EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 41
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Darkhorse
United States23455 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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argonautdice
Canada2719 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17720 Posts
On October 16 2013 12:12 argonautdice wrote: Just realized something really interesting: Revival is at 3175 points while Naniwa is at 3200. Revival currently has 25 points guaranteed for challenger, but if he wins his challenger group stage then he can earn another 25 points, tying with Naniwa. So if 3200 is the points needed for 16th place, we might have a tie breaker match between Revival and Naniwa :o Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. | ||
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argonautdice
Canada2719 Posts
On October 16 2013 12:14 Die4Ever wrote: Yep Revival is still in the running. We don't yet know how the tie breakers will be done, but right now it's doing 50/50 odds on the tie breaker of Revival vs Naniwa if it happens. Cool, I'm actually kind of excited if that actually happens. It'd be a duel to the death with everything on the line for that much coveted 16th spot to Blizzcon. | ||
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tili
United States1332 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
On October 16 2013 12:23 argonautdice wrote: Cool, I'm actually kind of excited if that actually happens. It'd be a duel to the death with everything on the line for that much coveted 16th spot to Blizzcon. If Revival ends up taking Naniwas spot to Blizzcon it would really piss me off. IEM for some reason gave a qualifier spot to someone who wasnt even close to qualifying from what I can find. I know there where invites aswell but ForGG forfited a qualifier spot and therefore it should really have gone to someone else imo. IEM really had no business giving someone free WCS points especially in such a tight situation. Atleast put him in the open bracket. Oh well, we will see what happens I guess it just feels a bit unfair. | ||
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Kheve
323 Posts
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Iceman331
United States1306 Posts
This happens 6.010% of the time. When it does, it increases VortiX's chances to 100.000%. -------------------------------------------VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.174% of the time. When it does, it increases VortiX's chances to 99.999%. I thought this was kind of comical. The realistic chances of VortiX getting these results are pretty much 0. It must really, really suck to be Naniwa right now. He's so close and can do nothing but watch and pray... | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
edit Let me see. If Dear wins the GSL he'll move up to 2250 points (950 less than Nani) and soO will stay at 2300 points (900 less than Nani). This means they would both need Ro4 (grants an additional 1000 on top of the 500 they already earned) finishes to pass him in the standings since the 500 from the season final qualification is already factored in so that's 900/950 additional points If soO wins the GSL he'll move up to 2800 points (400 less than Nani) and Dear will stay at 1750 (1450 less than Nani). This would mean that soO would need a Ro8 finish and Dear would need to get top 2 for 1500 more points (in addition to the 500 he's already earned for the season finals). I guess overall it looks like it doesn't matter too much. | ||
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lystier
China877 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On October 16 2013 12:33 doffe wrote: If Revival ends up taking Naniwas spot to Blizzcon it would really piss me off. IEM for some reason gave a qualifier spot to someone who wasnt even close to qualifying from what I can find. I know there where invites aswell but ForGG forfited a qualifier spot and therefore it should really have gone to someone else imo. IEM really had no business giving someone free WCS points especially in such a tight situation. Atleast put him in the open bracket. Oh well, we will see what happens I guess it just feels a bit unfair. Revival definitely lucked out with the IEM NY thing, but he did make it to the finals of WCS NA S1 and won IEM Shanghai, both of which are things NaNiwa hasn't achieved this year. Not really fair to say he "wasn't close to qualifying"--definitely been a career year for the Zerg. | ||
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
On October 16 2013 14:41 Yakikorosu wrote: Revival definitely lucked out with the IEM NY thing, but he did make it to the finals of WCS NA S1 and won IEM Shanghai, both of which are things NaNiwa hasn't achieved this year. Not really fair to say he "wasn't close to qualifying"--definitely been a career year for the Zerg. I mean not close to qualifying to IEM NY. Im not saying hes not good or has had a good year. My point being only that Naniwa went through a qualifier to get there and he suddenly gets a free spot. Hardly seems fair when so much is on the line. Sure Im very biased cause I so want a non korean at blizzcon. | ||
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
On October 16 2013 14:41 Yakikorosu wrote: Revival definitely lucked out with the IEM NY thing, but he did make it to the finals of WCS NA S1 and won IEM Shanghai, both of which are things NaNiwa hasn't achieved this year. Not really fair to say he "wasn't close to qualifying"--definitely been a career year for the Zerg. I mean, if he "wasn't close to qualifying" he wouldn't be threatening Nani's spot for Blizzcon lol ah, clarified | ||
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
On October 16 2013 14:54 slowbacontron wrote: I mean, if he "wasn't close to qualifying" he wouldn't be threatening Nani's spot for Blizzcon lol ah, clarified Honestly I wouldnt have minded if it atleast was so that groupplay didnt guarantuee points. simply the fact that revival got invited to the group forcedd Nani to get ro4 instead of r08 to pass him.. it was a huge deal and the biggest tourney this whole year on the line. Its a bit much imo | ||
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WallieP
Netherlands425 Posts
(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Bracket_Stage) | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
-------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Dear STX gets 2nd place in Korea Premier -------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 6.883% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.898%. -------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals -------------------------------------------HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement -------------------------------------------soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.100% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 70.302%. Who is Soo actually competing with? He will be on 3300 points, tied with Duckdeok, passed Naniwa. And it lists results from Maru, Dear and Hyun. So who is he actually competing against? I thought Revival cannot get passed 2300 points. Is it Vortix? | ||
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