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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On October 06 2013 02:45 austinmcc wrote: Nope. One of you is the likely third broseph. I don't believe that the two of you are associated. Ok so CR is third member despite the fact that he blatantly told everyone in thread he was defending Palmar? Really? If it has to be one of us, then it would have to be me. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On October 06 2013 02:46 austinmcc wrote: I will note that if you assume Chairman is not a position, but an actual MAN made of CHAIRS, then Chair Man Ray has 3 words and Wave of Shadow has 3 words, indicating you both might be connected in a game with 3 scum members per team. I guess he could also not be MADE of chairs, but some sort of chair-weapon-using Mega Man robot. Nope. Now that I believe you might be scum I defy your trolly attempts at humour, just as I did early game. Scumtell all you want with that. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 06 2013 02:52 WaveofShadow wrote: Hi WoS. Do you think this is a rational thing to think:Ok so CR is third member despite the fact that he blatantly told everyone in thread he was defending Palmar? Really? If it has to be one of us, then it would have to be me. Palmar is on a 3-man scumteam. SnB is already dead. The third member of that team does NOT want Palmar lynched, but is worried that it may happen, and can't come out too strongly against. He's worried that they're the last two bros and if Palmar goes down, he needs to not look like he hard defended his scumbuddy. Rational? It's an assumption, but I think it's logical. IF that's the case, you and CR both exhibit similar behavior. Palmar is scum, but I'd rather lynch x. Whereas you say can't read can't read can't read maybe scum can't read but rather lynch x, CR just says "I think he and this dude are scum, here's why I'd prefer to lynch this other dude." In both cases, you're not OPPOSING the Palmar lynch, and not townreading him, but you're trying to undermine it. Plus, I don't actually see a real "I want to defend Palmar statement", except this "Right now, I think I'm gonna put my vote on FT since there isn't that big a benefit lynching VA over him, and plus, I wanna save Palmer" which [i]is at the end of a post in which he never quite calls Palmar scum or town. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On October 06 2013 02:44 austinmcc wrote: It is, I'm just saying it goes deeper than that. Look at the rest of his sizeable posts where he gives reads or votes. - + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote: Vote on koshi bolstered by long post and lots of RNG / what would I do as koshi if mafia/town chat. Lots of RNG, lots of hypothetical, less about HERE IS WHAT KOSHI DID AND THIS THING IS SCUMMY VOTE VOTE.Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up. I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia. Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia. Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG. Just for now ##Vote: Koshi I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG. On September 30 2013 07:43 Chairman Ray wrote: Springboarding off BH kill into minor-BH-flip-reliant reads.I've been looking over the thread a bit, especially at the BH kill. It's possible that he got killed by both mafia, or just one mafia, or got shot by the police. However I don't think police would shoot someone on the first night, especially not BH. I would just narrow it down to one or both mafia teams shooting BH. If only one of them shot BH, then the other either did a drive by or got vested. I think we should try to determine if one of the scum teams did a drive by, because that would give us really good information going into day 3. If someone comes out and says they vested and it blocked a shot, we can confirm that neither of the scum teams have 2 KP. As for killing BH, from reading the thread, I think BH was killed by someone who had some sort of relation to him. Most of BH's posts were about the whole RNG thing. If I was scum, I wouldn't shoot BH in hopes that he wastes more time on d2. This leads me to believe that the scum team that shot BH wasn't just 3 lurkers, and at least one of them had to have some strong interaction with BH. So I think there are three possible motives: 1. BH was shot because he was strongly pushing against FT and this kill was to protect FT. This kill also really puts the spotlight on FT, but at the same time that's also a reason scum could use to make FT seem innocent. In the end, it becomes an endless chain or circular logic that we can't really