|
Revival is probably in some corner crying 
|
United States34 Posts
On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3.
Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed.
The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon.
This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc.
Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs.
|
On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. This is just a silly post. His scenario runs 3 MILLION times, and none of those times it manages to find a scenario where those two players mentioned don't make it. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs.
This is a silly post tbh... His scenario runs 3 MILLION times and none of those times those players make it, it's ridiculous to nitpick at this... What do you want 3 trillion simulations?
Also if you take some time to go through the whole thread, you'll see that in the section where all players are equal, both of those have scenarios where they are not 100%, which is exactly what he runs those simul for, so you just have to take some time and actually read the whole thing to know that it's working quite fine as is! 
|
On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs.
It is not the OP's fault that people can't read.
|
oh man sc2 blizzcon without sen just wouldnt be blizzcon. Sen to win WCS am and Globals one time!~
|
On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs.
It's not OPs fault people don't take the time to understand what they are reading. He's just simulating possible outcomes given the uncertainty, both giving the players aligulac estimates and equal probabilities. But yes, it would be a simple exercise to distinguish the 'true' 100% to the rest.
|
Stupid question but, what happens if a player cannot attend the Blizzcon ? for example, Bomber cannot attend because of his health issue ? Does the 17th is picked ?
|
On October 15 2013 00:22 FluoCrazyKenny wrote:
Stupid question but, what happens if a player cannot attend the Blizzcon ? for example, Bomber cannot attend because of his health issue ? Does the 17th is picked ?
Would be the only fair thing to do yeah so I think thats what would happen. Unless they do it the IEM way and just pick who ever they want >_<
|
On October 15 2013 00:22 FluoCrazyKenny wrote:
Stupid question but, what happens if a player cannot attend the Blizzcon ? for example, Bomber cannot attend because of his health issue ? Does the 17th is picked ?
17th is picked, no doubt.
|
I could replace 100% with ~100% instead. Or I could just put ~ in front of every number lol.
|
Don't do that, ~100% means nothing. In the end, what you should clearly say in the OP (although I find it clear already) is that the percentages are the result of 3 million simulations. So, e.g., 3 million attempts result in no times where MC and sOs don't make it.
Finding out whether MMA can make it or not is done via a completely different method: by calculating how many points are maximally available to which players. While that's nice, it's nearly useless considering the interdependence of player results and provides a worse picture of the situation.
MC isn't getting a place because he has a ton of points, he's getting a seat because there aren't enough people with marginally fewer points in a position to surpass him.
|
On October 15 2013 01:01 Die4Ever wrote:
I could replace 100% with ~100% instead. Or I could just put ~ in front of every number lol.
do the ~ in front of every number XD then no one can ever complain again! ^^
|
On October 15 2013 01:01 Die4Ever wrote:
I could replace 100% with ~100% instead. Or I could just put ~ in front of every number lol.
I say keep it. People who venture into this thread should keep a somewhat critical mindset (as with all statistics) and hopefully they end up learning something about the limitations of simulations.
|
United States34 Posts
On October 15 2013 00:02 ffadicted wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. This is just a silly post. His scenario runs 3 MILLION times, and none of those times it manages to find a scenario where those two players mentioned don't make it. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs. This is a silly post tbh... His scenario runs 3 MILLION times and none of those times those players make it, it's ridiculous to nitpick at this... What do you want 3 trillion simulations? Also if you take some time to go through the whole thread, you'll see that in the section where all players are equal, both of those have scenarios where they are not 100%, which is exactly what he runs those simul for, so you just have to take some time and actually read the whole thing to know that it's working quite fine as is!
It makes no difference to me how many simulations are performed. Trust me, I took the time to look through the entire thread before my 1st post. Die4Ever didn't adjust the percentages for MC or sOs, in the all-players-considered-equal section, to be lower than 100% until after I brought up the fact that those Players haven't clinched BlizzCon.
Like I've said already, this is amazing work and I'm glad it's getting the attention that it deserves. But there's a responsibility that comes with this much attention, and perhaps that responsibility is more on TL than Die4Ever, to not spread misinformation. Like it or not, when a thread on the TL homepage says that it's a 100% probability that MC and sOs will reach BlizzCon, that is currently misinforming the SC2 community.
|
On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs.
