EPT[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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Totally. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Personally, I play mafia to be yelled at by Rayn... and he should be coming any... minute... now... | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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On November 24 2020 05:55 Alakaslam wrote: I will. I think I’m pliable enough to listen to the town and not hijack the lynch with massive 460 mm japanese cannons (lookin’ at you, Yamato) and lynch who we agree upon. I’m open to suggestions and I’m town, I promise! That being said, I fully intend to add my own opinion and put it out for review. ##Vote: Alakaslam FF read the day post sir  Is your platform effectively that you will vote for whom the town desires (i.e. who the town "votes for" to be mafia)? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 24 2020 06:18 Alakaslam wrote: Oh pardoner. Yeah I don’t want that role but if anyone should have that, it’s still me. So many times I have known someone was town but nooo people had to lynch them. But I won’t get that way as mayor! I’m too pliable! Why is pliability a positive trait as a Mayor? On November 24 2020 06:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Can you open this up a little bit? What's the agenda behind this? I mean it is quite clear that for any reason TT didn't really care about answering you and you have also posted since so... Just a conversation starter. I figure that people posting about the mayoral election is ever-so-slightly more productive of a topic than other early game "joke-posting". Whether TT responds or not is immaterial. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 24 2020 06:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay does his non-answer mean anything to you then? His non-answer is a small fact that may fit into the larger "puzzle" of his filter and play later on. It does not mean anything to me without additional context. Is there any reason that you are "boldly" reading TT as town early on? I kinda get that his game "contrasts" from the last one in that he is early/active/loosely-posting, but that's a pretty small sample size to be making any strong reads. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 24 2020 06:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay, we'll see about that later on then. Then i am also not gonna post the follow up i was going to yet.  Yes that's the reason i am reading him town so far. The read is as strong as any half-an-hour-to-the-game-read can be. So yeah, not strong but the strongest i have so far. Aren't you aware that TT has a documented history of making his first few posts w/out reading his Role PM (i.e. last game, he posted his Acro case without really knowing that Acro was his scumbuddy)? Not to say that is an excuse for dismissing reading his early filter entirely, but it does make me a bit loathe to put anything out there read-wise early on. On November 24 2020 06:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: ... You are right i am. Because honestly i want either him or me to be the mayor. I dont really care which one in case he is town. Because of two things i think that; One, the mayor has a bodyguard. In case hapa is town and mayor he becomes even "more very very valuable" asset to the town as it will take at least two night for mafia to get rid of him. I obviously also think i am better than anyone else (or at least on par) so the same goes for me.  Two, you have a tendency to "drop out" at times and/or forget/fail to send in actions/properly read the game, and therefore i can name other people too that would in my opinion be more valuable as mayor in case they are town. I also dont like you take on the pardoner, but i dont think that means anything towards your alignment. Pardoner should pretty much never use the power. Period.Why are town-Trfel or town-Vivax not qualified to be mayor? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 24 2020 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am mainly referring to him forgetting about the game. Did he say he didnt read his role PM at all or only his scumbuddies? You posted in the wrong thread, but you are correct ... I didn't exactly say that did i? But i still think i am anyways so i might have said it aswell, regardless of your affiliation. Isn't that the implication of what you said? You want to be mayor, but it is OK if town-Hapa is mayor also. That implies that you do not want other players, even if "town" to be mayor. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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It is a bit of a self-meta thing, but I tend to dislike making any sort of concrete reads in the early game unless I am very confident in the read. Once I articulate a read, I find it very mentally difficult to go back and re-evaluate it seriously. Hence, I keep my reads "notepad", but I do avoid posting every little one in thread, lest I inadvertently commit myself to a town read for bad reasons. Regarding Mayor... I kinda don't want to run? It's a lot of responsibility, and I tend to enjoy games more where I am not forced to take a leadership role. If it becomes apparent that there is no good choice for mayor, I will likely campaign for myself. But I'd like to avoid that if possible. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Slam is noticeably posting "lighter" and "happier". I wasn't really convinced with the read, but having looked through some previous scumgames of his this morning, my confidence interval is pretty high on his alignment. Trfel's posting is also dead-on with his previous town games. His entrance shows he is reading the thread. He also has this "peculiar" way of making his reads as town, which I will elaborate on if I feel he is in danger of getting lynched. I think he has also appropriately pinged Grack's posts, as well as Rayn's relative passivity, which shows a degree of careful reading in the early game Grack's entrance to the game is a lot of bravado and not a lot of substance. The mayoral "campaign" can be interpreted as anything. His interaction with Trfel strikes me as scummy, because he spends time implying that Trfel is mafia without actually concretely saying anything. On November 24 2020 14:11 Grackaroni wrote: Hapa's statement is fine with me. I understand not being a player who jumps the gun with early conclusions. I'm not sure what you're on about with your backsies clause I was just relating my own experience lol. To be honest I think you're trying to dig yourself out of a hole from how you were percieved earlier. On November 24 2020 14:30 Grackaroni wrote: Rayn called out one of your posts and Slam says you shat on the carpet and all of a sudden you're yelling about my backsies and acting tough. I don't really care about Hapa's post one way or another. If he had said that pre-game I would have responded the same. Vivax's entrance is uninspiring and scummy, since he makes 6 pointless posts about reads that he's not read enough of the thread to be confident on. | ||
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Hapahauli
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In general, we should be voting for someone who 1) is valuable to the town if alive, and 2) has a reasonable chance of getting shot on N1. Slam does not fit category 2, even if he looks super town. Even if Grack starts looking more town, he also does not fit category 2. Of the players so far, I think Trfel fits both categories the best. ##Vote Trfel | ||
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Hapahauli
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I have noticed that you have been critical of Slam's "joke" candidacy. Why then are you voting for Grack's campaign? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 00:45 Vivax wrote: Strike while the iron is hot. I might forget something that caught my eye if I don't instantly write about it. But noted that to you the posts are pointless. Are they also pointless when I'm caught up? No. There is a difference between: "Slam is mafia/suspicious/whatever for reasons*" *this read is subject to change after I read the thread. and "Slam is mafia/suspicious/whatever for reasons" The first doesn't inherently state anything. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 00:47 Jockmcplop wrote: Where are you getting the 'joke' candidacy thing from? I'm more critical of people assuming that slam's campaign makes him town, and i'm critical of slam putting that idea forward too. I have never said anything about slam's campaign being a joke or that i think about it in that way. I don't think he's joking at all. I'm voting for grack because he was thinking along similar lines to me as regards to slam's campaign not making him town, and bought it up in the thread before I did, so I gave him town points. I figure I'm better off voting for someone other than myself as mayor because i'm more likely to be able to pick out a town and help them be mayor than i am to do anything useful if i was mayor. At the moment grack has town points so he has my vote. So is it fair to say that of the thread, you consider Grack the "towniest"? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 01:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Can you elaborate more on this subject? Like in more detailed way, quote what he said and explain how it is as you wrote here. I got a bit more busy with work, so i am gonna be around properly in about 3.5 hrs. Until then i am just watching mostly. I think he has also appropriately pinged Grack's posts... #130 and #132 are observant. Grack piggybacked off of one of my posts (see "commiseration" #131). Trfel appropriately called it out in a measured way, not concluding that it made Grack ultra suspicious, but that it was an inherently useless and pointless post. Trfel's interactions with Grack on that page (notably #135 and #137) makes good points about the escalated "tone" that Grack takes in responding to Trfel. Certainly apologetic in an OOC sense, but still not backing down from his point. Rayn's relative passivity, which shows a degree of careful reading in the early game Mainly this post: On November 24 2020 15:03 Trfel wrote: While I'm at it, raynpelikoneet feels a bit off to me too. Reason being that he seemed like a bit of a push-over. No quotes right now because I'm on my phone and I'm too lazy to get up and walk to my computer. I'm used to raynpelikoneet being fairly stubborn, so this behavior seems strange to me. He said he couldn't read Alakaslam, and then later agreed about leaning town on Alakaslam. And he was suspicious of me for sensible reasons, and then ended up calling me maybe town. It would make sense if he liked my townread of Alakaslam, agreeing with it and then townreading me as well, but (1) would that really be enough to sway him from his initial read in both cases, and (2) he continued to poke at my Alakaslam townread to point out what he perceived as flaws with it. Hm. It's easy for Trfel to make a throwaway "suspicious of Rayn" post, but he ends up fairly justifiable suspicions given the early-game context. Based on my own interactions with you this game (Rayn), I am also somewhat surprised that we aren't ranting at each other yet. This doesn't make you inherently mafia, but the tone is different enough for me to take notice, and for me to nod my head when others take notice. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 01:20 Vivax wrote: You are saying I could now go back and take back what I said about Slam because I've read the thread after I said it? What would I say in the case where you are right and I find three dudes who I want to lynch more than him? Your implication is that I'd invalidate what I said about Slam while I'd just say I found three dudes who are scummier than him. In conclusion, you'd not like me to spell out whatever is going through my mind at a given moment if it isn't my baked out scumteam (which btw seems impossible D1 with these players)? Because that's what the purpose of you calling out my post as pointless would be if it isn't to just shovel shit in my general direction, which it felt like. No one is asking you to throw out a full scum-team less than 24 hours into day 1. Question: you believe I am "shoveling shit" at you since I pointed out something that you did that I perceived as "scummy" (useless posts, etc.). Is that not exactly the function of posting what you did about Slam? Posting a suspicion with qualifications, and then immediately hedging those suspicions? On November 25 2020 00:22 Vivax wrote: Anyway I don't want to call him mafia before I've read everything. Going to get to that now. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 02:15 Vivax wrote: Seems to be a thing atm to just say x is mafia without pointing out anything in specific, ignore questions and peace out again. At least that's the pattern for Jock and Slam on the last page. For Jock minus the x is mafia but it leaves a bad aftertaste that he dodges or misses Hapas question. Either way Trfel seems like a reasonable choice for mayor. Pretty much my only TR at this point aside from tentatively ticktock. I'm kinda in a hurry so hoped I could do more during these hours. In case someone wants to make me mayor, as in a rebellious maniac who mostly tryhards, here's my program. If I become mayor I'd use it as a vig shot on Shockeyy or FF if they don't rack up at least 2 pages of filter til the end of the day. That's the only thing that makes sense on a D1 with the awful scum hit rate and peeps should know. Otherwise I don't trust anyone to be able to figure out Shockeyy anyway. When they rack up the two pages under duress, my watchful gaze, I'd just try to compromise on a lynch with whom I think is town. Where did Jock dodge/miss my question? Upon a review of the thread, he answered what I asked of him to my knowledge. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 02:41 Vivax wrote: You said pointless and scummy. You explained why the pointless, you didn't explain why the scummy. ... Scum want to "look like they contribute, without actually contributing." Hence "pointless" in this context is a scumtell. Your posts, in effect, look like reads and contributions, but are actually not. It is the appearance vs the reality which creates the scumminess. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 03:25 Grackaroni wrote: That was mostly just my gut call going into it. Perhaps a mistrust of his town read on me from what I said about Slam. I'm on the fence. I initially would have put him as a slight town lean but after you asked me I started looking further and I might go in the opposite direction if prodded. Hapa is town independent of his read on me. He's laying out cases for who he thinks is town (Trfel) and trying to make him mayor. I trust that he looked through some of Slam's scum games and I like that he made a post stating high confidence in these reads. Plus you've got to love him calling out Rayn for not getting into a rant with him after complaining about Rayn always fighting him. I assume the mayor will make clear who they are looking to kill and people will end up voting based off that. At the moment I don't think that's clear from anybody yet. Realistically I'm more likely to be lynched than lynching, but I'll go for it anyway. I am a hard man to please. Ask Rayn. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 03:25 Grackaroni wrote: ... Plus you've got to love him calling out Rayn for not getting into a rant with him after complaining about Rayn always fighting him. ... In all seriousness, why would this make me "town"? On its face, isn't this an inconsistency in my story? | ||
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Hapahauli