look into. The simplest solution is that this kill really benefited FT, and I think FT looks scummy because of it. 2. BH was shot so that a discussion can be made around FT, which creates a diversion from someone else who already looks kinda scummy. If this were true, it would also be consistent with my read that the scum team isn't 3 lurkers with no relation to BH. I would need to read more into the thread to see who could be scum in this case. 3. Near the end, BH was giving a strong townread on palmer. Palmer was active at this point. BH might have been killed so to give his townread on palmer more credibility. This gives Palmer an incentive to kill BH if he was scum. However, looking through his filter, I actually think Palmer is quite town, so I dunno here. One other thing I am willing to gamble on is that Palmer and FirmTofu cannot be in the same scum team. Killing BH would draw way too much unnecessary attention on them, and also it would be really weird for them to kill BH when he's giving a scumread on one of them and a townread on the other. I don't think they would kill BH even to be meta. Right now I'm going to be looking more into FT. However, I don't want to vote him this early on simply because he's the easiest target, and if he flips town, it will not put us in a good position. On September 30 2013 08:38 Chairman Ray wrote: One of a few uncomplicated, normal "I think this guy is scum for reasons within his filter."Looking through filters, I am a bit concerned about ShiaoPi. He was pretty active on D1, but most of his activity was just one liners to get people to go through with the RNG lynch and a couple short posts shrugging off FT analysis as lynchbait. He's obviously active, and has a lot of mafia experience, so I would expect a lot more analysis or reads coming from him (unless this is what he does every game). I'm liking the FT lynch a lot more now, because it may tell us something about ShiaoPi. On October 01 2013 14:00 Chairman Ray wrote: This is a vote, and for in-thread reasons, and some other reads for in-thread reasons. But he lumps it ALL together, packaged up, and only responds to Vayne attacking that post hard. Like, he makes some reads, but they are in a single, solitary post, jumbled with a vote, and the vote is just a single thing tacked onto all the reads. It's not so much the MEAT of the post.Hey I'm back from work. I spent some time catching up on this thread, and I would like to give the few reads I have right now. I think it's safe to say that FirmTofu and ShiaoPi are not associated. I say this because FirmTofu is strongly going on ShiaoPi. If those two were of the same mafia faction, using bussing as a strategy is pointless since we have two mafia factions. All that's gonna happen is one being lynched tonight and the other the next night. Because of this, I'm going to assume they are not associated. Between FirmTofu and ShiaoPi, I like FirmTofu a lot more. Now that he's under a lot of pressure, instead of spending all his efforts explaining himself, he's trying to find better scum targets. He posted some good reads on ShiaoPi and myself. If FirmTofu goes after some of the really good players here, that would really show me he's town, because mafia would probably try to redirect the lynch onto the easiest targets. So I think there's still a good chance FirmTofu will flip scum, but overall, his last few pages still gave me better confidence. ##Unvote My strongest townread right now are on Koshi and austin. I think Koshi may be town because of the way he's playing. If he were mafia, after almost getting lynched the first day, the natural response would be to compensate by looking overly town. Looking through his filter, he's actually playing similarly to D1. I don't see any longposts, or tunneling, or strong reads on people. It's as if he doesn't need to prove that he's town. This reads pretty town to me. I think austin is town just because he's being very active right now without any obligation. Whoever the other replacement is still hasn't really been active yet, and there are a couple lurkers, so if he posts very little, he still wouldn't risk being lynched or shot. Additionally, he seems very caught up in the thread. If I were mafia, I would probably skim through pages at most, and tell people that I'm catching up, just so nobody expects me to do much. I think another person that looks kinda scummy to me is VayneAuthority. His last few posts were just complaining about lurkers and lack of contribution, and also a couple images. I think that if a town wanted more activity and information, he would start being more active himself, and pressure people to give