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On April 05 2011 08:12 VGhost wrote: Flash: 34-10 (77..27%). Losses to BaBy,  Tyson,  Calm, Stork, ZerO, Hyuk, Classic, Ssak, Kal, Light. Six of those - BaBy, Calm, Stork, ZerO, Kal, and Light - are A or better. Of the other four he shouldn't have lost to, Tyson's got a mean PvT, Classic has proved he's got good TvT (especially vs Flash for whatever reason), and Hyuk is Hyuk, leaving Ssak as the sole "???" result - and judging by WL playoffs maybe it's not that weird. Anyway, call it 3 bad losses - Tyson, Hyuk, and Ssak - for 7% "bad losses".
Stork cheesed Flash, BaBy cheesed Flash. Kal won with carriers on Aztec, Tyson won with Carriers on BR.
Losses to Calm, Zero, Hyuk, Classic, Ssak and Light were legit games where Flash was outplayed. I wouldn't call a loss like Tyson a "bad loss". I would call it Carrier PvT on BR.
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Very nice post VGhost!
Personally I see Fantasy as S-Class. TBLS is simply an elite clan within the S-Class designation. Fantasy is my favourite Terran because of his funky builds, so I don't mind if he loses more to worse players.
Kal should be S-Class if he weren't so terrible at times. I await the day that he finally delivers. And of course Effort will return in less than 5 months and could join the ranks. Ideally we will have TBLS + Fantasy + Kal + Effort as S Class this fall. I can hope.
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Fantasy had a rough spot briefly in December. On the whole, otherwise speaking, he's been incredibly consistent since May of last year (without using TLPD... 66% since May 1, I believe?).
In December, for a brief while, for reasons I cannot make sense of, Fantasy looked shaken and I've never really understood why since he was coming off the hottest win streak in his career when that happened.
Edit: Okay, verified, 66% since May 1, 2010, rounded to the nearest integer of course.
21-14 (60%) TvT. 7 of those losses were to Flash (3-7 since May 1). When you win 60% and a third of your games are against the world's best player I think that says something. Two of his four losses against "weak" opponents were picked up in his December slump.
36-16 (69%) TvZ. 0-3 vs JD and 1-4 vs Soulkey are the only bothersome things here. Soulkey's ZvT for a while had been considered really good (mid 2010) and beat Fantasy twice then, although right now it sucks. Fantasy lost to it twice in December but beat it more recently. All other players who have beaten him that have played more than 1 game against Fantasy during this time are at best 50% against him including Calm, Zero and Effort.
28-14 (67%) TvP. The only player to have faced him more than once and still hold a winning record over him is Snow (2-1).
And this is just looking at raw stats, not taking into account caliber of game play. I think he's very consistent and while yes, he's less consistent than Flash (who isn't?), and yes he sometimes loses games in absurdly retarded ways that make us slap are heads, these incidents tend to get hyped up tremendously. I also think that many people look too much at Flash when they make comparisons. Don't forget that Flash stands out next to anyone right now. If you look at other players... okay, Bisu might have a nice win record recently, but when was the last time he made it past Ro8 in SL? What about mid last year where he went on what, a 6 game loss streak? Then floundered up until the current season? What about Stork, whose record is similar? Even Jaedong, whose consistent dominance is only surpassed by Flash's, spent an entire season unable to win over his most difficult opponents.
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If Hiya can beat Carriers on BR so can Flash i'm sure. He was legitimately outplayed even with Tyson suiciding like 20 HTs.
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On April 05 2011 09:14 Mortality wrote:
Fantasy had a rough spot briefly in December. On the whole, otherwise speaking, he's been incredibly consistent since May of last year (without using TLPD... 66% since May 1, I believe?).
In December, for a brief while, for reasons I cannot make sense of, Fantasy looked shaken and I've never really understood why since he was coming off the hottest win streak in his career when that happened.
Honestly I don't really follow fantasy's play beyond making sure to watch any recommended TvZs, because those tend to be his best moments - so I'm not as familiar with specific games etc. and I'm going off stats. Also while I've followed PL etc. more or less for a while it's only in the last few weeks that I've (re)started watching a significant number of games (and registered, incidentally).