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There needs to be some move by those who haven't voted to cast their vote. There also needs to be a move by those who aren't "viable candidates" to withdraw. As stated previously, I believe Trfel is a logical choice for mayor. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 06:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: idk, maybe to be less of "town leader" as you said, sit in the sidelines more and justify not being shot. i dont know why mafia does stupid stuff. you do those as well as anyone else does Let's assume that I am mafia-hapa, trying to live a lazy-scum-life and therefore avoiding the limelight. Would it still not be a good strategy for me to be elected mayor? I would have quite a nice excuse for being alive later in the game. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 06:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: But you'd have to lead. Which you as per your own words do not want to do. Lynch kills you regardless of bodyguard. If I get elected mayor and subsequently lynched on day 3 (as mafia), that's a lot better than getting lazy and getting lynched on day 3 as not-mayor. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 06:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: I dont really know what you want from me here? Do you like think it's scummy for me to think there is something wrong with best town player in the game not wanting to be mayor? Not really, I'm exploring the logic. How you think about problems influences my read on you. In an ideal world, I'd like to have you as mayor if I believe you are town. | ||
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Hapahauli
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My sense of Grack was that he was "softing" his suspicions on Trfel while "puffing out his chest". That type of "bravado" tends to come from mafia in my experience. Regarding Vivax, I can understand how some of the standoffishness and "grouchyness" are town-tells. What brings your confidence interval to "no way in hell Vivax is mafia this game"? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 25 2020 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: ... I dont really get what you are saying about Grack? I think Grack is a tricky and a smart player but i dont really think he is trying to make anything out of nothing here? Regarding Grack, it is possible that I am making something of nothing. All early-game cases have a good amount of guesswork. This game especially - there seems to be no player that is actively pushing the pace of the game along, and we frankly don't have much to go on. Anywho, my suspicions on Grack are something that I see reasonably often come from mafia. I wouldn't call my "confidence interval" on it super high (there's only so much accuracy to have in a 10-page game), but it's really the best I can go on at this point. With Grack, his play can be summed up as such: 1) A fairly substanceless mayoral "campaign"; 2) An interaction with Trfel in which he seems to soft-call Trfel mafia without directly saying so: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=9#175 (for example, him saying that Trfel wants to "dig himself out of a hole" is very difficult to construct as anything other than throwing suspicion at him) 3) A town-read on me with some... questionable logic... ... and that's the best I can go on at this point with 10 pages. And I'd rather talk about and attempt to find reasons that people are mafia rather than PoE my way into lynching lurkers. We may very will lynch a lurker, but I do not believe that is a good foundation of discussion. | ||
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Hapahauli
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So we have a lynch in 6 hours. This discussion needs to be about a) who is mayor, and b) who town wants dead. There are too many people talking about light suspicions and townreads. That is not important right now. Trfel for mayor. Whoever is mayor should shoot Grack or Shockeyy. I think Grack is mafia, and I think Trfel brought up the best point against him: he has been relatively active and running for mayor, but reading his filter, I have no sense of what is "platform" is and who he even wants lynched. That seems like the hallmark of scum "looking like they want to contribute." Shockeyy is remarkably disengaged in this game. He is existing, but again, no idea of what he wants to accomplish beyond his mayoral preferences. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 26 2020 02:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hapa why does shockeyy make this post if he is mafia with Grackaroni? I do not build associations between early game scumreads. I lynch scummy people. Obviously if we lynch Grack and he flips mafia, then Shockeyy looks better. On November 26 2020 01:14 Trfel wrote: Hapahauli, can I ask why you think ShoCkeyy is less interested than normal? To me, in terms of the amount of substance/reads, he seems very typical to me. Or does it have to do with non-substance posting? I think you are correct. Reading through his past games (particularly his scum game in Holy Guardians 2), he was doling out early game reads and attempting to contribute as mafia. My sense from his play this game is that he's more likely to be 3p or town. | ||
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Hapahauli
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I would be OK with lynching TT. It is more of a pure lurker policy lynch thing though. And it is the path of least resistance. Which annoys me, but is not a D1 disaster. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 26 2020 02:25 Grackaroni wrote: Have you read any of my games? Yes, I read a lot of them in Aperture. I will probably read them again. I was unable to draw any concrete conclusions from them. I am conscious of the fact that I did horribly misread you in all of Aperture, seemingly due to how "reactive" your playstyle is. This game... you are this mix of pro-active (campaign) followed by re-active (not much in the way of reads). It is this dissonance that I think makes you mafia. | ||
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Hapahauli
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1) I forgot that there are OOC reasons for which Shockeyy could be less active (newborn); 2) I went back and read both Holy Guardians 2 and his more recent town games (Aperture, Cop 2, etc.) and reviewed his early game play in those games compared to this one. I for some reason had in my mind that he was much more active and engaged in his town games. That was simply not the case. And even in his scum-game, he was much more engaged than I remembered. The conclusion is that is inactivity is a null-tell. I would also feel that scum would be a bit more pressured to at least try to keep up appearances. Also, it is incorrect that I "figured out" shockeyy at the end of Holy Guardians. That was actually Trfel, and I was largely influenced by his posting in the endgame. So naturally, I do listen and keep an open mind when he says something about Shockeyy's alignment. Regarding TT, he was not on my lynch list, because I prefer lynching scummy people rather than lurkers. At this point, I am left with 1 person I believe is mafia, but no one seems to agree with my read. Pragmatically, I would prefer to lynch the Lurker as option 2, and I am merely stating my preference. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 26 2020 02:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay so why is FF not mafia, Hapa? He could be. Points for "mafia-FF" is that he is relatively inactive and that his only contribution is a relatively useless list post: On November 26 2020 02:01 Fecalfeast wrote: Ray jock vivax slam are my towns The simple fact that many people want TT dead is troubling but TT only wants me dead so that's not much to help me change my mind on tt I think jock is towny based on tone and effort but I am aware he's a capable scum player. This is me hedging my town read incase of future embarrassment I honestly don't know at all what shockeyy has said or done but I'm going to continue scumleaning him for fun My grack read was kneejerk based on the mayoral candidacy at the start. I have not revisited I could probably make this post have a point or anything of substance but I'd rather not Point against is well... he doesn't actually give a shit about how he is perceived (see last line of post). That tends to come from town. All and all, I am still wrestling with his filter and cannot draw any concrete conclusions. | ||
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Hapahauli
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His new playstyle has a plausible explanation. Don't get me wrong. But I have doubt, and I do not want any doubt about the town mayor. As for my doubt: I can understand how there is less "rage" in his game, and that is not an inherently mafia-oriented thing. But he is not pushing the game forward in the way I would expect him to as town. Rayn is hyper paranoid, stubborn, and a bit of a "steamroller" in his typical town games. His mafia games have some of those traits, but in my experience, they are more toned down. | ||
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Hapahauli
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I once again would like Grack lynched. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Regarding Grack - I can't be sure especially in an "inactive" game like this. I'm really never sure about any D1 case, but I hope players realize that I have a pretty darn high D1 scum lynch rate. He is the strongest read that I have, and that is enough for me to want to lynch him on D1. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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Evil Mastermind Welcome! You are the Evil Mastermind! Uh oh! You have an evil scheme but no minions to help carry out your nefarious plot! On Night 0 you may recruit another player to be your Evil Minion. Your Evil Minion’s win condition will change to match yours. You and that player will be able to communicate HERE. On any night that you and your Evil Minion are alive, you combined have 1 kp that one of you can choose to deliver. If your Evil Minion ever dies, you will be able to recruit a new one the following Night. If you die (by KP or lynch), both you and your Evil Minion will die. You will also die if you ever attempt to recruit a member of the Mafia. Recruiting a bodyguard removes their bodyguard status unless you are also the Mayor. In the event that you recruit a town power role, your minion will retain their use of that role (however, they cannot act and carry out your KP). You win when all other players are dead, even if you are not alive. The OP specifies that the player can recruit a "minion" on Night 0. Is this a typo (i.e. it should be night 1)? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On November 26 2020 05:34 DoYouHas wrote: + Show Spoiler + On November 26 2020 05:28 Hapahauli wrote: Question regarding the Evil Mastermind role: The OP specifies that the player can recruit a "minion" on Night 0. Is this a typo (i.e. it should be night 1)? In the original setup designed for 14 players, we were going to start with a N0. This is a typo from that previous design. Since this is an open setup, are we going to get the "text" of the role as used in this game? Trying to confirm that the role substantially works as stated above, just with the Night 0 / Night 1 change. | ||
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Hapahauli
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1 mislynch, 1 mafia KP, and town is outnumbered :/ | ||
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The crux of it is that Vivax is present and around in the thread as the town starts to move to consolidate on a mayor and lynch target, but all of his posting is useless/unproductive. I also feel that his attitude towards Grack has some inconsistencies. -------- This is Vivax's first post after the thread starts to move to consolidate towards a mayoral candidate and a lynch: On November 25 2020 23:40 Vivax wrote: I think he just wanted to make a funny entrance. Don't really see him being mafia atm. Shockeyy is always like that. If I'd kill him then not because I think he's scum but because I will never be sure about what he is, probably. Someone mentioned earlier that Jock seemed less analytical than in his usual town games and I'll agree. I also find it odd in his case that he doesn't think Trfel is town given when they have been teammates and imo Trfel doesn't post like in that game (the "Trfel help" one). That said my lynch pool atm would be something along Shockeyy, Jock, Fefe. Maybe TickTock because he kinda stopped playing after getting townread by a few. Note the underlined, in which he specifies a preference for a large lynchpool of candidates. This is inherently a fine post if he uses this as a starting point to start focusing the town into certain lynch targets. The problem is that he never really attempts to narrow down this list at all. He generally throws some suspicion at Jock: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=18#343 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=18#357 Throws shade at FF/TT: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=21#410 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=21#414 Throws shade at Shockey while disapproving of the Grack lynch: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=21#420 And then more suspicion against multiple targets, adding me for good measure: On November 26 2020 04:59 Vivax wrote: Grack is right Trfel posted this earlier. Though it's more like he's talking about the speed at which he came up with them. Either way, if rayn mayor. Lynch TT, Jock, or Shockeyy pleeaaaaaase? In no particular order but what you might agree with. I think Hapa might be scum but no way he gets lynched D1. On top of that, he attacks the Grack lynch several times as the town starts to consolidate on him as a candidate. He does so without offering any real concrete backup plan himself: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=21#420 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=23#442 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=23#446 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=23#453 https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=23#457 There is only one effect of this and that it confuses the town amongst several lynch targets. There's no attempt to focus or solve the game - it's a scattershot of suspicion that doesn't lead the town anywhere. "Mafia giving the appearance of contributing while not actually contributing". Vivax is happy to talk about things he is not pleased with, but he is not talking about the things that are good for town. --------------------- Regarding his "inconsistent" suspicions on Grack: On November 26 2020 04:10 Vivax wrote: Trfel I don't really want a Grack lynch. Can we arrange that or do I vote another mayor? Not because he's supertown or anything but I think he's enjoyable to play with. Lynching Shockeyy would also help, because I have a hunch that I'm going to think he's mafia at some point anyway based on past experiences. And now I can't tell what he is. Why allow a pokerface in town? On November 26 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote: With the flip I might have to reconsider, but I didn't buy the argument that Grack was scum for things around his mayoral campaign. To me it seemed like an obvious shitpost. IE Hapa didn't respect the context which happens often to mafia when they look for reasons to point at someone. I do not think these two posts are congruent. | ||
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1) His posting is so wildly different from his scum-game in Aperture that I find it difficult to believe he is mafia. As mafia, it almost seems like he's constantly fighting the guilt of being scum. He is much looser here. 2) His move to consolidate the town on Rayn by abandoning his candidacy is objectively pro-town. My reservations against Rayn aside, it was very important at that point in the game for town to focus and consolidate. | ||
