. GuMiho, 0/30000000, 0%

51. TitaN RoX.Kis, 0/30000000, 0%

52. HasuObs, 0/30000000, 0%

53. Snute, 0/30000000, 0%

54. TheStC, 0/30000000, 0%

55. Life, 0/30000000, 0%

56. SuperNova, 0/30000000, 0%

57. viOLet, 0/30000000, 0%

58. SaSe, 0/30000000, 0%

59. RorO, 0/30000000, 0%

60. Minigun, 0/30000000, 0%

61. Jim CN, 0/30000000, 0%

62. mOOnGLaDe, 0/30000000, 0%

63. Suppy, 0/30000000, 0%

64. DongRaeGu, 0/30000000, 0%

65. Sage, 0/30000000, 0%

66. ThorZaIN, 0/30000000, 0%

67. hyvaa, 0/30000000, 0%

68. Bbyong, 0/30000000, 0%

69. KeeN, 0/30000000, 0%

70. sLivko, 0/30000000, 0%

71. SortOf, 0/30000000, 0%

72. Flying, 0/30000000, 0%

73. Squirtle, 0/30000000, 0%

74. ToD, 0/30000000, 0%

75. Dayshi, 0/30000000, 0%

76. DeMusliM, 0/30000000, 0%

77. Shuttle T, 0/30000000, 0%

78. Tefel, 0/30000000, 0%

79. Goswser, 0/30000000, 0%

80. MaNa, 0/30000000, 0%

81. MajOr, 0/30000000, 0%

82. Ret, 0/30000000, 0%

83. Shine Samsung, 0/30000000, 0%

84. Bunny, 0/30000000, 0%

85. puCK, 0/30000000, 0%

86. ViBE, 0/30000000, 0%

87. Bly, 0/30000000, 0%

88. Curious, 0/30000000, 0%

89. FanTaSy, 0/30000000, 0%

90. JangBi, 0/30000000, 0%

91. Nerchio, 0/30000000, 0%

92. TRUE JinAir, 0/30000000, 0%

93. YugiOh, 0/30000000, 0%

94. HwangSin, 0/30000000, 0%

95. Kas, 0/30000000, 0%

96. Strelok, 0/30000000, 0%

97. Top CN, 0/30000000, 0%

98. theognis, 0/30000000, 0%

99. uzer, 0/30000000, 0%

100. YongHwa, 0/30000000, 0%

101. elfi, 0/30000000, 0%

102. Neeb, 0/30000000, 0%

103. SjoW, 0/30000000, 0%

104. Sleep, 0/30000000, 0%

105. TAiLS MVP, 0/30000000, 0%

106. KrasS, 0/30000000, 0%

107. Reality, 0/30000000, 0%

108. YoDa IM, 0/30000000, 0%

109. ShoWTimE ESC, 0/30000000, 0%

110. Sound T, 0/30000000, 0%

111. Targa, 0/30000000, 0%

112. CoCa, 0/30000000, 0%

113. Feast, 0/30000000, 0%

114. jjakji, 0/30000000, 0%

115. State, 0/30000000, 0%

116. XY, 0/30000000, 0%

117. Creator Prime, 0/30000000, 0%

118. Dream MVP, 0/30000000, 0%

119. EffOrt, 0/30000000, 0%

120. hellokitty, 0/30000000, 0%

121. herO CJ, 0/30000000, 0%

122. KiLLeR Clarity, 0/30000000, 0%

123. MarineKing, 0/30000000, 0%

124. Noname, 0/30000000, 0%

125. Pigbaby, 0/30000000, 0%

126. RagnaroK, 0/30000000, 0%

127. Starbuck, 0/30000000, 0%

128. Beastyqt, 0/30000000, 0%

129. BlinG, 0/30000000, 0%

130. FireCake, 0/30000000, 0%

131. Illusion ROOT, 0/30000000, 0%

132. Savage, 0/30000000, 0%

133. Socke, 0/30000000, 0%

134. Arthur P, 0/30000000, 0%

135. Capoch, 0/30000000, 0%

136. Crazy KT, 0/30000000, 0%

137. Daisy, 0/30000000, 0%

138. First IM, 0/30000000, 0%

139. Harstem, 0/30000000, 0%

140. Hurricane, 0/30000000, 0%

141. Puzzle, 0/30000000, 0%

142. qxc, 0/30000000, 0%

143. Siw, 0/30000000, 0%

144. Stats, 0/30000000, 0%

145. Super MVP, 0/30000000, 0%

146. Swagger, 0/30000000, 0%

147. Verdi, 0/30000000, 0%

148. Fenix, 0/30000000, 0%

149. IdrA, 0/30000000, 0%

150. Maker, 0/30000000, 0%

151. monchi, 0/30000000, 0%

152. SonGDuri, 0/30000000, 0%

153. BBoongBBoong, 0/30000000, 0%

154. Last STX, 0/30000000, 0%

155. Tilea, 0/30000000, 0%

156. Avenge, 0/30000000, 0%

157. Drunkenboi, 0/30000000, 0%

158. iaguz, 0/30000000, 0%

159. JYP, 0/30000000, 0%

