Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account. 11. Comparing / posting the phrasing of host-PMs including the Role-PM to figure out alignments 12. No talk about wincons! Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: Do not sign up as one. I will find out, and be upset. This is a game for new players only
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here. I don't mind a little spam as long as it's game related as it can be a viable strategy or people being a little more talkactive. Keep it simple
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Qatol, or Flamewheel before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = #of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to new players only this means three or fewer games played here on TL
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until I say so. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list.
Clues: There are NO clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a (24 hour night/48 hour) day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is time, but that is subject to change. The deadline will be 22:30 GMT (+00:00) and we will start once all slots are full + maybe 1 or 2 days depending what day it is. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Special thanks to GMarshal because this is basicly his set-up and Radfield for advice!
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
The setup is a modified version of F11; one of the following four setups is to be randomly chosen and used:
Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town. 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town.
You will not know which setup is chosen.
Roles:
Townie You are just a normal player with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day. But the town needs you to win so be active!
Detective You can make night investigations. Once per night you may ask for the alignment of any player. Alignments are either Town or Mafia. You are always sane. Alignment checks come back with the next day post.
Medic You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, both you and your target will be notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Roleblocker You are a mafia member who has the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. Once per night, you may roleblock a player, and your target will be unable to perform night actions for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been roleblocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night.
Welcome to Newbie Mini XV, you are a Vanilla Townie You are a simpleton villager. Your job is to rid the town of all mafia. You're also seriously badass.
Welcome to Newbie Mini XV, you are a Detective You're a stud. As such, you may check one person (once/every night) and will receive back either guilty or innocent.. You may vote once per day as everyone in the game.
You're Gregory House. As a medical genius, you have the power to save lives. You may choose one person to protect (one night/every night) and you will protect them from 1 KP. If your protection stops a hit, both you and your target will be informed. You may vote once per day.
Welcome to Newbie Mini XV, you are a Mafia Goon You are just a hitman for the mafia and your name is distinctly Italian. Enough talk, just go out there and start killing things. Your family can kill one person per night. You may talk to each other at any time in private by any means you wish; for your convenience, a QT has been provided here (link) Youre allies are: IBEMAFIA, IAREASWELL
Welcome to Newbie Mini XV, you are a Mafia Roleblocker You break bones for a living. Either that or you just smooth talk people. Whatever you feel like, really. As such, once per night you may choose one person to roleblock. That person will be informed that he or she was roleblocked. You may communicate privately with your friend(s) (name(s) here) in any manner you wish; a QT has been provided at (link here) for your convenience.
Town-Wincon: You win when all threats to town are eliminated Mafia-Wincon: You win when you outnumber town or have an equal amount of mafias alive as there are townies alive.
I have entrance exams until Wednesday, so I can't be very active until those are over, but it doesn't look like this game is starting much sooner than Wednesday anyway. Also, I'll become almost certainly inactive starting around the 20th of June (I don't think I'll have Internet connection for a while), but I guess this game should be over by then...? What do you think?
In case my situation isn't too complex, sign me up! I have already played in two games, once as a vanilla townie and once as Mafia - maybe I'll be blue this time?
On May 27 2012 21:04 Xatalos wrote: I think I can join this
I have entrance exams until Wednesday, so I can't be very active until those are over, but it doesn't look like this game is starting much sooner than Wednesday anyway. Also, I'll become almost certainly inactive starting around the 20th of June (I don't think I'll have Internet connection for a while), but I guess this game should be over by then...? What do you think?
In case my situation isn't too complex, sign me up! I have already played in two games, once as a vanilla townie and once as Mafia - maybe I'll be blue this time?
yeah I doubt this game is going to take a month, so 20th of june sounds good to me :p I don't know how soon this is going to start. Rad told me these games usually take a couple of days to get filled up so I'd say wednesday sounds reasonable
On May 27 2012 21:04 Xatalos wrote: I think I can join this
I have entrance exams until Wednesday, so I can't be very active until those are over, but it doesn't look like this game is starting much sooner than Wednesday anyway. Also, I'll become almost certainly inactive starting around the 20th of June (I don't think I'll have Internet connection for a while), but I guess this game should be over by then...? What do you think?
In case my situation isn't too complex, sign me up! I have already played in two games, once as a vanilla townie and once as Mafia - maybe I'll be blue this time?
yeah I doubt this game is going to take a month, so 20th of june sounds good to me :p I don't know how soon this is going to start. Rad told me these games usually take a couple of days to get filled up so I'd say wednesday sounds reasonable
Good to hear! Okay, I'm in. This will be my first game with a majority lynch setting, too, so it's nice to have that experience for once (although I didn't like how it led to several no-lynches in Wheel of Fortune).
Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
On May 27 2012 22:03 Xatalos wrote: Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
The roleblocker with no blues setup is so that mafia doesnt automatically know wether there are actually any blues for town. Without it, if mafia gets a roleblocker they will know that there is a doctor and a cop, and this prevents them from knowing this information. Roleblocker without any town roles is also basically a all vanilla setup, and its probably harder for town compared to the other 3.
On May 27 2012 22:03 Xatalos wrote: Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
The roleblocker with no blues setup is so that mafia doesnt automatically know wether there are actually any blues for town. Without it, if mafia gets a roleblocker they will know that there is a doctor and a cop, and this prevents them from knowing this information. Roleblocker without any town roles is also basically a all vanilla setup, and its probably harder for town compared to the other 3.
Yeah, I see. Just thought about that meta reason a moment after I posted my question And I agree that especially a Detective is VERY useful in this setup, since his checks are 100% correct (no framers, millers or insane Detectives).
On May 27 2012 22:03 Xatalos wrote: Question about the setup options... I don't understand why the option with no blue roles has a Mafia Roleblocker, while the options with a Medic or a Detective have no Roleblockers? First of all, the Roleblocker has no use at all without blue roles, but it also makes little sense to have a more "powerful" Mafia team with less blue roles, and a "weaker" Mafia team with more blue roles around...?
The roleblocker with no blues setup is so that mafia doesnt automatically know wether there are actually any blues for town. Without it, if mafia gets a roleblocker they will know that there is a doctor and a cop, and this prevents them from knowing this information. Roleblocker without any town roles is also basically a all vanilla setup, and its probably harder for town compared to the other 3.
Yeah, I see. Just thought about that meta reason a moment after I posted my question And I agree that especially a Detective is VERY useful in this setup, since his checks are 100% correct (no framers, millers or insane Detectives).
what Zelblade said and actually it's the other way around as well. If you get roleblocked as a townie you would know that town has a medic / DT somewhere if RB only occurs when town actualy has a PR. That way you can't confirm the set-up basoned on actions early on.
Edit: I am host, I shall use blue text from now on!
I personally think millers are a bad role. One unlucky check can screw you over sooooooooo hard. Only problem with something like this, as said, is that there is 0 doubt in a DT check. Sainty probably isnt a good idea for a newbie game though :D
On May 27 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote: I personally think millers are a bad role. One unlucky check can screw you over sooooooooo hard. Only problem with something like this, as said, is that there is 0 doubt in a DT check. Sainty probably isnt a good idea for a newbie game though :D
Yeah, I dislike Millers too... And insanity. Uncertainty = good, randomness = bad. That's why I like Framers (they produce uncertainty to the game without being random). I'm on the fence about Godfathers (I think it's a better role than a Miller or an insane Detective, but not as good as a Framer).
Unfortunate that you can't play in a newbie game anymore, marvellosity I'll look forward to reading your analysis on the ObsQT though, haha! Maybe I'll ask for some advice, too, especially if I'm town.
On May 27 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote: I personally think millers are a bad role. One unlucky check can screw you over sooooooooo hard. Only problem with something like this, as said, is that there is 0 doubt in a DT check. Sainty probably isnt a good idea for a newbie game though :D
Yeah, I dislike Millers too... And insanity. Uncertainty = good, randomness = bad. That's why I like Framers (they produce uncertainty to the game without being random). I'm on the fence about Godfathers (I think it's a better role than a Miller or an insane Detective, but not as good as a Framer).
Unfortunate that you can't play in a newbie game anymore, marvellosity I'll look forward to reading your analysis on the ObsQT though, haha! Maybe I'll ask for some advice, too, especially if I'm town.
I think insane detectives as fine long as they are aware of the possibility. Makes them suck for 2 days or so :D
Updated the playerlist, sry it took so long (like 2 days?) but I was quite busy the last 2 days, my father cut his hand had to go to the hospital and needed some stitches and I really had no time to update this because of stuff like that. However I'm now going back to my place by train and will be available for everything :p
I will also give a brief explanation of what coaches are supposed to be like and what kind of questions are "nice" because obviously "Is X mafia?" or something along those lines is not the kind of question that will get an answer and I highly recommend asking coaches about stuff. They are the reason I like these games so much for newbs.
On May 28 2012 21:40 marvellosity wrote: Time to be a bit more assertive, golden? ^^
first game i ever played i spent so much time writing HUGE posts and people ignored me for 'fluff'
second game i play i get lynched for not posting enough.
FML!
The life of a Vanilla Townie
That other game is so interesting to watch atm, but i feel a bit jipped for Mufaa not getting modkilled. The rules state that he will be modkilled but he got replaced. i was counting on his modkill from day 1 in my strat.
On May 28 2012 21:40 marvellosity wrote: Time to be a bit more assertive, golden? ^^
first game i ever played i spent so much time writing HUGE posts and people ignored me for 'fluff'
second game i play i get lynched for not posting enough.
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
On May 29 2012 11:09 Sinensis wrote: Am I allowed to /in this game?
I play a lot but I'm still pretty noob.
Sorry, I think it's 3 games maximum without exceptions...
On May 28 2012 21:40 marvellosity wrote: Time to be a bit more assertive, golden? ^^
first game i ever played i spent so much time writing HUGE posts and people ignored me for 'fluff'
second game i play i get lynched for not posting enough.
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
On May 29 2012 19:17 s0Lstice wrote: still feel bad for mislynching golden. sorry d00d
It's okay mang. i don't think we'll win that game. but i'm cool with that, we won the first game. so now i'm 1-1!
I really should have been a bit more active last game, but it was hard with the big personalities flying around eg Release. everytime i'd go to read the thread there would be a plethora of new posts and i got lost reading alot more than writing. so this game ill try to even my post/reading ratio.
pumped for this one. then off into the big league!
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
I loled ^_^
Haha! I'll try not to post as much this time around, to make your lives a bit easier
I haven't played in a really long time, and I'd rather ease back in. But I have played more than 3 games. If this game doesn't fill up fast enough or you need a substitute, I'd love to play.
/in (I'll pull out if a newbie wants in and just be on the replacement list)
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
We found scum before the PM roles are even sent out.
There is a golden middle road, you know? In any case, it's better to post too much than too little. Just try to make your every post useful in some way.
We found scum before the PM roles are even sent out.
I *think* signups should be complete. The game is probably starting soon, though Toad hasnt told me anything. If you guys need to clarify anything regarding setup you should do so now.
By the way im sure we wouldnt mind having a couple of replacements so feel free to /in anyway if you would like to.
Ok sign-ups are full. Game is going to start within a couple hours at 22:00 GMT (+00:00) That means you have a little less than 10 hours to think a last time about wether or not you want to play this game.
If you want to out for whatever reason, this is the time for it
Exams finally over, so now I can "relax" with this game as much as I want Bring it on! Although unfortunately I'm probably sleeping as the game starts...
On May 31 2012 04:29 Superouman wrote: Let's go for my first game :3
Oh, your named looked familiar! Weird to think that I'm playing Mafia with the maker of Cloud Kingdom... Almost like playing Mafia with White-Ra or something, haha!
Good to have you on board, anyhow. I'll have to go sleep soon, but on the other hand, I can read the players better when I'm not involved in the first hours, I guess.
PM's are out. Day 1 post will be up in roughly an hour. I ask you to not post until the day 1 post is up. If you have not gotten a Role-PM, if there is a mistake in your Role-PM (whatever it might be) or if you have any questions about your role feel free to ask me IN PM about it!
It was a fine morning for the village of Liquidia. No clouds in the sky, a warm day and the fisher came back with boats full fish. It was always that way in Liquidia when the summer started. The Mayor of the city Toadesster and his assistant zelblade went with the biggest ship the little village had on the first day of summer, although they both hated the stench of dead fish and those fisherboats. They had to go, that's what the villagers want to see: their mayor being involved in the daily life and afterwards the village is going to have a huge feast to celebrate this fine day. That's how it's done in Liquidia, it has been tradition.
A couple of hours later the ship was comming back to the harbor and people were screaming in joy, until they realised that something was wrong. The ship did not stop and crashed right into the old harbor destroying everything in it's way until it came to a rest.
People were still screaming although no longer of joy. Quickly a few men tried to get on the ship, trying to figure out what was going on. From the looks of it the ship seemed deserted.
A couple of minutes later the men came back carrieng the bodies of some poor sailors, the mayor Toadesstern and his assistant zelblade.
The men put the bodies of Toadesstern the Mayor of Liquidia zelblade the Assistant of the Mayor Radfield the Captain on the floor next to the shore.
Only now people realized that on the side of the ship there was a message writting in capital, red letters:
YOU WILL ALL PAY
Day 1 has started. You have a little less than 48 hours left to vote. Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) in roughly 48 hours.
Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
Oh I forgot to add the wincons to the role-PMs LOL.
Town-Wincon: You win when all threats to town are eliminated Mafia-Wincon: You win when you outnumber town or have an equal amount of mafias alive as there are townies alive.
Feel free to "add" that to your Role-PMs. Sorry about the mistake I will add it to the op and hope I don't need to send 12 new pms :p
Edit: Also keep in mind I added those two rules to the OP (way before forgetting the wincons, so it has nothing to do with that):
11. Comparing / posting the phrasing of host-PMs including the Role-PM to figure out alignments 12. No talk about wincons!
So if there are mistakes about your role-PM like typos please don't post them to confirm yourself or something like that! I hope they're right but you never know, that's why
I disagree sciberbia, i've learnt from the past that it's stupid too not lynch day one. You should realise that yourself with the last games fiasco with Mufaa being AFK all. I'm strongly against not lynching, either we knock a lurker or we knock someone who appears scummy and see how they flip. Mafia is a game of information, and with no information on day 2 we loss. Standard stuff. I understand you don't want to hit blue again D1 like last game, but its the responsibility of the blue role to defend himself from a mislynch rather than town being to scared to lynch for hitting blue.
About Me: This is my 3rd game, so last game before the big leagues. I'm ready to be super active and lynch some mafia scum!
Hello there sciberbia. Let's hope we both learned a lot from last game. You start tying the nooses and I'll rig up the gallows. Let's kill some scummers, and avenge Toad and Zelblade...Radfield too I guess though I have no idea who he is.
Apropos to learning from last game, I can't help but feel that we should strongly consider lynching lurkers if any do appear. Of course it's a question of degrees...I just don't want to see another Mufaa/skware.
As far as whether or not to lynch, do you think you are putting the wagon before the horse here? What are your thoughts on putting this decision off until we see what cases develop, and how strong they are?
Also, just food for thought, you list two out of the four scenarios as being no-lynch optimal; this of course leaves the other two as undecided/potentially good day 1 lynch setups. These being close to equal, wouldn't you rather lynch in the event we get lucky and hit scum?
I can't think of any good reason for a no lynch. We might get scum today and without day 1 lynch the night 1 kill will be even more diffficult to analyse.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree.
On May 31 2012 07:51 s0Lstice wrote: sciberbia, I think judging from the reactions you might want to post your full reasoning.
Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for? As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't.
Hey all, just checking in before I go to work. There are a few issues that I've seen derail newbie games in the several threads that I've read through. I'll do my best to cover those now.
1. Lynch vs. No-Lynch: Always go for the lynch. Lynching is the only game mechanic, especially in a game w/out vigis, that allows town to get rid of scum. Mislynches happen, and they are unfortunate, but the town gains more information from a mislynch than a no-lynch (eg. who bandwagoned when, how players on the chopping block respond pressure, etc.) In short, lynches have to happen. Anyone advocating a no-lynch will immediately have my suspicions.
2. Roleclaims: These are tricky because they all come down to timing. They can be the sign of a desperate scum player, or a blue role actively trying to help. If you are a blue role here are a few things to think about. When will claiming most actively help town? Do the mafia have a read on you? If so, what is the best way to present the information you have that vanilla townies do not? Whatever you do, don't roleclaim with your first post Day 1. I think I read a game where someone did that, needless to say townies lost.
3. Be active: The best possible way for you to help the town is by actively posting in the thread. If we have even one player lurking, any information gained from a lynch of that player is lessened greatly. Mafia have a reason to lurk, they want to blend in. Townies that lurk give mafia that place to blend in. In that sense, the townies are actively hurting the goal (to lynch scum) of the town.
Hopefully this is all the discussion we need on questions of policy. If the town spends too much time discussing policy they spend less time actively scumhunting.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
@s0sltice Gladly. Good to see you and golden again and posting already. I expected you all to be skeptical because it is usually better to lynch. Let me explain my reasoning for setup B (all vanilla) and hopefully you will see how the logic easily extends to setup D (with a cop).
It is generally accepted that with 3 VT's and 1 goon remaining, the best option is to NL. This increases the town win percentage from 25% to 33%. It's a similar principle that encourages NL'ing in any vanilla setup with an even number of players. I am pretty sure about my reasoning on this setup.
Either way, we have exactly 5 lynches to nail exactly 3 mafia. But in the ladder case, we have a marginally higher probability of success on each lynch. This is for two reasons: 1) the mafia were kind enough to kill off a townie, so now it's 3/11 instead of 3/12 etc 2) we actually have MORE information on each lynch. we get to see an extra kill. If we have a cop, he got to make an extra check.
Try not to look at it as where we are tomorrow vs where we are today. Consider that we always have 5 lynches for 6 days, but we get to choose which day to NL on.
This is the basis of my argument. Assuming setup B (all vanilla), I think it can never hurt to NL on day 1. Do you see a flaw in my logic? I think that it might be even more beneficial in setup D to get our cop more checks. The setups with a medic are less clear because we could be blessed with a medic save. I'm not 100% sure we should NL but I think there is certainly a case to be made, so I'm making it. I hope you guys can confirm/refute my logic.
Another thing I forgot: Keep in mind we have 2 coaches for Town: Mementoss & marvellosity If you have any questions considering this game feel free to bombard them with questions via PM. I gave them a brief instruction on what to talk about and on how to talk because I have no idea if they have coaches before but they'll be at your service and i HIGHLY recommend talking about the game with them.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. As for solstice, i'm not sure. His first post reflect a certain indecision whispering: 'Do whatever you want, I'm in for it.' Then he points the finger at the most active player. I won't say you're scummy, but you aren't clean yet in my book as opposed to the others.Why do you question our most active townie. Ange777's post makes him look like he's bandwagoning if you look at the majority of the pro-lynch responses before.A pretty thin post.
Still, all of those don't stink scummy until we get information from people who didn't post already.
@ sciberbia The issue I have with your logic is that we don't know the setup and that mafia is not a game of pure probability. If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however. Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with.
In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on. Discussion on when a no-lynch might help can be held off until such a situation presents itself.
Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia
As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better. I'm leaving for work, but I'll check the thread when I get back later. Give me some activity to come back to town.
Sciberbia, you wanted our opinion on the matter of a NL Day 1.... I strongly,strongly disagree with a NL.
The issue isn't with the unknown setup. It doesn't matter. No matter what the setup is, we should always go through with a Day 1 lynch. The flaw with your logic is that the lynches are not pure probability. We are not condemning some poor soul to death from a name in a hat. It is based on people's reactions to pressure, contradictions, activity level, and other information generated by discussion. When someone dies, most of us should be feeling comfortable with it. If anything, the purpose of a Day 1 lynch is not some slim chance of lynching mafia, but for information. Information we can use to lead the course of Day 2 and onward.
In your scenario, every lynch is an isolated incident. The lynches of each day are not independent. The outcome of a Day 1 lynch WILL affect the outcome of the Day 2 lynch, and only for the better because of all us will have a clearer picture of the situation.
---
In other news: I wanted to suggest a few things to town that you may or may not find useful:
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
3. This is a newbie game. Most people don't know what to do as a blue role. Pretend you don't have it. Seriously, most people with a blue role are afraid to stick their head out and, as a result, are often mistaken for scum. We don't want to hang you so please don't give us a reason. Be active.
4. Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
---
@Cattivik "Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game."
That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with.
My logic does NOT depend on us mislynching in any way, shape, or form. I'm just saying we get 5 lynches either way, and that by NL'ing D1 we get the most information possible prior to each lynch. It's just math.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however.
On the contrary, it is very likely when we start with an even number of players. If we get down to 4 (very likely if we never NL), we should certainly NL. I think we can all agree on that.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on.
This applies to heist's criticism too.
A day 1 NL gives us MORE information to work off for our first lynch. Think about it. If we lynch day 1, we have 48 hours worth of discussion to go on for our first lynch. If we NL day 1, we have 120 hours of discussion and a round of night actions to consider for our first lynch. And we end up with 5 lynches either way: it doesn't cost us a lynch (assuming no medic saves).
I agree with heist that the results of lynches factor into future lynches. But this is irrelevant to the issue of a day 1 NL. We still have 5 lynches. We can still consider the results of a previous lynch when we are making our second lynch etc. I feel like I'm just repeating myself now.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart.
I think your accusation of me is rather hasty. My discussion does have the best interests of town at heart. The point of the discussion was two-fold 1) Try to convince you guys of a superior line of play 2) Give people something to talk about in their first posts
While I was not wildly successful in my first goal, you cannot deny that I have succeeded in the second. If you look at the thread since the daypost, the lynch vs nolynch question has certainly gotten people posting. We need posts to generate scumreads. We need scumreads to lynch scum, which is the primary goal here.
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better.
I stand by everything I've said, and I still currently feel that NL is slightly superior to lynching on day 1 (by maybe 3%). However, I'm getting the feeling that I could write a 10-page paper full of proofs and diagrams and I wouldn't convince anybody, so I'm willing to drop the subject if that's what you want. It has already generated some discussion, which was the primary goal.
Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point.
The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
@Cattivik Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you.
Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him.
@Xatalos. I think that Miltonkrams vote is too pressure a better explanation of his post. I don't suspect a bandwagon, rather just get the ball rolling and hold sciberbia accountable. no lynch d1 is a strange push so early and i'd like to hear his rebuttal to the vote before casting my own.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't.
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. As for solstice, i'm not sure. His first post reflect a certain indecision whispering: 'Do whatever you want, I'm in for it.' Then he points the finger at the most active player. I won't say you're scummy, but you aren't clean yet in my book as opposed to the others.Why do you question our most active townie. Ange777's post makes him look like he's bandwagoning if you look at the majority of the pro-lynch responses before.A pretty thin post.
Still, all of those don't stink scummy until we get information from people who didn't post already.
He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram).
He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority.
On May 31 2012 11:49 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Xatalos. I think that Miltonkrams vote is too pressure a better explanation of his post. I don't suspect a bandwagon, rather just get the ball rolling and hold sciberbia accountable. no lynch d1 is a strange push so early and i'd like to hear his rebuttal to the vote before casting my own.
Even if it's a vote to pressure the explanation, I still find it a very confusing move to make, simply because of how early it is in the game. Many players haven't even made their first posts yet, let alone respond to sciberbia, so I don't think it was necessary to 'pressure' an explanation, simply because sciberbia gave no indication that he wouldn't further support his claims.
Simply voting to 'pressure' an explanation seems too flimsy - he could have simply asked for one and saved his pressure vote for later on if he needed it.
Rather, it feels like he has a distinct purpose in throwing out a vote that early, as if to say 'hey, I'm a townie because I'm not afraid to take bold actions'.
Let's say sciberbia is lynched on day 1 and turns out to be scum. Milton gains credibility for making a good read, and for being the first one to make it. On the other hand, if sciberbia is lynched and turns out to be town, Milton can hide behind the 'pressure vote' reasoning, and claim that it was too early to really know for sure when he made the vote.
And then there's the possibility that sciberbia isn't lynched at all, in which case his vote ends up making no real difference - except that he still gains some townie credibility for being bold enough to take action.
I'm leaning towards Milton being town, simply because it would take a pretty ballsy mafia to make such a move so early on, but between sciberbia and Milton, Milton is the more suspicious to me at the moment. Although I don't agree with a Day 1 NL, I find that sciberbia's motives for pushing of a Day 1 NL are sincere and at the very least is generating discussion (which is good for the town regardless), whereas Milton's vote is just confusing.
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Sup people, reporting in. I like the discussion about the NL on day 1, having played mafia 13 and having a lot of lurkers got me thinking about using day 1 lynch and calling out lurkers is the best for the town, especially those lurkers who goes super active the last hours of the day, we have to keep an eye on them.
On May 31 2012 07:31 O.Golden_ne wrote: I disagree sciberbia, i've learnt from the past that it's stupid too not lynch day one. You should realise that yourself with the last games fiasco with Mufaa being AFK all. I'm strongly against not lynching, either we knock a lurker or we knock someone who appears scummy and see how they flip. Mafia is a game of information, and with no information on day 2 we loss. Standard stuff. I understand you don't want to hit blue again D1 like last game, but its the responsibility of the blue role to defend himself from a mislynch rather than town being to scared to lynch for hitting blue.
agree 100%
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
STRONGLY AGREE on this, blue people, dont roleclaim instantly, but dont put yourself in the radar, you SHOULD roleclaim as last resource i think, and give proof for such claim of course.
Also, i have a reccomendation, please people, dont use PAST games as a guide, people change their way of play everytime, the last (and only) game i played, town got fucked (in part) thanks to this...i was mafia, lurking, bad town play and bad reads based on past games granted us the victory, only 1 mafia died thanks to a very lucky shot.
ebwop: oh, i forgot to tell you, english is not my native language, so if someone doesnt understand what im saying please ask, i know sometimes is a bit hard to try to understand my posts, but im gonna gladly help. Sometimes is hard for me to do LONG post, but i will try to practice here, so if my post count is low i'll try to make it worth it.
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
@ sciberbia I ran through the math and you are correct that we get 5 lynches. We only get 3 if we hit town every time. If there comes a time when we hit MYLO (mislynch and lose) then I could see NLing to get better odds. NLing any time before that reduces the chance that our (possible) medic is actually useful to us. I still stand by the fact that no-lynching D1 is a really bad play, but if we hit MYLO I won't automatically be against it. I see now what you were saying.
Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
Hi hi, i just woke up, i'm so sad to see our mayor and his assistant die so quickly. This news is a lot worse than all on the tv And i don't like people who talk too much and even more the ones who want to avoid lynching
On May 31 2012 17:47 Superouman wrote: Hi hi, i just woke up, i'm so sad to see our mayor and his assistant die so quickly. This news is a lot worse than all on the tv And i don't like people who talk too much and even more the ones who want to avoid lynching
Your first post is very bland and even outright weird. You begin with some fluff, and then you want to lynch active posters. What?? And what do you mean with "people who want to avoid being lynched"? Who doesn't want to avoid being lynched? I expect to see some improvement soon, although I can't yet say if this is beginner Mafia or beginner town play. It's always hard to tell with posting like this.
On May 31 2012 13:32 Unforgiven_ve wrote: --snipped Also, i have a reccomendation, please people, dont use PAST games as a guide,
Why are you discouraging the use of meta arguments? Town needs to use any information available to them to hunt scum; having a firm example of how a person plays as town/scum is definitely valuable information.
So (in essence) you say don't use past games to inform your ideas/opinions on the current game. Yet you do this twice in the same post: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 13:32 Unforgiven_ve wrote: --snipped I like the discussion about the NL on day 1, having played mafia 13 and having a lot of lurkers got me thinking about using day 1 lynch and calling out lurkers is the best for the town, especially those lurkers who goes super active the last hours of the day, we have to keep an eye on them.
On May 31 2012 13:32 Unforgiven_ve wrote: --snipped the last (and only) game i played, town got fucked (in part) thanks to this...i was mafia, lurking, bad town play and bad reads based on past games granted us the victory, only 1 mafia died thanks to a very lucky shot.
On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote: --snipped If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Why on Earth are you trying to get us to talk about who should be leading us? This will do nothing but create a power struggle, and a lot of wasted time. Each townie needs to lead him/herself first and foremost.
##FoS: Unforgiven_ve
Now to Miltonkram. Your early vote and subsequent retraction, combined with your apologies reminds me a lot of recent history (Milton was scum last game). It looks like you are being aggressive without conviction, aka being aggressive just for the sake of looking aggressive. I'm watching you too.
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
On May 31 2012 11:47 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Cattivik Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you.
Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him.
##FOS: Cattivik
Miltonkram has finally understood the point sciberbia was trying to make, you also agree on my point about him most likely not being mafia due to first post. His post has generated most discussion so far. Probably more than by just voting for someone based on a gut feeling. From the start of the game the majority, including me, was for D1 lynching, making sciberbias post obsolete cause we won't be discussing policy anyway.It is clear that someone will hang at the end of the day.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't.
I never agreed to a plan:
On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote: Giovanni Falcone reporting in.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree.
On May 31 2012 07:58 Cattivik wrote: Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for? As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't.
