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Why are you avoiding the question, it's a very simple one, here:
Which I answered with more than just yes or no, cause the way you put it is construed to force out a yes. So I have presented arguments that show that whichever the answer is, it's not alignment indicative. He said he can read a dude well, but didn't post a read on that dude but on other reads. I don't see how that's something exclusively scum would do.
"It would have been *much* easier for scum to fakeclaim miller in this situation than I thought, and I don't see how this isn't obvious from a town perspective." - It is much harder to claim miller when we take account the role-names
No, if the town miller claims first the scum miller can simply say the other name, and in all of this you supposed that marv would be the town miller, as shown by the quote where you contradict yourself, coz you expected that the miller claiming after him WOULD HAVE TO BE scum.
As last out, scum can always argue that there are two millers. In the end, you mention all this shit afterwards just to justify your instatownread on marv which was so scummy. You can beat this to death with all your pre-game assumptions you claim to have had about millers, but you swallowing marv's claim and then increasingly adding reasons to it when the game progressed tells a whole other story.
" Add to that Vivax's case, where he points out that rayn accepts the existence of a miller at face value" - I never did so. I said "scum won't fakeclaim miller unless dumb, marv is not dumb". I did not accep the existance of a miller at face value. When marv claimed miller i accepted that he is town at face value.
This is so dumb, when you accepted marv being town at face value you also accepted the existence of a miller at face value, cause the alternative was no miller and marv scum, which you never considered cause you knew he was town.
Even when marv tells you that he fakeclaimed miller before, you kept treating him as confirmed town.
Marv is not dumb enough to fakeclaim miller you say, but he tells you he did it in another game and you still don't question it at all.
Later you add up the justification that it's dumber in this game cause of miller names, even when you say that the guy after marv would have to claim his name first, effectively showing that you still expected marv to be the town miller among the two.
On June 30 2013 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Cool. If nobody counterclaims the next step is that the third party (if here) is going to protect you.
On June 30 2013 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv, now that i can be sure that you are town and i do actually have to find scum instead of bullshitting around, let's work together and find all the mafia on D1. Deal?
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WaveofShadow:
Useless. Even says he will be useless. Why not say something useful instead? Continues being useless, like having voted Stutters and what's the follow up? He does not try to find out his scumbuddies, he doesn't question him in any way. Actually, he does not question anyone in any way. If JarJar is somehow town WoS is sure scum by trying to avoid attention after called out. Who is scum WoS and why? What are your thoughts on Vivax/JarJar/Fuba?
Sick case. Lynching people for being useless after having claimed to be busy.
I have a better idea, we lynch you.
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There are 11 townie names.
Since people argue there can't be two millers, we take away one name.
I would also tentatively remove a blue role.
That leaves 9 townies with 9 different names, assuming no Landa or people with same names.
A mass claim could be pretty strong under these assumptions.
If scum got fake PM's, then they will have the same name as some other townie.
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I bet Rayn would wet his pants if he had to claim his name.
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Which side gets the best of it?
Do you expect to get counterclaimed?
I'd leave such a plan for later cause we have to protect the blues. It would actually be pretty stupid to do it while they are alive. But it's a worthy strategy for after their death.
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I'll have to agree with you on one thing Rayn.
WoS seems to completely lack suspicion in his filter, being laid back and uninvolved is usually a scum trait.
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Specifically, I don't like this post about Vayne, it feels like he talks a lot about something which is completely irrelevant to finding scum. Arguing about the definition of lynch baits and Vayne's meta was not something really relevant at the stage where he wrote that:
On June 30 2013 20:07 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 19:54 Lazermonkey wrote:On June 30 2013 19:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Seriously everyone. Think about it yourself:
Would you claim miller 5 minutes into the game as mafia? What would you gain by doing so?