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On November 26 2020 07:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hmm okay. We know Grack was not mafia. We also know that Vivax was trying to get the lynch OFF grack. The most likely result will be lynching FF, do you agree? Why does Vivax care? Or well, try to look like he cares when he doesnt have to? I feel that you are overly-fixated on the various "effects" of the lynch. Mafia do things all the time that have no specific purpose. For example, a very "common" mafia play is to scream like bloody murder against the lynch of one townie, only to direct the lynch towards another townie. This allows mafia to look like they are contributing and potentially tell the town "I told you so" if the person that they are defending flips town. Mafia do these things for the larger purpose of "blending in". "Act like you are contributing without actually contributing". As for Vivax's actions here, it is more appropriate to consider the utility of what he is doing, especially since he is an experienced and capable town player. Here, his actions and posting are functionally useless, and his attempt to spread suspicion on several targets only hampers town's ability to consolidate on a lynch. Additionally, Vivax doesn't seem to have any reason to believe that Grack is town. Why is he hard-defending him to that degree? If Grack is null, he basically has the same chance of flipping mafia that any rando lurker lynch would have. | ||
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On November 26 2020 07:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: I will be honest i dont really know what slam would or would not post as mafia, or why he would do that. But still, even if this looks like i am contradicting myself, to me it looks like he knew grack is gonna flip not mafia. I think that invalidates your point (2). Also what does that even matter if both me and trfel are town? one of us is gonna decide the lynch anyways and slam has very little to say in that. I guess we are both stuck with having meta as a layer of looking slam's / vivax's posts "objectively", if you know what i mean? Problem is, you could justify lynching Slam in literally any game he plays if you only look at what he is "objectively" doing. Anyway, I am curious why you feel that Vivax's meta makes him very town here, given he had a relatively strong performance in his last scum game. Also, I don't get the sense that he is reading anything carefully. The way he played the end of Day 1 seems incredibly lazy. | ||
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On November 26 2020 07:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hell even his post after flip he said he assumed grack flipped town. Why dont you fucking look at the flip as first thing you come back after deadline if you are town??????? Can you elaborate? I get that Slam posted an answer to your question, and then posted: On November 26 2020 06:46 Alakaslam wrote: Eh. Yeah I am surprised by the flip, thought he was town. ...but that doesn't mean that he assumed grack flipped town. He said he was surprised and thought he would flip town. | ||
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For what it’s worth, I agree that Jock doesn’t look great, although for slightly different reasons. | ||
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Alakaslam - https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=26#512 for details. Rayn is just reading way too much into some little irrelevant thing with his posts. Trfel - Gives a shit. Observant. Super active around the deadline. Tictock - Behavior is flippant and aggressive despite his inactivity. Doesn't seem to try to want to blend in at all. Not sure what these guys are: Raynpelikoneet - I understand why his playstyle is different. My sense is that he's not pushing the game forward in a way that I would expect him to, even taking into account his desire "not to get annoyed by random things." Could be mafia, or could be me just being unfair. ShoCkeyy - Not enough information in filter. Relative inactivity/passivity is not alignment indicative for him. Fecalfeast - Similar to Shockey. Has a bit more of an attitude, but has generally been useless. Need to meta him later if I am alive. I think these guys are mafia: Jockmcplop - The majority of his play has been fixated on Slam's mayoral campaign, even though he fully admits he "never considered Slam a scumread". Furthermore, his "scumread" in Trfel is almost entirely based on that campaign. I generally can't remember anything that he did this game, which is indicative of posting substanceless things. A review of his filter shows generally substanceless things. For example this is the only post of any substance he made around the run-up to the mayoral vote deadline, and it's basically just a summary post with his preference for mayor. No scum-reads, no desire to get any particular target lynched, etc. On November 26 2020 01:50 Jockmcplop wrote: slam: Will do what town decides grack: TT TT: FeFe Rayn: FF or TT Fefe: TT maybe Shockeyy Trfel: me, shockeyy, FF, TT, Grack We need to get this down to 2 candidates who are trusted by town. Personally I would have one of grack/rayn as mayor and maybe slam as pardoner. I will probably revote grack just because I think TT has been super lazy just picking something Fefe said on the first page and leaving that as his scumread for the whole time. Although I didn't think slam's campaign naturally made him town, i never scumread him and still don't. Vivax - Stronger of the two reads. I have said what I have needed to say: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=26#511 On November 26 2020 07:16 Hapahauli wrote: I feel that you are overly-fixated on the various "effects" of the lynch. Mafia do things all the time that have no specific purpose. For example, a very "common" mafia play is to scream like bloody murder against the lynch of one townie, only to direct the lynch towards another townie. This allows mafia to look like they are contributing and potentially tell the town "I told you so" if the person that they are defending flips town. Mafia do these things for the larger purpose of "blending in". "Act like you are contributing without actually contributing". As for Vivax's actions here, it is more appropriate to consider the utility of what he is doing, especially since he is an experienced and capable town player. Here, his actions and posting are functionally useless, and his attempt to spread suspicion on several targets only hampers town's ability to consolidate on a lynch. Additionally, Vivax doesn't seem to have any reason to believe that Grack is town. Why is he hard-defending him to that degree? If Grack is null, he basically has the same chance of flipping mafia that any rando lurker lynch would have. | ||
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On November 27 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am thinking if i can actually solve the game right now. Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. | ||
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If I was mayor (in your position), I'd want to be VT, because it would be slightly easier for me to "solve" the game from my perspective in a mass claim situation. If you are referring to whether or not a mayor should be VT or Blue in general, it just depends on the blue role we are talking about. Mayor CPR doc is obviously insane. Mayor JK is pretty insane. Mayor [investigative role] is pretty good, though that is unlikely given Slam's flip. | ||
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On November 26 2020 12:53 Trfel wrote: I was making another list post and then I realized it was useless so I deleted it. Forgot that my thoughts on the Vivax case were in there, so I never actually posted them. Sorry. I don't really see Vivax's pursuit of multiple lynch targets as particularly compelling, I suppose. I agree with you that it's improper gameplay for town, but at the same time I could see it coming from town. I'm interested to see what Vivax has to say about it though, I'll let him speak for himself. Maybe I'm being dumb here. ... The point is that in addition to having this attitude of "lets lynch any one of these people", he also takes opposition to town's attempt to consolidate on the Grack lynch. It is the combination of these two things that is anti-town, because he shits on Town's one effort to consolidate while providing no alternative. It's purely criticism as opposed to anything constructive. As for the incongruencies around Grackaroni, you're saying that Vivax said both: (1) Grackaroni isn't supertown or anything (2) Didn't buy the arguments for Grackaroni being mafia To me, Vivax having effectively a null read of Grackaroni satisfies both of these conditions. He wouldn't want to keep him alive because he's towny, but he still wouldn't want to lynch him because he's not scummy. I'll keep re-evaluating though. ON TOP OF THAT, there is the Grack stuff. I did a poor job of explaining the incongruency. I was more referring to how Vivax mentions that he wants Grack alive because he enjoys playing with him, and then starts to be very against his lynch despite him being a null read. I can get how he'd do so if he thought Grack was town. He does not. I can get how he'd do so if he thought Grack had a higher chance of flipping town than other players... yet some of the other lurkers (i.e. Shockey) were null "cant read this player" reads. ---- So all in all, we are left with this story that an experienced forum mafia player is ok with lynching into a pool of lurkers, but not his null read Grack, and he's not going to try at all to guide town into what he wants beyond his pool of lurkers. I don't buy it. | ||
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His end of day play just looks really damn lazy. | ||
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On November 27 2020 09:11 ShoCkeyy wrote: I’m definitely lurking, but posting when possible. The slam kill imo probably happened because they were trying to give him some free time back for his newborn as well :D so my thought is Mafia is someone who understands what he’s going through. As the only other new father in the thread, doesn't this implicate you? Or Greymist I suppose. | ||
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Vivax's attitudes towards wanting to get lurkers before active players generally makes sense. I think his recent posting is much better. I've discussed some of my thoughts on Jocks filter previously. He hasn't posted, and that makes him as good of a lynch as any... even if the lack of resistance bothers me. Frankly, I'm pretty lost this game. I should have more time to play after the holiday weekend ends if I am alive. Hopefully getting rid of an inactive player will help thin the weeds or flip a red. | ||
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I am a Mad Hatter. My intent in playing as I did (not running for mayor) was to have a chance of using my role. I targeted Vivax N1 (roleblocked) on the basis of my scumread. I targeted Shockeyy N2, in that if I was killed, I would rather leave town in a position where they had to worry about one less lurker. Plus, if I take someone down with me (even if my read is incorrect), it's still LYLO as opposed to MYLO. I do not think Trfel's claim necessarily makes him mafia. I'm also not sure why someone else being roleblocked tonight would confirm "one of me or Trfel" as mafia. More thoughts when I'm home tonight. | ||
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I explained it. On November 30 2020 08:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why would you be killed Hapa, on N2? I doubt I would be killed. I basically took a 72 hour break from the game barring two super quick skims - one right before the D2 deadline, and one a few hours post-flip before submitting my night action. Also, there's no sense in not using my power, regardless if I think I'm getting shot or not. I did not state in my post that I thought I was getting shot - merely my justification for my actions if I did. | ||
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Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: nonono hapa.... you target shockeyy so N3 you can get rid of alurker,. but the game is already over by then. What on earth are you talking about? | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: i want you guys to explanin (hapa and trfel) why this game has 50% of the townies blue? Because if this exact scenario. A "normally" balanced Mini is usually 3 mislynches = loss. With the "evil mastermind" in the setup, 2 mislynches = loss. Town needs a fuckton of help in this seutp. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: i think 2 blues and a confirmed town in bg is already enough. Now why am i mafia? In my mind, it's you, TT, or Vivax. Of the three, I am probably the most confident in Vivax being mafia. I have to sit down and read you and TT, and I will likely not have thoughts until a very deep readthrough. A readthrough that I won't do right this second, because talking with you and Trfel is the priority. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:39 Trfel wrote: Yes, I agree that that is a terrible setup for town. And honestly, this is where things get complicated for me with the whole setup thing. 2 mafia, 1 evil mastermind, 7 town seems like a really rough setup. However, the bodyguard also confirms a town. Going down to 6 town when (presumably) the evil mastermind recruits a town, if all of us are blue you are saying that 4/6 town in the game are confirmed? Three blues and a bodyguard? That seems a bit ridiculous to me. I agree that maybe that's actually more balanced... it just feels excessive? I've only ever seen three blues in a non-mason game once before I think, mayyyybe twice... but last time it happened, I think we would have been more likely to win the game if it wasn't for having three blues because that made one of the blues doubt the alignment of another. I guess it's not for sure but it seems likely, setup-wise? Because that would be so many confirmed town. Also, in a setup with so much KP, would they really put more KP in the game? I would have maybe expected another doctor or something to try and gain town an extra mislynch, but more KP seems strange. I dunno for sure. I feel like you are towny otherwise, I looked through your filter and I don't see good reasons to call you mafia... But it's really really hard for me to see four confirmed town in a 10-player game. Thing is, you are forgetting about the Evil Mastermind, and how much that fucks town if a blue is recruited. | ||
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But is also a 3p buff. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: But you said it's me and Vivax most likely? Like i know you prolly have vivax as your top scum but hah.... Rayn, you are too good of a player for me to point at anything specific in your filter to find a scumslip. That is not a realistic way of how I am going to catch you. And even if there is something "suspicious", it's not like there's a way to argue against it. You're a good scum player, and I respect that. But my sense of your play is twofold: 1) You have been more "passive" than normal. I have had the "luck" of being able to really easily town read you based on your "rage" in the last two games I've played with you, and I do not have that luxury this game. 2) Nothing that you are doing is out of the scope of your scumplay. Fuck, I can even come up with good reasons against why my reads don't hold water, so you don't have to do it for me. But right now, we're in process of elimination territory. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: MY POINT EXACTLY; WHY YOU CLAIM STINKKKKKKKKKKKKKSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! Then why didn't you vote me yesterday? I all but claimed in my posting after my roleblock claim fiasco that I was a Mad Hatter. This should have been apparent to you then. | ||
