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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 01:12 TheBB wrote: He was pretty considerate in his requests. I was a little skeptical too, but it didn't turn out to be a problem. But we do need an API... <3 | ||
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tritonice
United States119 Posts
On September 13 2013 21:01 Caladan wrote: Thanks for your work!  That said (not a criticism in general) probabilities don't really have anything to do with reality. Especially these don't lead to any predictions one could make. SC2 is just too dependend on randomness and how a player is playing on a certain day... it's way too complex, with too many factores involved, to be predicted (see all those "upsets" happening in every league at the moment). So probabilities are nice, but they have, in my opinion, zero to do with reality. But that's a bit of a general problem of stochastics/mathematics - pretending the world is not as complex as in reality it is. But thanks for your contribution nevertheless. This is life in general. My weather report yesterday said I had a 20% chance of rain. It rained. So was it wrong? In my part of the USA (Southeast in the humid summer), there is a 100% chance of warm, humid, turbulent air. Predicting EXACTLY where rain will come OUT of that air is the challenge. So what? Yes, individual players will be difficult to determine (FireCake, you GOT this, man). However, I think it is EXCELLENT analysis that 3,600 is almost guaranteed to get you in. It can provide some motivation for players and may change their focus going in (one of the random factors you reference). It really helps me as a fan understand the implications of DreamHack, IEM, WCS, etc. etc. It would be interesting to match the probabilities shown in this post with the actual final result to determine how "random" the results were. Will there be a surprise or two? Of course. Is TLO going to get in. Certainly not.  My point is, I guess you never watch sport pregame shows or the weather report or any discussion that have probabilities embedded in them. Living day to day with no prior guess as to how it will be must be refreshing! This was a fun exercise, and I appreciate all of the effort that went in to it. EDIT: for clarity. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 01:17 tritonice wrote: This is life in general. My weather report yesterday said I had a 20% chance of rain. It rained. So was it wrong? In my part of the USA (Southeast in the humid summer), there is a 100% chance of warm, humid, turbulent air. Predicting EXACTLY where that will happen is the challenge. So what? Yes, individual players will be difficult to determine (FireCake, you GOT this, man). However, I think it is EXCELLENT analysis that 3,600 is almost guaranteed to get you in. It can provide some motivation for players and may change their focus going in (one of the random factors you reference). It really helps me as a fan understand the implications of DreamHack, IEM, WCS, etc. etc. It would be interesting to match the probabilities shown in this post with the actual final result to determine how "random" the results were. Will there be a surprise or two? Of course. Is TLO going to get in. Certainly not. My point is, I guess you never watch sport pregame shows or the weather report or any discussion that has probabilities embedded in them. This was a fun exercise, and I appreciate all of the effort that went in to it. That would be interesting actually, I'll save the current copy of the OP here lol. + Show Spoiler [current OP] + On September 13 2013 20:50 Die4Ever wrote: I've been working on a program that calculates each players' chances of going to Blizzcon. It works by running hundreds of thousands of simulations of the tournament brackets using Monte Carlo method(wikipedia it) with the help of Aligulac ratings. Not only does it give % chances, but it also lists events that help or hurt that player's chances in the details section. The details section will show events that look like this This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This means that 10.1397% of the time, MMA will get 16th place in the season 3 finals. When he does get 16th place, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon are 74.7506%. I will update a few times a week, and I plan on updating this once during Dreamhack, and once immediately after. This latest update on Friday, Sep 13 3:46pm GMT (GMT+00:00) includes - -WCS NA ro32 groups, with no matches played yet -WCS EU Group F completed -GSL ro16 group selections -random brackets for Dreamhack using the 32 notable players from liquipedia -IEM with the 6 qualified players + 26 random players that are either still in premier league or have at least 1000 WCS points -bug fixes -improved formatting + Show Spoiler [Players with a near 100% chance] + INnoVation 100% 300000/300000, started with 5250 WCS points Jaedong 100% 300000/300000, started with 4325 WCS points Bomber 100% 300000/300000, started with 4250 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players still in Premier League] + Soulkey WJS 99.9997% 299999/300000, started with 3500 WCS points Polt 99.999% 299997/300000, started with 3625 WCS points aLive 99.9843% 299953/300000, started with 3475 WCS points HerO Liquid 99.957% 299871/300000, started with 3400 WCS points TaeJa 99.4207% 298262/300000, started with 3150 WCS points sOs 98.8087% 296426/300000, started with 3000 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 40.1657% of the time and would change sOs's chances to 97.2519% ----sOs gets 16th place in Korea Premier Revival 80.8357% 242507/300000, started with 2900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.1423% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 85.9936% ----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier This happens 7.443% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 87.175% ----Revival gets 16th place in IEM This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 92.1688% ----Revival gets 16th place in IEM ----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier ForGG 59.298% 177894/300000, started with 1950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 22.1987% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 97.8633% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 19.7197% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 14.9807% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.2163% ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9354% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 9.96433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9031% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 8.41% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 7.93433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 95.6021% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----ForGG gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.81933% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.30333% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 98.1624% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 5.85733% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.9191% ----ForGG gets 1st place in IEM This happens 5.32533% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.945% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.6483% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 4.762% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.368% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.24667% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.7729% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.65467% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9909% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.31833% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 10.4367% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Europe Premier Maru Prime 49.9343% 149803/300000, started with 2425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.4037% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.7475% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 13.554% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9975% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 8.551% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.28867% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 6.98633% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 6.80967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.4354% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.01833% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9945% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 4.984% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.36333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM This happens 3.21233% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.10033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 98.7682% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.07267% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.96033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.73967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.12167% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 76.2002% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in IEM Rain SKT1 39.014% 117042/300000, started with 2250 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.5197% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 98.7298% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 13.685% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.8662% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 8.54467% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.162% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 