EPTI have things to talk to each of you about so I hope you're all going to be present for a bit.
Lemme get coffee and then we'll chat. Feel free to leave stuff for me and I'll get back to you at some point.
[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 2
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cakepie
985 Posts
I have things to talk to each of you about so I hope you're all going to be present for a bit. Lemme get coffee and then we'll chat. Feel free to leave stuff for me and I'll get back to you at some point. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote: Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote: I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup.I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 10:49 Tumblewood wrote: re: your scumread on me ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. and the Koshi thing: in a world where TW says something that would totally make sense from a townie who mistyped, one man sets out to explain how it was an intentional, subversive scum move. Weakass swatting at easy tinfoil bits without addressing the crux of the matter. You're not mafia trying to mislead me. You might be mafia trying to mislead NU. "Mislead" isn't limited to steering town toward or away from any particular plan. Your "plan" post is you starting to try to get into NU's good books, which escalates into full blown buddying. Are you really town just trying to figure the game out? I think you're scum trying to make yourself look better. You swat at the tinfoil by countering you simply mistyped and we shouldn't read into you separating Koshi from NU and yourself. So you claim you're not painting yourself green with his blood. But I don't see you refuting the baseless buddying on the basis of "activity", which is overhyped noise in your case. At least NU asked some good questions during the night. You didn't address how you suddenly go from "D1 mylo" to optimism for D3. Townies are allowed to be wrong, I don't think but townies are allowed to be negligent. So let's suppose your planpost was an honest mistake. When I posit that your plan relies on a weak premise, you don't even check. You snark back at me confidently with incorrect math. If you're town, tell me what kind of flawed town?math you used to get 25 and 42. And why do you divide 25/42? I could speculate but I’d rather hear you explain it. If you made an honest mistake, show us how you erred and maybe we'd buy it. Oh, and you choose the most tinfoil bit of my case to OMGUS me. Heee, that tickles. -- On December 08 2016 12:19 Tumblewood wrote: also funny th\t 1der's list of who to lynch is the reverse of mine, perfectly (except no lynch is still at the top ofc) Nice OMGUS. -- On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote: this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. Does this make him town for you? What is your read on ExO? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 10:05 NeverUnlucky wrote: Back from school!  First off, I think that TW's post was just him voicing what he thought was the optimal scenario for town. As you pointed out, his post was not a troll/joke post, he was legitimately putting forth his plan. I do not see anything malicious in it despite him neglecting the possibility of a blue role dying. My response to his post + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan. Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. I asked if TW was still around to see if I could have a - non math-related - chat with him, which I ended up having with him the following day. I don't really get what you mean here. I looked up the definition of insidious, and the two possible meanings of it were: seductive and having a gradual and cumulative effect. When I reread his filter with these two ideas in my mind, I could not understand what made you think that way (other than the posts for which I suspected he was buddying me): -Seductive: None of his N0 posts make me think that he's trying to please or look good -- + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you I quoted some of his posts, but honestly other than the potential buddying posts, all of his filter enters that category. -Having a gradual and cumulative effect : actually, I understand where you're coming from with "Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging", and I agree with that statement. #72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are him associating giving a shit and/or being active with town and seeing as he self-categorised himself as giving a shit, it does look like he is trying to sell that he is town. This is especially concerning because he does not try to get others engaged in the thread. He only calls them out for it. Okay, so My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) is basically "my plan is much better!" with massive smiley glee. Thanks. I do understand you have the doc claim as N1 sac to flip and confirm doc, in your world where no VT fakeclaims.As for the second part, close, but you miss my point. Sorry for the confusing language. #72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are ... Thing is, we already agree about #72 onwards. My question, amended for clarity, is: do you think that in light of #72+ his earlier behavior also starts looking like part of the pattern of buddying? In other words: Could he be trying to establish a bond with you as far back as #44/45, eventually leading up to #72+? Did scum!bleweed take advantage of the opportunity you presented to earn easy towncred by talking setup and scenarios? -- On December 08 2016 10:56 NeverUnlucky wrote: My point was that he backed down on Koshi acting town when I questioned him. He went from Koshi, him, me are respected and acting town to Koshi is town for the respect kill thing once I asked him to explain how all of us were acting town. That’s the suspicious part about his read progression. Okay, I see now that we won't be able to resolve this due to two possible interpretations of ambiguous wording: NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected' and aren't acting townie either Due to the negation ("the other players aren't"), by formal logic rules, I interpreted this to mean that members of (TW,NU,Koshi) are 'respected' or 'acting townie' (or both). Hence, TW's later correction is merely clarifying that Koshi is 'respected' while you two are 'acting townie'. You interpreted it to mean that members of (TW,NU,Koshi) are 'acting townie' and therefore you think that his later post is a strange reversal. I can see why you'd interpret this way. I don't agree, but I don't see it being productive for us to spend time talking over this minor thing. (Also if you balk at math, I'm not even going bother trying formal logic with you.) -- To follow up on your last one, TW said that me, Koshi, and him were the « respected town ». I find it quite suspect that one of the Three Musketeers was killed while he is trying to be chummy to the other. My point exactly.