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[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 15:55 GMT
#861
I read through the end of Day 1.

Rayn was super scummy throughout all of day 1. He said my reasoning was made up and seemed convinced I was mafia. He said he caught Jock making a stupid mafia mistake and that he was beating himself up for letting him off the hook in the last game and still made no real attempt to get him lynched.

Instead he joins forces with Koshi. He votes for GB saying that at least 2 townies would be voting for the same person that way. (though he also said something about GB just leaving opinions and not trying to convince people of things)

At the end of the day he leaves the train with 3 votes on GB with Koshi/Vivax/FF, who were all his townreads, to vote for ShoCkkey and then later Kurumi who he said was probably town but was going to throw the game anyway.

Slam/ShoCkeyy are both pretty low posting and seem to only talk about each other, so I'm starting to think they're practicing a different kind of social distancing.

I liked that Slam seemed to have a hard turn against Rayn for his flip but then 5 minutes later he turned into a pancake or something.

Koshi for some reason says that Trfel/FeFe/Slam were all very townie at the EoD, which I don't understand.

I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 16:13 GMT
#867
On May 02 2020 01:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 00:55 Grackaroni wrote:
I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.


Which ones?

Anyone that isn't Vivax or Trfel
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 16:29 GMT
#869
On May 01 2020 20:41 Koshi wrote:
Anyway. If people feel I shouldnt spam please let me know. Dont be a Kurumi. I can also just think these things and not post them.

No I like them.

I did notice Slam turned on Rayn based on his read change at the end of the day.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 16:34 GMT
#870
On May 02 2020 01:17 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 01:13 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 02 2020 01:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
On May 02 2020 00:55 Grackaroni wrote:
I could really vote a whole bunch of people though tbh.


Which ones?

Anyone that isn't Vivax or Trfel


So you could lynch Fefe. GB is saying he's definitely town. What do you think of that?

I think FeFe got a lot of credit by posting his stray comments in the summary post he was writing up, but I think he's clever enough to do that as scum. At the very least at the moment I was probably going to leave a vote on FF but switched to Rayn based off him doing that.

FF actually has one of the highest scum win-rates and is quite good at faking a townie mindset.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 16:36 GMT
#871
I liked your analysis of ShoCkkey's vote count comment.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 01 2020 16:52 GMT
#872
Fwiw even though I think Rayn played an objectively very scummy day yesterday I don't feel a strong conviction that he will flip scum.

I think I was vigged n1 my last game as town in a similar situation so if someone is debating who to shoot right now I hope you choose Chezinu, but obviously I understand if it's me. At the very least I'll keep coming back to read every so often and hopefully I'll feel strongly about something at some point later on.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 01:28 GMT
#890
I think Slam may be town. He seems fairly comfortable posting and is taking some more aggressive stances vs people who weren't under pressure at the time in Trfel/Rayn. Sometimes with Slam I feel like he is posting to blend and I don't see that this game. I also don't think he would yell about his play being insulted while called out as scum.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 01:34 GMT
#892
If ShoCkkey was mafia would someone like Rayn or GB coach him?

I'd probably leave a comment that if he spends most of his time calling out Slam for making inconsistencies people are going to suspect him, especially in the case where Slam is town rather than them distancing from each other.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 01:38 GMT
#893
On May 02 2020 10:31 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 10:28 Grackaroni wrote:
I think Slam may be town. He seems fairly comfortable posting and is taking some more aggressive stances vs people who weren't under pressure at the time in Trfel/Rayn. Sometimes with Slam I feel like he is posting to blend and I don't see that this game. I also don't think he would yell about his play being insulted while called out as scum.

Cause I’m an arrogant SOB but when I’m scum I’m so slick and refined that anyone who knows me can see it right away

I wouldn't count that in future games.

When someone questions you on something it's not helpful to just shout that you wouldn't make a sloppy play as mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 02:09 GMT
#896
I'm rescinding my town read of Trfel. It seems like he mostly just goes for low hanging fruit and goes out of his way to defend so many other players during day1 unnecessarily. He gives me bad feels.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 02:13 GMT
#897
On May 02 2020 07:42 Koshi wrote:
Would Grack go after rayn. Would Slam go after rayn. Would gb go after rayn.