97.5306% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 7.05333% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 6.27533% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.7087% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.14367% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 4.80767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.404% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.23167% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.22433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 94.6755% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 2.78833% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.62433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.54767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement This happens 1.947% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.824% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 1.76567% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.58067% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 3.45363% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Korea Premier duckdeok 36.9047% 110714/300000, started with 2300 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 16.3243% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.222% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.8193% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 8.01% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.00533% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.668% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 6.573% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 5.887% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 98.2531% ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 5.11333% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 3.58633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.53033% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.34767% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.07567% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 96.7089% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement This happens 2.713% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.70133% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.614% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals Scarlett 32.844% 98532/300000, started with 2050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.2963% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 94.4976% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 12.995% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 98.3948% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 8.498% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.8903% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.743% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 91.9087% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 6.28967% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 96.7393% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 5.96867% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.894% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 5.366% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 4.33833% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.47767% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 83.7992% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 3.439% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 2.904% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.7824% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 2.625% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 2.21267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.12033% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.5617% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 1.73233% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.72733% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.55267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.386% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 1.12367% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier MMA Acer 25.97% 77910/300000, started with 1550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.716% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9579% ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.06767% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.7981% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 5.96467% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.2721% ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 4.06233% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9098% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.99267% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9082% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.58133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 89.9002% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 2.28733% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 96.2142% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.25133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.2% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.12367% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.55433% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.6155% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.294% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier HyuN 25.3053% 75916/300000, started with 1625 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.76633% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9924% ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 6.24367% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 96.9413% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 5.27967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 97.4888% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 4.68067% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 88.6154% ----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 4.02967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.59533% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9815% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 3.31133% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.31767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.14767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 94.0584% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 2.103% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 32.8491% ----HyuN gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 2.044% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 1.739% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 90.9836% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 1.60867% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.6007% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier MC 20.3017% 60905/300000, started with 2275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 9.04967% of the time and would change MC's chances to 98.8494% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.97067% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.6996% ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 4.46333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.711% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.4373% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.62867% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.44% of the time and would change MC's chances to 97.6071% ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.07767% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.07333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.92133% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.81533% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.77933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 95.4749% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.638% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.16933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 26.5798% ----MC gets 8th place in IEM This happens 0.951667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.915667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.830667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.780667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.777% of the time and would change MC's chances to 2.77177% ----MC gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.733% of the time and would change MC's chances to 32.9636% ----MC gets 4th place in IEM Happy Empire 19.6267% 58880/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 9.699% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.0127% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 5.10033% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 86.5343% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.277% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 28.9547% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.058% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 99.7066% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.79767% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.9741% ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.58733% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.79933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.4193% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.79433% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 6.36446% ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.50933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.16633% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.3694% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.049% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.868667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.786% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.683667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.628333% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.594667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.5091% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.526667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier Flash KT 19.153% 57459/300000, started with 700 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.146% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 81.3813% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 4.683% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 79.8103% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.62633% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.349% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 98.8683% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.28367% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 94.4314% ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.00233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 8.67036% ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 2.001% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 26.8687% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.92233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 31.5171% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 1.61867% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 77.8455% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.60967% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.47433% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.22% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.20333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 99.5862% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.166% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 95.1578% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.932333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.864333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier VortiX 17.81% 53430/300000, started with 900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.76733% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.791% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.82867% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.6422% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.987% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 26.8515% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.93567% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 99.3233% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.64533% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.446% ----VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.367% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.76033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 87.0016% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.59633% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 5.61443% ----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.41133% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.153% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.2175% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.03033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.834333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.707333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.615667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.597667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.582333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 96.6796% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.472% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier KangHo 17.0763% 51229/300000, started with 1500 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 7.79567% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 66.6961% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 5.538% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 88.4382% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.30733% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 87.8808% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.002% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.8116% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.76% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.699% ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.724% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 92.0685% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 2.21367% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 9.11311% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.98833% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 77.3771% ----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.452% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.42967% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.4134% ----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.266% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.0094% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.732667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.696667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.636% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.1169% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.586% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.350333% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier Welmu 13.9823% 41947/300000, started with 1050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.991% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.1812% ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.20733% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 26.676% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.748% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.6576% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.78767% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.9069% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.67033% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 94.3513% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.521% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.3095% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.431% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.7676% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 4.25635% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.15267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 28.3443% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.868333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5034% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.798667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.624333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.585% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.225% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.341333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5141% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.0493333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 2.69925% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier StarDust 12.4123% 37237/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 5.64133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.7647% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 3.24133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 28.3904% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.938% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.4675% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.45767% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 85.1091% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.619% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.8766% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.56733% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.366% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.36333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.093% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 7.75709% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.09067% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 25.4057% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.04633% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 93.4783% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.912667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 72.0526% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.816333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.664667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.5507% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.661667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 31.3834% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.557667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.501667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 20.9406% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.474% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.432667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier PartinG 12.0767% 36230/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.60467% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 78.3284% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 3.61267% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 27.7876% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.502% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 77.6956% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.41% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.2042% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.36233% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.162% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 