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On November 27 2020 06:17 Hapahauli wrote: If I was mayor (in your position), I'd want to be VT, because it would be slightly easier for me to "solve" the game from my perspective in a mass claim situation. If you are referring to whether or not a mayor should be VT or Blue in general, it just depends on the blue role we are talking about. Mayor CPR doc is obviously insane. Mayor JK is pretty insane. Mayor [investigative role] is pretty good, though that is unlikely given Slam's flip. | ||
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So if I'm not running for mayor, that leaves two things: Mad Hatter or Vigi. | ||
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Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:54 raynpelikoneet wrote: likewhat is the dioffernce? VT, mafia, mad hatter, vigi? For you. How am i suppose to to do anything with that info, aside from telling you are NOT VT. My post admits that it is a good idea to run for mayor with a shit ton of blue roles. The flip side is that it is not necessarily optimal to run with certain roles, or really, a particular role. I wonder which one I left out of that post. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:56 Trfel wrote: Huh, interesting.......... So you didn't run for mayor purely because of your Mad Hatter role? In that, you were hoping to die and take someone out with you? Correct. My view was that: 1) I wanted to actually use my role, and/or; 2) If mafia was smart enough to pick up on that from the setup, I basically was guaranteed to stay alive and dodge shots, regardless of whether or not I was "protected". | ||
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On November 27 2020 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: I genuinely thought you were a vet because to me it only made sense why you would not run for mayor, then i saw there is no vet in the roles.... And as a reminder, he read the setup in detail., | ||
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I'll be around to chat for the rest of the night otherwise while I'm taking notes. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:01 Tictock wrote: You are not considering Mayor/Pardoner/Bodyguard as town favored balancing. This is a fair point. Bodyguard is a +town thing. I don't know much about balancing with 3P but EM isn't that strong of a role that I think town needs 3 blues. Incorrect. Think about this: EM can recruit the fucking mayor. I didn't see any rule against that. Do you realize how insane that is? Also giving town a hatter to compensate 3P KP doesn't make much sense to me as that seems like it would make the game even harder for town. Also incorrect. Consider the situation that we are in: me killing a fellow townie (in the event that I got shot) does not at all change how many mislynches the town is allowed. | ||
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As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons: 1) I basically afk'd for 3 days. 2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1? You are making way too many assumptions into what I am saying. I didn't believe that I had a "bomb" on Vivax. Nowhere do I state that, beyond saying that I targeted him on N1 and was roleblocked. If mafia chooses not to roleblock me on N2, they are not going to shoot me, because from their perspective, I am still fairly likely (given my filter) to bomb Vivax, who I believe is mafia. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:16 Trfel wrote: As for point 2, that requires mafia being extremely smart.... I don't know if mafia is that smart I suppose they could have assumed that I would jailkeep you again, thus roleblocking you, but that seems risky. All I am saying is that you can piece it together from my filter. What is the only role in the entire blue-list that cannot be used as mayor? It's not that hard to put together, and you don't have to be that smart to put it together. Also, why wouldn't the assumption that I be "saved" again be unlikely from a mafia perspective? | ||
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You are misreading my post. I do not believe I had any chance of killing Vivax on N1. I'm saying that if you look at my filter objectively from the start of N2, who is my likely target for a bomb? I believe it is Vivax. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:43 Tictock wrote: So you agree that mafia should have RB and Killed you? I believe mafia had two reasonable plays: 1) They can RB/Kill me if they think I am difficult to lynch in MYLO; 2) If they think I'm not a "dangerous" blue role, they can try to snipe the bodyguard or another blue role. Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:46 Tictock wrote: And if you are going to say, well mafia didn't RB me D1 it was Trfel Then who did the RB on Trfel? Mafia Roleblocker obviously, unless another JK wants to claim. If Mafia RB'd a VT on D1, that VT doesn't receive a notification. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: no but you are saying this now: Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax) As a thing why mafia wouldnt shoot you N2. And it makes no sense. Assume the following: 1) <Player> has posted suspicions on two players: Jock and Vivax. 2) Jock has died, leaving Vivax. 3) Vivax is mafia. 4) It is now N2, and mafia needs to decide on night actions. 5) Mafia has reason to believe that <Player> is a Mad Hatter. As mafia, do you risk shooting <player>? I'll admit, it relies on a lot of assumptions. I think the points re: Trfel's confirmed save on me N1 deterring a shot N2 is a much stronger argument. But that's the "logic" behind my statement. | ||
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If you are actually interested in an answer, I have nothing to hide. Explain it in one post. Like I'm 5. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: No your defense relies on vivax being mafia or? I have no idea what I'm "defending" against, because it feels like I'm answering a moving target with questions on it. I was asked roughly "why am I alive"? There are several plausible explanations: 1) I have not been active, therefore, mafia may not percieve me as a threat; 2) It was confirmed that I was JK'd Night 1. A mafia team (that doesn't include me) may feel very skittish about shooting into a target that was confirmed "saved" on N1, especially since the consequence of missing the shot means that town gets an extra mislynch. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY SHOCKEYY WAS SHOT, because there is no chance of him being saved. 3) If Vivax is mafia and mafia believes I'm a Mad Hatter, it's risky, since I spend a good majority of my filter attacking Vivax. Honestly, ignore 3 and focus on 2. | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:54 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why do you assume Trfel is town blue? My general profile of Trfel is as a pretty passive player. I believe that carries over into his scum-play. I do not see a passive player making a fake claim like this. It is rife with unknowns and is not a "passive" play. From his perspective, he could very well be forcing himself into a binary "Trfel v hapa" lynch situation. | ||
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If Trfel was RB'd, the most likely explanation is mafia RB. | ||
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I am running under the assumption that Trfel is town. And if Trfel is town, I was JK'd. Very strongly believe that I was JK'd night 1 is more accurate. Or basically confirmed in my mind anyway. Okay, so why does a team of me and Vivax shoot shockeyy? 3) Why is it risky? I mean to shoot you or whatever if you were JK'd N1? I dont get it, mafia doesnt know if you were jailed N1 or not but they still do the opposite they should regarding to you? You can project whatever feelings and thoughts onto a "mafia" team that you want, but ultimately, Shockeyy was shot. Have you thought about what that means regarding the game dynamic? Mafia basically shot a lurker who could have been a mislynch target today. (Frankly, that may completely exonerate you as mafia, because I don't think you would ever make that shot now that I think about it). So what does mafia have to believe or feel to shoot Shockeyy? They have to be super confident on a blue snipe, or super scared about missing. Option 1 is plausible. Option 2 is also plausible, since like I said before, if their shot is blocked, town gets an additional lynch, which is super powerful with a town bodyguard floating around with the ability to confirm himself town. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: i am prolly really bad this game but i thought jock made the N1 kill and i was hesitant to shit on you guys... It was pretty much a jock nk, this doesnt seem like hapa kill but he he has to be mafia. he just has to. no way he is where he is. lynch me if you dont think he is mafia. i dont care i just care about being right or wrong. What the fuck are you smoking or actually talking about? Jock NK? The fuck? Where is iamperfection when I need him? | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: I thought jock made the kill on slam at first. WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH ANYTHING? | ||
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I'm here, willing and able to talk. We can have a productive conversation, but please, please consolidate your thoughts. This will not be productive if I'm answering a string of random one-lined thoughts and questions. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: so aside wrom your rage did i shoot shockeyy or not? Fuck if I know. I'm spinning in circles. And apparently I'm incapable of actually filter diving and defending myself to rapid-fire questions. So I'm going to do this for now and dive for who I think is mafia tomorrow. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:21 Tictock wrote: Humm I suppose this is a fair point. Though it means it was a really bad idea for you to make it so obviuse what your role was. Which is actually your pov here, I never would have taken that post you quoted as a soft claim for hatter . If you didn't, you didn't. I may not have an accurate perception of how my post was taken by others. All I know is I didn't particularly care whether people knew what my role was or not. As I explained previously, if mafia thought I was a Mad Hatter, I believe that would serve as a general deterrent to shooting me. Atleast that's how I was thinking on D1/N1. And again as previously stated, the Shockeyy shot makes the most sense if mafia is trying to make a shot to dodge protection at all costs. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: I agree with this, then dont fuck with me please nad provide fair points instead of bs. I am not fucking with you. I am here, honestly answering questions. However, I cannot answer questions cleanly and coherently this rapid-fire and disjointed format. One, consolidated post. Please. | ||
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Since mafia hit the N2 shot, we are in MYLO. If mafia misses the N2 shot, we have the following scenario: - 5 town, one of which can confirm himself as town at any time. - 2 mafia. That gives town two mislynches out of a pool of 4 townies (since one can confirm himself as town). That's much tougher for mafia than the current scenario, where there's a pool of 4 townies to mislynch and town has only 1 mislynch. | ||
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I can go on and on about the "math" of it, but what's important at the end of the day is that Shockeyy died. That's a wieeeerd night kill. And given that it happened, the plausible explanation is that mafia was scared of missing the shot. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why does the mafia not just shoot the JK? If mafia misses the shot on N2, the JK doesn't claim. Mafia have to try to snipe the JK. Another plausible explanation is to try and snipe the JK. But why do you try and snipe Shockeyy of all players? You know that the JK has to be reading me as town. A quick skim of Shockeyy's filter (Ctrl F for Hapa) doesn't reveal any substantial hits. Shockeyy is also a plausible mislynch target. That's a lot to give up for a blue snipe. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: That's your claim. i dont know if it is true. I know people who wouldnt "snipe" shockeyy or even slam, so,,,, I am okay for tomorrow, i am gonna get this shit sorted out. It is. That's my story, and that's for me to try to argue while everyone else works out. It is unfair (and stupid) for me to propose "am I the type of player to shoot Shockey". But, Shockey is a weird-as-fuck night kill. If that doesn't give people in this game pause, then they're not thinking clearly about the game. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:12 Trfel wrote: Interesting. I am Jailkeeper. I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked. | ||
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On November 30 2020 10:28 Tictock wrote: Like I know you are down to a pool of Rayn/Vivax/Myself, assuming I read ok So I suppose I would have to accept a Rayn/Vivax world I've already shit up this thread enough over the past few hours. Not committing to any reads until I have had a chance to deep dive the thread, especially the days that I missed. Otherwise, I keep ping-ponging back and forth on how suspicious I am of Rayn and it isn't productive. | ||
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On November 30 2020 11:07 Tictock wrote: Is that a fairly accurate view though? Partially just making sure I understand your PoV, and partially as I feel that in your position you have assumed Trfel is town a bit easily when it should be possible for him to be mafiaRB. It is mechanically possible for Trfel to be a mafia RB. However, I think that is very unlikely. For that to be true, Trfel has to be willing to get into a binary lynch situation with me. And that's so out of line with how I perceive his mafia play and personality in general. I also think that town JK makes the game a hell of a lot more balanced than only 2 blue roles. | ||
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On November 30 2020 11:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: So am i mafia or not? My opinion changes every 5 minutes. I also can't read the damn thread with any focus if I keep getting peppered with questions. For full transparency, I believe you are more likely to flip mafia than TT at this point. As stated many times previously, will update tomorrow morning. However, I think Vivax is the most plausible mafia player left. He seems to be playing very lazy and disengaged, which is right on with his normal scum meta. | ||