As mafia vs town rayn.

Meh

I don't really care about going after Rayn as mafia. Maybe not advisable to poke Rayn if I'm not willing to put in the effort to play though.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 02:51 GMT
#899
On May 02 2020 11:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 11:09 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm rescinding my town read of Trfel. It seems like he mostly just goes for low hanging fruit and goes out of his way to defend so many other players during day1 unnecessarily. He gives me bad feels.

no

Hi Rayn
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 02:56 GMT
#901
I take it you're town reading Trfel
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 03:00 GMT
#903
On May 02 2020 11:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2020 11:56 Grackaroni wrote:
I take it you're town reading Trfel

I kinda think that you should be reading your top scumread's posts really care fully and you dont know thta i townread Trfel?

lol ok then. I mostly wanted you to elaborate but if you want to play "GOTCHA" rather than talking to me I'm not going to bother with you.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 02 2020 03:31 GMT
#905
On May 02 2020 12:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I dont know why i should elaborate on that. I think, if youre not mafia, then jock and chezinu kinda have to be mafia. What do you think about that?

Because you just said no.

If I just replied no to one of your posts you would have some questions.

Trfel does go out of his way to defend GB/Jock/me/you and goes after Kurumi for attacking him rather than pushing FF after he said he liked Vivax's read. He mentions 3-4 times that FF is suspicious of too many people and even asks him why he is spreading suspicion on so many people. What was he expecting FF to say to that? Then after FF is killed he throws out ShoCkkey/Slam/Chezinu/me as suspects from the night kill. He gives me bad feels like he's defending the players who might threaten him and pushing the players he thinks he can lynch.

Are you back to GB as mafia then for Jock/Chezinu as the remaining two?
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 03 2020 15:21 GMT
#1114
On May 03 2020 21:54 Vivax wrote:
Dunno, I didn't have a good night of sleep and just want a wagon going that doesn't get derailed because I might crash to bed before.

Typically, that involves the people in the thread finding the scumreads in common, voting them, and if they show up, they try to convince us why someone else is more mafia than them.

Right now it feels more like walking into an argument between a couple.

So, my opinion is that rayn is again turning a blind eye to shockeyy, for some reason. Was like that last game too. Well, Shockeyy was mafia.

Koshi on the other hand is going berserk because Kurumi was mislynched by rayn, presumably.

Is there any read you guys have in common?

Hey these last few pages have been great. :D
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 03 2020 16:33 GMT
#1120
I'm reading a bunch of ShoCkkey games at the moment. I'm leaning towards him being mafia.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 03 2020 16:43 GMT
#1121
ShoCkkey's reads have been rigid since the start of the game. He posts about Koshi's opening and when Slam attacks him he says that Slam is tag teaming him on behalf of Koshi.

On April 30 2020 00:18 ShoCkeyy wrote:
So far I have Slam, Koshi, and Kurumi on my possibly mafia list.


He's detached from everything else that happens in the game and he gives an associative read of GB being town based off Koshi/Slam being mafia.

It seems like his same playbook from his last game in the database (I know there are a couple more recent from this year that I'm going to keep looking in to.)

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/534607-chill-hop-mafia?user=ShoCkeyy

In this game at the start of the game Ticktock makes a comment about being unlynchable this game. ShoCkkey says that Ticktock is either mafia or claiming doctor and continues to push Ticktock as mafia from that comment until he gets killed. Calix attacks him and then ShoCkkey ties Calix as a clear partner of Ticktock. After Ticktock flips town Calix gets called mafia for knowing that Ticktock was town.

I'm going to keep reading more games but the mindset he has doesn't seem like a town one to me of taking in new information.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 03 2020 17:01 GMT
#1126
Reading ShoCkkey's last town game I think there's a world of difference. He's much more subdued and his opinions aren't so strong/rigid based off weak evidence.

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/557789-emergency-quarantine-mafia?user=ShoCkeyy

I think ShoCkkey should definitely be the lynch.