But I was able to understand his logic concerning the difference between D1L/NL once he explained it. Also, there is one more tell for him being actually town: It's unlikely that such a mistake would happen to three mafia at the same time, who without doubt know each others' posts before they are out. In fact, posting in blue font confirms him as townie. Aswell as the fact that it would require a pretty solid plan for mafia to start with the first post, I don't see anything unfolding here though Obviously I took him into defense cause I don't want the most active posters to die first cause they have the balls to expose their neck to easy triggers who do all the work for the mafia by doing so. First and foremost, the lurkers and cautious ones have to get votes, else they can just keep lurking.
On May 31 2012 12:27 heist wrote: He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram).
He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority.
Based on the response to the previous quotes, I'm not just 'with' the majority, I've been part of it from the start of this game (for a D1 lynch before even knowing what sciberbias reasoning was). And it's in the best interest of the town to keep productive townies alive, sciberbia among them. I also don't like all this fingerpointing between active townies, if there are mafia still lurking, they can lean back.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
You confused something, first I said i want to LD1, then i defended sciberbia. I've never even considered a NL in this game, but I don't claim that it doesn't make sense in any situation.
In summary, the controversy about the policy talk seems to be dead to me. There is gonna be a D1 lynch. This is also a tl;dr version of the post for people who trust me anyway.
Here, my updated statements regarding some of the players posting so far:
Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
Ange777: Stop lurking. I'll vote for you.
Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this:
On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
On May 31 2012 19:54 s0Lstice wrote What are your thoughts on Superouman and Unforgiven_ve Milton?
We need more out of Superouman for sure. If he keeps lurking then we have to decide if we bite the bullet and lynch the lurker now or later. Same goes for Ange777. I hope it isn't a problem, but you never really know until you get deep in the game.
As to my thoughts on Unforgiven I'm a bit confused. First he states he's against bandwagons and then in the very same post states he's saving his vote for the very end of the day cycle. I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but why would he directly contradict himself in his own post? I'm thinking perhaps a language issue. The intent of his last sentence, asking for town leadership, seems strange as well. Although with that sentence it's easier to extrapolate some sort of scum logic. He might be seeing if he can get some of the town to follow one or two confirmed townies, that way when mafia shoots those townies at night all is chaos and the scum can blend in.
Ummm yeah i should talk more but the thing is that i don't know what to say, this is kind of a blind pick for now, but i am always suspicious of people who talk too much at the beginning
There's a lot going on in the thread, so you should have plenty to talk about. There are 2 cases with some momentum (Unforgiven and Eishi_Ki), cattivik is being hyper aggressive and has asserted sciberbia is surely town, we have two other lurker besides you so far (Ange777, suki), and Milton has been sort of all over the place. Talk about any of these.
On May 31 2012 20:20 Cattivik wrote: Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
I am totally not making fun of anything here, i'm just ready to kick some mafia butt. And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier.
On May 31 2012 11:47 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Cattivik Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you.
Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him.
##FOS: Cattivik
Miltonkram has finally understood the point sciberbia was trying to make, you also agree on my point about him most likely not being mafia due to first post. His post has generated most discussion so far. Probably more than by just voting for someone based on a gut feeling. From the start of the game the majority, including me, was for D1 lynching, making sciberbias post obsolete cause we won't be discussing policy anyway.It is clear that someone will hang at the end of the day.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't.
I never agreed to a plan:
On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote: Giovanni Falcone reporting in.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree.
On May 31 2012 07:58 Cattivik wrote: Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for? As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't.
But I was able to understand his logic concerning the difference between D1L/NL once he explained it. Also, there is one more tell for him being actually town: It's unlikely that such a mistake would happen to three mafia at the same time, who without doubt know each others' posts before they are out. In fact, posting in blue font confirms him as townie. Aswell as the fact that it would require a pretty solid plan for mafia to start with the first post, I don't see anything unfolding here though Obviously I took him into defense cause I don't want the most active posters to die first cause they have the balls to expose their neck to easy triggers who do all the work for the mafia by doing so. First and foremost, the lurkers and cautious ones have to get votes, else they can just keep lurking.
On May 31 2012 12:27 heist wrote: He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram).
He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority.
Based on the response to the previous quotes, I'm not just 'with' the majority, I've been part of it from the start of this game (for a D1 lynch before even knowing what sciberbias reasoning was). And it's in the best interest of the town to keep productive townies alive, sciberbia among them. I also don't like all this fingerpointing between active townies, if there are mafia still lurking, they can lean back.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
You confused something, first I said i want to LD1, then i defended sciberbia. I've never even considered a NL in this game, but I don't claim that it doesn't make sense in any situation.
In summary, the controversy about the policy talk seems to be dead to me. There is gonna be a D1 lynch. This is also a tl;dr version of the post for people who trust me anyway.
Here, my updated statements regarding some of the players posting so far:
Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
Ange777: Stop lurking. I'll vote for you.
Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this:
On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
##VOTE :Eishi_Ki
It was an ironic joke. Apologies if you didn't understand. It was said earlier that the scum and lurkers try to sway arguments towards the later hours. Unfortunately for me, the later hours are before I wake up and as such, my contributions at that time are going to be limited. An alibi in the form of my contract of employment can prove I live and work in Korea at the moment. To counter this, I'll try and check this and post as often as I can whilst I am awake. An inconvenient set of circumstances or a likely story, I'll let you decide.
What would you like to know about my thought processes? I can't tell you how my brains works, only that I analyse details at face value and then have a lot of time to think about them further. I noted initially that you were trying to sell that you were a Townie without saying so outright.
That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell,
I also noted you agreed with Sciberbia (or at least acknowledged his line of thought) on the issue of policy but still did not sway your recommendation.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
On May 31 2012 20:20 Cattivik wrote: Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
I am totally not making fun of anything here, i'm just ready to kick some mafia butt. And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier.
I wasn't all that serious about the marked part, just a bit of roleplay Back to the topic: By my lynch logic I want to hear something useful from the lurkers. Since you don't know what to say, you're still a lurker. No target set, no analysis. If you look at the posts, who would you want to lynch? If all the mafia already talked, we might lose townies who don't know what to say or assert. An acceptable loss in light of the information retrieved. No offense.
On May 31 2012 21:13 Eishi_Ki wrote: What would you like to know about my thought processes? I can't tell you how my brains works, only that I analyse details at face value and then have a lot of time to think about them further. I noted initially that you were trying to sell that you were a Townie without saying so outright.
That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell,
Oh, you can tell me what you thought. This argument of yours makes you appear even more scummy. Why? It's selective! Did you read Heists' post?It's even more recent than mine, he uses the collective form more times than me, yet you say i'm suspicious. Either you were sloppy, or you are scum trying to let me look suspicious, in latter case: Does that mean I was on the right track?Or that Heist is scum aswell? Before going on, I'll quote Heist:
On May 31 2012 09:34 heist wrote: Sciberbia, you wanted our opinion on the matter of a NL Day 1.... I strongly,strongly disagree with a NL.
The issue isn't with the unknown setup. It doesn't matter. No matter what the setup is, we should always go through with a Day 1 lynch. The flaw with your logic is that the lynches are not pure probability. We are not condemning some poor soul to death from a name in a hat. It is based on people's reactions to pressure, contradictions, activity level, and other information generated by discussion. When someone dies, most of us should be feeling comfortable with it. If anything, the purpose of a Day 1 lynch is not some slim chance of lynching mafia, but for information. Information we can use to lead the course of Day 2 and onward.
In your scenario, every lynch is an isolated incident. The lynches of each day are not independent. The outcome of a Day 1 lynch WILL affect the outcome of the Day 2 lynch, and only for the better because of all us will have a clearer picture of the situation.
---
In other news: I wanted to suggest a few things to town that you may or may not find useful:
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
3. This is a newbie game. Most people don't know what to do as a blue role. Pretend you don't have it. Seriously, most people with a blue role are afraid to stick their head out and, as a result, are often mistaken for scum. We don't want to hang you so please don't give us a reason. Be active.
4. Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
---
@Cattivik "Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game."
That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here.
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you. If you admit you are scum now, you may choose the way you get lynched, Eishi_Ki, like being drowned in single malt whisky to have a last taste of your country. I'll keep the vote locked in.
On May 31 2012 21:13 Eishi_Ki wrote: I also noted you agreed with Sciberbia (or at least acknowledged his line of thought) on the issue of policy but still did not sway your recommendation.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Just observations
Forgot to add this between last quotation and last statement, which doesn't concern heist, but still Eishi_Ki.
Also, I wouldn't call this a duel. Eishi_ki expressed his opinion in light of two other posts against me, however with a selective argument he used to blend in. I don't accuse everyone who accuses me without proper reasons, by that logic i would have accused others before Eishi_Ki.
My two current reads are one Cattivik and Unforgiven_ve.
I find Cattivik's voting on Eishi_ki misguided. I think Eishi_ki's posts are, while limited, atleast adding to the discussion. Cattivik gives me the impression of someone who is trying to post a lot without saying much and is squirming under bit of pressure and trying to bandwagon.
If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
On May 31 2012 20:20 Cattivik wrote: Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
I am totally not making fun of anything here, i'm just ready to kick some mafia butt. And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier.
I wasn't all that serious about the marked part, just a bit of roleplay Back to the topic: By my lynch logic I want to hear something useful from the lurkers. Since you don't know what to say, you're still a lurker. No target set, no analysis. If you look at the posts, who would you want to lynch? If all the mafia already talked, we might lose townies who don't know what to say or assert. An acceptable loss in light of the information retrieved. No offense.
On May 31 2012 21:13 Eishi_Ki wrote: What would you like to know about my thought processes? I can't tell you how my brains works, only that I analyse details at face value and then have a lot of time to think about them further. I noted initially that you were trying to sell that you were a Townie without saying so outright.
That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell,
Oh, you can tell me what you thought. This argument of yours makes you appear even more scummy. Why? It's selective! Did you read Heists' post?It's even more recent than mine, he uses the collective form more times than me, yet you say i'm suspicious. Either you were sloppy, or you are scum trying to let me look suspicious, in latter case: Does that mean I was on the right track?Or that Heist is scum aswell? Before going on, I'll quote Heist:
On May 31 2012 09:34 heist wrote: Sciberbia, you wanted our opinion on the matter of a NL Day 1.... I strongly,strongly disagree with a NL.
The issue isn't with the unknown setup. It doesn't matter. No matter what the setup is, we should always go through with a Day 1 lynch. The flaw with your logic is that the lynches are not pure probability. We are not condemning some poor soul to death from a name in a hat. It is based on people's reactions to pressure, contradictions, activity level, and other information generated by discussion. When someone dies, most of us should be feeling comfortable with it. If anything, the purpose of a Day 1 lynch is not some slim chance of lynching mafia, but for information. Information we can use to lead the course of Day 2 and onward.
In your scenario, every lynch is an isolated incident. The lynches of each day are not independent. The outcome of a Day 1 lynch WILL affect the outcome of the Day 2 lynch, and only for the better because of all us will have a clearer picture of the situation.
---
In other news: I wanted to suggest a few things to town that you may or may not find useful:
1. DO NOT claim you are a vanilla townie. We won't believe you AND you should be glad to die in place of a blue. We don't want to limit the pool of possible blues.
2. Attention DT (if we have one) - Let's say you get a lucky check on scum. Do not reveal yourself day 2. Do not come screaming into the thread with your pants still at your feet. You are not guaranteed a medic. Breadcrumb your result. Look at their behavior and create an accusation. Anything is better than a reveal.
3. This is a newbie game. Most people don't know what to do as a blue role. Pretend you don't have it. Seriously, most people with a blue role are afraid to stick their head out and, as a result, are often mistaken for scum. We don't want to hang you so please don't give us a reason. Be active.
4. Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
---
@Cattivik "Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game."
That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here.
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you. If you admit you are scum now, you may choose the way you get lynched, Eishi_Ki, like being drowned in single malt whisky to have a last taste of your country. I'll keep the vote locked in.
What exactly are you accusing me of which I should be rebutting? Posting my thoughts which, you may note, were not solely about you? Or of not being available at 4-7am? I'm not sure exactly what I was voted for. You called me out on my thoughts and I justified them. You are inflating what I said into a full blown accusation on my part which I don't really think is necessary.
Maybe I am Mafia. Maybe I'm not. Opinion has no bearing on the truth and I can honestly say; I'm not one of the ones you are looking for. All there is to say about this really.
Anyway, onto others.
Suki has so far been very vague so far and has not committed to any camp. He also hasn't posted in a while so I'd like to hear his stances on the last page or so of updates.
Finally, Xatalos. You have been judging many people's posts so far and accusing them of not being committed enough, threatening them if they don't improve their posts or praising them for doing a good job, all the while not actually contributing very much yourself. Any reason ser? What are your thoughts on people outside of the quality of their posts?
And Superouman, I liked the RP for what it's worth, but let's try and keep the spam to a minimum
@Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum.
"Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good."
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
Sorry, i wont play to "impress" you or anyone, i play for town benefit.
1) What "contributions"? what filter are you talking about? I just posted one time after the day started, of course is "safe", its one post about generalitys and how i think the game shoud be played.
2) Town should discuss everything, i agree on that, but in a newbie game we need to have some kind of structure (same as normal games i think)...im not saying we should vote or choose a leader, i ment, if someone wants to take that spot, take in account all i said in that post
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest
3) If you really read and interpret my post, you'd find this
especially those lurkers who goes super active the last hours of the day, we have to keep an eye on them
he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia)
At day 1 (at least for me) we have to use timing and votting patterns to our gaing, when you just throw a bunch of FoS and Votes in every post you do you are actually helping the mafia, just making townies reasoning harder whit every post you do.
I agree we have to pressure people and make them talk, but we have to do this whitout being PARANOICS, again, this just helps mafia. Raise your case, make a couple post pointing out what you belive about someones filter, keep your FoS to yourself AT LEAST FOR THE BEGGINING OF THE DAY.
(i see it coming) Dont interpret this as some kind of "HEY GUYZ HE'S JUST TRIYING TO MAKE US PASSIVE AND DONT DISCUSSS LETS LYNCH HIM LOLZ I LOVE LOLCATZ"...im saying Play it smart, lets take safe steps every vote counts, every FoS counts, every post someone makes about finding something suspicious SHOULD count.
On May 31 2012 22:37 Eishi_Ki wrote: Finally, Xatalos. You have been judging many people's posts so far and accusing them of not being committed enough, threatening them if they don't improve their posts or praising them for doing a good job, all the while not actually contributing very much yourself. Any reason ser? What are your thoughts on people outside of the quality of their posts?
It's better to force the lurking and wishy-washy players to take some stances before starting a major lynch effort. My biggest mistake in the previous game was to start pushing a lynch right at the start, while the actual Mafia just coasted by and lurked in peace. An active and transparent player like sciberbia is less likely to be Mafia than someone who doesn't post any content.
On May 31 2012 22:40 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum.
"Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good."
Food for thought.
Be careful of connection play. It can lead to many bad judgement calls and trap you in a bad line of thought. The right time to make connections is after someone flips Mafia, not after you think someone might flip Mafia.
If I had to vote right now, I'd vote for Unforgiven_ve. He seems like the one most likely to flip Mafia (as I already detailed). It's hard to make sense of what Superouman is posting, but unless he starts doing something townie at last, he's also pretty high up there. Ange777 hasn't done anything for the discussion either.
My initial impression of Cattivik was town, and it hasn't still changed. The bandwagon against him feels out of place, considering there are several undoubtedly more suspicious players than him out there. Look at the filters of Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777 and Cattivik and tell me why Cattivik should be our lynch for today. I'm pretty sure at least one of the other three are Mafia, and that there is at least one Mafia among the Cattivik bandwagon.
For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect
On May 31 2012 23:25 Xatalos wrote:t's hard to make sense of what Superouman is posting, but unless he starts doing something townie at last, he's also pretty high up there.
I try to figure out how to play the game right now, i just understand the rules for now
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
Sorry, i wont play to "impress" you or anyone, i play for town benefit.
1) What "contributions"? what filter are you talking about? I just posted one time after the day started, of course is "safe", its one post about generalitys and how i think the game shoud be played.
2) Town should discuss everything, i agree on that, but in a newbie game we need to have some kind of structure (same as normal games i think)...im not saying we should vote or choose a leader, i ment, if someone wants to take that spot, take in account all i said in that post
he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia)
At day 1 (at least for me) we have to use timing and votting patterns to our gaing, when you just throw a bunch of FoS and Votes in every post you do you are actually helping the mafia, just making townies reasoning harder whit every post you do.
I agree we have to pressure people and make them talk, but we have to do this whitout being PARANOICS, again, this just helps mafia. Raise your case, make a couple post pointing out what you belive about someones filter, keep your FoS to yourself AT LEAST FOR THE BEGGINING OF THE DAY.
(i see it coming) Dont interpret this as some kind of "HEY GUYZ HE'S JUST TRIYING TO MAKE US PASSIVE AND DONT DISCUSSS LETS LYNCH HIM LOLZ I LOVE LOLCATZ"...im saying Play it smart, lets take safe steps every vote counts, every FoS counts, every post someone makes about finding something suspicious SHOULD count.
Finally you posted something, but it's not what I was hoping for from a town Unforgiven_ve. More like what I expected from a Mafia Unforgiven_ve.
Your post reeks of anger and fear, not something town should be feeling in your situation. You even admit you're looking really bad right now: "(i see it coming)". Why not do something to change your situation then? Why continue being useless, angry and antagonizing?
This response convinced me. It's time to get the ball rolling.
Hello everyone. I just woke up so I apologize for the lack of posts on my part. I went through what happened in the thread after I left off last night, so let me post some observations...
MiltonKram
On May 31 2012 16:13 Miltonkram wrote: Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
First, the ability to change your vote kind of lessens the importance of Milton's extremely fast voting, and sort of discounts a lot of my initial suspicions of him, but his response to criticism is... lackluster at best. I find it interesting that after making such a big action early on, he's content to simply apologize, meekly acknowledge that sciberbia's math was right and recede his vote...
On May 31 2012 19:11 Miltonkram wrote: I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game...
And yet he still sits on the fence about sciberbia, and 'everyone else'. Just like s0lstice, I find it suspicious that he's so aggressive without conviction. Only after prodding (5 hours after he receded his vote), does he start sharing his thoughts about other players, and even then he only targets three, two for being lurkers and one for a glaring contradiction. He fails to make any committing calls for action.
Finally, although I suspect that his apology was directed to everyone, he did not respond to my question, when my entire first post was directed towards asking him his motivations in voting (the fact that he didn't respond to me is suspicious to me regardless of how valid my points actually were).
Miltonkram, I'm keeping my eye on you.
Eishi_Ki
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote:
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.
The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
Unforgiven
Unforgiven seems to be the hot topic of the day, for his inconsistencies. I agree that he seems really suspicious. He also hasn't even accused anyone yet, much less contributed anything other than generalities and apologize for his english.
Really scummy. For the sake of brevity, I'll keep this short, but I'm willing to expand on my thoughts on Unforgiven if asked.
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
It may change later but for now I feel he is the most suspicious one in the game.
I'd also be up for a lurker vote on day 1.. From reading everyone's opinions it seems lurkers can be really dangerous. In which case, I'll call out Ange777 and superouman.
'Cause i dont have to change anything, there's not a "situation" its just you triying to take that "leader" spot im talking about. I guess "reek" means "full of" or something like that, not what im triying to project i guess.
The only thing i feel is a overeager feeling from you to start a bandwagon, seeing as we still have one whole day left i see this unnecessary.
also, i see you are not a pretty good reader, im not saying im looking bad, im saying people (like you) will try to decontextualize everything someones post.
Miltonkram has finally understood the point sciberbia was trying to make
...
Also, there is one more tell for him being actually town: It's unlikely that such a mistake would happen to three mafia at the same time, who without doubt know each others' posts before they are out. In fact, posting in blue font confirms him as townie. Aswell as the fact that it would require a pretty solid plan for mafia to start with the first post, I don't see anything unfolding here though Obviously I took him into defense cause I don't want the most active posters to die first cause they have the balls to expose their neck to easy triggers who do all the work for the mafia by doing so.
...
You confused something, first I said i want to LD1, then i defended sciberbia.
...
I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority.
Cattivik's entire defence of his innocence in the initial stages of the game seems to revolve around him either knowing or not knowing whether sciberbia is a townie.
He also throws out a vote for Eishi, because he claims Eishi says he has 'a reason to keep lurking.' I didn't see anything of this sort in Eishi's posts. The only thing close is the very reasonable statement that he lives in Korea so his schedule is different from everyone else. It feels like his vote is purely a defensive reaction to Eishi calling him out.
On May 31 2012 11:47 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Cattivik Your posting reads so early, with not alot of actual content to date. Early days yet, though remember i'm watching you.
Miltonkram what a great post before work. I agree with all points you've said and want anyone who want's to discuss policy to just read that post. I slightly agree with your position on sciberbia as he is promoting policy discussion about no-lynch, however i agree that mafia first post is improbable. My main suspicion lies with Cattivik, though once sciberbia posts some responses to your accusation i will consider a vote on him.
##FOS: Cattivik
Miltonkram has finally understood the point sciberbia was trying to make, you also agree on my point about him most likely not being mafia due to first post. His post has generated most discussion so far. Probably more than by just voting for someone based on a gut feeling. From the start of the game the majority, including me, was for D1 lynching, making sciberbias post obsolete cause we won't be discussing policy anyway.It is clear that someone will hang at the end of the day.
Your reasoning makes sense, sciberbia, it also allows to choose a lynch with more information available, however returning less information in the beginning.
I would still go for the lynch. At least to get rid of pesky lurkers and inactives, in case there's noone stinking of scum already.
Look at this beginning statement. He agrees with Sciberbia's plan, but decides to support the complete opposite? CONTRADICTION. To me, this looks like he's going with the popular opinion (afraid to rock the boat) while simultaneously seeming to offer him support and defense. Either you agree or you don't.
I never agreed to a plan:
On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote: Giovanni Falcone reporting in.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree.
On May 31 2012 07:58 Cattivik wrote: Sounds like he thought that a medic setup could save a townie from being lynched, but what for? As far as i know the alignment isn't revealed unless the target dies, in this case it won't.
But I was able to understand his logic concerning the difference between D1L/NL once he explained it. Also, there is one more tell for him being actually town: It's unlikely that such a mistake would happen to three mafia at the same time, who without doubt know each others' posts before they are out. In fact, posting in blue font confirms him as townie. Aswell as the fact that it would require a pretty solid plan for mafia to start with the first post, I don't see anything unfolding here though Obviously I took him into defense cause I don't want the most active posters to die first cause they have the balls to expose their neck to easy triggers who do all the work for the mafia by doing so. First and foremost, the lurkers and cautious ones have to get votes, else they can just keep lurking.
On May 31 2012 12:27 heist wrote: He seems to really trust Sciberbia based solely on his activity and the notion that "first post can't be mafia" (I mentioned this before). His further reasoning: "Sciberbia is not promoting a NL, he's questioning a day 1 lynch". No. Sciberbia is definitely promoting a NL. It's been obvious since his reasoning. He attempts to remove heat from Sciberbia, over promoting his townie-ness and attacking others who place suspicion on him. He tries to deflect all opposition from Sciberbia, which at this point, is frankly strange. (look at his analysis on Solstice and Miltonkram).
He goes out of his way to defend him and his plan while being careful not stick his neck out by staying with the town majority.
Based on the response to the previous quotes, I'm not just 'with' the majority, I've been part of it from the start of this game (for a D1 lynch before even knowing what sciberbias reasoning was). And it's in the best interest of the town to keep productive townies alive, sciberbia among them. I also don't like all this fingerpointing between active townies, if there are mafia still lurking, they can lean back.
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
You confused something, first I said i want to LD1, then i defended sciberbia. I've never even considered a NL in this game, but I don't claim that it doesn't make sense in any situation.
In summary, the controversy about the policy talk seems to be dead to me. There is gonna be a D1 lynch. This is also a tl;dr version of the post for people who trust me anyway.
Here, my updated statements regarding some of the players posting so far:
Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
Ange777: Stop lurking. I'll vote for you.
Superouman: Stop making fun of a tragedy and sleeping all day, but more especially, stop lurking. I'll vote for you too when the time is ripe.
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this:
On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
##VOTE :Eishi_Ki
I'll try to break it down. Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie. I think that's what the rest of us has a hard time seeing. Your faith in him is just ridiculously high at this point that it's creating a lot of suspicion. You keep using these short justifying statements such as "he posted first, he can't be mafia""he accidentally used blue font, he can't be mafia" that in all honesty don't say anything at all about alignment. Just because someone mistakenly uses blue font, you cannot confirm them as town. Sciberbia doesn't even need to be mafia. You can be scum, trying to win over a fellow townie by being the only one coming to his defense.
And the one time you branch out of Sciberbia defense, you hastily vote to lynch someone that is accusing you. Your subsequent attack on eishi seems really out of place and reactionary. I'm just not seeing how after all this he's the one you think is most scummy.
Sciberbia I would really like your opinion on Cattivik. Go through his filter, almost every single one of his posts is him defending you. Naturally I'm still quite suspicious.
Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.
The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
I'm not trying to increase the level of suspicion but I will say that just because he has been calling people out as having scummy behaviour, does not mean he himself is scum-free.
Regarding Unforgiven; commenting on this is a lose-lose-lose for me. People have noted my behaviour as being bandwagony so if I vote for him, I have that. If I say he is innocent, that is also highly suspicious and if I don't comment, I'm avoiding the biggest issue of the day. Know that I do have my opinions on the matter, if anyone cares to broach the subject, they can PM me.
Good time to ask, are we allowed to PM?
If not, I'll post my opinions here tomorrow.
@Superouman, there are plenty of posts by now to gather how to type, you just need to post with some more substance
Haven't heard from sciberbia in a while, what's the happy hap with you? It seems after your flurry of activity, you went very silent...
And finally my suspicions regarding Suki have been somewhat alleviated, but not entirely. If you want me to comment on someone, ask me to.
I'm away to bed now, I'll check back in the morning for you guys.
and for the record, I'd like to die via freefall from 40000ft. Drowning in whisky just isn't rock and roll enough
On June 01 2012 00:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The only thing i feel is a overeager feeling from you to start a bandwagon, seeing as we still have one whole day left i see this unnecessary.
It's the opposite, really. I've been very patient with you, considering your horrible first posts, long absence, and now this angry and useless response. Why don't you do something to convince everyone of your innocence instead of dodging the issue?
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
Cattivik has indeed posted some questionable statements. It's still not enough to make me think he is Mafia. He was the very first poster to push the Mafia hunt, to call out lurkers, to call out suspicious behaviour. If that isn't town play, I don't know what is. Some stupid statements like "confirmed town" don't yet make someone Mafia.
More importantly, I want to see something from you, Superouman. So far you have just posted generalities and useless banter. Do you think Cattivik is Mafia? Do you think Unforgiven_ve is Mafia? Do you have any other opinions?
@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
@ Superouman: I'd love to hear your thoughts on some candidates, more than a simple "let's kill lurkers, they ruin town atmosphere". It sounds good in theory, but.... no names, no analysis, just something easily said and ultimately something town can't really use. So looking forward to some more posts from you
@Ange77: I hope you blow me away to make up for not contributing much. No pressure
I can sympathize with the language issue, it's not something that should be held against you. That said, your defense was pretty jumbled. You didn't touch on why you discouraged meta-game arguments, and the related contradiction I asked you to explain. I found it difficult to follow who your defense was specifically addressing.
You predicted that we would question why you are telling people to slow down with their accusations, and you're absolutely right there. It's very weird for a townie to tell everyone not to pursue their reads aggressively. The clock is always ticking, and 48 hours goes by quickly.
I don't want to lock in my vote until I hear more from you, but your defense has done nothing to allay my suspicions. People accusing cattivik
Consider both sides of the spectrum. Can you really not see a logical town motivation behind his posts thus far? Getting in everyone's faces, tunneling Eishi_Ki, and staunch, energetic defense of his actions. He has been very active thus far. I don't agree with his methods, but they sure as hell read town to me.
Don't make mountains out of molehills. Consider not just his words, but the aims behind them. Cattivik and Eishi_Ki
Frankly I think you are both wrong about each other. I'm not as sure on Eishi_Ki as I am on Cattivik, but I can say definitively that your (Cattavik) case on Eishi_Ki is really weak. You decided to vote for him based on the fact that his schedule means he can't be around during lynch time, and him wondering if it's a good thing that he isn't around during that time. Regarding that second point, others in the thread were discussing about how scum and lurkers can sway the vote at the last minute.
You are making too much out of what amounts to basically nothing, and longer you pursue it, the less objective it's going to become. Be self-aware of tunneling, and consider outside input on your suspicions.
Just woke up. I'm quite happy about the amount of activity in the last 12 hours. I'll be reading the thread and posting my thoughts within the next couple hours.
On June 01 2012 00:08 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The only thing i feel is a overeager feeling from you to start a bandwagon, seeing as we still have one whole day left i see this unnecessary.
It's the opposite, really. I've been very patient with you, considering your horrible first posts, long absence, and now this angry and useless response. Why don't you do something to convince everyone of your innocence instead of dodging the issue?
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
Cattivik has indeed posted some questionable statements. It's still not enough to make me think he is Mafia. He was the very first poster to push the Mafia hunt, to call out lurkers, to call out suspicious behaviour. If that isn't town play, I don't know what is. Some stupid statements like "confirmed town" don't yet make someone Mafia.
