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[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 24 2020 03:28 GMT
#12
/in
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 28 2020 02:48 GMT
#36
Just remember I am never mafia.

Then town wins easy.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 29 2020 02:59 GMT
#120
Hi guys. I was hoping to get some investing advice.

My last investment didn't go so good...
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 29 2020 02:59 GMT
#121
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 02:24 GMT
#323
My reads so far are mostly feels, so I'll mostly just comment about what left an impression on me.

On April 29 2020 14:44 Vivax wrote:
I don't think there's much merit to Kurumi calling Trfel mafia just for the lazy thing. In my opinion, it's not worth reading too much into, but it was also too early to call Trfel town.

Rayn for one, is already saying 'Vivax will probably call me mafia for it', which implies he thinks I'm town. I'll skip the part of voting him for that because he'll just say 'good job' like last time that happened.

Rayn more or less tried to pull off what I did with Jock two games ago (who was mafia and pushed Trfel aggressively with flimsy reasons), though the circumstances are different. Then he said I should read him mafia for it, which doesn't make much sense considering he should know that I still remember that fact well.

And while I agree that Kurumi should know better than harping on Trfel's NAI posts, it's unfair to say he did that on his own after rayn led him to do that.

Summing it up:
It kind of feels like rayn here is trying to paint Kurumi mafia with the reasons I used on Jock, while trying to make me unable to call him mafia for it because he's emulating what we both did as town in the last games.

So yeah rayn, you are right I will call you mafia for it
And Trfel is mafia too, because right after he realized he should be scumreading you, he went and made a scum case on Kurumi in order to not have to.

##Unvote
##Vote rayn

Vivax's post tickled me when he said that Rayn already knows that he is town and bringing up (I think) a past game where he caught Rayn doing this. I have no idea what he's talking about for the past game with Trfel but I believe that he believes what he's writing.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 30 2020 00:03 Kurumi wrote:
Slam, everyone, please don't spam post, it really doesn't help.

I decided to make a list for summary's sake and that we hopefully don't miss out something later.

No contribution so far:

Grackaroni (posted, but it is literally an introduction post and a youtube-link post)
Fecalfeast (admitted to not reading the thread)
Koshi (no posts at all)
Jockmcplop (no posts at all)
Chezinu (but talking Chezinu and contributing is a whole can of worms)


Low-effort/medium activity


Shockeyy (claims town and wanting to lead it, pings me through quoting Vivax, scumreads Alakaslam, notes that Trfel has played games back-to-back and understands their desire to be lazy)
Alakaslam (notes the cop-outs, pings me, claimed town, seemingly agrees with me, Vivax, torn about Trfel anyway)
GlowingBear (pings Vivax, then votes them without providing more reasoning, interacts with Trfel on basis of past games, although seemingly agrees with me, is interested in how Trfel is going to play)

Funnily enough, if someone were to put a gun to my head right now, I'd say all three are Town. That only means I at this moment lean Town more on them than Scum and it's flimsy enough to flip fast. If I were to pick the strongest town feel out of these three, it would be Slam because I liked him noticing the cop-outs and well, I like that he seems to agree with me

Active

Vivax (pinged me, wanted to interact with people and did, pressured Fecalfeast through a vote on good reasoning after I asked for who I should be looking into, most importantly, came to the exact same conclusions I have right now.)
Kurumi


Trfel
raynpelikoneet


I have no idea with which one of these two I should start. There's an obvious triangle between them and me - with them defending each-other and pushing me, but pushing me so lightly that they don't even commit to a vote. And they do all this for me JUST pinging Trfel. Never called Trfel scum. Never voted Trfel. That's a misrepresentation. But the moment I mention Trfel to rayn, he believes that Trfel has shown "effort" (they did not, as I outlined in a post of mine). After this, rayn declares I should be suspicious of him because of his defense of Trfel - to which I have replied already as well. I was. I know that rayn tunnel-visions a lot, but the play he's shown this game is outright bogus to me. Trfel says one thing and then does the opposite. Which is, by definition, lying. You might have a good guess how I feel about liars. Rayn goes on saying that I'm illogically pushing Trfel for this, as if nothing Trfel would've done would change my attitude towards them. So here's what I can give on this front: if Trfel were truthful to their game-opening declaration, they'd be suspicious to me. BUT they would not be read as scum to me simply because of lack of information. Given how all this turned out, I believe Trfel to be scum. They go as far as literally reiterating rayn's previous point he made to me about how I should be suspicious of rayn and me not being suspicious of rayn is scummy. They also misrepresent me as saying "I'm gonna meta read everyone like crazy" which is wildly untrue. I expressed DOUBTS whether I can do that. Not that I can and will.

And you know what's the best thing ever in Trfel's posting?

Show nested quote +
On April 29 2020 10:40 Trfel wrote:
-snip-

However, I was mostly joking, to see people's reactions. It clearly wouldn't make much sense for me to try and give an excuse at the start of the game when I easily could have done so a few hours before. With the one caveat being that I tend to be a lower page-count player these past few games/years, I try to be more efficient with my posts, and I think it's been working fairly well. I just know some people tend to view that as suspicious.


Amazing backpedal. So your plan from the start of the game was claim to be lazy and then call the first person to call you out scum? Because "mostly joking"? So not only you've lied about "being lazy" this game through your gameplay after I put some heat on you, you also admit it outright? Cool.

So, the only reason I'm voting Trfel over raynpelikoneet really is that I think Trfel has a role. I'd rather have a scum-with-role dead than a vanilla scum dead. Easy? Easy.

##vote Trfel

+ Show Spoiler [unofficial votecount] +


Fecalfeast - 0
Vivax

raynpelikoneet - 1
Vivax

Vivax - 1
GlowingBear



Here I don't see scum trying to explain why they aren't voting for somebody because they think another person might have a role. It doesn't seem like the kind of reasoning that mafia would come up with to justify avoiding voting on a partner.

Rayn worries me. I made a note that I felt Rayn seemed defensive about needing to justify his own read more than having a strong scumread on Kurumi in this post:

On April 29 2020 16:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am also one more time trying to clarify what is the problem i have with Kurumi. First he ask me about his opinion on Trfel. His opinion seems to be based on the following narrative:
- Mafia is scared to post, therefore making excuses to not post

It's simply no way Kurumi is even remotedly interested in Trfel's opening post unless the above is true. When i give my opinion on Trfel's posting (he had posted more in between), he says this:
Show nested quote +
Well, I got all bad vibes from this and wanted another pair of eyes on this. Someone declaring at the start of the game that they're going to be lazy feels like a setup for a future cop-out for why they're not putting the effort in.

This is okay alignment wise i think, i mean i can see it coming from a townie too -- the quote in itself not considering other things. The thing that interests me here is that Trfel is not actually being lazy as he claimed at the start of the game. When i confront this Kurumi says:
Show nested quote +
Oh come on Ray, what kind of reasoning is this? If anything, we should be concerned that someone that has shown less interest in the game changes their behaviour so fast. If that's the whole picture, that is.

Now what? Now we should be interested in Trfel because he ISN'T lazy? Basically throughout the game so far Kurumi has been saying:
- Trfel is mafia because he is lazy and making excuses for not posting
- If that's not true after all he is still mafia because he is actually posting

aka, Trfel is mafia if he is not posting or if he is posting. What gives?


and my feelings of that got stronger with this post:

On April 30 2020 05:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 04:02 Koshi wrote:
My thoughts are that Kurumi showed interest in rayns alignment by asking him question which rayn could or could not correctly answer from Kurumi's POV.

I think Kurumi scumreading rayn after the exchange shows that Kurumi was not impressed by rayn his answers and therefore scumreads him.