160. MyuNgSiK, 0/30000000, 0%

161. Seed, 0/30000000, 0%

162. ByuN, 0/30000000, 0%

163. Center, 0/30000000, 0%

164. ParalyzE, 0/30000000, 0%

165. Ruin, 0/30000000, 0%

166. San, 0/30000000, 0%

167. SeleCT, 0/30000000, 0%

168. AlaStOr, 0/30000000, 0%

169. Bails, 0/30000000, 0%

170. Bang, 0/30000000, 0%

171. Bischu, 0/30000000, 0%

172. Bunny CJ, 0/30000000, 0%

173. DarkHydra, 0/30000000, 0%

174. Golden, 0/30000000, 0%

175. Ian, 0/30000000, 0%

176. Jogginghose, 0/30000000, 0%

177. MorroW, 0/30000000, 0%

178. NightEnD, 0/30000000, 0%

179. Sonder, 0/30000000, 0%

180. Trust, 0/30000000, 0%

181. Xenocider, 0/30000000, 0%

182. ALBM, 0/30000000, 0%

183. Argo, 0/30000000, 0%

184. Balloon, 0/30000000, 0%

185. Billowy, 0/30000000, 0%

186. Dark, 0/30000000, 0%

187. Hydra, 0/30000000, 0%

188. Journey, 0/30000000, 0%

189. JuNi, 0/30000000, 0%

190. Kop, 0/30000000, 0%

191. LabyRinth, 0/30000000, 0%

192. Mamuri, 0/30000000, 0%

193. Noblesse, 0/30000000, 0%

194. Pet, 0/30000000, 0%

195. s2, 0/30000000, 0%

196. sC, 0/30000000, 0%

197. Shark Samsung, 0/30000000, 0%

198. sKyHigh, 0/30000000, 0%

199. Sniper, 0/30000000, 0%

200. Solar, 0/30000000, 0%

201. Sparta, 0/30000000, 0%

202. Terminator, 0/30000000, 0%

203. TurN, 0/30000000, 0%

204. VINES, 0/30000000, 0%

205. ZerO, 0/30000000, 0%

206. zest, 0/30000000, 0%

207. Rain SKT1, 0/30000000, 0%

208. ForGG, 0/30000000, 0%

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +

0.00% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2950 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
25.39% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
59.04% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
61.18% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
66.03% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.80% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.92% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

+ Show Spoiler [foreigner hope rating] +

Chance of Blizzcon having a foreigner is 68.2139%, 20464158/30000000
Scarlett from Canada has a 30.9663% chance. The chance that Scarlett is the only foreigner is 21.7345%, 6520345/30000000
NaNiwa from Sweden has a 24.6007% chance. The chance that NaNiwa is the only foreigner is 18.6539%, 5596163/30000000
VortiX from Spain has a 12.4975% chance. The chance that VortiX is the only foreigner is 7.04515%, 2113546/30000000
MacSed from China has a 5.31805% chance. The chance that MacSed is the only foreigner is 3.10954%, 932862/30000000
HuK from Canada has a 4.60161% chance. The chance that HuK is the only foreigner is 2.58269%, 774808/30000000
Sen from Taiwan has a 3.58436% chance. The chance that Sen is the only foreigner is 1.91893%, 575678/30000000

I can't wait until WCS AM finishes the ro16 lol.

Gatesleeper

Canada300 Posts

October 14 2013 06:21 GMT

#725

MC is so fucking done. sOs better watch his ass too.

Plasmid

57 Posts

October 14 2013 07:07 GMT

#726

On October 14 2013 15:21 Gatesleeper wrote:
MC is so fucking done. sOs better watch his ass too.

attaboy. that's how stats were intended to be used!

flawed_halo

40 Posts

October 14 2013 07:17 GMT

#727

Nestea has a 1.52% chance of making it to Blizzcon.

