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On July 04 2012 01:39 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 01:24 BobTheLob wrote:On July 04 2012 00:29 iamperfection wrote:On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BLinD-Rawr I agree with a lot of the points you laid out here but i dont agree with the final conclusion. Blindy has been like several others lurking (myself included) The case that you put up against him not even close to how strong of an argument that you put out on bobthelob. This post in particular is the one that bothers me On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote:
Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking
People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive
Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them
Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue
Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above
AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either
Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong
Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know
That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up
Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower?
As you pointed out this is very wishy washy but also this only serves as attempt to confuse the town and drive us all against each other. He is effectivly saying " hey you know who scould be scum. Everybody" He could then still stay off to the sideline with his non commitment when the lynching dosent go the towns way. What do we really have on blindy to go on besides lurking. He has given limited reads like my fellow lurkers but of the reads he did give he gave one right one in thinking jingle was town. In my view Blind has been trying to help the town while bob had been trying to hurt us. Bolding that bit because I still think its true, most of my recent posts have been the same thing. Nobody has anything conclusive, it's all guesswork and assumptions. I've admitted that I lurked to much and have also made a point to try posting more, but even so it seems that just made people take more notice of me, Blind is still lurking a lot more than me but I seem to be taking a lot of the heat off of the people who we thought before were scummy, Intact, Hopeless ect. While I agree that Hopeless has made a good case for himself It shouldn't stop people from looking at him more closely. So look at him more closely and share your thoughts. If you're town you should be helping us scum hunt and not explaining how scum hunting is impossible
Okay then, lets get started. Intacts explanations were, Poor play which is something that we all agreed wasn't something you really need to point out, and it is a tad bit scummy as was said to me.
Next he says that "I'm trying to make a read and be a little meta." which is odd to me as JH pointed out that being meta wont help at all and Intact should know that it isn't the best excuse.
As a follow up he says that he was "really convinced of my read as analectus being scum and thus promethelax coming out with a late post to save him seemed to fit perfectly with what my read was." and in my opinion you should never be convinced of a read unless you have evidence OR the play is so obviously scummy that almost everyone picks up on it.
Then he pulls out the bad play card again, something I have been told isn't any good.
His follow up is much of the same "Again, I'm just trying to get discussion going early on. I realize I was a bit too eager to get a read off and again I'm gonna have to point to my inexperience" with the whole inexperience thing acting as a crutch
Now lets get to some of his earlier posts. Now while Myles and Promethelax have gone over most of the points I mean to make here there are something I want to point out He has 7-10 posts that are in anyway related to this, the rest are just there to say "I'm still in the game gimme a bit more time to make an argument". While I realize that he could have been telling the truth, There are many places in this world with computers and an internet connection, be it a library or a computer cafe.
On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus.
Now he stands by his read but also puts one onto Promethelax who at the time was with JH the only people giving advice and direction. He says that because Promethelax was trying to help by making an argument he was scummy.
Due to time I'm pushing this out so its not as finished as I would like.
##Vote Intact because I feel that is the best course of action for the town right now.
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Day 2 Vote Count:
BLinD-RawR (1): sciberbia
Intact (3): AmericanUmlaut, BobTheLob, Promethelax
Hopeless1der(1): Fencar
BobTheLob (1): iamperfection
Not Voted: BLinD-RawR, hopeless1der, Intact, Myles
With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Currently, no one is set to be lynched Day 2. 3.5 hours remain!
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :<
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On July 02 2012 06:00 ghost_403 wrote:End of Night 1 ERROR WITH FLAVOR GENERATOR.TheToast is in the shop getting repaired this weekend. Flavor soon to follow.
JingleHell playing the part of a the ABL Poster, has been found dead!Day 2 has begin. You have 48 hours to decide on your next lynch. Deadline is at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).
And sorry for the lack of flavor. We'll get right on fixing that.
Timestamped @ 0600 KST. Shouldn't that be ~3hr19min from now?
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On July 04 2012 02:41 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2012 06:00 ghost_403 wrote:End of Night 1 ERROR WITH FLAVOR GENERATOR.TheToast is in the shop getting repaired this weekend. Flavor soon to follow.
JingleHell playing the part of a the ABL Poster, has been found dead!Day 2 has begin. You have 48 hours to decide on your next lynch. Deadline is at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).
And sorry for the lack of flavor. We'll get right on fixing that. Timestamped @ 0600 KST. Shouldn't that be ~3hr19min from now?
Yes. Day 2 will end at 6:00 KST/16:00 CDT
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edit: nvm
All you need to know is that that the correct time for the end of Day 2 is 6:00 KST/16:00 CDT/23:00 CEST
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Listen to theToast. Vote count updated with proper time. 3 hours remain.
