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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 34

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 32 33 34 35 36 78 Next
TheSilverfox
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden1928 Posts
October 13 2013 17:19 GMT
#661
On October 14 2013 02:10 phagga wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 02:04 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D

at least that is out of the way now

Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.


No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.

Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.

Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.

Oh yeah, you're right, he already dropped into the group stage.


Anyone know what would happen if both NaNiwa and Revival got 3200 points? If NaNi gets 2nd in IEM and Revival get 25 more Challenger league points it's a tie.
Also known as Joinsimon on Twitter/Reddit
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 17:20 GMT
#662
On October 14 2013 02:19 TheSilverfox wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 02:10 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:04 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D

at least that is out of the way now

Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.


No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.

Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.

Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.

Oh yeah, you're right, he already dropped into the group stage.


Anyone know what would happen if both NaNiwa and Revival got 3200 points? If NaNi gets 2nd in IEM and Revival get 25 more Challenger league points it's a tie.

Nobody knows, I'm not even sure Blizzard knows lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 17:22 GMT
#663
I'm doing a run where 50% of the time Revival gets bonus points for challenger, half of the time he gets those points it will be 24 points and the other half of the time it will be 26 points, just to avoid tie breaker situations.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
j4vz
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada976 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-13 17:27:10
October 13 2013 17:26 GMT
#664
wrong thread
someone_elses_lies@live.fr
Seiniyta
Profile Joined May 2010
Belgium1815 Posts
October 13 2013 17:32 GMT
#665
On October 14 2013 02:20 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 02:19 TheSilverfox wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:10 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:04 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D

at least that is out of the way now

Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.


No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.

Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.

Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.

Oh yeah, you're right, he already dropped into the group stage.


Anyone know what would happen if both NaNiwa and Revival got 3200 points? If NaNi gets 2nd in IEM and Revival get 25 more Challenger league points it's a tie.

Nobody knows, I'm not even sure Blizzard knows lol.


A best of 7 between Revival and Naniwa to determine placement. Easy.
Pokemon Master
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 17:33 GMT
#666
On October 14 2013 02:22 Die4Ever wrote:
I'm doing a run where 50% of the time Revival gets bonus points for challenger, half of the time he gets those points it will be 24 points and the other half of the time it will be 26 points, just to avoid tie breaker situations.

Done. Along with results of Naniwa vs Hyun.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Mangooze
Profile Joined December 2010
Netherlands301 Posts
October 13 2013 17:33 GMT
#667
Just wanted to say, big thumbs up for making/maintaining this. Really fun to follow leading up to Blizzon.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 17:34 GMT
#668
On October 14 2013 02:32 Seiniyta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 02:20 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:19 TheSilverfox wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:10 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:04 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:03 phagga wrote:
On October 14 2013 02:02 KillerDucky wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:56 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 14 2013 01:53 sharkie wrote:
Naniwa above Revival now 100%! :D

at least that is out of the way now

Sweet, I don't have to program tie breakers lol.


No, Naniwa only has 25 more points than Revival now.

Yeah, and revival still has the challenger league matches were he can get up to 75 more points.

Oh ok. Revival can only get 25 more points in challenger though.

Oh yeah, you're right, he already dropped into the group stage.


Anyone know what would happen if both NaNiwa and Revival got 3200 points? If NaNi gets 2nd in IEM and Revival get 25 more Challenger league points it's a tie.

Nobody knows, I'm not even sure Blizzard knows lol.


A best of 7 between Revival and Naniwa to determine placement. Easy.

Seems too reasonable lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 18:14 GMT
#669
Updated with IEM finals set. Apparently Life and Naniwa are really close in overall aligulac rating, unfortunately I still don't have the race specific ratings in yet.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
NHY
Profile Joined October 2010
1013 Posts
October 13 2013 18:20 GMT
#670
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0
Gatesleeper
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada300 Posts
October 13 2013 18:24 GMT
#671
On October 14 2013 03:20 NHY wrote:
Show nested quote +
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0

lol that match you're talking about JUST happened. This is updated pretty frequently but it's not up to the second.
NHY
Profile Joined October 2010
1013 Posts
October 13 2013 18:27 GMT
#672
On October 14 2013 03:24 Gatesleeper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 03:20 NHY wrote:
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0

lol that match you're talking about JUST happened. This is updated pretty frequently but it's not up to the second.


Actually it is

This latest update on Monday, Oct 14 3:15am KST (GMT+09:00) includes -
-shArk-
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany150 Posts
October 13 2013 18:27 GMT
#673
Is this up to date with NaNis iem points?
sOs - Rain - PartinG
Dalnore
Profile Joined May 2013
Russian Federation66 Posts
October 13 2013 18:27 GMT
#674
On October 14 2013 03:24 Gatesleeper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 03:20 NHY wrote:
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0

lol that match you're talking about JUST happened. This is updated pretty frequently but it's not up to the second.

Actually it is stated in the simulation description that all semifinals are already taken into account.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 13 2013 18:28 GMT
#675
On October 14 2013 03:20 NHY wrote:
Show nested quote +
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0

Yea I think you're right.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Zeon0
Profile Joined September 2010
Austria2995 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-13 18:29:03
October 13 2013 18:28 GMT
#676
On October 14 2013 03:27 -shArk- wrote:
Is this up to date with NaNis iem points?

yes
Hater of MKP since GSL Open Season 2 | Fanboy of: NesTea Stephano IdrA DIMAGA MorroW ret DongRaeGu Snute SaSe Mvp ThorZaIN DeMusliM
Dalnore
Profile Joined May 2013
Russian Federation66 Posts
October 13 2013 18:32 GMT
#677
On October 14 2013 03:28 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 03:20 NHY wrote:
5.19% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
7.03% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify


Something is wrong here. They should be 0

Yea I think you're right.

Also NaNiwa winning IEM event should be decisive for Revival's IF Game Changes, but it's not reflected there. It seems Revival's current points are underestimated.
TaKemE
Profile Joined April 2010
Denmark1045 Posts
October 13 2013 18:34 GMT
#678
How can Naniwa be 49,2% chance to win final against life? Life is for sure a big favorite no?
Dalnore
Profile Joined May 2013
Russian Federation66 Posts
October 13 2013 18:37 GMT
#679
On October 14 2013 03:34 TaKemE wrote:
How can Naniwa be 49,2% chance to win final against life? Life is for sure a big favorite no?

It's just a prediction according to Aligulac player rating.
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
October 13 2013 18:38 GMT
#680
On October 14 2013 03:37 Dalnore wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2013 03:34 TaKemE wrote:
How can Naniwa be 49,2% chance to win final against life? Life is for sure a big favorite no?

It's just a prediction according to Aligulac player rating.


dh run + vs forgg + vs inno

=

massive elo points

#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
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