More importantly, I want to see something from you, Superouman. So far you have just posted generalities and useless banter. Do you think Cattivik is Mafia? Do you think Unforgiven_ve is Mafia? Do you have any other opinions?
This is too soon for me to say if someone is mafia, every thought i would give is based on nothing than assumptions and i hate hurrying myself to go to a conclusion
On June 01 2012 01:36 s0Lstice wrote: You decided to vote for him based on the fact that his schedule means he can't be around during lynch time, and him wondering if it's a good thing that he isn't around during that time.
You mean his joke?Yes, I didn't get the joke.
My main points (which I wonder you don't know, cause they were at the beginning of my argumentation against him) are that he just started posting after two accusations were out, with the claim of me talking of 'us' townies with the purpose of making myself sound as if I were one, while heist, a few posts above, does exactly the same thing I did.
So Eishi_Ki bandwagoned with a very weak claim, a very small post and no pressure to post in the future cause of his schedule.
Also, notice how once confronted with his weak claim he suddenly accuses three other people but not me anymore. He must have noticed that his claim is really weak and is now dodging the accusations. He also denied a statement concerning the weak claim instead asking what the accusation is. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298¤tpage=8#143
I think there is not enough information on unforgiven, except for a nonexistent post analysis. He gave general tips so far, then he agreed with statements from other players without questioning them and without posting something concrete.
I'll stick to my opinion regarding sciberbia and Eishi_Ki. In case I won't have a majority on Eishi_Ki, I'll try to help achieve the majority on the case i believe is most correct in order to get a Day 1 lynch 100%.
That is not good enough Superouman. Here I'll bold it for you: not good enough
If you can't be bothered to share your thoughts, even if they are only fledgling thoughts, then why are you playing? Why should we keep you alive? At best you are a rogue vote, and at worst you are scum. Do you not see that from our point of view, you not wanting to comment on the events happening around you makes you look useless and scummy?
The longer you do this, the more and more I want to kill you off day 1 so you aren't left herp derping around later on.
On June 01 2012 02:04 Superouman wrote: And from my first mafia game ever point of view, the first day is no more than a lottery
The first day is not a lottery, though, and even if it was, the information that we gain from everyone posting their thoughts is invaluable in the later stages of the game. You NEED to post your opinions, and you need to post them often. Your Day 1 posts may be the only thing keeping you from getting lynched come Day 4 or whatever.
I'm starting to see why people dislike lurkers so much. Over time, we may find out more clear reads on Cattivik and Unforgiven_ve by analysing their posts, but someone who doesn't contribute will a) never give a read and b) will be a wildcard come voting time and may not properly push the town's agenda.
I did somehow miss that first part of your argument against Eishi_Ki. Bandwangoning can definitely be scummy, but on its own its not a sure-fire scum tell. Sometimes people just think alike and want their voices heard. It's every townie's perogative to build up content and contribute, and it's just not possible for it to all be original. This is especially true when the sample size is small (day 1).
Regarding how he defends, he pretty much addressed your concerns, The reason it looked paltry is because your case is paltry. There just isn't a lot to explain. He's not around at X time, can't be helped. He posted his thoughts on you, which were similar to what others were thinking. And the joke was...well, a joke. He moved on because he was done with your points, as I see it.
I won't try to dissuade you further, but know that I think your case is not very strong at the moment.
Consider both sides of the spectrum. Can you really not see a logical town motivation behind his posts thus far? Getting in everyone's faces, tunneling Eishi_Ki, and staunch, energetic defense of his actions. He has been very active thus far. I don't agree with his methods, but they sure as hell read town to me.
Don't make mountains out of molehills. Consider not just his words, but the aims behind them.
s0lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you, but don't you think it's strange that cattivik seems so confident that sciberbia is town, simply from the first few posts in Day 1? It just strikes me as really off.
The fact that he was so quick to lash out at Eishi_Ki may just be 'getting in his face', and I suppose both sides of the argument seem pretty petty all things considered.. But I'm not so sure that you can say that his actions strictly read town.
Cattivik, I think the discussion regarding the earlier posts of Eishi_Ki and sciberbia should be set aside for a moment. I'd like to hear your opinions on other players.
Cattivik has been 100% confident in all of his opinions so far. Frankly it would be more strange if he wasn't. His reasoning is that sciberbia got in the thread early, and really got discussion going. He posted a day 1 strategy that, while not popular, was good intentioned and sound enough logically. He stuck to it, and wasn't shy about it. To me it looked like he got his role pm, then got right to it crafting a good post that would get us talking and perhaps give us a direction.
While I'm not about to guarantee that sciberbia is town, I read his posts as pretty strongly town; cattavik just took the sentiment to the extreme. His pursuit of Eishi_Ki is similarly extreme. Like I said, I don't necessarily agree with his methods or conclusions, but the objective is to smoke out scum. I just don't see scum putting themselves in the spotlight so deliberately like he is. Scum in general are terrified of being held accountable for positions they took in the past, so they don't come down hard on any issue without a lot of thought and a measure of caution.
First things first. Cattivik, you had a name change of some sort? I woke up and checked the thread and it really confused me for a minute.
Cattivik/Vivax is my top scum read as of this moment. Both Golden and heist have elaborated most of the reasons he seems scummy so I won't repeat them. There is one possible scumslip by him that I think they missed though.
---snip Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell.
Notice how in this section of his post he just points out the three most active/content filled posters at the time. He may be trying to buddy up to those he thinks might be the most influential in the thread. I did the same thing in my last game when I was scum.
His attack on Eishi_Ki is just bad. Looks like scum floundering to me. The attack looks more like he's trying to say, "hey, look at me! I'm doing something that should make me look pro-town!" rather than actually helping the town.
I'm off to class for a bit, but I'll check back in a few hours from now.
OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything.
I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons: 1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today 2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik
I think Cattivik is most likely townie
The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely? 1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally. 2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death. 3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.
Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.
One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.
Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.
On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.
One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?
Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.
Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.
His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.
This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.
As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.
As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.
I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours.
Cattivik here, I just had my name changed <_< , hope noone gets confused.
Anyway, suki wanted some opinions on other players, so I'll put sciberbia and Eishi_Ki aside.
Alright, where should I start. Let's start with you, suki: You have 5 substantial posts so far, excluding those answering game related questions or correcting formal mistakes. Your first stance was expressed after Miltons' vote against sciberbia. You believe sciberbia to have posted in the towns' interest. So do I, that's why I defend him.And the argument of mafia not posting first in a newbie game doesn't seem wrong to me. You seem to support cases especially against unforgiven_ve, then Milton, then Eishi, then me. Frankly, I don't think you are mafia.
On to s0lstice: Very focused on unforgiven_ve, but also very eager to get opinions and wake up the lurkers. Rather than focusing on the exposed ones, he's getting the guys behind first, without doubt he's working pro-town and not afraid to defend people who he believes are townies, in this case me. The first post didn't look decise, but everything following convinced me of your town alignment.
Xatalos: First trying to get the lurkers, now he's pushing the case against unforgiven_ve along with s0lstice. Not seen too much of a hard stance except for the one on unforgiven yet. But I'm pretty sure you are townie aswell.
Miltonkram: He suspected sciberbia before understanding his point of view and apologized accordingly, suki found that apology a little suspicious, I don't. I think it's strange you have a scumread about me trying to buddy up with someone. I immediately dismissed the NL option in the s0lstice case.Doesn't exactly support his post. Still, I believe you are townie.
O.golden_ne: Not sure why he's pushing the case against me so hard, then suspects Xatalos for defending me. Then he defends Eishi_ki against my accusations, saying he contributes more than me to the discussion. Actually, Eishi_ki started posting suspects after this post. Eishi's only claim before this post was that I am suspicious cause I spoke of 'we', the town. I think it's a really weak defense of Eishi and a weak case against me. More to my defense further down in the post. I do like that you also suspect the lurkers though. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
heist: One of the things I notice is that you didn't acknowledge my defence so far. You also didn't post a definite opinion in form of a vote or FoS. You gave general hints at the start. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
Superouman: The only thing you said which could haunt you as mafia later in the game is this:
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
The rest reflects a strong indecision. In one of his posts, he says he doesn't want to judge only based on assumptions. While such a Day1 attitude doesn't produce anything useful, he could just be making the mistakes of a noob townie. Cause of the neutrality of his posts I might vote for him in absence of another strong case. I believe Superouman to be scum or not confident enough. He just voted for sciberbia out of nowhere, whatever.
Unforgiven_ve
No cases, basically a resume of what has been posted so far. He might have felt the urge to post something positive cause he missed the timing when all the reccommendations were posted, or he might just try to blend in with the majority. There is a fairly strong case against him, although people have been accusing him fast. It might also just be a misunderstanding cause of the different languages, but we can't go for charity in this game, that's why I also suspect you of being scum.
Ange777: Permanent lurker. He promised he would contribute something soon. If it's not enough, I will vote for him first and unvote Eishi_Ki.
Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
The first to fall should be the lurkers. Killing me would also provide a nice bunch of information about peoples' motives for pushing against me, but naturally, I would like to avoid that.
And here comes Superouman. What pearl of wisdom will he drop on us from his time of absence? And its.......... a wild vote on Sciberbia from nowhere. I want a reason. A good reason.
heist: One of the things I notice is that you didn't acknowledge my defence so far. You also didn't post a definite opinion in form of a vote or FoS. You gave general hints at the start. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
Cattivik, I did respond. Filter me in case you missed it. And make no mistake you are still my #1 candidate, which I hope you got from the content and tone of my posts. I just don't like cementing early reads Day 1 with a formal vote, which in all honesty is pretty useless this early. It's enough for me to present my case against you to the town.
Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
Cattivik, what this argument amounts to is: I'm really active and because of that I'm bound to slip up as Mafia. Therefore, I can't be mafia since I wouldn't be so active to prevent slip-ups. Careful, you are very close to admitting that you are using your activity and extreme opinions as a shield to deflect every suspicious thing you are doing. Essentially you want us to disregard anything suspicious you might do because of how vulnerable you are putting yourself. Activity is protown, but by no means does it determine alignment.
I would take note of this: Solstice, Xatalos, & Sciberbia. I understand your arguments. You feel no mafia would put himself so out there with such a sustained defense. I'm not so convinced that mafia won't be so "extreme". I also don't have the benefit of knowing your alignment as you do Sciberbia.
The only thing tempering my opinion on Cattivik is actually my mostly town reading on Sciberbia. However, among the two leading candidates, unforgiven_ve and Cattivik, I am not really convinced of unforgiven's scumminess. He promised another post, and I'll reserve judgment till then. So I'll be sticking with Cattivik for the time being, BUT Superouman is rapidly rising in my suspicions.
Since it's getting late in europe and not much time remaining, i'll vote now
##Vote sciberbia
You do realize we have another 24 hours before lynch correct? If you really see something in sciberbia's play that you find suspicious make a case about it. Don't just throw his name out there.
Ummm yeah i should talk more but the thing is that i don't know what to say, this is kind of a blind pick for now, but i am always suspicious of people who talk too much at the beginning
---snip And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier.
For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect
Do you see the contradictions here? First you say not to talk too much and then you throw out a useless hypothetical situation. Afterwards you encourage lynching lurkers which is an extremely safe stance to take. How are we supposed to post? A lot? A little? These posts from you are not helping, and they are leaving us with very few stances to hold you to as the game goes along.
All I've seen while looking through your filter has been one or two line posts with very little content to them. This can mean either lazy town or mafia trying to keep from committing to too much information. These contentless posts are just as bad as lurking.
On May 31 2012 07:48 Vivax wrote: Giovanni Falcone reporting in.
Pro lynch, any information better than no information. Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods. Let's see who's active, i also remember a guy announcing exams, anyone silent will hang from the towns' tree.
Who is that guy? Did I miss anything?^^
The playerfield for me is: 1. ) Ange777 2. ) Xatalos 3. ) Suki 4. ) unforgiven_ve 5. ) O.Golden_ne 6. ) Cattivik 7. ) s0Lstice 8. ) Superouman 9. ) Eishi_Ki 10.) sciberbia 11.) heist 12.) Miltonkram
And I don't see his name in there lol
Edit: I send him a pm, so I screwed up the palyerfield somehow, a sec lol
@heist I don't really follow your stance on Cattivik. Could you please clearly explain how his defense of me has implicated him as mafia in your eyes? I agree that his behavior is out of the ordinary. But I would like to hear why you feel that his staunch defense of me is more likely a mafia move than a townie move.
@ Sciberbia There is no reason that one townie should be that sure of another townie, Day 1 especially. For me, there is absolutely no one that I'm so convinced of as Cattivik seems to be. So any attempt to deflect every single accusation on a fellow player is of course highly suspicious on my mind. Mafia tend to find it much safer to create a stance defending someone rather than accusing someone. Fewer repercussions. It suggests to me an ulterior motive.
And now he's starting to suggest that any indication of his scumminess needs to be disregarded precisely because he defends you to such an extent. It's convenient and not out of the realm of mafia possibilities. He is simply my most suspicious player especially since the alternatives are not very convincing at this point.
@heist So it seems you find it most likely that I am town, Cattivik is mafia, and he is just trying to gain townie cred. This is a reasonable hypothesis, but imo it's not that likely.
The tone of Cattivik's posts suggests to me that he is a very confident, aggresive player. And therefore it is in character to be more sure about his beliefs than most people would be. Also, he went out of his way to defend me. Nobody even asked his opinion.
The reason I ask is that under your hypothesis, your town-read of me should reinforce your mafia-read of Cattivik, rather than 'temper' it. I guess this is a bit counter-intuitive.
On June 01 2012 07:34 heist wrote: @ Sciberbia There is no reason that one townie should be that sure of another townie, Day 1 especially. For me, there is absolutely no one that I'm so convinced of as Cattivik seems to be. So any attempt to deflect every single accusation on a fellow player is of course highly suspicious on my mind. Mafia tend to find it much safer to create a stance defending someone rather than accusing someone. Fewer repercussions. It suggests to me an ulterior motive.
And now he's starting to suggest that any indication of his scumminess needs to be disregarded precisely because he defends you to such an extent. It's convenient and not out of the realm of mafia possibilities. He is simply my most suspicious player especially since the alternatives are not very convincing at this point.
Townies not being sure of each other is ideal for mafia, it doesn't limit the pool of suspects, which is actually what I'm trying to do and you are disrupting. When we lynch with no read and maximum pool of suspects, we shoot fish in a barrel. When we limit the pool of suspects, the barrel gets smaller, the fishes might get louder.
You might aswell say, we don't know anything except for me defending people who i believe are townies, which is incomplete, I have already pushed my case against Eishi_Ki but will obviously have to focus on other cases since I won't find a majority for that one in day 1.
I create my stances in all possible ways on restricted cases, that's how a townie should play. Mafia creates stances maybe even defending townies when it's possible for them to blend in while doing so (notice how I am actually the first guy supporting sciberbia?). It also causes A LOT of repercussions for me, as opposed to your generalized argument. Also, when mafia gives advice, they will try to not adress problems in the thread, but try to give more generic advice everyone probably knows already. That also helps them blend in without creating vulnerable points for later.
With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one. Also, start voting for a lynch if you think I'm mafia. Town won't like you for being opportunistic and go for votes you didn't push by yourself, that allows for jumping on the most convenient bandwagon.
Trying to catch up with the thread at 1:30 am is not that effective ....
Out of the three players that already got a vote Unforgiven seems the most scummy. As townie your vote is always your strongest weapon for the scumhunt. I don't say that you should random vote other players but once you have a good case it is always good to push and vote it. Until now your play seems very safe, a lot of fluffy posts.
But yes, I shouldn't be the one complaining when I am officially lurking. I even have to announce another day of lurking, but I promise some more (and BETTER!) action from me tomorrow before deadline!
On June 01 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote: @heist So it seems you find it most likely that I am town, Cattivik is mafia, and he is just trying to gain townie cred. This is a reasonable hypothesis, but imo it's not that likely.
The tone of Cattivik's posts suggests to me that he is a very confident, aggresive player. And therefore it is in character to be more sure about his beliefs than most people would be. Also, he went out of his way to defend me. Nobody even asked his opinion.
The reason I ask is that under your hypothesis, your town-read of me should reinforce your mafia-read of Cattivik, rather than 'temper' it. I guess this is a bit counter-intuitive.
My town read of you is definitely something that tempers my evaluation of Cattivik. The alternative of you being mafia, and Cattivik being your scumbuddy is a much more damning alternative and i would be pushing HARD, much harder than now, for a lynch.
On June 01 2012 07:34 heist wrote: @ Sciberbia There is no reason that one townie should be that sure of another townie, Day 1 especially. For me, there is absolutely no one that I'm so convinced of as Cattivik seems to be. So any attempt to deflect every single accusation on a fellow player is of course highly suspicious on my mind. Mafia tend to find it much safer to create a stance defending someone rather than accusing someone. Fewer repercussions. It suggests to me an ulterior motive.
And now he's starting to suggest that any indication of his scumminess needs to be disregarded precisely because he defends you to such an extent. It's convenient and not out of the realm of mafia possibilities. He is simply my most suspicious player especially since the alternatives are not very convincing at this point.
Townies not being sure of each other is ideal for mafia, it doesn't limit the pool of suspects, which is actually what I'm trying to do and you are disrupting. When we lynch with no read and maximum pool of suspects, we shoot fish in a barrel. When we limit the pool of suspects, the barrel gets smaller, the fishes might get louder.
You might aswell say, we don't know anything except for me defending people who i believe are townies, which is incomplete, I have already pushed my case against Eishi_Ki but will obviously have to focus on other cases since I won't find a majority for that one in day 1.
I create my stances in all possible ways on restricted cases, that's how a townie should play. Mafia creates stances maybe even defending townies when it's possible for them to blend in while doing so (notice how I am actually the first guy supporting sciberbia?). It also causes A LOT of repercussions for me, as opposed to your generalized argument. Also, when mafia gives advice, they will try to not adress problems in the thread, but try to give more generic advice everyone probably knows already. That also helps them blend in without creating vulnerable points for later.
With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one. Also, start voting for a lynch if you think I'm mafia. Town won't like you for being opportunistic and go for votes you didn't push by yourself, that allows for jumping on the most convenient bandwagon.
Townies not being sure of each other Day 1 is natural. There is almost no information to go. You, on the other hand, are almost completely convinced of Sciberbia's alignment almost from the first minute of this game. Again, this lynch is not a matter of probability. Our goal isn't to eliminate suspects by placing them in pro-town status and "shooting blindly" into the rest. Our goal is to actively find suspicious, scummy people. I think this is crucial. Do not try to find townies, try to find mafia. Townies not being sure of each is much better than blindly following one player, being so seduced that you will automatically disregard everyone who attempts to argue with you or that person.
I too am making and have been making my stance. And by now, I'm hoping you can see that spending Day 1 just defending one person is not helping town at all come lynch time. Even if you are right, eliminating the possibilties from 11 to 10 (excluding ourselves), this just isn't very useful. And before you keep going on and on about how my posts are generalized, that was isolated to my first post, which if you look at was not limited solely to generalized tips but also my take on the policy brought up by Sciberbia and my mention of you.
Finally, I don't need to vote yet. Day 1 is literally only half done. We have about 23 hours to further clarfiy the situation. As you've notced your single vote on Eishi isn't doing much. So yes, I'll reserve my vote. But I'll tell you exactly how I'm going to vote. Depending on how Superouman and Unforgiven post, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt this early on. But should they come back and start wowing me with subsequent posts and start establishing a better town atmosphere, you will be getting my vote.
Im going to really try to clear the suspicions abotu me (but i must confess i dont really see it).
First of all, my "contradictions"...dont use PAST games as a guide is the first one i think. Im saying this, because i see (and saw in the past game) some people talking about "meta-game", for me, when i read NEWBIE Mafia and some players triying to do indepth analysis based on a few, sometimes even ONE random post is just hilarious, i understand we have to get the ball rolling but again, i say, we have to do this in a smart way, not just throwing gazillions of FoS and votes.
Now, at this stage of the game and seeing the post count we have something to work on, still very little, but at least is something.
About the "town leader", is something that manifest for itself, i never said lets vote or something.
My "reads" so far:
The ridiculous aggresiveness im getting from Xatalos got me thinking about 2 things, he's just a really bad townie triying to use his ubber skills...or just a mafia playing in a pretty risky way (metagame uh?) I confess deep inside me i think its the first option, just a bad townie, contradiction and all, thats what my personal experience dictates.
My main suspect revolve around someone who have had some kind of agression but not making it too risky and not taking any pressure at all.
suki: his first post is about the NL d1 theme, and asking Miltonkram about his fst vote. His 3rd post is some semi-analysis about the people the town is talking about and to close his post he throws a vote against me, before make it clear "it may change"...then a couple more post naming Cattivik, Superouman and me.
That's it...he nevers really pressure someone, playing it really safe, his filter is short, he's just taunting Cattivik in hopes of preparing a Day 2 candidate.
For now on: ##Vote suki
but it may change uh?! ----------------------------------------- Im heading out to work (i work at night and study at day) i will make a post tomorrow about my second suspect. I can get online form my phone, if anyone wants to ask something please make a precise question and i'll try to answer it. It sucks to write a long post from the phone.
Honestly Superouman is pissing me off. His posts are empty, and few. While he is not lurking as hard as Ange777 i find him to be a useless irrational player. I would be happy to vote for him if we cant decide on who is the most scummy however i want to see some proper cases arising in the next few hours.
@Cattavik. I'm not sure how you can see my suspicions of you as baseless you post saying
On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote: Also, when mafia gives advice, they will try to not adress problems in the thread, but try to give more generic advice everyone probably knows already. That also helps them blend in without creating vulnerable points for later. .
however all of your post are pretty much that, you give general advice udner the guise of specific information by posting NAMES with vague rehashes of things that have been said. ugh. wtf is with the name change too ugh.
Alright Vivax, I'm still not a big fan of your play, but I'll give you some time off from defending yourself and answering questions. I'm not completely satisfied with your defense, but tunneling you mercilessly doesn't help anyone either. Please stop listing out who you think is town. It is just filler and distracts from our real goal here which is finding scum. It's fine for you to make a list of who you think is town and keep it to yourself, but posting a list of the towniest townies is also like posting a hit list for scum. If you need to list out your confirmed town reads, post it some time when the scum can't actually use it against us such as the end of N1 right before the deadline.
If you really are town, spend the time you would be using to defend yourself and post a decent case against a player or two.
In case it wasn't clear from my earlier post, I'm not too happy with either of the current top lynch candidates, Cattivik and Unforgiven. So I'm going to try to convince you guys to vote for someone I think actually has a good chance of being mafia.
My top scumread is currently suki. I think I have a pretty good case. For what it's worth, I typed up most of this post before unforgiven's recent accusation and vote on suki.
Here we go. Sorry for the lengthy post, but I've put a lot of time into it and I think there's some good points so I'd appreciate it if you all read the whole thing.
On May 31 2012 12:34 suki wrote: Simply voting to 'pressure' an explanation seems too flimsy - he could have simply asked for one and saved his pressure vote for later on if he needed it.
Rather, it feels like he has a distinct purpose in throwing out a vote that early, as if to say 'hey, I'm a townie because I'm not afraid to take bold actions'.
Let's say sciberbia is lynched on day 1 and turns out to be scum. Milton gains credibility for making a good read, and for being the first one to make it. On the other hand, if sciberbia is lynched and turns out to be town, Milton can hide behind the 'pressure vote' reasoning, and claim that it was too early to really know for sure when he made the vote.
And then there's the possibility that sciberbia isn't lynched at all, in which case his vote ends up making no real difference - except that he still gains some townie credibility for being bold enough to take action.
I'm leaning towards Milton being town, simply because it would take a pretty ballsy mafia to make such a move so early on, but between sciberbia and Milton, Milton is the more suspicious to me at the moment. Although I don't agree with a Day 1 NL, I find that sciberbia's motives for pushing of a Day 1 NL are sincere and at the very least is generating discussion (which is good for the town regardless), whereas Milton's vote is just confusing.
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote: Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...
Here are his first two posts in which he ponders Miltonkram's vote on me. I believe suki that he didn't know the rules about changing votes, but I still find this post a bit off.
First of all, his logic doesn't make sense to me. He recognizes the vote as confusing and thinks the reasoning behind it 'flimsy'. So far so good. He seems to be suggesting that Miltonkram might be mafia.
But then he analyzes the possible outcomes of the vote from the perspective that Miltonkram is town. Notice that suki considers the scenario that I am mafia. At that point in the game, it looked pretty damn unlikely that me and Milton were both mafia. So why is suki analyzing what a townie Miltonkram stands to gain from that vote? What's the point of that analysis?
Then he says that he's leaning toward Miltonkram being town. Makes his previous analysis even more pointless. He also pays me a nice compliment, which is definitely something a mafia might do: try to ally with the active posters.
Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
In Summary his first post contains some confusing, pointless analysis where he seems to be putting suspcion on Miltonkram, but then backs off of it
First, the ability to change your vote kind of lessens the importance of Milton's extremely fast voting, and sort of discounts a lot of my initial suspicions of him, but his response to criticism is... lackluster at best. I find it interesting that after making such a big action early on, he's content to simply apologize, meekly acknowledge that sciberbia's math was right and recede his vote...
And yet he still sits on the fence about sciberbia, and 'everyone else'. Just like s0lstice, I find it suspicious that he's so aggressive without conviction. Only after prodding (5 hours after he receded his vote), does he start sharing his thoughts about other players, and even then he only targets three, two for being lurkers and one for a glaring contradiction. He fails to make any committing calls for action.
Finally, although I suspect that his apology was directed to everyone, he did not respond to my question, when my entire first post was directed towards asking him his motivations in voting (the fact that he didn't respond to me is suspicious to me regardless of how valid my points actually were).
Miltonkram, I'm keeping my eye on you.
OK so before he said he was leaning toward Miltonkram being town. s0lstice stated he was suspicious of Miltonkram. Now suki piles on some suspicion, but is so damn wishy/washy about it. He describes Milton's response as "lackluster" and his actions as "interesting". Then he concludes by saying "I'm keeping my eye on you." All this seems scummy to me. He changes his mind about Milton, bandwaggoning with s0sltice, and is quite noncomittal about it.
Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.
The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
This also seems like scummy analysis. He piles suspicion on Eishi_Ki, but then says he doesn't think eishi_ki is scum. Again, what is the point of posting this analysis? It seems to me like he's just trying to make it look like he's doing analysis, without actually accusing anybody.
Also, remember how he complimented me on my posts before? Well here he is sucking up to Xatalos, who is another active poster and was directing a lot of discussion.
Unforgiven seems to be the hot topic of the day, for his inconsistencies. I agree that he seems really suspicious. He also hasn't even accused anyone yet, much less contributed anything other than generalities and apologize for his english.
Really scummy. For the sake of brevity, I'll keep this short, but I'm willing to expand on my thoughts on Unforgiven if asked.
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
It may change later but for now I feel he is the most suspicious one in the game.
He hasn't even mentioned unforgiven before, but now he jumps on the bandwaggon, simply agreeing with everyone else who thought Unforgiven was suspicious. Suki, you said you'd be willing to expand your thoughts on Unforgiven. I'd appreciate it if you did.
On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote: I'd also be up for a lurker vote on day 1.. From reading everyone's opinions it seems lurkers can be really dangerous. In which case, I'll call out Ange777 and superouman.
Not the most damning statement, but certainly doesn't convince me he's town. He's trying to seem like a helpful noobie townie who is willing to go along with popular opinion and lynch lurkers. Take that for what it's worth.
On June 01 2012 00:27 suki wrote: Cattivik's entire defence of his innocence in the initial stages of the game seems to revolve around him either knowing or not knowing whether sciberbia is a townie.
He also throws out a vote for Eishi, because he claims Eishi says he has 'a reason to keep lurking.' I didn't see anything of this sort in Eishi's posts. The only thing close is the very reasonable statement that he lives in Korea so his schedule is different from everyone else. It feels like his vote is purely a defensive reaction to Eishi calling him out.
Add Cattivik to my scum list.
Really bandwaggony here. Heist, eishi_ki, and golden had all already accused cattivik. Suki basically just repeats their reasons and adds cattivik to his 'scum list'.
I don't think that this is necessarily scummy, but as you will see later, he becomes quite wishy/washy about Cattivik.
On June 01 2012 02:04 Superouman wrote: And from my first mafia game ever point of view, the first day is no more than a lottery
The first day is not a lottery, though, and even if it was, the information that we gain from everyone posting their thoughts is invaluable in the later stages of the game. You NEED to post your opinions, and you need to post them often. Your Day 1 posts may be the only thing keeping you from getting lynched come Day 4 or whatever.
I'm starting to see why people dislike lurkers so much. Over time, we may find out more clear reads on Cattivik and Unforgiven_ve by analysing their posts, but someone who doesn't contribute will a) never give a read and b) will be a wildcard come voting time and may not properly push the town's agenda.
States some pretty fluffy, non-controversial stuff. Doesn't take a hard stance on who we should lynch.
Consider both sides of the spectrum. Can you really not see a logical town motivation behind his posts thus far? Getting in everyone's faces, tunneling Eishi_Ki, and staunch, energetic defense of his actions. He has been very active thus far. I don't agree with his methods, but they sure as hell read town to me.
