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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 44

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 42 43 44 45 46 78 Next
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia302 Posts
October 17 2013 09:07 GMT
#861
aLive is the Virus of the qualified players. I really wish Soo qualifies so we have another Zerg.
NHY
Profile Joined October 2010
1013 Posts
October 17 2013 09:26 GMT
#862
Once WCS AM Ro16 is done, you should combine 20% 5% 1% .0001% charts into one with 26 players as "players who has a chance to qualify for Blizzcon" and just get rid of 0% one.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 17 2013 11:18 GMT
#863
On October 17 2013 12:35 fuzzylogic44 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 10:00 The_Templar wrote:
On October 17 2013 09:58 doffe wrote:
On October 17 2013 07:24 Coolhwip wrote:
On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote:
Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o

Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens.

I think the chances for revival to pass through a challenger group is close to 100%..


Indeed the opposition wont be at all scary for him. I really hope that if it comes down to a draw they have them play a bo7 or something for it rather then inventing some other way to decide it (say most points in actual WCS tourneys, best result most recent WCS etc ) since nothing about this has been announced beforehand.

Anything but a coin flip really...

also if apocalypse makes it into blizzcon I will buy a hat and eat it


Doesn't count, you could just buy a hat made of food. It has to be a currently owned hat.

I don't own a hat -_-
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
HandleTaken
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden81 Posts
October 17 2013 11:29 GMT
#864
On October 17 2013 14:24 Die4Ever wrote:
So once WCS AM Group D is done I'll do a GSL Finals edition update. I'm gonna do a full run assuming Dear wins GSL, and a full run assuming soO wins GSL. And of course I'll have the normal current results run. But this way you'll be able to see how the GSL finals will affect everything.


Let me just reiterate that you're awesome!

Do you realize just how confused this community would have been without this thread?
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 17 2013 12:37 GMT
#865
Chance of Blizzcon having 3 foreigners is 0.000306667%, 46/15000000

How is this possible?
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 17 2013 12:39 GMT
#866
On October 17 2013 21:37 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
Chance of Blizzcon having 3 foreigners is 0.000306667%, 46/15000000

How is this possible?

Huk comes 1st, Vortix comes 3-4th and MacSed 2nd(at season finals). Something like this.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Mifoi123
Profile Joined May 2013
Canada42 Posts
October 17 2013 13:28 GMT
#867
Die4Ever you are awesome! Thank you very much for this thread, it's something a nerd like me really appreciate a lot! <3

P.S.: This is my first post in here, please don't kill me with fire!
I'd like to help! :)
Pirfiktshon
Profile Joined June 2013
United States1072 Posts
October 17 2013 13:33 GMT
#868
I really hope naniwa makes it to Blizzcon I've been looking at your chart almost everyweek to see what his chances are they look better and better all thetime hahahah
godamine
Profile Joined February 2013
France2 Posts
October 17 2013 13:48 GMT
#869
First Post too , Thanks Die4Ever for the Huge work .

Hope Naniwa make it!
urboss
Profile Joined September 2013
Austria1223 Posts
October 17 2013 13:54 GMT
#870
Great work, thank you!!
lookfirewood
Profile Joined May 2011
1212 Posts
October 17 2013 14:43 GMT
#871
Been some time since you put this up, but thanks for your hard work Die4ever! It's amazing to see it being up to date almost immidiatly.

Thanks
R.I.P STX 03.08.2013 never forget.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 17 2013 15:03 GMT
#872
On October 17 2013 21:39 lolfail9001 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 21:37 The_Templar wrote:
Chance of Blizzcon having 3 foreigners is 0.000306667%, 46/15000000

How is this possible?

Huk comes 1st, Vortix comes 3-4th and MacSed 2nd(at season finals). Something like this.

so the only way for 3 foreigners to make it to blizzcon is for the foreigner with the highest chance to get knocked out
...
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
00Visor
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
4337 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-17 15:31:32
October 17 2013 15:28 GMT
#873
The WCS points system sucks. Hyun earned points at all(!) Tier 1+2 Events and still didnt make it. Basically if you don't score some big points in premier league, you don't have a shot.

Hyuns placements:
1st place - Dreamhack Valencia
2nd place - MLG Spring Championship
Top 4 - Homestory Cup 7, IEM New York
Top 8 - Dreamhack Stockholm, Dreamhack Summer, IEM Shanghai
Top 16 - Dreamhack Bucharest

(thanks to reddit user Gatesleeper)
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-17 15:34:02
October 17 2013 15:32 GMT
#874
On October 18 2013 00:28 00Visor wrote:
The WCS points systems suck. Hyun earned points at all(!) Tier 1+2 Events and still didnt make it. Basically if you don't score some big points in premier league, you don't have a shot.

