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On July 09 2013 02:34 Batiste wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 02:31 MrTortoise wrote:
12% rake?
Rofl thats criminal
So i have a 50% win loss play 8 matches and you have raked a whole match worth of winnings?
you would need about 70% win rate to be a winner which would automatically move you out of the skill bracket you claim to be in.
Broken system is broken. I'll repeat what I said shall I? That's only if you play for the same amount of money in every game... you can still be on profit even if you have a 50% win rate, just depends on how much you play for in each game
So all I need to do is play 5 games at $5 (or whatever the lowest possible bet is) and throw those games. Then every 6th game I play seriously at as high an amount possible? ... sounds good.
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Holy defensive pyramid scheming OP batman!
but really, you're so defensive about this its like you wanted everyone to jump in here and shout "what a wonderful idea OP! Take our monies with your clearly rigged scheme!"
Proven by the bolded "If you have nothing positive to say dont say it" in the OP and many passive-aggressive or downright aggressive posts afterwards.
Dont make a drawn out post about your suggestions unless your willing to discuss them.
Telling people to shut the fuck up because you made $800 on a gambling website playing games (which yeah, no.) and they dont know shit defeats the object of posting in the first place. Want to do it? Go the fuck ahead. Good luck if nobody else agree's and you dont even bother to convince them because at present you're just telling them to stfu.
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This is dumb and you can already do it without official support, it's just it's so laughably exploitable that nobody wants to.
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only adds to the ladder-anxiety situation.
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Old Idea.
Boils down to proper infrastructure to counters hacks, money policies/gambling laws and identifications system for smurfs and such.
It could work but will never be legal thus won't go "mainstream". I could see someone programming an escrow bitcoin system that would make the rake near 0% but even then you need an anonymous part to deal with the $ and a public part to deal with the identifications/cheating problems.
It's an interesting system to think about but I don't see it going nowhere for now, a white paper would be interesting though.
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Wouldn't work online. Too many scumbags and hackers. However, when I lan with friends, and other people who want to come, we have money matches all the time, and its super fun. So for anyone who hasn't tried that, you should. Makes you actually care about the result!
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if blizzard implements this people nobody will play.
people already use sites like d2jsp to bet fg in 1v1s, where the currency is a virtual dollar with indirect real value
also, 12% rake? jesus christ if pokerstars made this kind of money the ceos would have bought hawaii or something already
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If you where just doing this for fun as a player, then I dont see why they would need an organization to do it...
If you where doing it for money, I think you would be better served in buying Somalian government bonds; that would at least give you a small chance at a return on investment...
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On July 09 2013 04:00 DusTerr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 02:34 Batiste wrote:On July 09 2013 02:31 MrTortoise wrote:
12% rake?
Rofl thats criminal
So i have a 50% win loss play 8 matches and you have raked a whole match worth of winnings?
you would need about 70% win rate to be a winner which would automatically move you out of the skill bracket you claim to be in.
Broken system is broken. I'll repeat what I said shall I? That's only if you play for the same amount of money in every game... you can still be on profit even if you have a 50% win rate, just depends on how much you play for in each game So all I need to do is play 5 games at $5 (or whatever the lowest possible bet is) and throw those games. Then every 6th game I play seriously at as high an amount possible? ... sounds good.
This type of bet spreading is a key part of beating casino blackjack (no experience, personal study). I don't think it would work here without a very large bet spread, as in 100:1 or so, at least:
This is what happens if you tank 5 games at $5 and then play a serious one for $500 if you win the serious one %75 of the time:
.75(380) = +$285* reflecting 12% rake on the total pool
.25(-500) = -$125
________________
$160 in expected value,from which you must subtract the fees associated with the games you tank. You have to win 75% of these big games and risk $525+ to make $150 dollars. And some of those big games are going to be against people doing the same thing you are. (Probably most of them) Who do you think is realistically going to play you in SC for $500 a game? Some idiot? Maybe. Probably not though... and just think of the cash you would need to be able to play through the inevitable losses. Even a 75% win rate can have some rough patches, and you realistically need to be putting up that $525 per game because playing any smaller just means those games you tank cost an even bigger percent of your winnings. Once you start dipping below 75% win rate, you have to start dramatically increasing the size of your big bets to make any decent money. Its not a great proposition.
On July 09 2013 03:36 Batiste wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 03:24 rikter wrote:
OP: a 12% rake is MASSIVE, there are no ifs ands or buts about that. Its true, you could make money by doubling down to cover your losses (this is a classic martingale progression, and a recipe for disaster btw) but more likely you will just lose money. If you cant win the 62% of your games to break even on a flat bet, upping it wont help you do anything but lose more and faster.
The other issue is that in order to win at 62% you need to be playing against people much worse. In a scenario of evenly matched competitors, only the website wins, since neither player has a big edge and the rake eats up a small edge and then some.
At this point, why would you play a losing game like that instead of just playing FREE on bnet? To make money, just the same reason why people go Casinos, and at Casinos the odds are much worse and this requires skill so odds are better, and you may say to make money you need to play people worse then you but don't the game also has the element of luck and cheese into it, and at low level anyone could beat anyone and just like top level GM... Anyone can take atleast one game off anyone else even if they're an avreagely not as good, but gambling is about taking chances, if people want to be, lets say pussy, then they'll find it harder to find a a game and it will take twice as long for them to make money then others at the same level that take the risk... Just don't forgot I have experience in this so trying to say no that's ins't true... just shh and keep it to yourself
I explain in my response above a bit about making money in the scenario you describe. FYI: the odds at the casino are much better than the odds on this site. In casino blackjack you grind to overcome a 2% disadvantage. In this website you talk about, you are trying to overcome six times that, and against an active opponent instead of a house dealer playing on a fixed set of rules!