Disclaimers aside, I'd make two caveats to your post. First, going by the results list, the losses to Jaehoon and ggaemo were both in January, as were a number of others - his "mini slump" did extend that far. Second, while indeed you're right about his May-now run, if you go back to April (because why not, get the whole year) you have to add in losses to Kwanro, Pure, and HyuN as "bad". Pure was on his run, and HyuN's sporadically good (as attested by ELO). And yes, fantasy's May-November streak with literally no bad losses (judging by player rep, at least) is truly remarkable, I have to admit - but I think you might find streaks like that for TBLS without the random months where they lose bunches of games to 2nd string players. I could be wrong.
All that said, fantasy is, if not S-class, the closest thing to it of anyone not in TBLS. 65% winrate doesn't just happen over a full year to random decent players. At the same time, if he's S class, he's the "worst" of them (OSL notwithstanding) at the moment, in part because of the random losses to B players - and thus the debate exists.
(For fun and giggles: Hydra's at 61% for the last year; Stats is at 61%; RorO is at 60%; Snow is at 61%. Are these your "S Class threats"? RorO is clearly nobody's idea of S-class, Stats inspires significant doubt. Hydra and Snow have both been near acknowledgement though. The other interesting thing is that there seems to be a clear cutoff between the 60%+ and the 55%-ish players (everybody good who's not TBLS, fantasy, or these 4), which I find interesting. Why do we not have players in the 56%-59% range? Statistical fluke?)
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On April 05 2011 10:07 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2011 09:14 Mortality wrote:
Fantasy had a rough spot briefly in December. On the whole, otherwise speaking, he's been incredibly consistent since May of last year (without using TLPD... 66% since May 1, I believe?).
In December, for a brief while, for reasons I cannot make sense of, Fantasy looked shaken and I've never really understood why since he was coming off the hottest win streak in his career when that happened. Honestly I don't really follow fantasy's play beyond making sure to watch any recommended TvZs, because those tend to be his best moments - so I'm not as familiar with specific games etc. and I'm going off stats. Also while I've followed PL etc. more or less for a while it's only in the last few weeks that I've (re)started watching a significant number of games (and registered, incidentally). Disclaimers aside, I'd make two caveats to your post. First, going by the results list, the losses to Jaehoon and ggaemo were both in January, as were a number of others - his "mini slump" did extend that far. Second, while indeed you're right about his May-now run, if you go back to April (because why not, get the whole year) you have to add in losses to Kwanro, Pure, and HyuN as "bad". Pure was on his run, and HyuN's sporadically good (as attested by ELO). And yes, fantasy's May-November streak with literally no bad losses (judging by player rep, at least) is truly remarkable, I have to admit - but I think you might find streaks like that for TBLS without the random months where they lose bunches of games to 2nd string players. I could be wrong. All that said, fantasy is, if not S-class, the closest thing to it of anyone not in TBLS. 65% winrate doesn't just happen over a full year to random decent players. At the same time, if he's S class, he's the "worst" of them (OSL notwithstanding) at the moment, in part because of the random losses to B players - and thus the debate exists. (For fun and giggles: Hydra's at 61% for the last year; Stats is at 61%; RorO is at 60%; Snow is at 61%. Are these your "S Class threats"? RorO is clearly nobody's idea of S-class, Stats inspires significant doubt. Hydra and Snow have both been near acknowledgement though. The other interesting thing is that there seems to be a clear cutoff between the 60%+ and the 55%-ish players (everybody good who's not TBLS, fantasy, or these 4), which I find interesting. Why do we not have players in the 56%-59% range? Statistical fluke?)
I edited my above post. And for the record, I think you will find minislumps in TBLS, especially in Bisu and Stork, that match Fantasy's little slump in December/early January.
