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Somehow sad that the qualification spot might get decided by IEM's strange decision to replace ForGG with Revival. Then however it can be discussed if there should be invites at all in tournaments that give WCS points.
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Good work, thanks a lot :D
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Great work!
What is the probability The Dong wins Blizzcon?
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Can you put under each player what circumstances would need to happen for their percent to move up to 100%?
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On October 13 2013 23:05 Chiropractor wrote:
Can you put under each player what circumstances would need to happen for their percent to move up to 100%?
Most players who have a decent chance will have this shown. Who doesn't?
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On October 13 2013 21:06 ForgottenOne wrote:
Great work!
What is the probability The Dong wins Blizzcon?
That is more of an aligulac thing. Out of 16 players, he's not that high on aligulac, somewhere around 3%.
+ Show Spoiler + Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8 Top 16
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 14.53% 10.20% 18.89% 26.71% 29.67%
INnoVation 13.78% 13.36% 23.28% 25.85% 23.72%
MMA 11.46% 7.93% 13.45% 25.39% 41.76%
HyuN 9.84% 10.22% 12.27% 38.63% 29.03%
Mvp 9.75% 9.74% 17.02% 31.64% 31.84%
TaeJa 8.84% 7.06% 12.74% 28.52% 42.85%
Maru 5.80% 6.73% 13.84% 22.41% 51.22%
sOs 5.30% 4.66% 11.04% 20.77% 58.24%
Bomber 4.92% 5.33% 11.77% 26.26% 51.72%
HerO 3.93% 3.92% 9.68% 25.32% 57.15%
Jaedong 3.19% 4.10% 13.76% 30.68% 48.28%
MC 3.09% 5.96% 17.13% 25.05% 48.78%
Soulkey 1.88% 2.77% 8.66% 16.35% 70.33%
Scarlett 1.44% 2.84% 4.79% 14.66% 76.28%
aLive 1.19% 2.58% 7.17% 20.90% 68.16%
duckdeok 1.08% 2.59% 4.50% 20.86% 70.97% Jaedong 2 ┐
├───── Jaedong 1 ┐
Bomber 1 ┘ │
├──────── Polt 1 ┐
Polt 2 ┐ │ │
├──────── Polt 2 ┘ │
Soulkey 1 ┘ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┐
HerO 1 ┐ │ │
├─────── TaeJa 1 ┐ │ │
TaeJa 2 ┘ │ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
sOs 1 ┐ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
MMA 2 ┘ │
├─ MMA
MC 2 ┐ │
├────────── MC 1 ┐ │
Maru 1 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┐ │
aLive 1 ┐ │ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 1 ┘
duckdeok 1 ┐ │
├──────── HyuN 1 ┐ │
HyuN 2 ┘ │ │
├── INnoVation 1 ┘
INnoVation 2 ┐ │
├── INnoVation 2 ┘
Scarlett 1 ┘
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
On October 13 2013 23:37 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2013 21:06 ForgottenOne wrote:
Great work!
What is the probability The Dong wins Blizzcon? That is more of an aligulac thing. Out of 16 players, he's not that high on aligulac, somewhere around 3%. + Show Spoiler + Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8 Top 16
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 14.53% 10.20% 18.89% 26.71% 29.67%
INnoVation 13.78% 13.36% 23.28% 25.85% 23.72%
MMA 11.46% 7.93% 13.45% 25.39% 41.76%
HyuN 9.84% 10.22% 12.27% 38.63% 29.03%
Mvp 9.75% 9.74% 17.02% 31.64% 31.84%
TaeJa 8.84% 7.06% 12.74% 28.52% 42.85%
Maru 5.80% 6.73% 13.84% 22.41% 51.22%
sOs 5.30% 4.66% 11.04% 20.77% 58.24%
Bomber 4.92% 5.33% 11.77% 26.26% 51.72%
HerO 3.93% 3.92% 9.68% 25.32% 57.15%
Jaedong 3.19% 4.10% 13.76% 30.68% 48.28%
MC 3.09% 5.96% 17.13% 25.05% 48.78%
Soulkey 1.88% 2.77% 8.66% 16.35% 70.33%
Scarlett 1.44% 2.84% 4.79% 14.66% 76.28%
aLive 1.19% 2.58% 7.17% 20.90% 68.16%
duckdeok 1.08% 2.59% 4.50% 20.86% 70.97% Jaedong 2 ┐
├───── Jaedong 1 ┐
Bomber 1 ┘ │
├──────── Polt 1 ┐
Polt 2 ┐ │ │
├──────── Polt 2 ┘ │
Soulkey 1 ┘ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┐
HerO 1 ┐ │ │
├─────── TaeJa 1 ┐ │ │
TaeJa 2 ┘ │ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
sOs 1 ┐ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
MMA 2 ┘ │
├─ MMA
MC 2 ┐ │
├────────── MC 1 ┐ │
Maru 1 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┐ │
aLive 1 ┐ │ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 1 ┘
duckdeok 1 ┐ │
├──────── HyuN 1 ┐ │
HyuN 2 ┘ │ │
├── INnoVation 1 ┘
INnoVation 2 ┐ │
├── INnoVation 2 ┘
Scarlett 1 ┘
I love how it predicts MMA vs Mvp final with MMA winning.
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On October 13 2013 23:39 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2013 23:37 Die4Ever wrote:On October 13 2013 21:06 ForgottenOne wrote:
Great work!