26.8694% ----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.449% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 79.5425% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.40733% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.3478% ----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.00333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.9336% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.943333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.892333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.1991% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.842% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.519667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.498667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.465667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 96.1459% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier Nerchio 8.66333% 25990/300000, started with 275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.32267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.27833% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 84.3307% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.88933% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0082% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.68267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 20.7779% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.37633% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0902% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.33667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 96.8833% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.789333% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.789% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 83.6691% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.735% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.605% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.559% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 97.6135% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.501% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.259667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.4313% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.096% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 4.68597% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.0436667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 1.27283% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier DongRaeGu 7.82133% 23464/300000, started with 425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.93933% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.213% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 85.0282% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.11867% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 17.9335% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.65733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 24.6066% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.06733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.982667% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 97.2937% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.847% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 86.2233% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.647% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.607333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.536% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.521333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 98.2412% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.181% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 10.3271% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier Jim CN 6.54233% 19627/300000, started with 550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.78667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.71833% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 91.5956% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.37033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 26.2332% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.09333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 13.4819% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 1.09033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 18.9119% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.05533% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 17.2% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.980333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 70.9187% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.778% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.6584% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.577667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 72.8236% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.460667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 77.5098% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.44% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.426% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.416333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.412667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 94.7207% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.405% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.7537% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.366667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.230667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 28.6069% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.052% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 4.00308% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier Oz 6.31867% 18956/300000, started with 1100 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.696% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 31.1917% ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.738% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 93.5582% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.45067% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 13.2079% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.17433% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 18.2814% ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 1.03967% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 94.889% ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.812667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 96.8613% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.578667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 91.1765% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.572667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.4726% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.545667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.3938% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.43% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 28.3579% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 7.43441% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.297667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.268667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.205% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 11.986% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.111% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.0613333% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 1.6523% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement Sen 5.74533% 17236/300000, started with 325 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.16267% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.64067% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 73.6496% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.29533% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 30.6153% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.27967% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 19.4764% ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.03767% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 14.3028% ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.895667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.2048% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.490333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.473667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.473333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.459667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.9761% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.443% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 80.0602% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.059% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 5.71521% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier NesTea 5.58133% 16744/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.67867% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 15.1313% ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.61133% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 94.2668% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.14833% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.05433% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 22.8161% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.657333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 96.9518% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.508% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.497333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 