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Active: 2011 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 45

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 43 44 45 46 47 78 Next
xN.07)MaK
Profile Joined January 2006
Spain1159 Posts
October 17 2013 18:02 GMT
#881
On October 17 2013 18:07 playnice wrote:
aLive is the Virus of the qualified players. I really wish Soo qualifies so we have another Zerg.


That's a bit disrespectful, tbh. Alive to win the whole thing!
El micro es el último recurso que les queda a los que no producen lo suficiente
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-17 18:25:37
October 17 2013 18:24 GMT
#882
On October 18 2013 03:02 xN.07)MaK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 18:07 playnice wrote:
aLive is the Virus of the qualified players. I really wish Soo qualifies so we have another Zerg.


That's a bit disrespectful, tbh. Alive to win the whole thing!


I don't know, Virus wasn't that bad back in 2011.

But aLive is badly underrated. He's not a world-beater but he's very solid and he tends to show entertaining games. I've heard some casters refer to him as a kind of "boring" (i.e., predictable) player, but I have never felt that about him, I remember him doing fun stuff like proxy window mines. If anyone hasn't seen it, watch his series against First in the Season 2 finals QF (at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4ugXHZCPDI); TaeJa/INnoVation might have been the game of that tournament, but I think this was the best SERIES in the tournament.
volta1
Profile Joined May 2013
13 Posts
October 17 2013 19:13 GMT
#883
This thread is excellent! I've been checking it after each match - thank you for compiling this.
Nesserev
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Belgium2760 Posts
October 18 2013 03:36 GMT
#884
--- Nuked ---
redpeople
Profile Joined July 2013
70 Posts
October 18 2013 04:05 GMT
#885
Nice to see finale secured a spot
The God of the stomach is at war with the God of kidneys
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 18 2013 04:24 GMT
#886
Looks like Naniwa is Polt's biggest fan right now. Polt wins WCS America and does well in the season finals, Naniwa is in.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 18 2013 04:26 GMT
#887
On October 18 2013 13:24 coverpunch wrote:
Looks like Naniwa is Polt's biggest fan right now. Polt wins WCS America and does well in the season finals, Naniwa is in.

Unless Revival wins his WCS Challenger League group and ties with NaNiwa in points. ;o
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 18 2013 04:29 GMT
#888
On October 18 2013 13:24 coverpunch wrote:
Looks like Naniwa is Polt's biggest fan right now. Polt wins WCS America and does well in the season finals, Naniwa is in.

Naniwa is a fan of everyone above him in points.
Nothing makes Polt special or anything, you could say the same about HerO, JD, MC etc.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17702 Posts
October 18 2013 04:31 GMT
#889
Updated with WCS AM ro16 completed. Working on GSL Finals edition now.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
October 18 2013 05:05 GMT
#890
On October 18 2013 13:26 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 13:24 coverpunch wrote:
Looks like Naniwa is Polt's biggest fan right now. Polt wins WCS America and does well in the season finals, Naniwa is in.

Unless Revival wins his WCS Challenger League group and ties with NaNiwa in points. ;o


Actually even if Revival ties NaNiwa they'd just be tied for 15th place so they'd both get in. The complication arises if both Revival ties NaNiwa AND someone (most likely soO) passes them in points, then NaNiwa and Revival are tied for 16th and you'd need some kind of tiebreaker.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17702 Posts
October 18 2013 05:20 GMT
#891
GSL Finals Edition is posted!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
scsnow
Profile Joined April 2010
Slovenia515 Posts
October 18 2013 06:38 GMT
#892
I like not only you update your program with results, but you are developing it all the time!
Basically I am looking this after every major results, especially for naniwa.

Great job man!
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia302 Posts
October 18 2013 06:58 GMT
#893
On October 18 2013 03:24 Yakikorosu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 03:02 xN.07)MaK wrote:
On October 17 2013 18:07 playnice wrote:
aLive is the Virus of the qualified players. I really wish Soo qualifies so we have another Zerg.


That's a bit disrespectful, tbh. Alive to win the whole thing!


I don't know, Virus wasn't that bad back in 2011.

But aLive is badly underrated. He's not a world-beater but he's very solid and he tends to show entertaining games. I've heard some casters refer to him as a kind of "boring" (i.e., predictable) player, but I have never felt that about him, I remember him doing fun stuff like proxy window mines. If anyone hasn't seen it, watch his series against First in the Season 2 finals QF (at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4ugXHZCPDI); TaeJa/INnoVation might have been the game of that tournament, but I think this was the best SERIES in the tournament.

I didn't mean it in a disrespectful way. Just saying that he is the odd man out of all the others.

Btw, great updates!
Nesserev
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Belgium2760 Posts
October 18 2013 10:27 GMT
#894
--- Nuked ---
dala
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden477 Posts
October 18 2013 12:49 GMT
#895
Super Big thank's to OP!
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
October 18 2013 13:12 GMT
#896
On October 18 2013 15:58 playnice wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 03:24 Yakikorosu wrote:
On October 18 2013 03:02 xN.07)MaK wrote:
On October 17 2013 18:07 playnice wrote:
aLive is the Virus of the qualified players. I really wish Soo qualifies so we have another Zerg.


That's a bit disrespectful, tbh. Alive to win the whole thing!


I don't know, Virus wasn't that bad back in 2011.

But aLive is badly underrated. He's not a world-beater but he's very solid and he tends to show entertaining games. I've heard some casters refer to him as a kind of "boring" (i.e., predictable) player, but I have never felt that about him, I remember him doing fun stuff like proxy window mines. If anyone hasn't seen it, watch his series against First in the Season 2 finals QF (at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4ugXHZCPDI); TaeJa/INnoVation might have been the game of that tournament, but I think this was the best SERIES in the tournament.