Which is a very townie thought and handling process.


I honestly don't agree with this at all, being on the "receiving end" here. I mean that's not how i feel like it went at all. But i am not really interested in Kurumi right now, probably not a D1 lynch anyways.

If Rayn isn't interested in Kurumi that makes me feel stronger about my original interpretation of his post.

It also seemed pretty clear to me that he was trying to win over Koshi while talking to him. Maybe he just has a fairly confident town read on Koshi, or he's got an interest in getting a Jock lynch over GB.

FF I didn't like because he seems like he's putting effort into seeming casual in his posts. Especially in a post where he's spreading suspicion onto Shockey.
On April 30 2020 00:56 Fecalfeast wrote:
Dislike rayns post on kurumi and i like kurumi so far

Shockckckckckeyyyy why is it a koshi mafia entrance and why did it take until jock voted for you to vote


Also if I have the timeframe correct, he posted the night before and then the next morning he forgot about the game and is promising contributions?

On April 29 2020 23:25 Fecalfeast wrote:
Oh jeez guys I'm sorry. I forgot about the game. I work all day but I'll try and be less of a donkey today


That seems strange to me. At most he would have forgotten about the game for only a few hours after waking up, and I don't think he's been doing much since then.

TLDR:

I have weak reads:

Vivax/Kurumi lean town

Rayn/FF lean scum
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 02:32 GMT
#324
Oh Jock also said something about there being two mafia, but I think it's probably 3 with 12 people.

Also, I really hope that I don't come off as offensive, but:

@Koshi: There's a grammar mistake I've noticed you making fairly frequently for a couple of years now. When you say "Rayn his reads" the english translation would just be "Rayn's reads". I don't know if it's a translation mistake just from writing quickly or something I should point out, but it's pretty easy to correct so I thought I might mention it.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 03:06 GMT
#332
On April 30 2020 00:06 Fecalfeast wrote:
Kurumi if you think this is spammy you would have hated it a couple years ago...

Shit more like 5 years ago

Also this was more like 8 years.

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 03:54 GMT
#335
I don't think much is happening tonight.

I'm just going to vote Rayn off gut.

##Vote: Raynpelikoneet
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 16:56 GMT
#484
On April 30 2020 21:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 20:45 Trfel wrote:
On April 30 2020 19:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I have many problems with grackaronis posts.
Care to explain? I don't think I felt the same way :/ Though I can always reread.

It's mostly because he seems to be deciding on some reads and then looking for something to fit those reads. Let's see:

There is way more to be said about Vivax than what Grack writes. Anyways that part isn't my main concern.

On Kurumi:
Show nested quote +
Here I don't see scum trying to explain why they aren't voting for somebody because they think another person might have a role. It doesn't seem like the kind of reasoning that mafia would come up with to justify avoiding voting on a partner.

I can understand people thinking Kurumi is town. There is nothing wrong with that. However grack's reasoning here is that because rayn is mafia Kurumi cannot be mafia because Kurumi wouldn't do what he did in regards of Trfel and rayn. It's like absolutely idiotic to say Kurumi is town for that reason (especially when he later on says his read on me isn't even that strong). I think it's just a made up reason.

Then there is the read on me:
Show nested quote +
Rayn worries me. I made a note that I felt Rayn seemed defensive about needing to justify his own read more than having a strong scumread on Kurumi
[...]
If Rayn isn't interested in Kurumi that makes me feel stronger about my original interpretation of his post.

It also seemed pretty clear to me that he was trying to win over Koshi while talking to him. Maybe he just has a fairly confident town read on Koshi, or he's got an interest in getting a Jock lynch over GB.

Let's see here.. When ever have i had problems making a case on a townie when i am mafia, regardless of who the said person is (note that Grackaroni has already decided that Kurumi is town)? Like, Grack thinks i am mafia because i am afraid of calling Kurumi mafia. Does that sound reasonable knowing me -- to ANYONE? Because it shouldn't.

The second part is also suspicious. Apparently it is suspicious for me that i am trying to win Koshi over? If it's not a thing that makes me suspicious then what is that whole thing doing in Grack's "rayn is mafia" post? Well, the thing here is that let's say this is true and i am mafia trying to win Koshi over. That should automatically translate (or the starting point should be) that Koshi is town. Why would i otherwise try to win Koshi over as mafia? Except that Grackaroni apparently doesn't think Koshi is town because it's not even in his weak town reads with Kurumi and Vivax.


I don't really have a "problem" with the FF read, although i think FF is an easy target to attack here, since he hasn't done that much in comparison to other people. Ironically that's actually a town thing for FF. He is way more focused and "clean" as mafia than he is as town, which was the original reason for me townreading him, that hasn't changed.

Also also.... I feel like GB is just saying stuff for sake of saying stuff. Like in almost all of his posts he declares why noone can ever think Kurumi is mafia and how Kurumi is 100% town but he has no indication of trying to ever figure out anything about the people who disagree with him. Knowing GB i would assume him to be fully shouting at me and Trfel at least. Instead of doing that (i mean like something productive) he is more interested in just backing on his own read.

For Kurumi it's just something that stuck out to me as unusual from his post. Either he is mafia and he felt the need to explain why he's choosing to vote for Trfel and not for you, (my thought would be that he only would feel he has to do this as mafia if you are his teammate) and then he came up with the idea of trfel being a role to justify not voting for you, or he has a strange town thought process. It just seemed convoluted to me to come from a mafia thought process to explain not voting for you.

For you I misread a bit earlier that you already weren't too interested in lynching Kurumi before the first post I quoted. The point wasn't that you are incapable of pushing scumreads as scum. To me it seems like you got in a bit of an argument with Kurumi, a couple of people were sniping on the way you came off in the posts rather than the logic you made, and then when it was already over you came back with the logic of the argument which paints you in a better light, even though you had no interest in using it against Kurumi.

For the Koshi point it was mostly my own bias against you. I was just a bit weary of the way you were interacting with him because he was starting to take control of the thread and you were working hard on influencing him to vote for Jock over GB.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 16:56 GMT
#485
I don't think Koshi has done anything outside of his mafia range though. Looking over his filter again just now I don't like his justification for voting GB.

GB is really aggressive by nature and Koshi knows that, but then he compares GB's reactions to Kurumi/Fefe and calls GB scum because town would react more conservatively. He's expected to make waves and then get called out for making an aggressive read on Jock.
On April 30 2020 03:32 Koshi wrote:
GB is not making any waves. Very slippery.


On April 30 2020 03:48 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 01:42 GlowingBear wrote:
On April 30 2020 01:35 Jockmcplop wrote:
On April 30 2020 01:31 Fecalfeast wrote:
Wait jock says his vote on koshi was jokes?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


Nah I genuinely thought he was mafia after his one post and shockeyy saying that post made him mafia. I was convinced. but alas! Now I have seen the light.

##unvote: koshi


No way.

##Unvote
##Vote: Jockmcplop


You're mafia.

The difference between the conviction in the posts from kurumi/fefe and here gb is why I think the first 2 arz town and gb is mafia.

I also had the wtf how scummy is the jock fella with his vote and backtrack on me. But I also had a healthy amount of doubt and confusion.

I think fefe and kurumi both showed some conservatism in their posts.


GB did not. GB looked like a wolf jumping on a poor misguided sheep.


##Vote GB

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:09 GMT
#494
On April 30 2020 23:02 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 22:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Vivax whats your opinion on Grackaroni?


He mentions Fefe poking Shockeyy lazily for his Koshi vote, which is actually nice from Fefe from where I'm at.