What is the probability The Dong wins Blizzcon? That is more of an aligulac thing. Out of 16 players, he's not that high on aligulac, somewhere around 3%. + Show Spoiler + Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8 Top 16
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Polt 14.53% 10.20% 18.89% 26.71% 29.67%
INnoVation 13.78% 13.36% 23.28% 25.85% 23.72%
MMA 11.46% 7.93% 13.45% 25.39% 41.76%
HyuN 9.84% 10.22% 12.27% 38.63% 29.03%
Mvp 9.75% 9.74% 17.02% 31.64% 31.84%
TaeJa 8.84% 7.06% 12.74% 28.52% 42.85%
Maru 5.80% 6.73% 13.84% 22.41% 51.22%
sOs 5.30% 4.66% 11.04% 20.77% 58.24%
Bomber 4.92% 5.33% 11.77% 26.26% 51.72%
HerO 3.93% 3.92% 9.68% 25.32% 57.15%
Jaedong 3.19% 4.10% 13.76% 30.68% 48.28%
MC 3.09% 5.96% 17.13% 25.05% 48.78%
Soulkey 1.88% 2.77% 8.66% 16.35% 70.33%
Scarlett 1.44% 2.84% 4.79% 14.66% 76.28%
aLive 1.19% 2.58% 7.17% 20.90% 68.16%
duckdeok 1.08% 2.59% 4.50% 20.86% 70.97% Jaedong 2 ┐
├───── Jaedong 1 ┐
Bomber 1 ┘ │
├──────── Polt 1 ┐
Polt 2 ┐ │ │
├──────── Polt 2 ┘ │
Soulkey 1 ┘ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┐
HerO 1 ┐ │ │
├─────── TaeJa 1 ┐ │ │
TaeJa 2 ┘ │ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
sOs 1 ┐ │ │
├───────── MMA 2 ┘ │
MMA 2 ┘ │
├─ MMA
MC 2 ┐ │
├────────── MC 1 ┐ │
Maru 1 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┐ │
aLive 1 ┐ │ │ │
├───────── Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
Mvp 2 ┘ │ │
├───────── Mvp 1 ┘
duckdeok 1 ┐ │
├──────── HyuN 1 ┐ │
HyuN 2 ┘ │ │
├── INnoVation 1 ┘
INnoVation 2 ┐ │
├── INnoVation 2 ┘
Scarlett 1 ┘ I love how it predicts MMA vs Mvp final with MMA winning.
lol, epic
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aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly.
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
On October 14 2013 00:10 Jerom wrote:
aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly.
aligulac draws conclusions of recent perfomance to make predictions. Innovation was doing relatively poorly, so his rating slightly dropped. Mvp did not play a game in a while for example.
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On October 14 2013 00:24 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 00:10 Jerom wrote:
aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly. aligulac draws conclusions of recent perfomance to make predictions. Innovation was doing relatively poorly, so his rating slightly dropped. Mvp did not play a game in a while for example.
yah I see. But still, innovation's chances seem pretty high for how poorly he has been doing lately. I'd personally estimate soulkey's chances to win it all much higher for example.
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On October 14 2013 00:26 Jerom wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 00:24 lolfail9001 wrote:On October 14 2013 00:10 Jerom wrote:
aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly. aligulac draws conclusions of recent perfomance to make predictions. Innovation was doing relatively poorly, so his rating slightly dropped. Mvp did not play a game in a while for example. yah I see. But still, innovation's chances seem pretty high for how poorly he has been doing lately. I'd personally estimate soulkey's chances to win it all much higher for example.
But you also have to consider that those matches are in the past, Innovation could regain his form or become even better than ever for Blizzcon, we don't really know.
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On October 14 2013 01:42 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 00:26 Jerom wrote:On October 14 2013 00:24 lolfail9001 wrote:On October 14 2013 00:10 Jerom wrote:
aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly. aligulac draws conclusions of recent perfomance to make predictions. Innovation was doing relatively poorly, so his rating slightly dropped. Mvp did not play a game in a while for example. yah I see. But still, innovation's chances seem pretty high for how poorly he has been doing lately. I'd personally estimate soulkey's chances to win it all much higher for example. But you also have to consider that those matches are in the past, Innovation could regain his form or become even better than ever for Blizzcon, we don't really know.
true, but there are also longterm trends that lie in not playing matches. aligulac cannot really capture this. for example, i am very sure that mvp will not make it to the finals of blizzcon.
btw the upper half of the blizzcon bracket looks much stronger than the lower one.
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On October 14 2013 01:50 Black Gun wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 01:42 Die4Ever wrote:On October 14 2013 00:26 Jerom wrote:On October 14 2013 00:24 lolfail9001 wrote:On October 14 2013 00:10 Jerom wrote:
aligulac always seems behind what's really happening though, and recently I think there have been some shifts in the rating of some players, that aligulac might not have caught up to. For example Innovation and mvp doing somewhat poorly. aligulac draws conclusions of recent perfomance to make predictions. Innovation was doing relatively poorly, so his rating slightly dropped. Mvp did not play a game in a while for example. yah I see. But still, innovation's chances seem pretty high for how poorly he has been doing lately. I'd personally estimate soulkey's chances to win it all much higher for example. But you also have to consider that those matches are in the past, Innovation could regain his form or become even better than ever for Blizzcon, we don't really know. true, but there are also longterm trends that lie in not playing matches. aligulac cannot really capture this. for example, i am very sure that mvp will not make it to the finals of blizzcon. btw the upper half of the blizzcon bracket looks much stronger than the lower one.
haha yea I just threw that together
Having a time decay on players who haven't played a match in a while seems like just guessing that their skill is going down, doesn't seem like very concrete evidence.
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Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now
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On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now
Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.
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On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.
No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.
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On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol. No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.
Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.
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On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol. No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now. Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.
Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.
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On October 14 2013 02:04 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D
at least that is out of the way now Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol. No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now. Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points. Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.
Oh yeah, you're right, he already dropped into the group stage.
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EPT