Don't make mountains out of molehills. Consider not just his words, but the aims behind them.
s0lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you, but don't you think it's strange that cattivik seems so confident that sciberbia is town, simply from the first few posts in Day 1? It just strikes me as really off.
The fact that he was so quick to lash out at Eishi_Ki may just be 'getting in his face', and I suppose both sides of the argument seem pretty petty all things considered.. But I'm not so sure that you can say that his actions strictly read town.
Cattivik, I think the discussion regarding the earlier posts of Eishi_Ki and sciberbia should be set aside for a moment. I'd like to hear your opinions on other players.
s0sltice addresses cattivik's accusers and defends cattivik against them. Now look how suki tries not to take a stance. He's "inclined to agree" with s0sltice. Whereas just a minute ago Cattivik was on his 'scum list', now he "supposes that both sides of the argument seem pretty petty". But he's "not so sure that you can say Cattivik's actions stricly read town". This is about as wishy/wasy as it gets. Scummy behavior.
In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia - he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything - he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance - he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik - he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos
@Town If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will...
@Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I guess what i'm trying to say is. scumslips will stay on the record, and chances are if they are scumslipping this early they'll continue as time goes on. Lurker however, if not dealt with early in the game where they are less of a % of the team, may end up in the final rounds where the % of town per player is alot higher and the responsibility of town individuals is even higher.
Nobody is going to accuse you of bandwagoning if you are directly asked your opinion on someone. That said, what is your opinion on Unforgiven?
I think he made a couple of posts promoting a town leader (which imo is a bad idea), I see no lack of conversation, therefore, no need to 'get the ball rolling' as you put it. The ball is already in motion. He then went away for a while, came back and saw a lot of people becoming suspicious of him and he panicked, dropped the idea of town leader very quickly but continued to remind everyone not to judge on past games to which no one so far has mentioned or even brought up in conversation. Probable mafia.
And here we go for my REVENGE post (huehue)
After dropping the subject of Vivax because there wasn't a lot to talk about, I now feel I have more substantial points. First off
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this: On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you. If you admit you are scum now, you may choose the way you get lynched, Eishi_Ki, like being drowned in single malt whisky to have a last taste of your country. I'll keep the vote locked in.
Continues on the warpath with no sway in opinion whatsoever.
Next post, after my rebuttal, he continues to press the issue.
On June 01 2012 01:36 s0Lstice wrote: You decided to vote for him based on the fact that his schedule means he can't be around during lynch time, and him wondering if it's a good thing that he isn't around during that time.
You mean his joke?Yes, I didn't get the joke.
My main points (which I wonder you don't know, cause they were at the beginning of my argumentation against him) are that he just started posting after two accusations were out, with the claim of me talking of 'us' townies with the purpose of making myself sound as if I were one, while heist, a few posts above, does exactly the same thing I did.
So Eishi_Ki bandwagoned with a very weak claim, a very small post and no pressure to post in the future cause of his schedule.
Also, notice how once confronted with his weak claim he suddenly accuses three other people but not me anymore. He must have noticed that his claim is really weak and is now dodging the accusations. He also denied a statement concerning the weak claim instead asking what the accusation is. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298¤tpage=8#143
I think there is not enough information on unforgiven, except for a nonexistent post analysis. He gave general tips so far, then he agreed with statements from other players without questioning them and without posting something concrete.
I'll stick to my opinion regarding sciberbia and Eishi_Ki. In case I won't have a majority on Eishi_Ki, I'll try to help achieve the majority on the case i believe is most correct in order to get a Day 1 lynch 100%.
And up to this point I STILL don't know what I was accused of. I never asserted that I was accusing you, only that I was suspicious. What do you want, a full accusation after you post a couple of times? I felt the need to contribute, and I did. Yes my points were weak but I frankly don't know anything about D1 vs D2 lynch so I opted out of saying anything in that regard. Plus, it was a dead horse.
Finally, since that point, I have said nothing regarding Vivax to sway or dissuade him (sleeping and working). But from going from a vehement hyper aggressive vote for myself to this....
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Cattivik here, I just had my name changed <_< , hope noone gets confused.
Anyway, suki wanted some opinions on other players, so I'll put sciberbia and Eishi_Ki aside.
Alright, where should I start. Let's start with you, suki: You have 5 substantial posts so far, excluding those answering game related questions or correcting formal mistakes. Your first stance was expressed after Miltons' vote against sciberbia. You believe sciberbia to have posted in the towns' interest. So do I, that's why I defend him.And the argument of mafia not posting first in a newbie game doesn't seem wrong to me. You seem to support cases especially against unforgiven_ve, then Milton, then Eishi, then me. Frankly, I don't think you are mafia.
On to s0lstice: Very focused on unforgiven_ve, but also very eager to get opinions and wake up the lurkers. Rather than focusing on the exposed ones, he's getting the guys behind first, without doubt he's working pro-town and not afraid to defend people who he believes are townies, in this case me. The first post didn't look decise, but everything following convinced me of your town alignment.
Xatalos: First trying to get the lurkers, now he's pushing the case against unforgiven_ve along with s0lstice. Not seen too much of a hard stance except for the one on unforgiven yet. But I'm pretty sure you are townie aswell.
Miltonkram: He suspected sciberbia before understanding his point of view and apologized accordingly, suki found that apology a little suspicious, I don't. I think it's strange you have a scumread about me trying to buddy up with someone. I immediately dismissed the NL option in the s0lstice case.Doesn't exactly support his post. Still, I believe you are townie.
O.golden_ne: Not sure why he's pushing the case against me so hard, then suspects Xatalos for defending me. Then he defends Eishi_ki against my accusations, saying he contributes more than me to the discussion. Actually, Eishi_ki started posting suspects after this post. Eishi's only claim before this post was that I am suspicious cause I spoke of 'we', the town. I think it's a really weak defense of Eishi and a weak case against me. More to my defense further down in the post. I do like that you also suspect the lurkers though. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
heist: One of the things I notice is that you didn't acknowledge my defence so far. You also didn't post a definite opinion in form of a vote or FoS. You gave general hints at the start. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
Superouman: The only thing you said which could haunt you as mafia later in the game is this:
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
The rest reflects a strong indecision. In one of his posts, he says he doesn't want to judge only based on assumptions. While such a Day1 attitude doesn't produce anything useful, he could just be making the mistakes of a noob townie. Cause of the neutrality of his posts I might vote for him in absence of another strong case. I believe Superouman to be scum or not confident enough. He just voted for sciberbia out of nowhere, whatever.
Unforgiven_ve
No cases, basically a resume of what has been posted so far. He might have felt the urge to post something positive cause he missed the timing when all the reccommendations were posted, or he might just try to blend in with the majority. There is a fairly strong case against him, although people have been accusing him fast. It might also just be a misunderstanding cause of the different languages, but we can't go for charity in this game, that's why I also suspect you of being scum.
Ange777: Permanent lurker. He promised he would contribute something soon. If it's not enough, I will vote for him first and unvote Eishi_Ki.
Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
The first to fall should be the lurkers. Killing me would also provide a nice bunch of information about peoples' motives for pushing against me, but naturally, I would like to avoid that.
...does seem highly suspicious. I haven't attempted to change your mind on your vote, so why the weak knees and change of heart to calling out a lurker? Was it everyone else basically telling you your argument was moot and that my responses were adequate? In either case, I had you fingered from the start and my suspicions were not waived despite moving onto other subjects. Here be mafia.
I'm also calling out Superouman, I have tried several times and attempted to encourage you to contribute more. Enough's enough though, I believe you are mafia and are using the newb excuse to sway opinion. I'm not buying it.
I'm not going to vote just yet, a response from Vivax will make my decision.
Be back this evening. I'll try and stay awake as long as I can for the vote (might be drunk, who knows, fire friday and all)
I guess one thing I'm quickly learning about this game is that you're not allowed to change your mind once you've stated your opinion on anything. Rather than appear wishy-washy, it's better to go full out aggressive on someone over the littlest details and stick to your guns even if you realize your argument doesn't make sense anymore.
For what it's worth, I've only changed my mind on someone once, and that is on Cattivik. Let me go over the accusations brought to me.
He hasn't even mentioned unforgiven before, but now he jumps on the bandwaggon, simply agreeing with everyone else who thought Unforgiven was suspicious. Suki, you said you'd be willing to expand your thoughts on Unforgiven. I'd appreciate it if you did.
Is agreeing with someone bandwagoning? I never mentioned Unforgiven before because I hadn't considered his posts before someone brought up some very good points on him.
His first three posts were general advice that was confusing at worst, contradictory at best. He states that you shouldn't use past games as a guide, yet he references two past games in the same post. He states that blue people shouldn't roleclaim, and yet they should roleclaim (as a last resort!). He states that mafia is more active during the last hours of the day, yet he slips in that he'll save his vote for the last hours as well, as if by stating it early he alleviates all suspicions on his actions later on. He's really against bandwagons, yet he asks for a town leader for people to follow.
I regret not posting my thoughts before, I was trying to avoid a huge wall of text but apparently it has come back to bite me. I felt that the points were already explored by s0lstice and Xatalos and didn't want to simply repeat their words.
I'm not sure what I would do in this situation in the future, where I feel I have a strong read against someone, so I want to put in a vote, yet I have nothing new to add to the topic. Say nothing, and not let your stance be known? Agree with another player and be accused of bandwagoning?
I don't feel I've been wishy-washy towards Miltonkram.
When I analyzed the possible outcomes of either player being town/scum:
So why is suki analyzing what a townie Miltonkram stands to gain from that vote? What's the point of that analysis?
Doesn't reputation mean a lot, especially for a townie? I was simply going through all the possibilities to be thorough, it seems strange to call me out simply because I was looking at all the possible outcomes of a lynch.
At this point I felt that Milton was suspicious and asked him to explain his actions, reserving a firm opinion for after he responded to me.
OK so before he said he was leaning toward Miltonkram being town. s0lstice stated he was suspicious of Miltonkram. Now suki piles on some suspicion, but is so damn wishy/washy about it. He describes Milton's response as "lackluster" and his actions as "interesting". Then he concludes by saying "I'm keeping my eye on you." All this seems scummy to me. He changes his mind about Milton, bandwaggoning with s0sltice, and is quite noncomittal about it.
I don't understand what's wrong with my choice of language here. Milton's response WAS lackluster. It was a simple 'hey, I'm sorry I didn't understand your point. I'll back off here.', and then he proceeds to ignore my question to him completely. Let me reiterate my negative points on him - he makes a big move then apologizes without so much of an explanation, he takes his time and then posts a safe list of obvious lynch candidates. Everyone seems to be willing to forgive him for his early actions, but his actions scream wishy-washy to me. In fact, at the end of this post I'll further back up my suspicions with his most recent posts.
This also seems like scummy analysis. He piles suspicion on Eishi_Ki, but then says he doesn't think eishi_ki is scum. Again, what is the point of posting this analysis? It seems to me like he's just trying to make it look like he's doing analysis, without actually accusing anybody.
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
Really bandwaggony here. Heist, eishi_ki, and golden had all already accused cattivik. Suki basically just repeats their reasons and adds cattivik to his 'scum list'.
I did not simply repeat the accusations. I was the first to point out and elaborate that his entire self defence relied on him being sure/not sure that sciberbia was town. I also pointed out his vote on Eishi wasn't even valid, he was completely twisting Eishi's words.
This was not bandwagoning in the least.
s0sltice addresses cattivik's accusers and defends cattivik against them. Now look how suki tries not to take a stance. He's "inclined to agree" with s0sltice. Whereas just a minute ago Cattivik was on his 'scum list', now he "supposes that both sides of the argument seem pretty petty".
s0lstice's statement about reading into the town motivation behind his posts makes sense. I was focusing on Cattivik's inconsistencies and quick, aggressive defense, and s0lstice was pointing out that it makes sense for a town to act this way. I'm 'inclined to agree' that you COULD see a town motivation behind Cattivik's actions, but I then proceed to ask s0lstice to clarify how he explains the point I had initially made against Cattivik, because you can also see a SCUM motivation as well.
That is, how strange it is that Cattivik is so confident in his read on sciberbia. I reiterate that it feels off to me.
I don't feel this is wishy-washy. Maybe I should have stated clearly in that post 'I am still suspicious of Cattivik' before I asked him to start commenting on other players, but I didn't feel that my intentions were unclear.
Let me state it really clearly here: I wanted to acknowledge to s0lstice that it was possible to read Cattivik as townie, but that didn't mean that he had to be townie. I never retracted my suspicions on Cattivik, and in fact asked him to start talking about other players, so that there would be more information about him other than a petty quarrel between one other player.
Not wishy washy. I just didn't feel it was necessary to make clear in every post that my opinion on Cattivik hadn't changed.
But he's "not so sure that you can say Cattivik's actions stricly read town". This is about as wishy/wasy as it gets. Scummy behavior.
I conceded that his staunch, energetic self defense could just as easily be a genuine townie reaction. That's not wishy-washy, that's simply acknowledging the other side's validity. My statement was made to point out that just because it could be a genuine townie reaction, doesn't mean it couldn't also be a genuine scum action.
The only way I could see this as wishy-washy is if you take the phrase literally. 'I'm not so sure' is not a statement of indecisiveness, it's a figure of speech used in every day conversation to politely point something out to someone.
In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia - he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything - he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance - he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik - he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos
1. I have taken a hard stance on unforgiven. I have also been clear about my suspicions regarding Miltonkram. 2. This is the same as point one, but let me reiterate. I've been suspicious of Milton from the start, and Unforgiven and Cattivik after my own analysis. And I have never thought Eishi was scum. 3. Please, explain again how I was wishy-washy. 4. I stated that your motives were clearer than Milton's, and I stated my opinion on Xatalos as an example for how Eishi_ki's point against Xatalos wasn't quite valid, thus backing up my claim that Eishi_ki hadn't contributed much to the thread at that time. Is this really 'befriending' or simply discussion? Does every statement of agreement or support carry with it the implicit motive to befriend someone?
Also, for both sciberbia and unforgiven who are singling out my comment that 'it may change later', I made it because I wanted to reserve my right to change my vote if the town wanted to lynch someone else. In hindsight, I realize that that's a given, and that it was an unnecessary or even stupid comment to make. I clarified in the post right below that I was sure my read on unforgiven was scum, and that I was reserving my right to change my vote. These words aren't as extreme as you make them out to be.
In summary, I have clearly addressed each and every point made against me by Unforgiven and sciberbia. I have shown that I have not swayed in my suspicions nor simply bandwagoned on any topic.
I admit that I have used the wrong vocabulary (such as 'I'm not so sure you can say that...' and 'I'm inclined to agree'), and that at times I did not spell out that I was suspicious of someone (relying on context to imply that I was still suspicious, as I had made no statement to the contrary). I'm still getting used to Mafia where using colloquial phrases can be analysed to death, so one has to be extremely clear about what they're saying. That said, I don't think that my intentions or actions have been wishy-washy at all.
ON MILTONKRAM BEING SUSPICIOUS
Take a look at Milton's most recent posts (After his apologies).
His opinion on Unforgiven is 'confused'. He lists all sorts of inconsistencies and says its easier to 'extrapolate some sort of scum logic' for unforgiven's call for town leadership.... And then doesn't commit to either calling him suspicious or not suspicious.
He states that Cattivik/Vivax is his 'top scum read as of this moment', then later on says:
'Alright Vivax, I'm still not a big fan of your play, but I'll give you some time off... I'm not completely satisfied with your defence, but tunneling you mercilessly doesn't help anyone either.'
and
'If you really are town, spend the time you would be using to defend yourself and post a decent case against a player or two.'
It really, really sounds to me like he's trying to ease off from his extreme stance against Cattivik.
Finally, he writes a large post directed towards superouman in which he points out superouman's contradictions, and states that he could be 'either lazy town or mafia'.
Up to this point, Miltonkram has made a strong attack on sciberbia, which he quietly retreated from. He has targeted superouman and ange777 for lurking (safe choices). He has called Cattavik out for being scum, followed by what may preparing to ease off of him ('If you are town...'). He has been wishy-washy regarding unforgiven.
Aside from this, Miltonkram has not even commented on anyone else in the game.
I don't see how you can look at my play and call it wishy-washy, but look at his play and not even criticise it a little.
@unforgiven_ve
suki: his first post is about the NL d1 theme, and asking Miltonkram about his fst vote. His 3rd post is some semi-analysis about the people the town is talking about and to close his post he throws a vote against me, before make it clear "it may change"...then a couple more post naming Cattivik, Superouman and me.
That's it...he nevers really pressure someone, playing it really safe, his filter is short, he's just taunting Cattivik in hopes of preparing a Day 2 candidate.
I'm 85% sure suki will flip mafia, he is playing a pretty standar mafia or a really bad (till now) blue. I will wait for his response.
I'm 85% sure that unforgiven hasn't even read my filter. The last 15% is that unforgiven is a REALLY BAD BLUE. I'm sorry, your only solid 'read' on me is to call me out on being wishy washy for stating the obvious (that I can change my vote if I want to), and then you add in a safety clause that I may be town?
I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it?
Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters).
@ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler +
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler +
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it.
My suspicions on Vivax/Cattivik are still there and I'm not ignoring them. However I understand how difficult it is to post scumreads when it feels like half the town is tunneling you. If he feels like he needs to constantly defend his posts, he can't actually contribute to the town. I'd like to see when or if he tries to "help" the town before I'm ready to lynch him, that way we can tie him down to any stances he committs himself to and look at those stances later in the game.
Also, how can you attack me for backing off of Vivax/Cattivik (which I have in terms of direct pressure, haven't in terms of suspicion) when you backed off of him at s0Lstice's behest? Trying to deflect pressure much (poorly I might add)?
As for my statements on Unforgiven, it really feels like his case has developed because of the language barrier. Why else would he post something like this? + Show Spoiler +
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Such an obvious contradiction in his post seems like there are nuances he's trying to convey, but has a difficult time putting to words. For clarity's sake I don't think Unforgiven's case is very good. I think it's poorly conceived and that scum have jumped on it to give it more steam than it should ever have had.
@ sciberbia I think you have a really good case against suki, but I need to reread it and go over the thread a few more times just to make sure it checks out. I think I have a case that may be even better though.
I would like to draw everyone's attention to our prime lurking player Ange777. Logic dictates that a lurking townie would at least try to contribute in some way. With that in mind let's take a look at his posts.
I can't think of any good reason for a no lynch. We might get scum today and without day 1 lynch the night 1 kill will be even more diffficult to analyse.
He takes a very safe stance here, one that steps on no ones toes. Mostly fluff. Since I took the same stance and it's his first post I'll take it easy on him. Second post:
I have been out all day and will only be back later. I'll catch up with the thread then!
He only posts this after there has been several mentions of his name. If he's been out all day, how come he's back in the thread just a few hours after people have been threatening him? And to post that? Third post:
Trying to catch up with the thread at 1:30 am is not that effective ....
Out of the three players that already got a vote Unforgiven seems the most scummy. As townie your vote is always your strongest weapon for the scumhunt. I don't say that you should random vote other players but once you have a good case it is always good to push and vote it. Until now your play seems very safe, a lot of fluffy posts.
But yes, I shouldn't be the one complaining when I am officially lurking. I even have to announce another day of lurking, but I promise some more (and BETTER!) action from me tomorrow before deadline!
He pops into the thread shortly to bandwagon a case and post some pretty fluffy advice. Next he promises action near the deadline. Let me explain why his promises of action are scummy. Town don't play the game to keep from dying, they play the game to try and kill mafia. Scum play the game to stay alive. This is the key to analysis of his play. His second post is only after people have drawn focus to him. His third is useless and with that tantalizing promise of action. His promise seems like it's there to stave off pressure so that we distract ourselves with other cases and he can continue lurking without committing any information to the game. He is trying to stave off pressure and keep himself out of people's sights, a sign that he is actively lurking.
I must also point out that superouman has drawn the most flak for his lurking style of play. If there are multiple lurkers, in this case Superouman and Ange777, a lurker lynch oftentimes benefits scum because they put their weight behind the lurker who is town. Knowing the pressure on superouman I'm inclined to lynch the other lurker because scum most likely have been trying to draw our attention to the wrong one. (I know I know. I pressured Superouman too.)
The final and most damning piece of evidence is this, while he's been making excuses for lurking in this thread he's been active and contributing in TL Mafia LV. Seriously, check out the posting history on his profile and take a look. This is another sign that he has been actively attempting to lurk this game. If you see any flaws in my argument please point them out, but I think it's pretty ironclad.
I just went through sciberbias, Eishi_Ki's and Miltonkrams' post.
I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
Right now there are a lot of votes for a lot of different people. The weirdest one coming from superouman, no explanation whatsoever.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Nobody is going to accuse you of bandwagoning if you are directly asked your opinion on someone. That said, what is your opinion on Unforgiven?
I think he made a couple of posts promoting a town leader (which imo is a bad idea), I see no lack of conversation, therefore, no need to 'get the ball rolling' as you put it. The ball is already in motion. He then went away for a while, came back and saw a lot of people becoming suspicious of him and he panicked, dropped the idea of town leader very quickly but continued to remind everyone not to judge on past games to which no one so far has mentioned or even brought up in conversation. Probable mafia.
And here we go for my REVENGE post (huehue)
After dropping the subject of Vivax because there wasn't a lot to talk about, I now feel I have more substantial points. First off
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this: On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you. If you admit you are scum now, you may choose the way you get lynched, Eishi_Ki, like being drowned in single malt whisky to have a last taste of your country. I'll keep the vote locked in.
Continues on the warpath with no sway in opinion whatsoever.
Next post, after my rebuttal, he continues to press the issue.
On June 01 2012 01:36 s0Lstice wrote: You decided to vote for him based on the fact that his schedule means he can't be around during lynch time, and him wondering if it's a good thing that he isn't around during that time.
You mean his joke?Yes, I didn't get the joke.
My main points (which I wonder you don't know, cause they were at the beginning of my argumentation against him) are that he just started posting after two accusations were out, with the claim of me talking of 'us' townies with the purpose of making myself sound as if I were one, while heist, a few posts above, does exactly the same thing I did.
So Eishi_Ki bandwagoned with a very weak claim, a very small post and no pressure to post in the future cause of his schedule.
Also, notice how once confronted with his weak claim he suddenly accuses three other people but not me anymore. He must have noticed that his claim is really weak and is now dodging the accusations. He also denied a statement concerning the weak claim instead asking what the accusation is. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298¤tpage=8#143
I think there is not enough information on unforgiven, except for a nonexistent post analysis. He gave general tips so far, then he agreed with statements from other players without questioning them and without posting something concrete.
I'll stick to my opinion regarding sciberbia and Eishi_Ki. In case I won't have a majority on Eishi_Ki, I'll try to help achieve the majority on the case i believe is most correct in order to get a Day 1 lynch 100%.
And up to this point I STILL don't know what I was accused of. I never asserted that I was accusing you, only that I was suspicious. What do you want, a full accusation after you post a couple of times? I felt the need to contribute, and I did. Yes my points were weak but I frankly don't know anything about D1 vs D2 lynch so I opted out of saying anything in that regard. Plus, it was a dead horse.
Finally, since that point, I have said nothing regarding Vivax to sway or dissuade him (sleeping and working). But from going from a vehement hyper aggressive vote for myself to this....
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Cattivik here, I just had my name changed <_< , hope noone gets confused.
Anyway, suki wanted some opinions on other players, so I'll put sciberbia and Eishi_Ki aside.
Alright, where should I start. Let's start with you, suki: You have 5 substantial posts so far, excluding those answering game related questions or correcting formal mistakes. Your first stance was expressed after Miltons' vote against sciberbia. You believe sciberbia to have posted in the towns' interest. So do I, that's why I defend him.And the argument of mafia not posting first in a newbie game doesn't seem wrong to me. You seem to support cases especially against unforgiven_ve, then Milton, then Eishi, then me. Frankly, I don't think you are mafia.
On to s0lstice: Very focused on unforgiven_ve, but also very eager to get opinions and wake up the lurkers. Rather than focusing on the exposed ones, he's getting the guys behind first, without doubt he's working pro-town and not afraid to defend people who he believes are townies, in this case me. The first post didn't look decise, but everything following convinced me of your town alignment.
Xatalos: First trying to get the lurkers, now he's pushing the case against unforgiven_ve along with s0lstice. Not seen too much of a hard stance except for the one on unforgiven yet. But I'm pretty sure you are townie aswell.
Miltonkram: He suspected sciberbia before understanding his point of view and apologized accordingly, suki found that apology a little suspicious, I don't. I think it's strange you have a scumread about me trying to buddy up with someone. I immediately dismissed the NL option in the s0lstice case.Doesn't exactly support his post. Still, I believe you are townie.
O.golden_ne: Not sure why he's pushing the case against me so hard, then suspects Xatalos for defending me. Then he defends Eishi_ki against my accusations, saying he contributes more than me to the discussion. Actually, Eishi_ki started posting suspects after this post. Eishi's only claim before this post was that I am suspicious cause I spoke of 'we', the town. I think it's a really weak defense of Eishi and a weak case against me. More to my defense further down in the post. I do like that you also suspect the lurkers though. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
heist: One of the things I notice is that you didn't acknowledge my defence so far. You also didn't post a definite opinion in form of a vote or FoS. You gave general hints at the start. I can't tell if you are mafia or town.
Superouman: The only thing you said which could haunt you as mafia later in the game is this:
On June 01 2012 00:45 heist wrote: Sciberbia is NOT a confirmed townie.
This, i don't understand why he could be a "confirmed" townie, even the most townie-looking person can be toying with us
The rest reflects a strong indecision. In one of his posts, he says he doesn't want to judge only based on assumptions. While such a Day1 attitude doesn't produce anything useful, he could just be making the mistakes of a noob townie. Cause of the neutrality of his posts I might vote for him in absence of another strong case. I believe Superouman to be scum or not confident enough. He just voted for sciberbia out of nowhere, whatever.
Unforgiven_ve
No cases, basically a resume of what has been posted so far. He might have felt the urge to post something positive cause he missed the timing when all the reccommendations were posted, or he might just try to blend in with the majority. There is a fairly strong case against him, although people have been accusing him fast. It might also just be a misunderstanding cause of the different languages, but we can't go for charity in this game, that's why I also suspect you of being scum.
Ange777: Permanent lurker. He promised he would contribute something soon. If it's not enough, I will vote for him first and unvote Eishi_Ki.
Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
The first to fall should be the lurkers. Killing me would also provide a nice bunch of information about peoples' motives for pushing against me, but naturally, I would like to avoid that.
...does seem highly suspicious. I haven't attempted to change your mind on your vote, so why the weak knees and change of heart to calling out a lurker? Was it everyone else basically telling you your argument was moot and that my responses were adequate? In either case, I had you fingered from the start and my suspicions were not waived despite moving onto other subjects. Here be mafia.
I'm also calling out Superouman, I have tried several times and attempted to encourage you to contribute more. Enough's enough though, I believe you are mafia and are using the newb excuse to sway opinion. I'm not buying it.
I'm not going to vote just yet, a response from Vivax will make my decision.
Be back this evening. I'll try and stay awake as long as I can for the vote (might be drunk, who knows, fire friday and all)
I'll stop giving accurate posts where i quote myself and others in chronological order, since some people don't seem to be able to read that information properly, else they wouldn't still be thinking I'm not town. So I'll keep the answers restricted to your post especially concerning the comments on the spoilers:
Spoiler1: See spoiler3
Spoiler2: That was an answer to your accusation that I want a D1L while supporting sciberbias' idea of a NL, which you felt was contradictory.
Spoiler3: What rebuttal of yours?post that too maybe. Anyway, the accusation is written in the spoiler: Jumping on the bandwagon with heist and Golden_ne with a really weak claim. The time schedule might be a reason for you to be less active, still it's something every good townie should be suspicious at first glance. Also, notice how you post -again- after the two of them posted already a claim against me. You seem to really like to show up together with them and ignoring other town matters to push the case against me.
Spoiler4: This spoiler really makes me wonder if you're actually reading the thread. You should really do that. I'll read that for you, my post in the spoiler was an answer to suki, who wanted me to put your case aside and hear opinions about other players. That's what I've done, scummy?Hell no, one of the few times I can actually push the scumhunt cause I don't have to defend myself from feeble accusations.
Anyway, even if my case on you might be wrong, it has pulled out so much information that you won't be able to not get pressured in case I die, along with some other folk. I'll conclude with my vote against the lurker:
Just really quick, I want to point out a reading error in your case sciberbia. + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote: But then he analyzes the possible outcomes of the vote from the perspective that Miltonkram is town. Notice that suki considers the scenario that I am mafia. At that point in the game, it looked pretty damn unlikely that me and Milton were both mafia. So why is suki analyzing what a townie Miltonkram stands to gain from that vote? What's the point of that analysis?
His possible lynch outcomes all assume that Milton is scum, not town. He is saying that, as scum, bussing you extremely early would give him big town credit if you were scum as well. He also would have deniability if you flipped town, because he did retract his vote after all. It is still a weird analysis, as scum don't bus eachother without a strong reason.