From Fefe:
Show nested quote +
Dislike rayns post on kurumi and i like kurumi so far

Shockckckckckeyyyy why is it a koshi mafia entrance and why did it take until jock voted for you to vote


Though it's kind of strange he jumps to a team of you and FF based on what he is reading in that post, where Fefe is actually disliking your post, so sort of agreeing with Grack?

Feels like he's missing some line of thoughts here he should be having, and a team of you+ff shouldn't make too much sense based on what's in his post, but that's not enough for me to call him mafia for rn.
I'd like to know what he thinks about Shockeyy.

I'm not forming any teams at the moment.

Reading through his filter just now. I kind of like Shockeyy. He called out Koshi's opening as a mafia opening, which was something Koshi conceded to him, so I'll give him points for that.

To be honest I don't feel very strongly about the big post I made the previous night and I would scrap most of it. Trfel/Vivax/Rayn all get some town points based off of their effort.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:13 GMT
#497
On May 01 2020 02:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 01:56 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't think Koshi has done anything outside of his mafia range though

Alright. Since you know Koshi's mafia range so well point me out to a game that's "in range" with this game as per his play on D1?

lol he's played a lot of strong games as mafia. He's definitely capable of firing off a lot of posts as mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:31 GMT
#514
Don't vote Grack.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:31 GMT
#516
I waited too long to start reading and I don't have time to finish through.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:36 GMT
#518
I'm not doing anything else. I have to work soon.

I have 5 minutes I will vote to consolidate somewhere or I'll vote Koshi.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
April 30 2020 17:45 GMT
#521
##unvote
##Vote:Slam


I think I'm probably going to be the lynch tbh. Sorry for bad play.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 01:19 GMT
#763
Slam are you around?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 02:04 GMT
#765
Mr. Slam.

Where were you on the day of April 30th at 12 O'clock PM during the death of Mr KURUMI?

Were you with Chezinu at the Federal Reserve?

Did you lower the interest rates to increase employment in accordance with macroeconomic principles? What say you?????
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 02:06 GMT
#766
On May 01 2020 11:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 02:45 Grackaroni wrote:
##unvote
##Vote:Slam


I think I'm probably going to be the lynch tbh. Sorry for bad play.

Grack what made you post this?

I should have read through the thread and posted more than a page but I waited too long to start. I thought I would probably be the lynch from what I was reading when I came in the thread and for posting little content.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 02:17 GMT
#769
On May 01 2020 11:11 Trfel wrote:
Fecalfeast, do you have any response to my suspicions of you? Specifically, you seem to throw suspicion everywhere, it feels like you are reaching for reasons to scumread everyone. Primarily early Day 1.

There's not much he can say to that. Either he's town and suspicious of a lot of people or he's scum jumping on a lot of scum reads.

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 15:55 GMT
#861
I read through the end of Day 1.

Rayn was super scummy throughout all of day 1. He said my reasoning was made up and seemed convinced I was mafia. He said he caught Jock making a stupid mafia mistake and that he was beating himself up for letting him off the hook in the last game and still made no real attempt to get him lynched.

Instead he joins forces with Koshi. He votes for GB saying that at least 2 townies would be voting for the same person that way. (though he also said something about GB just leaving opinions and not trying to convince people of things)

At the end of the day he leaves the train with 3 votes on GB with Koshi/Vivax/FF, who were all his townreads, to vote for ShoCkkey and then later Kurumi who he said was probably town but was going to throw the game anyway.

Slam/ShoCkeyy are both pretty low posting and seem to only talk about each other, so I'm starting to think they're practicing a different kind of social distancing.

I liked that Slam seemed to have a hard turn against Rayn for his flip but then 5 minutes later he turned into a pancake or something.

Koshi for some reason says that Trfel/FeFe/Slam were all very townie at the EoD, which I don't understand.

I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 16:13 GMT
#867
On May 02 2020 01:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 00:55 Grackaroni wrote:
I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.


Which ones?

Anyone that isn't Vivax or Trfel
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 16:29 GMT
#869
On May 01 2020 20:41 Koshi wrote:
Anyway. If people feel I shouldnt spam please let me know. Dont be a Kurumi. I can also just think these things and not post them.

No I like them.

I did notice Slam turned on Rayn based on his read change at the end of the day.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 16:34 GMT
#870
On May 02 2020 01:17 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 01:13 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 02 2020 01:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
On May 02 2020 00:55 Grackaroni wrote:
I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.


Which ones?

Anyone that isn't Vivax or Trfel


So you could lynch Fefe. GB is saying he's definitely town. What do you think of that?

I think FeFe got a lot of credit by posting his stray comments in the summary post he was writing up, but I think he's clever enough to do that as scum. At the very least at the moment I was probably going to leave a vote on FF but switched to Rayn based off him doing that.

FF actually has one of the highest scum win-rates and is quite good at faking a townie mindset.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 16:36 GMT
#871
I liked your analysis of ShoCkkey's vote count comment.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 01 2020 16:52 GMT
#872
Fwiw even though I think Rayn played an objectively very scummy day yesterday I don't feel a strong conviction that he will flip scum.

I think I was vigged n1 my last game as town in a similar situation so if someone is debating who to shoot right now I hope you choose Chezinu, but obviously I understand if it's me. At the very least I'll keep coming back to read every so often and hopefully I'll feel strongly about something at some point later on.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 01:28 GMT
#890
I think Slam may be town. He seems fairly comfortable posting and is taking some more aggressive stances vs people who weren't under pressure at the time in Trfel/Rayn. Sometimes with Slam I feel like he is posting to blend and I don't see that this game. I also don't think he would yell about his play being insulted while called out as scum.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 01:34 GMT
#892
If ShoCkkey was mafia would someone like Rayn or GB coach him?

I'd probably leave a comment that if he spends most of his time calling out Slam for making inconsistencies people are going to suspect him, especially in the case where Slam is town rather than them distancing from each other.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 01:38 GMT
#893
On May 02 2020 10:31 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 10:28 Grackaroni wrote:
I think Slam may be town. He seems fairly comfortable posting and is taking some more aggressive stances vs people who weren't under pressure at the time in Trfel/Rayn. Sometimes with Slam I feel like he is posting to blend and I don't see that this game. I also don't think he would yell about his play being insulted while called out as scum.

Cause I’m an arrogant SOB but when I’m scum I’m so slick and refined that anyone who knows me can see it right away

I wouldn't count that in future games.

When someone questions you on something it's not helpful to just shout that you wouldn't make a sloppy play as mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 02:09 GMT
#896
I'm rescinding my town read of Trfel. It seems like he mostly just goes for low hanging fruit and goes out of his way to defend so many other players during day1 unnecessarily. He gives me bad feels.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 02:13 GMT
#897
On May 02 2020 07:42 Koshi wrote:
Would Grack go after rayn. Would Slam go after rayn. Would gb go after rayn.

As mafia vs town rayn.

Meh

I don't really care about going after Rayn as mafia. Maybe not advisable to poke Rayn if I'm not willing to put in the effort to play though.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 02:51 GMT
#899
On May 02 2020 11:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 11:09 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm rescinding my town read of Trfel. It seems like he mostly just goes for low hanging fruit and goes out of his way to defend so many other players during day1 unnecessarily. He gives me bad feels.

no

Hi Rayn
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 02:56 GMT
#901
I take it you're town reading Trfel
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 03:00 GMT
#903
On May 02 2020 11:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 11:56 Grackaroni wrote:
I take it you're town reading Trfel

I kinda think that you should be reading your top scumread's posts really care fully and you dont know thta i townread Trfel?

lol ok then. I mostly wanted you to elaborate but if you want to play "GOTCHA" rather than talking to me I'm not going to bother with you.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 02 2020 03:31 GMT
#905
On May 02 2020 12:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I dont know why i should elaborate on that. I think, if youre not mafia, then jock and chezinu kinda have to be mafia. What do you think about that?