information. Merely complaining about people lurking, or the general lack of activity in this thread doesn't actually make things better, plus, it also demoralizes townies. It really sets an alarm off for me when he says that he's "fine just chillin' until we lose". I think he's saying these things because he's mafia, and he's trying to give us an excuse to let him be passive. ##Vote VayneAuthority On October 04 2013 13:05 Chairman Ray wrote: Some in thread reasons, but again bolstered by "oh yeah but he might be town except even if he's town we should lynch him anyway."Alright, I just read through some stuff again, and I think I agree with some of Pandain's analysis. It's pretty clear to me now that VA is the best target to lynch today. VA persisted to do everything that I criticized him of earlier on. Plus, he also called out WoS a couple times for using ad hom. I think someone with VA's personality would be completely impervious to any sort of ad hom, and I think it's another way to redirect the discussion onto something else - a strategy that he is quite good at. So my scumread on VA is stronger now than before. However there is still the possibility that VA is town though, and everything we've seen so far is exactly how he plays. But even in this scenario, we should still lynch VA. The reason is because we should not allow town to intentionally play very scummy and very unproductive. What if VA gets scum in a future game? What if nobody lynches him just because they can't read him? What is he going to contribute to town? We probably shouldn't let his playstyle be allowed to foster, so I'm gonna put my vote on him instead of FT. ##unvote ##Vote: VayneAuthority Compare them to the two other games, where he has some shorter suspicions, posts about THIS GUY IS MAFIA BECAUSE X, THE END, NO MORE READS, and it looks a little scummier. He may have been told not to be a sneaky snake, but his posts are different in structure and in...objective here. Rarely just scumreads/scumhunting, and again, super prepackaged. Talk to me about how there being two scum teams this game could be a fly in the ointment as far as this is concerned. I've been over this in my own head and it doesn't seem you have considered it.. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
There is MUCH more potential for connections and weird scum interplay this game, and it seems CR likes tackling that stuff. I wanna hear what you think of that austin. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
You really don't find 'I WANT TO SAVE PALMAR' a glaring fucking statement of him not being on the same team as Palmar? If you honestly think that a newbie is going to play a game with experienced scumteam members and not only NOT be fucking paranoid as all hell about revealing anything related to his team, but also not check his posting and plan with his scumteam before doing it, I don't know what to say to you. You're all worried about how 'constructed' all of CR's posting is. Do you think Palmar would have been ok with CR stating in thread I WANNA SAVE YOU? So ridiculous that I even need to explain this. I'm out for now. May or may not be around at deadline. If I die (doubtful as all hell): Austin/Oats first. Maybe Pandain/VA. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 06 2013 02:59 s0Lstice wrote: Two scumteams can mess with some of his association-hunting from last game, except only between teams. Effectively, there are two newbie-size-game scumteams here, so if he's hunting for associations in a 3 man team he can also do it here.Talk to me about how there being two scum teams this game could be a fly in the ointment as far as this is concerned. I've been over this in my own head and it doesn't seem you have considered it.. Otherwise, I'll be honest, I don't know what you're getting at. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
oats/cc/austin all good lynches | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:02 WaveofShadow wrote: No, I don't find "I want to save Palmar" in the same post as "Palmar might be town or might be scum" and "I am cool lynching these people but think Palmar provides the least information if lynched" to be a "glaring fucking statement" of not-on-the-same-teaminess. Nope nope nope.You have been making way too many behavioural assumptions and associations this game. You really don't find 'I WANT TO SAVE PALMAR' a glaring fucking statement of him not being on the same team as Palmar? If you honestly think that a newbie is going to play a game with experienced scumteam members and not only NOT be fucking paranoid as all hell about revealing anything related to his team, but