Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 35

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frogrubdown

1266 Posts

October 13 2013 18:40 GMT

#681

On October 14 2013 03:37 Dalnore wrote:

Show nested quote +

It's just a prediction according to Aligulac player rating.

    (1722) NaNiwa  0-0  Life (1914)      
-----------------------------------------
        2.98% 4-0       0-4  11.67%      
        6.97% 4-1       1-4  19.40%      
       10.18% 4-2       2-4  20.15%      
       11.90% 4-3       3-4  16.74%      
-----------------------------------------
           32.03%        67.97%          

Median outcome: NaNiwa 2-4 Life

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Very odd.

Havik_

United States5585 Posts

October 13 2013 18:40 GMT

#682

This is what you get when you actually enjoy coding and are a smart enough motherfucker to make things happen. Very well done OP.

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 18:42 GMT

#683

On October 14 2013 03:40 frogrubdown wrote:

Show nested quote +

    (1722) NaNiwa  0-0  Life (1914)      
-----------------------------------------
        2.98% 4-0       0-4  11.67%      
        6.97% 4-1       1-4  19.40%      
       10.18% 4-2       2-4  20.15%      
       11.90% 4-3       3-4  16.74%      
-----------------------------------------
           32.03%        67.97%          

Median outcome: NaNiwa 2-4 Life

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Very odd.

My simulation is only using the player's general ratings, not yet using matchup specific ratings

NHY

1013 Posts

October 13 2013 18:42 GMT

#684

Edit:

On October 14 2013 03:42 Die4Ever wrote:
My simulation is only using the player's general ratings, not yet using matchup specific ratings

I see.

frogrubdown

1266 Posts

October 13 2013 18:42 GMT

#685

On October 14 2013 03:42 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

My simulation is only using the player's general ratings, not yet using matchup specific ratings

Oh, that explains it. Is that just for simplicity of code?

Josh_Video

Canada798 Posts

October 13 2013 18:50 GMT

#686

Amazing thread, I've checked it easily a hundred times. Thank you.

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 18:52 GMT

#687

On October 14 2013 03:42 frogrubdown wrote:

Show nested quote +

Oh, that explains it. Is that just for simplicity of code?

Not simplicity, just been spending time on it in other places.

Also I think I found the points issue, I had the points for 16th-13th place and 12th-9th place for IEM mixed up lol, so Revival only got 75 points instead of 150.

Maybe you guys can help me verify.

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 20% chances] +

1. INnoVation, 3000000/3000000, minimum 6025 WCS points, needs at least 6025 WCS points, 100%

2. Soulkey WJS, 3000000/3000000, minimum 4750 WCS points, needs at least 4750 WCS points, 100%

3. Jaedong, 3000000/3000000, minimum 4662 WCS points, needs at least 4662 WCS points, 100%

4. Bomber, 3000000/3000000, minimum 4425 WCS points, needs at least 4425 WCS points, 100%

5. TaeJa, 3000000/3000000, minimum 4125 WCS points, needs at least 4125 WCS points, 100%

6. HerO Liquid, 3000000/3000000, minimum 3962 WCS points, needs at least 3962 WCS points, 100%

7. Polt, 3000000/3000000, minimum 3850 WCS points, needs at least 3850 WCS points, 100%

8. MMA Acer, 3000000/3000000, minimum 3850 WCS points, needs at least 3850 WCS points, 100%

9. sOs, 3000000/3000000, minimum 3800 WCS points, needs at least 3800 WCS points, 100%

10. MC, 2999995/3000000, minimum 3775 WCS points, needs at least 3775 WCS points, 99.9998%

11. Maru Prime, 2999988/3000000, minimum 3675 WCS points, needs at least 3675 WCS points, 99.9996%

12. aLive, 2993169/3000000, minimum 3600 WCS points, needs at least 3600 WCS points, 99.7723%

13. Mvp IM, 2886632/3000000, minimum 3575 WCS points, needs at least 3575 WCS points, 96.2211%

14. duckdeok, 2607547/3000000, minimum 3300 WCS points, needs at least 3300 WCS points, 86.9182%

15. NaNiwa, 1301612/3000000, minimum 3200 WCS points, needs at least 3200 WCS points, 43.3871%

16. Scarlett, 889096/3000000, minimum 2275 WCS points, needs at least 3300 WCS points, 29.6365%

17. HyuN, 836950/3000000, minimum 2362 WCS points, needs at least 3287 WCS points, 27.8983%

18. soO, 789482/3000000, minimum 2300 WCS points, needs at least 3300 WCS points, 26.3161%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 5% chances] +

