EPTOn October 20 2013 07:06 opisska wrote:
He needs to get there in the first place ...
He needs to get there in the first place ...
I'd say that's kinda implied in winning it yes
Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 48
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
I'd say that's kinda implied in winning it yes | ||
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Seekzor
Sweden49 Posts
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RyF
Austria508 Posts
On October 20 2013 07:43 Seekzor wrote: Thanks a lot Die4Ever for doing this. Live updating probability of players advancing really improves my entertainment. Your work is appreciated by a lot of people. word! | ||
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Too_MuchZerg
Finland2818 Posts
-------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 38.800% of the time. When it does, it increases MacSed's chances to 5.663%. -------------------------------------------MacSed gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 61.200% of the time. When it does, it decreases MacSed's chances to 1.025%. So twisted luck for Macsed. Btw Is there really 15 million simulations left still? | ||
The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 08:44 Too_MuchZerg wrote: From MacSed... -------------------------------------------ByuL gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 38.800% of the time. When it does, it increases MacSed's chances to 5.663%. -------------------------------------------MacSed gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 61.200% of the time. When it does, it decreases MacSed's chances to 1.025%. So twisted luck for Macsed. Btw Is there really 15 million simulations left still? yea it's still doing 15 million simulations, it only looks for game changers in 4 million of them though. I don't have enough ram to remember/look for game changers in all 15 million, and it would also take many hours. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On October 20 2013 08:50 Die4Ever wrote: yea it's still doing 15 million simulations, it only looks for game changers in 4 million of them though. I don't have enough ram to remember/look for game changers in all 15 million, and it would also take many hours. Yeah, the number of possibilities is so high due to the groups permutations for season3 finals. I think once those are set. Then the number of simulations drop drastically. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 08:54 vthree wrote: Yeah, the number of possibilities is so high due to the groups permutations for season3 finals. I think once those are set. Then the number of simulations drop drastically. The number of simulations is my choice, I might lower it a little bit just because it'll be overkill for such a small number of possibilities, but I'll keep it in the millions for sure. | ||
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Zheryn
Sweden3653 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 10:00 Zheryn wrote: Will you do a run right after WCS AM ro8 is done? Looking very good for Naniwa so far with JD, ByuL and Polt winning. I'm doing a run after every match for the rest of WCS AM. The run with the results of Polt vs Heart is almost done. | ||
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Tminus____
249 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
Oz starts in the round of 4 in America Premier facing Polt Oz loses this match 84.163% of the time, which decreases Oz's chances to 15.954%. Oz wins this match 15.837% of the time, which increases Oz's chances to 34.059%. Ouch... Even ByuL's terrible ZvZ against Jaedong's ZvZ has a better chance than Oz. D: | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 11:25 Elite_ wrote: Ouch... Even ByuL's terrible ZvZ against Jaedong's ZvZ has a better chance than Oz. D: Polt is on a pretty sick win streak lol | ||
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Elite_
United States4259 Posts
and I just checked ByuL's ZvZ... It's jumped up to 70% in HotS from the abysmal 35% it was in WoL. Oh... and about Polt... + Show Spoiler [Is Polt the next Zerg bonjwa?] + In HotS, Polt is 267–92 (74.37%) in games and 116–24 (82.86%) in matches. http://aligulac.com/players/19/results/?after=&before=&race=ptzr&country=all&bestof=all&offline=both&game=HotS&op=Filter | ||
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ArtistenSc2
Sweden53 Posts
This is after WCS A RO8 was played . SEASON 3 FINALS Placements needed in WCS S3 Finals to surpass NaniWa's 3.200p/to get to BlizzConn (remember that one can surpass, it's ok, Nani is in 15th place atm..) Need 1st place : Trap, Genius, Heart*,Hack* %=2-5-2-2 Need 2nd place : Vortix, Macsed* %=1-2 Need 3-4th place : Dear, Soo, Oz** (if 2-4th place in wcs A) %=20-40-10 Need 5-8th place : Need 9-12th place : Oz** (if first place in wcs A) %=80 RESUME - The Deal-breakers : Oz : not winning the WCS A - if so high risk for passing S3 Finals : max one of Oz, Dear, Soo gets into RO 4 Edit : Revival : if first or second in group in Challenger he ties with Nani. (wonder how Blizz might handle a tie) Crazy it should become this close... crossing my fingers... go Nani - HF ! ps. and yes it's my first post, been following Nani for long now | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
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