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GG Moosy
I'm not mafia though - I haven't been liking Oats for quite a bit and I agree with the Sulfurus comments you said. Unless someone comes with some crazy post, Sounds like a good start. Ruxx looks SLIGHTLY better but...
Do you have any questions for me bud I could shine some clarification on?
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And I apologize a bit for not putting all my thoughts the first couple of days - I asked to replace into this game when I thought the other one was already over - and we pulled off a scum lynch and it continued for another two days. and we had a decent chance to pull it out of triple LYLO.
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On June 18 2015 06:59 Trfel wrote:Wheeee!!! Keep in mind the Day 2 voting analysis I posted here. Analysis of Sulfurus' Filter+ Show Spoiler +Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town
Says that he would lynch Damdred
Voted for batsnacks
Rels town
Would lynch Trfel
Vote on Oatsmaster
(final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading). Day 1 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Vote Countbatsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Rels, Trfel Sulfurus (4): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow Not Voting: MoosyDoosy, Damdred, scott31337 This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1. His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch. On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote:
He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town. He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started. Vote CountSulfurus (5): Kickstart, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy Rels (3):: Trfel, Damdred, geriptbatsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Sulfurusgeript (2): Rels, Oatsmaster The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each. The reason: On June 14 2015 05:13 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:56 Trfel wrote:Rels' Read Progression- Suspicious of ruXxar early
- Suspicious of MoosyDoosy's first post
- Early suspicions of n00bKing (across multiple posts, vague wording)
- Scumreads Fake)Plants for opening post
- Changes read on ruXxar to town
- Unexplained town reads on WaveofShadow, Kickstart, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Trfel, sort of town lean ish? on Sulfurus, scum leans on MoosyDoosy, geript, and batsnacks
- Says that scott31337 isn't scummy
- Jumps on my suspicion on MoosyDoosy
- List post
- Unvotes batsnacks
- Wants to vote geript, might vote Damdred, could also vote Sulfurus
- Jumps on geript's suspicion of scott31337
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this)
Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript)
Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy
Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post) It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts. The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling. I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man! What has he said about Rels before this? On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels (rest of list post omitted) On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this: On June 14 2015 04:11 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote:I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus. I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript. Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe. On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. people should be talking about this. He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts. On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me. Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. Did you look at this post at all? He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card. It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often. Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy. I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous: On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote:I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered. On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push. ##Vote: Kickstarter(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game) This post is pretty bad. and On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote:@geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him? I'd rather lynch you. Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking. On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote:
Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange. This give me a townlean on kickstart. I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus. Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me? It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy. Day 2 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus. On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote:
If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead
Sulf isn't doing shit
Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad. I think this is pretty obvious. Read Progression + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote:
Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now. He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player). He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance. On June 13 2015 02:27 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 00:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts. On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence. Wow moosy. I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on. You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube. I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do. From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person. I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon). Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town. This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until: On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Who I'm liking so far -
Wave
Trfel
n00bKing
Damdred
Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels
Kickstart
Could Lynch -
Batsnacks
Geript
MoosyDoosy
Sulfurus
RuXxar Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post: On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever. I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. + Show Spoiler +OatsmasterDay 1 Reads + Show Spoiler +Day 1 Suspicions:batsnacksKickstartn00bKing (later votes) geriptSulfurus and geriptDamdredDay 1 TownreadsgeriptruXxarn00bKing RelsHe's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious. On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats. Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep. While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began. This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips. Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow Probably TownRels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred Dunno (need to read his filters again) ruXxar Mafia LeanOatsmaster Mafiascott31337
On June 18 2015 06:59 Trfel wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Wheeee!!! Keep in mind the Day 2 voting analysis I posted here. Analysis of Sulfurus' Filter+ Show Spoiler +Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM) This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading). scott31337Day 1 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Vote Countbatsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Rels, Trfel Sulfurus (4): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow Not Voting: MoosyDoosy, Damdred, scott31337 This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1. His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch. On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote:
He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town. He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started. Vote CountSulfurus (5): Kickstart, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy Rels (3):: Trfel, Damdred, geriptbatsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Sulfurusgeript (2): Rels, Oatsmaster The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each. The reason: On June 14 2015 05:13 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:56 Trfel wrote:Rels' Read Progression- Suspicious of ruXxar early
- Suspicious of MoosyDoosy's first post
- Early suspicions of n00bKing (across multiple posts, vague wording)
- Scumreads Fake)Plants for opening post
- Changes read on ruXxar to town
- Unexplained town reads on WaveofShadow, Kickstart, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Trfel, sort of town lean ish? on Sulfurus, scum leans on MoosyDoosy, geript, and batsnacks
- Says that scott31337 isn't scummy
- Jumps on my suspicion on MoosyDoosy
- List post
- Unvotes batsnacks
- Wants to vote geript, might vote Damdred, could also vote Sulfurus
- Jumps on geript's suspicion of scott31337
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this)
Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript)
Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy
Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post) It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts. The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling. I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man! What has he said about Rels before this? On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels (rest of list post omitted) On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this: On June 14 2015 04:11 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote:I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus. I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript. Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe. On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. people should be talking about this. He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts. On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me. Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. Did you look at this post at all? He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card. It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often. Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy. I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous: On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote:I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered. On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push. ##Vote: Kickstarter(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game) This post is pretty bad. and On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote:@geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him? I'd rather lynch you. Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking. On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote:
Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange. This give me a townlean on kickstart. I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus. Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me? It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy. Day 2 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus. On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote:
If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead
Sulf isn't doing shit
Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad. I think this is pretty obvious. Read Progression + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote:
Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now. He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player). He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance. On June 13 2015 02:27 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 00:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts. On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence. Wow moosy. I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on. You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube. I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do. From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person. I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon). Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town. This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until: On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Who I'm liking so far -
Wave
Trfel
n00bKing
Damdred
Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels
Kickstart
Could Lynch -
Batsnacks
Geript
MoosyDoosy
Sulfurus
RuXxar Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post: On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever. I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. OatsmasterDay 1 Reads + Show Spoiler +Day 1 Suspicions:batsnacksKickstartn00bKing (later votes) geriptSulfurus and geriptDamdredDay 1 TownreadsgeriptruXxarn00bKing RelsHe's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious. On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats. Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep. While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began. This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips. Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow Probably TownRels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred Dunno (need to read his filters again) ruXxar Mafia LeanOatsmaster Mafiascott31337 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1qa8N2ID0
So the first part, is when I townread Rels, I wrote what I meant incorrectly. I wasn't townreading him for calling out my replacement, I was townreading him even if he called out my replacement. I posted this a little bit later.