19. VortiX, 374880/3000000, minimum 2400 WCS points, needs at least 3650 WCS points, 12.496%

20. Dear STX, 356946/3000000, minimum 2500 WCS points, needs at least 3250 WCS points, 11.8982%

21. Oz, 282374/3000000, minimum 2350 WCS points, needs at least 3350 WCS points, 9.41247%

22. Revival, 262846/3000000, minimum 3175 WCS points, needs at least 3175 WCS points, 8.76153%

23. Trap, 188154/3000000, minimum 2450 WCS points, needs at least 3950 WCS points, 6.2718%

24. Genius, 187340/3000000, minimum 2300 WCS points, needs at least 3800 WCS points, 6.24467%

25. CranK Axiom, 159621/3000000, minimum 2500 WCS points, needs at least 3250 WCS points, 5.3207%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 1% chances] +

26. MacSed, 145208/3000000, minimum 2450 WCS points, needs at least 3200 WCS points, 4.84027%

27. HuK, 133108/3000000, minimum 2425 WCS points, needs at least 3175 WCS points, 4.43693%

28. NesTea, 129972/3000000, minimum 2350 WCS points, needs at least 3350 WCS points, 4.3324%

29. Apocalypse, 113541/3000000, minimum 2500 WCS points, needs at least 3250 WCS points, 3.7847%

30. Sen, 99478/3000000, minimum 2325 WCS points, needs at least 3325 WCS points, 3.31593%

31. Heart, 92257/3000000, minimum 2500 WCS points, needs at least 3250 WCS points, 3.07523%

32. Hack, 88021/3000000, minimum 2450 WCS points, needs at least 3200 WCS points, 2.93403%

33. ByuL, 81783/3000000, minimum 2350 WCS points, needs at least 3600 WCS points, 2.7261%

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0.0001% chances] +

+ Show Spoiler [Players with at least 0% chances] +

34. TLO, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

35. Stephano, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

36. Alicia, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

37. Symbol, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

38. Grubby, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

39. KangHo, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

40. Ryung, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

41. DIMAGA, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

42. LucifroN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

43. Happy Empire, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

44. Leenock, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

45. Welmu, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

46. StarDust, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

47. PartinG, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

48. Flash KT, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

49. BabyKnight, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

50. GuMiho, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

51. TitaN RoX.Kis, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

52. HasuObs, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

53. Snute, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

54. TheStC, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

55. Life, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

56. SuperNova, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

57. viOLet, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

58. SaSe, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

59. RorO, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

60. Minigun, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

61. Jim CN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

62. mOOnGLaDe, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

63. Suppy, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

64. DongRaeGu, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

65. Sage, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

66. ThorZaIN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

67. hyvaa, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

68. Bbyong, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

69. KeeN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

70. sLivko, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

71. SortOf, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

72. Flying, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

73. Squirtle, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

74. ToD, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

75. Dayshi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

76. DeMusliM, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

77. Shuttle T, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

78. Tefel, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

79. Goswser, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

80. MaNa, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

81. MajOr, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

82. Ret, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

83. Shine Samsung, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

84. Bunny, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

85. puCK, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

86. ViBE, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

87. Bly, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

88. Curious, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

89. FanTaSy, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

90. JangBi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

91. Nerchio, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

92. TRUE JinAir, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

93. YugiOh, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

94. HwangSin, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

95. Kas, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

96. Strelok, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

97. Top CN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

98. theognis, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

99. uzer, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

100. YongHwa, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

101. elfi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

102. Neeb, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

103. SjoW, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

104. Sleep, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

105. TAiLS MVP, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

106. KrasS, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

107. Reality, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

108. YoDa IM, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

109. ShoWTimE ESC, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

110. Sound T, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

111. Targa, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

112. CoCa, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

113. Feast, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

114. jjakji, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

115. State, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

116. XY, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

117. Creator Prime, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

118. Dream MVP, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

119. EffOrt, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

120. hellokitty, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

121. herO CJ, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

122. KiLLeR Clarity, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

123. MarineKing, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

124. Noname, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

125. Pigbaby, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

126. RagnaroK, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

127. Starbuck, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

128. Beastyqt, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

129. BlinG, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

130. FireCake, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

131. Illusion ROOT, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

132. Savage, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

133. Socke, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

134. Arthur P, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

135. Capoch, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

136. Crazy KT, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

137. Daisy, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

138. First IM, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

139. Harstem, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

140. Hurricane, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

141. Puzzle, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

142. qxc, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

143. Siw, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

