Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation

Die4Ever

United States17662 Posts

September 13 2013 11:50 GMT

I've been working on a program that calculates each players' chances of going to Blizzcon. It works by running hundreds of thousands of simulations of the tournament brackets using Monte Carlo method(wikipedia it) with the help of Aligulac ratings. Not only does it give % chances, but it also lists events that help or hurt that player's chances in the details section.

-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier
This happens 16.00% of the time. When it does, it increases HyuN's chances to 100.00%.

This means that 16% of the time, HyuN will get 1th place in WCS AM Premier. When he does get 1th place, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon are 100%.

Please note that the percentages are how often something happens in the simulations performed and are not exact(whatever that means). If the simulation says 100% of the time MC qualifies, and it says 15000000/15000000, then it may actually only be 99.99999%. Also consider that qualification chances in an event have a reduced sample size and so have a greater margin of error the less likely that event is.

I will update this a few times a week, and I will update this immediately after big results.

This latest update on Sunday, Oct 27 11:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) includes -
-Season 3 Finals finals set
-Revival with 90% chance to make it top 2 in his challenger group, by popular vote since groups annouced yet
-WCS AM COMPLETED
-GSL COMPLETED with correct results this time lol
-5 million samples for overall, 3 million are used for the event search for speed
-IEM COMPLETED
-bug fix on points awarded for 16th-9th place in IEM
-Revival gets a 24 point bonus 25% of the time, a 26 point bonus the other 25% of the time(0 point bonus other 50%) to do a simple simulation of challenger and avoid tie breakers
-foreigner hope rating!
-Revival replacing ForGG, Hyun replacing Polt, Hack replacing Stardust at IEM
-GSL semifinals and placement matches completed
-further improved formatting and colors!

Chances of Advancing to Blizzcon

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +

1. Soulkey WJS, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6250 points, needs at least 6250 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

Soulkey WJS starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Dear STX
Soulkey WJS loses this match 42.930% of the time, which decreases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.
Soulkey WJS wins this match 57.070% of the time, which increases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.

2. INnoVation, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6100 points, needs at least 6100 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

3. Jaedong, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5650 points, needs at least 5650 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

4. Polt, 5000000/5000000, minimum 5625 points, needs at least 5625 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

5. HerO Liquid, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4950 points, needs at least 4950 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

6. Maru Prime, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4675 points, needs at least 4675 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

7. Bomber, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4425 points, needs at least 4425 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

8. MMA Acer, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4350 points, needs at least 4350 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

9. MC, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4275 points, needs at least 4275 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

10. TaeJa, 5000000/5000000, minimum 4225 points, needs at least 4225 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

11. sOs, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3850 points, needs at least 3850 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

12. Dear STX, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3750 points, needs at least 3750 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

Dear STX starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Soulkey WJS
Dear STX loses this match 57.070% of the time, which decreases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.
Dear STX wins this match 42.930% of the time, which increases Dear STX's chances to 100.000%.

13. aLive, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3600 points, needs at least 3600 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

14. Mvp IM, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3575 points, needs at least 3575 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

15. duckdeok, 5000000/5000000, minimum 3550 points, needs at least 3550 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

16. NaNiwa, 3560288/5000000, minimum 3200 points, needs at least 3200 points, 71.2058%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 42.930% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 71.199%.

-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 57.070% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 71.204%.

17. Revival, 1439712/5000000, minimum 3199 points, needs at least 3201 points, 28.7942%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 57.070% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 28.796%.

-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Soulkey WJS gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 42.930% of the time. When it does, it increases Revival's chances to 28.801%.

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0.0001% chances] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0% chances] +