##Vote: ShoCkkey
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 03 2020 17:32 GMT
#1139
On May 04 2020 02:05 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Bruh Grack why are you reading other games, my style changes every game. Just read this game...

Because a lot of things don't change like how confident a player is able to feel in their reads. A lot of people are having trouble forming strong reads this game and you right off the bad are convinced that Koshi/Slam are both mafia and base all of your future thoughts on that pairing.

That's contrary to your last game where you were much more modest about your opinions. You push HF for his push and go back and forth with him quite a bit but at the end of the day you don't feel confident enough to go through with it. Palmar actually votes you purely to be funny with no reasoning at all and you don't blow it up as him being a clear scum in your vote.
On March 27 2020 08:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Heh zoom is pretty old, it was really catered to businesses, but finally people are starting to realize that not a lot of things require you to be there 24/7...

Either way I’m in agreement with Chez it’s rough to really play a good game from day 1. That’s why I always found debating who’s mafia and who isn’t on the first day any useful. I think day 2 is where it gets interesting.


On March 27 2020 10:50 ShoCkeyy wrote:
The only way I can think Trfel is mafia is because he's sheeping HF to try and throw some shade over to HF. HF while yes tries to commit to some discussion, and is known strong player, I can see why Trfel would try and sheep him. In all honesty its still early, people start really coming out when there's like four hours left...


On March 27 2020 15:03 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2020 12:53 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 12:47 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 11:54 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:38 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:14 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 10:04 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:34 Holyflare wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:32 ShoCkeyy wrote:
On March 27 2020 09:14 Holyflare wrote:
Trfel not voting Kelsier is probably the most suspicious thing in the game. Agrees with my wall of text, piles on with more reasons and doesn't vote. I also agree with Palmar that Shockeyy looks more and more like mafia. At least his reaction to Palmar saying something looked pretty bad and not in line with what I'd expect from him.

I think the reasoning that there's mafia between Trfel/Palmar/HF from Shockeyy doesn't make the slightest bit of sense. He's saying that two people agree with the case but also that I might be mafia. There aren't three mafia, it was pointed out to him and instead of re-evaluating his stance he doubled down on this false line of narrative.


I never said there was three mafia? I know there's only two this game, I read the first post nah mean? I'm just saying that there's a possibility from those three people there's mafia.


Ok, why exactly do you think I am/was mafia to begin with? Please just explain it in 3 short bullet points or sentences.


1. You claim you made a case vs Sentinel, but it was barely a case, then instantly swap to KelsierSC for saying your case blows and him voting for you?

2. You're telling people how mafia should be played yet most of us here have played together already for quite some time.

3. I've played with you on the mafia team before, and that post screams end of game posting style from our game together.


1. He voted for me after I made the case on him?? I also didn't only vote him for saying my case blows?? That's literally none of what I write about in my actual case on Kelsier??????

2. Yet people still don't understand it.

3. Fine.


Point 1 is based on memory, but I recall him saying your case on Sentinel blows, then you went off on Kelsier with your case, then voted for him.


But what part of my case relies on the premise that I am attacking Kelsier for saying my Sentinel case blows?


Ok here we gooooo.....

On March 26 2020 12:49 Holyflare wrote:
If you are town, Sentinel, you should be voting for Kelsier because he would be confirmed mafia.


You literally claimed Kelsier would be confirmed mafia here, Kelsier last posts during this time were about him going to work, and about your other case against Sentinel blowing. You didn't really have reasoning here to think he was mafia just yet. His beginning posts which were much literally read as town to me.

https://tl.net/forum/mafia/557789-emergency-quarantine-mafia?page=11

On this page you decided to jump back to Sentinel

On March 26 2020 13:38 Holyflare wrote:
It is not about what I think. It's about what you think. You think it's strong or you do not, you jump on it or do not. That does not bother me. I put my thoughts in the thread for people to see and call out things that should be called out. You are effectively defending Sentinel playing atrociously and even going so far as self-voting when called out to do what? Vote me and say you don't like the way I'm playing right now?

There are three fundamental questions that you need to answer now, Rels:

Do you agree or disagree with the premise that Sentinel has played sub-optimally, flown under the radar and was just not funny?

