Thug Life Mini Mafia - Page 180

On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote:
Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up.

I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia.

Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia.

Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG.

Just for now
##Vote: Koshi

I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG.

On September 30 2013 07:43 Chairman Ray wrote:
I've been looking over the thread a bit, especially at the BH kill. It's possible that he got killed by both mafia, or just one mafia, or got shot by the police. However I don't think police would shoot someone on the first night, especially not BH. I would just narrow it down to one or both mafia teams shooting BH. If only one of them shot BH, then the other either did a drive by or got vested. I think we should try to determine if one of the scum teams did a drive by, because that would give us really good information going into day 3. If someone comes out and says they vested and it blocked a shot, we can confirm that neither of the scum teams have 2 KP.

As for killing BH, from reading the thread, I think BH was killed by someone who had some sort of relation to him. Most of BH's posts were about the whole RNG thing. If I was scum, I wouldn't shoot BH in hopes that he wastes more time on d2. This leads me to believe that the scum team that shot BH wasn't just 3 lurkers, and at least one of them had to have some strong interaction with BH. So I think there are three possible motives:

1. BH was shot because he was strongly pushing against FT and this kill was to protect FT. This kill also really puts the spotlight on FT, but at the same time that's also a reason scum could use to make FT seem innocent. In the end, it becomes an endless chain or circular logic that we can't really look into. The simplest solution is that this kill really benefited FT, and I think FT looks scummy because of it.

2. BH was shot so that a discussion can be made around FT, which creates a diversion from someone else who already looks kinda scummy. If this were true, it would also be consistent with my read that the scum team isn't 3 lurkers with no relation to BH. I would need to read more into the thread to see who could be scum in this case.

3. Near the end, BH was giving a strong townread on palmer. Palmer was active at this point. BH might have been killed so to give his townread on palmer more credibility. This gives Palmer an incentive to kill BH if he was scum. However, looking through his filter, I actually think Palmer is quite town, so I dunno here.

One other thing I am willing to gamble on is that Palmer and FirmTofu cannot be in the same scum team. Killing BH would draw way too much unnecessary attention on them, and also it would be really weird for them to kill BH when he's giving a scumread on one of them and a townread on the other. I don't think they would kill BH even to be meta.

Right now I'm going to be looking more into FT. However, I don't want to vote him this early on simply because he's the easiest target, and if he flips town, it will not put us in a good position.

On September 30 2013 08:38 Chairman Ray wrote:
Looking through filters, I am a bit concerned about ShiaoPi. He was pretty active on D1, but most of his activity was just one liners to get people to go through with the RNG lynch and a couple short posts shrugging off FT analysis as lynchbait. He's obviously active, and has a lot of mafia experience, so I would expect a lot more analysis or reads coming from him (unless this is what he does every game). I'm liking the FT lynch a lot more now, because it may tell us something about ShiaoPi.

On October 01 2013 14:00 Chairman Ray wrote:
Hey I'm back from work. I spent some time catching up on this thread, and I would like to give the few reads I have right now.

I think it's safe to say that FirmTofu and ShiaoPi are not associated. I say this because FirmTofu is strongly going on ShiaoPi. If those two were of the same mafia faction, using bussing as a strategy is pointless since we have two mafia factions. All that's gonna happen is one being lynched tonight and the other the next night. Because of this, I'm going to assume they are not associated.

Between FirmTofu and ShiaoPi, I like FirmTofu a lot more. Now that he's under a lot of pressure, instead of spending all his efforts explaining himself, he's trying to find better scum targets. He posted some good reads on ShiaoPi and myself. If FirmTofu goes after some of the really good players here, that would really show me he's town, because mafia would probably try to redirect the lynch onto the easiest targets. So I think there's still a good chance FirmTofu will flip scum, but overall, his last few pages still gave me better confidence. ##Unvote

My strongest townread right now are on Koshi and austin. I think Koshi may be town because of the way he's playing. If he were mafia, after almost getting lynched the first day, the natural response would be to compensate by looking overly town. Looking through his filter, he's actually playing similarly to D1. I don't see any longposts, or tunneling, or strong reads on people. It's as if he doesn't need to prove that he's town. This reads pretty town to me.

I think austin is town just because he's being very active right now without any obligation. Whoever the other replacement is still hasn't really been active yet, and there are a couple lurkers, so if he posts very little, he still wouldn't risk being lynched or shot. Additionally, he seems very caught up in the thread. If I were mafia, I would probably skim through pages at most, and tell people that I'm catching up, just so nobody expects me to do much.

I think another person that looks kinda scummy to me is VayneAuthority. His last few posts were just complaining about lurkers and lack of contribution, and also a couple images. I think that if a town wanted more activity and information, he would start being more active himself, and pressure people to give information. Merely complaining about people lurking, or the general lack of activity in this thread doesn't actually make things better, plus, it also demoralizes townies. It really sets an alarm off for me when he says that he's "fine just chillin' until we lose". I think he's saying these things because he's mafia, and he's trying to give us an excuse to let him be passive.

##Vote VayneAuthority

On October 04 2013 13:05 Chairman Ray wrote:
Alright, I just read through some stuff again, and I think I agree with some of Pandain's analysis. It's pretty clear to me now that VA is the best target to lynch today. VA persisted to do everything that I criticized him of earlier on. Plus, he also called out WoS a couple times for using ad hom. I think someone with VA's personality would be completely impervious to any sort of ad hom, and I think it's another way to redirect the discussion onto something else - a strategy that he is quite good at. So my scumread on VA is stronger now than before.

However there is still the possibility that VA is town though, and everything we've seen so far is exactly how he plays. But even in this scenario, we should still lynch VA. The reason is because we should not allow town to intentionally play very scummy and very unproductive. What if VA gets scum in a future game? What if nobody lynches him just because they can't read him? What is he going to contribute to town? We probably shouldn't let his playstyle be allowed to foster, so I'm gonna put my vote on him instead of FT.

##unvote
##Vote: VayneAuthority