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Hyun and Scarlett are effectively out of the running as of today's results, which leaves
SoO
900 points short
still has WCS KR finals to play (+500) and making the quarterfinals at the season final would give him another +500.
If he makes the semis of the season finals he makes it (+1000).
Vortix
1050 points short. Has to make it to the Season finals (+1500) to make it to blizzcon.
Dear
1450 points short
Has to either reach season finals (+1500), or win WCS KR (+500) and make the semis of the season finals (+1000).
Oz
1600 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he qualifies if he doesn't finish last in his group at the season finals (+750)
If he makes 2nd/3rd/4th (+500/+250), he will need to reach the semifinals of the season finals(+1500)
Any lower in WCS AM, he will have to qualify for Blizzcon and make the finals (+2000)
Trap
1750 points short
Needs to win season finals
Genius
1900 points short
Needs to win season finals
MacSed
2000 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he needs to reach the quarterfinals of the season finals to force a tie (+1000)
If he finishes 2nd in WCS AM (+500), he will need to reach the semi finals to force a tie (+1500)
Any lower and he will need to reach the finals of the season finals to have a shot at making Blizzcon.
Of which Oz Dear and SoO are the real contenders to knock down Naniwa and Hyun, barring freak runs from the other players.
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We've improved to a 75% to have a foreigner at Blizzcon? Wow
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Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky
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You'd have thought that Hyun losing was good news for everyone else, yet Trap lost 0.2% for some reason
Naniwa still needs either Dear or soO to screw up at some point (preferably soO since Dear is farther behind). But yeah it's getting believable.
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On October 17 2013 13:29 Nebuchad wrote:
You'd have thought that Hyun losing was good news for everyone else, yet Trap lost 0.2% for some reason
Naniwa still needs either Dear or soO to screw up at some point (preferably soO since Dear is farther behind). But yeah it's getting believable.
Probably because it's now more likely that Hack will pass him, whereas prior to this Hack was projected to not make it past the RO16.
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China6331 Posts
On October 17 2013 13:51 Yakikorosu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:29 Nebuchad wrote:
You'd have thought that Hyun losing was good news for everyone else, yet Trap lost 0.2% for some reason
Naniwa still needs either Dear or soO to screw up at some point (preferably soO since Dear is farther behind). But yeah it's getting believable. Probably because it's now more likely that Hack will pass him, whereas prior to this Hack was projected to not make it past the RO16.
Hack is 2800 less than Naniwa which renders him almost impossible to make to BlizzCon unless he wins big time in both WCS AM and Season Finals. I'll eat a hat if he ends up like that.
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On October 17 2013 14:02 digmouse wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:51 Yakikorosu wrote:On October 17 2013 13:29 Nebuchad wrote:
You'd have thought that Hyun losing was good news for everyone else, yet Trap lost 0.2% for some reason
Naniwa still needs either Dear or soO to screw up at some point (preferably soO since Dear is farther behind). But yeah it's getting believable. Probably because it's now more likely that Hack will pass him, whereas prior to this Hack was projected to not make it past the RO16. Hack is 2800 less than Naniwa which renders him almost impossible to make to BlizzCon unless he wins big time in both WCS AM and Season Finals. I'll eat a hat if he ends up like that.
Yes, but if you look on the list in the OP Hack is now significantly more likely to make it to Blizzcon than Trap is. That's not because Hack is amazing it's because Trap only has the S3 finals left, whereas Hack could potentially make it quite far in WCS NA. Frankly I can see Hack getting a good draw and making it quite far. He's not very likely to beat Jaedong or HerO, but could he beat Heart or MacSed or Oz? Absolutely. I'd have him as a favorite over any of those three.
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Edit: Nvm, calculated wrong.
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So once WCS AM Group D is done I'll do a GSL Finals edition update. I'm gonna do a full run assuming Dear wins GSL, and a full run assuming soO wins GSL. And of course I'll have the normal current results run. But this way you'll be able to see how the GSL finals will affect everything.
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On October 17 2013 14:24 Die4Ever wrote:
So once WCS AM Group D is done I'll do a GSL Finals edition update. I'm gonna do a full run assuming Dear wins GSL, and a full run assuming soO wins GSL. And of course I'll have the normal current results run. But this way you'll be able to see how the GSL finals will affect everything.
You're awesome dude!
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Russian Federation66 Posts
On October 17 2013 14:21 TheSilverfox wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:08 jupiterstorm wrote:
Hyun and Scarlett are effectively out of the running as of today's results, which leaves
SoO
900 points short
still has WCS KR finals to play (+500) and making the quarterfinals at the season final would give him another +500.