On June 13 2015 06:56 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 06:44 Trfel wrote:[spoiler] On June 12 2015 10:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
Anyway Trfel, what makes bats town?
I had a town lean on batsnacks due to the balance between his jokes and serious reads. Since then, batsnacks has been much more serious, and his jokes are few and far between, so this read isn't valid any more. On June 12 2015 10:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
NAI is a new thing lol.
I kinda like ruxxar.
It was really funny that he answered a question not directed at him asking why people shouldnt answer questions not directed at them.
He doesnt do it intentionally to just create content IMO.
(bold added) So if he doesn't do it intentionally, then why is it towny? On June 12 2015 15:03 n00bKing wrote:
It's also worth noting that RuXx purposely furthered the conversation about Town players lying, AFTER he saw that some other players were reacting negatively to what he had said. If a Newbie scum player saw that what he had said was causing some raised eyebrows, he might clam up or change the subject, to get beyond the comment that had raised suspicion, and bury it. Instead, he challenges the people who expressed a contradictory viewpoint, which ensures that no readers who come along later will gloss over what he's said.
You could try to say that he didn't realize it was a controversial statement when he first made it. But even after it was clear to him (based on the posts of other players) that it was a controversial statement, he stuck to it, and called more attention to it. Again, I feel like this is boldness you would seldom see from an inexperienced scum player. This point about ruXxar continuing to press the lying issue is good. I guess I judged ruXxar too early. ##unvoteOn June 12 2015 16:35 Rels wrote:
Hello everybody, GL HF!
I'll read the thread now and comment on things. See you soon. I really don't like this post at all. Posting without having read the thread is useless, the only thing it helps with is making it look like you're doing more work that you actually are, and it detracts from scumhunting. But making a useless post after the investigation has already started is pathetic. On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote:
Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent. Rels, what about ruXxar's post made you say this? On June 13 2015 01:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
I can't decide now if I think geript and bats could be scum together for this horribleness. Association cases = bad but I can't help it and I THINK it's probably not the case. One of them at least for sure though.
I have no idea why someone as experienced as WaveofShadow would share a potential association case while in the same post acknowledging that association cases are bad. Please explain. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. Why does calling out the player with only one post, who needs to get replaced, make someone town? Especially because, if you are town, he called out the easiest player to pick on who happens to be confirmed town. I really don't like batsnacks' response to the pressure on him. Batsnacks doesn't normally react like this, he's fine under pressure. In my first game playing with him, I tunneled him for basically all of Day 1 and Night 1, and he made a post telling people to stop arguing about useless things and read the case I had posted on him. I need to read some filters, but batsnacks seems very active, concerned about his safety, but not providing actual content. On June 13 2015 06:42 n00bKing wrote:On June 13 2015 03:28 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:25 batsnacks wrote:
I don't know what geripts alignment is... Clearly that guy is 3P. I don't know what 3P means either. Third party. Let me rephrase this since I see what you are saying but I didn't type that properly. Rels made a case on my replacement slot that he believed in, and caught Plants in a "lie" - I saw him a slight town read for believing in his case. I meant more of (even if he is calling out my replacement slot).
For the vote, KS was looking a bit better, and yes I was a bit unsure. I only had about 20 minutes. I went with the right decision. I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game - I voted for him day 1 for a tie breaker. I admit, my vote was late and didn't swing what would happen anyway. It's also after sulf flipped I saw what might be coming "inb4 scott bussed sulfurus" - I didn't have much time. Moosy (our dead doctor) saw the above as well, including the vote.
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The games over so I can go into it a little bit deeper now - so KS's day one here had very little posting and conclusions. in Guardians as doctor, he was ready to go with a lot more detailed analysis. He was being scum read by most of the people there, but there were some things that made me think he was town, which was not the consensus at that time. It still was a mixed bag (I voted the other wagon) and then he claimed one minute before without enough time for people to adjust and he got lynched. It was almost like night and day from his day one in this game -that's what made me so suspicious of him. The Geript case sounded pretty good, so I let it go and sheeped it. Day two comes and KS is just making afk remarks and almost gives up - and I think he probably sat back, said screw this I'm town I'm going to help out - and started looking a lot better. We go on Sulf and he's the GF. KS could have bussed (so could I have, right?!?) But I am doubtful.
TLDR- I think KS is town now.
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The other game (Guardians) we played together Ruxx, it's against the rules to talk about ongoing games.
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On June 18 2015 07:51 ruXxar wrote:Another question for you scott: Why do you think Sulfurus put you on this list? Show nested quote +On June 17 2015 06:52 Sulfurus wrote:
K before I die:
4 lynches
Oatsmaster
Kickstarter
Batsnacks
MoosyDoosy
If I don't get lynched: Scott31337
Top town
Rels And why do you think he put you buy yourself and wrote "in case I don't get lynched?
It's WIFOM really - he could play the "too scummy to be scum" and call out his teammates or pick a bunch of half townie read people. WoS said it well "Its shit."