81.933% ----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.460333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.294% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.255333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.192667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.157667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier soO 5.15767% 15473/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.95933% of the time and would change soO's chances to 18.2433% ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.79833% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.1743% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.507% of the time and would change soO's chances to 68.3653% ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.18267% of the time and would change soO's chances to 26.8768% ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change soO's chances to 98.7904% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.917% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.9386% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.577% of the time and would change soO's chances to 99.4256% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.48% of the time and would change soO's chances to 92.3669% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.264667% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.249% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.123% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier HuK 3.96633% 11899/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 0.215333% of the time and would change HuK's chances to 99.8454% ----HuK gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----HuK gets 1st place in America Premier Super MVP 3.865% 11595/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.11233% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.9527% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.38067% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 25.7619% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.191% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 9.49332% ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.888667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.413333% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.5185% ----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.364667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.281667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 29.7326% ----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier KeeN 3.23533% 9706/300000, started with 375 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.18133% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 10.3981% ----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.173% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 81.2702% ----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.611667% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 89.2944% ----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier Genius 3.175% 9525/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.454% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 21.7253% ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.29033% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100% ----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.385% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 99.7409% ----Genius gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100% ----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier Trap 3.01033% 9031/300000, started with 450 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.11867% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 10.2998% ----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.07167% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 85.6876% ----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.545333% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 92.221% ----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier CranK Axiom 2.771% 8313/300000, started with 750 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.14233% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 13.2496% ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.578333% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 74.3678% ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier TitaN RoX.Kis 2.345% 7035/300000, started with 750 WCS points Dear STX 2.328% 6984/300000, started with 250 WCS points ThorZaIN 2.09367% 6281/300000, started with 525 WCS points TheStC 2.02733% 6082/300000, started with 700 WCS points jjakji 1.82367% 5471/300000, started with 25 WCS points Sage 1.54667% 4640/300000, started with 525 WCS points Kas 1.48933% 4468/300000, started with 250 WCS points Hack 1.42033% 4261/300000, started with 50 WCS points BabyKnight 1.399% 4197/300000, started with 750 WCS points Starbuck 1.37333% 4120/300000, started with 100 WCS points ByuL 1.26% 3780/300000, started with 100 WCS points MacSed 1.12067% 3362/300000, started with 700 WCS points Suppy 0.785667% 2357/300000, started with 550 WCS points Apocalypse 0.779333% 2338/300000, started with 500 WCS points Targa 0.746333% 2239/300000, started with 50 WCS points Heart 0.725% 2175/300000, started with 250 WCS points Goswser 0.661% 1983/300000, started with 375 WCS points ShoWTimE ESC 0.621% 1863/300000, started with 50 WCS points DeMusliM 0.523% 1569/300000, started with 400 WCS points MajOr 0.433% 1299/300000, started with 350 WCS points Arthur P 0.432% 1296/300000, started with 50 WCS points Sleep 0.344667% 1034/300000, started with 100 WCS points Minigun 0.292% 876/300000, started with 600 WCS points TAiLS MVP 0.264% 792/300000, started with 200 WCS points puCK 0.191333% 574/300000, started with 300 WCS points KrasS 0.177% 531/300000, started with 175 WCS points HwangSin 0.061% 183/300000, started with 250 WCS points Top CN 0.0476667% 143/300000, started with 250 WCS points Neeb 0.035% 105/300000, started with 200 WCS points ViBE 0.00933333% 28/300000, started with 300 WCS points FireCake 0.00833333% 25/300000, started with 75 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players not still in Premier League] + Mvp IM 99.9293% 299788/300000, started with 3425 WCS points NaNiwa 23.8807% 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 96.2498% ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 18.0474% ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 77.1981% ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM TLO 1.026% 3078/300000, started with 1950 WCS points First IM 0.691667% 2075/300000, started with 2050 WCS points Symbol 0.210667% 632/300000, started with 1750 WCS points Alicia 0.198% 594/300000, started with 1850 WCS points Stephano 0.0796667% 239/300000, started with 2025 WCS points Ryung 0.0276667% 83/300000, started with 1600 WCS points Grubby 0.025% 75/300000, started with 1650 WCS points DIMAGA 0.000333333% 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players with a near 0% chance] + RorO 0% 0/300000, started with 1625 WCS points LucifroN 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points Leenock 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points Snute 0% 0/300000, started with 800 WCS points Life 0% 0/300000, started with 775 WCS points viOLet 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points GuMiho 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points HasuObs 0% 0/300000, started with 700 WCS points mOOnGLaDe 0% 0/300000, started with 650 WCS points SaSe 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points SuperNova 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points SortOf 0% 0/300000, started with 575 WCS points Flying 0% 0/300000, started with 550 WCS points Squirtle 0% 0/300000, started with 525 WCS points Tefel 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points Dayshi 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points hyvaa 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points MaNa 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points sLivko 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points ToD 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Bbyong 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Shine Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Ret 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Shuttle T 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points Bunny 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points FanTaSy 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points YugiOh 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Curious 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Bly 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Strelok 0% 0/300000, started with 350 WCS points theognis 0% 0/300000, started with 325 WCS points SjoW 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points elfi 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points JangBi 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points TRUE JinAir 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points YoDa IM 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points Sound T 0% 0/300000, started with 250 WCS points CoCa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points uzer 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points YongHwa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points Feast 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points State 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points XY 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points EffOrt 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points Creator Prime 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points RagnaroK 