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On October 19 2013 02:48 Bertholdz wrote:
The discussion about Revival I just fail to understand. He forfeited his spor in challengerbracket and will not even have the 25 xtra. I doubt they would dare give him those points in addition to his IEM-points, cause that would be a real scandal of course.
He forfeited his spot in Challenger BRACKET, but that means he can still play in the Challenger GROUP. Finishing top 2 in the Challenger Group awards you 25 WCS points.
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
This thread has done more for Blizzcon hype than Blizzard ever did tbh.
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On October 19 2013 03:03 Yakikorosu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2013 02:48 Bertholdz wrote:
The discussion about Revival I just fail to understand. He forfeited his spor in challengerbracket and will not even have the 25 xtra. I doubt they would dare give him those points in addition to his IEM-points, cause that would be a real scandal of course.
He forfeited his spot in Challenger BRACKET, but that means he can still play in the Challenger GROUP. Finishing top 2 in the Challenger Group awards you 25 WCS points.
Ah i see, didnt know that group-qualification gave you any additional points.
But well, even a tiebreaker would be unfair anyway. Either Nani gets the spot or the world is a disgusting place;)
All of us sitting with voodoo-dolls with Revivals and Dears name on them can still save it though;)
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On October 19 2013 03:15 Bertholdz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2013 03:03 Yakikorosu wrote:On October 19 2013 02:48 Bertholdz wrote:
The discussion about Revival I just fail to understand. He forfeited his spor in challengerbracket and will not even have the 25 xtra. I doubt they would dare give him those points in addition to his IEM-points, cause that would be a real scandal of course.
He forfeited his spot in Challenger BRACKET, but that means he can still play in the Challenger GROUP. Finishing top 2 in the Challenger Group awards you 25 WCS points. Ah i see, didnt know that group-qualification gave you any additional points. But well, even a tiebreaker would be unfair anyway. Either Nani gets the spot or the world is a disgusting place;) All of us sitting with voodoo-dolls with Revivals and Dears name on them can still save it though;)
The challenger group stage gives points for WCS AM and WCS EU, but not WCS KR. WCS KR challenger only gets points from the bracket.
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On October 19 2013 03:03 lolfail9001 wrote:
This thread has done more for Blizzcon hype than Blizzard ever did tbh.
That is so true. I probably check this thread 5 times a day. 
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[QUOTE]On October 19 2013 03:28 Die4Ever wrote:
I see. Thank you for that clarification!
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19. VortiX, 1902084/15000000, minimum 2150 points, needs at least 3650 points, 12.6806%
GO VORTIX!!!! I BELIEVE!
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On October 19 2013 12:06 Iceman331 wrote:
19. VortiX, 1902084/15000000, minimum 2150 points, needs at least 3650 points, 12.6806%
GO VORTIX!!!! I BELIEVE!
I BELIEVE TOO !!
Now we need someone to bet eating a hat if he does it..
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On October 19 2013 14:15 xN.07)MaK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2013 12:06 Iceman331 wrote:
19. VortiX, 1902084/15000000, minimum 2150 points, needs at least 3650 points, 12.6806%
GO VORTIX!!!! I BELIEVE! I BELIEVE TOO !! Now we need someone to bet eating a hat if he does it..
I said I'd eat a lamp if Innovation beat Soulkey in the GSL finals. I'll take this bet too.
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On October 19 2013 14:33 LittleRedBoy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2013 14:15 xN.07)MaK wrote:On October 19 2013 12:06 Iceman331 wrote:
19. VortiX, 1902084/15000000, minimum 2150 points, needs at least 3650 points, 12.6806%
GO VORTIX!!!! I BELIEVE! I BELIEVE TOO !! Now we need someone to bet eating a hat if he does it.. I said I'd eat a lamp if Innovation beat Soulkey in the GSL finals. I'll take this bet too.
Everyone knew Inno vs Soulkey was close tho 
betting Vortix doesnt make it is like betting the sun will still come up in the morning
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So Naniwa's and mvp's chances are better when Dear wins?
I know for who I'll be rooting in GSL finals then
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Chances are looking better for Naniwa now
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United States97276 Posts
I mean it was going to be relatively the same with either winner, right? What matters for Naniwa if the people who already have enough points keep on winning in the season finals
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Well Dear has already won so it can be edited now.
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On October 19 2013 22:15 Nirel wrote:
Well Dear has already won so it can be edited now.
Are you sure about that? Are you sure that it can be edited, now that Dear has already won? You still have time to think it over. Nobody will look down on you if you take it back. It's ok to be wrong sometimes.
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On October 19 2013 21:56 Shellshock wrote:
I mean it was going to be relatively the same with either winner, right? What matters for Naniwa if the people who already have enough points keep on winning in the season finals
If SoO would've won he would only need ro8 (ro4 for Dear) if he won. Now both need ro4 which is quite a big difference.
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Oh Dear this will be Soo exciting. As long as Naniwa doesn't get into some Genius Trap or something, I can´t really see how the Hack he will fail to become the Blizzcon-Hero.
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I made a maybe easier to read post for people that want to know how is NaNiwa's situation right now.
+ Show Spoiler +ByuL has 600 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 1st place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3600 points)
6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3600 points)
Hack has 700 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if: 1st place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points)
2nd place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points)
6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3700 points)
Heart has 750 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 1st place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3250 points)
2nd place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3250 points)
6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3750 points)
MacSed has 1200 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if: 1st place in WCS NA and 8th place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points)
2nd place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points)
6th place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points)
Genius has 1300 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3800 points)
Trap has 1450 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3950 points)
Oz has 1600 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 1st place in WCS NA and 12th place in Season 3 Finals (3350 points)
4th place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3350 points)
6th place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3600 points)
Vortix has 2150 points, he can pass NaNiwa if: 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3650 points)
Dear has 2250 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if: 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3250 points)
soO has 2300 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if: 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3300 points)
Revival has 3175 points, he can tie NaNiwa if: 2th place in his Group in Challenger League (3200 points)
For today's Ro8 in WCS NA, the best would be for Jaedong > Hack, ByuL > MacSed, Polt > Heart, HerO > Oz, and then Hack and Heart to grab the 5th and 6th place.
Also, a lot of ties are possible, I wonder what Blizzard will do if that happens...
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I think Naniwa's chances are even better than listed. The simulation factors in aligulac's ratings, which inflates foreigners odds when predicting results against koreans (so Vortix likely has a smaller chance than listed).
I mean:
"VortiX gets 2nd place or better in Season 3 Finals
This happens 12.696% of the time."
There is no way this can be accurate. Vortix has an aligulac rating on par with DonrgRaeGu and Parting, being better than Rain, Trap, soO and Dear for instance (all players that can't boost their ratings on Zotac Cup or similar).
Aligulac is very good in rating players that usually compete in the same tournaments, but it gets messed up when comparing players from two different ecosystems.
To be more specific, Vortix had a great rating boost in september playing against foreigners (thorzain, babyk, tefel, TLO, huk, kas, happy, elfi, bratok, bly, showtime, noname and achilles). His wins against koreans were KR-EU cross server online play.
I'd guess Nani's qualification chances to be around 80-85%.
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EPT