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On June 18 2015 19:18 Rels wrote:
OK I'm updating my town list:
WOS
Trfel
Kickstart
batsnacks
By POE 2 mafia are probably here:
ruxxar
Oats
Damdred
scott
And I think at least 1 mafia is in here:
batsnacks
scott
ruxxar
Damdred
Kickstart
Trfel
So crossing the lists, these people has a good chance being mafia:
scott
ruxxar
Damdred
Ordered that last list from most scum to less scum.
So I see the idea of your crosslist, but I'm still curious of how Damdred gets there when you say he is a good sign up above, and how Oats is not, when Oats seems to be at the bottom for me and is suspicious to yourself (and myself) as well.
On June 18 2015 19:20 Rels wrote:OK I really have to work now (= didn't do shit all morning as obviously I was posting things here. TODO list when I have time: ruxxar / Sulfu interactions analysis + updating my scott case.
Please do, I've already wrote my points from above - you can see the other Guardians Game if you think I'm bullshitting about it.
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On June 19 2015 05:08 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 05:06 Rels wrote:
OK so the only way scott has to defend himself is to convince you that someone you think townie is suspicious right ? Scott shouldn't waste his time appealing to me, I won't stop voting him for the rest of the game.
Since you are just going to tunnel on me until you I'm dead and I'm town - I should be suspicious of you then right?
Your "Me/Oats" final answer makes me wonder now though...
On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote:
Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean:
- scott is not defendable
- scott is townie
I am glad you are thinking about this option - It always has made me wonder when a lynch comes too easily without defense. In six games, I have never bussed before, but everyone thinks I'm the bus master. I explained my voting reasons before, but I'll try again -
I was on Sulfurus at a pitoval point on Day 1 - but then I saw Batsnacks case and it made a lot of sense, and I voted for it. A regret now (plus among the hour being earlier then anyone thought) which sucked.
For day 2 - I was in my other mafia game (Guardians) and thought this game would be over already, but it was not - it continued for another day and I was almost able to pull off a victory from triple lylo - but I was unable to - I did reading in this thread as well, posted about Oats, read about KS's comeback - and had about twenty minutes to vote. I picked KS at first, and then my top towns were on Sulfurus, so I switched votes. You're right, it looks kinda bad - I guess even worse if I left my vote on KS - Oats and Rels did.
On June 19 2015 06:14 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 05:59 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 19 2015 03:53 Kickstart wrote:
I dunno I don't see much scum motivation in Damdreds day2 stuff around the sulfurus lynch. Basically said he refused to lynch me when I was probably who scum were going to try for and he was one of the first onto sulf. I mean its possible but if Damdred is scum why doesn't he try to get something going on a townie instead of just hard defending me and immediatly voting his scum buddy. Doesnt make sense to me :/ I have a problem with this personally. It makes perfect sense to me for this reason exactly. Damdred could simply be playing the 'solo' mafia and pocketing specific players. A hard defense of a player when no one else is out for it fits the bill pretty well. Especially given that it's the 'strong' players. Did the same for batsnacks. I actually think Damdred might be scum here. Sitting back completely flying under the radar is NOT how Damdred plays, I just played a game where he was town and I was scum and it was not like this. I also still need to hear back from Oats regarding my earlier question. As far as the wagon on Scott I'm not sure how I feel about it. Did you read my posts? I thought they were pretty compelling.
Please inform me of what posts - I just read your filter and see -
On June 19 2015 03:46 batsnacks wrote:
so townies are very likely to be:
Batsnacks
Oats
Ruxxar
Rels
Kickstart
Wave
Mafia is:
Scott
Damdred
If I need to I will make a meta case on Damdred. Did I miss anyone?
On June 19 2015 03:24 batsnacks wrote:
If someone could step in a nod occasionally so that I don't start quintuple posting that would be great.
Thinking about it more, ruxxar is probably town and probably wound up on so many wagons because he is over thinking his first game. He probably discredited my geript read because he saw n00b do it first and thought it would be okay for him to do it. I think all of his scummy actions can be explained in a way that makes sense for town.
Scott on the other hand does not make an appearance in sulfur's filter until 10 minutes before sulfur is about to be lynched. I am starting to like the possibility of sulfur attempting to wifom Scott/oats. Sulfur's read on Damdred is also suspicious.
Sulf's post is a bunch of WIFOM and it seems to be working for you - but this is the only thing here I see in your filter as a "compelling reason" - the rest are just one lines (scott's a lowly goon, shennanie to scott, etc. with no facts.)
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On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote:
Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player)
If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up.
1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts.
In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread.
2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point.
Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out.
3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught.
He's not doing this here.
Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads.
Leave the bats alone
So doing some filter drive from Damdred on D1 - I see #2 here, but I do not see "well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons" for calling me out. Do you still see this Damdred?
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Exactly 
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And I'm unvoting Oats now I think he's town -
On June 19 2015 02:23 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 02:22 ruXxar wrote:
So I wanted to start a process of elimination.
Right now my most solid town reads are:
Wave:
For his reaction to my call out of blue hunting.
For his "I want this dead" comment on sulfur.
Batsnacks:
For the way sulf desperately cried out that bats was scum when people swapped votes from sulf to rels.
Kickstart:
For ... Reasons. hey dude if you are calling bats town because sulph scumread him, why arent you calling me town? sulph scumread me too.
What reasons? I think I'll just wait for the others to get here, because I've read your filter twice, and there aren't any reasons in there.
I love the tunnel - just like on Geript right? But when I get lynched and flip town, you'll flip your read on Damdred tomorrow right and go after someone else?
Scott has psychic powers every game! He must be scum! This ones for you VE
## Damdred / Batsnacks / Sulfurus
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Yeah I'll be back in a couple hours to answer questions from reasonable townsfolk.
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Trfel - what did I not answer to when I replied to your case?