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tl;dr -Vivax and TicTock come across as a very natural mafia team. - I think Rayn comes across as very town. I will preface this post with two additional points: - I feel that this is an "all or nothing" day for mafia due to the setup. If Trfel is indeed the JK (which I very strongly believe he is), he can effectively confirm a player as town tonight if mafia gets lynched today. I did not see anything in the OP about roleblock "priorities", which makes me think that he can block a shot. That is a super shitty situation for mafia, and it makes me think that mafia has to go "all in." - What this means is that associations and "building plausible mafia teams" are very accurate analysis here. Mafia is really not going to want to bus or consolidate in this spot, since bussing does not lead to a good result. On Vivax: I have said my piece on his general play. He is lazy and disengaged, which is how he historically plays as scum. The two things that stick out to me in his filter are: 1) The following interaction in which he establishes a Jock + Hapa scumteam. He does so while throwing suspicion at Shockeyy without following up on it: + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2020 22:14 Vivax wrote: Because of his biggish post when EoD approached. Plus keeping up the general nonchalantness when he was under lynch threat, which is his town tone usually. Now that it's answered, your turn. Who are people and are they more than those who wanna lynch Jock? You seem very happy to latch yourself onto Hapa's case here, and then hide behind the reasoning that a majority (is it?) agrees to lynch me. Call both scum equally but prefer one especially eh? The above is him throwing pretty clear shade at Shockeyy. You would expect him to follow up on this suspicion, but he doesn't at all. Instead, his next posts are all about the "Hapa + Jock scumteam" On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Softing suspicion at someone does not make them mafia. However, I believe that showing relative disinterest in Shockey, after very clearly articulating "shade" at him, makes Vivax mafia due to the context of his day one play. Vivax's "story" is that he was a player preoccupied by getting rid of lurkers first. Him ignoring Shockeyy, despite having reasons to suspect him, is incoherent with his story. For context, take a look at the underlined section in the following post. On November 28 2020 21:41 Vivax wrote: Rayn's point on Trfel is essentially that he's hypocritical with how peeps are throwing votes around on available wagons. As for FF it's that he's one of those people. Overall posting seems townie. I still think Hapa started off the day just like a mafia softing blue would. He goes whoops on his RB claim and doesn't have to reveal the role. But that obviously doesn't make him scum by itself. It just seems unusually sloppy for him. What imo makes him possible scum is (aside from various misreps, thinking of him calling my posting useless) his preference for active players in the lynches. And right now he should be thinking I'm bussing Jock and maybe deliver a scenario where that's possible. He seems otherwise content to let FF and Shockeyy remain in the null area, while he should be having a better read on rayn by now. Really good mafia pushes vocal players first and finishes the job in a finale of coinflips. Granted, I can't find anything in his filter that makes me go HA. It's just that I get a feeling of dishonesty from his preferences and the way he goes about me. This is exactly what Vivax is doing in the interaction above. He is telling the story of being concerned about lurkers, but when he finds a reason to be suspicious of a lurker (Shockeyy), he lets it slide in favor of other scumreads. 2) His reads, particularly his read on me, shows a pretty high degree of laziness: On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Underlined for emphasis. At this point in the game, the game is inactive, and I have a 3 page filter. It is not that difficult to read the game and see that I have a very clear scummread on Jock: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 Despite that, he throws in this comment without even reading. I do not think a player fucking up a case makes them scum necessarily. But I do think this lines up with his scum meta in that it shows that he's really not carefully reading the thread at all. | ||
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The way that TicTock approaches his Vivax read is very scummy. I think it is scummy regardless of Vivax's alignment, but I think it is especially so if Vivax is mafia. The first time that TicTock talks about Vivax is near the end of D1: On November 26 2020 03:44 Tictock wrote: Yolo scumteam Vivax/Hapa Clearly, he has some level of suspicion towards Vivax. On November 27 2020 12:00 Tictock wrote: Yea, rereading Vivax I still don't see him being mafia. Only thing I could see is that he has himself pretty on the sidelines and isn't making much of a splash. However the same could be said of multiple people. I don't really see mafia switching a vote last min or calling to make Grack Pardoner so the role dies either, but that's kinda wifom. Lastly, I think a Vivax/Jock team is unlikely given some of vivax's posts on Jock. He immediately follows this up by "changing his mind" on the Vivax read after "reading the thread". What I find curious and scummy about this post is that despite calling Vivax town, he articulates in the same breath a fantastic reason for why Vivax may be mafia regarding Vivax's relative inactivity/passivity. I will also note that there's no "substance" behind his Vivax read. Despite this, he continues attacking cases against vivax: On November 27 2020 14:41 Tictock wrote: Yea, the more I look at Hapa's case on Vivax I don't think it holds any water. I don't see why a mafia!vivax would push away from a mislynch on someone he has only stated is a null read. Going to look into the Jock stuff tomorrow. On November 28 2020 08:48 Tictock wrote: That looked like a decent catch on Vivax there Trfel but I can't quite substantiate it from Vivax's filter (I see him going back and forth on Jock and even says he'd shoot FF or Sho). Please feel free to show me what I missed. Had some minor shit come up this morning but I should have some time today. I will not be around for deadline tomorrow however. Oh and before I filter, I don't find Rayns case on FF very compelling either. Ff is low effort but his tone has been reading as town to me. @Rayn Do you think FF has a better chance at being mafia then Sho? ...he's happy to attack people's reads against Vivax, but again, no substance or rationale to believe that he's town beyond "these cases are bad". On November 28 2020 16:51 Tictock wrote: I mean I can respect that that read means a lot to you, but I just cannot understand it due to how I play... I think Unfortunately this puts us at something of an impass as my own poorly formed town reads on Vivax/FF (actually I am fairly confident on Vivax but FF is more tonal) leaves me looking at Jock. He again re-iterates his read on being "confident" regarding Vivax. But again, where is the substance? [uWhy[/u] does he read Vivax as mafia? The only serious reading of his filter (see post #2 above) suggests good reasons for Vivax being mafia. Otherwise, TT spends time attacking reasons for why Vivax is mafia rather than providing substance. | ||
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After reading through, I think he's very town. The things that strike out to me are: 1) His willingnness to go down paranoid "rabbit holes" (reads on FF, Slam, etc.) 2) His de-escalation tactics this game, both in the very beginning of the game: On November 24 2020 09:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: If it is about me then i dont take any offense. From the last time i think i did a bit after i figured out you are town. Here i really do not, since i dont think you have given any insight so far. Its okay though, i dont mind, but i also dont like you acting like this for ???? ... and in around my botched roleblock thing: On November 27 2020 06:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay let's cut this discussion for now. I don't think it'll help anymore. ##vote Vivax I do not at all associate scum Rayn with keeping a discussion focused, especially in the 2nd example. | ||
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The narrative is pretty simple. Town-Trfel and Town-Rayn articulate suspicions for why I am mafia. Mafia TicTock and Mafia Vivax sit back, watch it unfold, and add gas to the fire. It is no coincidence that Vivax and TT have posted these longform "anti-hapa" posts when they did - after the chaos of last night when the thread is more calm. Also, if you are town, and you are thinking about individual mafia players as opposed to mafia teams, you are doing yourself and town a great disservice. It is a fucking disaster for scum to bus knowing what we know (and assuming that Trfel is the actual JK, which no one seems to doubt), since Trfel can likely confirm an additional player as town tomorrow if we hit mafia today. | ||
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I have my final answer, and the ball is in your court. I am around and willing to answer questions if you are willing to listen. I am town, and even if I am going to be mislynched, I'll be damned if I am going down without a fight. | ||
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TT's case in summary accuses me of being mafia /w Vivax because somehow I am pushing Vivax without conviction. This is simply disingenuous. Firstly, I have consistently maintained that Vivax is mafia, aside from my end-of-D2 skim. At the end of D2, I read the thread for about 3 minutes and scrawled out a phone-post with a very unconfident vote swap, seeing that the entire thread had been moved off of Vivax. Any expectation that I can have confident reads after a brief skim is simply an unrealistic expectation. I will also note that my vote was effectively meaningless, since Jock already had 5 votes on him. Secondly, I have made it exceptionally clear throughout all of yesterday that I believe Vivax is mafia. My filter focuses on defending myself and answering questions that I'm asked. This may give the "impression" that my posting is not focused on Vivax, but that is simply misleading. If I am predominantly asked questions about other things, I am naturally going to defend myself, and my filer will naturally have more volume of subjects related to my answers to said questions. I will also note that TT's filter looks pretty much exactly what he is accusing me of. Today, he has soft-pushed Vivax the entirety of today while pushing a priority target (myself) as mafia. Secondly, from TT's case: A big part of this stems from Hapa not taking a stance on who he thinks is mafia today. Despite several times saying he thinks Vivax is scum, and a big chunk of his arguments as to why Mafia would not kill him RELIES on Vivax being mafia. TT's entire case against me also relies on Vivax being mafia. Think about the incongruency in holding that opinion. | ||
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Vivax' case essentially boils down to: 1) My "blue" claim is suspicious, and; 2) Why am I alive / unroleblocked. I cannot provide an answer for #2 beyond what I've already said. Mafia coulda/woulda/shoulda done/did anything. What is acknowledged by virtually everyone in the thread is that Trfel is the JK and he JK'd me N1. It is plausible for mafia to fear shooting into repeat protection. It is plausible that mafia may have feared that I would bomb Vivax. A lot of things are plausible, and I simply don't know what mafia was thinking. No one in my position can know these things (unless I am mafia). All I can offer is plausible explanations. As for my "blue" claim being suspicious, let me remind the thread that I may have a pretty decent reputation as a town player, but that does not extend to my ability to manage blue roles. I won a goddamn TL Mafia award for a blooper for my mason plays with prplhz in Rockband Mini Mafia way back when: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/369250-rockband-mini-mafia If anyone thinks I have a history of playing "clean", "carefully", or anything other than completely absent-mindedly with blue roles, that is simply incorrect. | ||
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See: "funniest moment" | ||
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On November 30 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote: Two more questions for Hapahauli. First, you said that Vivax's posting had improved recently when you were changing your vote to Jockmcplop. Can you elaborate a bit on that? I liked his response to your case, but beyond that I don't see a significant difference. I fully admit it was a pretty bad post. I had previously committed to making a brief return at the end of D2 after being preoccupied all weekend with family. I had a quick window, skimmed the thread for like 3 minutes, scrawled a quick post that I didn't think about too much, largely based on thread sentiment moving away from Vivax and onto Jock. There wasn't any careful thought at all behind the post, and if I were to go back, I wouldn't make it at all. I was in a mentality where I felt disengaged from the thread and therefore felt super unconfident about my reads. Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes:+ Show Spoiler + "TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish. Answered in posting above. | ||
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On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: ... The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. | ||
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On December 01 2020 02:00 Vivax wrote: I find it noteworthy that on D1, when generally lynching lurkers makes the most sense, you made that a reason for me being mafia. While on later days when there's generally more info around, not only do you sort of insist I should be further pursuing that strategy (saying that it was scummy I dropped Shockeyy in favour of Jock, who btw aside from things I pointed out that made me think he was scum, could be considered a lurker anyway before we knew he went completely afk), but in the rushed post afterwards, post-flip I think, you thought my reasoning made sense. Reads more like capitulation to me after you failed to get me lynched instead. I am not going to argue with mafia. You can characterize or ignore my answers however you want. | ||
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On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote: In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used. Who is my most likely scumbuddy? Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is. All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me. | ||
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On December 01 2020 02:39 Vivax wrote: In my opinion TT doesn't look like he made up his mind, while rayn is very aggressively pushing you. They're not even close in how they are handling their scumreads. That said, I think rayn is more likely mafia out of him and TT. You also keep insisting that bussing isn't worth it, which I disagree with. Bussing would probably be very worth it today and put Trfel in a difficult situation where in my scenario he's jailing TT. Not to mention that Trfel could still pull off a hero jail even if we mislynch. And the Shockeyy kill also tells me that mafia is hoping to mislynch me while it's probably you and rayn. Obviously rayn can't just press for my lynch with a straight face, so he's going for the bus play instead. It just wouldn't look good for you if I got killed, especially after claiming you had a role. I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static. Getting anything resembling substantive analysis from you is like squeezing a lemon. What started as "Hapa + Rayn are the likely scumteam because Rayn is bussing Hapa" is all of a sudden "well, TT is bussing Hapa, but not as hard". I have to squeeze the details from Vivax as if I was squeezing a lemon with my bare hands. That is not town Vivax. Also, the last part of this is worth re-quoting: I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static. Apparently, my read on Vivax is static. Funny enough, Vivax has been reading me as mafia for a longer period of time than I have been reading him as mafia. From Day 1: https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=190&topic_id=565699 https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=470&topic_id=565699 Being hypocritical, stupid, or not reading the thread is not alignment indicative in a general sense. However, it fits the profile of a lazy-mafia Vivax. What Vivax's case boils down to is an OMGUS. "Town-Hapa wouldn't claim blue like that. Town-Hapa wouldn't scum-read me like that". It may be the startings of suspicion and questions, but that is not a strong LYLO case. Despite this, Vivax is absolutely sure that I am mafia despite no evidence of him doing any significant legwork in reading the thread, questioning me, or looking through filters. Where is the paranoia in Vivax's play? Where is the emotion? Where is the general "giving-a-shit"? There is none, and the lack of those things speak volumes about his play. Vivax is content to make a few stiff and sarcastic quips, plop his vote down, and sit back. And that's mafia-play here to a T. | ||