If someone gives me a reasonable answer to this question i promise to reconsider my read on marv. Don't make it sound like Marv had to think everything through in just 5 minutes because that's just not true. It's not like its impossible to plan that if you roll mafia in a game, you want to fake claim miller. What do I know, maybe he even requested mafia? I'm not sure how relevant that is. (Does anyone know if iGrok is the type of host to give requests rather than RNG?) As for Vayne, there's not a great deal to say. Played here in one of the first games on the site, disappears and plays on Mafiascum for a while (I think?). Comes back, does decently in newbie games, then causes a whole bunch of shit when playing with the big boys because his playstyle doesn't fit with how we play on TL. He often talks big about how he doesn't do much analysis on the first day but then gets criticized when his play doesn't pick up on subsequent days. Is lynchbait in a lot of his town games and some of his play is questionable. His sole game as mafia was with me and he did really well. Trying to recognize someone as lynchbait worries me a little, Lazer. It becomes one of those WIFOM things where we don't know: a) Are you targeting him because he is lynchbait and you get a pass on that if he flips green? b) Are you targeting him because he looks scummy to you? This was an issue with jaybrundage in Roulette mini. His play on the lynchbait thing was different in that he self-acknowledged as lynchbait at the start of the game (which I found scummy) and said anyone who goes after him as such was scummy. Turned out he was scum, but me and mostly everyone else ended up not doing much suspecting of him throughout the game because despite saying he was lynchbait, he didn't act as such. That honestly should have set off alarms for me and everyone else much earlier. This may seem off-topic but in conclusion my stance on it is lynchbait or not, if he's not actively disruptive to town play, and not acting/playing scummy, then I have no reason to lynch him currently. I had talked in an earlier obs QT about the idea of policy lynching because Vayne ends up lynchbait a lot and doesn't play when asked a lot, but that doesn't seem to be the case this game as I mentioned to him, plus I don't think I have the pull/balls to carry off a straight policy lynch.
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On July 02 2013 00:25 JarJarDrinks wrote:
I vote yes to mass claim. We will definately get counterclaims, meaning we choose a pair and @ worst get a 50/50 shot.
It also means that scum can't shoot into anyone that they claim giving the PRs a bit more power @ night.
You think it's no problem if we out cop/veteran/vigilante or whatever?
I think it is.
Cop will get roleblocked or shot.
Veteran will get roleblocked and shot.
Vigilante becomes foreseeable.
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If the host guarantees that there is only one instance of each name though then it's worth the risk.
But most certainly he won't comment on something that is potentially gamebreaking.
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Btw it's 12 townie names, I miscounted.
Miller has claimed. Assuming town.
Leaves 11 names for 8 townies, assuming no Landa.
Take away a blue role and a miller, you have 9 for 8.
Hence, scum has 1 name for fakeclaim.
Gives us the chance to snatch 2 scum.
I suggest we let people claim selectively. Hence I won't claim cause I'm super townie. If a guy claims the same name as I have I'll counterclaim him though.
I guess we let the guy set for lynch claim and if he doesn't get counterclaimed we proceed to the next scummiest guy.
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Remember that posting your full role PM has been forbidden though. We don't want modkills from this 
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Well it's not really clear from that post.
Initially iGrok wanted us to have the characters' names, it was foreseeable that we could claim them.
Dandel's blooper only changed the flavour of the PM's.
But yeah, ultimately it's up to the host.
It's not nice if he'd suddenly change the rules but it's also kinda hard for scum if they can be catched that way.
We should probably wait and see what Grok has to say to that.
Btw I suggest looking at people who felt certain Jar Jar was town when he appeared to be the furthest thing from it, I'm of the opinion that scum did not bus Jar Jar because they felt confident they could get Rayne
This is bs though. There are 3 scum, unless he assumes that me fuba and Oats are all scum then it doesn't add up (fuba didn't even vote in the voting thread I think).
Overall, there has been more pressure on the JJ wagon iirc, I think I'll have to take a closer look at gumshoe cause what he just wrote is quite suspicious.
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On July 02 2013 01:16 VayneAuthority wrote:
can we agree collectively as a game to not claim roles in this open setup? It's pretty broken and I didn't sign up for a lets all claim and lynch at 50/50 game.
With that said I am mainly looking at lazer/WoS now.
Lazer's posting has been fairly more townie as of recently but the fact that he OMGUS'd me from my accusations is a bit alarming when he gave very little reasoning. It seems like he's trying to keep himself on the good side of most of the people in the game so instead of scum hunting he just goes right back at the accuser.
As for WoS I am not really a fan of what he's done so far, he has been very passive yet exceedingly angry which is somewhat how he played in Les Mis. The fact that he says I am playing differently and doesn't know what to make of it leads me to believe that he knows I am town somehow, might have been a scumslip.
What did you find fairly townie about lazer's posting?