On June 19 2015 09:34 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 03:42 batsnacks wrote:Sulfur's strategy d1 is getting on my wagon asap and townreading the other people who voted and stayed on my wagon. Sulfur is "rewarding" n00b and ruxxar with town reads because they are pushing an agenda that benefits him. Sulfur does not need to reward his scum mates to get them to push his agenda, they do it for free. K now I'm about to possibly get controversial. Re-reading sulfur's filter again, oats is town. I will show you why with sulfur's oats case: On June 16 2015 15:32 Sulfurus wrote:K I just realized that Oats is scummy. I looked through his filter and minus the fluff it's just him asking questions (interspersed with attempts to discredit towny posts) Now I'm sure n00b would be quick to remind me that asking questions is actually towny as it provides valuable scum hunting information But even if Oats has gotten anything from his posts he hasn't actually provided any of it to the thread in fact it's likely that his questions are helping mafia more then town. ##Vote: Oatsmaster Look where sulfur says oats is discrediting n00b and Rels townie posts. Sulfur is defending their posts from the big bad bully oats. Newer mafia players do this a lot as scum; they defend townies from aggressive/abrasive town players and scum read them because they believe that the abrasive townie's attitude will make them easier to mislynch. They believe they are earning town points from saving other townie's from the bully. This also implies that Rels is town. And what prevents newer mafia players from defending townies from aggressive/abrasive scum players because they know that their arguments are false? Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 04:36 batsnacks wrote:
I just remembered that sulfur hard defended Rels and rux from trfel d1. This is very likely a case of sulfur defending town from town, which he also did with oats and Rels/n00b. If Trfel is mafia sulfur is not going to hard defend two townies from him.
Scott/Damdred final answer. Despite your conclusion, this is a bad argument. Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote:
Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean:
- scott is not defendable
- scott is townie There's only two mafia left, and since this assumes that scott31337 is mafia, then there's only one other. Honestly, I feel like scott31337 is being more and more obviously mafia as the day goes, and I don't really see how scum could defend him here. Show nested quote +On June 19 2015 08:39 scott31337 wrote:On June 19 2015 05:40 Rels wrote:
Last thought of the day: this push is too easy. So easy. There is 6 people voting scott, and WOS was here and did nothing to interrupt that: so that's 7 people out of 9, and 2 mafia left. Statistically, there is at least one mafia on these 7, who is currently is not doing anything to make the thread move.
And I can apply this theory for the whole day. Almost nothing happened, and scott was the most likely train from the very beginning. I know for a fact ruxx and Oats were here and did nothing, for example.
So to me everybody is happy with the lynch going this way: town 'cause scott is super scummy, AND mafia.
So it seems that the mafia team is happy with scott going down. It can mean:
- scott is not defendable
- scott is townie I am glad you are thinking about this option - It always has made me wonder when a lynch comes too easily without defense. In six games, I have never bussed before, but everyone thinks I'm the bus master. I explained my voting reasons before, but I'll try again - I was on Sulfurus at a pitoval point on Day 1 - but then I saw Batsnacks case and it made a lot of sense, and I voted for it. A regret now (plus among the hour being earlier then anyone thought) which sucked. For day 2 - I was in my other mafia game (Guardians) and thought this game would be over already, but it was not - it continued for another day and I was almost able to pull off a victory from triple lylo - but I was unable to - I did reading in this thread as well, posted about Oats, read about KS's comeback - and had about twenty minutes to vote. I picked KS at first, and then my top towns were on Sulfurus, so I switched votes. You're right, it looks kinda bad - I guess even worse if I left my vote on KS - Oats and Rels did. Scott31337 is ignoring the points I've brought against him. He happily omits switching off of Sulfurus to vote for Rels, and how he provided no original reasons for voting for Rels and for geript. He keeps saying how he voted for Sulfurus at a pivotal moment, when it really wasn't that crucial (especially knowing that he and Sulfurus didn't have much thread presence, thus lacked ability to move the lynch effectively). Once again he makes activity excuses, and says that his vote looked bad. But he's dodging the facts, and he's being inconsistent in his defense. When he actually switched to Sulfurus Day 2, his posts clearly show that he was voting with his top towns and with just because Sulfurus was ninja voting, he didn't bring up any actual reasons to suspect Sulfurus at all. Last time he explained his vote switch at the end of Day 2, he added the line "I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game", which wasn't something he mentioned at all when he actually switched votes. And now he didn't bring that up in his latest explanation of the vote switch. I'm really not sure about people scumreading Damdred. I've scumread Damdred the last few games I've played, and really it's just made the games an unfriendly yelling match (and he's always been town). From what I've seen of Damdred this game, he's been a bit underwhelming but he still feels towny, primarily for the way he pushed Sulfurus.
