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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 40

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 38 39 40 41 42 78 Next
Scarecrow
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Korea (South)9175 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-15 09:42:58
October 15 2013 09:39 GMT
#781
Pretty disappointing to see only 4 WCS Korea Koreans going to the finals (maybe 5 if Dear comes through on 10%). By far the hardest region to be consistent in and deserves more points.
Yhamm is the god of predictions
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-15 09:44:35
October 15 2013 09:44 GMT
#782
5: Inno, Soulkey, Bomber, sOs, Maru. And Dear/Soo would be 6th.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 15 2013 12:15 GMT
#783
On October 15 2013 18:39 Scarecrow wrote:
Pretty disappointing to see only 4 WCS Korea Koreans going to the finals (maybe 5 if Dear comes through on 10%). By far the hardest region to be consistent in and deserves more points.


Agreed completely and I've been saying this for ages ever since day 1 of WCS announcement. Korea needs more points/money then everybody else, end of story.
SooYoung-Noona!
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 15 2013 12:46 GMT
#784
On October 15 2013 18:39 Scarecrow wrote:
Pretty disappointing to see only 4 WCS Korea Koreans going to the finals (maybe 5 if Dear comes through on 10%). By far the hardest region to be consistent in and deserves more points.


Agree obviously, but see it the other way around too: with the korean "invasion" of EU and NA Wcs an unequal point system this season would have starved out even more non-korean players. Wcs system is a balance between having the best players compete for the title and make the title globally relevant.

ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 15 2013 12:52 GMT
#785
On October 15 2013 21:46 Bertholdz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2013 18:39 Scarecrow wrote:
Pretty disappointing to see only 4 WCS Korea Koreans going to the finals (maybe 5 if Dear comes through on 10%). By far the hardest region to be consistent in and deserves more points.


Agree obviously, but see it the other way around too: with the korean "invasion" of EU and NA Wcs an unequal point system this season would have starved out even more non-korean players. Wcs system is a balance between having the best players compete for the title and make the title globally relevant.



I think with a bigger point/money payout in Korea, a lot more koreans would choose to stay and play in the korea league tbh, which would in turn accomplish what most people want: more non-korean representation in non-korean regions
SooYoung-Noona!
Fjodorov
Profile Joined December 2011
5007 Posts
October 15 2013 15:03 GMT
#786
"We will announce how tie breakers for will be handled soon. I promise."

I got this response when asking Kim Phan in the WCS Q&A thread.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
October 16 2013 01:42 GMT
#787
Scarlett's out.

Naniwa's choices are slightly improved.
Ace Frehley
Profile Joined December 2012
2030 Posts
October 16 2013 01:46 GMT
#788
Scarlett out, good for Mvp, duckdeok, Naniwa and Revival

Still, there's Soo, Dear and Hyun to threaten them (and the random dudes coming out of nowhere: Trap, Vortix, Genius, etc)
...
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8760 Posts
October 16 2013 01:46 GMT
#789
what are the chances now for naniwa's advancement to Blizzcon?
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before the fall.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-16 01:50:41
October 16 2013 01:50 GMT
#790
On October 16 2013 10:46 Doublemint wrote:
what are the chances now for naniwa's advancement to Blizzcon?

For Naniwa
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 38.156% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 44.123%.

Running the new stats now which will be more accurate with current results.
edit: that's up from 30.2%
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8760 Posts
October 16 2013 01:53 GMT
#791
On October 16 2013 10:50 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2013 10:46 Doublemint wrote:
what are the chances now for naniwa's advancement to Blizzcon?

For Naniwa
-------------------------------------------Scarlett gets 16th place in America Premier
This happens 38.156% of the time. When it does, it increases NaNiwa's chances to 44.123%.

Running the new stats now which will be more accurate with current results.
edit: that's up from 30.2%


Thank you very much!
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before the fall.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
October 16 2013 02:03 GMT
#792
crap I screwed up the run, gotta start over lol
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8760 Posts
October 16 2013 02:07 GMT
#793
On October 16 2013 11:03 Die4Ever wrote:
crap I screwed up the run, gotta start over lol


nooo! What does this mean now for naniwa oh mighty math magician?!
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before the fall.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
October 16 2013 02:10 GMT
#794
On October 16 2013 11:07 Doublemint wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2013 11:03 Die4Ever wrote:
crap I screwed up the run, gotta start over lol


nooo! What does this mean now for naniwa oh mighty math magician?!

he should be at about 44%, this should be done in like 15 minutes
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8760 Posts
October 16 2013 02:12 GMT
#795
On October 16 2013 11:10 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2013 11:07 Doublemint wrote:
On October 16 2013 11:03 Die4Ever wrote:
crap I screwed up the run, gotta start over lol


nooo! What does this mean now for naniwa oh mighty math magician?!

he should be at about 44%, this should be done in like 15 minutes


alright, which is about the same as before...

Still thanks^^
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before the fall.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-16 02:16:05
October 16 2013 02:15 GMT
#796
On October 16 2013 11:12 Doublemint wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2013 11:10 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 16 2013 11:07 Doublemint wrote:
On October 16 2013 11:03 Die4Ever wrote:
crap I screwed up the run, gotta start over lol


nooo! What does this mean now for naniwa oh mighty math magician?!

he should be at about 44%, this should be done in like 15 minutes


alright, which is about the same as before...

Still thanks^^

Well if you look in the OP now he's at 30.2%, and it said if Scarlett loses in the round of 16, then Naniwa's chances go up to about 44%. So it should stay around 44% with these latest results.
so like 14% increase is pretty good
"Expert" mods4ever.com
jmihere
Profile Joined June 2013
62 Posts
October 16 2013 02:19 GMT
#797
Funny, I find I am getting more pumped up with Die4Ever's update than over the contestants' qualification chances themselves.... lol.

Great work, Die4Ever!

Btw, Die4Ever, you've been credited on the WCS AM cast today!!

at the 2:52 mark.


Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
October 16 2013 02:26 GMT
#798
On October 16 2013 11:19 jmihere wrote:
Funny, I find I am getting more pumped up with Die4Ever's update than over the contestants' qualification chances themselves.... lol.

Great work, Die4Ever!

Btw, Die4Ever, you've been credited on the WCS AM cast today!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giUNj73cn2M at the 2:52 mark.



Thanks! I actually heard this live lol, was pretty cool.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17744 Posts
October 16 2013 02:30 GMT
#799
ok update posted with WCS AM group B results.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 16 2013 02:34 GMT
#800
Ouch.... Down goes Scarlett
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
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