Edit: also I rate Fantasy as #3 over the past year. He's attained results. Stork and Bisu haven't. At the end of the day, win percentage is nice, but if you lose the maximum number of games and win SL that's still better than losing the minimum number of games and going home a loser. I guess I should revise that Stork's results are actually not too far behind Fantasy's. But Bisu... he needs to break deep into SL.
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The whole TBLS thing doesn't even really make sense. Fantasy is just better than Stork now. His stats are better than Stork's and he's accomplished more than him over the past couple of years. Stork's been solid for decades, but when was the last time he actually did something, other than make it the OSL finals and lose to Fantasy?
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United States10328 Posts
On April 05 2011 08:12 VGhost wrote:Flash: 34-10 (77..27%). Losses to BaBy, Tyson, Calm, Stork, ZerO, Hyuk, Classic, Ssak, Kal, Light. Six of those - BaBy, Calm, Stork, ZerO, Kal, and Light - are A or better. Of the other four he shouldn't have lost to, Tyson's got a mean PvT, Classic has proved he's got good TvT (especially vs Flash for whatever reason), and Hyuk is Hyuk, leaving Ssak as the sole "???" result - and judging by WL playoffs maybe it's not that weird. Anyway, call it 3 bad losses - Tyson, Hyuk, and Ssak - for 7% "bad losses".
I'm not sure it's fair to say "Flash had a higher percentage of bad losses"--the actual number of bad losses by Flash wasn't much more than the rest of the "S-class." But Flash has fewer losses overall, so the percentage of "bad losses" just looks bigger.
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On April 05 2011 10:47 GolemMadness wrote:
The whole TBLS thing doesn't even really make sense. Fantasy is just better than Stork now. His stats are better than Stork's and he's accomplished more than him over the past couple of years. Stork's been solid for decades, but when was the last time he actually did something, other than make it the OSL finals and lose to Fantasy?
He also made it into the MSL semis (and yes, lost to ZerO, badly). I think the upcoming Starleague season will say a lot about where the two of them are compared to each other.
@Mortality: I could accept fantasy as #3 (I was in fact arguing for him #1 in PR earlier in the thread) but imo he's not higher than #4 overall as I'd put Stork ahead. (And Bisu maybe - he's been a Proleague machine.) The OSL win was fantasy's first deep starleague run since his losses to Jaedong, I think, while Stork's been hanging around consistently even if not advancing really far, and made deep runs in both leagues, even if he didn't win anything.
I'm also not convinced we really disagree about anything factual here so much as interpreting it differently. 4th (even 5th) or 3rd isn't a significant difference, we clearly both think he belongs in the S-class discussion at least, and so forth. The one other thing I'd mention is that Stork has a worse environment, being the only really good player on his team atm while fantasy splits ace duties with Bisu and sometimes whichever of s2/Hyuk/BeSt etc. is streaky-good at the time. With nearly identical results, I think that tips the balance in Stork's favor.
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United States10328 Posts
On April 05 2011 11:03 VGhost wrote:
I'm also not convinced we really disagree about anything factual here so much as interpreting it differently. 4th (even 5th) or 3rd isn't a significant difference, we clearly both think he belongs in the S-class discussion at least, and so forth. The one other thing I'd mention is that Stork has a worse environment, being the only really good player on his team atm while fantasy splits ace duties with Bisu and sometimes whichever of s2/Hyuk/BeSt etc. is streaky-good at the time. With nearly identical results, I think that tips the balance in Stork's favor.
Though Stork doesn't necessarily have another S-class player on his team, I think (despite their slumping) his supporting cast is comparable to SKT-sans-Bisu. Jangbi was good at some point; Great did make an individual league final; Turn, Brave and Grape are up-and-coming (and arguably? better than Ssak, Sun, Paralyze, but this is debatable). Best, s2, Hyuk vs Jangbi/Great seems pretty even to me.