On June 18 2015 07:27 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2015 06:59 Trfel wrote:Wheeee!!! Keep in mind the Day 2 voting analysis I posted here. Analysis of Sulfurus' Filter+ Show Spoiler +Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town
Says that he would lynch Damdred
Voted for batsnacks
Rels town
Would lynch Trfel
Vote on Oatsmaster
(final list post ignored due to WIFOM)
This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading). Day 1 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Vote Countbatsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Rels, Trfel Sulfurus (4): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow Not Voting: MoosyDoosy, Damdred, scott31337 This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1. His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch. On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote:
He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town. He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started. Vote CountSulfurus (5): Kickstart, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy Rels (3):: Trfel, Damdred, geriptbatsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Sulfurusgeript (2): Rels, Oatsmaster The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each. The reason: On June 14 2015 05:13 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:56 Trfel wrote:Rels' Read Progression- Suspicious of ruXxar early
- Suspicious of MoosyDoosy's first post
- Early suspicions of n00bKing (across multiple posts, vague wording)
- Scumreads Fake)Plants for opening post
- Changes read on ruXxar to town
- Unexplained town reads on WaveofShadow, Kickstart, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Trfel, sort of town lean ish? on Sulfurus, scum leans on MoosyDoosy, geript, and batsnacks
- Says that scott31337 isn't scummy
- Jumps on my suspicion on MoosyDoosy
- List post
- Unvotes batsnacks
- Wants to vote geript, might vote Damdred, could also vote Sulfurus
- Jumps on geript's suspicion of scott31337
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this)
Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript)
Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy
Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post) It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts. The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling. I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man! What has he said about Rels before this? On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels (rest of list post omitted) On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this: On June 14 2015 04:11 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote:I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus. I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript. Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe. On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. people should be talking about this. He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts. On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me. Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. Did you look at this post at all? He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card. It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often. Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy. I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous: On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote:I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered. On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push. ##Vote: Kickstarter(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game) This post is pretty bad. and On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote:@geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him? I'd rather lynch you. Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking. On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote:
Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange. This give me a townlean on kickstart. I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus. Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me? It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy. Day 2 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus. On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote:
If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead
Sulf isn't doing shit
Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad. I think this is pretty obvious. Read Progression + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote:
Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now. He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player). He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance. On June 13 2015 02:27 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 00:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts. On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence. Wow moosy. I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on. You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube. I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do. From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person. I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon). Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town. This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until: On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Who I'm liking so far -
Wave
Trfel
n00bKing
Damdred
Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels
Kickstart
Could Lynch -
Batsnacks
Geript
MoosyDoosy
Sulfurus
RuXxar Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post: On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever. I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. + Show Spoiler +OatsmasterDay 1 Reads + Show Spoiler +Day 1 Suspicions:batsnacksKickstartn00bKing (later votes) geriptSulfurus and geriptDamdredDay 1 TownreadsgeriptruXxarn00bKing RelsHe's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious. On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats. Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep. While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began. This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips. Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow Probably TownRels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred Dunno (need to read his filters again) ruXxar Mafia LeanOatsmaster Mafiascott31337 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1qa8N2ID0 Show nested quote +On June 18 2015 06:59 Trfel wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Wheeee!!! Keep in mind the Day 2 voting analysis I posted here. Analysis of Sulfurus' Filter+ Show Spoiler +Willing to vote for Kickstart early on, suggests that Kickstart is town Says that he would lynch Damdred Voted for batsnacks Rels town Would lynch Trfel Vote on Oatsmaster (final list post ignored due to WIFOM) This suggests to me that Damdred is town and batsnacks is town, and also Kickstart town. It seems to hint at Rels being scummy. I don't think it says anything about Oatsmaster, because the wagons between Sulfurus and Kickstart were about even at this point. It looked fairly bad for Sulfurus here, so his vote on Oatsmaster isn't very useful (if he was really trying to stay alive, he would have voted for Kickstart, who he was comfortable scumreading). scott31337Day 1 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Vote Countbatsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Rels, Trfel Sulfurus (4): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow Not Voting: MoosyDoosy, Damdred, scott31337 This is the situation when scott31337 places his vote. He voted for Sulfurus here. At the time of his vote, there was a little less than 20 hours left in Day 1. His vote for Sulfurus here doesn't actually mean that much. There's a lot of time left in the day, and it's likely that many people will switch votes. Still, his vote on Sulfurus leaves batsnacks in the vote lead, and when Sulfurus flips, it makes him look better. The only reason that mafia!scott31337 wouldn't want to vote for Sulfurus here is in case his vote ends up making the difference and he doesn't have an excuse to switch. On June 13 2015 14:45 scott31337 wrote:
He has not laid any of his battraps though, which makes me wonder, he almost always does this as town. He said this to me in BBCode. There's something that he can use as an excuse to switch to batsnacks later. He says this before the Rels wagon started. Vote CountSulfurus (5): Kickstart, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy Rels (3):: Trfel, Damdred, geriptbatsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Sulfurusgeript (2): Rels, Oatsmaster The Rels wagon is gaining steam and the batsnacks wagon is dying. It looks like the lynch will come down to Sulfurus and Rels, and it looks fairly close. Here, scott31337 switched to Rels from Sulfurus, bringing them to four votes each. The reason: On June 14 2015 05:13 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:56 Trfel wrote:Rels' Read Progression- Suspicious of ruXxar early
- Suspicious of MoosyDoosy's first post
- Early suspicions of n00bKing (across multiple posts, vague wording)
- Scumreads Fake)Plants for opening post
- Changes read on ruXxar to town