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points MarineKing 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points KiLLeR Clarity 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points hellokitty 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points Beastyqt 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Illusion ROOT 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Savage 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Socke 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points qxc 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Siw 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Capoch 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Puzzle 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Verdi 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Hurricane 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Harstem 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Stats 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Crazy KT 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Daisy 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points monchi 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Maker 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points IdrA 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Reality 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Fenix 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Last STX 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Tilea 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points BBoongBBoong 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Dream MVP 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Noname 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points JYP 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points BlinG 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Seed 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points MyuNgSiK 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points iaguz 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Drunkenboi 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Avenge 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Pigbaby 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Swagger 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points ByuN 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Center 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points ParalyzE 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Ruin 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points San 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points SeleCT 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points herO CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points MorroW 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Ian 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Jogginghose 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bunny CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points NightEnD 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Sonder 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Trust 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Xenocider 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points DarkHydra 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bischu 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bang 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bails 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points AlaStOr 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points SonGDuri 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Golden 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points TurN 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Pet 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points s2 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points sC 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Shark Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points sKyHigh 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Sniper 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Solar 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Sparta 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Terminator 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points ZerO 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points VINES 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Noblesse 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Mamuri 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points LabyRinth 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Kop 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points JuNi 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Journey 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Hydra 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Dark 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Billowy 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Balloon 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Argo 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points ALBM 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points + Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] + 0.264% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify 3.84733% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify 14.225% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify 25.2323% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify 43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify 57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify 69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify 72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify 73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify 75.6743% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify 78.9523% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify 87.614% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify 93.5893% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify 97.214% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.809% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9653% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9977% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9997% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify 100% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify | ||
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Anomi
Sweden149 Posts
I don’t think you’re doing the simulation wrong but you’re using data that to begin with that doesn’t actually calculate what player is better than who 100% correct. IT might be better then win ratio but it’s far from being 100% correct. This is just my opinion but when it comes to calculating simulation based stuff that don’t come as numbers naturally: The answer the simulation creates is the same thing of just creating a guess that might be better than if you wild guess randomly. IN your case the answer your model will simulate is a guess that might be better then random person guess but it’s still a guess. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 01:23 Anomi wrote: My only problem with these kind of things is that even if you can simulate it your still using ordinal data when it comes to using Aligulac rankings (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordinal_data). I don’t think you’re doing the simulation wrong but you’re using data that to begin with that doesn’t actually calculate what player is better than who 100% correct. IT might be better then win ratio but it’s far from being 100% correct. This is just my opinion but when it comes to calculating simulation based stuff that don’t come as numbers naturally: The answer the simulation creates is the same thing of just creating a guess that might be better than if you wild guess randomly. IN your case the answer your model will simulate is a guess that might be better then random person guess but it’s still a guess. Yes. Well almost. It actually does a pretty damn good job of predicting who is locked in for Blizzcon, or who can't possibly qualify, which would be really hard to do as accurately with pen and paper. And it also calculates multiple matches, so if someone needs to win 1 more match against a same-skill opponent(according to aligulac of course) then they get a 50% chance, if they need to win 2 matches against same-skill opponents then it goes down to 25%. Amplify this to full brackets of multiple tournaments and it gets to be a lot of work. Also this tells you what events need to happen for them to qualify. edit: tld;dr of course it's not perfect, but lots of people seem to like it anyways | ||
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Thrax
Canada1755 Posts
Regardless, saying this a guess is quite an exaggeration, it's still a prediction based on a model (albeit, an imperfect model). | ||
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Anomi
Sweden149 Posts