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United States5162 Posts
Since Fencar dropped out without voting and is yet to be replaced, doesn't that mean there's only 9 players so it should be 5 votes to lynch?
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On July 04 2012 03:22 Myles wrote:
Since Fencar dropped out without voting and is yet to be replaced, doesn't that mean there's only 9 players so it should be 5 votes to lynch?
Because Fencar cast his vote before dropping out, and because he has not yet been modkilled, ghost has decided to count his vote and include him in the vote majority. It will still take a majority of 6 to lynch. If you have questions about it, please PM ghost_403.
Note that there is still time for Fencar to be replaced.
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I've been following the thread from work. Nothing I've read has done much to change my views on today's lynch.
I'm still really not convinced about Intact. Maybe he is mafia/troll, but I still don't think he's our best chance.
I still feel most confident about BLinD-Rawr, but I see that I am not getting much support. I suggest that you all revisit the cases against him. If you agree with me that he is a better lynch than Intact, please make your voice heard. We have only 2.5 hours left. If you don't agree with me, well please at least read his filter again.
If I don't get enough support on BLinD-Rawr/BobTheLob, I am prepared to change my vote to Intact if that is needed for a majority. I won't miss the deadline.
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United States5162 Posts
I'm relooking over the case on Blind-rawr, but he hasn't really set off any alarms for me even though there really isn't much difference between him and Bob - and I'm not really sure why not. Him and iamperfection are both really border line but I can't see them as more than 50/50 at this point. Bob and Intact seem like better choice, especially since I think a couple of things Intact has posted are suspiciously inconsistent. I'll post again once I'm done rereading stuff.
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I'm feeling very nervous about this lynch. I still stand by my read of Intact, but Bob's most recent post is also very suspect to me. His case on Intact refers repeatedly to Intact's claims of lack of experience as being scummy, but Bob's own post is phrased in two places so as to disarm the reader by making passive reference to his inexperience:
Okay then, lets get started. Intacts explanations were, Poor play which is something that we all agreed wasn't something you really need to point out, and it is a tad bit scummy as was said to me.
Then he pulls out the bad play card again, something I have been told isn't any good.
The post overall feels like it is less Bob's real thoughts on Intact's play than an attempt to justify his vote without appearing suspicious. My reading of Bob slightly scummier than before after the post.
The question, though, is whether -- in the case Bob is a PBU -- the choice to vote on Intact is an attempt to build momentum for a mislynch or an attempt to bus a scumbuddy that he figures isn't long for this world in any case.
I'm keeping my vote on Intact at this point. I'd love to hear others' thoughts on the situation, and I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but I still think Intact is the scummiest read. Especially considering he promised reads for us to build on "soon", five hours ago. I think he sees sciberbia's cases on Bob and Blind-Rawr as a chance for him to dodge a banhammer, and he's laying low hoping that we get distracted discussing them and forget about him.
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I for one am convinced that Intact is scum. He has had almost 5 hours to post his reads
On July 03 2012 23:01 Intact wrote:
SNIP
That should cover it for the moment, I'll post my reads shortly after thinking them through, been mostly concerned with defending myself the lasts couple of days.
Even if he were to post a fantastic analysis, there is very little time for us to discuss and make a decision other than to push us over the edge between our picks. Unless he comes after either myself or Blindy, he's first in line to get the lynch. I don't see strong cases on anyone else.
I am still reading neutral on BobtheLob. He posted a read of Intact, but it had been looking pretty clear that hes our top suspect. It has the look and feel of an underproducing townie, but could be a late bus to build his cred. He's also posted a lot more today. Bonus points for that. Still neutral.
BLiND-RawR isn't getting the attention so far. I intend to pursue his case following today's lynch. He's lurked since his defense against my case on him. Very scummy behavior.
Given that I have what I feel are two good reads for scum, I'd rather focus on Intact today since Promethelax's vote is locked.
Vote: Intact
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EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about.
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On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about.
*Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it....
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United States5162 Posts
After looking things over, there's one thing that throws up a red flag for blind-rawr - after Fencar votes on Anacletus he remarks that he'd layoff voting because there is still 2 lurkers who haven't posted, but 2 hours later he votes anyways when literally nothing has changed other than the bandwagon has started. Caught up in group think or seeing a safe opportunity to jump on, it's hard to say.
I think I'm reading him above Bob in my Scum-o-meter now, but Intact still seems like a more solid choice. His posting has been all around abysmal and his excuses are lame. I'm going to be around right until nightfall so I won't be voting just yet, but I'm heavily learning towards Intact right now.
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EPT
