Newbie Mini Mafia XIX - Page 24

On July 03 2012 01:41 Myles wrote:
@Prom
If I was DT I would have check Hopeless or myself. We were taking the most heat from people last night and I think it makes sense to be able to confirm/deny the accusations as early as possible. There's too many lurkers to try and take a chance on them, and I'm not sure the heat on Intact started early enough to make a difference. Fencar would be another good choice, but over the night he had also kind of fallen below the radar like Bob due to all the FoS JH was doing, and his scummyness comes more from his posting style than actual scummy stuff he's said(until now at least).

And I know it's possible we don't have a watcher, but given that this is a newb game I would hope the deck didn't get completely stacked against us - that seems like a pretty critical role right under DT and medic. And as much as you and JH were working well together, he was definitely the lead and seemed would be the #1 target for the medic, watcher, and pbu's - assuming we have the first 2. You would have been second, imo, but a pretty clear 2nd.

Fencar dropping out doesn't remove any of my suspicion, either. He did a poor job defending himself, has bandwagoned both votes, then when questions keep coming(as I would think anyone who isn't Prom, and maybe Umlaut, should expect) decides that's he done enough to make up for his initial mistake(which I would argue put him under less suspicion than me or Hopeless, he just kept a lot of the same activities that had people eyeing him before) and is over it. It's not conclusive, but nothing there tells me he is a fed up townsperson who did everything they could to help out.

On July 03 2012 02:00 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Okay...

I've got to give the Fencar situation some thought, but regardless of how we decide to read his resignation, I think the most reasonable course to take for now is to consider other possibilities. If there's a chance that he'll be modkilled, then we should be considering other candidates with the intention of returning to his case on day 3 if he is still alive then.

My leaning for tonight's lynch would be Intact, then, based on my current reads. Playing inactive is a less risky role than joining more actively in discussion, which leads me to believe that Intact is the most likely of the three to have an ability. Could some of the rest of you take a look at my case on him?

On July 03 2012 02:01 sciberbia wrote:
Hi guys - just got my role PM. I've barely been following the game and I'm at work atm, but I'll try to read the whole thread tonight. Gonna try to start contributing as soon as possible.

On July 03 2012 02:02 Hopeless1der wrote:
@Prom - If I was DT, I would not have investigated bob due to lurkyness. I would not have investigated fencar and intact due to scummyness/bandwagon suspicions. I would not have investigated you or JH for the strong town vibe you gave off.
Since Anacletus was the mislynched, I'd have gone after someone who voted for him hoping to find scum. That leaves Blind, iamperfection and Myles. I would probably have gone after Myles for pretty much the same reasons he noted in his post above.
iamperfection is still a null read for me, which effectively makes him town since I now have scum reads. BLiND-RawR would have been a close second, and I may well have pmed him as my choice before I developed a scum read on him.


Now that we know Fencar's expiration date, do we try to lynch him today or hope he gets modkilled and if not, lynch tomorrow (This of course assumes we consider him the scummiest person). It seems that if we can pick up a free kill and have the chance to hit other scum, we should do that instead of getting hung up on the Fencar case.

To that end, I'd like to push the Intact case, as he's my strongest red read so far, besides Fencar.
Promethelax, who is your strongest read? I assume I'm up there, but a good townie like you wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, now would he?



Hi sciberbia! Not to put you on the spot, but monk didn't give us all the much info. I don't care if you essentially copy our arguments, but I'd like to get your input specifically on myself, Intact and Fencar as we're the scummiest looking players so far. Any further reads you have would be awesome too.

On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
The lurking PBU

There are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting.

There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play.

I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available:

iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going.

BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk.

Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town.

Which leaves us with:

Intact:

This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch.


I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it.

And then comes this brilliant observation:

Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie.

Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them.

The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help.

On June 29 2012 08:44 Intact wrote:


Im not claiming he is scum, I'm simply pointing out the observations I've made- And I felt like the ball had to get rolling.

On June 29 2012 21:37 Intact wrote:



My first guess was Myles, however he is no longer on top of the list(although I will keep an eye on him). I'm leaning mostly towards Analectus, his posts contain very little of value and seems more like a way to avoid being branded a lurker. And like I said before I have seen scum play that is similar to what JH and Analectus is doing.

On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus.

On July 01 2012 10:23 Intact wrote:
So I see that there is some doubt about me and my posting. I'll try adress that in a couple of hours when I wake up. Just got home from a nightclub so trying to make sense seems like a bad idea right now.

On July 02 2012 09:11 Intact wrote:
Sorry for my inactivity, internet died and It's quite annoying trying to write long texts from my phone. ISP says it will be fixed by tomorrow.

On July 03 2012 10:16 Intact wrote:
I've been on the phone with my isp all day, if stuff isnt working soon I will have to ask for replacement. Cant make any serious posts from my cellphone.

On July 02 2012 08:48 Hopeless1der wrote:
\/
INTACT:
/\






Intact is sure he's seen this before from scum in previous games...Except they both are dead after D1/N1 and both flipped town.

Following these posts, his next post is (in its entirety)



No discussion, no thoughts, just hopping on board.

After promethelax comes in to push his case on Fencer (which no one but me really took to), Intact sees this as a very suspicious move. Promethelax is attempting to flesh out multiple cases on day 1 instead of tunnelling one person, and Intact deems that scum behaviour because it might split the town and cause tension. On the other hand, Anacletus flipped town, so Promethelax had the right idea going after someone else.

He justifies his choice to stand by his vote with:


This is not true in the slightest and just screams scum to me. JH quickly picks up on it:

+ Show Spoiler +
That last line in the spoiler is the biggest point here. Intact is assuming that a lynch would reveal perfect information about who voted. That cant work since town must be involved in the mislynch, so how could you know with certainty who is scum and who is town? Unless you're scum, you cant possibly know after a D1 Lynch.

Finally, he is currently lurking after saying:


Maybe he's still hungover? Or maybe he's hoping no one calls him out so he can continue to lurk, post a vote with little to no thought (Seriously read his filter, he barely scratches the surface of suspecting someone), and get away scot-free again.