-- Fair enough. What is your overall evaluation of Ray though? This reads like a lean-town’ish read. Is that what it is? Yes. He is doing original scumhunting in his own way. That's a lot more than what some people have been up to. -- I’m sorry, but these two questions will have to wait for another time (perhaps later tonight if I’m productive). I spent more time than I thought I would just commenting and answering posts on page 6 and still have like 6 flagged posts I’d like to discuss, and I need to get some RL stuff done for tomorrow. Fair enough, if you're really pressed for time then put aside TW and #112 analysis for the time being and do just one thing for me tonight: Dive ExO -- it's just one page atm. -- What is your timezone for future reference? Physically located GMT+8, but that's meaningless -- my sleep cycles are all out of whack. Past couple days it's been more like GMT+3 or +4. I just got up at something like GMT+6 to catch you guys. Not sure where next. Either I stay up all night to keep talking to you guys leading up to the deadline (6am here) or I wake up at 5am just to catch up frantically with one hour to go while underperforming due to grogginess. Playing mafia from the wrong side of the planet sucks. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Seals. Where are the seals. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 18:35 ExO_ wrote: What was the purpose of this post. At first it didn't bother me but the more I think about it, the more it makes no sense. Why say this without explaining it? Do you have any reasoning for town tunneling me, then cancelling it for some reason? Without explanation I can't see a town motivation for posting this This guy, not even read, doesn't even know where and why I town tunneled him. Have you been IAW playing that other game again instead of playing the mafia game you signed up for? I'm drafting something on TW. Will get back to you. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 15:29 Tumblewood wrote: cakepie could be town but if so he's town that's really pissing me off. I'm here to find scum and lynch scum, not to coddle you. You could answer my question about your math and try to show me why you're just a townie who made an honest mistake. Nope. You could actually elaborate on your comment about ExO that I flagged for your attention. Nope. You could give proper reads on ExO, that I asked for, or on anyone else for that matter. Nope. Instead you wail about me jumping at shadows, without offering any alternative targets. You complain about me being an asshat. Dude I've barely even started. You casually fling suspicion widely "between cakepie, 1der and ray because none of them have made me lean town at any point." with no clear explanation. Not even a scumread on any of your three listed options? All I see here as justification is the mere fact that you don't have a townread on any of us, whereas presumably NU is still in your "gives a shit" bucket while ExO "feels very candid" -- both for poorly fleshed out reasons. All you have is a couple of weak townreads? really? mylo does mean we have to be careful not to mislynch. But mylo is not an excuse for being overly cautious to the point that you can't even come up with a single substantiated suspicion. In fact, mylo makes it all the more urgent for us to work hard. This isn't D1 in some 13 player game where you have the luxury of time and mislynches. Coming back to giving shits. Funny thing is, I do give a shit and for all the suspicion I throw your way, I did leave you a couple of outs. I gave you options, I gave you time, for you to try to prove your towniness but you simply won't take any of them. I don't see you giving a shit about demonstrating your towniness. I don't see you giving a shit about doing anything actually useful. #143 On December 08 2016 11:20 Tumblewood wrote: Right, and what have you done about it?also now there are posts to talk about instead of just setup and an empty void. Jack shit. What a hypocrite. You don't actually seem to give a shit; time to remove you from your own town circle. ##Vote Tumblewood | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 08 2016 18:52 ExO_ wrote: I'm asking you to explain why you stopped town tunneling me. Just announcing it serves no purpose for town. It doesn't help us in any way. What town motivation do you have for just announcing it without explaining Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out. Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters. --- On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier. It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole You do you. I'm pretty much done with TW for now unless we get some earth-shattering revelation. Lynch him today failing which continue lynching him tomorrow. You "largely agree with [my] reasoning", so what part do you not agree with? Besides the bit about the gamble. --- Anyhow, we don't have time to muck about. Can't afford to wait for one scum to flip before looking for others. Should be obvious that I'm looking at you next ExO; still in the midst of diving your filter atm. Gotta take a break for dinner and brief relax but when I get back, watch out! | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