also not check his posting and plan with his scumteam before doing it, I don't know what to say to you. You're all worried about how 'constructed' all of CR's posting is. Do you think Palmar would have been ok with CR stating in thread I WANNA SAVE YOU? So ridiculous that I even need to explain this. I'm out for now. May or may not be around at deadline. If I die (doubtful as all hell): Austin/Oats first. Maybe Pandain/VA. Don't know about newbie in game with experienced scumteam. I played my first scum game with HiroPro, and he did a little coaching but mainly yelling at me not to do dumb stuff and pointing out when I did. I'm not experienced yet from that side of things, but we did a little coaching of Felkyr who had never been scum before when we were in Aperture 3. He checked a good bit and we coached a decent amount. I don't think that's across-the-board, and this is also someone who, based on what I've heard, has also played IRL mafia and maybe a couple times on another forum? Wave you silly. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:09 s0Lstice wrote: First sentence troof. Second sentence I can understand that, but a lot of that seems to be a disagreement with my reads and I think how I'm pushing them. What if they turn out to be correct?yea well we haven't been on the same page much since the very start when we both replaced in. the way you treated me looked town but thats about all the warm fuzzies you've given me. oats/cc/austin all good lynches Third sentence very sadface. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:17 austinmcc wrote: Third sentence not entirely sadface. I'd just look elsewhere first. elsewhere where? there is just not enough room for 4 more mafia amongst my current set of reads. rationalizing your weird behavior with those constraints is legitimizing my suspicions of you. I don't really think I'm just being paranoid now. This is the epitome of a feels read. I think CR is town, too. Doubt over. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:34 s0Lstice wrote: Elsewhere like CR and WoS. Oats not awful, but an option. Cheese not awful, but an option. Not sure where they rank right now in relation to VA, still think pandain looks townie for yesterday. I assume I can't add you to your list, not sure where you rank right at the moment.elsewhere where? there is just not enough room for 4 more mafia amongst my current set of reads. rationalizing your weird behavior with those constraints is legitimizing my suspicions of you. I don't really think I'm just being paranoid now. This is the epitome of a feels read. I think CR is town, too. Doubt over. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:36 austinmcc wrote: Elsewhere like CR and WoS. Oats not awful, but an option. Cheese not awful, but an option. Not sure where they rank right now in relation to VA, still think pandain looks townie for yesterday. I assume I can't add you to your list, not sure where you rank right at the moment. Can you just tell me flat out if WoS is mafia or not? I feel like you've done everything short of that. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On October 06 2013 03:36 austinmcc wrote: Elsewhere like CR and WoS. Oats not awful, but an option. Cheese not awful, but an option. Not sure where they rank right now in relation to VA, still think pandain looks townie for yesterday. I assume I can't add you to your list, not sure where you rank right at the moment. this is also pretty interesting considering you have a lot more to go off of now. so I am null? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I eliminate myself. Pandain I eliminate Pandain, you can see why in my filter, but overall it's the effort and the push just to try and save a townie. IF VA flips mafia, look at Pandain and see whether you think he's town or bussing, but I think anyone who pushes super hard to lynch Pandain without knowing whether VA is mafia or not is RIDIKKEROUS/mafia. + Show Spoiler + Anyone who pushes Pandain RIGHT NOW is saying he's mafia, putting on a big show, trying to get town points for saving a townie (WITHIN THIS GAME). But here's the thing, what they're NOT saying is that he tried to push the lynch on VA. He didn't just say "Don't lynch FT." He ALSO said "lynch VA." THIS IS IMPORTANT. Anyone who doesn't mention this, doesn't factor this in, isn't really viewing Pandain fully. Just consider this, would your read on Pandain change based on VA's flip? If so, if you think Pandain fits the full team remaining, then VA flipping scum would mean Pandain probably HARD bussing VA, actively pushing him for lynch. I don't like that scenario. So more than just generally