Never tell me the odds...

TheDougler

Canada8306 Posts

October 14 2013 08:11 GMT

#728

So is there any chance of both Scarlett and Naniwa making it to blizzcon?

nimdil

Poland3752 Posts

October 14 2013 08:11 GMT

#729

What are the probs that NaNiwa & Scarlett, NaNiwa & Vortix, Scarlett & Vortix and Scarlett & Vortix & NaNiwa (4 probabilities) will be at Blizzcon?

Vaftrudner

Sweden1185 Posts

October 14 2013 09:05 GMT

#730

On October 14 2013 17:11 TheDougler wrote:
So is there any chance of both Scarlett and Naniwa making it to blizzcon?

Yes, it's not too remote. It's largely out of their hands though. Easily put, if Scarlett gets enough points to push Revival out, Naniwa or Scarlett will have the 16th spot. Then it's just a question of whether or not the other contenders overtake them (the realistic ones are Dear and soO if they do well in the season finals, and Hyun if he gets to the season finals). Vortix, Trap and some others COULD get into top 16, but they would have to pull major upsets.

Prog455

Denmark970 Posts

October 14 2013 09:10 GMT

#731

On October 14 2013 17:11 TheDougler wrote:
So is there any chance of both Scarlett and Naniwa making it to blizzcon?

There is. It would happen in the followin scenario:
- Scarlett makes it to top 6 in NA
- Hyun does NOT make it to top 6 in NA
- SoO finishes 2nd in Korea and does not make it to ro4 in S3 OR wins Korea but lose in the early rounds of S3
- There is no major upsets such as Sen or Vortix winning S3 or Dear winning Korea and S3.

Prog455

Denmark970 Posts

October 14 2013 09:34 GMT

#732

On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.

MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.

First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.

MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.

I hope this helps.

Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not.

Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3.

opisska

Poland8852 Posts

October 14 2013 09:35 GMT

#733

So it looks like it is a battle for two spots between Naniwa, Sacrlett, soO and HyuN ...

... unless somobody unexpected wins the S3 finals, as the poitn system is so top heavy that when you win a season finals, almost nothing else matters

jarod

Romania766 Posts

October 14 2013 09:37 GMT

#734

really nice thread, don`t forget that Revival probably will maintain hes premier league spot, that means he will have also 3200 points, same as naniwa, so hes changes are almost same as nanis.
I just really hope 1 foreigner can make it.
Also, I really like hyun, but I want something like this in TOP6 NA, Polt, Jaedong, Hero, Taeja, Scarllet, Huk, with Jaedong, Hero, Taeja MMA to finish top4 at S3 finals. just a dream

Grovbolle

Denmark3813 Posts

October 14 2013 12:36 GMT

#735

On October 14 2013 18:37 jarod wrote:
really nice thread, don`t forget that Revival probably will maintain hes proleague spot, that means he will have also 3200 points, same as naniwa, so hes changes are almost same as nanis.
I just really hope 1 foreigner can make it.
Also, I really like hyun, but I want something like this in TOP6 NA, Polt, Jaedong, Hero, Taeja, Scarllet, Huk, with Jaedong, Hero, Taeja MMA to finish top4 at S3 finals. just a dream

What does proleague have to do with anything?

jarod

Romania766 Posts

October 14 2013 13:30 GMT

#736

On October 14 2013 21:36 Grovbolle wrote:

Show nested quote +

What does proleague have to do with anything?

Typo, my bad, I meant premier league.

Grovbolle

Denmark3813 Posts

October 14 2013 13:43 GMT

#737

On October 14 2013 22:30 jarod wrote:

Show nested quote +

Typo, my bad, I meant premier league.

Ahh.... Makes more sense :D

Darthsanta13

United States564 Posts

October 14 2013 14:08 GMT

#738

Do we actually know what happens if there's a tie for 16th?

Fjodorov

5007 Posts

October 14 2013 14:12 GMT

#739

On October 14 2013 23:08 Darthsanta13 wrote:
Do we actually know what happens if there's a tie for 16th?

Blizzard should definitely already have relesead this information. But im afraid they havent even considered it as a possible scenario...

magnaflow

Canada1521 Posts

October 14 2013 14:29 GMT

#740

Please for the love of god let a foreigner make it through, Scarlett or Naniwa (or both) would be fucking awesome. They could at least compete with the Korean powerhouses that will be there

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