If he makes the semis of the season finals he makes it (+1000).
Vortix
1050 points short. Has to make it to the Season finals (+1500) to make it to blizzcon.
Dear
1450 points short
Has to either reach season finals (+1500), or win WCS KR (+500) and make the semis of the season finals (+1000).
Oz
1600 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he qualifies if he doesn't finish last in his group at the season finals (+750)
If he makes 2nd/3rd/4th (+500/+250), he will need to reach the semifinals of the season finals(+1500)
Any lower in WCS AM, he will have to qualify for Blizzcon and make the finals (+2000)
Trap
1750 points short
Needs to win season finals
Genius
1900 points short
Needs to win season finals
MacSed
2000 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he needs to reach the quarterfinals of the season finals to force a tie (+1000)
If he finishes 2nd in WCS AM (+500), he will need to reach the semi finals to force a tie (+1500)
Any lower and he will need to reach the finals of the season finals to have a shot at making Blizzcon.
Of which Oz Dear and SoO are the real contenders to knock down Naniwa and Hyun, barring freak runs from the other players. This is not correct. For players like Vortix, Dear and Oz 500p is already added to their total points. You don't get +1500 if you reach the final of Season 3, you get +1000p. Example: Vortix has to win Season 3 finals, that's his only chance. He right now he has 2150p where 500p from Season Finals is included. 2nd place there will add him a total of 1000p and he will be at 3150p which is not enough.
2nd place in Season Finals provides a player with 2000p. So it's actually +1500p, not +1000p. And if VortiX gets there, he'll have 3650 points which is enough to qualify for the Blizzcon.
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in the GSL finals edition, should I give a 50 point aligulac bonus to the assumed GSL winner? I think they're both actually currently underrated anyways.
edit: I just looked at their current ratings...maybe a 100 point bonus? lol
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On October 17 2013 14:35 Dalnore wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 14:21 TheSilverfox wrote:On October 17 2013 13:08 jupiterstorm wrote:
Hyun and Scarlett are effectively out of the running as of today's results, which leaves
SoO
900 points short
still has WCS KR finals to play (+500) and making the quarterfinals at the season final would give him another +500.
If he makes the semis of the season finals he makes it (+1000).
Vortix
1050 points short. Has to make it to the Season finals (+1500) to make it to blizzcon.
Dear
1450 points short
Has to either reach season finals (+1500), or win WCS KR (+500) and make the semis of the season finals (+1000).
Oz
1600 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he qualifies if he doesn't finish last in his group at the season finals (+750)
If he makes 2nd/3rd/4th (+500/+250), he will need to reach the semifinals of the season finals(+1500)
Any lower in WCS AM, he will have to qualify for Blizzcon and make the finals (+2000)
Trap
1750 points short
Needs to win season finals
Genius
1900 points short
Needs to win season finals
MacSed
2000 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he needs to reach the quarterfinals of the season finals to force a tie (+1000)
If he finishes 2nd in WCS AM (+500), he will need to reach the semi finals to force a tie (+1500)
Any lower and he will need to reach the finals of the season finals to have a shot at making Blizzcon.
Of which Oz Dear and SoO are the real contenders to knock down Naniwa and Hyun, barring freak runs from the other players. This is not correct. For players like Vortix, Dear and Oz 500p is already added to their total points. You don't get +1500 if you reach the final of Season 3, you get +1000p. Example: Vortix has to win Season 3 finals, that's his only chance. He right now he has 2150p where 500p from Season Finals is included. 2nd place there will add him a total of 1000p and he will be at 3150p which is not enough. 2nd place in Season Finals provides a player with 2000p. So it's actually +1500p, not +1000p. And if VortiX gets there, he'll have 3650 points which is enough to qualify for the Blizzcon.
Yes, you're correct. I assumed 1500p for 2nd place for some weird reason. I blame it on lack of coffee in the morning  .
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On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky
Skill is when luck becomes the norm... 
On October 17 2013 14:33 XtreMe_au wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 14:24 Die4Ever wrote:
So once WCS AM Group D is done I'll do a GSL Finals edition update. I'm gonna do a full run assuming Dear wins GSL, and a full run assuming soO wins GSL. And of course I'll have the normal current results run. But this way you'll be able to see how the GSL finals will affect everything. You're awesome dude!
Yes you are awesome dude.
AND GO NANIWA!