That out of the way, I agree that his first real meaty post wasn't all that meaty. All it needed to be was the final paragraph, where he comes to the decision that Milton is town. There is no reason to waste all that space entertaining the notion that Milton is scum if you are going to conclude he is town. What's more, the end conclusion has to match the dissertation. If you are going to give Milton a bunch of strikes for scummy behavior, it better be countered with more points that highlight his townieness if the end conclusion is that he is town. I didn't see this happening. This could be scummy play, or just bad analysis by a townie not sure how to contribute. Need to keep going to decide how to read this.
Concerning the second post. I noticed something:
On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote: --snipped First, the ability to change your vote kind of lessens the importance of Milton's extremely fast voting, and sort of discounts a lot of my initial suspicions of him
On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote: --snipped And yet he still sits on the fence about sciberbia, and 'everyone else'. Just like s0lstice, I find it suspicious that he's so aggressive without conviction.
He says his suspicions based on Milton's aggressiveness are reduced because he found out you can change your vote, but then maintains that Milton is being super aggressive, and it's making him suspicious. To me this look like circular logic, and it sticks out.
In his defense post, this immediately jumped out:
On June 01 2012 14:50 suki wrote: --snipped For what it's worth, I've only changed my mind on someone once, and that is on Cattivik. Let me go over the accusations brought to me.
On June 01 2012 14:50 suki wrote: --snipped Let me state it really clearly here: I wanted to acknowledge to s0lstice that it was possible to read Cattivik as townie, but that didn't mean that he had to be townie. I never retracted my suspicions on Cattivik, and in fact asked him to start talking about other players, so that there would be more information about him other than a petty quarrel between one other player.
This again is in the same post, and it seems contradictory. Changing his mind on cattavik presumably means that he stopped being so suspicious, yet later he says his suspicions have not changed. If you can see both town and scum motivation on a players actions, then you really have nothing, no case. A case begins when an action reads purely scum.
Regarding the accusation of piling on suspicion to players who are already under suspicion, I think you are assigning too much weight there. It's a small game, and if you feel suspicious of someone, chances are so does somebody else. Sometimes they are going to beat you to the punch in posting them as well. Suki touched on this I believe. Either you post, and catch flak for bandwagoning, or you stay silent, and catch flak for being silent. Bandwagoning is most useful to look at after someone gets lynched. You look at who pushed it, who were late comers to the case, and who was against it.
You also say that when he does speak about what's going on around him, it looks non-commital and political. Here I have to agree. This does look suspicious.
To sum up: I think there are enough points here that the case is worth pursuing. Suki, can you respond to the stuff I added to what sciberbia said?
Took me awhile to write that, but I want to talk more on Unforgiven at Xatalos' behest.
Also Milton...seriously? That huge case against a lurker? The problem with a lurker is obvious, they are lurking. Your 'most damning point' is a non-point. She (I think she is a she? sorry if I am wrong Ange) is playing two games. We even talked about it in the pre-game. She was subbed in to TL Mafia LV before this game started. Making enough time for one game is hard enough, let alone two.
This does not forgive her for lurking, she simply is choosing to favor the other game, and maybe will get lynched because of it. How you read this as purely scummy makes no sense to me.
I'd like everyone else to have a look at Milton's filter...he is climbing into scum territory on my list.
@ s0Lstice Do you disagree with the other points I made about timing? What about my analysis of the content of his/her posts? What about the fact that scum may have been trying to derail our lynch to the wrong lurker? Don't just point out one point in my case and claim that you've refuted the entire thing. My entire case does not hinge on him/her being busy with two games at once even though I still think Ange777 is deliberately lurking.
There is a difference between lurking because of time constraints and lurking with purpose. It's a difficult distinction to make but I think Ange is lurking with purpose.
On May 31 2012 07:38 s0Lstice wrote: Apropos to learning from last game, I can't help but feel that we should strongly consider lynching lurkers if any do appear. Of course it's a question of degrees...I just don't want to see another Mufaa/skware.
I think it would be healthy for you to live by your principles, s0lstice. Ange777's degree of lurking is quite massive.
Remember that the lynch system is Extended Majority, which means that its 7 votes to lynch! Submit your votes by the deadline which is in about 10.5 hours, or face toad's fury.
I never said I wouldn't vote to kill her off. In fact that's where I'm leaning now (lynching a lurker). At this point I don't love any of the cases we have developed. My post was directed at Milton in regards to the elaborate case he was making against a lurker.
In response to your specific points Milton, really the only thing of substance is the timing. A busy player who's name pops up is going to feel extra incentive to chime in. This is true if the player is either town or scum.
Any analysis of content is futile, as there is basically no content. She could easily be half-assing it by popping in to the thread, taking the current temperature, and accuse the most scummy person at the time. This could also be lurking scum. If she isn't actively pursuing her win condition, then she's either a useless townie, or is lurking scum and actually IS pursuing her win condition. Either way, the answer is to lynch. This is obvious, and it struck me as strange that you would write up a huge post about it.
I'm writing this on my phone, so the formatting isn't great, but there's not much time until deadline... So, here's a summary of my thoughts right now.
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered. If Superouman was a more experienced player, he would be pretty likely Mafia. However, since he's new and doesn't apparently know how to play the game properly, it's possible he's just a suboptimal townie playing against his win condition. I see no such plausible explanation for Ange777's play. He's had the time to post excuses about his lack of interest in Mafia hunting, but he hasn't STILL done anything for town's best interests. His play is most obviously anti-town at the moment, and he'll flip Mafia more likely than Unforgiven_ve or Superouman (although you two aren't cleared in my eyes either).
##Unvote ##Vote Ange777
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
May as well vote before I go to bed. Seems like a prudent idea to lynch a lurker D1, and I really don't want to see lurkers crawling around any longer than needs be. With that said, I'm going to vote for the more lurkey or the two lurkers.
He says his suspicions based on Milton's aggressiveness are reduced because he found out you can change your vote, but then maintains that Milton is being super aggressive, and it's making him suspicious. To me this look like circular logic, and it sticks out.
I think it's a matter of looking at my opinion of Milton in degrees, rather than a black and white suspicious/not suspicious point of view. While it's true that my suspicion of him was decreased because I found out you can change votes, but voting for someone still applies a lot of pressure and it shows you at least have some degree of certainty that they are worth the vote.
Voting for someone is still a big deal, regardless of the fact that you can change your vote later. I don't think what I said was circular logic at all.
On June 01 2012 14:50 suki wrote: --snipped For what it's worth, I've only changed my mind on someone once, and that is on Cattivik. Let me go over the accusations brought to me.
On June 01 2012 14:50 suki wrote: --snipped Let me state it really clearly here: I wanted to acknowledge to s0lstice that it was possible to read Cattivik as townie, but that didn't mean that he had to be townie. I never retracted my suspicions on Cattivik, and in fact asked him to start talking about other players, so that there would be more information about him other than a petty quarrel between one other player.
This again is in the same post, and it seems contradictory. Changing his mind on cattavik presumably means that he stopped being so suspicious, yet later he says his suspicions have not changed. If you can see both town and scum motivation on a players actions, then you really have nothing, no case. A case begins when an action reads purely scum.
I apologize for the contradiction in my post. Changing my mind on cattivik referred to changing from thinking he was clearly scum to entertaining the idea that his actions could show that he was town. Yes, he's still suspicious to me. The extreme certainty of sciberbia's role and his twisted accusation of Eishi_ki still read scummy to me... but I conceded that there was a possibility to read them as town as well. Like I said previously, I wanted to acknowledge that it was possible to read Cattivik as townie, as opposed to my previous stance where I was sure he was scum.
As you saw, Milton has already called me out on backing off of Cattivik, so I feel justified in putting in the clause that 'I've changed my mind only once'. If I had instead said 'I have never changed my mind', would I have not been criticised of backing off of Cattivik?
I've also accused Milton of backing off of Cattivik, but what sticks out to me is that he has not shown any commitment to a scum read on a player, whereas I have. If I'm suspicious for being non-commital and political, I don't see why Miltonkram isn't much higher on the suspicion list.
The lurker I've been monitoring all game is not Ange77, but Superouman. I gave him a chance to further clarify his vote and start contributing, but frankly, at this point with mounting pressure on Ange77, I think he is deliberating staying away.
On June 01 2012 05:38 Superouman wrote: Since it's getting late in europe and not much time remaining, i'll vote now
##Vote sciberbia
Is no one going to force Superouman to be liable for his really random, thoughtless vote on Sciberbia? He must be ecstatic to see almost the entire town become focused on the our other resident lurker. He has an early vote and I'm concerned that he's purposefully saying away precisely because everything is going his way.
On May 31 2012 23:29 Superouman wrote: For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect
My reasons exactly. Solstice you're right. Lurkers don't have content to analyze. There is no point in waxing on. I think Superouman is a better candidate than Ange77, who frankly has gotten a lot of votes in a short amount of time right at the deadline.
I just went through sciberbias, Eishi_Ki's and Miltonkrams' post.
I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
Right now there are a lot of votes for a lot of different people. The weirdest one coming from superouman, no explanation whatsoever.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Vivax, you still have my suspicions but I promised you the benefit of the doubt for a more promising candidate. Every thing you've said can also be said about Superouman. You even call out Superouman's weird vote. I ask you, why Ange77 over Superouman?
I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
@s0Lstice Making the distinction between a townie that lurks and a scum that lurks comes entirely down to motivation. It's a difficult distinction to make, which is why I made such a lengthy post on it.
The problem with a lurker is obvious, they are lurking.
No, the problem with a lurker is they might be scum trying to fly under the radar. The way to spot scummy lurker play is by examining when that player enters the thread and for what reasons. Analysis can be made of lurker play, you just have to know what to look for. I think I made a good case and I stand by it.
I just went through sciberbias, Eishi_Ki's and Miltonkrams' post.
I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
Right now there are a lot of votes for a lot of different people. The weirdest one coming from superouman, no explanation whatsoever.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Vivax, you still have my suspicions but I promised you the benefit of the doubt for a more promising candidate. Every thing you've said can also be said about Superouman. You even call out Superouman's weird vote. I ask you, why Ange77 over Superouman?
Superouman offered us reads with his strange behaviour. I really have no clue on that, but at least he posted some substantial things and voted, although with no apparent reason. And Ange777 promised something he didn't deliver. No reads, no votes, nothing. I've read his posts in other threads, and he seems to be more focused on those when he could have posted in this game at that time.
Since you are supposed to favor a day 1 lynch, i suggest you put your vote on Ange777 to achieve that required majority. We have 5 votes so far, 2 more to go. The day 1 lynch is almost there, and i'd prefer if noone disrupted it now.
Okay, finally home and what do I see? And bandwaggon on me :D
I agree that my lurking is awful town play and I should be far more active to prove my role as a helpful townie. Please excuse the excessive lurking as it was indeed an urgent rl matter which prevented me from posting and following the thread more closely.
I'll go through all the accusation posts by you first before trying to see if I can make a case on any player for scummy behaviour myself.
On June 01 2012 18:51 Miltonkram wrote: Second post:
I have been out all day and will only be back later. I'll catch up with the thread then!
He only posts this after there has been several mentions of his name. If he's been out all day, how come he's back in the thread just a few hours after people have been threatening him? And to post that?
I came back home, skimmed through the thread to see if anything important happend and decided that it should be best that you guys know that I am still alive and willing to play this game seriously as opposed to having to wonder why someone just doesn't post at all. If this way generates more suspicions that I might have to reconsider on honesty and politeness ....
Trying to catch up with the thread at 1:30 am is not that effective ....
Out of the three players that already got a vote Unforgiven seems the most scummy. As townie your vote is always your strongest weapon for the scumhunt. I don't say that you should random vote other players but once you have a good case it is always good to push and vote it. Until now your play seems very safe, a lot of fluffy posts.
But yes, I shouldn't be the one complaining when I am officially lurking. I even have to announce another day of lurking, but I promise some more (and BETTER!) action from me tomorrow before deadline!
He pops into the thread shortly to bandwagon a case and post some pretty fluffy advice. Next he promises action near the deadline. Let me explain why his promises of action are scummy. Town don't play the game to keep from dying, they play the game to try and kill mafia. Scum play the game to stay alive. This is the key to analysis of his play. His second post is only after people have drawn focus to him. His third is useless and with that tantalizing promise of action. His promise seems like it's there to stave off pressure so that we distract ourselves with other cases and he can continue lurking without committing any information to the game. He is trying to stave off pressure and keep himself out of people's sights, a sign that he is actively lurking.
As I mentioned it was 1:30 am for me, I was super tired but as I had promised to post I didn't want to ignore the thread at all. Trying to read through the posts was exhausting, I couldn't really analyze anything and therefore decided to focus on the poeple that already had a vote. Out of the three players with a vote at that time, I was the most suspicious of Unforgiven's play and so I said why. I can't actually comment on whether or not that was a bandwaggon as I can't recall at all if there were a lot of people voting for him or criticizing his play.
I would have to admit that of course I am trying to stave off pressure right now and I AM playing this game to keep myself from dying but not because I just want to stay alive but because I am town and I want to kill mafia.
The final and most damning piece of evidence is this, while he's been making excuses for lurking in this thread he's been active and contributing in TL Mafia LV. Seriously, check out the posting history on his profile and take a look. This is another sign that he has been actively attempting to lurk this game. If you see any flaws in my argument please point them out, but I think it's pretty ironclad.
I came back yesterday with two hours left until deadline in TL Mafia LV. Obviously I tried to catch up with that game as I considered it more important with the urgent deadline. I do admit that it might seem damning in your eyes but I only had these 2 hours and had like 20 pages to read in order to lynch the right one (and failed by killing off our vig ..... ). Afterwards my brain just shut down and as much as I had liked to, I just couldn't think straight anymore.
I am reading your accusations post by post, so it will take me a while to address all your questions and doubts.
Also, i have to correct my first sentence. There are no proper reads possible on superouman with that behavior (or at least i can't get any), but he posted things which allow him to get exposed while the game progresses.
It just concerned me that with ALL this talk about lurking almost no one even mentions Superouman. I definitely do favor a lynch. So if it comes down to it I will change my vote to enforce a lynch, but I'd like to give Ange77 some time to defend himself.
Quite frankly at this point, after reading your defense, it basically comes down to a question of deliberate lurking=mafia vs lack of time commitment. And that's just going to devolve into a pointless "I said, you said" game. We have many hours remaining. Give us your best analysis of the town so far. I want your reads. I want you to put yourself out there if you have to.
On June 01 2012 19:32 Vivax wrote: I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Okay, as I am now officially unlurking myself and your only reason to vote for me is because of lurking I would like to ask you to take back your vote.
Also, why is there no chance at all of hitting blue with me? I am NOT claiming blue right now ... I just don't know how you can ever be sure of that.
On June 01 2012 20:00 s0Lstice wrote: Also Milton...seriously? That huge case against a lurker? The problem with a lurker is obvious, they are lurking. Your 'most damning point' is a non-point. She (I think she is a she? sorry if I am wrong Ange) is playing two games. We even talked about it in the pre-game. She was subbed in to TL Mafia LV before this game started. Making enough time for one game is hard enough, let alone two.
This does not forgive her for lurking, she simply is choosing to favor the other game, and maybe will get lynched because of it. How you read this as purely scummy makes no sense to me.
I'd like everyone else to have a look at Milton's filter...he is climbing into scum territory on my list.
Yes, I lurked. Yes, I am a she. Yes, I subbed into the other game.
I actually didn't think that this game would start this fast after it felt like ages to get the player list full.
Yes, I might be lynched because of my choice. And YES, I will definitely think twice before playing two games again.
On June 01 2012 19:32 Vivax wrote: I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Okay, as I am now officially unlurking myself and your only reason to vote for me is because of lurking I would like to ask you to take back your vote.
Also, why is there no chance at all of hitting blue with me? I am NOT claiming blue right now ... I just don't know how you can ever be sure of that.
Lol what kind of argument is that: 'I might be blue'. Sounds exactly like the type of argument someone without arguments would use, you can apply it on anyone who didn't let any 100 % obvious scumreads slip while lurking all the time. You had the chance to set your priorities between this mafia game and the others. But until the last hours, there were no votes against you, so you didn't feel the need to be more active in this one.
Now that the guns are pointed at you, you come out swinging to defend yourself.
Quite frankly at this point, after reading your defense, it basically comes down to a question of deliberate lurking=mafia vs lack of time commitment. And that's just going to devolve into a pointless "I said, you said" game. We have many hours remaining. Give us your best analysis of the town so far. I want your reads. I want you to put yourself out there if you have to.
On June 2 2012 00:44 suki wrote: ---snip I've also accused Milton of backing off of Cattivik, but what sticks out to me is that he has not shown any commitment to a scum read on a player, whereas I have. If I'm suspicious for being non-commital and political, I don't see why Miltonkram isn't much higher on the suspicion list.
Really!? Have you been completely ignoring my last few posts? At this point I think you are deliberately misrepresenting me and it's really pissing me off. You're attempting to deflect pressure onto me. I've answered why I voted for sciberbia but you keep ignoring it. I just posted a case on why I think Ange777 is scum. While it is a case against a lurker I stand by it because I think it has merit.
Let me outline why your play sticks out me: - Your defense largely consists of deflecting pressure to other players. - You've bandwagoned as sciberbia has pointed out. It's not in and of itself a scumtell, but don't deny that you have. - You've committed yourself to what is, in my opinion, a bad case. (Unforgiven)
For the record, I will support a lynch of any of the four following players in order from most suspicious to least: Ange777, suki, Superouman, and Vivax.
I would also like to point out suspicious players that I have not yet had time to analyze: s0Lstice- He posted quite a few questions in his first few posts while not taking any hard stances. He's also spent a great deal of time defending other players while not committing himself to solid reads, a possible(?) attempt at buddying. His major saving grace is he started the pressure on Unforgiven.
Golden- Seems like he's just jumping on bandwagons. He did that in the last game and was green, but I can't afford not to be suspicious of his behavior based on meta.
Note: I just noticed Ange777's post, but I already had this typed up so might as well post it. I was just reading through his/her posts in TL Mafia LV and it really does look like Ange's crunched for time. Ange777, give me some solid reads and contribution and I'll consider removing my vote.
Remember that the lynch system is Extended Majority, which means that its 7 votes to lynch! Submit your votes by the deadline which is in about 4.5 hours, or face toad's fury.
On June 01 2012 19:32 Vivax wrote: I'll first tell you who I'm going to vote for now: Ange777. He hasn't been contributing anything whatsoever, and while I think that sciberbias posting on suki was quite good, so was his defense.
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
Okay, as I am now officially unlurking myself and your only reason to vote for me is because of lurking I would like to ask you to take back your vote.
Also, why is there no chance at all of hitting blue with me? I am NOT claiming blue right now ... I just don't know how you can ever be sure of that.
Lol what kind of argument is that: 'I might be blue'. Sounds exactly like the type of argument someone without arguments would use, you can apply it on anyone who didn't let any 100 % obvious scumreads slip while lurking all the time. You had the chance to set your priorities between this mafia game and the others. But until the last hours, there were no votes against you, so you didn't feel the need to be more active in this one.
Now that the guns are pointed at you, you come out swinging to defend yourself.
In my opinion one has no choice but to lynch you.
Did you not read what I posted? I said I am NOT claiming blue! I only think it's odd for you to be sure that there is no way I could flip blue. If I had wanted to claim blue I would have done it.
I do admit that the timing is unfortunate and may work against me. Can't really go back in time though ...
Xatalos asked me how I felt about Unforgiven in light of his defense.
I'm leaving my FoS where it is. When he finally had a little time to scum hunt, he pointed the finger at suki. It was a novel idea at the time, but to me it lacked effort. Look at sciberbia's post compared to his. Now, not all accusations have to have a big word count to be effective, but his effort just looks lazy. Does the reasoning he laid out really warrant a vote? Not to me.
He says Suki never pressured anyone, which is ironic because a big part of sciberbia's case is that he bandwagon pressured a lot of people. Whether he was first on the scene or not, he has pressured milton, unforgiven, vivix, and superouman. Saying he hasn't pressured anyone is just false.
His case is just 4 short points. The first I just discussed. Past that, his other points are a short filter, safe day 1 play, and some nonsense about taunting cattivik to butter him up for a day 2 vote. It's just not a lot to go on. Keep that in mind.
In his defense posts, he says we should discuss everything and nothing at the same time. Don't throw FoS around, or votes. Don't use meta arguments. What is his idea of hunting scum? Those two things are very important tools for applying pressure. He says we need structure, but never says what that is outside from some leader emerging to tell us what to do. His message remains totally unclear. Wait, be smart about scumhunting, and let people talk...but don't use half the tools in your arsenal to get them to talk.
He doesn't follow his own rules. He posts a 'meh' case on Suki and then votes right away. If he was following his own rules, I'd think he'd at least wait for a defense before throwing his vote around.
Bottom line is I like that he has started to make some effort to hunt scum, and I realize that he has had to spend a lot of time defending himself, but there are still so many inconsistencies in his play that my FoS stays put. I will keep watching.
On refresh I see there's a lot of other stuff going on right now so I'd better hurry up and post!
Like heist said, the only way I think you are going to save yourself is to do some actual, hardcore analysis on the game so far. You didn't give yourself a lot of time, so the odds are against you posting something that's going to be good enough.
Your accusations on me are accurate. I realized earlier that I have spent too much time considering other cases, and the players they involve. In my view, helping defend someone I think is town, and lending or subtracting weight to ongoing cases corresponding to my own reads is pro-town, but I need to hit the filters and work a lot harder on finding scum. I'll share my results as soon as I can.
on suki On first read, I liked his defense. I'm going to thoroughly read his filter in the near future and figure out where I stand on him. I think there is a more pressing issue right now, namely the 5 votes on Ange777.
on Ange777 I've looked through the 5 votes on her, and with the possible exception of miltonkram, a major reason for voting Ange was the simple fact that she was lurking. Well, Ange has officially stopped lurking, and has given every indication that she'll contribute in future days if she is not lynched today. So, I think you all need to ask yourself if you really believe she is mafia.
Personally, I don't see her play as either particularly scummy or particularly townie, so I'd consider lynching her no more than a coin flip. 3/12. This is not something I would throw my vote behind.
Who do we lynch? It's unfortunate, but I don't really agree with any of the popular lynch candidates right now. Since you all insist on a lynch, I'm going to go through the thread and make a post on who I think we as a group could agree on and be happy about lynching.
sciberbia, the issue that is causing Ange to lurk will still be there after today. She claims she will post more, but saying and doing are not the same.
It's Day1. With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! about 3.5 hours left to vote, voting is mandatory! People who haven't voted yet (3): s0Lstice, O.Golden_ne, Ange777
@s0lstice Maybe I misread, but I think there were 2 issues. One is Mafia LV and that will of course continue to be an issue. I think she also had some real-life busyness that I assume will not be as much of an issue in future.
A lot has been mentioned already, the unclear stances, the mud throwing at other players without much sound reasoning, etc. ...
This is all to excusable for a first time player. What is not excusable in my opinion is the following:
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Excluding the fact that he votes on me (I am NOT calling OMGUS just because of his vote), it is the lack of interest in pursuing his own case that makes me suspicious. A good case has to be argued for and you have to convince people to agree with your point of view. Instead you just take the easy way out to get a lurker kill, although you are absolutely sure that you can lynch scum with a vote on Unforgiven? How can a lurker kill be more important than a mafia kill? And we still have a few hours till the deadline so it's not like this is a last resort from your side to guarantee a day 1 lynch.
So let's have a look at this so called 100% scum Unforgiven and Suki's case:
On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote: Unforgiven seems to be the hot topic of the day, for his inconsistencies. I agree that he seems really suspicious. He also hasn't even accused anyone yet, much less contributed anything other than generalities and apologize for his english.
Really scummy. For the sake of brevity, I'll keep this short, but I'm willing to expand on my thoughts on Unforgiven if asked.
##Vote Unforgiven_ve
Yeah, was mentioned and criticized before. This looks like a classic bandwaggon. But Suki did explain his vote later on ...
On June 01 2012 14:50 suki wrote: My reasons for voting for Unforgiven: [spoiler] His first three posts were general advice that was confusing at worst, contradictory at best. He states that you shouldn't use past games as a guide, yet he references two past games in the same post. He states that blue people shouldn't roleclaim, and yet they should roleclaim (as a last resort!). He states that mafia is more active during the last hours of the day, yet he slips in that he'll save his vote for the last hours as well, as if by stating it early he alleviates all suspicions on his actions later on. He's really against bandwagons, yet he asks for a town leader for people to follow.
-snip-
I'm 85% sure that unforgiven hasn't even read my filter. The last 15% is that unforgiven is a REALLY BAD BLUE. I'm sorry, your only solid 'read' on me is to call me out on being wishy washy for stating the obvious (that I can change my vote if I want to), and then you add in a safety clause that I may be town?
Agreeable reasoning for an Unforgiven lynch so far. Seems very contradictory and as long as Unforgiven doesn't address the criticism these points are valid.
So here is Unforgiven's explanation:
On May 31 2012 23:17 Unforgiven_ve wrote: At day 1 (at least for me) we have to use timing and votting patterns to our gaing, when you just throw a bunch of FoS and Votes in every post you do you are actually helping the mafia, just making townies reasoning harder whit every post you do.
I agree we have to pressure people and make them talk, but we have to do this whitout being PARANOICS, again, this just helps mafia. Raise your case, make a couple post pointing out what you belive about someones filter, keep your FoS to yourself AT LEAST FOR THE BEGGINING OF THE DAY.
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: First of all, my "contradictions"...dont use PAST games as a guide is the first one i think. Im saying this, because i see (and saw in the past game) some people talking about "meta-game", for me, when i read NEWBIE Mafia and some players triying to do indepth analysis based on a few, sometimes even ONE random post is just hilarious, i understand we have to get the ball rolling but again, i say, we have to do this in a smart way, not just throwing gazillions of FoS and votes.
Now, at this stage of the game and seeing the post count we have something to work on, still very little, but at least is something.
About the "town leader", is something that manifest for itself, i never said lets vote or something.
Which actually makes sense.
Town really does not benefit from random votes or random FoS. People have to take your vote serious. If mafia believes that your vote will switch away from them in a few hours anyway, they won't feel the pressure to defend themselves. What town needs is convincing cases/votes with good reasoning in order to have a healthy town atmosphere.
At the start I thought Unforgiven's stance suspicious as well but the more I read I get a townvibe of him. I still believe it's better to pressure people early with a vote if you have enough suspicions/proof but I can understand why he thinks he should be more carefull with his vote. (If I remember correctly, in your last game there were tons of FoS in the early game and it confused a lot of players. And NO, this is not me meta gaming Unforgiven, but I am trying to see it from his side!)
Furthermore you don't want to rely on meta game for a newbie game. This kind of argumentation works better when you have played with someone for a lot of games and know his town or mafia playstyle. (And even than it is bound to fail you from time to time!)
I think it has been stated enough times that you should not roleclaim and why. But it is common sense that roleclaiming is your last and best shot if you are otherwise gonna be lynched. Sure, you will have to face WIFOM but if you this is your last resort, it is a strategy you should definitely pursue!
The town leader thing is somehow a flawed post from Unforgiven. But that alone does not suffice for a lynch on him.
Which brings me back to Suki's last post:
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
So somehow Suki managed to ignore Unforgiven's entire defense and still found a way to be absolutely sure of him being mafia, when in the post before there was still a 15% chance of him being a bad blue role.
And yet he gives up on lynching the sure mafia to jump on a bandwaggon forming on me ....
Ange777, your defense so far doesn't include anything of substance. You put us in a really hard spot by making us wait so long for answers (and we're still waiting for something else than simply excuses for your earlier apathy), so you need to do something decisive and clearly townie (nail a Mafia, bring your own point of view to today's events, etc). We can't let you get away from this spot without a good reason, since this is the only lynch effort with real momentum right now. If you manage to convince us, we'll have to decide on a new suspect in a very short amount of time, so time is running out for you. You should be as quick as possible.
sciberbia, it's good that Ange777 stopped lurking (at least for now), but it doesn't look good that it happened right after she came under heavy pressure. It could be a coincidence, but it just seems like too convenient to believe. If you have a better lynch candidate to offer, go ahead, but right now lynching Ange777 feels a lot better than a no-lynch. Although I don't like either how Superouman and Unforgiven_ve have just faded to (fake?) absence without contributing anything significant.
I'm fairly certain Mafia are hiding in this lurkish circle of three, but we have to ensure a lynch before the deadline (few hours left anymore!) and Ange777 seems like the only viable option at the moment. She needs 2 more votes, so get voting. Unless you advocate a no-lynch, or have a town read of Ange777 (pretty hard to believe), your best option is to vote for her at the moment.
Even if you only have a neutralish read of her, there's no quarantee we won't be having this same discussion again tomorrow if she continues lurking and undermining the discussion in the same way. In the worst case scenario of her being town, Mafia would still rather have a no-lynch than remove such a distraction from the Mafia hunt. So remain "AFK"/hesitant/vague about this if you're Mafia, but if you're town, you should see that a no-lynch would be much worse than lynching the sneaky lurker.
I understand that a Lynch is better than a No Lynch in our situation. Therefore I am not calling all players who voted for me scum although these many votes in such a short time stinks of a bandwaggon. No one can deny that this is suspicious.
Therefore please keep in mind: When I flip town - and I will flip town - there will not be any information to get from reviewing day 1 votes due to the way votes accumulated on me.