Because you just said no.

If I just replied no to one of your posts you would have some questions.

Trfel does go out of his way to defend GB/Jock/me/you and goes after Kurumi for attacking him rather than pushing FF after he said he liked Vivax's read. He mentions 3-4 times that FF is suspicious of too many people and even asks him why he is spreading suspicion on so many people. What was he expecting FF to say to that? Then after FF is killed he throws out ShoCkkey/Slam/Chezinu/me as suspects from the night kill. He gives me bad feels like he's defending the players who might threaten him and pushing the players he thinks he can lynch.

Are you back to GB as mafia then for Jock/Chezinu as the remaining two?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 15:21 GMT
#1114
On May 03 2020 21:54 Vivax wrote:
Dunno, I didn't have a good night of sleep and just want a wagon going that doesn't get derailed because I might crash to bed before.

Typically, that involves the people in the thread finding the scumreads in common, voting them, and if they show up, they try to convince us why someone else is more mafia than them.

Right now it feels more like walking into an argument between a couple.

So, my opinion is that rayn is again turning a blind eye to shockeyy, for some reason. Was like that last game too. Well, Shockeyy was mafia.

Koshi on the other hand is going berserk because Kurumi was mislynched by rayn, presumably.

Is there any read you guys have in common?

Hey these last few pages have been great. :D
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 16:33 GMT
#1120
I'm reading a bunch of ShoCkkey games at the moment. I'm leaning towards him being mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 16:43 GMT
#1121
ShoCkkey's reads have been rigid since the start of the game. He posts about Koshi's opening and when Slam attacks him he says that Slam is tag teaming him on behalf of Koshi.

On April 30 2020 00:18 ShoCkeyy wrote:
So far I have Slam, Koshi, and Kurumi on my possibly mafia list.


He's detached from everything else that happens in the game and he gives an associative read of GB being town based off Koshi/Slam being mafia.

It seems like his same playbook from his last game in the database (I know there are a couple more recent from this year that I'm going to keep looking in to.)

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/534607-chill-hop-mafia?user=ShoCkeyy

In this game at the start of the game Ticktock makes a comment about being unlynchable this game. ShoCkkey says that Ticktock is either mafia or claiming doctor and continues to push Ticktock as mafia from that comment until he gets killed. Calix attacks him and then ShoCkkey ties Calix as a clear partner of Ticktock. After Ticktock flips town Calix gets called mafia for knowing that Ticktock was town.

I'm going to keep reading more games but the mindset he has doesn't seem like a town one to me of taking in new information.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 17:01 GMT
#1126
Reading ShoCkkey's last town game I think there's a world of difference. He's much more subdued and his opinions aren't so strong/rigid based off weak evidence.

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/557789-emergency-quarantine-mafia?user=ShoCkeyy

I think ShoCkkey should definitely be the lynch.

##Vote: ShoCkkey
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 17:32 GMT
#1139
On May 04 2020 02:05 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Bruh Grack why are you reading other games, my style changes every game. Just read this game...

Because a lot of things don't change like how confident a player is able to feel in their reads. A lot of people are having trouble forming strong reads this game and you right off the bad are convinced that Koshi/Slam are both mafia and base all of your future thoughts on that pairing.

That's contrary to your last game where you were much more modest about your opinions. You push HF for his push and go back and forth with him quite a bit but at the end of the day you don't feel confident enough to go through with it. Palmar actually votes you purely to be funny with no reasoning at all and you don't blow it up as him being a clear scum in your vote.
On March 27 2020 08:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Heh zoom is pretty old, it was really catered to businesses, but finally people are starting to realize that not a lot of things require you to be there 24/7...

Either way I’m in agreement with Chez it’s rough to really play a good game from day 1. That’s why I always found debating who’s mafia and who isn’t on the first day any useful. I think day 2 is where it gets interesting.


On March 27 2020 10:50 ShoCkeyy wrote:
The only way I can think Trfel is mafia is because he's sheeping HF to try and throw some shade over to HF. HF while yes tries to commit to some discussion, and is known strong player, I can see why Trfel would try and sheep him. In all honesty its still early, people start really coming out when there's like four hours left...


On March 27 2020 15:03 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2020 12:53 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 12:47 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 11:54 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:38 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:14 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:04 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:34 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:14 Holyflare wrote:
Trfel not voting Kelsier is probably the most suspicious thing in the game. Agrees with my wall of text, piles on with more reasons and doesn't vote. I also agree with Palmar that Shockeyy looks more and more like mafia. At least his reaction to Palmar saying something looked pretty bad and not in line with what I'd expect from him.

I think the reasoning that there's mafia between Trfel/Palmar/HF from Shockeyy doesn't make the slightest bit of sense. He's saying that two people agree with the case but also that I might be mafia. There aren't three mafia, it was pointed out to him and instead of re-evaluating his stance he doubled down on this false line of narrative.


I never said there was three mafia? I know there's only two this game, I read the first post nah mean? I'm just saying that there's a possibility from those three people there's mafia.


Ok, why exactly do you think I am/was mafia to begin with? Please just explain it in 3 short bullet points or sentences.


1. You claim you made a case vs Sentinel, but it was barely a case, then instantly swap to KelsierSC for saying your case blows and him voting for you?

2. You're telling people how mafia should be played yet most of us here have played together already for quite some time.

3. I've played with you on the mafia team before, and that post screams end of game posting style from our game together.


1. He voted for me after I made the case on him?? I also didn't only vote him for saying my case blows?? That's literally none of what I write about in my actual case on Kelsier??????

2. Yet people still don't understand it.

3. Fine.


Point 1 is based on memory, but I recall him saying your case on Sentinel blows, then you went off on Kelsier with your case, then voted for him.


But what part of my case relies on the premise that I am attacking Kelsier for saying my Sentinel case blows?


Ok here we gooooo.....

On March 26 2020 12:49 Holyflare wrote:
If you are town, Sentinel, you should be voting for Kelsier because he would be confirmed mafia.


You literally claimed Kelsier would be confirmed mafia here, Kelsier last posts during this time were about him going to work, and about your other case against Sentinel blowing. You didn't really have reasoning here to think he was mafia just yet. His beginning posts which were much literally read as town to me.

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/557789-emergency-quarantine-mafia?page=11

On this page you decided to jump back to Sentinel

On March 26 2020 13:38 Holyflare wrote:
It is not about what I think. It's about what you think. You think it's strong or you do not, you jump on it or do not. That does not bother me. I put my thoughts in the thread for people to see and call out things that should be called out. You are effectively defending Sentinel playing atrociously and even going so far as self-voting when called out to do what? Vote me and say you don't like the way I'm playing right now?

There are three fundamental questions that you need to answer now, Rels:

Do you agree or disagree with the premise that Sentinel has played sub-optimally, flown under the radar and was just not funny?

When I applied pressure to Sentinel and voted him and he self-voted, did he perpetuate the case on him even further or react helpfully?

When Sentinel reacted poorly to pressure did I look worse or better?


We actually care what you think, if you're actually town, we should care about what you think. Then directly after this post, you make that huge "case" against Kelsier which literally had almost his only posts. You were flip floppy here between either or trying to get a wagon going. Kelsier seemed like an easier lynch at this point because two players also joined, so let's completely forget about your first push.


I don't know what point you're trying to raise to be honest. Do you think that when I created the case on Kelsier those points magically jumped out to me while I was making it or do you think I already had a pre-determined set of points that I wanted to raise in the thread?