- Unexplained town reads on WaveofShadow, Kickstart, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Trfel, sort of town lean ish? on Sulfurus, scum leans on MoosyDoosy, geript, and batsnacks
- Says that scott31337 isn't scummy
- Jumps on my suspicion on MoosyDoosy
- List post
- Unvotes batsnacks
- Wants to vote geript, might vote Damdred, could also vote Sulfurus
- Jumps on geript's suspicion of scott31337
Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people. + Show Spoiler [Examples] +Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this)
Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript)
Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy
Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post) It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts. The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling. I can get aboard this and feeling better then a Sulf lynch - you pulled a lot of work Trfel. You the man! What has he said about Rels before this? On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels (rest of list post omitted) On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Given how his post before switching to Rels, he said this: On June 14 2015 04:11 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote:I'm trying to figure out why people are scumreading sulfurus. I read through his filter and I found nothing to make me read him as either alignment. I went through the voting history to see who voted for him. The kickstart vote was too early to judge for me, so I ignored it. The next one to vote is geript. Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe. On June 12 2015 10:27 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. people should be talking about this. He pointed out that since noone jumped on moosy for this post, then moosy is mafia. This makes no sense to me. To me that post is filled with genuine excitement from a newbie. Seeing as I'm a newbie too i understand all to well how he must've felt in his early posts. On June 13 2015 03:31 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Geript I don't understand how you go from seemingly town-->scum-->town on moosy without any real change in anything he has done. Not following thought processes with you at all, though I think that actually might be standard for you and it annoys me. Never assumed he was town to start w/ babycakes. Moreso: 1. Moosy makes a god awful post --> I think he's scum 2. No one pushes Moosy --> If he's town I'd expect someone to have jumped on him therefore scum 3. Posts a shit ton --> Probably just nubian with bad opening and mafia afk or otherwise engaged On June 13 2015 05:29 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 08:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:On June 12 2015 08:10 ruXxar wrote:
I'd like to hear your reasoning for voting on me, besides the fact that very few other people have spoke up yet. I am just rather overwhelmed by the amount of (cross) analysis occurring right now. ^.^ Although this is my first time around, I can already tell this will be great. Down to business. So @ruXxar, your reasoning for voting for Kickstart is his statement about lying in a game of Mafia? And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. Although I don't see why Kickstart went so far as to vote for Oatsmaster right off the bat. Unless he's the Mafia and trying to mislead us. On another note, do we know how many Mafias there are? If there are two Mafias, Oatsmaster and Kickstart may be those two and may have set this up to make everyone confused and make people like you two fight amongst yourselves. Did you look at this post at all? He's commenting about things that don't really matter in a way that he's seemingly had some interesting thought on it. He asks a question that's essentially a statement. He meanders through potentially interesting topics while giving no opinion on anything. Then he plays the dumbtell card. It's a big post that literally offers nothing while commenting on things in a way that confer a formed opinion. It almost can be boiled down to: "I've been thinking about this game, but I won't really comment on it at all. What do you guys think about this random stuff?" I don't see even newer town players do that often. Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy. I can't see his reasoning for voting on sulfurous. Basically he said 2 things about sulfurous: On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote:On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote:I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered. On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push. ##Vote: Kickstarter(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game) This post is pretty bad. and On June 13 2015 05:12 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 04:37 Sulfurus wrote:@geript That's good that you no longer scum read Moosy but Bats hasn't made the same realization you have and you townread two of the people voting on him. So what do you think of him? I'd rather lynch you. Then kickstart says this which aligns with my own thinking. On June 13 2015 06:03 Kickstart wrote:
Went through geript's filter. His move off moosy and onto sulfurus was weird to me. He just said "id rather lynch you" in this thread, then voted in the other thread, and hasn't mentioned it at all. strange. This give me a townlean on kickstart. I still think bats is our best lynch for day 1, but geript has raised a red flag for me. I want to know why he's voting for sulfurus. Why does this just scream "save sulfurus" for some reason to me? It seems like he was preparing to look good for bussing Sulfurus, but left himself an out to vote for batsnacks if necessary, and then decided to join the Rels wagon when he had a chance. This feels rather scummy. Day 2 Voting Analysis + Show Spoiler +Along with Sulfurus, scott31337 voted for Kickstart to bring the wagons to Kickstart with five votes and Sulfurus with six. Despite this being close, it became clear that Sulfurus was going to be lynched, so scott31337 switched votes to Sulfurus. On June 17 2015 06:49 scott31337 wrote:
If Sulf is mafia then I'll look like shit
Trfel is my believer and WoS is my believer they want Sulf dead
Sulf isn't doing shit
Let's go Sulf then fuhq it
And he's well aware that Sulfurus flipping red makes him look bad. I think this is pretty obvious. Read Progression + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2015 02:08 scott31337 wrote:
Geript has four posts and very little content. I know he's good as mafia - but on the scum side of null for now. He scumreads geript here, but uses the reason that geript is good at mafia to weaken his argument. As a result, he doesn't push this at all (and it would be hard to push geript, because he is a strong player). He also scumreads MoosyDoosy and batsnacks, back when MoosyDoosy was a very easy target and batsnacks was scumread by most people. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. It makes no sense whatsoever for town!scott31337 to townread Rels for scumreading the person he replaced for his one post. Assuming that scott31337 is town, he townreads Rels for scumreading someone who scott31337 knows is town and was only able to make one (useless) post. There is no reason whatsoever that Rels should get a townread for this. To me, this feels like scott31337 is attempting to pocket Rels, which makes sense given that Rels would naturally be suspicious of him after the replacement. His explanation here adds that he townread Rels for strongly believing this case, but mafia!Rels has no reason NOT to push his case so strongly because he knows that Fake)Plants is town (thus an easy mislynch) and that he almost certainly won't provide strong resistance. On June 13 2015 02:27 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 00:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 12 2015 11:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
^ Also Kickstart, I wouldn't read too much into ruXx's initial post where he's rambling about slapping/daydreaming about Mafia. It might have been from an attempt to identify himself as a non-aggressor to the Mafia so that when night time comes around, they don't kill him. If the game went on for longer, people would also suspect ruXx more giving the Mafia an easy kill. This actually happens a ton in real life Mafia but it's clear it's totally different online at this point.
Also, going back to his post where he "misses the interaction" which is right after his rambling, it's pretty clear that ruXx is not paying attention whatsoever. As a newbie he was probably just as excited as I was about remaining passive which is why he didn't notice the err in his post. Just the fact that it seems he has no idea whatsoever about what he's saying during his rambling just shows this too.
I'll look through the rest of your points, but I'll try and provide a "newbie perspective." Either way, it looks like he wised up real fast and stopped being as frantic and energetic in his posts. On June 12 2015 11:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Yeah, the more I read of ruXx's initial posts, the more it seems he's thinking in terms of a real life Mafia game as well as tryharding a bit.
Him intercepting a question was him tryharding a basic read and him supporting lying is from a real life Mafia mindset since lying is much more common in real life.
