EPTThere are several outcomes where there can be ties, wonder how blizz will handle such a thing...
invite both in for an opening match as a decider who enters BlizzConn?
Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 49
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ArtistenSc2
Sweden53 Posts
There are several outcomes where there can be ties, wonder how blizz will handle such a thing... invite both in for an opening match as a decider who enters BlizzConn? | ||
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On October 20 2013 13:12 ArtistenSc2 wrote: Oops, hmm darn ;-) well that seems pretty likely tbh. There are several outcomes where there can be ties, wonder how blizz will handle such a thing... invite both in for an opening match as a decider who enters BlizzConn? I don't know. The schedule is already pretty tight (6 hours for Ro16). Although they could hold a special play-in before hand (just not the day of) | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
On October 20 2013 14:39 Mohdoo wrote: How are Naniwa's chances looking atm? Just check the OP, Die4ever keeps it updated surprisingly well. He's at about a 69% chance, which is pretty good. | ||
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Koerage
Netherlands1220 Posts
On October 20 2013 14:44 slowbacontron wrote: Just check the OP, Die4ever keeps it updated surprisingly well. He's at about a 69% chance, which is pretty good. that's what his chances would've been if he'd won IEM NY, but that was before the american ro16 was played, so he improved alot since then (mostly cuz hyun fell out). Its getting more likely by the day he's actually making it in, which would be really nice | ||
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75
Germany4057 Posts
On October 20 2013 16:54 Koerage wrote: that's what his chances would've been if he'd won IEM NY, but that was before the american ro16 was played, so he improved alot since then (mostly cuz hyun fell out). Its getting more likely by the day he's actually making it in, which would be really nice like slowbacontron said. he is updating frequently. last update was yesterday. so hyun is already out in his calculations. or did i miss sth and koerage is right? | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On October 20 2013 16:54 Koerage wrote: that's what his chances would've been if he'd won IEM NY, but that was before the american ro16 was played, so he improved alot since then (mostly cuz hyun fell out). Its getting more likely by the day he's actually making it in, which would be really nice ? The current % for Naniwa is listed as 68.857%, which is updated thru AM Ro8. So what exactly are you trying to correct about slowbacon's post??? o.O | ||
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ArtistenSc2
Sweden53 Posts
These are his biggest threats (only one of them can succeed in order for Nani to stay top 16) : Oz : if winning the WCS America Oz will most likely pass Nani after the Season 3 Finals Season 3 Finals : any of Oz (if 2-4th place in America), Dear and Soo that gets into RO4 passes Nani Revival : passing if winning his group in Challenger (if 2nd or 3rd it's a tie, if 4th he stays behind) So as you can see it's roughly 50/50 (Revival should at least tie with Nani, one of Oz/Dear/Soo might get RO4). The drama continues tonite with Oz in the American Semifinals. Next weekend is the Season 3 Finals. In the following week is the American Challenger with Revival :-) | ||
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Jerom
Netherlands588 Posts
On October 20 2013 20:36 ArtistenSc2 wrote: Nani is 15th right now and top 16 players gets to BlizzCon. These are his biggest threats (only one of them can succeed in order for Nani to stay top 16) : Oz : if winning the WCS America Oz will most likely pass Nani after the Season 3 Finals Season 3 Finals : any of Oz (if 2-4th place in America), Dear and Soo that gets into RO4 passes Nani Revival : passing if winning his group in Challenger (if 2nd or 3rd it's a tie, if 4th he stays behind) So as you can see it's roughly 50/50 (Revival should at least tie with Nani, one of Oz/Dear/Soo might get RO4). The drama continues tonite with Oz in the American Semifinals. Next weekend is the Season 3 Finals. In the following week is the American Challenger with Revival :-) I don't think Revival can still tie with Naniwa actually. | ||
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Dalnore
Russian Federation66 Posts
On October 20 2013 20:36 ArtistenSc2 wrote: Nani is 15th right now and top 16 players gets to BlizzCon. These are his biggest threats (only one of them can succeed in order for Nani to stay top 16) : Oz : if winning the WCS America Oz will most likely pass Nani after the Season 3 Finals Season 3 Finals : any of Oz (if 2-4th place in America), Dear and Soo that gets into RO4 passes Nani Revival : passing if winning his group in Challenger (if 2nd or 3rd it's a tie, if 4th he stays behind) So as you can see it's roughly 50/50 (Revival should at least tie with Nani, one of Oz/Dear/Soo might get RO4). The drama continues tonite with Oz in the American Semifinals. Next weekend is the Season 3 Finals. In the following week is the American Challenger with Revival :-) Revival can't pass NaNiwa. Both 1st and 2nd place in his Challenger group will give him only 25 extra points. So he can only tie with NaNiwa. | ||
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
Depending on the result tomorrow for WCS America's last two spots, we may also have a very P-heavy season finals. | ||
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ArtistenSc2
Sweden53 Posts
He can't pass Nani, it raises also some hope of him becoming 3rd or 4th... ;-) | ||
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doffe
Sweden636 Posts
On October 20 2013 20:59 Jerom wrote: I don't think Revival can still tie with Naniwa actually. well no matter if you think so or not getting 1st or 2nd in the challenger group play will tie him with Naniwa. And there is nothing saying he automatically forfeits them aswell just cause he did so in the bracket stage. He most likely will and definitely can tie Nani | ||
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Jerom
Netherlands588 Posts
On October 21 2013 05:46 doffe wrote: well no matter if you think so or not getting 1st or 2nd in the challenger group play will tie him with Naniwa. And there is nothing saying he automatically forfeits them aswell just cause he did so in the bracket stage. He most likely will and definitely can tie Nani Yes you are right. I thought he just automatically got his 25 points because the simulation mentions nothing about his challenger league matches. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17702 Posts
On October 21 2013 05:46 doffe wrote: well no matter if you think so or not getting 1st or 2nd in the challenger group play will tie him with Naniwa. And there is nothing saying he automatically forfeits them aswell just cause he did so in the bracket stage. He most likely will and definitely can tie Nani I just noticed that WCS AM Challenger isn't gonna finish until less than a week before blizzcon lol. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17702 Posts
On October 21 2013 05:51 Jerom wrote: Yes you are right. I thought he just automatically got his 25 points because the simulation mentions nothing about his challenger league matches. It mentions it in the game changers -------------------------------------------Revival gets 24th place in America Challenger | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17702 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17702 Posts
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Tanukki
Finland579 Posts
Let's be real, this is the only thing that matters. If he doesn't qualify, there will be rage, there will be match fixing accusations, and all around murdering of e-sports. | ||
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Dodgin
Canada39254 Posts
On October 21 2013 07:59 Tanukki wrote: NaNiwa 68.5216% Let's be real, this is the only thing that matters. If he doesn't qualify, there will be rage, there will be match fixing accusations, and all around murdering of e-sports. why does naniwa deserve to qualify so much? He's the only player in the top 16 that hasn't placed top 4 in either a WCS season or a season finals. I mean I like Naniwa too but It's not like his performance absolutely deserved qualification. | ||
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