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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 31

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 29 30 31 32 33 78 Next
Kheve
Profile Joined May 2013
323 Posts
October 12 2013 17:23 GMT
#601
Revival never had a chance in the first place lol. His only hope was a win in IEM (same as Naniwa). MVP is at the cutoff point at 15/6/17. Anyone who cant overtake/reach MVP has no chance.

Duckdeok, Scarlet (based on her making it to season3 finals easily) are the 2 shoo in for 2 spots. Any anyone of the season 3 finals (Soo, Dear, Vortix, Hyun). MVP shld be pretty safe as I cant see Soo Dear Vortix in the top2/top4 of season 3 finals. Maybe 1 of them but not more.

Hyun ughhh never strong, hes only in contention thx to all the non wcs placing ( Hes the only guy who attended every single event)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 12 2013 18:07 GMT
#602
Updated again with Hero vs Life results, tweaks to make it prioritize IEM events and 1st place events over others, and some blue coloring!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 12 2013 18:15 GMT
#603
On October 13 2013 02:23 Kheve wrote:
Revival never had a chance in the first place lol. His only hope was a win in IEM (same as Naniwa). MVP is at the cutoff point at 15/6/17. Anyone who cant overtake/reach MVP has no chance.

Duckdeok, Scarlet (based on her making it to season3 finals easily) are the 2 shoo in for 2 spots. Any anyone of the season 3 finals (Soo, Dear, Vortix, Hyun). MVP shld be pretty safe as I cant see Soo Dear Vortix in the top2/top4 of season 3 finals. Maybe 1 of them but not more.

Hyun ughhh never strong, hes only in contention thx to all the non wcs placing ( Hes the only guy who attended every single event)


Not sure if Duckdeok's is a shoo in. It really depends who he draws at the global finals. He will be one of the weaker players there.
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 12 2013 21:01 GMT
#604
On October 13 2013 02:23 Kheve wrote:
Revival never had a chance in the first place lol. His only hope was a win in IEM (same as Naniwa). MVP is at the cutoff point at 15/6/17. Anyone who cant overtake/reach MVP has no chance.

Duckdeok, Scarlet (based on her making it to season3 finals easily) are the 2 shoo in for 2 spots. Any anyone of the season 3 finals (Soo, Dear, Vortix, Hyun). MVP shld be pretty safe as I cant see Soo Dear Vortix in the top2/top4 of season 3 finals. Maybe 1 of them but not more.

Hyun ughhh never strong, hes only in contention thx to all the non wcs placing ( Hes the only guy who attended every single event)

Hyun never strong? Are you for real? WCS points are so heavily stacked in favor of WCS events that the fact that Hyun has somehow gotten to Blizzcon through non-WCS events means he's done INCREDIBLY HYUNBELIEVABLY and CONSISTENTLY well at tons of these events. It truly disturbs me that you don't find him a strong player.
jjakji fan
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 12 2013 21:14 GMT
#605
On October 13 2013 06:01 slowbacontron wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2013 02:23 Kheve wrote:
Revival never had a chance in the first place lol. His only hope was a win in IEM (same as Naniwa). MVP is at the cutoff point at 15/6/17. Anyone who cant overtake/reach MVP has no chance.

Duckdeok, Scarlet (based on her making it to season3 finals easily) are the 2 shoo in for 2 spots. Any anyone of the season 3 finals (Soo, Dear, Vortix, Hyun). MVP shld be pretty safe as I cant see Soo Dear Vortix in the top2/top4 of season 3 finals. Maybe 1 of them but not more.

Hyun ughhh never strong, hes only in contention thx to all the non wcs placing ( Hes the only guy who attended every single event)

Hyun never strong? Are you for real? WCS points are so heavily stacked in favor of WCS events that the fact that Hyun has somehow gotten to Blizzcon through non-WCS events means he's done INCREDIBLY HYUNBELIEVABLY and CONSISTENTLY well at tons of these events. It truly disturbs me that you don't find him a strong player.