The last two posts that you point out are kind of shady but even then they err on the side of newbie to online Mafia. Overall I wouldn't vote him just yet until we get more evidence. Wow moosy. I have to give you 5 stars for this read. It's like you're inside my head or something. I had goosebumps reading this since it was so spot on. You are absolutely right that my only exposure to mafia has been through watching the TI qualifiers hub, and later watching all stars mafia on youtube. I really wanted to emulate the dynamic of a live environment, and went in trying to actively counter some of the things i picked up that a mafia would do. From watching those live mafia games I learned that the number 1 trait of a mafia is to be silent. They would bide their time and look for arguments to bandwagon onto, often avoid getting into heated arguments if possible, and when attacked they would try to deflect onto another person. I admit I am very excited to go out playing my first mafia game, and overracted by claiming my role before day 1 post(I did not know that this was frowned upon). Another thing that I learned is that it doesn't matter if you are mafia or not, as long as you contribute to try solving the case, then it's good to keep people around just in case they are town, because then in the largest portion of games they would be a boon to you as a town. This is Rexxar's best post. The goosebumps part sounds so legitimate and would be extremely creative to fake from the posts he made earlier. Slight town read Slight townread on ruXxar. Then he doesn't mention ruXxar for a while, until: On June 13 2015 07:29 scott31337 wrote:
Who I'm liking so far -
Wave
Trfel
n00bKing
Damdred
Oats
Probably wouldn't lynch today -
Rels
Kickstart
Could Lynch -
Batsnacks
Geript
MoosyDoosy
Sulfurus
RuXxar Including basically everyone who could be lynched today in the "Could Lynch" category. Again, note that he ends up voting for Rels, despite having included him in the "Probably wouldn't lynch today" category, the only reasons being sheeping me and this post: On June 13 2015 07:37 scott31337 wrote:
KS and Rels are playing a lot different then my last game with either of them, which makes me wonder. Finally, he's always saying he could lynch geript, without actually pushing it or doing anything about it. When the votes finally switched to geript, and scott31337 switched his own vote to geript, he didn't say anything whatsoever. I need to move on, I'm running out of time, but I'm pretty confident that scott31337 is mafia. OatsmasterDay 1 Reads + Show Spoiler +Day 1 Suspicions:batsnacksKickstartn00bKing (later votes) geriptSulfurus and geriptDamdredDay 1 TownreadsgeriptruXxarn00bKing RelsHe's really not offering townreads, and he's throwing a LOT of suspicion around. This isn't necessarily alignment indicative, as town!Oatsmaster loves to throw suspicion around. However, his stance on Sulfurus is very suspicious. On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.
On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats. Finally, the voting analysis of Day 1 looks suspicious. He was hard scumreading batsnacks for a very long time, and eventually the votes went to batsnacks at 6, and Sulfurus at 4. Then Rels unvoted, and it looked like the batsnacks wagon was going to collapse. Instead of waiting for Sulfurus (who he already said he would lynch after batsnacks), Oatsmaster stayed around and waited until it looked like there was a good chance of a geript wagon, and then voted geript and went to sleep. While he did townread Rels, he did this before the push on Rels began. This is Oatsmaster trying to save Sulfurus, but not looking bad if he flips. Kickstart batsnacks WaveofShadow Probably TownRels (despite Sulfurus association) MoosyDoosy Damdred Dunno (need to read his filters again) ruXxar Mafia LeanOatsmaster Mafiascott31337 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1qa8N2ID0 So the first part, is when I townread Rels, I wrote what I meant incorrectly. I wasn't townreading him for calling out my replacement, I was townreading him even if he called out my replacement. I posted this a little bit later. Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 06:56 scott31337 wrote:On June 13 2015 06:44 Trfel wrote:[spoiler] On June 12 2015 10:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
Anyway Trfel, what makes bats town?
I had a town lean on batsnacks due to the balance between his jokes and serious reads. Since then, batsnacks has been much more serious, and his jokes are few and far between, so this read isn't valid any more. On June 12 2015 10:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
NAI is a new thing lol.
I kinda like ruxxar.
It was really funny that he answered a question not directed at him asking why people shouldnt answer questions not directed at them.
He doesnt do it intentionally to just create content IMO.
(bold added) So if he doesn't do it intentionally, then why is it towny? On June 12 2015 15:03 n00bKing wrote:
It's also worth noting that RuXx purposely furthered the conversation about Town players lying, AFTER he saw that some other players were reacting negatively to what he had said. If a Newbie scum player saw that what he had said was causing some raised eyebrows, he might clam up or change the subject, to get beyond the comment that had raised suspicion, and bury it. Instead, he challenges the people who expressed a contradictory viewpoint, which ensures that no readers who come along later will gloss over what he's said.
You could try to say that he didn't realize it was a controversial statement when he first made it. But even after it was clear to him (based on the posts of other players) that it was a controversial statement, he stuck to it, and called more attention to it. Again, I feel like this is boldness you would seldom see from an inexperienced scum player. This point about ruXxar continuing to press the lying issue is good. I guess I judged ruXxar too early. ##unvoteOn June 12 2015 16:35 Rels wrote:
Hello everybody, GL HF!
I'll read the thread now and comment on things. See you soon. I really don't like this post at all. Posting without having read the thread is useless, the only thing it helps with is making it look like you're doing more work that you actually are, and it detracts from scumhunting. But making a useless post after the investigation has already started is pathetic. On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote:
Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent. Rels, what about ruXxar's post made you say this? On June 13 2015 01:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
I can't decide now if I think geript and bats could be scum together for this horribleness. Association cases = bad but I can't help it and I THINK it's probably not the case. One of them at least for sure though.
I have no idea why someone as experienced as WaveofShadow would share a potential association case while in the same post acknowledging that association cases are bad. Please explain. On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read. Why does calling out the player with only one post, who needs to get replaced, make someone town? Especially because, if you are town, he called out the easiest player to pick on who happens to be confirmed town. I really don't like batsnacks' response to the pressure on him. Batsnacks doesn't normally react like this, he's fine under pressure. In my first game playing with him, I tunneled him for basically all of Day 1 and Night 1, and he made a post telling people to stop arguing about useless things and read the case I had posted on him. I need to read some filters, but batsnacks seems very active, concerned about his safety, but not providing actual content. On June 13 2015 06:42 n00bKing wrote:On June 13 2015 03:28 geript wrote:On June 13 2015 03:25 batsnacks wrote:
I don't know what geripts alignment is... Clearly that guy is 3P. I don't know what 3P means either. Third party. Let me rephrase this since I see what you are saying but I didn't type that properly. Rels made a case on my replacement slot that he believed in, and caught Plants in a "lie" - I saw him a slight town read for believing in his case. I meant more of (even if he is calling out my replacement slot). For the vote, KS was looking a bit better, and yes I was a bit unsure. I only had about 20 minutes. I went with the right decision. I've been scumming Sulf for most of the game - I voted for him day 1 for a tie breaker. I admit, my vote was late and didn't swing what would happen anyway. It's also after sulf flipped I saw what might be coming "inb4 scott bussed sulfurus" - I didn't have much time. Moosy (our dead doctor) saw the above as well, including the vote.