thinking Pandain is town for his D3 play, I think that a push on Pandain is crappy/somewhat suspicious if people aren't looking at VA as well. ESPECIALLY anyone scummy on VA but also pushing Pandain, if anyone fits that bill (I haven't checked right now), then they are VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY SCUMMY. Look at all those very-s. So for me, Pandain. Great. Now we're down to 2/4. Oats Oats is sitting on his ass doing next-to-nothing. He's EITHER mafia or sweet sweet mislynch material. But the line between the two is thin. Both sides are legitimate. Don't lynch him tomorrow, please please please. I'm assuming at this point that, either way, he doesn't redeem himself. I both still have him on the slightly townie side of the line because of his posting AND think that if you ask yourself, WWMD, oats is a prime prime prime mislynch target. Make them work for a mislynch. Pull the rug out, make them find someone else, someone that hasn't been primed with bits and bits of suspicion and who can be argued about. It's way too easy to call oats mafia right now. IF oats is town, force mafia to work at getting someone else lynched. If he's mafia, there are 4 of em, find another on. Oats too cheery and too playful with Palmar on D1 to be on that team. Cheesecake's post was BUTT because IF oats is town, that's exactly what mafia needs to do. Point to all the times oats utters the word "Palmar", without adding any context, and without realizing that HOLY CRAP THAT'S A LOT OF MENTIONS AND A LOT OF DIRECT ASSOCIATION AND MAYBE THIS IS NOT A TEAM. I think it's low-hanging fruit that, when picked, tastes like poopoo fruit. And cheesecake picked that poopoo fruit and tried to feed it to you. Don't eat the poopoo fruit. Oats probably town, maybe mafia, but overall just not what should happen TOMORROW, and not on Palmar's team. If ANYTHING, oats's posts on D1 if he's mafia show he's other team, because of how he's goading Palmar and rayn into flinging shit at each other. Neither on his team, he doesn't care, lynch either of em or get em to argue, no skin off his back. Just keep fanning the flames between em and enjoy. If he's mafia, he's non-Palmar. And really, he's got some townie-minded posts, he says throwaway crap like this: On October 05 2013 03:30 Oatsmaster wrote: Yo! Im not scum. I Still kinda wanna lynch CR for being so totally clean with his posts and saying a lotta weird shit inside. he's town on my list. *********HEY HEY IF I DIE AND THEN OATS DIES AND HE IS TOWN YOU NEED TO REMEMBER THIS POST. OATS, IF TOWN, = EASY MISLYNCH. LOOK FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN START PUSHING HIM AND MAYBE AVOIDING OTHER PEOPLE YOU'VE SEEN FLIP MAFIA************ Down to 1/4 WoS Everyone is reading his posts overnight and going "So town." Yeah, they look townie. But he's played an entire game, not just tonight. Look at his Palmar read. Look at his actions right before the Palmar lynch. He can't read Palmar. Over and over and over can't read can't read. Except he DOES have these weak leanings, when really pushed he'll say think town, thought town now a little scummier, etc. etc. It's not that he can't read Palmar, it's a mix of "I'm not good at Palmar, but here's what I think, but maybe I'm wrong, who knows, not gonna bother, etc. etc. etc." It's a scummy way of dealing with a read on Palmar. And AT lynch time, he's calling Palmar scum but trying to shunt the lynch away. Again, I don't care how townie he looks right now. That is scummy scummyumpkins. However, here's the deal. I like him way more as THIRD SCUM than I do as other team. I think? So DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF I DIE. If he's not third scum, he suddenly looks a good bit less scummy (I think!? Other team still probably doesn't want Palmar lynched if they can help it). Don't go for him tomorrow. If you find third scum, re-evaluate. Make him keep working. CR Oh yeah lynch this dude tomorrow. He's not been newbie. He's been near useless, despite getting lynched for contributions in other game that people found scummy. His posts all avoid direct scumhunting. He never casually posts. Lynch this dude. Lynch him. I RAN OUT OF TIME BOLLOCKS. If Oats town, cheese scum. That one post does it. SOME OTHER PEOPLE ARE ALSO SCUM THIS POST SUCKS SO MUCH AS A LAST MINUTE POST WTF | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38797 Posts
This also means that my shot on Oats doesnt have that much value because the possible RB on me. Pandain Solstice look very scummy to me. Oats as well . | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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