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Think about that. | ||
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On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: My lurker concern was centered on D1. Pointing out that Shockeyy seemed very eager to follow your points has nothing to do with lurkers. He dropped it, I dropped it. As for your Jock scumread, it seemed nonexistent at the time considering he wasn't posting at all but you kept posting with the goal of lynching me. It just doesn't seem quite honest to have most agreeing on someone being mafia who you also claim to be scumreading and then proceed to push the other read instead. If Jock would have been mafia with you, that'd be textbook scumplay. The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Emphasis added. The entire point behind my longer Vivax post in #1031 is that it makes zero sense for town-Vivax to just "drop it" when the lurkiest player in the game (Shockeyy) does something he perceives as suspicious. That is incongruent with the idea of pursuing lurkers. Vivax's play provides lip service to "going after lurkers", but when he is provided an opportunity to go after the lurkiest player in the game, his attitude is "he dropped it", and therefore "I dropped it." That doesn't make any fucking sense. Instead, Vivax engaged Shockeyy a little bit when Shockeyy was suspicious of him, and when Shockeyy dropped suspicions of Vivax, Vivax's "job" as mafia was done. | ||
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On December 01 2020 04:57 Trfel wrote: Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix. I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something? I think "passive" was a misleading word-choice. As you see from my notes, I do perceive your scum play as more "direct, confident, and aggressive". By "passive", I mean that while I perceive your posting as more "aggressive", I do not perceive you as a risk-taker or gambler, which is what your JK claim would require. The way I approach meta reads is in two steps: 1) Build/understand a general profile of that person in general, both from a personality perspective and gameplay perspective. 2) Look at differences in scum/town games and try to identify how those differences are explained by gameplay and personality traits. For you, my general profile for you is that you are intelligent and carefully read the thread, but you are prone to negative swings in your mood. When you're town, those mood-swings manifest itself into a lack of confidence, self awareness, and wishy-washiness. For example, you tend to post long threads of analysis to bolster your confidence, in an effort to boost your confidence. Sometimes it works, and often times, you backtrack on your own analysis within the same post. When you're scum, you tend to lash-out much more in your mood-swings. These two posts stuck out to me from your last scum-game: On March 27 2020 11:01 Trfel wrote: GlowingBear and everyone else, care to respond to the actual points I've raised instead of meaningless nonsense? Getting kinda sick of this. Yes, I'm confused because one of my main scumreads is voting for the other one. I'm not confident enough in my reads to vote, given the circumstance. If you have any actual help or comments on my reads to help sort this out, I would really appreciate it. Otherwise, BUGGER OFF. On March 28 2020 02:27 Trfel wrote: I'm so sick of getting killed Day 1 for nonsense, garbage reasons, it happened the last two games. Yet again, no one has responded to the actual thoughts I've been sharing, people are picking on meaningless semantics. And there's a ridiculously scummy person (KelsierSC) who definitely deserves to be killed but no one cares. He "redeemed himself" with a single post that contained actual thinking: I was never non-comittal about [UoN]Sentinel, I never said he was a scum lean. I never said I was holding back. I said I wanted to wait for more information and see how his play evolved, which made sense given the circumstance. In this post KelsierSC even says that my two main pushes/scumreads, comprising the majority of my play this game, are both ok. Yet he still thinks I'm mafia. He's picking on semantics, making up reasons, and has absolutely NOT redeemed his earlier play. | ||
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But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context. | ||
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All and all, I cannot convince people not to consider the mechanics condemning. What's said has already been said in regards to blue density and setup. GreyMist is a guy that likes hosting "interesting" setups (see all of his setups, ever). This setup seemed designed to create a situation where the Evil Mastermind runs rampant and chaotic through the town. And that is how the game was balanced, though GreyMist's plans were foiled due to the D1 lynch. I urge people to take a step back and look at the filters and players ignoring the mechanics. Simply scum-hunt. If you do, you will see that Vivax and TT are playing a mafia-sided game. | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:29 Trfel wrote: I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me. Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive. Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff. Why is this setup not "balanced" if the Evil Mastermind takes a blue on N1? Or the town Mayor? I think a lot of your discussion discounts the sheer power of the role and the potential for chaos. If I am reading your post correctly, you also seem to be implying that the Evil Mastermind can only convert a VT, which is inaccurate to my knowledge. | ||
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Going on a limb and lynching Vivax or TT is going to feel a lot more insecure. If you're wrong, it's a lot more likely to be flamed post-game by an "angry townie". While I can be more confident since I know my alignment, you are not in that position. I am asking a lot for players to put aside a psychologically comfortable lynch in favor of something else. But if you want to win, that is what you have to do. Anyway, happy to talk about Vivax/TT reads. You have the golden opportunity to ask "scum-Hapa" rapid fire questions about his reads in the hopes that he slips up and reveals his scum buddy. Give it a shot? | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:56 Trfel wrote: Honestly I'm not really sure much of the mechanics of the setup. There are still some basic questions about how my own role works that I probably should ask, like roleblock ordering and stuff. Honestly I dunno if this setup is balanced any way you look at it. Interesting sure, but there are too many unpredictable things to make a balanced setup, depending on how long the blues stay alive and what the evil mastermind does. But yes, I would be more than happy to try and find your scum-buddy. Can I ask why you currently prefer Vivax to Tictock, given that you seem to consider them both near 100% mafia? Or was it arbitrary? I am very confident about the game state from my perspective. I would at this point be indifferent to lynching Vivax vs. TT. From my perspective yesterday (having not very deeply read D2/D3), I was much more convinced on Vivax than TT at that point in the game. Finding TT's "read progression" on Vivax and sitting down and reading the clusterfuck that is Rayn's filter made me much more confident on my stance regarding TT. | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:56 Trfel wrote: Honestly I'm not really sure much of the mechanics of the setup. There are still some basic questions about how my own role works that I probably should ask, like roleblock ordering and stuff. Honestly I dunno if this setup is balanced any way you look at it. Interesting sure, but there are too many unpredictable things to make a balanced setup, depending on how long the blues stay alive and what the evil mastermind does. And that is the exact point that I'm trying to make. This is an insane setup from any perspective, 2 blues, 3, 4, or whatever. Why then are players making setup assumptions based on balance (and subsequently reads based on those assumptions) when the entire premise of the setup is insane? | ||
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On December 01 2020 06:12 Trfel wrote: Nooo, Fecalfeast, you ruined it Vote for Hapahauli again? What exactly is ruined? FF is positioning himself well to lord over the townies who decide to lynch a blue. I'd say he's doing an excellent job. In all seriousness Trfel, you are expressing a lot of confusion over the setup and balance. How can you say then that this is a strong basis for lynching me? | ||
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I knew I could count on you Trfel <3 Now if Rayn is stubborn, are you ready to YOLO Pardon me? It would be an objectively terrible play, but it would be hilarious and awesome. | ||
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I hope he's not too mad at me for making him be late to work | ||
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The Jailkeeper is divided into 2 actions: 1) A roleblock that resolves first... 2) And THEN a save. This roleblock has the same priority as the mafia RB. So, in the scenario where: Player A is Jailkeeper Player B is Mafia RB Player C is a townie If Player A JK's Player B, and; If Player B both RB's Player A and shoots Player C; Player C survives that interaction, and Player B's KP is blocked. Therefore, we are in a position tomorrow (assuming we lynch mafia today) where Trfel, even if he is shot, can RB someone and confirm them as town or mafia. | ||
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If mafia gets lynched, it is 1 mafia v. 4 town with mafia to shoot on N3. Mafia basically has to target the JK. JK simply targets someone and states it in thread. If JK dies, JK's target is confirmed town. If JK lives, town has two lynches, allowing town to lynch JK's target AND another target (and allowing JK to act AGAIN the next night). So best case scenario, mafia has to 1v1 the only unconfirmed town in the thread on D4 or 5. That's pretty tough. | ||
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This is also why TicTock is mafia, because he somehow believes that it is optimal play for a Hapa/Vivax mafia team to willingly walk into a murderous situation for "our team" by bussing the shit out of each other from early N1. | ||
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I think Vivax is mafia. You think Vivax is mafia. Let's kill Vivax. After that, since we both think that Trfel is the JK, he can simply block me tomorrow and "confirm me as mafia". Sounds good? Game solved and over from your perspective. No need to argue or do anything. | ||
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On December 01 2020 08:41 Tictock wrote: He is kinda on the same boat as me. Hapa claimed mafia would not kill him because they might set off his bomb on mafia!Vivax. Rayn was rightfully hounding down that that makes no sense when they knew he didn't have a bomb down and could RB and kill him without any worry. The only mechanical kink in that theory is that mafia knowing you are JK might be trying to play around protection. However this was still Happa's initial suggestion for why mafia would not kill him. While I find that all telling, I think looking at Happa's overall play it is clear his thinking is fualty if he was in fact Hatter. First he contradicts himself saying he didn't want mayor because getting shit let's hit use the role, but he later attempts to clearly breadcrum his role. I also think him using his blue claim as an excuse to drop off the game for awhile is telling. Then you can add in my point about his clearly having a strong scum read on Vivax at the start of day, they spends a few posts going "I don't know who is mafia, I keep flip flopping on Rayn" after several pages of defending his claim to me and rayn "I'm in the same boat as Trfel, who at one point voted Hapa for mechanic-related reasons"... On December 01 2020 08:48 Tictock wrote: Let's not get too hung up on mechanics and setup. It is a bit too much WIFOM to be useful in a theoritical sense. Much better to try and take a look at the player actions, behavior around their claim, and how they attempted to use their role. However I will note that Bodyguard is similar to named town role AND acts as protection for mayor. I could add on but again I do not think pure mechanics should decide this as it is ultimately speculative until postgame ...but let's not overly focus on mechanics guys! That would be bad for town! | ||
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On December 01 2020 08:35 Hapahauli wrote: Let's make a deal TT. I think Vivax is mafia. You think Vivax is mafia. Let's kill Vivax. After that, since we both think that Trfel is the JK, he can simply block me tomorrow and "confirm me as mafia". Sounds good? Game solved and over from your perspective. No need to argue or do anything. The offer stands. If I were to get Trfel to endorse this plan, will you vote Vivax? Yes or no. | ||
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On December 01 2020 09:05 Tictock wrote: Are Mafia able to hold their KP? I did not see this in the OP. Assuming they have to shoot then if we lynch mafia Trfel has a chance to prevent KP and confirm mafia. I doubt I will move off Hapa/Vivax here, Vivax is the "safe" lynch since everyone seems to agree he should be mafia. I won't vote anyone else. It doesn't matter whether or not mafia can hold KP or not. Even if they can, the effect of mafia holding KP (assuming we lynch mafia today) is that town gets an extra lynch. i.e. assuming Vivax gets lynched today: N3 playerlist: - Rayn (Town according to TT perspective) - Trfel (JK according to TT perspective) - Hapa (Likely mafia according to TT perspective) - FF (Confirmed town) - TT If Trfel JK's me and I hold KP it is still optimal play for town to lynch me, since it would be 1 mafia v. 4 town on D4. | ||
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On December 01 2020 09:13 Tictock wrote: I was saying Rayn is in the same boat as me, keep up with my past self! You quoted Trfel's post, not Rayn's. Keep up with yourself m8. | ||
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On December 01 2020 08:56 Hapahauli wrote: @ TT The offer stands. If I were to get Trfel to endorse this plan, will you vote Vivax? Yes or no. Still waiting. | ||
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Now put up or shut up. You going with this plan or not? If Trfel JK's me tomorrow and there is no mafia night kill, town should policy lynch me period. | ||
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This is the only thing I am interested in you answering. | ||
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His refusal to engage the "plan" shows that he's not truly indifferent to the Hapa/Vivax lynch like he claims. | ||
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Even if Rayn doesn't come back, TT unvoting Vivax to create a no-lynch (when he supposedly has no preference between a Hapa/Vivax lynch) is a straight scum-claim and should get him instantly policy lynched next day. Also remember that a no-lynch does not lose town the game here, which would make such a switch pretty stupid from a scum-TT perspective. | ||
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Good night. | ||