Hyuns placements:
1st place - Dreamhack Valencia
2nd place - MLG Spring Championship
Top 4 - Homestory Cup 7, IEM New York
Top 8 - Dreamhack Stockholm, Dreamhack Summer, IEM Shanghai
Top 16 - Dreamhack Bucharest

(thanks to reddit user Gatesleeper)


So you're telling me that if you don't perform well in WCS EVENTS you might miss out on WCS FINALS????
Mind blowing?
SooYoung-Noona!
SinCitta
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Germany2127 Posts
October 17 2013 15:35 GMT
#875
It was pretty evident from the point distribution in the announcement that T1/2 events won't matter much. Don't know why so many people found them so important in tournaments.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 17 2013 15:36 GMT
#876
On October 18 2013 00:32 ffadicted wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 00:28 00Visor wrote:
The WCS points systems suck. Hyun earned points at all(!) Tier 1+2 Events and still didnt make it. Basically if you don't score some big points in premier league, you don't have a shot.

Hyuns placements:
1st place - Dreamhack Valencia
2nd place - MLG Spring Championship
Top 4 - Homestory Cup 7, IEM New York
Top 8 - Dreamhack Stockholm, Dreamhack Summer, IEM Shanghai
Top 16 - Dreamhack Bucharest

(thanks to reddit user Gatesleeper)


So you're telling me that if you don't perform well in WCS EVENTS you might miss out on WCS FINALS????
Mind blowing?

those were WCS events not the main ones though
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
m0ck
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
4194 Posts
October 17 2013 15:37 GMT
#877
On October 18 2013 00:35 SinCitta wrote:
It was pretty evident from the point distribution in the announcement that T1/2 events won't matter much. Don't know why so many people found them so important in tournaments.

You should ask naniwa if he thinks points from the T1 and T2 events matter much
Dalnore
Profile Joined May 2013
Russian Federation66 Posts
October 17 2013 16:07 GMT
#878
On October 18 2013 00:37 m0ck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 00:35 SinCitta wrote:
It was pretty evident from the point distribution in the announcement that T1/2 events won't matter much. Don't know why so many people found them so important in tournaments.

You should ask naniwa if he thinks points from the T1 and T2 events matter much

However, these points matter really much only for NaNiwa and Revival. If non-WCS events didn't give WCS points we would have the following top20:
+ Show Spoiler +

Innovation 5650
Soulkey 4750
Bomber 4425
Maru 3675
Mvp 3575
Jaedong 3550
MMA 3550
sOs 3400
MC 3400
aLive 3375
duckdeok 3300
HerO 3000
TaeJa 2925
Polt 2850
Rain 2750
Scarlett 2450
----
ForGG 2300
Revival 2275
First 2200
soO 2150

So only Revival and NaNiwa would suffer much without these points. And probably TaeJa's chances at the moment would be quite lower.
asongdotnet
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
United States1060 Posts
October 17 2013 16:24 GMT
#879
naniwa and revival are breathing a whole lot easier after yesterday
BaneRiders
Profile Joined August 2013
Sweden3630 Posts
October 17 2013 16:57 GMT
#880
On October 18 2013 00:32 ffadicted wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 00:28 00Visor wrote:
The WCS points systems suck. Hyun earned points at all(!) Tier 1+2 Events and still didnt make it. Basically if you don't score some big points in premier league, you don't have a shot.

Hyuns placements:
1st place - Dreamhack Valencia
2nd place - MLG Spring Championship
Top 4 - Homestory Cup 7, IEM New York
Top 8 - Dreamhack Stockholm, Dreamhack Summer, IEM Shanghai
Top 16 - Dreamhack Bucharest

(thanks to reddit user Gatesleeper)


So you're telling me that if you don't perform well in WCS EVENTS you might miss out on WCS FINALS????
Mind blowing?


Yeah, I think this is worth to look into in general. There has been far too many points in season finals in particular I think, but if they are gone next season, all the better. Consistency throughout the year should pay off, not scoring hugely in one season WCS and then disappear, still being guaranteed a spot in the finals. That being said, Hyun is not the only person to have done well outside WCS. JaeDong, HerO, Taeja and Naniwa also scored a lot of WCS points in non-WCS tournaments. But that is a bit of topic of course.
Earth, Water, Air and Protoss!
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