When I applied pressure to Sentinel and voted him and he self-voted, did he perpetuate the case on him even further or react helpfully?

When Sentinel reacted poorly to pressure did I look worse or better?


We actually care what you think, if you're actually town, we should care about what you think. Then directly after this post, you make that huge "case" against Kelsier which literally had almost his only posts. You were flip floppy here between either or trying to get a wagon going. Kelsier seemed like an easier lynch at this point because two players also joined, so let's completely forget about your first push.


I don't know what point you're trying to raise to be honest. Do you think that when I created the case on Kelsier those points magically jumped out to me while I was making it or do you think I already had a pre-determined set of points that I wanted to raise in the thread?

Trfel asked me about that first quote here:

On March 26 2020 15:39 Holyflare wrote:
On March 26 2020 15:10 Trfel wrote:
Holyflare's points on KelsierSC make sense to me. I also don't understand why KelsierSC thinks LightningStrike is town after repeatedly saying all of his reads are bad. Feels really arbitrary.

However I also don't understand why Holyflare calls out [UoN]Sentinel specifically for not scumreading KelsierSC when he later says that [UoN]Sentinel's alignment doesn't affect his case on KelsierSC? I'm very confused by this.


It's not too difficult to understand. I still think the points on Sentinel are apt, he's done nothing but flounder in the thread. What does that make his alignment? Pretty undertermined at this point in truth, unfortunately.

Psychologically, and rather egotistically, players are more drawn to seeing their name typed in the thread and reacting to those posts. If you just acknowledge the basic tenets of a mafia player (as I outlined) and extrapolate that all townies should be looking out for that behaviour specifically (because really, that's how you find mafia in every game) then Sentinel should have acknowledged Kelsier's stances on himself.

If Sentinel is town, then he should see Kelsier say that the lynch on him is bad but then totally 180 on himself and meekly support it as the best lynch. That is a bad look for Kelsier, if Sentinel is town, because he is lynch bait and Kelsier is jumping on him.

Why specifically did I call out Sentinel for it? Mostly for the above, a bit for reaction fishing from other people and also a tad in hopes Kelsier would react (although I think he might of gone to sleep at this point).

On March 26 2020 12:57 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On March 26 2020 12:49 Holyflare wrote:
If you are town, Sentinel, you should be voting for Kelsier because he would be confirmed mafia.

For saying the wagon on me is bleh? I think it's too early in the game for that to be a scum read


Sentinel doesn't really understand why I said it so that leaves me with either:

Sentinel is not critically thinking about the game in any way, shape or form as a townie.

OR

Sentinel is mafia and doesn't subconsciously put together the things that naturally come to a townie.

I'm hesitant to say it's the latter but we'll see. Kelsier is a great vote at least.


I had already determined that Kelsier was mafia and wanted to test the waters with Sentinel some more to see if they were either mafia together or if there was a chance Sentinel could be town. It was entirely inconclusive but that's neither here nor there.

I also didn't "jump back to Sentinel", I was questioning (and answering at some point) Rels' questions. You can see how I'm trying to reach a conclusion on RELS (not Sentinel) because I am asking Rels questions in relation to the events. So, no, I didn't become undecided between the two, since none of these questions relate to MY read on Sentinel in the slightest, rather Rels' read progression on me and Sentinel.


The point I was trying to make is that you instantly came with a list of his posts, gave your opinion why you think he’s mafia only after being pressured to give reasons, but it’s literally KC first few posts. Essentially what you’re criticizing him for is what you’re doing to him. Giving opinions. But hey you determined he was mafia at some point with only about 10 posts.


On March 28 2020 02:38 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I'm going to vote Palmar just cause he's barely done anything while just constantly trying to push me for whatever reasons. While my HF scum radar is alive and well, HF at least has been active, and every game I play we tend to always vote out the most active player who flips town, such as GB.


I think your play this game seems very similar to the scum game I quoted earlier, where you choose two people to be scum at the start of the game and tunnel throughout, rather than the way you approached the game in your town game, but we'll have to see.
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