I'm not right because I wrote a WoT. It's because you've been useless and + Show Spoiler + I don't or want to or have the time to give some highly explained reasons doing the math I multiplied five-sevenths by five-sixths, because I forgot that scum won't kill themselves. There's other things you forgot or got wrong, but this at least settles for me where 25 and 42 came from and establishes for me never to listen to you regarding probabilities because you're terrible at it. On December 09 2016 00:32 Tumblewood wrote: and if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid Partially correct reaction. You're pleading for town?cakepie to stop being stupid and worried that one fool plus two scum will make 4. I can't find that one fool, though. But you know what, I'll upgrade you to correct on account of panic and such. Now that I have your attention, try being a bit more useful and I'll reevaluate you on your contribution. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote: speaking of Koshi, cakepie's performance in this game really reminds me of Koshi in R1H mafia.tunneled on me all game with a bad but extensively written case and refused to back down, and also won. Koshi was mafia that game btw You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
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On December 09 2016 01:13 cakepie wrote: nvm all error accounted for. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 01:27 Tumblewood wrote: fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous. Right, I'm suppose to give you a fair chance here so maybe "disingenuous" isn't the word I'm looking for. But yeah #166 still doesn't earn you any points. #170 is a start. I've tried to engage Ray without much luck though. He didn't take me up on "NU+TW are not both scum". Not sure how much better you'd fare. On December 09 2016 01:39 Tumblewood wrote: I have figured out (probably) both the scum out of three people wow, do tell. (Sorry bud, it ain't me) | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 01:40 Tumblewood wrote: how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) You don't "convince people [you're] right". Town finds each other by finding things they agree on because they see something the same way, because they're coming from the same perspective. It's called consensus. For example, I don't fully agree on your ExO TR but I can agree with you that as we approach EoD1 Ray is starting to look strange and entering scum territory for being very one-track-minded on scumming two players together all of D1. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 09 2016 02:12 NeverUnlucky wrote: cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 seeing as he blatantly sheeped my read I'm not unaware of this. I said #170 "is a start" as contrast to #166 which is a non-starter for me. i.e. that's the type of direction he should go in. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
tl;dr: Despite him being clearly present, I don't find him exactly forthcoming with information, nor trying to communicate ideas clearly. Drops tidbits in maybe stream of consciousness but doesn't elaborate well. He eventually answers some questions but misses others. Lacks progression wrt his position on TW. #98~#100 could be stream of consciousness, just little snippets. #98 had my attention, but I had such a hard time getting him to clarify more on it. I ask him in #102 - to consider that posting from town would not be carelessly optimistic - to elaborate why he doesn't think TW was buddying NU I don't think he ever answered. #107 seems really contrived to me:
It really lacks coherence, feels like low investment/interest in places. Top it off off with a carelessly wrong read that he immediately abdicates responsibility for. Then there's the whole "misread 5 as 50" because other games grow huge, at less than halfway through a 7-player nightstart with lowish activity N0. And "oops I didn't know we could no-lynch" in an IML game. Both also reek of low investment and attention. It took #115 and #127 before I got #129 in response. He focuses on Ray's #106 to explain his disagreement with Ray's logic. All other questions fall by the wayside. And then again in #161 he "largely agrees" with my TW case and doesn't state what part(s) he disagrees with. The only other time he talked about TW case was the #107 read he had to bin because it was wrong -- a read that was at best hesitant and at worst he was not taking responsibility for. There's zero progression / information for how he got there. Asking him questions keeps feeling like chasing at shadows for some reason, it's like I see him around, engage him, oh he's gone -- and this happens multiple occasions at different times -- this is probably nothing but it just rubs me the wrong way. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
The 'cute' (?) thing about H1 is that bit asking permission to sheep. When I deny permission, 124/126 pretty precisely hit upon topics I want people's opinions on, and things I might have missed. There's some level of "I agree with you on these things" coupled with "here's things you want or that might help you". That seems attentive if nothing else. This though: On December 09 2016 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm <-> this close to just putting a vote on you to see if scum mylo victory, but I wont. didn't follow through on it, but I don't like the talk of spite vote? | ||
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cakepie
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cakepie
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On December 09 2016 03:18 NeverUnlucky wrote: On the flip side, you had to ask him for his opinion on me/exo/ray for him to provide it which reinforces my point of him being lazy or even reactive rather than proactive. I'll grant "reactive rather than proactive". Maybe lazy to write redundant reads. Certainly not lazy with reading thread and being on top of the state of the game. On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time. I see the markedly different effort level too, but I could ascribe it to impending nolynch. | ||
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