On June 02 2012 03:47 s0Lstice wrote: Ange seems capable of doing analysis, but there is no guarantee she will devote more time in the future. Could be busy townie or lurking scum.
I hereby proclaim that I will dedicate the weekend to playing Mafia!
Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
status: don't think we're lynching him today either
Ange this situation is really up in the air right now, because we only got any real information in the past couple hours. Several people voted for her just because she was lurking, and she is no longer lurking. She has pledged to contribute much more tomorrow. So, I'd like to know where everybody stands on her now. Xatalos and someone else (idr) argued that we have the most votes on her and should therefore lynch her to guarantee a lynch. This is a reasonable stance but I really don't think we should lynch her unless people actually think she is mafia. It's not like we get a whole lot of information from lynching Ange, compared to everyone else. Also, I think we have other candidates (see below).
status: Seems like a decent lynch candidate overall. Personally, I don't think he's mafia. I think a lot of you guys are just attacking him for bad townie play.
IMO, our best lynch candidates are: suki, ange, superouman If you have not yet given your opinion on these players, now is a good time to do so. Also, if your opinion has changed as a result of Ange's recent activity or suki's recent defense, please say so.
At the time when Suki made his switch was like 2-3 hours ago meaning he had at least 5-6 hours until deadline to convince people to switch to Unforgiven.
If I am absolutely convinced that someone is scum, of course I would push for a lynch on him. I agree that I might settle for a lynch before deadline but there is still quite a lot of time. Enough time for me to write a case on Suki so there should be more than enough time for Suki to write his case on Unforgiven.
I am by no means giving Unforgiven a complete townread. There are a few odd things but in my opinion nothing screaming scum like Suki.
I agree that Unforgiven's post later was far better but I picked these posts from Unforgiven because they were a direct answer to Suki's suspicion. And Suki, having posted after Unforgiven, should have had read this defense but chose to ignore it.
Danm...i thought this language thing would not be a problem, i see im mistaken...
I see my first post still is a problem for some players, i will try to summarize my response (for the last time) taking this post...
he states that you shouldn't use past games as a guide, yet he references two past games in the same post. He states that blue people shouldn't roleclaim, and yet they should roleclaim (as a last resort!). He states that mafia is more active during the last hours of the day, yet he slips in that he'll save his vote for the last hours as well, as if by stating it early he alleviates all suspicions on his actions later on. He's really against bandwagons, yet he asks for a town leader for people to follow.
when i say "dont use past game as a guide" i mean personally, dont look for the other games some especific player has played (¿sp?), they can change their way of playing very easily.
I just had played 1 game, blue roleclaiming at the end of the game is pretty obvious for me. I said i will save my vote for the last triying to show the town how is my style" of play, like i said, watching all the post, getting information, etc...but i see maybe i was wrong, one should adapt to the way the TOWN plays.
When i say town leader i ment someone who are good at making indepth anaysis and posts, who could get people thinking, who can sumarize 10 pages in one post... i think i did not made it very clear, but for a mafia this would be VERY hard to do, thats what i ment when i said "structure" just one or a couple of good players, not someone we will blindly follow...i forgot im in a newbie game ;D.
Now to all the new information... __________________________________________________________________________
This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else started.
On June 02 2012 02:37 s0Lstice wrote: Xatalos asked me how I felt about Unforgiven in light of his defense.
I'm leaving my FoS where it is. When he finally had a little time to scum hunt, he pointed the finger at suki. It was a novel idea at the time, but to me it lacked effort. Look at sciberbia's post compared to his. Now, not all accusations have to have a big word count to be effective, but his effort just looks lazy. Does the reasoning he laid out really warrant a vote? Not to me.
He says Suki never pressured anyone, which is ironic because a big part of sciberbia's case is that he bandwagon pressured a lot of people. Whether he was first on the scene or not, he has pressured milton, unforgiven, vivix, and superouman. Saying he hasn't pressured anyone is just false.
His case is just 4 short points. The first I just discussed. Past that, his other points are a short filter, safe day 1 play, and some nonsense about taunting cattivik to butter him up for a day 2 vote. It's just not a lot to go on. Keep that in mind.
In his defense posts, he says we should discuss everything and nothing at the same time. Don't throw FoS around, or votes. Don't use meta arguments. What is his idea of hunting scum? Those two things are very important tools for applying pressure. He says we need structure, but never says what that is outside from some leader emerging to tell us what to do. His message remains totally unclear. Wait, be smart about scumhunting, and let people talk...but don't use half the tools in your arsenal to get them to talk.
He doesn't follow his own rules. He posts a 'meh' case on Suki and then votes right away. If he was following his own rules, I'd think he'd at least wait for a defense before throwing his vote around.
Bottom line is I like that he has started to make some effort to hunt scum, and I realize that he has had to spend a lot of time defending himself, but there are still so many inconsistencies in his play that my FoS stays put. I will keep watching.
On refresh I see there's a lot of other stuff going on right now so I'd better hurry up and post!
ç
Some tother time would say you are not good at reading and throw a light insult ;D but at this point of the game i (think?) know is me not knowing how to make a proper post. Im not good at writing long posts thats why i try to resume and point to the precise stuff i find scummy.
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
I am unfortunately busy for the next hour and a half or so. I'll be back before the deadline for sure though.
My views: suki: pretty scummy early on. defense was good. Still, my top choice atm ange: I don't really have a read. I want to review her recent posts again. superouman: Not convinced he's mafia. Just seems like a very disagreeable townie.
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
lol @ anger. That just happened in your little head, my dear scum.
I forgot to put this in my last post, i also, dont like how Ange sided by me so strongly. That REALLY raised my eyebrown when i read it.
On June 02 2012 03:47 s0Lstice wrote: Ange seems capable of doing analysis, but there is no guarantee she will devote more time in the future. Could be busy townie or lurking scum.
I hereby proclaim that I will dedicate the weekend to playing Mafia!
Don't spend your whole weekend on the computer but yes, more is definitely needed.
The analysis on Suki was good. Especially good considering it was rushed. I spent time in his filter when sciberbia posted his case on him, and saw a fair amount of the same things he saw. I added a few more points to it, as I thought (and still do) that there is something there. The point you added is important. Saying you have a sure scum read and not fighting for it when there is ample time is really scummy. I'm not sure why I didn't lock on to this as well; perhaps because I was strongly considering lynching you at the same time he switched his vote to you.
To everyone else, consider now what Ange spending more time here would look like. I think in light of her posts we should strongly consider keeping her alive for the time being.
I want to instead suggest that we return to Suki. Sciberbia, myself, and now Ange have spent some time on the case against him, and I think it stands up pretty well.
I see now that sciberbia has posted about voting for Suki. My answer is yes, I will vote for him.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else stated
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
Okay ... seems like I have to step back from a Unforgiven defense ...
What are you implying here? That if I flipped red you would be even more convinced that Suki is scum? If you truly think both of us scum there would be no way Suki wants to vote for me. He could easily stick to his vote on you and claim that he is still 100% convinced of you being mafia. High chance for other people to vote for me anyway, so why would he have to vote for me, make himself suspicious of vote switching and bandwaggoning? Furthermore, losing a scum buddy on day 1 would be awful for him. He would indeed prefer a NL instead of my lynch and therefore NOT vote for me!
I hereby proclaim that I will dedicate the weekend to playing Mafia!
Don't spend your whole weekend on the computer but yes, more is definitely needed.
I already cancelled a girls night out this evening for you guys ♥ Or you could decide to step back from lynching me so that I could go out and stop being scared of having to face an unpleasant surprise when turning on the laptop!
Don't forget that we're still waiting for O.Golden_ne, who is probably lurking in the last hours before deadline to find a breach. Just sayin'...
Sciberbia, you summarized that I'm not sure about suki. I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I think we should keep pushing the case against Ange777, right now she's trying to undig cases on all possible people. I understand that there might be pressure cause of the limited time, but backing off from this target now puts the town at great danger of a No-Lynch.
And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already. Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start. It's a real bad time for controversy.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else stated
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
Okay ... seems like I have to step back from a Unforgiven defense ...
What are you implying here? That if I flipped red you would be even more convinced that Suki is scum? If you truly think both of us scum there would be no way Suki wants to vote for me. He could easily stick to his vote on you and claim that he is still 100% convinced of you being mafia. High chance for other people to vote for me anyway, so why would he have to vote for me, make himself suspicious of vote switching and bandwaggoning? Furthermore, losing a scum buddy on day 1 would be awful for him. He would indeed prefer a NL instead of my lynch and therefore NOT vote for me!
You just made yourself highly suspicious!
##FoS Unforgiven
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
No, i belive what you said, you were busy, i have no read on you, for me is a flipcoin. I convinced suki is mafia, given the commodity extended mayority gives to mafia i think they can have more room to play, seeing suki have changed his vote at once just reading one post, why not doing it again if necessary? If some other estates a case against some other player, he could say "yep this is pretty convincing too" for third time at last minute
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: Don't forget that we're still waiting for O.Golden_ne, who is probably lurking in the last hours before deadline to find a breach. Just sayin'...
Sciberbia, you summarized that I'm not sure about suki. I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I think we should keep pushing the case against Ange777, right now she's trying to undig cases on all possible people. I understand that there might be pressure cause of the limited time, but backing off from this target now puts the town at great danger of a No-Lynch.
And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already. Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start. It's a real bad time for controversy.
Vivax, are you seriously coming in and trying to defend Suki without any real effort? If you have problems with my case against him, please state them and tell me, why do you believe me to be mislead.
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
On June 02 2012 04:59 Unforgiven_ve wrote: No, i belive what you said, you were busy, i have no read on you, for me is a flipcoin.
On June 02 2012 05:03 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos: do you really think is not suspicious to come a few hours before deadline and make people belive you are that one analyst the town needs?
Unforgiven ... how about sticking to your stance? Either you don't have a read on me OR I am suspicious ...
50-50?? i dont really have a read on you because of your low activity, besides the couple post you made and the sudden activity i have no other read, thats the only thing i find suspicious. Having a FoS and a read are different things right?
and i meant he (suki) bandwagon'ed twice, me and you whitout stating any real reasons of his own
@ Ange777 Well shit, perhaps s0Lstice was right about you. Kind of frustrating that I made that huge case against you, but I have to admit when someone has actively contributed. If you are scum, you are now far less dangerous because you've committed strongly to your suspicions and made a case against a player. We can analyze the stances you've taken later on in the game.
As for Superouman, he's made some very strange statements. I can't help but think that if he were communicating in the scum QT, they would have advised him not to make some of the confusing statements that he has. Superouman is a pure policy lynch as far as I'm concerned. Policy lurker lynches are helpful, but we don't gain nearly as much information from them.
My new top lynch candidate is suki. He's seemed very suspicious of me, but he's ignored my rebuttals against him that I've posted. Why would he do that to, from what I can tell, one of his top 2 scumreads? I think he knows that his case against me is bad. Half of it is based on misrepresenting that I haven't responded to him or that I've taken a position that I haven't actually taken. You've earned this suki. If you flip red it's going to feel so good.
On June 02 2012 05:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 50-50?? i dont really have a read on you because of your low activity, besides the couple post you made and the sudden activity i have no other read, thats the only thing i find suspicious. Having a FoS and a read are different things right?
and i meant he (suki) bandwagon'ed twice, me and you whitout stating any real reasons of his own
FoS: Finger of Suspicion. Used to indicate that you find someone suspicious but are not going to vote them, for whatever reason (often because you are voting for someone even more suspicious).
I might have misunderstood your post. When I put the FoS on you, I think you are scummy but I still think Suki's more scummy and therefore vote him. Especially as he doesn't answer my accusations.
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
Where are o.Golden_ne, Superouman, Heist and Eishi_Ki for that matter? This huge amount of lurking is making the game so much harder.
On June 02 2012 05:03 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos: do you really think is not suspicious to come a few hours before deadline and make people belive you are that one analyst the town needs?
Unforgiven ... how about sticking to your stance? Either you don't have a read on me OR I am suspicious ...
I fully agree and wonder why people aren't voting for him already. He's just throwing non-committing blame around and never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny. If you want to have a textbook Mafia style to analyze, you have one right here... Compare Unforgiven_ve and Suki with each other and tell me Suki is the Mafia of these two. It's probably not both, since they have been antagonizing each other for the whole game.
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
You are right, I've mistaken miltons' post for sukis. Still doesn't change my opinion after reading his filter. Going for the lynch as opposed to a NL will always look like a bandwagon. In fact, when there aren't any decisive reads, there has to be a bandwagon. But better that than more confusion. I've also said heist shouldn't try to disrupt the voting process against you, should it be one vote away from a majority, cause then we will end up without information. That doesn't mean I will accuse him for bandwagoning just cause he's the last to vote.
There are no proper scumreads in his posts, one of the most early scumreads is inactivity, by which you shined. I've already compared the times of your posts in the other games with those in this one, and you didn't feel pressured to post in this one when you did in the other. You've either set your priorities in a way that it will make you look suspicious, or you are scum.
Then this case on suki, it's just perfect for you, the contribution you are giving us concerns mostly him, and you also vote for him. Since there is already a fair amount of people suspecting him, it's just natural you're gonna try to spin momentum away from your towards his case. Also, you post a lot of small posts effectively diluting the thread.
Look, I'm suspicious to a bunch of people already, I am pushing the accusation against you. Then why do you just pick sukis' case cause it's the case where you could obtain a majority and not get lynched? Cause it's gonna be too hard for you to push a case on me, heist and Golden tried, now they're silent when it won't work. Who defended you?Heist. Guess what, his first line regarding you was: 'Let us hear something from you. No pressure.' He's going pretty soft on you despite being a lurker.
Alright guys, I'll be away for just a bit, but I'll hopefully get back before the deadline. With s0Lstice's promised vote on suki, that brings the total on him up to five. Ange's play has lessened my suspicion of her for the time being, I would suggest anyone with their vote still on her to switch to the best candidate. I think that candidate is suki, but if you disagree, please state your reasons why.
QUOTE]On June 02 2012 05:25 Xatalos wrote: Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
Where are o.Golden_ne, Superouman, Heist and Eishi_Ki for that matter? This huge amount of lurking is making the game so much harder.
On June 02 2012 05:03 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos: do you really think is not suspicious to come a few hours before deadline and make people belive you are that one analyst the town needs?
Unforgiven ... how about sticking to your stance? Either you don't have a read on me OR I am suspicious ...
I fully agree and wonder why people aren't voting for him already. He's just throwing non-committing blame around and never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny. If you want to have a textbook Mafia style to analyze, you have one right here... Compare Unforgiven_ve and Suki with each other and tell me Suki is the Mafia of these two. It's probably not both, since they have been antagonizing each other for the whole game.
[/QUOTE]
never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny?? Really? in every post i say if you have questions just ask! Maybe i didnt made myself clear at beggining, i see now one should adapt to how the town plays. Unlike you i dont throw random FoS and votes "just to get the ball rolling", you can do some analysis checking the time and the way people post (i think i have said the same thing like 4 times now?)
he states that you shouldn't use past games as a guide, yet he references two past games in the same post. He states that blue people shouldn't roleclaim, and yet they should roleclaim (as a last resort!). He states that mafia is more active during the last hours of the day, yet he slips in that he'll save his vote for the last hours as well, as if by stating it early he alleviates all suspicions on his actions later on. He's really against bandwagons, yet he asks for a town leader for people to follow.
when i say "dont use past game as a guide" i mean personally, dont look for the other games some especific player has played (¿sp?), they can change their way of playing very easily.
I just had played 1 game, blue roleclaiming at the end of the game is pretty obvious for me. I said i will save my vote for the last triying to show the town how is my style" of play, like i said, watching all the post, getting information, etc...but i see maybe i was wrong, one should adapt to the way the TOWN plays.
When i say town leader i ment someone who are good at making indepth anaysis and posts, who could get people thinking, who can sumarize 10 pages in one post... i think i did not made it very clear, but for a mafia this would be VERY hard to do, thats what i ment when i said "structure" just one or a couple of good players, not someone we will blindly follow...i forgot im in a newbie game ;D.
Now to all the new information... __________________________________________________________________________
This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else started.
On June 02 2012 02:37 s0Lstice wrote: Xatalos asked me how I felt about Unforgiven in light of his defense.
I'm leaving my FoS where it is. When he finally had a little time to scum hunt, he pointed the finger at suki. It was a novel idea at the time, but to me it lacked effort. Look at sciberbia's post compared to his. Now, not all accusations have to have a big word count to be effective, but his effort just looks lazy. Does the reasoning he laid out really warrant a vote? Not to me.
He says Suki never pressured anyone, which is ironic because a big part of sciberbia's case is that he bandwagon pressured a lot of people. Whether he was first on the scene or not, he has pressured milton, unforgiven, vivix, and superouman. Saying he hasn't pressured anyone is just false.
His case is just 4 short points. The first I just discussed. Past that, his other points are a short filter, safe day 1 play, and some nonsense about taunting cattivik to butter him up for a day 2 vote. It's just not a lot to go on. Keep that in mind.
In his defense posts, he says we should discuss everything and nothing at the same time. Don't throw FoS around, or votes. Don't use meta arguments. What is his idea of hunting scum? Those two things are very important tools for applying pressure. He says we need structure, but never says what that is outside from some leader emerging to tell us what to do. His message remains totally unclear. Wait, be smart about scumhunting, and let people talk...but don't use half the tools in your arsenal to get them to talk.
He doesn't follow his own rules. He posts a 'meh' case on Suki and then votes right away. If he was following his own rules, I'd think he'd at least wait for a defense before throwing his vote around.
Bottom line is I like that he has started to make some effort to hunt scum, and I realize that he has had to spend a lot of time defending himself, but there are still so many inconsistencies in his play that my FoS stays put. I will keep watching.
On refresh I see there's a lot of other stuff going on right now so I'd better hurry up and post!
ç
Some tother time would say you are not good at reading and throw a light insult ;D but at this point of the game i (think?) know is me not knowing how to make a proper post. Im not good at writing long posts thats why i try to resume and point to the precise stuff i find scummy. Suki voted for Ange77 to enforce a day 1 lynch especially since YOU had only a single vote.
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.
My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
My exacts words were "I forgot to put this in my last post, i also, dont like how Ange sided by me so strongly. That REALLY raised my eyebrown when i read it."
My one and onyl target has been suki, saying that thing about IF Ange777 turns red was just a random thought, a possibility we cannot discard, dont you think?
And i dont understand what are you saying here, please post what i said or ask me/show me if i wrote something weird to your eyes
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
You are right, I've mistaken miltons' post for sukis. Still doesn't change my opinion after reading his filter. Going for the lynch as opposed to a NL will always look like a bandwagon. In fact, when there aren't any decisive reads, there has to be a bandwagon. But better that than more confusion. I've also said heist shouldn't try to disrupt the voting process against you, should it be one vote away from a majority, cause then we will end up without information. That doesn't mean I will accuse him for bandwagoning just cause he's the last to vote.
There are no proper scumreads in his posts, one of the most early scumreads is inactivity, by which you shined. I've already compared the times of your posts in the other games with those in this one, and you didn't feel pressured to post in this one when you did in the other. You've either set your priorities in a way that it will make you look suspicious, or you are scum.
Then this case on suki, it's just perfect for you, the contribution you are giving us concerns mostly him, and you also vote for him. Since there is already a fair amount of people suspecting him, it's just natural you're gonna try to spin momentum away from your towards his case. Also, you post a lot of small posts effectively diluting the thread.
Look, I'm suspicious to a bunch of people already, I am pushing the accusation against you. Then why do you just pick sukis' case cause it's the case where you could obtain a majority and not get lynched? Cause it's gonna be too hard for you to push a case on me, heist and Golden tried, now they're silent when it won't work. Who defended you?Heist. Guess what, his first line regarding you was: 'Let us hear something from you. No pressure.' He's going pretty soft on you despite being a lurker.
As I have stated several times, I understand the need to lynch. Better lynch a lurker than a NL. Everyone agrees.
I tried to explain why I posted in the other game instead of this one. Yesterday was the voting deadline for TL Mafia LV. I felt it was more important to catch up with that thread and vote there because I would have time today to contribute in our game.
While I believe that inactivity is indeed an early scumread, lurking that excessivly as I have done is just far too noticeable that I don't believe scum would actually try to follow this strategy.
The case against Suki is not based on previous suspicions from other players but on my own reasoning. There have been points that I made in my case which where not mentioned yet in the thread. If I had known that picking someone who I believe is actually scummy makes me scum ... guess I should have "picked" you as you proposed ... Why do you want me to build a case against you? I haven't yet commented on your play. Is there anything scummy I skipped that would have made a case against you better than a case against Suki?
And yes, Heist is "going soft" on me .... BECAUSE I was "only" lurking. And besides lurking there was nothing else that made me scummy.
I don't like your defense of Suki at all. Basically you try two things:
1) You try to discredit me by saying that I chose an easy case. I can only say, I am pretty convinced by my case of Suki and would have posted a similar case on anybody whom I believed to be scummy.
2) You try to say I am scummy because I lurked. Now that I unlurk don't you think that should somehow revert your judgement? Or are you saying that I am now scummy BECAUSE I unlurked?
This is not a defense at all. You only discredit ME, but you don't explain Suki's behaviour. I have stated that he had more than enough time to start a good case on Unforgiven (which I would have seconded having seen Unforgiven's latest posts) and you only repeat that you think his filter is good?
Oh yes ... and finally the biggest loop in your logic. I don't need a majority for Suki if the only thing I was concerned about was staying alive. Getting a NL would suffice if I was mafia.
Please come up with a better defense ... otherwise I will be presenting you with a FoS as well.
On June 02 2012 05:27 Unforgiven_ve wrote: im not a fan of this, but im gonna do it...
TOWN please, VOTE FOR SUKI, im pretty sure he is mafia!! I bet he is confortably sitting waiting for Ange777 to get lynched or a No Lynch at best.
Xatalos, if you arent mafia, please do this, a vigi can check me at night (if mafia dont kill me before)
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
My exacts words were "I forgot to put this in my last post, i also, dont like how Ange sided by me so strongly. That REALLY raised my eyebrown when i read it."
My one and onyl target has been suki, saying that thing about IF Ange777 turns red was just a random thought, a possibility we cannot discard, dont you think?
And i dont understand what are you saying here, please post what i said or ask me/show me if i wrote something weird to your eyes
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
You are implying that red Ange77 or a red Suki implies a connection. What connection? That if one is red, it's likely the other is as well? I don't understand what you are saying.
About Solstice, this is your exact quote
Some tother time would say you are not good at reading and throw a light insult ;D but at this point of the game i (think?) know is me not knowing how to make a proper post. Im not good at writing long posts thats why i try to resume and point to the precise stuff i find scummy. Suki voted for Ange77 to enforce a day 1 lynch especially since YOU had only a single vote.
I'll try to paraphrase your words: "I don't have time to insult you right now but if I did, I would say you aren't good at reading (an insult in itself). I'm not very good at writing so I try to keep it short and simple." You don't address him at all. Just make excuses.
It's Day1. With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch! about 1 hour and 5 minutes left to vote, voting is mandatory! People who haven't voted yet (3): O.Golden_ne,
Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. No matter what my opinion on the suspect is, the alignment flipping will unveil a crapload of information.
That said, if suki is gonna flip town, I really hope you will be able to recognize Ange777's motives behind her intention to push a case on him.
If suki flips mafia, then I was clearly wrong and might end up in trouble for defending him. That would also prove Ange777 innocent and everyone supporting the vote first (not the ones joining in when it was obvious).
However, do you notice how there's actually noone defending suki as of now except me?While there are a bunch of persons trying to deflect the attention from Ange777.
Really, it's disgusting to see how people turn from the lurker to the poster in the arc of three hours, whereas the poster has been active all the time. And all of that happening in the last hours, making the outcome more uncertain, the mafia stronger.
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
You are right, I've mistaken miltons' post for sukis. Still doesn't change my opinion after reading his filter. Going for the lynch as opposed to a NL will always look like a bandwagon. In fact, when there aren't any decisive reads, there has to be a bandwagon. But better that than more confusion. I've also said heist shouldn't try to disrupt the voting process against you, should it be one vote away from a majority, cause then we will end up without information. That doesn't mean I will accuse him for bandwagoning just cause he's the last to vote.
There are no proper scumreads in his posts, one of the most early scumreads is inactivity, by which you shined. I've already compared the times of your posts in the other games with those in this one, and you didn't feel pressured to post in this one when you did in the other. You've either set your priorities in a way that it will make you look suspicious, or you are scum.
Then this case on suki, it's just perfect for you, the contribution you are giving us concerns mostly him, and you also vote for him. Since there is already a fair amount of people suspecting him, it's just natural you're gonna try to spin momentum away from your towards his case. Also, you post a lot of small posts effectively diluting the thread.
Look, I'm suspicious to a bunch of people already, I am pushing the accusation against you. Then why do you just pick sukis' case cause it's the case where you could obtain a majority and not get lynched? Cause it's gonna be too hard for you to push a case on me, heist and Golden tried, now they're silent when it won't work. Who defended you?Heist. Guess what, his first line regarding you was: 'Let us hear something from you. No pressure.' He's going pretty soft on you despite being a lurker.
You are really going all out in an attempt to distort me. My only real contact with Ange77 is telling her to stop lurking and asking her to start contributing. How could I possibly go hard on her if she's only been lurking. There's nothing to analyze. My first line, if you remember, was only halfway through day 1 and there's no real need to be screaming at people to be active.
I'm not very good at writing so I try to keep it short and simple.
pretty much you said it. Thats my response, my accusation to suki was 4 points long and i tried to make it clear, if thats not enough for him, then what more can i say?
-------------------------------- change of plans, i have to go, i will say it again. VOTE FOR SUKI PLEASE!
Vivax (Cattivik), you're clearly online but your vote is useless right now. I ask you to reconsider Ange777 as your Mafia pick and look more carefully at Unforgiven_ve.
Ange777, I also ask you to look at Unforgiven_ve's filter again. I'm still leaning town on Suki and would hate to lynch a townie just to gain some information.
I'm not very good at writing so I try to keep it short and simple.
pretty much you said it. Thats my response, my accusation to suki was 4 points long and i tried to make it clear, if thats not enough for him, then what more can i say?
-------------------------------- change of plans, i have to go, i will say it again. VOTE FOR SUKI PLEASE!
He's challenging your 4 points. But your response to the criticism is oh well... best i can do. If that's not a weak stance, I don't know what is.
This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. No matter what my opinion on the suspect is, the alignment flipping will unveil a crapload of information.
That said, if suki is gonna flip town, I really hope you will be able to recognize Ange777's motives behind her intention to push a case on him.
My intention? Lynch scummy players.
If suki flips mafia, then I was clearly wrong and might end up in trouble for defending him. That would also prove Ange777 innocent and everyone supporting the vote first (not the ones joining in when it was obvious).
I thought you are pretty sure of him being town ...
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town.
However, do you notice how there's actually noone defending suki as of now except me?While there are a bunch of persons trying to deflect the attention from Ange777. Really, it's disgusting to see how people turn from the lurker to the poster in the arc of three hours, whereas the poster has been active all the time. And all of that happening in the last hours, making the outcome more uncertain, the mafia stronger.
Would you mind explaining who is deflecting attention away from me? I think I made a pretty good case and took a clear stance in my gameplay, that is why people are switching their votes off of me and start voting Suki or Unforgiven. Yes, Suki was active for a far longer way than me but activity alone should not be a reason to not suspect someone or not lynch someone.
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
I apologize for my absence. I am really sorry and I know that this impacts the game poorly and hurts the fun of playing Mafia. But this is no reason to lynch me. I am here and posting right now. Are you saying you would rather lynch me even if I am town than keep me alive?
All in all I feel you don't care to comment on my posts at all. You again only try to discredit me and blame my lack of posting. It does get old after a while .... are you running out of reasons to defend Suki, your scum buddy?
##FoS Vivax
And no, I don't give random FoS onto players who accuse me. I try to calmly explain my reasoning and talk to Vivax, but somehow he always dodges my concerns and has never given any defense for Suki's play.
One little thing to add: Without me spamming the thread in the last few hours, even if you guys lynched me you would not have gained any information at all. Vivax, you should be happy that I started this discussion - as long as we do manage to lynch someone today of course.
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
On June 02 2012 06:09 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, I also ask you to look at Unforgiven_ve's filter again. I'm still leaning town on Suki and would hate to lynch a townie just to gain some information.
I would consolidate on a Unforgiven lynch as I have posted my concerns about his recent play. Still I believe Suki to be more scummy.
Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
Are you following what's been happening and the rapid bandwagon on Suki? Sticking your neck out by siding with the majority? I'm gonna call you out. And I hope you keep talking. It's just making me more convinced.
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
What exactly is your so-called scumtell? That I side with Unforgiven on the case against Suki? If you read correctly, I changed my opinion on Unforgiven after his recent posts and only after my case on Suki.
Just a mention: No need to make it "##FoS" all the time, just use FoS. I'm searching for "##" when doing the votecounts and I always see those foses that way lol
Just because two people push scum cases against each other does not mean that they can't both be scum distancing themselves from each other. Although I highly doubt that both Suki and Unforgiven are scum.