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On April 05 2011 11:21 ]343[ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2011 11:03 VGhost wrote:
I'm also not convinced we really disagree about anything factual here so much as interpreting it differently. 4th (even 5th) or 3rd isn't a significant difference, we clearly both think he belongs in the S-class discussion at least, and so forth. The one other thing I'd mention is that Stork has a worse environment, being the only really good player on his team atm while fantasy splits ace duties with Bisu and sometimes whichever of s2/Hyuk/BeSt etc. is streaky-good at the time. With nearly identical results, I think that tips the balance in Stork's favor. Though Stork doesn't necessarily have another S-class player on his team, I think (despite their slumping) his supporting cast is comparable to SKT-sans-Bisu. Jangbi was good at some point; Great did make an individual league final; Turn, Brave and Grape are up-and-coming (and arguably? better than Ssak, Sun, Paralyze, but this is debatable). Best, s2, Hyuk vs Jangbi/Great seems pretty even to me.
Yah, but "sans Bisu" is a pretty big qualification. I don't mean to post one-liners... but there's not that much else to say about it.
Okay, I'll grant that *after* Bisu KHAN may be better, but they still lack the "second ace" option that SKT has - and KT (Stats), Stars (free/ZerO/Light), Entus (Hydra/Leta?/Snow?), or MBC (before the Light transfer) have, which imo has to be huge in terms of stress level even if it isn't actually reflected in results.
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it's so funny to look back on all the FBH hate in the GOMTV MSL LR threads
"OMGGG FUCK YOU FIREBATHERO I HOPE YOU BURN IN HELL DISRESPECTFUL FAGGOT"
"NOOOO FUCK THIS CHEESY TERRAN FHAGJHGKJAGLKA"
and now he's one of the most liked progamers lol.
fantasy is ranked too high imo. the fact that he keeps getting destroyed by jaedong speaks for itself, but that might be because he's pretty bad at tvz. other than that, really good ranking. glad to see stats on there.
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On April 05 2011 11:03 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2011 10:47 GolemMadness wrote:
The whole TBLS thing doesn't even really make sense. Fantasy is just better than Stork now. His stats are better than Stork's and he's accomplished more than him over the past couple of years. Stork's been solid for decades, but when was the last time he actually did something, other than make it the OSL finals and lose to Fantasy? He also made it into the MSL semis (and yes, lost to ZerO, badly). I think the upcoming Starleague season will say a lot about where the two of them are compared to each other. @Mortality: I could accept fantasy as #3 (I was in fact arguing for him #1 in PR earlier in the thread) but imo he's not higher than #4 overall as I'd put Stork ahead. (And Bisu maybe - he's been a Proleague machine.) The OSL win was fantasy's first deep starleague run since his losses to Jaedong, I think, while Stork's been hanging around consistently even if not advancing really far, and made deep runs in both leagues, even if he didn't win anything. I'm also not convinced we really disagree about anything factual here so much as interpreting it differently. 4th (even 5th) or 3rd isn't a significant difference, we clearly both think he belongs in the S-class discussion at least, and so forth. The one other thing I'd mention is that Stork has a worse environment, being the only really good player on his team atm while fantasy splits ace duties with Bisu and sometimes whichever of s2/Hyuk/BeSt etc. is streaky-good at the time. With nearly identical results, I think that tips the balance in Stork's favor.
You're right that this argument isn't terribly important since we both seem to think Fantasy is S-class and deserves to be listed next to TBLS. However, a couple mistaken points made me want to address this anyway...
How exactly do you consider this season to be Fanta's first deep SL run when we had Flash vs Fantasy in Bigfile semifinals pushing a BONJWA into a tense 3-2 series that started out with arguably the greatest TvT game ever played?
And Stork dropped to Zero in the Ro8 of MSL, not the semis. Semis were Hydra-Jaedong and Zero-Great. MSL starts bo5 at Ro8... Stork's appearance in semis was at KA2 OSL. Interestingly, he managed to push JD to a 3-2 series, although the games were ridiculously scrappy considering who was playing.
However, other than these results, Stork's best result was just making it to Ro16 in KA1. In Hana Daetoo he was 2-0'd in Ro32 and in MST during Bigfile season he was dropped to offline prelims. Ouch?