Trfel asked me about that first quote here:

On March 26 2020 15:39 Holyflare wrote:
On March 26 2020 15:10 Trfel wrote:
Holyflare's points on KelsierSC make sense to me. I also don't understand why KelsierSC thinks LightningStrike is town after repeatedly saying all of his reads are bad. Feels really arbitrary.

However I also don't understand why Holyflare calls out [UoN]Sentinel specifically for not scumreading KelsierSC when he later says that [UoN]Sentinel's alignment doesn't affect his case on KelsierSC? I'm very confused by this.


It's not too difficult to understand. I still think the points on Sentinel are apt, he's done nothing but flounder in the thread. What does that make his alignment? Pretty undertermined at this point in truth, unfortunately.

Psychologically, and rather egotistically, players are more drawn to seeing their name typed in the thread and reacting to those posts. If you just acknowledge the basic tenets of a mafia player (as I outlined) and extrapolate that all townies should be looking out for that behaviour specifically (because really, that's how you find mafia in every game) then Sentinel should have acknowledged Kelsier's stances on himself.

If Sentinel is town, then he should see Kelsier say that the lynch on him is bad but then totally 180 on himself and meekly support it as the best lynch. That is a bad look for Kelsier, if Sentinel is town, because he is lynch bait and Kelsier is jumping on him.

Why specifically did I call out Sentinel for it? Mostly for the above, a bit for reaction fishing from other people and also a tad in hopes Kelsier would react (although I think he might of gone to sleep at this point).

On March 26 2020 12:57 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On March 26 2020 12:49 Holyflare wrote:
If you are town, Sentinel, you should be voting for Kelsier because he would be confirmed mafia.

For saying the wagon on me is bleh? I think it's too early in the game for that to be a scum read


Sentinel doesn't really understand why I said it so that leaves me with either:

Sentinel is not critically thinking about the game in any way, shape or form as a townie.

OR

Sentinel is mafia and doesn't subconsciously put together the things that naturally come to a townie.

I'm hesitant to say it's the latter but we'll see. Kelsier is a great vote at least.


I had already determined that Kelsier was mafia and wanted to test the waters with Sentinel some more to see if they were either mafia together or if there was a chance Sentinel could be town. It was entirely inconclusive but that's neither here nor there.

I also didn't "jump back to Sentinel", I was questioning (and answering at some point) Rels' questions. You can see how I'm trying to reach a conclusion on RELS (not Sentinel) because I am asking Rels questions in relation to the events. So, no, I didn't become undecided between the two, since none of these questions relate to MY read on Sentinel in the slightest, rather Rels' read progression on me and Sentinel.


The point I was trying to make is that you instantly came with a list of his posts, gave your opinion why you think he’s mafia only after being pressured to give reasons, but it’s literally KC first few posts. Essentially what you’re criticizing him for is what you’re doing to him. Giving opinions. But hey you determined he was mafia at some point with only about 10 posts.


On March 28 2020 02:38 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I'm going to vote Palmar just cause he's barely done anything while just constantly trying to push me for whatever reasons. While my HF scum radar is alive and well, HF at least has been active, and every game I play we tend to always vote out the most active player who flips town, such as GB.


I think your play this game seems very similar to the scum game I quoted earlier, where you choose two people to be scum at the start of the game and tunnel throughout, rather than the way you approached the game in your town game, but we'll have to see.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:23 GMT
#1162
On May 04 2020 03:16 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2020 03:11 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 04 2020 03:04 Trfel wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:53 Trfel wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:42 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 03 2020 23:17 Trfel wrote:
No, I don't want to lynch Koshi. Of the three people currently at two votes I would most want to lynch Jockmcplop I think. I should probably read his filter again.

And ShoCkeyy's too, for that matter. But I don't really want to vote with GlowingBear But maybe I should accept the possibility that I am wrong.

Bleh, confusing game hurts my head


Trfel, consider I'm confirmed town. Is there any reason to not vote Shockey?
I don't know I've periodically been falling asleep while reading Jockmcplop's filter and ShoCkeyy's filter and keeping up with the thread (primarily Grackaroni's posts).

When I look at ShoCkeyy's play this game vs his play last game (as mafia), I've actually felt like they are different. This game I see ShoCkeyy coming up with new ideas and sticking with them, and that makes me think he may be town. I didn't read his meta the same way Grackaroni did, I think we are looking at different aspects of ShoCkeyy's play. I don't know what that means.


You're considering meta only. What about my argument on Shockey?
Which one in particular? Sorry, you'll have to point me to what you are referring to. For the record the middle line of that paragraph wasn't meta but it doesn't really matter.

@Koshi, sorry I may very well change my vote. I will probably agonize about it until the deadline. Even though K am busy between now and then.


Alright. Assuming you're town:

I was up to be mislynched day1. Kurumi died. I could very well be the lynch today. All mafia needed to do was to keep throwing suspicions at me.
EoN1. FF is dead. Shockey sees it and throw a bit of suspicions at me by saying I am either mafia or mafia tried to frame me by killing FF. This surely makes people WIFOM about my alignment. In other words, could be mafia tried to guarantee my mislynch day2.
When pressured, Shockey is a bit confused in what to answer. I keep pressuring him and he says that he believes I'm town and that I was framed because FF was killed. But he can't really explain how FF being killed could imply I could be mafia.
But if he really believes in this, he would expect that anyone pushing me today is mafia. Because, if this is not the case, why would the mafia team try to frame me? For nothing?
You suspected me. So you're probably the mafia he is looking for. But when pressured to say you alignment, he said you are NULL.
This shows how faulty this logic is and that Shockey can't find good reasons for what he is been posting. Which means he is probably fabricating posts to fit his agenda. His intention in the beginning of day2 was to try to have a mislynch on me, but it didn't work.
I don't really want to put words in ShoCkeyy's mouth, but it's understandable to me that mafia could use a night kill to try and implicate someone and wait for town to lead that wagon. I've seen it happen before (or even not happen if town didn't go that way). Honestly if mafia tries to use the night kill to implicate someone, I think that's the smart way to do it. You don't risk yourself if town doesn't bite.

I think the night kill says that mafia don't feel intimated by Rayn/Koshi. I'd expect one of them to be scum tbh, but if GB is mafia with neither of them then he made a really ballsy choice to leave them both in. If they both put in their town play Rayn/Koshi could come together and give GB hell for a second cycle in a row.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:24 GMT
#1163
intimidated
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:32 GMT
#1170
I'll give this another look really quick.

+ Show Spoiler +

I know some people are saying Jock is re-evaluating the game after the FF flip but i don't really see it. I honestly first thouhg Jock is town because why would he kill FF, his scumread (unless GB is mafia too -- but right now i don't expect that to be true). Just look at Jock's re-evaluation:
- First he says he needs to re-evaluate things because FF his scumread died
- He never evaluates GB, which is the first thing he should do
- The he says he need to reread Shockeyy because "a lot of alignments depend on Shockeyys" (i dont even understand why he thinks that because he never explains anything about it)
- But he doesn't really reread Shockeyy on any level, he just comes back with some random posts and says that Shockeyy is town because ??? and Koshi and Shockeyy are opposing alignments and because of a BAD post Shockeyy made on Koshi that could make him think Shockeyy actually could be mafia but without no investigation on that ever in the game he just ends up on Shockeyy being town again and Koshi being mafia.
- Basically he never re-evaluated anything and just ended up with whatever he had before the night kill. That's literally ALL his posts during D2 so basically he hasn't done anything lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:32 GMT
#1172
^
From Rayn.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:54 GMT
#1192
On May 04 2020 03:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2020 03:20 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 04 2020 03:16 Trfel wrote:
On May 04 2020 03:11 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 04 2020 03:04 Trfel wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:53 Trfel wrote:
On May 04 2020 02:42 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 03 2020 23:17 Trfel wrote:
No, I don't want to lynch Koshi. Of the three people currently at two votes I would most want to lynch Jockmcplop I think. I should probably read his filter again.