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On October 17 2013 15:39 Doublemint wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky Skill is when luck becomes the norm... Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 14:33 XtreMe_au wrote:On October 17 2013 14:24 Die4Ever wrote:
So once WCS AM Group D is done I'll do a GSL Finals edition update. I'm gonna do a full run assuming Dear wins GSL, and a full run assuming soO wins GSL. And of course I'll have the normal current results run. But this way you'll be able to see how the GSL finals will affect everything. You're awesome dude! Yes you are awesome dude. AND GO NANIWA!
Naniwa with his voodoo dolls.
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On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky
You actually have no idea how lucky... If Blizzard wasn't terrible at scheduling everything Revival might have been able to play his Challenger League matches instead of forfeiting due to being on a plane to IEM New York... and due to Ryung also forfeiting because of his family emergency he'd only have to beat puCK and one of the losers of tomorrow's Ro16 group and he'd be 50 points ahead of NaNiwa tomorrow and their situations in the rankings would be swapped. lol
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On October 17 2013 15:47 Elite_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky You actually have no idea how lucky... If Blizzard wasn't terrible at scheduling everything Revival might have been able to play his Challenger League matches instead of forfeiting due to being on a plane to IEM New York... and due to Ryung also forfeiting because of his family emergency he'd only have to beat puCK and one of the losers of tomorrow's Ro16 group and he'd be 50 points ahead of NaNiwa tomorrow and their situations in the rankings would be swapped. lol
Exactly, he lost 50 points cause he was on his way to IEM NY where he should have not been, and gained 150 points.
Lot of things could have been different.
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On October 17 2013 15:47 Elite_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky You actually have no idea how lucky... If Blizzard wasn't terrible at scheduling everything Revival might have been able to play his Challenger League matches instead of forfeiting due to being on a plane to IEM New York... and due to Ryung also forfeiting because of his family emergency he'd only have to beat puCK and one of the losers of tomorrow's Ro16 group and he'd be 50 points ahead of NaNiwa tomorrow and their situations in the rankings would be swapped. lol
But... Didn't IEM NY provide a better opportunity for him to make even MORE points by doing well there? You know, just like Naniwa?
Now talking about how the easy points would have been better is kind of not cool...
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Sweden636 Posts
On October 17 2013 15:47 Elite_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 13:18 Dodgin wrote:
Seems like Naniwa is getting quite lucky You actually have no idea how lucky... If Blizzard wasn't terrible at scheduling everything Revival might have been able to play his Challenger League matches instead of forfeiting due to being on a plane to IEM New York... and due to Ryung also forfeiting because of his family emergency he'd only have to beat puCK and one of the losers of tomorrow's Ro16 group and he'd be 50 points ahead of NaNiwa tomorrow and their situations in the rankings would be swapped. lol
Id say that Revival getting a last minute invite to IEM and at a minumum 75 points was pretty damn lucky for him rather. And Naniwa hasnt had any real luck with the other resluts. in WCS EU it was almost the worst results possible for him with regards to qualifying to season finals (I think stardust instead of Genius is the only thing that could have been worse). In WCS Korea it would have been soooo much better if soulkey and maru played the finals instead... WCS AM delivers on the luck though with both scarlett and Hyun out but I would hardly say hes been lucky as a whole
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On October 17 2013 13:08 jupiterstorm wrote:
Hyun and Scarlett are effectively out of the running as of today's results, which leaves
SoO
900 points short
still has WCS KR finals to play (+500) and making the quarterfinals at the season final would give him another +500.
If he makes the semis of the season finals he makes it (+1000).
Vortix
1050 points short. Has to make it to the Season finals (+1500) to make it to blizzcon.
Dear
1450 points short
Has to either reach season finals (+1500), or win WCS KR (+500) and make the semis of the season finals (+1000).
Oz
1600 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he qualifies if he doesn't finish last in his group at the season finals (+750)
If he makes 2nd/3rd/4th (+500/+250), he will need to reach the semifinals of the season finals(+1500)
Any lower in WCS AM, he will have to qualify for Blizzcon and make the finals (+2000)
Trap
1750 points short
Needs to win season finals
Genius
1900 points short
Needs to win season finals
MacSed
2000 points short
If he wins WCS AM (+1000), he needs to reach the quarterfinals of the season finals to force a tie (+1000)
If he finishes 2nd in WCS AM (+500), he will need to reach the semi finals to force a tie (+1500)
Any lower and he will need to reach the finals of the season finals to have a shot at making Blizzcon.
Of which Oz Dear and SoO are the real contenders to knock down Naniwa and Hyun, barring freak runs from the other players.
Dont forget Revival who only needs to win a probably pretty easy challenger league group..
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EPT