144. Stats, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

145. Super MVP, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

146. Swagger, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

147. Verdi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

148. Fenix, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

149. IdrA, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

150. Maker, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

151. monchi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

152. SonGDuri, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

153. BBoongBBoong, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

154. Last STX, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

155. Tilea, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

156. Avenge, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

157. Drunkenboi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

158. iaguz, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

159. JYP, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

160. MyuNgSiK, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

161. Seed, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

162. ByuN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

163. Center, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

164. ParalyzE, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

165. Ruin, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

166. San, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

167. SeleCT, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

168. AlaStOr, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

169. Bails, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

170. Bang, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

171. Bischu, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

172. Bunny CJ, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

173. DarkHydra, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

174. Golden, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

175. Ian, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

176. Jogginghose, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

177. MorroW, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

178. NightEnD, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

179. Sonder, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

180. Trust, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

181. Xenocider, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

182. ALBM, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

183. Argo, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

184. Balloon, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

185. Billowy, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

186. Dark, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

187. Hydra, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

188. Journey, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

189. JuNi, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

190. Kop, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

191. LabyRinth, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

192. Mamuri, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

193. Noblesse, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

194. Pet, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

195. s2, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

196. sC, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

197. Shark Samsung, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

198. sKyHigh, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

199. Sniper, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

200. Solar, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

201. Sparta, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

202. Terminator, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

203. TurN, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

204. VINES, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

205. ZerO, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

206. zest, 0/3000000, minimum 1000000 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

207. Rain SKT1, 0/3000000, minimum 2750 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

208. ForGG, 0/3000000, minimum 2500 WCS points, needs at least 1000000 WCS points, 0%

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +

0.00% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 2950 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
0.00% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
14.96% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
39.95% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
41.70% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
62.68% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.80% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.92% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100.00% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

Cyrik

Germany50 Posts

October 13 2013 19:00 GMT

#688

i think it would help a bit if you could put the current points in for each player, not only their starting points. even better if you could put in their points if an event happens.

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 19:01 GMT

#689

On October 14 2013 04:00 Cyrik wrote:
i think it would help a bit if you could put the current points in for each player, not only their starting points. even better if you could put in their points if an event happens.

The current points is basically the minimum points. Points in event descriptions would be a bit more work lol, probably will be in the 2014 version though.

fuzzylogic44

Canada2633 Posts

October 13 2013 19:06 GMT

#690

Revival's challenger group could tiie him with naniwa if naniwa doesn't win iem here

NHY

1013 Posts

October 13 2013 19:09 GMT

#691

17. HyuN, 836950/3000000, minimum 2362 WCS points, needs at least 3287 WCS points, 27.8983%

That should be min 2225 points.

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 19:14 GMT

#692

On October 14 2013 04:09 NHY wrote:

Show nested quote +

That should be min 2225 points.

Ah yea, that was because of the consolation matches at dreamhack. Thanks.

Facultyadjutant

Sweden1876 Posts

October 13 2013 21:06 GMT

#693

Where are we at now?

Popkiller

3415 Posts

October 13 2013 21:08 GMT

#694

I don't think a Naniwa Revival tie is going to matter... I think both of them are going to be knocked down by some combination of soO, Dear, Scarlett, Hyun.

TaKemE

Denmark1045 Posts

October 13 2013 21:12 GMT

#695

It really sucks that if scarlett makes it Naniwa most like will not imo.

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 21:12 GMT

#696

Updated with IEM completed

Cyrik

Germany50 Posts

October 13 2013 21:21 GMT

#697

i´m not sure if this is possible due to speed, but can you go one or two levels deeper with the analysis?

-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.544% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 10.438%.

if this happens, what are the possibilities one level down and so on. it would of course be ideal if you could go down all the way until there are only 0% and 100% left but that might make it run for way to long

Die4Ever

United States17727 Posts

October 13 2013 21:41 GMT

#698

On October 14 2013 06:21 Cyrik wrote:
i´m not sure if this is possible due to speed, but can you go one or two levels deeper with the analysis?

-------------------------------------------VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 5.544% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 10.438%.

if this happens, what are the possibilities one level down and so on. it would of course be ideal if you could go down all the way until there are only 0% and 100% left but that might make it run for way to long

I'm gonna try tweaking the weighting a bit and showing 20 game changers instead of 15. It should favor showing 0% and 100% scenarios more in the next update.

Lonyo

United Kingdom3884 Posts

October 13 2013 21:54 GMT

#699

Anyone know if this is the sort of thing that professional betting outfits use for setting odds?
I would assume that they have something broadly similar from their own analysis and research in order to set odds? Plus some manual/other input depending on specific things (e.g. a player gets injured in a team sport).

Dingodile

4139 Posts

October 13 2013 21:56 GMT

#700

Does Blizzcon begin with groupstage or bracket? If I think correctly WCS 2012 Global in China was the first Blizz with groupstage. Bracket and invite the reigning champ player automatically were blizzard's tradition :D

Blizzard should just invite Nani and Revival and they play the decisive spot shortly before the actual tournament.

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