The thing is that there exists a thing called margin of error, which has been explained time and time again in this thread. Your scenario could very well be within this margin of error. Vortix alone having to win S3 is currently at 5.5%. Furthermore your scenario would require that Hyun, Vortix, Oz and SoO end up in each their group, and finishing first in that group aswell.
While your scenario is only mildly unrealistic in terms of player statistics, there is an extremely low chance that it will actually happen.
|
On October 15 2013 01:39 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 00:02 ffadicted wrote:On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. This is just a silly post. His scenario runs 3 MILLION times, and none of those times it manages to find a scenario where those two players mentioned don't make it. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs. This is a silly post tbh... His scenario runs 3 MILLION times and none of those times those players make it, it's ridiculous to nitpick at this... What do you want 3 trillion simulations? Also if you take some time to go through the whole thread, you'll see that in the section where all players are equal, both of those have scenarios where they are not 100%, which is exactly what he runs those simul for, so you just have to take some time and actually read the whole thing to know that it's working quite fine as is! It makes no difference to me how many simulations are performed. Trust me, I took the time to look through the entire thread before my 1st post. Die4Ever didn't adjust the percentages for MC or sOs, in the all-players-considered-equal section, to be lower than 100% until after I brought up the fact that those Players haven't clinched BlizzCon. Like I've said already, this is amazing work and I'm glad it's getting the attention that it deserves. But there's a responsibility that comes with this much attention, and perhaps that responsibility is more on TL than Die4Ever, to not spread misinformation. Like it or not, when a thread on the TL homepage says that it's a 100% probability that MC and sOs will reach BlizzCon, that is currently misinforming the SC2 community.
I did not change the OP after your post at all, check the last edited time.
Anyways, I'll put ~ in front on every number and put a little warning in the OP next time I do an update, after tonight's WCS AM group.
|
United States34 Posts
On October 15 2013 01:41 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 01:39 MLG John wrote:On October 15 2013 00:02 ffadicted wrote:On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. This is just a silly post. His scenario runs 3 MILLION times, and none of those times it manages to find a scenario where those two players mentioned don't make it. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs. This is a silly post tbh... His scenario runs 3 MILLION times and none of those times those players make it, it's ridiculous to nitpick at this... What do you want 3 trillion simulations? Also if you take some time to go through the whole thread, you'll see that in the section where all players are equal, both of those have scenarios where they are not 100%, which is exactly what he runs those simul for, so you just have to take some time and actually read the whole thing to know that it's working quite fine as is! It makes no difference to me how many simulations are performed. Trust me, I took the time to look through the entire thread before my 1st post. Die4Ever didn't adjust the percentages for MC or sOs, in the all-players-considered-equal section, to be lower than 100% until after I brought up the fact that those Players haven't clinched BlizzCon. Like I've said already, this is amazing work and I'm glad it's getting the attention that it deserves. But there's a responsibility that comes with this much attention, and perhaps that responsibility is more on TL than Die4Ever, to not spread misinformation. Like it or not, when a thread on the TL homepage says that it's a 100% probability that MC and sOs will reach BlizzCon, that is currently misinforming the SC2 community. I did not change the OP after your post at all, check the last edited time. Anyways, I'll put ~ in front on every number and put a little warning in the OP next time I do an update, after tonight's WCS AM group.
My mistake. Could've sworn I saw 100s across the board for those guys. Not sure ~ will make a difference.
What we really need is x- beside the top 8 here http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/standings
Good work man.
|
On October 14 2013 23:31 redpeople wrote:Revival is probably in some corner crying
He should be happy he got a 150 point gift from ESL atleast.
|
On October 15 2013 01:55 MLG John wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 01:41 Die4Ever wrote:On October 15 2013 01:39 MLG John wrote:On October 15 2013 00:02 ffadicted wrote:On October 14 2013 23:49 MLG John wrote:On October 14 2013 18:34 Prog455 wrote:On October 14 2013 12:49 MLG John wrote:
First, let me say that this is really impressive. I'm glad you're getting the credit you deserve for this.
That said, I believe that your program is somewhat flawed. Maybe this post will help you make it better. I think that when your program is saying that someone makes BlizzCon 3mm out of 3mm times, it is saying that they have clinched a spot. But that's not true in the case of MC and I don't think that's the case for sOs either.