And ShoCkeyy's too, for that matter. But I don't really want to vote with GlowingBear But maybe I should accept the possibility that I am wrong.

Bleh, confusing game hurts my head


Trfel, consider I'm confirmed town. Is there any reason to not vote Shockey?
I don't know I've periodically been falling asleep while reading Jockmcplop's filter and ShoCkeyy's filter and keeping up with the thread (primarily Grackaroni's posts).

When I look at ShoCkeyy's play this game vs his play last game (as mafia), I've actually felt like they are different. This game I see ShoCkeyy coming up with new ideas and sticking with them, and that makes me think he may be town. I didn't read his meta the same way Grackaroni did, I think we are looking at different aspects of ShoCkeyy's play. I don't know what that means.


You're considering meta only. What about my argument on Shockey?
Which one in particular? Sorry, you'll have to point me to what you are referring to. For the record the middle line of that paragraph wasn't meta but it doesn't really matter.

@Koshi, sorry I may very well change my vote. I will probably agonize about it until the deadline. Even though K am busy between now and then.


Alright. Assuming you're town:

I was up to be mislynched day1. Kurumi died. I could very well be the lynch today. All mafia needed to do was to keep throwing suspicions at me.
EoN1. FF is dead. Shockey sees it and throw a bit of suspicions at me by saying I am either mafia or mafia tried to frame me by killing FF. This surely makes people WIFOM about my alignment. In other words, could be mafia tried to guarantee my mislynch day2.
When pressured, Shockey is a bit confused in what to answer. I keep pressuring him and he says that he believes I'm town and that I was framed because FF was killed. But he can't really explain how FF being killed could imply I could be mafia.
But if he really believes in this, he would expect that anyone pushing me today is mafia. Because, if this is not the case, why would the mafia team try to frame me? For nothing?
You suspected me. So you're probably the mafia he is looking for. But when pressured to say you alignment, he said you are NULL.
This shows how faulty this logic is and that Shockey can't find good reasons for what he is been posting. Which means he is probably fabricating posts to fit his agenda. His intention in the beginning of day2 was to try to have a mislynch on me, but it didn't work.
I don't really want to put words in ShoCkeyy's mouth, but it's understandable to me that mafia could use a night kill to try and implicate someone and wait for town to lead that wagon. I've seen it happen before (or even not happen if town didn't go that way). Honestly if mafia tries to use the night kill to implicate someone, I think that's the smart way to do it. You don't risk yourself if town doesn't bite.


Alright, but if he believes mafia tried to implicate me, it has a purpose, right? The purpose is to try to mislynch me.
So, mafia will try to push a lynch on me. And you were the only one who did this today, right? This means Shockey needs to believe you are mafia and you're trying to mislynch me. But he said you were NULL.

It doesn't fit his perspective. Therefore, he is mafia.

I think this is the strongest point for Shockeyy being mafia.
I still don't think it's as likely as Slam being mafia and there is simply no mafia team where Jock doesn't belong to so basically i am just gonna hope you guys are right then.

He was definitely lackluster. He just decided ShoCkkey and Koshi are opposite alignments, looks over people's reasons for voting ShoCkkey and says that there was no real reason to scum read ShoCkkey so he stays as a townread, and he writes a post saying that GB could have lynched him if he was scum. I agree he didn't seem to put in much.
On May 03 2020 00:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
So the people who voted shockeyy are slam, trfel and rayn.

Rayn voted him because he didn't like shockeyy trying to lynch koshi, but rayn also backed down pretty quickly and went for people he was more strongly scumreading (some town points to rayn for this by the way).

Slam's reason seems to be about a beef with shockeyy and the way shockeyy has called him mafia alot. I'm using a particular post slam made to me about it for reference as to slam's reasoning.

Trfel seems like rayn, kind of not really bothered about lynching shockeyy:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 02:50 Trfel wrote:
##unvote
##vote ShoCkeyy


Underwhelming filter. I like Vivax's (?) point about ShoCkeyy saying he voted Koshi only for a pressure vote, but also saying that Koshi's opening was a mafia opening. He's yet to give any other reasons to suspect Koshi. And more importantly, he's just saying recently "I like GlowingBear more than Koshi" while voting for Alakaslam, while GlowingBear is leading the lynch and Koshi or Alakaslam aren't really in contention.

Not sold on it but maybe it'll work?

Possibly just seeing what would happen with the wagon if he voted there. His point about saying he voted koshi for a pressure vote and also saying koshi's opening was mafia is the only thing i agree looks bad here. I disagree with drawing conclusions from how shockeyy was voting slam while GB was up for lynch. I don't think that looks bad on shockeyy and he never showed interest in particularly trying to save GB, but was voting for a scumread.

I still think shockeyy is town here. I just can't see any case for him being mafia except his early thing with the read on koshi, and that's nowhere near enough to scumread him when his reads have been consistent, and consistent with his voting also.



Are you mostly scumreading him from lack of effort and PoE or is there something I misunderstand that makes him very scummy to you.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:55 GMT
#1193
On May 04 2020 03:51 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2020 10:06 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
REMEMBER TO VOTE

Well fuck I am sorry but can we get a more recent count? I have no clue what is going on because yesterday I was having mad mutual masturbation all day and all night because she’s worried about sex during pregnancy sonce she hasnt seen a doctor ywt and learned wisdom

We don't have to hear about this Slam. lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:56 GMT
#1196
On May 04 2020 03:49 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2020 03:47 ShoCkeyy wrote:
It does, you just chose to ignore that it makes sense.


I'll repeat what I've said, then.

You think mafia tried to frame me by killing FF. Which means mafia agenda = mislynching GB. In other words, this is an argument they will use against me at some point.
The only person who scumreads me is Trfel. It fits your perspective as scummy. He should be insta-scum in your perspective.
I ask you: what's Trfel alignment?
You say: null

How do you explain this?

That could really easily just be a throwaway comment. I can speculate about night kills and then mostly ignore it.

Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 03 2020 18:59 GMT
#1201
Sorry Shockey
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 04 2020 20:21 GMT
#1274
On May 05 2020 04:41 Alakaslam wrote:
I just thought of something I want to say.

Why the hell have people been scumreading based on changing minds?

If you are gonna scumread someone for changing their mind. Then you should also believe that day1 lynches usually hit scum. Because, town MUST change their mind on occasion as new information comes up, and town often WILL change their mind even with no new info as they look at the same shit with a new lens.

Scum are more likely to have a consistent plan and stick to it (which doesn't mean their reads will be consistent!) so tbat is the thing to watch for.

Why were you so confident ShoCkkey would be town at the end of the day? That was a large part of why I thought he would be scum.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 04 2020 20:54 GMT
#1281
On May 05 2020 05:50 Alakaslam wrote:
I mean fuck it. If it is against my wincon to play the fucking game then I’ll just go silent and vote so that more townies dont get ahat on because I am smart enough to see they are town

I'm not shitting on you. I was just trying to understand your thought process. I didn't read the pages the previous night so that's my bad that Rayn was asking you that already.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 02:52 GMT
#1299
On May 05 2020 11:06 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2020 19:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
On May 03 2020 06:56 Trfel wrote:
On May 03 2020 06:41 Vivax wrote:
On May 03 2020 06:19 Trfel wrote:
On May 03 2020 05:41 Vivax wrote:
On May 03 2020 05:37 Trfel wrote:
I take it people were very underwhelmed by my post on GlowingBear


Hard to think of something I'm not underwhelmed from.
Which people btw.