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I’m not going to field more insane questions from you when it’s midnight. If you are town, you’ve played like shit all game. You’ve been convinced that Slam and FF were mafia for stupid reasons, and you still have the arrogance to try and push the same shit on me now. Maybe I’ll have more patience tomorrow morning. Who knows. I don’t know what it is about your play recently, but the way you play and interact puts me on tilt so fucking badly no matter how much I try to be patient and entertain your shit. I hope you’re mafia. I really do. But I don’t think you are and it pisses me off. | ||
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Rayn, thank you finally for posting one coherent post of your suspicions on me. I've been waiting for that all day. | ||
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On December 01 2020 15:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: [/b]Now Trfel and FF. You both know Hapahauli is extremely capable as town. Do you believe that town hapa: Doesnt want to be mayor just because he doent want responsibility and hecause he cannot then use his role, while trying to convince me into lynching grack for "i have historically very good accuracy of hitting mafia D1"? Why doesnt he think he will get shot N1 anyways? I want to use my role. Period. It's town KP. Reads jock mafia for his posting well enouugh to put him as very clear scumread D2 just to later on end up saying jock is mafia because he doesnt remember anything jock has posted? Bullshit and misleading. I state that I didn't remember what Jock said on #532. https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=27#532 This inspires me to case him, which I post [i]after in #591: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 Briefly as it was, reads TT town simply just for reading rayn's filter. In MYLO??? Where the fuck did I do this? As claimed blue doesnt get shot or roleblocked N2 over shockeyy? It happened. Uses ate in "i understand you can want to lynch me for three blues being too much". Now thats simply bullshit and noone should vote hapa for that, why doesnt he say so? Because of ate, it's better if peoplerealise itthemselves. Still, why is he allowing people to scumread him for utterly shit reasons if he is town? It happened. The only "reason" that you and anyone else has to lynch me is for setup speculation and "because I wasn't shot." There are many reasons I'd be alive. For example: Lest I remind the thread that I was gone celebrating the holidays with my family for 3-4 days and wasn't engaged in an entire day of play. | ||
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On December 01 2020 15:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might also add that if my case on FF was so terrible why doesnt hapa say that before ff is confirmed town? It's almost like I was gone from the thread for the whole weekend and didn't have the chance to call you out on your idiocy live. Idunno. Do you read anything with context? | ||
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Uses ate in "i understand you can want to lynch me for three blues being too much". Now thats simply bullshit and noone should vote hapa for that, why doesnt he say so? Because of ate, it's better if peoplerealise itthemselves. Still, why is he allowing people to scumread him for utterly shit reasons if he is town? God even reading this shit makes me pissed off. Hapa can't control the reasons for which people scum read him, therefore he is scum. | ||
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Certainly not for easily disprovable shit that Rayn posts: Bullshit and misleading. I state that I didn't remember what Jock said on #532. https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=27#532 This inspires me to case him, which I post [i]after in #591: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 | ||
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On December 01 2020 14:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: He doesnt outright say it but implies it over and over again by trfel's jail and in his discussion with TT. Like he says we lynch vivax and trfel jails him and if he is mafia it's gg. But it doesnt even come to it if vivax is NOT mafia. Again, flawed reasoning to make tou look elsewhere other than him. "Hapa didn't say it, but I'm just going to read into what he said until I think he is scummy". | ||
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Sometimes, he has his head so much up his as that he reads more lines in his colon than he does in thread. It's probably town but it's so fucking bad. | ||
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On December 01 2020 21:27 Hapahauli wrote: "Hapa didn't say it, but I'm just going to read into what he said until I think he is scummy". Oh there... probably there. > | ||
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Thx. | ||
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On December 01 2020 22:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think i provided explanation to this one. Yes you were talking to TT and from TT's pov the game is solved then yeah, but after that you say "now we just need Trfel on board" and that's where you in my opinion imply that. Sure you're gonna say it's something else as either alignment but that's still what i think. This post here: I am saying that the game is solved from TT's perspective you numbskull. It's not even that hard to infer. | ||
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On December 01 2020 22:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hapa you are right about the Jock read and the TT thing in my case. I misread your TT post on phone and i took what FF said at face value and didnt look at it properly back then because i thought FF was mafia at the time and the whole "people who voted for jock" post was weak in my opinion. Now you said earlier that you cannot be mafia with anyone in the game. Why can't you be mafia with: - me - vivax - TT ? How good of an actor do you think I am as mafia? How do you perceive my scum play to be? | ||
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On December 01 2020 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: What does that matter? In the mafiascum game i wasn't able to catch you because i let go of your scummy things when you bussed and made some good psots i would expect town!hapa to make. That's the latest news on that front for me. I havent seen you as mafia in ages before that. Now can you answer my question? I think we have vastly different interpretations of what I am capable of as scum. In that "mafiascum game", how do you perceive I played? I recall making some long-form posts and largely lurking until I got lynched. Is that what you think I'm doing this game? My sense of your analysis of my play is that "if Hapa does something that I don't expect him to do, he is mafia". The problem is that I do stupid shit all the time. I put barely any care into my posts as town, since I'm often firing off responses on sight. So obviously I have "inconsistencies" or stupid shit in my filter all the time as town. And you damn well know this, because I've rolled town every game I've played this year, and you've tunneled me for extended periods of time in every damn game I've played this year despite my alignment. My perception of my scum play is that I would not be capable of acting "rage" or "tilt" in the way that I am interacting with you, TT, or Vivax. But that is obviously a self-serving argument, which makes your whole question incredibly stupid for making me make a self-serving argument. It is plainly obvious that I have been try-harding the fuck out of this game since the holiday weekend has ended. If you want to ignore that context, and if you want to believe that scum-Hapa is capable of that, then you are scum or you don't know me or anything about my playstyle at all. | ||
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That is the implication of this: Doesnt want to be mayor just because he [i]doent want responsibility and hecause he cannot then use his role, while trying to convince me into lynching grack for "i have historically very good accuracy of hitting mafia D1"? Why doesnt he think he will get shot N1 anyways? You are basically saying that my blue claim doesn't make sense in the context of my play, when it is very easily explained by me posting the first thing that comes to my mind when I play as town. | ||
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How many times did you tunnel me in our last 3 games? What was my alignment in our last 3 games? | ||
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On December 01 2020 22:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why can't you just answer me why you cannot be mafia with me, TT or Vivax? You explicitly said there is no player you are mafia with so can we hear why is that? I answered you. We are going to play this the opposite way, in which you tell me how I can be mafia with TT or Vivax, and then I tell you how stupid you are. | ||
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On December 01 2020 22:49 raynpelikoneet wrote: No i am saying that regardless of your affiliation you didnt read that not all roleblocks are notified. I think you'd want to be mayor regardless of your role because you think youre really good and if you hit mafia you'll be killed anyways on N1. And that's the problem and why you know jack shit about how I play and my playstyle. I give half of a shit about power roles and mechanics and do whatever comes first to my mind regarding them. | ||
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Do what you will Rayn. Apparently I cannot interact with you without going on full tilt, so I will not interact with you any further. | ||
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Well I'd rather talk to mafia than Rayn I suppose. | ||
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On December 02 2020 01:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: dont buddy me when you just did unbuddy me Hey Rayn, let’s argue for 20 more posts and we’ll clinch the game. | ||
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JK, we're mafia together Ryan. | ||
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I can answer your questions, make you retract things (like you already have done), and you'll just come up with more bullshit that's plainly false. There is no point in engaging in that game. The only way I see forward is to troll you until you realize that Vivax is making the scummiest posts on earth. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: If my stuff is plainly false why dont you point it out? Because: 1) It will never end. 2) Some of the things you bring up are so insufferingly obviously wrong that I feel insulted at having to try and explain them. | ||
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Step 2 is now explaining to me why you were wrong. | ||
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Why I changed my read on you, or why my meta assessments of you don't seemingly "match"? I changed my read on you. Both of those statements are part of your meta. Statement 2 applies in all of your town games. Statement 1 applies in some of your town games, but I believe it rarely, if ever manifests itself in your scumgames. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: i dont think you have to look that up if youre town. Look what up? | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is the question: You scumread me early on in the game for: Doing 1, but 'I do not at all associate scum Rayn with keeping a discussion focused'? So you're asking how my read evolved? Day 1, my perception is that you were passive and inactive. See: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=21#403 On November 26 2020 03:48 Hapahauli wrote: To be clear, I do not trust Rayn enough for him to be Mayor. His new playstyle has a plausible explanation. Don't get me wrong. But I have doubt, and I do not want any doubt about the town mayor. As for my doubt: I can understand how there is less "rage" in his game, and that is not an inherently mafia-oriented thing. But he is not pushing the game forward in the way I would expect him to as town. Rayn is hyper paranoid, stubborn, and a bit of a "steamroller" in his typical town games. His mafia games have some of those traits, but in my experience, they are more toned down. https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 Raynpelikoneet - I understand why his playstyle is different. My sense is that he's not pushing the game forward in a way that I would expect him to, even taking into account his desire "not to get annoyed by random things." Could be mafia, or could be me just being unfair. My read doesn't really change, and then I subsequently leave the thread for a pretty long period of time. By the time I am back, I am in a situation where I am responding to a lot of questions without having really seriously read the thread. When I seriously read the thread yesterday, I update my opinion. From D1, you had done a lot of things that I hadn't had the time to sit down and wrestle with. Additionally, taking your filter in context and thinking about it more made me focus (I think appropriately) on some of your de-escalation tactics rather than some other bits of your D1 gameplay. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: I also dont like at all you shitting on my reads on FF and Slam because noone in this game has been right so far and it feels like you'd rether attack my credibility in total instead of trying to lynch mafia. I am known to lose my temper. | ||
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"Yesterday" meaning that my deep readthrough of the thread was extremely late two days ago as well as yesterday morning. The post you just quoted in #1288 is from after I did a readthrough and spammed all my cases. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:10 Hapahauli wrote: Because: 1) It will never end. 2) Some of the things you bring up are so insufferingly obviously wrong that I feel insulted at having to try and explain them. And we circle back to #1. I address something. It makes sense to you. You bring up something else. I really don't see the end in sight here, which makes me think I am wasting my time. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: No but you should rather type in why my read is stupid. You want a post-hoc justification for why I think your read was stupid when Slam and FF already flipped town? Or you expected me to type more details about your "stupid read" on Slam and FF when I rage posted about it? Both are pretty dumb questions that will do nothing to sort out my alignment, but I only want to answer one. | ||
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Who is my most plausible scumbuddy? Why is Vivax town? | ||
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On November 25 2020 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think Vivax is actually reading the game and making at least vivax!reasonable points. I think he is like my nemesis when we are both town (lol), he will probably call me mafia like 100 times this game and i think his conspiracy theories can even ruin the game for the town at times.... But anyways i think there has been like one game pretty much EVER when i have not been able to determine Vivax as mafia -- and very early -- when he has been mafia. He can post stupid ass shit, he can not even make any sense at all but the no matter if the game is 10 pages or 100 pages mafia!Vivax doesn't care to read the thread at all with any insight, period. Pretty much it was the post i asked him about, the Slam thing about Slam trying to make friends with you Hapa. I think it is too convoluted read to make if you are Vivax and play as mafia as Vivax plays as mafia. That's pretty much it, there are some other minor points like him getting and WILLFULLY getting into an argument with you, but the main point is that he is genuinely reading the game more than mafia!Vivax would. ... What is your assessment of this post and Vivax's play? | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why cant you just aswer my question? Because you ask ambiguous questions that have multiple meanings and interpretations. And I cannot read minds. | ||