Agreed. I really hope we see him at Blizzcon Really depends mostly on WCS AM/Season finals.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-12 22:36:42
October 12 2013 22:34 GMT
#606
New update posted with IEM semifinals set.
Keep in mind that this event
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM
This happens 22.475% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 69.253%.

is identical to Naniwa winning IEM by itself, since Hyun will always get 4th place when Naniwa wins IEM.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Adebisi
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Canada1637 Posts
October 12 2013 22:36 GMT
#607
On October 13 2013 07:34 Die4Ever wrote:
New update posted with IEM semifinals set.
Keep in mind that this event
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM
This happens 22.475% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 69.253%.

is identical to Naniwa winning IEM by itself, since Hyun will always get 4th place when Naniwa wins IEM.

you're a god.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 12 2013 22:40 GMT
#608
On October 13 2013 07:36 Adebisi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2013 07:34 Die4Ever wrote:
New update posted with IEM semifinals set.
Keep in mind that this event
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 4th place in IEM
-------------------------------------------NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM
This happens 22.475% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 69.253%.

is identical to Naniwa winning IEM by itself, since Hyun will always get 4th place when Naniwa wins IEM.

you're a god.

"Expert" mods4ever.com
Salient
Profile Joined August 2011
United States876 Posts
October 13 2013 00:54 GMT
#609
So Naniwa and Hyun basically play for the right to attend Blizzcon tomorrow?
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
October 13 2013 01:04 GMT
#610
On October 13 2013 09:54 Salient wrote:
So Naniwa and Hyun basically play for the right to attend Blizzcon tomorrow?


WCS AM is infinitely more important for hyun, even if he wins this tournament if he loses in ro16 he's out of blizzcon.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-13 01:12:10
October 13 2013 01:11 GMT
#611
On October 13 2013 10:04 Dodgin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2013 09:54 Salient wrote:
So Naniwa and Hyun basically play for the right to attend Blizzcon tomorrow?


WCS AM is infinitely more important for hyun, even if he wins this tournament if he loses in ro16 he's out of blizzcon.

yea, I had to actually increase the weight of IEM events for displaying them just to get it to show the probabilities if Hyun wins IEM, since the program knew WCS AM was way more important for him.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 13 2013 02:00 GMT
#612
Front page feature!! Congratulations Die4Ever!
jjakji fan
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 13 2013 02:09 GMT
#613
wow, thanks!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Phantom_Sky
Profile Joined August 2010
Hong Kong512 Posts
October 13 2013 02:13 GMT
#614
can show the chance of at least one foreigner qualified ? (making it Naniwa, Scarlett or Vortex qualified?)

Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 13 2013 02:21 GMT
#615
On October 13 2013 11:13 Phantom_Sky wrote:
can show the chance of at least one foreigner qualified ? (making it Naniwa, Scarlett or Vortex qualified?)


Coming right up
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 13 2013 02:31 GMT
#616
On October 13 2013 11:13 Phantom_Sky wrote:
can show the chance of at least one foreigner qualified ? (making it Naniwa, Scarlett or Vortex qualified?)


....do we count China and Taiwan? lol
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-13 02:41:38
October 13 2013 02:39 GMT
#617
How about like this? (Run without aligulac and only 1000 samples)

+ Show Spoiler [foreigner hope rating] +

Chance of Blizzcon having a foreigner is 71.6%, 716/1000
Scarlett from Canada has a 30.5% chance. The chance that Scarlett is the only foreigner is 21.8%, 218/1000
NaNiwa from Sweden has a 23.9% chance. The chance that NaNiwa is the only foreigner is 17%, 170/1000
VortiX from Spain has a 16.8% chance. The chance that VortiX is the only foreigner is 9.2%, 92/1000
HuK from Canada has a 6.9% chance. The chance that HuK is the only foreigner is 3.7%, 37/1000
MacSed from China has a 5.6% chance. The chance that MacSed is the only foreigner is 3.7%, 37/1000
Sen from Taiwan has a 3.2% chance. The chance that Sen is the only foreigner is 1.4%, 14/1000
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17737 Posts
October 13 2013 02:53 GMT
#618
Updated with foreigner hope rating!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
October 13 2013 03:11 GMT
#619
71.6% is actually really high :O Not bad!
jjakji fan
Gatesleeper
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada300 Posts
October 13 2013 04:18 GMT
#620
Hm, why does HuK have a 6.9% chance in that list but only a 1.1% chance in the long list? Same goes for Macsed. On the other hand, Scarlett is listed at 30.5% in the short list but 39% in the long list? Isn't there some way to extrapolate the collective chance of seeing a foreigner in the top 16 from the long list data?
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