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On October 16 2013 15:54 Ghanburighan wrote:Looking more closely at the following situations. Show nested quote +
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Korea Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 6.883% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.898%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.100% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.302%.
Who is Soo actually competing with? He will be on 3300 points, tied with Duckdeok, passed Naniwa. And it lists results from Maru, Dear and Hyun. So who is he actually competing against? I thought Revival cannot get passed 2300 points. Is it Vortix?
If soO got to round of 8, he's competing against basically anyone else who is in Season Finals but doesn't have a spot yet.
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Sweden636 Posts
On October 16 2013 15:41 WallieP wrote:
I hear you all about revival, the eg zerg rigth.. but i dont get that.. he is allready out of CL NA/forfeit right so he cannot pass naniwa anymore?
(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Bracket_Stage)
there is still the group stage and if you come 1st or 2nd in that he will get 50points = an extra 25
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On October 16 2013 15:54 Ghanburighan wrote:Looking more closely at the following situations. Show nested quote +
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Korea Premier
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 6.883% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.898%.
-------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
-------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
-------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier
This happens 0.100% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.302%.
Who is Soo actually competing with? He will be on 3300 points, tied with Duckdeok, passed Naniwa. And it lists results from Maru, Dear and Hyun. So who is he actually competing against? I thought Revival cannot get passed 2300 points. Is it Vortix?
Not rlly. Soo is in pretty good shape if he wins wcs korea. then all he needs is a ro8 in season finals and hes pretty much in blizzcon.
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Scarlett NOOOOOOOO!!!!!! T.T
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Russian Federation66 Posts
On October 15 2013 12:29 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 12:27 Shellshock wrote:
Season 1 was
A2 vs C1
B2 vs D1
B1 vs D2
A1 vs C2
Season 2 was
A1 vs D2
C1 vs B2
B1 vs C2
D1 vs A2
so I guess you can't really say unless they showed it somewhere due to lack of consistency
Random it is!
It's doesn't seem to be completely random. As far as I remember, in European region it's random with the following limitations:
1) Group winners face group runner-ups in Ro8 (e.g., A1 vs B1 or B2 vs D2 are prohibited).
2) Players already played each other in the Ro16 stage can't face each other until finals. For example, if A1 is in the upper bracket, than A2 will be in the lower bracket and so on.
As I can see, both Season 1 and Season 2 America brackets match the just listed conditions.
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On October 16 2013 23:16 Dalnore wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 12:29 Die4Ever wrote:On October 15 2013 12:27 Shellshock wrote:
Season 1 was
A2 vs C1
B2 vs D1
B1 vs D2
A1 vs C2
Season 2 was
A1 vs D2
C1 vs B2
B1 vs C2
D1 vs A2
so I guess you can't really say unless they showed it somewhere due to lack of consistency
Random it is! It's doesn't seem to be completely random. As far as I remember, in European region it's random with the following limitations: 1) Group winners face group runner-ups in Ro8 (e.g., A1 vs B1 or B2 vs D2 are prohibited). 2) Players already played each other in the Ro16 stage can't face each other until finals. For example, if A1 is in the upper bracket, than A2 will be in the lower bracket and so on. As I can see, both Season 1 and Season 2 America brackets match the just listed conditions.
Yea they probably will at least have that.
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On October 16 2013 15:41 WallieP wrote:
I hear you all about revival, the eg zerg rigth.. but i dont get that.. he is allready out of CL NA/forfeit right so he cannot pass naniwa anymore?
(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Bracket_Stage)
Scroll down further. Group stage hasnt been played. He can get 25 points there if he gets top 2 in group.
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On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens.
I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%..
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Oh my, this is so addictive. Watching the numbers grow up and down.
Thanks for increasing the number of simulations by the way. How long to make 15 000 000 MC simulations?
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On October 17 2013 07:46 fezvez wrote:
Oh my, this is so addictive. Watching the numbers grow up and down.
Thanks for increasing the number of simulations by the way. How long to make 15 000 000 MC simulations?
I think it takes about 30 minutes. About half of that time is spent looking for the significant events for each player. I will admit though that it could still be optimized a lot more.
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lol innovation at 6k points, he should get a medal just for that
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Sweden636 Posts
On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%..
Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand.
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United States97276 Posts
On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%.. Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand.
Should have them both come out to Blizzcon and play a preliminary BoX to qualify or at least do it in some way so it's not cross server
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your Country52797 Posts
On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%.. Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand.
Anything but a coin flip really...
also if apocalypse makes it into blizzcon I will buy a hat and eat it
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Sweden636 Posts
On October 17 2013 10:00 Shellshock wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%.. Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand. Should have them both come out to Blizzcon and play a preliminary BoX to qualify or at least do it in some way so it's not cross server
that would be the best but do you really think they will pay for an extra player? sure blizzard can obviously afford it (lol) but well.. will they? I doubt any team or player want to pay for themselves to go there for just a tiebreaker.
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On October 14 2013 06:08 Popkiller wrote:
I don't think a Naniwa Revival tie is going to matter... I think both of them are going to be knocked down by some combination of soO, Dear, Scarlett, Hyun.
Well that's two down... hahaha I can't believe it! The Revival tie is a real threat now...
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On October 17 2013 10:00 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%.. Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand. Anything but a coin flip really... also if apocalypse makes it into blizzcon I will buy a hat and eat it
Doesn't count, you could just buy a hat made of food. It has to be a currently owned hat.
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United States33587 Posts
wow that went well for naniwa
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On October 17 2013 12:35 fuzzylogic44 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 10:00 The_Templar wrote:On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%.. Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand. Anything but a coin flip really... also if apocalypse makes it into blizzcon I will buy a hat and eat it Doesn't count, you could just buy a hat made of food. It has to be a currently owned hat.
I accept a 'food hat' if he bakes it himself.
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Update posted with WCS AM Group C results.
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EPT