Gambling is one of those things were experience doesn't necessarily mean much if it isnt correctly informed.
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I'm sorry but this sounds like a terrible idea.
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12% rake tells me you didn't really think this through at all, and are only in it for the profits.
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On July 09 2013 04:57 peidongyang wrote:
if blizzard implements this people nobody will play.
They could not because it would be illegal but If they would it sure would be popular. Don't underestimate gambling and the power of money
On July 09 2013 04:57 peidongyang wrote:
people already use sites like d2jsp to bet fg in 1v1s, where the currency is a virtual dollar with indirect real value
It's basically already happening on a smaller scale for 0% rake. I could see ppl betting d3 gold also because they are easier to cash out. The problem is that no one can verify who is playing and who is hacking.
Also please stop talking about the 12% rake, who the hell cares if it's 0.1 or 12% if the basis aren't there.
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On July 09 2013 05:15 scDeluX wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 04:57 peidongyang wrote:
if blizzard implements this people nobody will play. They could not because it would be illegal but If they would it sure would be popular. Don't underestimate gambling and the power of money Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 04:57 peidongyang wrote:
people already use sites like d2jsp to bet fg in 1v1s, where the currency is a virtual dollar with indirect real value It's basically already happening on a smaller scale for 0% rake. I could see ppl betting d3 gold also because they are easier to cash out. The problem is that no one can verify who is playing and who is hacking.
Its not the gambling I take issue with, its doing it with a 12% rake that really grinds my gears.
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It could be an option if blizzard had a way to eliminate all sorts of cheating.
With the huge amount of cheats in this game,i dont think annyone would dare waging monney on a game.
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I tried this once, it doesn't work.
Biggest Reasons:
It is hard to prevent people from smurfing.
There is generally a lack of interest.
It's hard to stop hackers.
People WILL abuse the customer support system
More specific Reasons why it is hard for a third party:
Money Handling is hard and so is getting people to trust you with it.
PM me for more details.
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We know 12% is stupid but that's not the problem.
I'm only trying to think how could this work even with 0% just for the fun of it. It's a great problem and it's not the first time this thread has poped. I've seen it 3 times at least on TL already.
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On July 09 2013 05:28 red_hq wrote:
I tried this once, it doesn't work.
Biggest Reasons:
It is hard to prevent people from smurfing.
Impossible without having webcam live feed? Only other option I can think of is hotkey analysis
There is generally a lack of interest.
As previously stated, I think it would never be popular if not open-source because it would be illegal
It's hard to stop hackers.
Only solution is live-stream?
People WILL abuse the customer support system
I don't see this as a problem. Human interraction to a minimum everything would need to be clearly define before the playing, open-source software needed.
More specific Reasons why it is hard for a third party:
Money Handling is hard and so is getting people to trust you with it.
Third party would act as an escrow (referee type) and would not handle money directly, I can see something being worked out with bitcoin (or other online currency) which would not be that hard
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If someone came to TL forums and proposed a business plan for the first ever casino in the world what do you think would have happened? He would get flamed and told this would never work. This idea is similar. It is supposed to take advantege of people and, if you ask me, there are lots of people to be taken advantage of, sc2 community included. TL is just not the right place to ask for support or feedback for such an idea. On the other hand how many times have you seen people trash talking and saying they would own you any other game, just not the previous one. Inviting someone to such an arena is a solution. And there are other examples when such a thing could be of use. Smart people will stay away from it because there are too many people who would go at great lengths to scum you for money, but not everyone is smart. Overall the abuse potential is just huge so this would never be fair. One interesting way of developing this idea is to accept that people would try to scum others and you can't stop it. The ammount of people who think they are smarter than others is huge. Lots of them will be attracted by easy money gained from underperforming and devaluating their skill and score (by losing low-bet games if needed). But in the end it will end up with scammers against scammers under bronze league accounts or something. So theoretically this could work, but Blizzard will never allow it.
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On July 09 2013 05:45 Cheerio wrote:
If someone came to TL forums and proposed a business plan for the first ever casino in the world what do you think would have happened? He would get flamed and told this would never work.
Is that a bad thing?
+ Show Spoiler +(I certainly feel this whole thread idea is)
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On July 09 2013 05:45 Cheerio wrote:
If someone came to TL forums and proposed a business plan for the first ever casino in the world what do you think would have happened? He would get flamed and told this would never work. This idea is similar. It is supposed to take advantege of people and, if you ask me, there are lots of people to be taken advantage of, sc2 community included. TL is just not the right place to ask for support or feedback for such an idea. On the other hand how many times have you seen people trash talking and saying they would own you any other game, just not the previous one. Inviting someone to such an arena is a solution. And there are other examples when such a thing could be of use. Smart people will stay away from it because there are too many people who would go at great lengths to scum you for money, but not everyone is smart. Overall the abuse potential is just huge so this would never be fair. One interesting way of developing this idea is to accept that people would try to scum others and you can't stop it. The ammount of people who think they are smarter than others is huge. Lots of them will be attracted by easy money gained from underperforming and devaluating their skill and score (by losing low-bet games if needed). But in the end it will end up with scammers against scammers under bronze league accounts or something. So theoretically this could work, but Blizzard will never allow it.
Point of casinos isn't for people to win, the casinos need to make a profit, that's why there is so much legislation to make sure they don't straight up rip people off. This idea on the other hand is presented as "fun way to play against other people". Yeah, right. Solid business shouldn't be built on screwing over people who can't make the necessary math and definitely should be shunned by TL community if that is the case - see every shitty tournament organizer who doesn't pay out the prize money.
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EPT