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On July 02 2013 01:23 Stutters695 wrote:My vote on JJD was a straight sheep, I liked his case. I didn't have time to type up a case last night but this post is why I'd be ok seeing Fuba hang. Show nested quote +On July 01 2013 07:00 mkfuba07 wrote:
Oh wow. I wake up and there's over 100 more posts. Apologies in advance for the giant post. A lot has happened. Some stream of consciousness thoughts as I catch up:
Vayne entering the thread with thread analysis on D1 was as surprising for me as it appears it was for WoS XD I don't see the scumminess from Lazer's 6th post (Is it this one? "Marv, which game were you fake claiming miller?"), so could you explain it Vayne?
Oats's vote on rayn was interesting, because I didn't think of rayn's actions from that persepective. The thing is, though, rayn had thought the situation through. The way oats presents it is as though rayn simply saw marv claim miller, and accepted it as true. Then went on to buddy him. This is clearly not what happened.
s0Lstice's first post was interesting (I'm gonna end up saying "interesting" a lot. Too tired at the moment to not be repetitive). First of all, I don't see how that progression indicates Stutters as scum. I found him most suspicious for the aggression so early, not that his reasoning was flawed regarding scum and millers. It's also pretty weird that s0L says Lazer is suspicious for spending so much time thinking about the miller claim when he just gave a town read to rayn, who has apparently spent just as much time doing so. s0L did mention Vivax, who I failed to comment on earlier. The passive shit flinging is something I'd missed, but it seems legit. Why even mention marv being less active so far when he mentioned little more than an hour before that he was going to be pretty inactive for a while? The self-conscious bit I pretty much ignored, since I'm that way every time I post, but I'm keeping the first point in mind.
Vivax's first post after returning actually had a really good point in it. Not that what marv did was scummy, but that the miller claim definitely can't be taken as a town tell now. Rayn followed that post with this: "No it's not. Fakeclaiming miller 5min into the game is dumb and unnecessary as scum and if someone was dumb enough to fakeclaim after marv we had a 50% chance to right out catch them by having them post the role PM first." I'm starting to see what oats was getting at, now. Rayn seems incapable of believing marv is scum, even though it's been shown that the claim is unreliable. Like, in that quote, while admitting the possibility of a fakeclaim, he refuses to believe it could be marv lying.
Lazermonkey: My experience with Vayne is that I can't read him for shit. Well, I mean, I guess I kind of could early on in Roulette, when I found he had "scum potential, but was not necessarily scummy". I'd definitely trust WoS's analysis of Vayne's scum play, especially if Vayne doesn't contest it himself (unless they're both scum... so take that with a grain of salt).
Vivax: "I'm really curious to see which name marv will claim." Why will that actually matter at this point?
Caught up~~
Man, you guys post a lot.
So, current thoughts. Oats is acting almost exactly like he was as town in Roulette. The difference is his approach to pushing his lynch, which seems more persuasive, as opposed to commanding. I think he mentioned at the end of Roulette that he was going to work on that, and his play this game is consistent with that. He's probably my strongest townread at the moment.
Vayne hasn't actually said all that much. I appreciated his first post, then he kind of disappeared. Not much to say. Would still like to know what's so scummy about that Lazer post.
Stutters: Not entirely sure what to think. His explanation for the aggression is pretty much a null tell. He does seem to be posting more than I remember, but the content is mostly defending himself. He also says we should discuss other players, but doesn't suggest any himself. Still very "vayne from roulette"-y for me.
Vivax: I like what he's said about rayn, wasn't impressed by marv's supposed scumminess for not posting his full role PM. That assumes that town marv would have naturally posted his role PM when claiming miller, something that I don't think is a natural inclination. The fact that he went into Carnival Cruise and found evidence of rayn's previous reactions to miller claims gives him some townie points. Overall, slight town, though he's apparently thinking about marv a lot, which I find strange given that marv hasn't really been here at all.
marv: Come back to us, dear. ^^
rayn: After Vivax's marv post, I expected rayn to be less insistent on him being confirmed town. It would have been *much* easier for scum to fakeclaim miller in this situation than I thought, and I don't see how this isn't obvious from a town perspective. Add to that Vivax's case, where he points out that rayn accepts the existence of a miller at face value, and I'm pretty convinced. He's far too eager to accept the claim as truth, when it should now have little effect on the mind of a townie. My only reluctance to vote for him is his activity level, which I tend to associate with town.