Compare WCG 2010: Stork got eliminated in his first round while Fantasy made it 3 rounds (note: Stork was seeded higher but that's not an excuse because Fantasy beat Zero and then faced Flash). Granted Fanta faced a scrub in first round, but still. I wouldn't give him credit if that was all he had done. Fantasy also made Ro16 in Hana Daetoo MSL and passed Ro36 in both KA1 and KA2 OSL, losing a tie-breaker in KA1.
Basically, for the past 3 seasons, this was the first that Fantasy didn't make it to at least Ro16 in both leagues simultaneously and he made up for it with a 3-0 roflstomp of Stork in OSL finals. Meanwhile, Stork wasn't doing anything in OSL that Fantasy wasn't doing elsewhere and Stork was completely unable to achieve results in MSL.
Hence why it was Fantasy, not Stork, who was breathing down the necks of Flash and Jaedong in KeSPA ranking, which has a strong emphasis on individual league performance.
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nice read, glad to see fbh back for a change
on other hand, lightwhip still crying for bisu, even in PR's rofl...
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...okay I guess I'll shut up about fantasy vs Stork now, thanks for the corrections. Although I seriously didn't remember fantasy really being in a league like at all lately before this last OSL, gotta go upgrade my memory I guess.
+ Show Spoiler +I still think Stork's better! /fanboy
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While talking about Fantasy's OSL run... those games against calm will forever burn in my memory as some of the crappiest Semi-final games ever. T_T
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On April 05 2011 16:38 ghrur wrote:
While talking about Fantasy's OSL run... those games against calm will forever burn in my memory as some of the crappiest Semi-final games ever. T_T
Probably because you didn't watch Nukethestar's commentary. I certainly found them intertaining. I mean, one base into a single BC? wut? And it worked? I was ROFL so hard. Fantasy isn't known for his BM but that was just brutal.
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On April 05 2011 23:32 kamizushi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2011 16:38 ghrur wrote:
While talking about Fantasy's OSL run... those games against calm will forever burn in my memory as some of the crappiest Semi-final games ever. T_T Probably because you didn't watch Nukethestar's commentary. I certainly found them intertaining. I mean, one base into a single BC? wut? And it worked? I was ROFL so hard. Fantasy isn't known for his BM but that was just brutal.
Sure, because the follow-up to a blocjed 4-pool is a testament of skill... I mean, yeah, that was entertaining, but what did it show ?
Fanta's play might not have been that bad in the serie (I thinkhe even played pretty well in set 5, and ok in set 2 even though Calm lost that game absolutely on his own), but please, game 1 contained maybe the worst decision making I have ever seen in a pro sc game. It was so retarded... It has its place among the worst Jaehoon/Canata failure 
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Last OSL was very weird and filled with absurdities. Modesty in a semi-final anyone? Hyuk 3-0ing a group with Kal and Flash? Jaedong?
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On April 06 2011 00:37 corumjhaelen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2011 23:32 kamizushi wrote:On April 05 2011 16:38 ghrur wrote:
While talking about Fantasy's OSL run... those games against calm will forever burn in my memory as some of the crappiest Semi-final games ever. T_T Probably because you didn't watch Nukethestar's commentary. I certainly found them intertaining. I mean, one base into a single BC? wut? And it worked? I was ROFL so hard. Fantasy isn't known for his BM but that was just brutal. Sure, because the follow-up to a blocjed 4-pool is a testament of skill... I mean, yeah, that was entertaining, but what did it show ? Fanta's play might not have been that bad in the serie (I thinkhe even played pretty well in set 5, and ok in set 2 even though Calm lost that game absolutely on his own), but please, game 1 contained maybe the worst decision making I have ever seen in a pro sc game. It was so retarded... It has its place among the worst Jaehoon/Canata failure
I'm not saying it's a testament of skill. Calm had already lost. It was 100% BM I say. Calm should have GGed, Fantasy humiliated him and he had nobody to blame but himself. Doing a 4 pool is a bit like rolling dices. It's still legitimate since no player can afford to become too predictable, but I agree that it doesn't require the best mechanics to execute or to counter. Any B- zerg players could easily beat Flash with it if he doesn't see it coming.
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EPT