MC is currently 10th in points with 3775. So if I can give you a possible outcome for the remainder of Season 3 where 7 Players pass him, who currently trail him, then something is wrong. Here's one such example.
First, MC finishes 13th-16th in the S3 Finals leaving him with 3775 Points
1. Maru finishes 9th-12th in the S3 Finals giving him 3925 Points
2. Duckdeok finishes 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
3. Soo wins the S3 Korea PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 3800 Points
4. Scarlett finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 NA PL and 5th-8th in the S3 Finals giving her 3800 Points
5. Hyun finishes 2nd in the S3 NA PL and 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals giving him 4200 Points
6. Vortix wins the S3 Finals giving him 4650 Points
7. Oz wins the S3 NA PL and finishes 3rd-4th in the S3 Finals.
MC will probably make it, but this is definitely not the only possible outcome where he doesn't.
I can also provide examples where sOs ties for 16th, but I won't list that in the interest of keeping this post readable and I'm also not sure if Blizzard has said how ties would be handled.
I hope this helps. This is just a silly post. His scenario runs 3 MILLION times, and none of those times it manages to find a scenario where those two players mentioned don't make it. Keep in mind though that 100% is not actually 100% but rather 100% +/- a certain margin of error. Also there is some external factors other than player statistics that can be deciding. There is for instance 25% chance that Oz is going to meet either Hyun or Scarlett in ro8 in NA, which would make this scenario impossible. At this point much can be decided by whether two potential candidates are going to meet in a single elimination match or not. Also the chance of your scenario actually happening is 0% since it would require both SoO, Hyun and Oz to finish 4th or 3rd in S3. Yeah, that scenario needs fixing. Oz finishes 2nd in the S3 Finals. Fixed. The point I'm trying to make is simply that MC and sOs have not yet clinched a spot in BlizzCon. This thread is on the TL homepage, being referenced by casters, etc. Those who don't have a technical understanding of the program that's generating these probabilites, like me, see 100% BlizzCon probability and think those Players have clinched BlizzCon. While this is true for Innovation, Soulkey, Jaedong, Bomber, Taeja, Hero, Polt, and MMA, it's not true for MC and sOs. This is a silly post tbh... His scenario runs 3 MILLION times and none of those times those players make it, it's ridiculous to nitpick at this... What do you want 3 trillion simulations? Also if you take some time to go through the whole thread, you'll see that in the section where all players are equal, both of those have scenarios where they are not 100%, which is exactly what he runs those simul for, so you just have to take some time and actually read the whole thing to know that it's working quite fine as is! It makes no difference to me how many simulations are performed. Trust me, I took the time to look through the entire thread before my 1st post. Die4Ever didn't adjust the percentages for MC or sOs, in the all-players-considered-equal section, to be lower than 100% until after I brought up the fact that those Players haven't clinched BlizzCon. Like I've said already, this is amazing work and I'm glad it's getting the attention that it deserves. But there's a responsibility that comes with this much attention, and perhaps that responsibility is more on TL than Die4Ever, to not spread misinformation. Like it or not, when a thread on the TL homepage says that it's a 100% probability that MC and sOs will reach BlizzCon, that is currently misinforming the SC2 community. I did not change the OP after your post at all, check the last edited time. Anyways, I'll put ~ in front on every number and put a little warning in the OP next time I do an update, after tonight's WCS AM group. My mistake. Could've sworn I saw 100s across the board for those guys. Not sure ~ will make a difference. What we really need is x- beside the top 8 here http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/standingsGood work man.
To determine absolutely if a player is going to blizzcon would be a totally different program than what I have now, which would have different limitations. I think putting a ~ in front of numbers with a margin of error of about 0.0001% is acceptable, and that margin of error will shrink as we get closer to the end of the season. I would implement a backtracking algorithm to have every possible scenario be represented at least once, but I think it would require terabytes of ram, and even with virtual memory or a database it would never complete the simulation.
edit: actually at this point it would be possible to use backtracking because we're near the end. Would still be a pain.
|
On October 14 2013 23:31 redpeople wrote:Revival is probably in some corner crying
I really dont understand why he would forfeit his challenger bracket stage games. He had an opportunity to get 75, now he only has a shot at 25. Really dumb call there imo. =/
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