18. Socke, 0/5000000, 0%

19. Capoch, 0/5000000, 0%

20. Crazy KT, 0/5000000, 0%

21. Daisy, 0/5000000, 0%

22. Harstem, 0/5000000, 0%

23. Stephano, 0/5000000, 0%

24. Hurricane, 0/5000000, 0%

25. Puzzle, 0/5000000, 0%

26. Siw, 0/5000000, 0%

27. Stats, 0/5000000, 0%

28. RorO, 0/5000000, 0%

29. Verdi, 0/5000000, 0%

30. Ryung, 0/5000000, 0%

31. DIMAGA, 0/5000000, 0%

32. Fenix, 0/5000000, 0%

33. IdrA, 0/5000000, 0%

34. Maker, 0/5000000, 0%

35. Leenock, 0/5000000, 0%

36. monchi, 0/5000000, 0%

37. BBoongBBoong, 0/5000000, 0%

38. Last STX, 0/5000000, 0%

39. Tilea, 0/5000000, 0%

40. Drunkenboi, 0/5000000, 0%

41. iaguz, 0/5000000, 0%

42. JYP, 0/5000000, 0%

43. MyuNgSiK, 0/5000000, 0%

44. Seed, 0/5000000, 0%

45. ByuN, 0/5000000, 0%

46. Center, 0/5000000, 0%

47. ParalyzE, 0/5000000, 0%

48. Snute, 0/5000000, 0%

49. Ruin, 0/5000000, 0%

50. SeleCT, 0/5000000, 0%

51. AlaStOr, 0/5000000, 0%

52. viOLet, 0/5000000, 0%

53. Bails, 0/5000000, 0%

54. Bang, 0/5000000, 0%

55. Bischu, 0/5000000, 0%

56. Bunny CJ, 0/5000000, 0%

57. DarkHydra, 0/5000000, 0%

58. mOOnGLaDe, 0/5000000, 0%

59. Golden, 0/5000000, 0%

60. Ian, 0/5000000, 0%

61. Jogginghose, 0/5000000, 0%

62. MorroW, 0/5000000, 0%

63. NightEnD, 0/5000000, 0%

64. Sonder, 0/5000000, 0%

65. Xenocider, 0/5000000, 0%

66. ALBM, 0/5000000, 0%

67. Argo, 0/5000000, 0%

68. Balloon, 0/5000000, 0%

69. SortOf, 0/5000000, 0%

70. Flying, 0/5000000, 0%

71. Squirtle, 0/5000000, 0%

72. Billowy, 0/5000000, 0%

73. Dayshi, 0/5000000, 0%

74. Dark, 0/5000000, 0%

75. Hydra, 0/5000000, 0%

76. Tefel, 0/5000000, 0%

77. Journey, 0/5000000, 0%

78. MaNa, 0/5000000, 0%

79. JuNi, 0/5000000, 0%

80. Ret, 0/5000000, 0%

81. Kop, 0/5000000, 0%

82. Shine Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

83. Bunny, 0/5000000, 0%

84. LabyRinth, 0/5000000, 0%

85. Mamuri, 0/5000000, 0%

86. Bly, 0/5000000, 0%

87. Noblesse, 0/5000000, 0%

88. FanTaSy, 0/5000000, 0%

89. Pet, 0/5000000, 0%

90. s2, 0/5000000, 0%

91. sC, 0/5000000, 0%

92. Shark Samsung, 0/5000000, 0%

93. sKyHigh, 0/5000000, 0%

94. Sniper, 0/5000000, 0%

95. Solar, 0/5000000, 0%

96. Strelok, 0/5000000, 0%

97. Sparta, 0/5000000, 0%

98. theognis, 0/5000000, 0%

99. uzer, 0/5000000, 0%

100. Terminator, 0/5000000, 0%

101. TurN, 0/5000000, 0%

102. VINES, 0/5000000, 0%

103. SjoW, 0/5000000, 0%

104. ZerO, 0/5000000, 0%

105. Trust, 0/5000000, 0%

106. YoDa IM, 0/5000000, 0%

107. Sound T, 0/5000000, 0%

108. CoCa, 0/5000000, 0%

109. Feast, 0/5000000, 0%

110. XY, 0/5000000, 0%

111. Creator Prime, 0/5000000, 0%

112. EffOrt, 0/5000000, 0%

113. hellokitty, 0/5000000, 0%

114. KiLLeR Clarity, 0/5000000, 0%

115. MarineKing, 0/5000000, 0%

116. RagnaroK, 0/5000000, 0%

117. Beastyqt, 0/5000000, 0%

118. Illusion ROOT, 0/5000000, 0%

119. Savage, 0/5000000, 0%

120. Oz, 0/5000000, minimum 2850 points, 0%

121. Rain SKT1, 0/5000000, minimum 2750 points, 0%

122. ForGG, 0/5000000, minimum 2500 points, 0%

123. Trap, 0/5000000, minimum 2450 points, 0%

124. Scarlett, 0/5000000, minimum 2375 points, 0%

125. HyuN, 0/5000000, minimum 2325 points, 0%

126. soO, 0/5000000, minimum 2300 points, 0%

127. First IM, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

128. TLO, 0/5000000, minimum 2200 points, 0%

129. VortiX, 0/5000000, minimum 2150 points, 0%

130. ByuL, 0/5000000, minimum 2100 points, 0%

131. Alicia, 0/5000000, minimum 1925 points, 0%

132. Symbol, 0/5000000, minimum 1875 points, 0%

133. Life, 0/5000000, minimum 1825 points, 0%

134. Grubby, 0/5000000, minimum 1775 points, 0%

135. KangHo, 0/5000000, minimum 1725 points, 0%

136. Genius, 0/5000000, minimum 1550 points, 0%

137. StarDust, 0/5000000, minimum 1525 points, 0%

138. Hack, 0/5000000, minimum 1450 points, 0%

139. Welmu, 0/5000000, minimum 1375 points, 0%

140. LucifroN, 0/5000000, minimum 1325 points, 0%

141. PartinG, 0/5000000, minimum 1300 points, 0%

142. MacSed, 0/5000000, minimum 1200 points, 0%

143. Happy Empire, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

144. Flash KT, 0/5000000, minimum 1175 points, 0%

145. TitaN RoX.Kis, 0/5000000, minimum 1075 points, 0%

146. SuperNova, 0/5000000, minimum 1000 points, 0%

147. BabyKnight, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

148. CranK Axiom, 0/5000000, minimum 975 points, 0%

149. HuK, 0/5000000, minimum 900 points, 0%

150. HasuObs, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

151. DongRaeGu, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

152. GuMiho, 0/5000000, minimum 875 points, 0%

