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Newbie Mini Mafia XIX - Page 43

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Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
July 14 2012 00:34 GMT
#841
@ghost: any update on the analysis?
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
July 14 2012 02:23 GMT
#842
Unfortunately, Keirathi, I haven't written up to the part where you come into play

I expected to spend more time on it, and I intend on finishing my thoughts on the game, but just haven't gotten around to it. At any rate, here are my thoughts so far.

http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/uKn4LQFCCNCg
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
July 14 2012 02:39 GMT
#843
I'm just as interested in your overall notes as I am your notes about me.

You commented on a lot of the same things that I did in my notes (Fencar using mafia guide to defend himself, Prom's 99% quote, Fencar defending Prom out of nowhere for no reason whatsoever, etc), so just by looking at your notes I feel more confident in my ability to pick out juicy tidbits.
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
AmericanUmlaut
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Germany2577 Posts
July 23 2012 11:26 GMT
#844
We want mod notes! Don't make me vandalize your quicktopic again -.-
The frumious Bandersnatch
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
July 23 2012 20:02 GMT
#845
Yeah, I was hoping to get around to that this weekend, but I got distracted by Dark Knight Rises and a pretty girl. I'll finish that later today.

Or, you could finish it yourself. I'm not picky.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
July 24 2012 00:44 GMT
#846
The below post should have been a huge red flag to everyone playing the game. So big that I'm going to take a moment to go through it here in the thread and respond to all of it.

On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:
Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333.

So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red.

In this game, there are only two alignments: town and mafia. If the person accusing you is part of the mafia, don't bother responding to them. They know you're innocent, and arguing with them isn't really going to get you anywhere. So ignoring them is probably the right thing to do, especially when no one else is jumping on to the bandwagon. However, if the other person is actually part of the town, neither of you are doing the town any favors by sitting across the room from each other and shouting that the other one is scum. Again, the best response to someone thinking you're scum is to find and lynch scum. Once you start flipping a few of your buddies, and they flip red, people aren't going to question your alignment.


So first: my scum reads.

I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look.

If you read his filter, he's been pushing Fencar pretty hard the whole game. Leaving this as one line is appropriate.

Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. (1)I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really.

(2)The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. (3)Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead.

(4)There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but (5)Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.

I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.

I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.

Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.

My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.

I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.

As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.

My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.

But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will

##Vote BlinD-Rawr
.

(6)Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should.

In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read!

(7)look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out.

(8)So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier.

Alright, what is Prom actually saying in this post? Let's count them out. (Numbered above for your convinience.)
  1. BR gave us nothing to go on because he's been gone from the thread.
  2. Keir is doing his best to contribute to the game despite being a replacement.
  3. Nothing. Read this section carefully. He says nothing substantial for the rest of the paragraph.
  4. More nothing. Just WIFOM about the nightkill.
  5. Sciberbia thought BR/Kier might be scum.
  6. Complains that Kier's huge post was a rehash (marginally true, at best).
  7. Accuses Kier of trying to gain towncred for a "gg" post.
  8. Pushes a dead townies read.

Prom has managed to type a page worth of words here without saying anything. He's stated the obvious, spewed a lot of hot air, and invoked the name of a dead townie to push for a lynch. (Sort of. Never actually voted for his "strongest scum read".) This post is empty, and that's because Prom isn't really looking for scum.

Side note: For the love of all things sacred, go back and read what dead townies had to say. They aren't necessarily right, but you know their bias, and should take it into account. So many dead townies are ignored after they flip. Go back, see what they had to say, and then figure out if they were right.


My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum.

Pause. If you already have someone who you're sure is scum, why are you pushing someone else? One scum at a time, otherwise the town becomes chaotic and ineffective. Find scum, lynch scum, find more scum.


I have already made a case about him and here it is

Show nested quote +
On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:
Between
On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board?


and

On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:
On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote:
Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum.


Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on.


something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account.

He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this:
On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:
Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically.
It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE.


Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion.


where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things.

The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one:
On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:
On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:

Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts!


I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool.

##Vote: Fencer710


which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all.

So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case.

On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following:

WORST CASE SCENARIO
No Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +

Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
No Lynch, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch


(Mis)Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +
Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)
Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town
Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch)


Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse.


On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
SNIP
My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch.


WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU??


Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter.


On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped.

Now, a bit earlier in the post, Prom declared himself "confirmed town" due to the length of his filter. Now, he's saying that another member of the town is scum for believing that he's town? And all in an attempt to get him mislynched, then sacking Kier for towncred? Connections are important in this game, but as of yet, no one has flipped scum. You can't really make those connections until you know someone's alignment.


It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here:
Show nested quote +
On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.)

I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches.

Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier.

That last point is just ridiculous.

In addition, notice that again, Prom has not brought anything new to the thread. His entire case is (a) things he's brought to the attention of the town before, (b) a soft defense based on a paranoid theory, and (c) a ridiculous point based on him using a coach's name. Again, this is him trying to look like he's contributing to the thread while not contributing.

Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible.

The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target.

Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't).

Notice that he's soft defending Myles here for towncred, which is one of his main points against hopeless1der.


So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me.

Show nested quote +
On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:
On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about.


*Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it....


Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post

Show nested quote +
On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML.


onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see.

And again, Prom is pushing reads based on connections with players who have not flipped. Notice again that Prom slips in that he's confirmed town.


To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it:

Kier=Scum
Hopeless=Scum
Bob=Town


This is a scummy post. This should have painted Prom as scum as soon as it went up in thread.

@Town: Pay close attention to people who are trying to (a) convince you they are somehow "confirmed town" and (b) make long posts without contributing. These are what the scum try to spend their time doing. A good town player will spend their time trying to find scum. Scum will try to spend their time convincing you that they're spending their time trying to find scum. Learn the difference and punish people who do the latter.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Promethelax
Profile Joined February 2012
Canada7089 Posts
July 24 2012 05:54 GMT
#847
I happen to like my pants-on-head-retarded connection theory
TL Mafia. Love it. Play it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 I find Kennigit really attractive. If anyone has a picture of him please feel free to PM it to me.
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