On September 14 2013 01:41 Die4Ever wrote: Yes. Well almost. It actually does a pretty damn good job of predicting who is locked in for Blizzcon, or who can't possibly qualify, which would be really hard to do as accurately with pen and paper. And it also calculates multiple matches, so if someone needs to win 1 more match against a same-skill opponent(according to aligulac of course) then they get a 50% chance, if they need to win 2 matches against same-skill opponents then it goes down to 25%. Amplify this to full brackets of multiple tournaments and it gets to be a lot of work. Also this tells you what events need to happen for them to qualify. edit: tld;dr of course it's not perfect, but lots of people seem to like it anyways What your missing is that your purely viewing this as mathematical problem. A good model is not based on how well it predicts but how well it predicts when its based on the right assumptions. Your only assumption seems to be that the skill factor (that in the first place is hard to measure) is the only thing that plays in on who qualifies to blizcon. You are discarding allot of stuff. For instance i would guess that according to aligulax invasion should not have lost his group in season 2 finals but he did. Was this because he was less skillful or that he doesn’t handle traveling well or something else. Let me try to clarify: To be able to create a model that would simulate who would get in to blizzcon or not would almost be the same thing on who would end up being in the playoffs in a sport game. To create that kind of prediction model is allot more complex. for instance if you would do that for ice hockey you would need to create a indicator first for skills if that’s even possible. Then indicators on players physical and mental health . You might also need indicators on the effect on home turf advantage and maybe players. For now i don’t think that kind model exist yet or otherwise we would se someone making million on betting on games . Try running the simulation based on the wcs rankings instead of Aligulax rankings and see what you end up with and try once more with win ratios instead. If any if these ends up being abel to do better prediction would you say they are better? | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:13 Anomi wrote: What your missing is that your purely viewing this as mathematical problem. A good model is not based on how well it predicts but how well it predicts when its based on the right assumptions. Your only assumption seems to be that the skill factor (that in the first place is hard to measure) is the only thing that plays in on who qualifies to blizcon. You are discarding allot of stuff. For instance i would guess that according to aligulax invasion should not have lost his group in season 2 finals but he did. Was this because he was less skillful or that he doesn’t handle traveling well or something else. Let me try to clarify: To be able to create a model that would simulate who would get in to blizzcon or not would almost be the same thing on who would end up being in the playoffs in a sport game. To create that kind of prediction model is allot more complex. for instance if you would do that for ice hockey you would need to create a indicator first for skills if that’s even possible. Then indicators on players physical and mental health . You might also need indicators on the effect on home turf advantage and maybe players. Try running the simulation based on the wcs rankings instead of Aligulax rankings and see what you end up with and try once more with win ratios instead. If any if these ends up being abel to do better prediction would you say they are better? Can you give me example source code for this improved model you're asking for? Make sure you factor in how good the air conditioners inside the booths are for each tournament, this will especially affect Huk. If you're just telling me that my model is not perfect, I already know this. If it was perfect then it wouldn't say Naniwa has a ~20% chance, it would either say 100% or 0%, I would just tell you who qualifies, and then I would go win every bet in every sport ever. If you have constructive criticism then I'd like to hear it. edit: I don't mean to sound rude, but I think everyone knows what you're saying when they read threads like this. I'm pretty sure they know I can't see the future. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:20 opisska wrote: Maybe you could also show the 50:50 results you had earlier in the other thread? It will allow people to chose if they wish to trust Aligulac or not. The 50:50 simulation essentially shows how convolved is the scenario that allows the given player to qualify - if it is significantly less than 50 percent, he requires some pretty sepcific setup. Sure should be done in about 40 minutes. | ||
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FatkiddsLag
United States413 Posts
On September 14 2013 00:19 Grubby wrote: I have 1 in 4000 probability/chance to qualify? I'll take that! :D That's all you need. Grubby guaranteed to make Blizzcon! | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:30 FatkiddsLag wrote: That's all you need. Grubby guaranteed to make Blizzcon! Yeah, all he needs is for all players above him, that are not set to get to Blizzcon to fall out right now and win IEM+DreamHack, that should be enough :D Gl grubby (though to be fair, i doubt your ability to perform well at Blizzcon if you get there T_T). | ||
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:13 Anomi wrote: What your missing is that your purely viewing this as mathematical problem. A good model is not based on how well it predicts but how well it predicts when its based on the right assumptions. Your only assumption seems to be that the skill factor (that in the first place is hard to measure) is the only thing that plays in on who qualifies to blizcon. You are discarding allot of stuff. For instance i would guess that according to aligulax invasion should not have lost his group in season 2 finals but he did. Was this because he was less skillful or that he doesn’t handle traveling well or something else. Let me try to clarify: To be able to create a model that would simulate who would get in to blizzcon or not would almost be the same thing on who would end up being in the playoffs in a sport game. To create that kind of prediction model is allot more complex. for instance if you would do that for ice hockey you would need to create a indicator first for skills if that’s even possible. Then indicators on players physical and mental health . You might also need indicators on the effect on home turf advantage and maybe players. For now i don’t think that kind model exist yet or otherwise we would se someone making million on betting on games . Try running the simulation based on the wcs rankings instead of Aligulax rankings and see what you end up with and try once more with win ratios instead. If any if these ends up being abel to do better prediction would you say they are better? Aligulac just provides CHANCES for player to advance from group that he uses in his simulation to calculate chances of player advancing or not in certain cases. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:20 opisska wrote: Maybe you could also show the 50:50 results you had earlier in the other thread? It will allow people to chose if they wish to trust Aligulac or not. The 50:50 simulation essentially shows how convolved is the scenario that allows the given player to qualify - if it is significantly less than 50 percent, he requires some pretty sepcific setup. I added it to the OP | ||
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TXRaunchy
United States131 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17677 Posts
On September 14 2013 03:29 TXRaunchy wrote: Grubby to take DreamHack and goto BlizzCon! He needs IEM as well. If he qualifies to IEM then his chances will go up a bit. | ||
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purakushi
United States3300 Posts
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Waxangel
United States33429 Posts
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Zer atai
United States691 Posts
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Anomi
Sweden149 Posts
On September 14 2013 02:22 Die4Ever wrote: Can you give me example source code for this improved model you're asking for? Make sure you factor in how good the air conditioners inside the booths are for each tournament, this will especially affect Huk. If you're just telling me that my model is not perfect, I already know this. If it was perfect then it wouldn't say Naniwa has a ~20% chance, it would either say 100% or 0%, I would just tell you who qualifies, and then I would go win every bet in every sport ever. If you have constructive criticism then I'd like to hear it. edit: I don't mean to sound rude, but I think everyone knows what you're saying when they read threads like this. I'm pretty sure they know I can't see the future. It would actually take me allot of time or maybe impossible to figure out on how to create a model that would fill this roll. . Using tools as http://www.r-project.org/ that is free will give you to tools to maybe create a better simulation . Using a logistical model to work with this kind of data might work better but not sure about that (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression). For now you should just add a similar response from lolfail9001 and state what those cases are “Aligulac just provides CHANCES for player to advance from group that he uses in his simulation to calculate chances of player advancing or not in certain cases.” It’s still not 100% correct way of saying it but people would probably just be confused if you tried to explain that the chance from Aligulac ranking is a estimation of what the chance can be and not the actual chance the player that is then used in a simulation to predict what the actual chance could be to qualify to Blizcon . The bottom line is that there is no wrong or right as long as you state the assumption the model is based on and the reasoning behind the decision you made(for instance why using Aligulac ranking as factor and not win ratio ect ). This is the only thing I would actually tell you that needs to be done better. PS:Sry if i sounded critical is still a nice contribution and well done work | ||
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