On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
You just said you'd be offline until the deadline? Why are you still here then? Faking AFK and then slipping by commenting anyway? I also looked through your filter and saw more empty promises. For example, earlier you promised to post a case on a second suspect today, yet you haven't done so. Frankly I don't see why Suki is being voted over Unforgiven_ve. I agree that Suki's flip would reveal information, but I hate lynching mainly for information. Looks like I might have to do it soon though. But if it comes to that, you're next on the list. Or if he actually flips Mafia, I'll have to reconsider you. I find it hard to believe you would bus your teammate so brazenly.
This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
I'm back. The thread has gotten really hectic. It seems we are between suki and unforgiven? Or is Ange still in the running? I'm going to reread suki's filter now. I want to hear as many opinions on the lynch candidates as possible.
Lol ange, now you understand when I said if you flip maafia blah blah???
Heist, you not helping your cause, you did not showed me my MANY ATTACKS against the people You said were attacking me...and if you really read the thread, you can see I was the FIRST one voting for suki, 24 hours Ago, so, explain to me please, siding whit who?
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
On June 02 2012 06:37 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol ange, now you understand when I said if you flip maafia blah blah???
Heist, you not helping your cause, you did not showed me my MANY ATTACKS against the people You said were attacking me...and if you really read the thread, you can see I was the FIRST one voting for suki, 24 hours Ago, so, explain to me please, siding whit who?
You purposefully call yourself so brave because you are sticking with Suki. Attention, he has the majority. You are sticking with the majority. Don't attempt buoy yourself up because you were the "first".
BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent.
My scum reads right now are Suki, Unforgiven and Vivax. I would vote for any of these three players to ensure a lynch.
@s0Lstice: I can understand that you feel like I just attack all the players that question me but I tried to answer calmly. I know I am innocent and therefore feel the need to explain myself. I know that you would have liked another read on scum players but through the discussion about my situation I feel that there was a lot more to analyse then before, especially Vivax' weird defense of Suki is far more than just odd.
On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
I've reread suki's filter and I still think he has a good chance to be mafia. Out of everyone here, who thinks suki is a bad lynch? - Xatalos is leaning slightly town on him - Cattivik is "confident" that suki is town - Heist is "not completely convinced"
Other people who haven't voted on suki - Eishi_KI was I think suspicious of suki, but is not currently in the thread - superouman probably has no helpful opinion - I don't think golden has commented on him
Everyone else seems on board with a suki lynch. I think that, on the whole, suki is a fine lynch choice.
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
That's cool, because I don't like how you don't like it. What fantasy world are you living in where an Unforgiven lynch is possible right now? If I vote with my stronger read, there is a serious threat of a no-lynch. I choose Suki over this alternative.
I made my vote change close to an hour ago. I was hoping more people would be active. Ange77 had misgivings about Unforgiven, we still had no vote from golden.ne, and Vivax was almost completely convinced Suki was innocent. You admit that between a close vote between Suki and Unforgiven, you very well might have voted for Unforgiven. So not completely fantasy. I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now.
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
What exactly is your so-called scumtell? That I side with Unforgiven on the case against Suki? If you read correctly, I changed my opinion on Unforgiven after his recent posts and only after my case on Suki.
I don't understand the problem.
THIS IS A LIE, you still have a FoS on him in the last substantial post. Check the filter guys! And this last post about unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 06:09 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, I also ask you to look at Unforgiven_ve's filter again. I'm still leaning town on Suki and would hate to lynch a townie just to gain some information.
I would consolidate on a Unforgiven lynch as I have posted my concerns about his recent play. Still I believe Suki to be more scummy.
Sorry I was out guys, I know how crucial this time is. It looks like suki is going to be the consensus lynch. Sorry if you're town suki, but you really should have tried to defend yourself in however long it's been since you last posted.
It really sucks to see how many people weren't around before the deadline. How long has it been since Eishi_Ki, Golden and suki have been active? Really lame guys.
You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own.
On June 02 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own.
In the beginning I just thought Unforgiven's play to be awful (no offense!). Therefore I tried to show that Suki's case was bad as he 1) switched his vote from a in his mind 100% scum to a lurker and 2) had no reason to suspect Unforgiven based on the posts he had made until then.
Only later Unforgiven made me highly suspicious and therefore received my FoS. Unforgiven might have started a case but this Suki case is my case. I put a lot of effort into it to explain why he is scummy and pointed out new concerns in his play.
Why can't I be suspicious of both? Why is that mafia play? As both did not receive enough support in their cases we can also assume that they were trying to distance themselves from each other. If you had read my posts closely, you would have seen that I tried to explain this earlier already.
Vivax, Ange777's case has not been the way you are attempting to paint it. It's ok for one player to suspect multiple people.
On June 2 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own.
Bullshit. Yes you can. Unforgiven may have posted his suspicion of suki first, but sciberbia has been the main force behind it. A mafia pushing a case against a mafia is called "bussing" and it happens all the freaking time. You are posting misleading information and needlessly tunneling Ange777 even while she is trying to post cases beneficial to the town. Please stop.
It was still a nice sunny day in Liquidia, yet something was different. The streets were almost empty, windows closed and those people who dared walking in the open usually went around in large groups, trying not move around on their own except for a handful of Liquidia who wanted to find the intruders themselves.
Citizien: "Sheriff Qatol! We found those 2 creeping around behind the stores. Like they was looking for something, or trying to set-up another mass-assassination" Sherrif Qatol: "Are you sure about those two?" Citizien: "Yes Sheriff, there's no way this guy had something good in mind. You should have seen him, running nervously around, always trying to check if people are following him!" Sherrif Qatol: "Ok, let's show those people that we're fighting back. This will be a nice message for them!"
Suki the Mafia Roleblocker was executed by Sheriff Qatol
O.Golden_ne got hit on the butt and will be replaced.
It is now Night. You have about 24 hours time to get your nightactions in! Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) as always
Sorry for the long wait... couldn't find a nice picture and this one isn't exactly what I was looking for either lol Now you know the secrets why those day and nightposts take so long
Wow, that's incredible. It was Suki of those two after all... This makes Ange777 and even Unforgiven_ve look pretty townie. Only Superouman is left of my earlier suspects, but even he doesn't look that suspicious. I'll have to reread the discussion before the deadline.
I doubt I can change things now that I'm proven dead wrong. No, I'm not dead. There still are lurkers.
I will keep scumhunting and ignore accusations against me day 2 simply because I might not be able to defend myself in the light of this event and I don't want to waste energy on it.
My suspects against Ange777 were genuine. Her reads were without doubt better, and i got fooled by Sukis' postings.
However, mafia stepping out to defend someone who has a majority against him isn't mafia. That's usually where the bussing starts.
Feel free to call me a bloody noob. But think twice before thinking I'm mafia.
Have a look at the events before that lynch. Heist comes in at the 11th hour to to push hard on Unforgiven, and before that he really didn't do much. I need to look more at the filters, as this is more of a gut reaction, but I feel my direction is good.
I'm just enjoying the moment. We nailed the best possible lynch, and got a megaton of information along the way. Again, well done guys.
This gives us some information on the setup. We either have both a cop and a medic, or neither. With the roleblocker dead, it opens up the possibility for our cop (if we have one) to come out with guaranteed medic protection. I'm not so sure that this is a good idea so early though. I'll think on it.
Anyway, I'm just gonna take a break and then reread the thread, especially all that last-minute chaos. I'll probably post again before I go to sleep in about 6 hours.
Given Vivax' behaviour, his lack of content when defending Suki, his constant attacks at my credibility only for lurking, his odd reasoning he is my number 1 scum read right now.
For the newcomers: I've had my name changed from Cattivik to Vivax during the game. Just so you don't get confused from the posts i linked to.
Anyway, in light of the events I'll drop the FoS bomb.You might have noticed I like direct accusations.
FoS: Eishi_Ki , then Miltonkram.
Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia.
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
I think you must be town unless you planned a really risky bussing strategy with Suki for this game. That's still the only (although significant) thing going for you. Can you tell us who are your other Mafia reads? What do you think of Vivax, Heist, s0Lstice and me for being opposed to the lynch? What about Ange777? Are you still suspicious/neutral towards her?
I don't think Vivax is Mafia, although I was wrong about Suki too. He has put his own credibility on the line so many times, even brazenly defending Suki while it seemed inevitable he would be lynched.
I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.
Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else stated
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
Okay ... seems like I have to step back from a Unforgiven defense ...
What are you implying here? That if I flipped red you would be even more convinced that Suki is scum? If you truly think both of us scum there would be no way Suki wants to vote for me. He could easily stick to his vote on you and claim that he is still 100% convinced of you being mafia. High chance for other people to vote for me anyway, so why would he have to vote for me, make himself suspicious of vote switching and bandwaggoning? Furthermore, losing a scum buddy on day 1 would be awful for him. He would indeed prefer a NL instead of my lynch and therefore NOT vote for me!
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Danm...i thought this language thing would not be a problem, i see im mistaken...
I see my first post still is a problem for some players, i will try to summarize my response (for the last time) taking this post...
he states that you shouldn't use past games as a guide, yet he references two past games in the same post. He states that blue people shouldn't roleclaim, and yet they should roleclaim (as a last resort!). He states that mafia is more active during the last hours of the day, yet he slips in that he'll save his vote for the last hours as well, as if by stating it early he alleviates all suspicions on his actions later on. He's really against bandwagons, yet he asks for a town leader for people to follow.
when i say "dont use past game as a guide" i mean personally, dont look for the other games some especific player has played (¿sp?), they can change their way of playing very easily.
I just had played 1 game, blue roleclaiming at the end of the game is pretty obvious for me. I said i will save my vote for the last triying to show the town how is my style" of play, like i said, watching all the post, getting information, etc...but i see maybe i was wrong, one should adapt to the way the TOWN plays.
When i say town leader i ment someone who are good at making indepth anaysis and posts, who could get people thinking, who can sumarize 10 pages in one post... i think i did not made it very clear, but for a mafia this would be VERY hard to do, thats what i ment when i said "structure" just one or a couple of good players, not someone we will blindly follow...i forgot im in a newbie game ;D.
Now to all the new information... __________________________________________________________________________
This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think...
This new case (and votes) against Ange777... i did told you mafia would come at last hours for some activity uh? She's is now on my list, but suki remains number one, specially after this
On June 02 2012 01:45 suki wrote: I feel that lynching unforgiven at this point would give us a sure mafia lynch, but from the tone of the thread it doesn't seem like it will pass. I'll put off this discussion until day two.
Ange777 already has four votes on him, and by lynching him we rid ourselves of a lurker. To guarantee a Day 1 lynch I will vote for Ange777.
##Unvote Unforgiven_ve ##Vote Ange777
Same random blind vote agains a case someone's else started.
On June 02 2012 02:37 s0Lstice wrote: Xatalos asked me how I felt about Unforgiven in light of his defense.
I'm leaving my FoS where it is. When he finally had a little time to scum hunt, he pointed the finger at suki. It was a novel idea at the time, but to me it lacked effort. Look at sciberbia's post compared to his. Now, not all accusations have to have a big word count to be effective, but his effort just looks lazy. Does the reasoning he laid out really warrant a vote? Not to me.
He says Suki never pressured anyone, which is ironic because a big part of sciberbia's case is that he bandwagon pressured a lot of people. Whether he was first on the scene or not, he has pressured milton, unforgiven, vivix, and superouman. Saying he hasn't pressured anyone is just false.
His case is just 4 short points. The first I just discussed. Past that, his other points are a short filter, safe day 1 play, and some nonsense about taunting cattivik to butter him up for a day 2 vote. It's just not a lot to go on. Keep that in mind.
In his defense posts, he says we should discuss everything and nothing at the same time. Don't throw FoS around, or votes. Don't use meta arguments. What is his idea of hunting scum? Those two things are very important tools for applying pressure. He says we need structure, but never says what that is outside from some leader emerging to tell us what to do. His message remains totally unclear. Wait, be smart about scumhunting, and let people talk...but don't use half the tools in your arsenal to get them to talk.
He doesn't follow his own rules. He posts a 'meh' case on Suki and then votes right away. If he was following his own rules, I'd think he'd at least wait for a defense before throwing his vote around.
Bottom line is I like that he has started to make some effort to hunt scum, and I realize that he has had to spend a lot of time defending himself, but there are still so many inconsistencies in his play that my FoS stays put. I will keep watching.
On refresh I see there's a lot of other stuff going on right now so I'd better hurry up and post!
ç
Some tother time would say you are not good at reading and throw a light insult ;D but at this point of the game i (think?) know is me not knowing how to make a proper post. Im not good at writing long posts thats why i try to resume and point to the precise stuff i find scummy. Suki voted for Ange77 to enforce a day 1 lynch especially since YOU had only a single vote.
For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
As always, if anyone has any question please ask
You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.
My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.
##Unvote ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
So no, I don't think I'll be backing off him, thanks though.
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
This is just rude. Cut it out. It takes 7 votes to lynch someone, and you spent the time before the lynch flopping around like a fish out of water, reduced to pleading for votes. It's not our fault you drew so much suspicion for playing like shit.
Just because we lynched and hit red does not mean that Unforgiven is clear of suspicion. Let's not forget that his original case against suki was not very good. Sciberbia was the actual driving force behind it. It could have been a weak "bus" attempt that Unforgiven hoped would gain him town cred. His play close to deadline was also appalling. My original read on him was bad/confusing town but he's getting closer and closer to scum territory.
I'm off to work. Thanks for lifting my spirits with that lynch guys!
On June 02 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own.
In the beginning I just thought Unforgiven's play to be awful (no offense!).
non taken ;D...
Ok, to the people who says i could be mafia and just pushed the case on suki as mafia strategy...STOP THIS...remember this is a extended mayority lynch, the more you confuse people the harder it gets to reach mayority, now you see why i said "PLAY SMART" ?? its even more important in this kind of game... check my last posts, besides me, who was REALLY PUSHING on suki?
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
This is just rude. Cut it out. It takes 7 votes to lynch someone, and you spent the time before the lynch flopping around like a fish out of water, reduced to pleading for votes. It's not our fault you drew so much suspicion for playing like shit.
lol, just saw this, sorry ... its just what you experts refer as "metagame"?
Im sure im gonna die tonight (Xalatos, that means GAME's night ;D sorry), Possible escenarios for me
suki mafia, xalatos town: suki just used my "town leader" missunderstanding to try and push a mislynch on anyone Xalatos had on sight, he wanted to get a bandwagon rolling as long it werent on any of his friends, the other two mafias waited to see if this worked to jump at last hour.
suki mafia, Xalatos mafia: They accorded in their QT they would try to take "town leadership" to their own, Xalatos states a case, suki pushed it, some other couple townies fall for this, and the 3rd mafia joins to guarantee a mayority Because my post are a bit(lot?) confusing to townies, they want to use this to gain some advantage, leaving me alive and triying to get Ange777 instead.
suki mafia, heist town: heist missread everything i posted and just falls for the starting random post against me, he even dedicates a lines to me + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: @Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
Thanks to this post i made my acussation against suki and started to get more agressive, thank you! He then casta vote to superouman and later falls for teh case against me.
suki mafia, heist mafia this is where it gets interesting, His first post a some random tips to me, attacks some random townies, wants to look "neutral" when my case was starting to get some heat, when things seemed to reach a finishing point, he drops this pearl
You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.
My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.
##Unvote ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
You know, just cassually voting to the main (innocent) target at the time...and then one hour before deadline, he cast his vote against suki, because you know, he said MANY TIMES lynching is preferably to nothing and he had to stand by his word ... im already seeing the mafia QT "HEY SUKI IM SORRY, WE NEED TO WINZ LOLZ"
That makes him slightly higher on my list.
FoS (and pretty sure vote, at least something really weird happens or if im alive at day 2) heist
As always, if you dont understand something and/or want to ask something, please do. i'll be checking from my phone tonight
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
This is just rude. Cut it out. It takes 7 votes to lynch someone, and you spent the time before the lynch flopping around like a fish out of water, reduced to pleading for votes. It's not our fault you drew so much suspicion for playing like shit.
may i remind you, pleading for votes to get a mafia(roleblocker) at D1, read my last post, and make a better one please, it worked one time, why not twice ;D
This is the last I'm going to say on this. It has nothing to do with this Mafia game. I'm even going to spoiler it. Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Do you see anybody else here calling other people names? Want to know why it's just you? Because you're being an asshole. Assholes insult people, and then tell them not to take it personal, like that makes it ok. This being a game doesn't give you license to be condescending and disrespectful. In fact, it's the opposite. If you want respect, you show respect. I can't speak for everyone else, but for me, you have made this game less fun with your recent posts.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
@Xatalos I disagree that I avoided the thread. If you really want to know, here is how my day went: + Show Spoiler +
- I woke up about 5 hours before the deadline. - I spent about 2 hours reading the thread and making some posts. - I was AFK for about two hours. - I returned with less than an hour left. I made a post and followed the thread until the deadline.
By nature, I'm not aggressive, emotional, or overly sure of myself, so I may not have been as "in the spotlight" as other players such as Vivax, Ange, Unforgiven. But, I think I contributed all my relevant opinions to the discussion and tried to steer us on the right track. Not sure what else you really wanted from me.
In response to your demand for substance to atone for my 2 hours AFK, I think I've been providing substance all game, and I intend to continue to do so.
For most of day 1, he has had one target, and that is Vivix.
His first accusation against him contained the following points: a perceived contradiction, and his views/defense of sciberbia.
This is the contradiction. Vivix says he sees the reason behind sciberbia's no-lynch argument, but still prefers to lynch. Seeing the logic and worthyness of considering of an idea, but still coming down on the other side of it is not a contradiction, provided you supply the reasons for doing so. Vivix does; he says he still wants to lynch to get rid of lurkers right off the bat or act on a strong scum read, and get lynch information earlier rather than later.
His views and defense on sciberbia have been covered a lot, so I'll just say one thing about this. Vivix has been steadfast in his convictions consistently. At the time, the sample size was small and no pattern had developed yet, so the suspicion is warranted. As the game goes on however, nobody should be surprised that Vivix was so sure on his first town read. He is consistently steadfast in all of his opinions.
Moving on. He posts some filler before addressing Vivix again. The filler is basically asking Eishi_Ki to clarify his thoughts on Vivix, asks Vivix to post more, and pressures the lurkers. Nothing really scummy here, he is just doing due diligence on his case.
His second address to Vivix has one repeated point and one new one: Vivix' sure read on sciberbia, and his hasty vote on Eishi_Ki. His read on sciberbia I've talked about already...his vote on Eishi_Ki represented his first scum hunting target. He went after him full force and voted. Again, these are consistent with Vivix' aggressive play. He defends a town read aggressively, and pursues a scum read aggressively.
Next he addresses someone new, and its Unforgiven. He chimes in with his thoughts, which is fine. It's the current subject matter. He uses a lot of words to say that he agrees on the suspicions, but will reserve judgement. It's a very safe stance. He follows this up with further safe pressure on the lurkers.
His third address to Vivix. He again uses a lot of words to say basically: I don't agree that your high activity and extremeness makes you absolutely town, and you may be doing it to obscure the scummy things you do. This is trumped up WIFOM + Show Spoiler +
Vivix as scum thinks, I'll be careful but still contribute. But wait! That is what they are expecting! I'll be aggressive to throw them off my trail. But wait, maybe they are expecting me to expect that so I'll be more careful. But wait! etc etc
There's a reason constant aggression reads as town: because in more cases than not, it is town.
His fourth address to Vivix. He harps again on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia. He keeps driving this point, and damns him for finding a townie and not hunting scum. Except....Vivix has been hunting his top scum read: Eishi_Ki. This just makes no sense. Vivix scum hunt was aggressive and obvious. There is no excuse for ignoring it in this context.
You know who else kept harping on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia? Suki
Something else Suki did was to drop his main suspicion in favor of another target. Heist does this too, stating that he is giving Vivix the benefit of the doubt, and then votes for a lurker. Not the lurker that has had the most buzz going for a policy lynch, but Superouman. Essentially a wasted vote.
In summary: -Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak point -his fast read and defense of sciberbia -WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse -spending time confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is -Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and 'wait and see' on Unforgiven -Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt' -votes for a lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet
This is shortly after Ange shows up. She takes the time to defend herself some and promises a scum read soon. While she is away doing that, sciberbia makes a post trying to organize everyone onto one person, and the votes on Ange go to 6 when I vote.
Ange comes back and posts her read on Suki. It is solid, compelling, and, as we know now, dead on. She votes Suki right away, giving him 3 votes. Xatalos responds that he likes her contribution, and sciberbia comes back trying to illustrate how lynching suki is the best option for us as a group based on our stated convictions. Unforgiven chimes in to reinforce his Suki vote. I mention as well that her case is pretty good, and combined with all else, would draw my vote if he was our choice.
The atmosphere at was pretty anti-Suki, and only getting worse. With Ange posting a very solid scum read, and a couple people suggesting she should live. If this goes further, Suki would definitely replace Ange as the consensus choice.
Now Ange pursues Unforgiven, and pretty hard too, dropping a quick FoS. Xatalos follows up with his earlier suspicions and votes for him. This is a shake and bake counter movement to the building case on Suki. While this is going on, Suki draws another vote from Milton. That makes 4.
This is when Heist enters, when Suki is in a lot of danger, and there is a counter-movement swelling. He jumps all over Unforgiven. He went from non-commital on Unforgiven to all out war without any in-between, right at the time when the case was countering Suki's. He flat out yells at Vivix to not vote for Suki. He removes his vote on Superouman citing it as useless, only to place it on another useless case that had the third most votes. The only conceivable use it has is to stop the lynch of Suki.
With 12 minutes left, he switches to Suki once it is clear that he is the consensus choice. This gave us majority on Suki, but Xatalos had already agreed that he would vote to ensure a lynch vs a no-lynch if it came to it, so it was going to happen anyway. What it also does is give him some deniability when Suki flipped scum. Not a lot, but some.
In summary: -swoops in when the pressure on Suki is getting bad -pursues a useless counter-case vigorously against a player who he has been ambivalent about -switches his useless vote from one place to another useless place -was one of the very last to come in to vote for suki
I think he has tied himself pretty strongly to Suki. What do others think about this?
EBWOP: The in-summary section for the scum hunting portion should read as follows:
In summary: A) Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak points i) his fast read and defense of sciberbia ii) WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse iii) spending time on confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is
B) Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and a 'wait and see' on Unforgiven
C) Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt'
D) Votes for a Lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet
I'm off to bed. Probably won't post again for at least 10 hours. I'm about halfway through rereading the thread and plan to finish before the deadline tomorrow. Night.
Once again, sorry for not being around. First off, I want to apologise to Ange, my accusation was just to qualify a vote for a D1 lynch and you seemed like the most likely candidate by the time I left. However, you fought very well and my decision was regrettable. I am glad it has not adversely affected the game. I am 100% sure you are not a mafioso as it would take a pretty absent goon to finger their most powerful asset. Plus your case was well constructed, cohesive and, though not particularly timely, was convincing.
Regarding Suki, I should have followed through with my suspicions but I was sidetracked. I am sorry about that also.
The result means Unforgiven is more than likely not mafia either as he pleaded with everyone to vote for Suki; same reasoning as Ange.
Now, Xatalos. For one, it's been mentioned multiple times that my timezone means I will not be active close to deadlines, sorry bout that, RL calls and all that, yet you continue to inquire for an explanation for my inactivity. Creating chaos or missed the multiple posts, seems suspicious, care to comment? A very strong defence of Suki in your posts indicate either true ignorance or protection and after Suki was lynched, you comment that your judgement was way off, so you could be wrong again, so tell me, if you can't read people and your certainties are actually false, are you actually that useful? Vivax made the same defence of Suki and my reservations regarding him are seeming more and more well founded
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL.
Also people seem to have forgotten about O.Golden_ne, he has been replaced, still his behaviour was more of a lurking one. We have to see if his replacement might end up being mafia. It's important to not forget about him and go through his filter, which I will do after this post.
Anyway, my updated FoS: heist, Eishi_Ki for being defended by suki and targeting unforgiven, xatalos and me.
You bring up some important things I want to address Vivax
His support of Ange came only after she had started attacking Unforgiven. I feel that's pretty important. Yes she also accused Suki, but Heist was attempting to add his voice to her case on Unforgiven to make it appear more attractive. He supports the driving force in the counter-movement to Suki's lynch (Ange's argument on Unforgiven), and also goes after her target with gusto. Both things contribute to stop the lynch of Suki. He was doing everything in his power to make the case on Unforgiven gain leverage.
Also, about him easily blending in on the Ange777 bandwagon. When she came in and started posting, that bandwagon lost a lot of steam. It became increasingly clear to him, as it did to me, that the Ange777 lynch was not going to happen in light of her last minute heroics. The pressure had definitely shifted to Suki as the next best lynch target, and Heist had to jump in and do his best to abate the movement to his scumbuddy.
Lastly, you say his Superouman vote was only in place until a Suki majority was possible. This would be fine if he had switched to Suki, but he didn't. He switched to the case with the 3rd most number of votes. Again, the only explanation I can find for this is to stop the lynch on Suki.
The contradiction you bring up is interesting, and I had missed it. It makes it seem more likely that his thoughts on Suki being town were just posturing, considering how quickly he abandons the thought.
sorry all. epic fail on my behalf. girls + booze + friday = waking up saturday morning thinking - a) where am i. and b) oh no everyone at Mafia game will hate me. gl. gg
Ange777, are you there? I think you're the most likely night kill at this point, so you should focus on sharing your reads before the deadline hits. Vivax is your top suspect, but your reasoning isn't fleshed out yet. And really, I'm not convinced that Vivax is Mafia. But I was wrong about Suki, so...
I'm going to be offline for a bit, but I'm almost ready to post a case on my top read. I just want to first see the night kill and possible new posts by him. I doubt my read is going to change at this point though, unless something dramatic happens (such as him being shot or suddenly becoming a convincing townie player). But everything is connected, and I feel like it would be a waste to post lengthy analysis of the game right now, since I don't know why Mafia would shoot me instead of Ange777.
If you think you might be shot now, though, go ahead and share your views before it's too late. Just a few hours before Mafia make their move.
O.Golden_ne's filter mostly coincides with that of heist when it comes to changing and setting trends. To his defense, he didn't question my read regarding sciberbia=townie as much as suki and heist. Not so good: He acknowledged mafia first post is improbable, however he didn't produce any information regarding the matter by himself, he grappled onto miltonkram's opinion instead.
I'm especially interested in his voting pattern in this post. He has 2 lurkers, me and unforgiven_ve while there's a bandwagon forming on him initially pushed by s0lstice and Xatalos, while now he's a confirmed townie.
I've ignored the next two posts which were basically mudthrowing. Feel free to look em up.
Quite decisive post, he tries the same maneuver as heist and wants to deflect attention from suki. You might think now, I've done that too. There is a difference between my behavior and that of heist and O.Golden: First of all, heist and O.Golden never say that suki might be town like I did. If that's not keeping one's head low, I don't know, they preferred to emphasize the importance of a lurker lynch instead of attacking the case on suki like I did, which would bite you in the ass later if you were mafia. It's just safer play for scum. You know my style, I'm posting a lot, I'm aggressive, I don't fear making mistakes when I'm completely sure of my case.
Then I have been pushing the D1 lynch on Ange777 from the start, heist preferred to vote for another lurker (superouman)...And O.Golden_ne didn't vote at all. He still had plenty of time to vote, but he kept lurking until his party evening, while stirring suspicions against other players, never taking a hard stance.
This is one of my analysis posts. Look how i resume that suki actually supported some of the pressure on Eishi_Ki, I forgot his stance on Eishi when lynch time came and got fooled into believing he's townie.
This is his stance on Eishi_Ki:
Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.
The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
With the last points I'm SURE that I've made another mistake when it comes to Eishi_Ki, the mafia didn't fear to deflect attention to him and Eishi_Ki also called out suki in the beginning, I think even before Unforgiven_ve.
Eishi_Ki, excuse me for trying to prove you guilty so hard, but it also has good sides, we now know the remaining two mafia members:
I read the case against heist, it has some very good points and got me thinking about him but I have not checked his filter myself yet. In the meantime I am going to post a detailed case on Vivax before deadline.
@ s0Lstice + Vivax Golden's play does remind me a lot of the way he played in NMM XIV and he flipped town. I don't think we can put too much faith in meta arguments. Golden's meta is a great meta if he rolled scum this game. I just think we need to take a look at how ShiaoPi plays this game out. I'd advocate disassociating his play with Golden's because I don't think anyone has a good read on him.
I've got analysis of several players that I'm going to post right before the deadline. I don't want to post it earlier because it may give scum more information and help them choose their shot. I'll be back soon.
@ Xatalos Unfortunately I have class during the two hours right before the deadline. The class often ends a little bit early so I was able to make it on just in time to make a quick post and see the lynch results.
The case against heist is decent, but I'm not convinced. He was very reluctant to change his vote to suki. If scum go all in on a bussing attempt it's meant to take pressure off of themselves. If scum were to bus each other, I'd think they would try to attract more attention to the fact that they were voting scum in order to take pressure off of themselves, much like someone else I can think of (Unforgiven). I still need to reread s0Lstice's case on heist, so I'll go through the case and heist's filter again with an open mind.