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I was rageposting and spewing shit. There's no rationale to it beyond that. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:54 Hapahauli wrote: What's there to elaborate? I was rageposting and spewing shit. There's no rationale to it beyond that. | ||
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Rayn confirm wrong on 2 people. Hapa is angry and tired at midnight. Hapa rageposts and references confirmed wrong reads. Hapa doesn't think much other than that. Hapa sleep. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well is it shit or not and if it is not why did you call mafia team of rayn + vivax before even reading what i wanted to do D2 aside from trying to save the fucking townie that got lynched? I did not call the Rayn/Vivax team confidently. I simply blurted it out because people were asking about my reads. I think I was pretty clear about how unsolid my reads were at the time, and that I didn't want to make concrete committments beyond actually reading the damn thread. | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well is it shit or not and if it is not why did you call mafia team of rayn + vivax before even reading what i wanted to do D2 aside from trying to save the fucking townie that got lynched? Save who? Jock? My scumread on D2? While I was away from the game? The fuck? | ||
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On December 02 2020 02:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is exactly what there is to elaborate. What are you talking about? I wasn't even playing the game. What are you ona bout me keeping FF as a potential mislynch? I was gone for the whole weekend. Skimmed the thread once and voted Jock. By the time I came back, FF was confirmed town. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: And you shat on my case, why? I explained it. Because I was pissed at you and attacked you with the first thing that came to my mind. I get angry and do irrational things Rayn. You know that, right? | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: I dont care what you spent whenever, i am not dick enough to call you mafia for something you dont know. But you explicitly claimed my cases on slam and ff were shit so lets hear why you think my case on ff was shit. That's what i am asking, and you are continuously dodging the question. I AM NOT DODGING THE QUESTION. I HAVE NO REASON TO THINK YOUR CASE ON FF WAS SHIT. I WAS SHITPOSTING AND ANGRY. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:12 Trfel wrote: @Hapahauli, you literally never read raynpelikoneet's case on Fecalfeast? I can understand missing it in the brief skim, but I thought you would have seen it in the deep read to catch up at least? Or did you skip Day 2 in that read? I'm confused/suspicious here. I read it, hence me referencing it in my case for "town-Rayn" yesterday morning. I'm saying that at yesterday at midnight, when Rayn posts some stupid shit accusing me of being mafia because I didn't want to answer rapid fire questions from him at midnight right when I was going to bed: On December 01 2020 13:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: No i am saying your reasoning to try to make people look elsewhere is flawed and town player should know that, ergo not use that as its simply nothing but an excuse. Town players dont use, at least good town players, bs reasoning to do something, anything. Another pointis that the lasttimei was around hapa disnt want to engage rapid fire questioning, yet when i wasnt around he was totally okay with it, hell he evend asked for it.. ... and then I went on tilt and rageposted, simply with the surface analysis that he was wrong on Slam and FF, and he was wrong on me for similar reasons. No thought went into it beyon dthat. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:17 Vivax wrote: If you think that and I think you were one of those advocating that mafia wouldn't be likely to bus here, why am I TTs preferred lynch? You are in a TT + Vivax world? Why isn't he voting Hapa? Why are you encouraging Trfel to be suspicious of TT when your mafia team is Hapa/Rayn? OhrightwellVivaxismafiathings. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: who thinks i have been super unreasonable here against anyone? I think you were being super fucking unreasonable towards me. And that's why I acted why I did. And I still think you are being unreasonable. Maybe I'll have a different view of this when I have a chance to cool down post game. Who knows. | ||
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But I don't want to tell other people that. They might see through our bus play. | ||
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It is obviously "unnecessary "because if you and I are scumbuddies, it doesn't matter whether or not we lynch Vivax or TT. It's unnecessary, just like your question if you were to stop and think about his post for 5 seconds. *This post is me being super subtle about my Vivax soft-push. | ||
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I hereby give the town the right to reference this post later. | ||
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On December 02 2020 04:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: he is calling me and vivax mafia????????? Well obviously he is wrong and should be calling me mafia. | ||
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On December 02 2020 04:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: what happens after 4 days? I probably will never forgive him for another few days. | ||
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On December 02 2020 04:49 Trfel wrote: So you're not so confident about Vivax being mafia before? Or Tictock? I know you said there is a chance of raynpelikoneet being mafia now, is that just moody, or do you now have a preference between Vivax and Tictock? No, I'm on the TT/Vivax boat. Just some light trolling and sarcastic commentary. Moreso highlighting the inconsistency - why is TT not suspicious of me given my "voting pattern"? | ||
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On December 02 2020 05:47 Vivax wrote: Imagine the face when you get the bill for a Billionaire Vodka. He doesn't strike me as a man of expensive tastes. I hope not anyway. | ||
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What do you typically drink anyway? | ||
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I guess if Rayn is actually vigi, he could shoot mafia as well. | ||
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On December 02 2020 06:29 Fecalfeast wrote: So if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and it was just trfel as jailer (trfel mafia rb claiming jk is pretty cool btw) then couldn't trfel jail me, rayn shoots a mafia and we keep the game going? This is the moment I realize trfel is probably not jailer. Or rayn is mafia Also, Trfel has to go to try and RB KP (assming he is the jailer) AFAIK. Otherwise, if mafia RB's him, he never saves anyone. The "roleblock" portion of his action would resolve, but his "save" would not, according to the hosts. | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:06 Trfel wrote: Also, shouldn't you know what I did if you are town? Well I didn't receive a roleblock notification if that's what you're asking. | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:13 Trfel wrote: Hapahauli, would mafia hold their KP here? I don't think so actually. I thought it was possible, but it's not like mafia guarentees a mislynch if you RB a poor unfortunate townie and we auto-lynch him. | ||
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For scum to hold the shot, they would have to have to have a >75% chance of victory by holding it. Mafia holding the shot would be an attempt to "frame" a townie or mislynch Trfel. Problem is that Trfel has a 50% chance of "blocking" mafia. Therefore from Trfel's perspective, you end up with a 50% of Trfel targeting a mafia and that mafia player getting "framed" by holding the shot, which does not seem like good odds to do so. So I'd say no. I don't think mafia holds KP here. | ||
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Obviously throw out all of this analysis if you targeted me Trfel, which in that case, you'd be lying scum since I wasn't roleblocked, and I'm obviously super innocent. | ||
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I failed to take into account that Trfel only has three realistic targets: Myself, Rayn and Vivax. That's 1/3 odds of blocking the shot, and 2/3 odds of mafia victory. So mafia needs >66% chance... and if they hold the shot, Mafia has a 66% chance of being targeted... Which is worse odds than the first scenario, so the "mafia has bad odds to hold KP" stands I think. | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:33 Vivax wrote: Hapa would have claimed RB if you jailed him. So kinda obvious tbh. But how TF are you roleblocked and rayn jailed? Something doesn't add up here. Roleblock mechanics. Host confirmed that JK is broken down into 2 stages: 1) A high priority roleblock, then subsequently; 2) A low priority save. Therefore, Trfel can roleblock if he is roleblocked, but he cannot save | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:45 Vivax wrote: If I had been targeted, it would be game over. Simples. That's not true, since mafia can hold KP, and you would have no way of knowing if you were "roleblocked" (since you claim to be a VT). | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:47 Vivax wrote: Why would mafia hold KP? That's not a possibility I'm willing to entertain. Explain the benefit to me. I don't think they would (see odds analysis last page), but it is possible for mafia to have a plan of trying to "frame" the target of Trfel's block. | ||
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Trfel should be confirmed town, since the game would be over if he wasn't JK (no way to block mafia shot). | ||
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Myself, Vivax, and Rayn Rayn gets lynched today, which leaves us at 1 mafia v 3 town seemingly. Then Trfel blocks me. If shot doesn't go through, I get lynched (conversely, if shot goes through, lynch Vivax). Then Trfel can simply block Vivax if I flip town, and lynch mafia in a 1v2 LYLO. | ||
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Which would be BALLER AS FUCK, but unlikely. | ||
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So lets lynch Rayn. He is guaranteed mafia. Then the game is actually mechanically and mathematically over. | ||
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Town has no way of being alive today unless Trfel is actually the JK. From your perspective, mafia had to shoot. Therefore, Rayn is confirmed mafia. And if Rayn flips mafia, town can safely lynch both you (Vivax) and me in subsequent days. | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:32 Hapahauli wrote: I'm still buying you a drink Rayn. | ||
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FF (confirmed town by mechanics) Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Rayn (confirmed mafia from everyone's perspective). Rayn gets lynched. N4 Start: FF (confirmed town by mechanics) Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Trfel blocks Hapa. If a player dies, Vivax is confirmed mafia, GG. If no town dies, Hapa gets policy lynched next day. D5 start (if no town dies): FF (confirmed town by mechanics) Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK Hapa (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Vivax (plausible mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Hapa policy lynched. If I flip red, GG. If I flip town, Vivax confirmed mafia. N5 Start: FF (confirmed town by mechanics) Trfel (no way for game to be alive right now unless he is JK Vivax (confirmed mafia from FF/Trfel perspective) Trfel blocks Vivax. No mafia KP delivered. Vivax lynched on D6, GG. | ||
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On December 02 2020 09:08 iamperfection wrote: no offense hapa but i thought you played really bad at points. That comeback post just before the lynch was atrocious. Although i do like how you referenced it like a lawyer later to try to minimize the impact. Totally agree. I went on tilt for like 40% of this game. | ||
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On December 02 2020 09:18 Tictock wrote: Last thing I will pull up Hapa I was really hoping you would enguage me on this. I understand you were burnt out from being interrogated by mafia!Ryan but this was why I went hard on you because I felt as town this was our chance to work together. Yeah mental state was not such that I could have avoided lynching you. I think. Which is ofc my fault. | ||
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On December 02 2020 10:18 Grackaroni wrote: I put in some hard hitting analysis at the end of the obs QT. Who were you planning on recruiting if you lived? | ||
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On December 01 2020 07:15 Hapahauli wrote: FYI, I did confirm roleblock mechanics with the host. The Jailkeeper is divided into 2 actions: 1) A roleblock that resolves first... 2) And THEN a save. This roleblock has the same priority as the mafia RB. So, in the scenario where: Player A is Jailkeeper Player B is Mafia RB Player C is a townie If Player A JK's Player B, and; If Player B both RB's Player A and shoots Player C; Player C survives that interaction, and Player B's KP is blocked. Therefore, we are in a position tomorrow (assuming we lynch mafia today) where Trfel, even if he is shot, can RB someone and confirm them as town or mafia. | ||
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DYH has already touched on some reasons, namely maintaining the consistency of hosting position (i.e. sticking by the initial decision of seeking the approval of the whole mafia team for a concession). In addition, having the game ripped out from under a player who does not agree to concede creates a lot of unnecessary hard feelings, and I would rather a game drag on for an unnecessarily long time rather than do that to any player. Finally, I do not believe even a forced concession by the hosts was appropriate. In my view, mafia had options (exceptionally low percentage ones) to continue the game. If mafia have any chance, no matter how small, I do not feel it is appropriate for the hosts to step in. Consider the following options for mafia: 1) The game is "over" only if Rayn gets lynched first and all townies perfectly cooperate in thread. Mafia have a chance to push a mislynch on me in the endgame. 2) Mafia have arguments (albeit bad ones) that Trfel is not the JK, or that mafia held the shot. 3) At the time I posted my plan, FF and Trfel had not "agreed" with it. It is not really a game-winning plan unless all townies see it, agree to it, and execute it. 4) One of the townies in the game could very well go AFK, or Trfel could forget to submit a night action. 5) Mafia could argue that the situation is not 2 mafia v. 3 town, but rather, 2 mafia v. 1 third party v. 2 town OR 1/1/3. I can go on and on, but the point is that the game isn't "technically" over, and ending the game has the potential to create a lot of hard post-game feelings if hosts can determine when a game is over, especially if a mafia player feels like they want to explore those low-percentage options. There are definitely some grey lines in there. All and all, I feel that the best policy is that no concessions should be allowed unless the entire mafia team agrees to concede. I believe intelligent people can disagree on this, but that is what I feel about the situation. | ||
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