153. ThorZaIN, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

154. Nerchio, 0/5000000, minimum 850 points, 0%

155. NesTea, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

156. Apocalypse, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

157. TheStC, 0/5000000, minimum 825 points, 0%

158. Heart, 0/5000000, minimum 750 points, 0%

159. Minigun, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

160. Jim CN, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

161. Suppy, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

162. SaSe, 0/5000000, minimum 725 points, 0%

163. Sage, 0/5000000, minimum 700 points, 0%

164. Curious, 0/5000000, minimum 675 points, 0%

165. sLivko, 0/5000000, minimum 650 points, 0%

166. hyvaa, 0/5000000, minimum 625 points, 0%

167. KeeN, 0/5000000, minimum 600 points, 0%

168. Bbyong, 0/5000000, minimum 575 points, 0%

169. Goswser, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

170. Sen, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

171. Targa, 0/5000000, minimum 550 points, 0%

172. elfi, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

173. jjakji, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

174. DeMusliM, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

175. Shuttle T, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

176. ToD, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

177. MajOr, 0/5000000, minimum 525 points, 0%

178. ViBE, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

179. puCK, 0/5000000, minimum 475 points, 0%

180. TRUE JinAir, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

181. YugiOh, 0/5000000, minimum 450 points, 0%

182. Kas, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

183. Sleep, 0/5000000, minimum 425 points, 0%

184. JangBi, 0/5000000, minimum 400 points, 0%

185. Top CN, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

186. HwangSin, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

187. TAiLS MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 375 points, 0%

188. YongHwa, 0/5000000, minimum 350 points, 0%

189. Neeb, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

190. Starbuck, 0/5000000, minimum 325 points, 0%

191. State, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

192. KrasS, 0/5000000, minimum 300 points, 0%

193. Reality, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

194. San, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

195. Super MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

196. ShoWTimE ESC, 0/5000000, minimum 275 points, 0%

197. qxc, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

198. Dream MVP, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

199. Arthur P, 0/5000000, minimum 225 points, 0%

200. Noname, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

201. Pigbaby, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

202. BlinG, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

203. FireCake, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

204. herO CJ, 0/5000000, minimum 200 points, 0%

205. Swagger, 0/5000000, minimum 175 points, 0%

206. SonGDuri, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

207. Avenge, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

208. zest, 0/5000000, minimum 150 points, 0%

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +

0.00% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2950 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
71.21% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

+ Show Spoiler [foreigner hope rating] +

Chance of Blizzcon having a foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 0 foreigners is 28.7942%, 1439712/5000000
Chance of Blizzcon having 1 foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000
NaNiwa from Sweden has a 71.2058% chance. The chance that NaNiwa is the only foreigner is 71.2058%, 3560288/5000000

edit: someone asked for a run where every player is considered equal
+ Show Spoiler [all players equal] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +

1. Soulkey WJS, 5000000/5000000, minimum 6250 points, needs at least 6250 points, 100%
+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] +

Soulkey WJS starts in the round of 2 in Season 3 Finals facing Dear STX
Soulkey WJS loses this match 49.997% of the time, which decreases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.
Soulkey WJS wins this match 50.003% of the time, which increases Soulkey WJS's chances to 100.000%.