Please help me understand what I missed so I can respond.
Is my Batsnacks / Damdred / Sulf theory tinfoil crazy?
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Ruxx is newb town
WoS is top town
Trfel is actually pushing me for reasons though unlike Batsnacks
KS is up there
Rels shit town rainbows day 2
Oats is still suspicious - but slightly better
Bats is pressing me for shit reasons - (but Trfel is actually pressing real information, etc.)
I re-read Bats and Damdred filters (WIFOM, but Boxer probably saw he was mafia again and wanted to be replaced) and they have weird "you'll be sorry" interactions and xoxos/etc.
We don't need another mislynch, so please, unlike Tunnelbats - ask me any questions that I can help answer. I've never bussed or had to bus - but people think I bus every fucking game no matter what my alignment is. Read my last game (Guardians)
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What do you think about Damdred?
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Trfel -
So to re-quote, here is my first post.
On June 13 2015 01:44 scott31337 wrote:
Good day. I'm at page 16 - So far not liking N00bking for his wordy fluff - and Rels gets a slight townread (even if it's for calling out my replacement). KS and Oats feel are two townies angry at each other.
Let me catch up with the rest and a through read.
So I make my first post at page 16 catching up with the thread - this is Rels last quote from that page - the timestamp is more important then the quote.
On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote:
Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent.
So. What do you think of plants first and only post ?
So from those posts we see -
On June 12 2015 16:45 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2015 08:51 n00bKing wrote:On June 12 2015 08:45 batsnacks wrote:
5. Don't lie. RuXx is on the Newbie list. How likely do you think it is that an inexperienced Mafia player would lead off the game talking about how it's cool for Town players to lie? An inexperienced Mafia member might be timid about saying hardly anything, but could be especially timid about telling everyone that there's nothing wrong with telling lies, even if you're Town. That kind of reckless boldness is a little Town-indicative to me. Someone wants to vote against him because of his needless roleclaim, fine. But voting against him because he says it's fine to lie would be a stretch. And I think voting against him because he got caught answering a question directed at someone else (while explaining why you shouldn't answer questions directed at someone else) would be a stretch. Why are you defending him so early. Let him do it himself.
A calling out someone defense post on answering others questions -
Now that I re-read this post, it's funny how Rels points out a "case" when Sulfurus pointed out a two quote "case" I had myself - and KS did not have a case. (WIFOM such, but interesting to point out after re-reading)
On June 12 2015 16:46 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2015 10:12 Sulfurus wrote:I'm starting to really like the case on Kickstarter; he has made a lot of posts that give the illusion of being a helpful towny with his PSA and rule clarifications but they are really just filler and something that the mods already have covered. On top of that I think n00bKing's defense of ruXx is spot on which gives even more validity to the Kickstarter push. ##Vote: Kickstarter(I admit that in a vacuum I would probably scum read Bats more but I've learned my lesson from last game) @Sulfurus : what case ?
And this is the post he pointed out about my replacement -
On June 12 2015 17:53 Rels wrote:OK I finally found a mafia. Show nested quote +On June 12 2015 14:01 Fake)Plants wrote:Lying is a powerful tool that when used in the right situation can greatly benefit one's interests. I really don't like this idea from ruX. If town lies and gets lynched then what information did that townie provide? Are you trying to lure out mafia by lying? Mafia has more information at the beginning and can utilize lying better than town, especially if it comes from a townie. Sorry for being late to the thread, I did not check TL the last couple of days after I thought someone else beat me to a newbie slot. Good to be here! First post of his. Next to last to enter the thread. Just fluff on the first paragraph. What is really scum is the second paragraph. Two points: - He enter the thread late and feels he needs to post an excuse. To me, he had the mindset of entering the thread without saying anything, and apologizing so people like him. - His excuse is false. We all had to confirm yesterday, so that's not possible that he did not check TL the last couple of days, or that he believed that someone else took his spot.
Now I do not know what Fake was thinking here, but I saw honest points here - and the people at the time all had to confirm in (boxerfred too?) - this makes logical sense- especially from what I pointed up above now I missed.
I replaced out and Rels looks townie from the filter I've read so far - even if he thought my replacement looked bad from the confirmation earlier. That is why I made that post.
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Wave do you really think Bats is town? Him pushing me for very little reasons has me worried.
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On June 19 2015 15:35 ruXxar wrote:
Scott, your top scum reads right now are Damdred and bats.
I want to see you make a case against both, bring all the dirt you can find and fight for you life!
From the way you are posting I don't feel like you are even believing in your own words right now. Where is the passion, where is the anger inside you of being falsely accused of being mafia.
Either you show me that or you are toast.
Now you sound like Tunnelbats and making ultimatums. I almost was defending you but your point of view is scummy. I do not need to show anger and emotion to get my point across - AoE (appealing to emotion) is often a scummy trait - Bill Murray taught me that - and he's the scummiest player on TL. <3 BM
So what did you not like about my answers to Trfel's case?
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On June 19 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote:
Scott31337, I see your post and I'm pretty convinced you are mafia. Not going to argue with you about this any more.
I'm sorry you feel this way -
Who would you like to lynch tomorrow when I flip town?
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Every newbie game I had a coach I was mafia
I need to play a game with a coach as town - I did okay by myself in Guardians but I still lost the game.
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EPT