##Vote rayn
Just no one commented on it. Maybe I need to rewrite it.

Voting raynpelikoneet if he doesn't play makes sense? Except for a lot of people aren't playing currently


Yeah I'm sorry if I don't pay too much attention to your case right now. I'm also kinda triggered that today to me feels like a circlejerk between you and me.

But if vets I'm used to like Koshi and rayn basically put 1% of the effort they did on D1, coupled with the FF kill, then odds are at least one of them is mafia. And I'm putting my money on rayn, also because of his voting shenanigans yesterday.
Hm, that makes sense, fair enough. I'll keep my vote on GlowingBear for now (I'm most confident he is mafia) but I guess I could vote for raynpelikoneet if things keep going this way.

Also, sorry Jockmcplop, realized I forgot to respond to you. I am sorry for being incorrect. For some reason I'm having trouble finding the posts in your filter. I take it the reason you ask is because you're scumreading Koshi too, so the same logic that it looks suspicious for GlowingBear should look suspicious for you too. That makes sense but I don't think it really applies to this case, since this is more of an emotional point. GlowingBear should be much more emotionally invested in his scumread of Koshi if he is town, and I would expect that to come out much more in his play.


OK. Thanks for responding. I don't like this argument, at least I can't go along with it, because someone's emotional investment in the game is something you get to know about each individual player and I don't really know GB at all. If I was sure you were town I would be more likely to take your word for it, but I'm not.

As for the other parts of your case:
1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying.


Point 1 does get my interest. Do you have quotes to back this up?
2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads.


Point 2 is actually the reason i was townreading GB to start with. I think he would have taken the opportunity to get a mislynch on me rather than just townreading me because I didn't vote. He's reacting to what is happening in the thread. I take it you think these reactions are not genuine looking. Is that because of bad reasoning or just a feeling you get?



I'm diving jock's filter.

Here's the thing: why would jock defend me if he is scum here? He is in the chopping block day1 and instead of jumping on a wrong case, he decided it was better to talk about it point by point, debunking it. I don't see mafia!jock doing that.

we're at 5-3 at this point and you/Jock both write each other off as possible mafia just for choosing not to lynch each other. I kind of doubt you would both do that as a team, but I think 1 of you two has to be mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 03:10 GMT
#1303
On May 05 2020 12:06 Alakaslam wrote:
Or frankly town is playing like shit but it is easier for me to say mafia is playing really well since I still have some dignity.

It's hard to say town is playing like shit without including in yourself or having the game solved.

It seems like the mafia team played well. I'm mostly just hoping it's Jock lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 04:02 GMT
#1315
On May 05 2020 13:00 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2020 12:52 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 05 2020 12:44 Trfel wrote:
On May 05 2020 12:42 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 05 2020 12:37 Trfel wrote:
On May 05 2020 12:36 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 05 2020 12:29 Trfel wrote:
Grackaroni, what are your thoughts on Jockmcplop right now?

What are your thoughts on me?


Trfel, what do you think of Chez?
Blue.


Because...?
I guess I just kinda assumed since he's been hinting at it and raynpelikoneet believed it. Plus, no one else has claimed blue yet and this would have been the time to do it (given that it's MYLO). I'd be very, very, very surprised if there was only one blue in a 12 player game.


So did Slam?
Also, Chez didn't claim.

@Chez, are you a blue role?
I thought Chezinu's was a joke?

I'm horrid about people hinting at roles and subtleties and things. I guess I'll take another look at it, but raynpelikoneet obviously saw something, so I think that's a valid point.

Chez has been role playing as the federal reserve/doctor.

I agree if someone else is blue they should claim.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 04:24 GMT
#1319
On May 05 2020 12:29 Trfel wrote:
Grackaroni, what are your thoughts on Jockmcplop right now?

What are your thoughts on me?

I think Rayn is right Jockmcplop has been underwhelming and the possible mafia are getting narrowed down.

I still think you could be mafia but Rayn/you both seem to be acting like your play this game is outside of your mafia range and I don't think I would go against that.

I'd guess Koshi as well since he isn't obvious town. He's usually the cockiest player and during the night he was blaming me for misleading him as a beacon of smartness. Most of the time Koshi/Rayn should have died ahead of FF.

I'd never lynch Vivax.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 05:02 GMT
#1323
What are you going to study?

My life is fucked too lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 05:04 GMT
#1325
On May 05 2020 14:03 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2020 14:02 Grackaroni wrote:
What are you going to study?

My life is fucked too lol.
I majored in Mechanical Engineering before, I'm planning on going back for Computer Science. The prerequisites overlap, so it'll only be another two and a half years or so...

How so?


Oh nice. I majored in math and have no experience for anything. I'm stuck tutoring at least until Covid passes. I think I may try to get into Computer Science too.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 05:09 GMT
#1327
On May 05 2020 14:06 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2020 14:04 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:03 Trfel wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:02 Grackaroni wrote:
What are you going to study?

My life is fucked too lol.
I majored in Mechanical Engineering before, I'm planning on going back for Computer Science. The prerequisites overlap, so it'll only be another two and a half years or so...

How so?


Oh nice. I majored in math and have no experience for anything. I'm stuck tutoring at least until Covid passes. I think I may try to get into Computer Science too.
Ah, yeah How does tutoring work during the coronavirus time? I imagine it would be a lot harder to find new people to tutor...

And that'd be cool! It ought to be a good career for getting employed and staying employed

Actually busier than before. There's a lot of people looking to fill in missing school time.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 05 2020 05:15 GMT
#1332
On May 05 2020 14:13 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2020 14:09 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:06 Trfel wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:04 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:03 Trfel wrote:
On May 05 2020 14:02 Grackaroni wrote:
What are you going to study?

My life is fucked too lol.
I majored in Mechanical Engineering before, I'm planning on going back for Computer Science. The prerequisites overlap, so it'll only be another two and a half years or so...

How so?


Oh nice. I majored in math and have no experience for anything. I'm stuck tutoring at least until Covid passes. I think I may try to get into Computer Science too.
Ah, yeah How does tutoring work during the coronavirus time? I imagine it would be a lot harder to find new people to tutor...

And that'd be cool! It ought to be a good career for getting employed and staying employed

Actually busier than before. There's a lot of people looking to fill in missing school time.
Huh, surprised, that's pretty cool though! I assume that's a good thing for you? Haha

Yeah for the moment but there's no long-term prospects there.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 04:29 GMT
#1534
On May 06 2020 02:54 Alakaslam wrote:
People really exploded with my obvious nighttime fakeclaim of cop. Now they want me to be mason. Can we really not fit a tongue in any of our cheeks, or am I just a chipmunk?

Wait didn't you claim cop at the end of day 1.

That's pretty suspicious lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 04:53 GMT
#1539
I think GB comes off as quite townie for day 3. I like that he's keeping things interesting and I don't think his reasoning for calling out Vivax is bad. It kind of feels like mafia are just waiting out the final day.

If we aren't voting Jock I'd vote Koshi over Vivax though. Slam also claimed cop at the end of day 1 when he had 2 votes and was being hard pushed by Rayn the night before Rayn died.

This would be my new list atm.

Trfel

GB
Vivax

Chezinu?

Jock
Slam
Koshi
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 04:54 GMT
#1540
I can vote Jock for now but I'd be open to a switch in the morning.

b]##Vote: Jockmcplop[/b]
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 04:54 GMT
#1541
##Vote: Jockmcplop
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 04:59 GMT
#1543
On May 06 2020 13:58 Chezinu wrote:
##Vote: Jockmcplop

Then we slam Koshi!

