EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 36
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 14 2013 06:56 Dingodile wrote: Does Blizzcon begin with groupstage or bracket? If I think correctly WCS 2012 Global in China was the first Blizz with groupstage. Bracket and invite the reigning champ player automatically were blizzard's tradition :D Blizzard should just invite Nani and Revival and they play the decisive spot shortly before the actual tournament. The season finals are groups for ro16, so I imagine Blizzcon will be similar. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32742 Posts
On October 14 2013 06:57 Darkhoarse wrote: Okay this got SHOOK UP at IEM. Hyun needs to absolutely bring his A game for WCS AM. I thought HyuN needed to do well at WCS anyways regardless of how well he played in IEM? Even if he got the additional 450 points from a first place finish, a minimum 6th place finish at WCS NA was essential to him reaching Season 3 Finals and hence Blizzcon. | ||
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TheSayo182
Italy243 Posts
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
On October 14 2013 07:05 PhoenixVoid wrote: I thought HyuN needed to do well at WCS anyways regardless of how well he played in IEM? Even if he got the additional 450 points from a first place finish, a minimum 6th place finish at WCS NA was essential to him reaching Season 3 Finals and hence Blizzcon. The main thing was he would've maintained a lead on Nani if he had beaten him and made the finals. He needed the WCS to cement it anyway. | ||
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TAMinator
Australia2706 Posts
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Prog455
Denmark970 Posts
I really think that whether Naniwa will be attending or not is going to be decided by whoever Hyun and Scarlett meets in ro8 in NA, granted that they both make it out of their groups, and if they both lose in ro8, whether they will meet in the placement matches or not. I don't think that Naniwas chances are looking all that good, but at this point all it really takes for him to make it is an upset in NA. On October 14 2013 07:51 TheSayo182 wrote: so basically scarlett and soO will figth for the last spot? Scarlett and Hyun are both in ro16 in NA and they are basicly even in points, so Hyun could take the spot aswell. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 14 2013 08:02 TAMinator wrote: In Naniwas stats, why would soO winning WCS KR increase Naniwas chances of getting to blizzcon? Maybe you meant Dear? if soO gets 2nd place he has 2300 points, if he wins then he has 2800 points and could pass Naniwa at the season finals if Dear gets 2nd has 1750 points, if he wins he only has 2250 points | ||
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Prog455
Denmark970 Posts
On October 14 2013 08:06 Die4Ever wrote: if soO gets 2nd place he has 2300 points, if he wins then he has 2800 points and could pass Naniwa at the season finals if Dear gets 2nd has 1750 points, if he wins he only has 2250 points Yea i think that is the point. Right now the model says that SoO winning would increase Naniwa's chances, but as you said yourself it would be much better for Naniwa if Dear won Korea since he has much fewer points. | ||
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umade
Sweden172 Posts
If we assume Scarlett advances to from her group, she gets 300 more. If she makes the top 4, she'll get 250-750 more. For now, we assume she makes the top 8 and gets the 5th seed that means a spot at S3 finals. This also means another +500. She'll be at 3050. A third place finish in her group at S3 finals puts her ahead of Naniwa. If we assume HyuN advances from his group, he gets 300 more. If he makes the top 4, he'll make 250-750 more. Lets assume he places 3rd/4th. We add 250 to him + 500 for his S3 spot. That puts him at 3250, ahead of Naniwa. Naniwa is now at 16th. This one is almost a given. If we assume VortiX advances from his group in S3, he'll gell +500. For him to get past Naniwa, he needs to finish top 2. A 3rd/4th place would only give him 3150 points. If we assume Dear wins the WCS Korea finals (it's him vs soO), he'll be at 2250 including his +500 from S3 finals. He'll need to place 3rd/4th at the S3 finals to ecplise Naniwa. | ||
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Vaftrudner
Sweden1185 Posts
I almost never hope for players losing, but I would love to see both Naniwa and Scarlett at Blizzcon. The only way that happens is if Scarlett does well, Hyun doesn't own WCS America and Dear and soO fall out early in the season finals. Ideally, Hyun would fall out before ro8 to be on the safe side, Dear would win the GSL and Dear and soO both go out in ro16 of the season finals. I feel dirty... But thank you Die4Ever, not just for making this brilliant thing but for maintaining it as well, it's an awesome contribution! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 14 2013 08:12 Prog455 wrote: Yea i think that is the point. Right now the model says that SoO winning would increase Naniwa's chances, but as you said yourself it would be much better for Naniwa if Dear won Korea since he has much fewer points. Ah I see. -------------------------------------------soO gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HyuN gets 16th place in America Premier -------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 10.102% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 65.566%. As you can see here if soO wins GSL and then loses immediately at the season finals, it's good for Naniwa because that's not enough points for soO to pass him, but it spreads out the points more below him. Also keep in mind that soO is higher rated than Dear on Aligulac, so him losing first round at the season finals is more of an upset, and the events are sorted by a mix of how likely they are to happen and how much they change his chances by. -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.229% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 11.344%. -------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.188% of the time. When it does, it decreases NaNiwa's chances to 14.948%. It doesn't mention how Dear winning GSL affects Naniwa because I guess by itself it won't affect Naniwa much. | ||
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On October 14 2013 07:53 Darkhoarse wrote: The main thing was he would've maintained a lead on Nani if he had beaten him and made the finals. He needed the WCS to cement it anyway. ?? maintained a lead? what? Hyun has never had a lead on Naniwa. o.O | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
imho he would be one of the ones helped the very most by giving him 50% winrate. I mean, he literally needs top 2 at s3 finals to make it, so if hes 50% winrate, top 2 would happen about 2/16 or 1/8 or 12.5% of the time so the percentage for that seems accurate. But do his odds really only drop 0.0423% when factoring skill? (and the fact that he'd need to beat top koreans) | ||
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
On October 14 2013 08:33 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: ?? maintained a lead? what? Hyun has never had a lead on Naniwa. o.O Err gotten a lead maybe? I don't know math makes my head hurt. And reading. And general basic cranial activity | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 14 2013 08:47 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: Just out of curiosity, why are Vortix's normal odds so close to his odds with all players considered equal? imho he would be one of the ones helped the very most by giving him 50% winrate. I mean, he literally needs top 2 at s3 finals to make it, so if hes 50% winrate, top 2 would happen about 2/16 or 1/8 or 12.5% of the time so the percentage for that seems accurate. But do his odds really only drop 0.0423% when factoring skill? (and the fact that he'd need to beat top koreans) It's because Vortix is rated pretty highly on aligulac. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On October 14 2013 09:05 Die4Ever wrote: It's because Vortix is rated pretty highly on aligulac. ah ok, aligulac inaccuracies, not much you can do about that i guess. thanks for quick reply  | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2605 Posts
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