##Vote: raynpelikoneet
Everyone else is gonna need a filter dive, and I'm going to have to reread the posts I read while writing this, but I feel comfortable with my The first half is just his observations vote where it is. First, remember after the post Rayne jumped on me for he said I reminded him of Vayne in Roulette (scummy but town by PoE to pretty much everyone in the thread if you haven't read it). First half is all summaries, meaningless since anyone reading the thread would know those events. Probably null, maybe slightly scummy. His point on Oats is decent, and pretty much how I feel, nothing wrong there. Vayne: null, nothing of value except a question that he's never here to follow up on. Me: Says my actions are null to scummy but I remind him of a townie from the last game we played? Why is this Fuba? Scared to take a stance? Vivax: only slight town yet he has nothing bad to say about him. Why only slight town? Again not very committal. Marv: useless fluff Rayne: Essentially agrees with Vivax on who is scum and why yet neglects any other posts from Rayn to show a scum mindset or any individual thought.
Essentially his entire post is trying to cover up the fact that all he is doing is agreeing with Vivax. Where is your usual analysis Fuba?
Don't you think that post is analysis?
Why would scum try to cover up that they're agreeing with me? Is it dangerous for them to agree with me?
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On July 02 2013 01:30 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 01:25 Vivax wrote:On July 02 2013 01:16 VayneAuthority wrote:
can we agree collectively as a game to not claim roles in this open setup? It's pretty broken and I didn't sign up for a lets all claim and lynch at 50/50 game.
With that said I am mainly looking at lazer/WoS now.
Lazer's posting has been fairly more townie as of recently but the fact that he OMGUS'd me from my accusations is a bit alarming when he gave very little reasoning. It seems like he's trying to keep himself on the good side of most of the people in the game so instead of scum hunting he just goes right back at the accuser.
As for WoS I am not really a fan of what he's done so far, he has been very passive yet exceedingly angry which is somewhat how he played in Les Mis. The fact that he says I am playing differently and doesn't know what to make of it leads me to believe that he knows I am town somehow, might have been a scumslip. What did you find fairly townie about lazer's posting? The fact that he's going out of his way to make other reads and cases when there is very little reason to do as he has little pressure. He's pretty half and half for me now, because on the other side he is ready to sheep a JJD lynch off of 1 post and keeps bringing me up as a scum read even though he has given little reason as to why or how. It reminds me of jaybrundage in roulette when I pretty much told the thread he was getting ready to mislynch me the following day. Just seems like he is keeping that in his back pocket for later. Look guys I have been saying he was scum the whole game! *votes*
Lazer is a quite good scum player when it comes to looking active and townie. He should always be kept under good scrutiny.
Check Noir Mini Mafia.
I have that Deutsch feeling about him too.
Fine explanation from you so far, but I have issues with your activity, I am used to you being more constantly in the thread.
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Vayne, fuba, can you give me your updated opinion on stutters?
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On July 02 2013 01:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The point is Fuba, if i had been miller i would have done just what marv did, i would have not claimed my role name in case some scum wants to claim miller aswell. If i was scum i would never ever claim miller in fear of that someone claims and i have to contest them in "who tells their rolename first" which could result in 50% outright chance of me being outed.
The way marv claimed makes perfect sense to me if he is town. The way marv claimed makes zero sense to me as scum, because i would never myself claim as scum, and that's why i think marv is town.
40 % chance of there being counterclaimed.
50 % chance of having to say your name last and picking the one you want.
40/100 * 50/100 = 2000 /10000 = 1/5 chance of the claim failing like you say.
If anything the other rolename makes it easier coz you can claim to be the other miller.
Fact of the matter, marv told you he fakeclaimed in another game. You didn't care.
Fact of the matter, you were hostile towards miller claims in Roulette.
And you want to tell us that you were acting all differently than in Roulette just cause here you can have two different millers with two different names?
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On July 02 2013 02:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:
'm going to take a relook into Lazer if i am able to when i get back, because i just realized something. scum have fucking 2 KP.
Wat wat.
I don't see ANYTHING in the OP written about scum KP.
Where did you get that information?
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Nevermind saw it now in the spoilers
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I'm taking a step back from my Rayn scumread.
While I feel that what he did after the claim was scummy, I feel he is so stubborn in his defense that I'll rather judge him by the coming play, being confident that he will stay active.
But mostly I like that he announced he'd take a closer look at LM, and WoS looks like a good lynch to me as well, and I feel that he is compatible with a scum Lazer given the nature of Lazer's comments on WoS.
Hence, today I'm going to vote for Lazer or Wos probably. But I need to reread and see which one is probably the better call. I'm still kinda suspicious of stutters for his too-careful-for-my-taste posts in regards to Rayn but he has been fairly active lately.
##Unvote
@ Stutters
What's your opinion on a WoS/Lazer lynch?
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EPT
