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On April 14 2018 17:17 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:08 currentlyhomeless wrote:
oh the scumlogic only applies cause rayn apparnetly has a gun in this made up scenario
this was already proven to be impossible like 10 pages ago so this is just a waste of space & distraction What is this nonsense about proven to be impossible. ES filter doesn't tell us anything. In one post she talks about having given her gun to rayn and in another she talks about rayn being conf town cause she didn't manage to give her gun to him cause she took what he said at face value. Nowhere does it say she has some kind of inventory with a gun in it. Nobody has any damn clue about what actually happened that night except you it seems. Unless you wanna argue that hopeless was shot by that gun which is at best a decent guess cause I don't know why mafia would shoot hopeless here.
my boy tube gets it which makes him confirmed town
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Bah Tubesock is full tinfoil mode and homeless is mafia.
It's not too bad actually, if rayn and Oats are sane we should still have the lynch.
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On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf
wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both
50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different”
who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers
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On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers
I don't think even kush can get this high.
First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red.
9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster.
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I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH.
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On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster.
holy shit you did fail math
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
there are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12??
why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total
anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for.
assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25%
if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them
so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time
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On April 14 2018 18:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH.
you realize that the probability that one of them is scum and the probability that the check was true are two different things right
i have no idea what this 60% number youre talking about even means cause your math makes no sense.
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On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time
You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second.
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On April 14 2018 18:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH. you realize that the probability that one of them is scum and the probability that the check was true are two different things right i have no idea what this 60% number youre talking about even means cause your math makes no sense.
60% is the credibility of the redcheck in worstcase scenario with a miller and framer.
Exo had 1 red and 1 green. Green being fake is irrelevant cuz he'd be mafia too and we means we lynch him.
red check happens only 5 times, 3 mafia and 2 alignment changing mechanics. 3/5 is the times red check is legit.
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Like i have no idea what you're thinking with "50% chance one of them is miller".
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On April 14 2018 18:12 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second.
holy fuckballs
we are talking about millers, a miller is a fucking role
if there is a miller, when someone flips NONMILLER the chance of everyone else being a miller goes up. not fucking rocket science. this is why the number of people alive mayters
if you have 4 townies and 1 miller, if you checked a townie n1 it was a 20% chance they were a miller
after 3 of the townies die and flip VT the chance is now 50% you checked a miller because 3 fucking VTs flipped. and obviously if the miller flips the chance is 0. the chance doesn’t magically stay 20% because that’s how many players were alive when you checked
jesus
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not gonna repeat what everyone else said ##vote calix
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On April 14 2018 18:15 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH. you realize that the probability that one of them is scum and the probability that the check was true are two different things right i have no idea what this 60% number youre talking about even means cause your math makes no sense. 60% is the credibility of the redcheck in worstcase scenario with a miller and framer. Exo had 1 red and 1 green. Green being fake is irrelevant cuz he'd be mafia too and we means we lynch him. red check happens only 5 times, 3 mafia and 2 alignment changing mechanics. 3/5 is the times red check is legit.
you don’t assign probabilities to framer cause the framer action is not a fucking role
mafia dont roll dice when they frame people
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On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster.
I DIDNT KNOW YOU HAD IT IN YOU. Actually had to laugh at this.
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On April 14 2018 18:18 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:12 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second. holy fuckballs we are talking about millers, a miller is a fucking role if there is a miller, when someone flips NONMILLER the chance of everyone else being a miller goes up. not fucking rocket science. this is why the number of people alive mayters if you have 4 townies and 1 miller, if you checked a townie n1 it was a 20% chance they were a miller after 3 of the townies die and flip VT the chance is now 50% you checked a miller because 3 fucking VTs flipped. and obviously if the miller flips the chance is 0. the chance doesn’t magically stay 20% because that’s how many players were alive when you checked jesus
yeah i fucked up sry
still 1/4 tho?
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But whatever we lost anyway.
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On April 14 2018 18:23 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:18 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:12 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second. holy fuckballs we are talking about millers, a miller is a fucking role if there is a miller, when someone flips NONMILLER the chance of everyone else being a miller goes up. not fucking rocket science. this is why the number of people alive mayters if you have 4 townies and 1 miller, if you checked a townie n1 it was a 20% chance they were a miller after 3 of the townies die and flip VT the chance is now 50% you checked a miller because 3 fucking VTs flipped. and obviously if the miller flips the chance is 0. the chance doesn’t magically stay 20% because that’s how many players were alive when you checked jesus yeah i fucked up sry still 1/4 tho?
math tutoring time
you have 4 players
1 of them has your brains. and maybe your wallet too cause you dont have the brains to remember where it is
if you pick two players from the 4 at random and cavity search them. how likely is it you find your brains and get your wallet back
answer: 50%
+ Show Spoiler +
ABCD
A has your brains
options are
AB
AC
AD
BC
BD
CD
any pair with A in it gives you you brains back
3/6 = .5
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On April 14 2018 18:24 Skynx wrote:
But whatever we lost anyway.
That depends really. On whether rayn is town or not this game. Cause I could see it coming from a mile away that mafia Oats wouldn't vote HF and while I initially thought it was HF + rayn I'm now thinking it could be HF + CH, yes I know HF "tried" to lynch him (this is where Tubesocks logic was funny that HF always gets the lynch he wants).
So basically whoever is town between CH and rayn has the hammer. But then there's still a day after.
Oh and regarding the math all your calculations are bollocks if you don't multiply by the chance there's a miller and/or a GF which are respectively the same in regards to math cause just cuz there's a cop doesn't mean there has to be a miller and a GF. And there can be both or only one of them additionally to a framer which makes your statistics completely pointless so
tl;dr: Don't try to math this.
And currentlyhopeless also forgot to unvote before voting me. If he isn't kush he sure is full of it.
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As I previously mentioned this is why parity cop blows before he gets three checks off and the earliest point where he could have started being useful is at LYLO. But good luck going through all the ifs and buts vs GF/Millers/framers/ponies
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EPT
