EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 47
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Drew34000
United States7 Posts
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youngkrazz
United States14 Posts
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ffadicted
United States3545 Posts
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Marcinko
South Africa1014 Posts
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Sandermatt
Switzerland1365 Posts
On October 20 2013 02:00 asongdotnet wrote: it's looking pretty good that the current top 16 will hold. soo, dear and vortix are next in line but they'd have to place top 4 to displace naniwa/revival. of course there's still WCS AM to finish up but half the ro8 have started off with such low point totals that they'd pretty much qualify and then win it all at the season 3 finals Still, the chances add up. For the foreign hope it would be best if Jaedong, MacSed, Polt and Hero win. This could help Naniwa and Vortix (and MacSEd's little chance stays). | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Oz starts in the round of 8 in America Premier facing Hack Oz loses this match 57.844% of the time, which decreases Oz's chances to 2.997%. Oz wins this match 42.156% of the time, which increases Oz's chances to 21.286%. Instead of playing Hack, he faces HerO. This should reduce interdependence, Hack and Oz could meet up in the finals, both bringing in more points. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 03:12 Ghanburighan wrote: There seems to be a mistake with the WCS Ro8 Instead of playing Hack, he faces HerO. This should reduce interdependence, Hack and Oz could meet up in the finals, both bringing in more points. The WCS AM ro8 has not been put in yet since they were released late and I didn't get a chance to do it. I just woke up(GSL finals lol) so I'll do it before they start. The OP right now is actually with random ro8 and Oz vs Hack is from just 1 of the brackets that it used. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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Dalnore
Russian Federation66 Posts
On October 20 2013 04:17 Die4Ever wrote: Update posted with GSL completed and WCS AM ro8 brackets set. I think you have the incorrect GSL finals results where soO is assumed to be the winner. For example, you have the following statement: -------------------------------------------soO gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 25.310% of the time. When it does, it increases soO's chances to 96.157%. Actually, if soO gets 8th place his chances are zero as he'll be on just 2800 points. Also, soO chances can't be several times higher than Dear's as they have pretty much the same amount of points (2250 and 2300). | ||
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VyingsP
France174 Posts
edit : so ninja'd | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 20 2013 04:23 Dalnore wrote: I think you have the incorrect GSL finals results where soO is assumed to be the winner. For example, you have the following statement: Actually, if soO gets 8th place his chances are zero as he'll be on just 2800 points. Also, soO chances can't be several times higher than Dear's as they have pretty much the same amount of points (2250 and 2300). arg, haha running again. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
 Jaedong vs Hack MacSed vs ByuL Polt vs Heart Oz vs HerO Gonna be fun! | ||
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Iceman331
United States1306 Posts
On October 19 2013 23:13 Sobienski wrote: I made a maybe easier to read post for people that want to know how is NaNiwa's situation right now. + Show Spoiler + ByuL has 600 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3600 points) Hackhas 700 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if:
2nd place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points) 6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3700 points) Heart has 750 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
2nd place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3250 points) 6th place in WCS NA and 1st place in Season 3 Finals (3750 points) MacSed has 1200 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if:
2nd place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points) 6th place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3200 points) Genius has 1300 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
Trap has 1450 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
Oz has 1600 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
4th place in WCS NA and 4th place in Season 3 Finals (3350 points) 6th place in WCS NA and 2nd place in Season 3 Finals (3600 points) Vortix has 2150 points, he can pass NaNiwa if:
Dear has 2250 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if:
soO has 2300 points, he can pass/tie NaNiwa if:
Revival has 3175 points, he can tie NaNiwa if:
For today's Ro8 in WCS NA, the best would be for Jaedong > Hack, ByuL > MacSed, Polt > Heart, HerO > Oz, and then Hack and Heart to grab the 5th and 6th place. Also, a lot of ties are possible, I wonder what Blizzard will do if that happens... Thank you sir. Very helpful. On October 19 2013 23:48 Drew34000 wrote: Aligulac fixed that recently by giving Koreans a starting rating of "1200" and foreigners a "1000". Vortix is playing the best starcraft of his life, I think a 1/8 chance is accurate. ...... Vortix doesn't have a chance. Have you looked at the players that are going to be there? | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Zheryn
Sweden3653 Posts
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
On October 20 2013 07:05 Zheryn wrote: So Hack just lost to JD in WCS AM ro8. He now needs to win season finals to go past Naniwa. This is good He needs to get there in the first place ... | ||
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Killmouse
Austria5700 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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