If we lose, we blame rayn

Always a solid plan.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 05:13 GMT
#1558
On May 06 2020 14:07 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:53 Grackaroni wrote:
I think GB comes off as quite townie for day 3. I like that he's keeping things interesting and I don't think his reasoning for calling out Vivax is bad. It kind of feels like mafia are just waiting out the final day.

If we aren't voting Jock I'd vote Koshi over Vivax though. Slam also claimed cop at the end of day 1 when he had 2 votes and was being hard pushed by Rayn the night before Rayn died.

This would be my new list atm.

Trfel

GB
Vivax

Chezinu?

Jock
Slam
Koshi


Wait Chezinu isn't confirmed town to you?

I probably should bank on 2 blues for a setup that's short one townie and move up Chez.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 15:47 GMT
#1648
On May 06 2020 17:05 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 17:00 Vivax wrote:
The way I see it you're telling me my two top town are my teammates and that doesn't fly to well, that goes without saying.

I also don't think you'd believe rayn to have been wrong about everything before getting shot.

At the very least you should have a mild suspicion of Slam, or some slamdunk (no pun intended) argument for him being town.


I already made my argument for slam being scum. I went and looked at every single scum game in his filter. It took me absolutely ages tbh, but I didn't make a big quote wall or anything so it probably got ignored. He just doesn't take things personally in his scum games and doesn't get stressed out like he is here by people scumreading him. Look at what he's saying and think the opposite. When he says he doesn't care what people think its a dead giveaway that he does. But as mafia his posting is the opposite, its chill and fun, exciteable even.
Go look at his previous mafia games. You should be able to see the difference.

I'll look over some Slam games.

Vivax/Trfel have been the most invested/contributive players for most of this game so if they're scum they outplayed town pretty hard.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 15:55 GMT
#1649
lol I don't think there's even a vote count for day 1. There should be useful information there but it's going to take a little digging.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 15:59 GMT
#1650
On May 06 2020 22:04 Koshi wrote:
Grack went from Vivax 100% town never lynch to
GB the madman made a great point on Vivax, GB tiptoptown, Vivax fell off.

So let's vote with my earlier scumread Tfrel, with my fallen angel Vivax, and Koshi who I think is mafia on Jock.

lol all I did was move Vivax down a notch and move GB up a notch. Our reads on Trfel/Vivax are largely the same.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 16:01 GMT
#1651
Oh I'm dumb I filtered Sentinel/KSC instead of Hapahauli.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 16:20 GMT
#1656
On May 07 2020 01:18 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2020 00:47 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 06 2020 17:05 Jockmcplop wrote:
On May 06 2020 17:00 Vivax wrote:
The way I see it you're telling me my two top town are my teammates and that doesn't fly to well, that goes without saying.

I also don't think you'd believe rayn to have been wrong about everything before getting shot.

At the very least you should have a mild suspicion of Slam, or some slamdunk (no pun intended) argument for him being town.


I already made my argument for slam being scum. I went and looked at every single scum game in his filter. It took me absolutely ages tbh, but I didn't make a big quote wall or anything so it probably got ignored. He just doesn't take things personally in his scum games and doesn't get stressed out like he is here by people scumreading him. Look at what he's saying and think the opposite. When he says he doesn't care what people think its a dead giveaway that he does. But as mafia his posting is the opposite, its chill and fun, exciteable even.
Go look at his previous mafia games. You should be able to see the difference.

I'll look over some Slam games.

Vivax/Trfel have been the most invested/contributive players for most of this game so if they're scum they outplayed town pretty hard.

Your point? We should take the loss. And with we I mean town because you maf

Well obvs we're taking the loss!! Town needs to lynch 3 right in a row.

Maybe we can get one though.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 16:23 GMT
#1657
I don't know what you're on about though. I said I liked GB's posts this cycle, you did too. Now you're like

I GOT HIM HAHAHAHAHAHAH
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 16:31 GMT
#1658
I'd say the day1 votecount makes GB more likely to be town. I think Kurumi likely got voted off by three town votes and at least one of Koshi/Vivax/Alakaslam will be mafia.

On May 01 2020 04:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Day 1 - 5-MINUTES-TILL-DEADLINE COUNT

Previous Votecount: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/558949-oil-futures-mafia?page=33#656


Votes:

Kurumi: (3) Trfel, Raynpelikoneet, FecalFeast
GlowingBear: (3) Koshi, Vivax, Alakaslam
Alakaslam: (2) ShocCkeyy, Grackaroni
Jockmcplop: (1) GlowingBear
Trfel: (1) Kurumi
Koshi: (1) Chezinu
Raynpelikoneet: (0)
FecalFeast: (0)
Vivax: (0)
Chezinu: (0)
Grackaroni: (0)
ShoCkeyy: (0)


Not Voting:
Jockmcplop


Kurumi is set to be lynched with 3 votes.

until End of Day


Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 16:38 GMT
#1661
On May 07 2020 01:35 Vivax wrote:
Still don't know what Slam is doing.
I know that it feels like almost everyone has Chez as possible mafia but no one is voting for him. That usually means something.

But we can keep that in mind for tomorrow if the game doesn't end. Wagon feels good to me and there's enough dudes going sort of ape with Jock on the table.

Grack, you bored greenchecked mafia, what do you make of Chez after today?Still null?

gameplay says scum and theory crafting says there should be two blues and nobody else but Chez could be a blue.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 17:03 GMT
#1668
I can dip in but I wont be watching too closely
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 17:10 GMT
#1673
Well played.

##Unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 17:14 GMT
#1676
On May 07 2020 02:10 Koshi wrote:
I let smart people decide who needs to be replaced with Grack. That guy is mafia.

It's definitely coming down to me at the end and I'm going to put in as much effort as I am now, so I'm kinda hoping Trfel just played a godlike mafia game lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 17:36 GMT
#1679
On May 07 2020 02:34 Trfel wrote:
Can't help but notice that my proposed mafia team are the three people who haven't posted yet

Better decide what to do!

Your team is also the same as Rayn's team from last night.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 18:50 GMT
#1759
I don't know why you'd kill Trfel. He was in a great spot up until his claim. I havent had time to read but I think thats way off.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 18:54 GMT
#1762
basically the whole mafia team stacked on trfel lol.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 19:19 GMT
#1783
Shouldn't the game be over?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 06 2020 19:25 GMT
#1792
On May 07 2020 04:22 Koshi wrote:
Ah no. Chez is red? W.e I dont care.

Chez was confirmed town by Trfel
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 07 2020 00:09 GMT
#1809
Is now the time when I pretend that I was secretly a vigilante?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 08 2020 22:39 GMT
#1909
On May 09 2020 05:34 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2020 17:12 Koshi wrote:
I am back in mafia depression.

Even if you voted correctly. We would have lost. Only one wrong town vote was needed to lose. That's why I waited to vote at end. Slam still votes Trfel. All mafia just needed to stack, which Vivax was waiting.

DIdn't you end up no-voting though?

:D

You're right I don't think anyone had the game solved. After the ShoCkkey lynch it was going to be really hard to get 3 lynches right in a row. Trfel was close to carrying us through it with his check on GB and his connection between GB/Jock but it wasn't enough.

In hindsight I recognize some weird posts from GB trying overly hard to connect Koshi as a buddy of Jockmcplop.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 08 2020 22:40 GMT
#1910
Vivax played one of his stronger scum games for sure. I think he played solid.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
May 19 2020 02:41 GMT
#1926
On May 12 2020 04:05 Hapahauli wrote:
Workin on it. I'm not going to Blazinghand this. I swears.

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