I didn't mean it in a disrespectful way. Just saying that he is the odd man out of all the others.

Btw, great updates!

That's what I thought! #1 Alive fan right here.
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
ffadicted
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3545 Posts
October 18 2013 16:02 GMT
#897
Great post Fizzy in Naniwa club outlining everyone's chances agains naniwa. Dear and soO are really scaring me, because they're both more than capable of getting top4/top2 at seasonal finals

On October 18 2013 18:43 Fizzy wrote:
Dear needs atleast 1451 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing top 2 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

soO needs atleast 901 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 8 at Season Finals OR by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

Trap needs atleast 1751 points, and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Unlikely

Genius needs atleast 1901 points and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Oz needs atleast 1601 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing 2nd at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Hack needs atleast 2501 points and can gain this by winning WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Macsed needs atleast 2001 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing top top 2 at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Vortix needs atleast 1051 points, and can gain this by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Impossible lol



I'm really scared about soO and Dear tbh. I guess the best think to do is back one up entirely rather then hoping they both fail, so we should cheer for soO in the finals? The Revival tiebreaker also scares me, makes me so pissed that he won those IEM points essentially for free. Blizzard should look at that and let naniwa in honestly, but likely it'll be some sort of Bo5 or Revival will find some way to get in from dirty EG esports money (loljk).

Plz nani plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
SooYoung-Noona!
Greendotz
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2053 Posts
October 18 2013 16:29 GMT
#898
On October 18 2013 14:20 Die4Ever wrote:
GSL Finals Edition is posted!


This thread is awesome, really adds to the hype, keep up the good work.
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 18 2013 17:48 GMT
#899
On October 19 2013 01:02 ffadicted wrote:
Great post Fizzy in Naniwa club outlining everyone's chances agains naniwa. Dear and soO are really scaring me, because they're both more than capable of getting top4/top2 at seasonal finals

Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 18:43 Fizzy wrote:
Dear needs atleast 1451 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing top 2 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

soO needs atleast 901 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 8 at Season Finals OR by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

Trap needs atleast 1751 points, and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Unlikely

Genius needs atleast 1901 points and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Oz needs atleast 1601 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing 2nd at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Hack needs atleast 2501 points and can gain this by winning WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Macsed needs atleast 2001 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing top top 2 at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Vortix needs atleast 1051 points, and can gain this by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Impossible lol



I'm really scared about soO and Dear tbh. I guess the best think to do is back one up entirely rather then hoping they both fail, so we should cheer for soO in the finals? The Revival tiebreaker also scares me, makes me so pissed that he won those IEM points essentially for free. Blizzard should look at that and let naniwa in honestly, but likely it'll be some sort of Bo5 or Revival will find some way to get in from dirty EG esports money (loljk).

Plz nani plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


I believe you are quite right there, Naniwafans should hope for soo to win, cause it forces Dear to make the finals. Otherwise we prob have a situation where both dear and soo playing quarterfinals and one of them MUST lose. That feels like a more uncomfortable situation.

The discussion about Revival I just fail to understand. He forfeited his spor in challengerbracket and will not even have the 25 xtra. I doubt they would dare give him those points in addition to his IEM-points, cause that would be a real scandal of course.

No just hope for Soo tomorrow and then dear have to face MMA, jaedong, Soulkey or Polt in the finalsbracket. That seems to be the most comforting situation.
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
October 18 2013 18:00 GMT
#900
On October 19 2013 01:02 ffadicted wrote:
Great post Fizzy in Naniwa club outlining everyone's chances agains naniwa. Dear and soO are really scaring me, because they're both more than capable of getting top4/top2 at seasonal finals

Show nested quote +
On October 18 2013 18:43 Fizzy wrote:
Dear needs atleast 1451 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing top 2 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

soO needs atleast 901 points, and can gain this by either winning the WCS Kr finals tomorrow and then placing top 8 at Season Finals OR by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Very Likely

Trap needs atleast 1751 points, and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Unlikely

Genius needs atleast 1901 points and can gain this by winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Oz needs atleast 1601 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing 2nd at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Very Unlikely

Hack needs atleast 2501 points and can gain this by winning WCS NA and then winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Macsed needs atleast 2001 points and can gain this by either winning WCS NA and then placing top 4 at Season Finals OR by placing 2nd-4th at WCS NA and then placing top top 2 at Season Finals OR by placing 5th-6th at WCS NA and winning the Season Finals.
Impossible

Vortix needs atleast 1051 points, and can gain this by placing top 4 at the Season Finals.
Impossible lol



I'm really scared about soO and Dear tbh. I guess the best think to do is back one up entirely rather then hoping they both fail, so we should cheer for soO in the finals? The Revival tiebreaker also scares me, makes me so pissed that he won those IEM points essentially for free. Blizzard should look at that and let naniwa in honestly, but likely it'll be some sort of Bo5 or Revival will find some way to get in from dirty EG esports money (loljk).

Plz nani plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


I don't think those Fizzy numbers are right. I didn't check them all, but just for example if VortiX finishes 3rd-4th in Season Finals, he's still slightly behind NaNiwa. Even though that gives +1500 points and he's currently listed as about 1100 points behind NaNiwa, keep in mind the numbers in the standings already factor in everyone qualified for Season Finals getting 500 points as the minimum you could get. So VortiX would actually need to make it to the finals to pass NaNiwa.
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