Let's look at Unforgiven's play. There were three main players pushing for suki's lynch: Sciberbia, Ange777, and Unforgiven. Of the three, which of them flaunted the fact that they voted for scum? Showing off that he voted for scum is not a play that helps town, it's a play to keep himself alive. Keeping oneself alive is scum motivation, that or he's town with a massive ego. I won't write off either possibility. Let's not forget that his case against suki was really flimsy. It's possible that he posted that case on actual scum in order to take pressure off himself, but also with the expectation that the case would be dropped.
Time is running out so I need to get this out there in case I die. As we got closer to the lynch deadline, Vivax's points and posting got more and more nonsensical. It doesn't take a great leap of judgement to think that Vivax panicked as his scumbuddy got closer and closer to the chopping block. In my last game I remember how difficult it was not to panic whenever pressure was on me or my partner in scum. That may have happened with him.
If I'm still alive come day post I still have a lot of work to do. I need to read through the filters more and try to map out accusations, counter-accusations, and defenses as they happened. I will post again when I feel I have a better handle on this game.
I've read through everyone's filters and updated my reads on everyone. I think that there is some chance I die tonight, so I've got some stuff I wanna say now.
Here are my top 2 reads: I find heist scummy I find golden/shiaopi suspicious
I still think Cattivik is probably townie
If I'm alive tomorrow, I'll be more than happy to expand on these. If I'm dead tomorrow, I request that you put at least some weight on my reads, but don't live and die by them.
@Town If, at any point in the game, you are saved by a medic (you will be notified via PM), it makes most sense to just claim this instantly. The mafia already know this (because their target isn't dead), so you might as well just give the town the same information. This confirms you as townie because it'd be a terrible idea to fakeclaim this as mafia.
@Cop If we have a cop, you know for a fact that we have a medic. If you get a guilty check, you should try to get the mafia lynched without claiming. But if that doesn't work, just claim. You might want to claim before then if you think you are likely to be hit by mafia, just so you get medic protection. I think it also makes a lot of sense to claim once you have 2 safe checks that are still alive, but it's a judgement call. You might also consider coming out if we are about to mislynch a known townie.
Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
My top scum read right now is Vivax. There are several reasons which I am going to explain in detail. This will be a long post, please read it carefully and to the end! 1. His first posts and case against Eishi
From the start Vivax was an active poster and seemed like an aggressive player not being afraid to share his read on other people. Which normally makes a player a town read. So far so good. But he generated a bit of suspicion by his claim that sciberbia having posted as the first player automatically makes him town.
On May 31 2012 08:39 Vivax wrote: Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game.
When being critized for this statement by heist he claims following:
On May 31 2012 09:34 heist wrote: That defense is borderline scummy. There is nothing that mafia won't do. Do not assume he's clean because he's the first post in a newbie game. Obviously this is only your first impression, but your reasoning is a little off here.
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you.
This is not a decent way to answer any concerns voiced by other players. Considering other players to be town just by activity is a mistake. But when people try to explain this to him, he just shuts down their accusation without answering them. And that is a pattern which I encountered quite often when reading Vivax' filter or talking to Vivax.
Vivax then starts a case against Eishi. A poor case based on his statement of due to living in a different timezone he probably won't have the time to be online before deadlines.
On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote: Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this:
On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
##VOTE :Eishi_Ki
Eishi's argument for suspecting Vivax was weak therefore I can understand that Vivax might have concerns with Eishi's play. But again Vivax judges purely based on activity! (See underlined parts) Eishi's explanation for his probable absence was more than decent and having been absent myself I am more than willing to give him the benefit of doubt. But this is not how Vivax sees it. In his opinion lurking=mafia, active=townie. Interesting deduction.
On May 31 2012 21:13 Eishi_Ki wrote: What would you like to know about my thought processes? I can't tell you how my brains works, only that I analyse details at face value and then have a lot of time to think about them further. I noted initially that you were trying to sell that you were a Townie without saying so outright
Oh, you can tell me what you thought. This argument of yours makes you appear even more scummy. Why? It's selective! Did you read Heists' post?It's even more recent than mine, he uses the collective form more times than me, yet you say i'm suspicious. Either you were sloppy, or you are scum trying to let me look suspicious, in latter case: Does that mean I was on the right track?Or that Heist is scum aswell?
Being confronted with Eishi's answer what does Vivax do? He deflects from himself but starts to throw some mud on Heist.
I like Eishi's defense. He states his opinion without being swayed by others and has sound arguments about Vivax' attack being very unclear and inconcise:
On June 01 2012 14:38 Eishi_Ki wrote: After dropping the subject of Vivax because there wasn't a lot to talk about, I now feel I have more substantial points. First off
Eishi_Ki: Pretty poor arguments to accuse me, but blends in well with the opinions of the former posts.You also say you have a reason to keep lurking. A win/win situation for mafia. You also suspect those who are most active here. Then there's this: On May 31 2012 14:04 Eishi_Ki wrote: Yeah just a note on my activity times, I live in Korea so 7am KST actually 7am (whodathunk) and I gotta work, so activity time before the deadline will be minimal I'm afraid (or maybe it's a good thing, hmm)
Dude, what. How is it a good thing? You are basically saying that you won't contribute much to the scumhunt while the scumjuice flows out of your every pore. I don't even want to go on with other players cause I think you should start telling us more about your thought processes:
Yes, i never supported a NL, but aknocwledged sciberbias point I suggest that you keep the discussion to yourself, you talk a lot about me, not about the accusations towards you. If you admit you are scum now, you may choose the way you get lynched, Eishi_Ki, like being drowned in single malt whisky to have a last taste of your country. I'll keep the vote locked in.
Continues on the warpath with no sway in opinion whatsoever.
Next post, after my rebuttal, he continues to press the issue.
On June 01 2012 01:36 s0Lstice wrote: You decided to vote for him based on the fact that his schedule means he can't be around during lynch time, and him wondering if it's a good thing that he isn't around during that time.
You mean his joke?Yes, I didn't get the joke.
My main points (which I wonder you don't know, cause they were at the beginning of my argumentation against him) are that he just started posting after two accusations were out, with the claim of me talking of 'us' townies with the purpose of making myself sound as if I were one, while heist, a few posts above, does exactly the same thing I did.
So Eishi_Ki bandwagoned with a very weak claim, a very small post and no pressure to post in the future cause of his schedule.
Also, notice how once confronted with his weak claim he suddenly accuses three other people but not me anymore. He must have noticed that his claim is really weak and is now dodging the accusations. He also denied a statement concerning the weak claim instead asking what the accusation is. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298¤tpage=8#143
I think there is not enough information on unforgiven, except for a nonexistent post analysis. He gave general tips so far, then he agreed with statements from other players without questioning them and without posting something concrete.
I'll stick to my opinion regarding sciberbia and Eishi_Ki. In case I won't have a majority on Eishi_Ki, I'll try to help achieve the majority on the case i believe is most correct in order to get a Day 1 lynch 100%.
And up to this point I STILL don't know what I was accused of. I never asserted that I was accusing you, only that I was suspicious. What do you want, a full accusation after you post a couple of times? I felt the need to contribute, and I did. Yes my points were weak but I frankly don't know anything about D1 vs D2 lynch so I opted out of saying anything in that regard. Plus, it was a dead horse.
Finally, since that point, I have said nothing regarding Vivax to sway or dissuade him (sleeping and working). But from going from a vehement hyper aggressive vote for myself to this....
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Ange777: Permanent lurker. He promised he would contribute something soon. If it's not enough, I will vote for him first and unvote Eishi_Ki.
...does seem highly suspicious. I haven't attempted to change your mind on your vote, so why the weak knees and change of heart to calling out a lurker? Was it everyone else basically telling you your argument was moot and that my responses were adequate? In either case, I had you fingered from the start and my suspicions were not waived despite moving onto other subjects. Here be mafia.
Vivax' answer:
On June 01 2012 19:32 Vivax wrote: I'll stop giving accurate posts where i quote myself and others in chronological order, since some people don't seem to be able to read that information properly, else they wouldn't still be thinking I'm not town. So I'll keep the answers restricted to your post especially concerning the comments on the spoilers:
Spoiler1: See spoiler3
Spoiler2: That was an answer to your accusation that I want a D1L while supporting sciberbias' idea of a NL, which you felt was contradictory.
Spoiler3: What rebuttal of yours?post that too maybe. Anyway, the accusation is written in the spoiler: Jumping on the bandwagon with heist and Golden_ne with a really weak claim. The time schedule might be a reason for you to be less active, still it's something every good townie should be suspicious at first glance. Also, notice how you post -again- after the two of them posted already a claim against me. You seem to really like to show up together with them and ignoring other town matters to push the case against me.
Spoiler4: This spoiler really makes me wonder if you're actually reading the thread. You should really do that. I'll read that for you, my post in the spoiler was an answer to suki, who wanted me to put your case aside and hear opinions about other players. That's what I've done, scummy?Hell no, one of the few times I can actually push the scumhunt cause I don't have to defend myself from feeble accusations.
Anyway, even if my case on you might be wrong, it has pulled out so much information that you won't be able to not get pressured in case I die, along with some other folk.
Reading this actually gives me a very angry and emotional vibe. Once again Vivax accuses Eishi based on his time matters. Once for the activity and once for the timing of his post. Why is he so fixated on the lurking and timing thing? It is one of the earlier signs in the scumhunt but should not be your only criteria! As Eishi has continually contributed on the Vivax' case I assume that he was not just blindly "bandwagoning" on a case on Vivax. Vivax finally ends his post with a warning not to lynch him. Why would he feel the need to claim that? Scared of being suspected by town?
2. Vivax' interaction with me
It starts with Vivax' vote on me. His reasoning is the following:
On June 01 2012 19:32 Vivax wrote: If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777. It's a day 1 with lots of information from almost everybody with exception of him, and I can say for sure that this day 1 has been a fingerpointing match like it shouldn't have been for a good town. Let's at least try to finish it with something we have an agreement on: Like most of us stated, the lurkers should get lynched first unless we already have strong scumreads. And if this guy is mafia, he doesn't have to contribute anything as of now to remain unharmed.
So I have absolutely no chance of flipping blue? How can Vivax possibly know that? I try to confront him on this odd statement:
On June 02 2012 02:09 Ange777 wrote: Also, why is there no chance at all of hitting blue with me? I am NOT claiming blue right now ... I just don't know how you can ever be sure of that.
Lol what kind of argument is that: 'I might be blue'. Sounds exactly like the type of argument someone without arguments would use, you can apply it on anyone who didn't let any 100 % obvious scumreads slip while lurking all the time. You had the chance to set your priorities between this mafia game and the others. But until the last hours, there were no votes against you, so you didn't feel the need to be more active in this one.
Now that the guns are pointed at you, you come out swinging to defend yourself.
In my opinion one has no choice but to lynch you.
I clearly state that I am NOT claiming blue. I just want to know how he can say this because there IS no way to know for sure. But what does Vivax do? Oh yes, he again ignores the question but instead twists my words into "I might be blue".
After reading my defense this is what Vivax posts:
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I think we should keep pushing the case against Ange777, right now she's trying to undig cases on all possible people. I understand that there might be pressure cause of the limited time, but backing off from this target now puts the town at great danger of a No-Lynch.
And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already. Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start. It's a real bad time for controversy.
He claims Suki's filter looks good. Therefore anyone against Suki is bad townie or mafia. Then he states that I deserve to be lynched for my lurking. This is not a very good defense of Suki or a good reason for me to be killed off. I have stated several times that lynching lurkers is better than a NL but I came back with the wish to contribute. Therefore I asked Vivax to explain his stance:
On June 02 2012 05:02 Ange777 wrote: Vivax, are you seriously coming in and trying to defend Suki without any real effort? If you have problems with my case against him, please state them and tell me, why do you believe me to be mislead.
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
And Suki IS bandwagoning. He was the 5th player to vote for me, I can't see how this counts as "the first".
You are right, I've mistaken miltons' post for sukis. Still doesn't change my opinion after reading his filter. Going for the lynch as opposed to a NL will always look like a bandwagon. In fact, when there aren't any decisive reads, there has to be a bandwagon. But better that than more confusion. I've also said heist shouldn't try to disrupt the voting process against you, should it be one vote away from a majority, cause then we will end up without information. That doesn't mean I will accuse him for bandwagoning just cause he's the last to vote.
There are no proper scumreads in his posts, one of the most early scumreads is inactivity, by which you shined. I've already compared the times of your posts in the other games with those in this one, and you didn't feel pressured to post in this one when you did in the other. You've either set your priorities in a way that it will make you look suspicious, or you are scum.
Then this case on suki, it's just perfect for you, the contribution you are giving us concerns mostly him, and you also vote for him. Since there is already a fair amount of people suspecting him, it's just natural you're gonna try to spin momentum away from your towards his case. Also, you post a lot of small posts effectively diluting the thread.
Look, I'm suspicious to a bunch of people already, I am pushing the accusation against you. Then why do you just pick sukis' case cause it's the case where you could obtain a majority and not get lynched? Cause it's gonna be too hard for you to push a case on me, heist and Golden tried, now they're silent when it won't work. Who defended you?Heist. Guess what, his first line regarding you was: 'Let us hear something from you. No pressure.' He's going pretty soft on you despite being a lurker.
As I have stated several times, I understand the need to lynch. Better lynch a lurker than a NL. Everyone agrees.
I tried to explain why I posted in the other game instead of this one. Yesterday was the voting deadline for TL Mafia LV. I felt it was more important to catch up with that thread and vote there because I would have time today to contribute in our game.
While I believe that inactivity is indeed an early scumread, lurking that excessivly as I have done is just far too noticeable that I don't believe scum would actually try to follow this strategy.
The case against Suki is not based on previous suspicions from other players but on my own reasoning. There have been points that I made in my case which where not mentioned yet in the thread. If I had known that picking someone who I believe is actually scummy makes me scum ... guess I should have "picked" you as you proposed ... Why do you want me to build a case against you? I haven't yet commented on your play. Is there anything scummy I skipped that would have made a case against you better than a case against Suki?
And yes, Heist is "going soft" on me .... BECAUSE I was "only" lurking. And besides lurking there was nothing else that made me scummy.
I don't like your defense of Suki at all. Basically you try two things:
1) You try to discredit me by saying that I chose an easy case. I can only say, I am pretty convinced by my case of Suki and would have posted a similar case on anybody whom I believed to be scummy.
2) You try to say I am scummy because I lurked. Now that I unlurk don't you think that should somehow revert your judgement? Or are you saying that I am now scummy BECAUSE I unlurked?
This is not a defense at all. You only discredit ME, but you don't explain Suki's behaviour. I have stated that he had more than enough time to start a good case on Unforgiven (which I would have seconded having seen Unforgiven's latest posts) and you only repeat that you think his filter is good?
Oh yes ... and finally the biggest loop in your logic. I don't need a majority for Suki if the only thing I was concerned about was staying alive. Getting a NL would suffice if I was mafia.
Please come up with a better defense ... otherwise I will be presenting you with a FoS as well.
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. No matter what my opinion on the suspect is, the alignment flipping will unveil a crapload of information.
That said, if suki is gonna flip town, I really hope you will be able to recognize Ange777's motives behind her intention to push a case on him.
If suki flips mafia, then I was clearly wrong and might end up in trouble for defending him. That would also prove Ange777 innocent and everyone supporting the vote first (not the ones joining in when it was obvious).
I thought you are pretty sure of him being town ...
However, do you notice how there's actually noone defending suki as of now except me?While there are a bunch of persons trying to deflect the attention from Ange777. Really, it's disgusting to see how people turn from the lurker to the poster in the arc of three hours, whereas the poster has been active all the time. And all of that happening in the last hours, making the outcome more uncertain, the mafia stronger.
Would you mind explaining who is deflecting attention away from me? I think I made a pretty good case and took a clear stance in my gameplay, that is why people are switching their votes off of me and start voting Suki or Unforgiven. Yes, Suki was active for a far longer way than me but activity alone should not be a reason to not suspect someone or not lynch someone.
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
I apologize for my absence. I am really sorry and I know that this impacts the game poorly and hurts the fun of playing Mafia. But this is no reason to lynch me. I am here and posting right now. Are you saying you would rather lynch me even if I am town than keep me alive?
All in all I feel you don't care to comment on my posts at all. You again only try to discredit me and blame my lack of posting. It does get old after a while .... are you running out of reasons to defend Suki, your scum buddy?
##FoS Vivax
And no, I don't give random FoS onto players who accuse me. I try to calmly explain my reasoning and talk to Vivax, but somehow he always dodges my concerns and has never given any defense for Suki's play.
One little thing to add: Without me spamming the thread in the last few hours, even if you guys lynched me you would not have gained any information at all. Vivax, you should be happy that I started this discussion - as long as we do manage to lynch someone today of course.
All the time I wanted an explanation from him for Suki's gameplay. And all he delivers is my lurking is scummy, my unlurking is scummy and discredits me for being a bad person for lurking. He even goes as far as
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight.
Seriously? Yeah sure, that is why I claimed girl ...
With less than an hour to go he than switches his vote to me. It could be interpreted that you think a NL is worse than a sure mislynch (as you are so sure about Suki flipping town) but it could also be interpreted that you realise you can't safe your scum buddy anymore.
As it is close to deadline now I am pressured to finish this post and will therefore ask you to go through Vivax' filter closely again especially the new ones from night 1 and ask yourself if this really is just a bad townie player or if there isn't some scum motivation behind his behaviour.
His night 1 cases give me a very desperate vibe. Out of the blue he starts to make some cases again. He conveniently supports the case on heist or in his own words "bandwagons" on the heist case and even calls out Golden/ShiaoPi, which is a bad idea as Golden's posts don't suffice at the moment for any read. But these are safe cases as there is already some suspicion against heist and you never go wrong when accusing a lurker. In the beginning of night 1 he stated that he won't further comment on the happnenings of day 1 but focus on night 1. If I was town I would definitely try to explain myself why I defended scum the entire day, even gave scum a 100% town read and tunneled the player who revived the case for being scummy for lurking and bad as a person.
I also want to add this from his filter:
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
This is from his defense on the case against him. At that time he was in no serious danger of getting lynched yet he feeled the need to warn all the players not to lynch him. Very very odd.
3. TLDR
I think Vivax is scum because: - His best argument in hunting scum has repeatedly been lurking=scum, active=town. Very flawed logic! Maybe to show that by his own standard and his own high activity he should be considered town? - He only made "safe" cases until now. Case against Eishi was easy to start, so was his case against me and now heist, Golden/ShiaoPi - When arguing with him about Suki, he never once talked about the content of Suki's post but always emphasized that my lurking play hurt town and therefore I should be lynched - Even without once explaining his Suki town read he defended Suki till the end and only switched when there was no chance of getting me lynched - Odd posts implying that one should not lynch him as he is townie (without being in danger), odd post of claiming I can't flip blue, a lot of flawed logic (two mafia can't vote each other), ....
I know that right now it might look like I am tunneling Vivax but he IS my top scum read. There might be a 1% chance of him playing an awful awful town play but I just can't see it. If Vivax you seriously want to convince me of you being town, then please start defending yourself.
(Good chance I missed something in my post as I was really crammed for time when typing this! Please bear that in mind and read Vivax' filter yourself!)
Unforgiven's play still doesn't strike me as townie even though he sided with the right vote .... don't know what to do with that right now.
On June 03 2012 07:19 Vivax wrote: And guess who his case was: heist. -_-
That is something to consider but also keep in mind that everyone should read through the case and form his own opinion. He is dead which makes him a confirmed townie, but not everything he said should be taken for granted as that is trying to decipher Mafia's intentions which ends in WIFOM
I think Vivax is scum because: - His best argument in hunting scum has repeatedly been lurking=scum, active=town. Very flawed logic! Maybe to show that by his own standard and his own high activity he should be considered town? - He only made "safe" cases until now. Case against Eishi was easy to start, so was his case against me and now heist, Golden/ShiaoPi - When arguing with him about Suki, he never once talked about the content of Suki's post but always emphasized that my lurking play hurt town and therefore I should be lynched - Even without once explaining his Suki town read he defended Suki till the end and only switched when there was no chance of getting me lynched - Odd posts implying that one should not lynch him as he is townie (without being in danger), odd post of claiming I can't flip blue, a lot of flawed logic (two mafia can't vote each other), ....
I know that right now it might look like I am tunneling Vivax but he IS my top scum read. There might be a 1% chance of him playing an awful awful town play but I just can't see it. If Vivax you seriously want to convince me of you being town, then please start defending yourself.
(Good chance I missed something in my post as I was really crammed for time when typing this! Please bear that in mind and read Vivax' filter yourself!)
Unforgiven's play still doesn't strike me as townie even though he sided with the right vote .... don't know what to do with that right now.
And please don't forget the lurkers!
Argument 1: Yes, I should have totally ignored the lurkers and let them lurk to not force them to post something which might give us reads on them, that's an awesome idea for early game town. The lurker lynching policy is general consensus here, as you might have noticed before your arrival. Now that pretty much everyone has posted something, you know that it's cause there are people favoring lurker lynches.
Argument 2: Case against Eishi was the least supported case there has been so far, the only one stirring distrust against him was suki initially, but then he told me to put him and sciberbia aside to talk about other players. Suki kept pushing cases against me more heavily than against Eishi_Ki. The case against you wasn't safe either. There are enough inconsistencies in your play, one of them being you suspecting unforgiven but supporting his case (I think Milton disagreed and mentioned that it might have been bussing by unforgiven_ve, but so early?No way.
you said I should look at the times of the posts, I did that: + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:25 Ange777 wrote:
What exactly is your so-called scumtell? That I side with Unforgiven on the case against Suki? If you read correctly, I changed my opinion on Unforgiven after his recent posts and only after my case on Suki.
I don't understand the problem.
On June 02 2012 06:19 Ange777 wrote: I would consolidate on a Unforgiven lynch as I have posted my concerns about his recent play. Still I believe Suki to be more scummy.
On June 02 2012 06:16 Ange777 wrote: Would you mind explaining who is deflecting attention away from me? I think I made a pretty good case and took a clear stance in my gameplay, that is why people are switching their votes off of me and start voting Suki or Unforgiven. Yes, Suki was active for a far longer way than me but activity alone should not be a reason to not suspect someone or not lynch someone.
You never discharged unforgiven, and that's where I saw the lie, especially given the close posting times contradicting themselves so clearly.
Argument 3: Indeed, I wanted to lynch you for the sudden appearance throwing FoS at active townies after the votes on you started, and just then. You had the worst possible timing to appear, by your own choice to focus on the other game, you acknowledged the points that the behavior was bad for the town, so I don't see how the lynching shouldn't have been justified.
Argument 4: What's suspicious about switching when I'm trying by all means to get a day1 lynch? I was last to vote before heist. This is an argument like argument 1, every townie here would have voted for suki to get the day 1 lynch, Eishi was afk, so was Golden, and suki just remained silent while I was unfortunately defending him already.
tl dr ;
At the moment you are blind to the scumreads that suki's death offers. You didn't even adress the two posts I've made about heists and golden based on sukis' stances in connection with them, and that together with the guy who just got killed.
S0lstice was ready to push the case along with me, and he's the least suspected townie here. Why should I kill the guy who's gonna support me in the case on heist and formerly Golden, the case I'm pushing with strong reads?
After a mafias' death, you first analyze their filter, then you might start attacking those who defended the dead mafia, and only bad mafia would defend their teammate directly (instead of deflecting to other players), the chain reaction after flipping mafia is obvious, so the defenders might be noob or misled townies like in my case.
On the other hand, I think heist and the O.Golden replacement will be screwed once i flip town in case of a lynch. They will have one more kill at their disposal however.
This is all I have to say in my defense, be aware that I will ignore more accusations and just answer them with more reads from scumhunting, who are especially focused on sukis' ties.
For most of day 1, he has had one target, and that is Vivix.
His first accusation against him contained the following points: a perceived contradiction, and his views/defense of sciberbia.
This is the contradiction. Vivix says he sees the reason behind sciberbia's no-lynch argument, but still prefers to lynch. Seeing the logic and worthyness of considering of an idea, but still coming down on the other side of it is not a contradiction, provided you supply the reasons for doing so. Vivix does; he says he still wants to lynch to get rid of lurkers right off the bat or act on a strong scum read, and get lynch information earlier rather than later.
His views and defense on sciberbia have been covered a lot, so I'll just say one thing about this. Vivix has been steadfast in his convictions consistently. At the time, the sample size was small and no pattern had developed yet, so the suspicion is warranted. As the game goes on however, nobody should be surprised that Vivix was so sure on his first town read. He is consistently steadfast in all of his opinions.
Moving on. He posts some filler before addressing Vivix again. The filler is basically asking Eishi_Ki to clarify his thoughts on Vivix, asks Vivix to post more, and pressures the lurkers. Nothing really scummy here, he is just doing due diligence on his case.
His second address to Vivix has one repeated point and one new one: Vivix' sure read on sciberbia, and his hasty vote on Eishi_Ki. His read on sciberbia I've talked about already...his vote on Eishi_Ki represented his first scum hunting target. He went after him full force and voted. Again, these are consistent with Vivix' aggressive play. He defends a town read aggressively, and pursues a scum read aggressively.
Next he addresses someone new, and its Unforgiven. He chimes in with his thoughts, which is fine. It's the current subject matter. He uses a lot of words to say that he agrees on the suspicions, but will reserve judgement. It's a very safe stance. He follows this up with further safe pressure on the lurkers.
His third address to Vivix. He again uses a lot of words to say basically: I don't agree that your high activity and extremeness makes you absolutely town, and you may be doing it to obscure the scummy things you do. This is trumped up WIFOM + Show Spoiler +
Vivix as scum thinks, I'll be careful but still contribute. But wait! That is what they are expecting! I'll be aggressive to throw them off my trail. But wait, maybe they are expecting me to expect that so I'll be more careful. But wait! etc etc
There's a reason constant aggression reads as town: because in more cases than not, it is town.
His fourth address to Vivix. He harps again on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia. He keeps driving this point, and damns him for finding a townie and not hunting scum. Except....Vivix has been hunting his top scum read: Eishi_Ki. This just makes no sense. Vivix scum hunt was aggressive and obvious. There is no excuse for ignoring it in this context.
You know who else kept harping on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia? Suki
Something else Suki did was to drop his main suspicion in favor of another target. Heist does this too, stating that he is giving Vivix the benefit of the doubt, and then votes for a lurker. Not the lurker that has had the most buzz going for a policy lynch, but Superouman. Essentially a wasted vote.
In summary: -Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak point -his fast read and defense of sciberbia -WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse -spending time confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is -Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and 'wait and see' on Unforgiven -Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt' -votes for a lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet
This is shortly after Ange shows up. She takes the time to defend herself some and promises a scum read soon. While she is away doing that, sciberbia makes a post trying to organize everyone onto one person, and the votes on Ange go to 6 when I vote.
Ange comes back and posts her read on Suki. It is solid, compelling, and, as we know now, dead on. She votes Suki right away, giving him 3 votes. Xatalos responds that he likes her contribution, and sciberbia comes back trying to illustrate how lynching suki is the best option for us as a group based on our stated convictions. Unforgiven chimes in to reinforce his Suki vote. I mention as well that her case is pretty good, and combined with all else, would draw my vote if he was our choice.
The atmosphere at was pretty anti-Suki, and only getting worse. With Ange posting a very solid scum read, and a couple people suggesting she should live. If this goes further, Suki would definitely replace Ange as the consensus choice.
Now Ange pursues Unforgiven, and pretty hard too, dropping a quick FoS. Xatalos follows up with his earlier suspicions and votes for him. This is a shake and bake counter movement to the building case on Suki. While this is going on, Suki draws another vote from Milton. That makes 4.
This is when Heist enters, when Suki is in a lot of danger, and there is a counter-movement swelling. He jumps all over Unforgiven. He went from non-commital on Unforgiven to all out war without any in-between, right at the time when the case was countering Suki's. He flat out yells at Vivix to not vote for Suki. He removes his vote on Superouman citing it as useless, only to place it on another useless case that had the third most votes. The only conceivable use it has is to stop the lynch of Suki.
With 12 minutes left, he switches to Suki once it is clear that he is the consensus choice. This gave us majority on Suki, but Xatalos had already agreed that he would vote to ensure a lynch vs a no-lynch if it came to it, so it was going to happen anyway. What it also does is give him some deniability when Suki flipped scum. Not a lot, but some.
In summary: -swoops in when the pressure on Suki is getting bad -pursues a useless counter-case vigorously against a player who he has been ambivalent about -switches his useless vote from one place to another useless place -was one of the very last to come in to vote for suki
I think he has tied himself pretty strongly to Suki. What do others think about this?
PART 1 "Let's have a look at what he has been doing to hunt scum..."
This part of your argument deals with my accusations on Vivax. If this somehow reflected on my scumminess why didn't you speak up before the events around the lynch, accusing me? Because it doesn't. You simply didn't agree with me. You dedicate quite a bit of your post defending Vivax, but I'll reiterate your take on my points and then show my thought process.
My main point, as you call out, is Vivax's dedicated defense and conviction toward Vivax, which I found highly suspicious and you disregard as a townie being consistently aggressive. You even applaud his consistent aggressiveness as a fundamentally town. However, there is quite a big distinction in aggressiveness defending someone and aggressively following scum reads. Vivax is the former. Finding and trying to insist confirmed townies does NOTHING for the town come lynch time. That is the crux of my argument. He spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch. His one "aggressive" scumread is on Eishi, a poorly argued accusation in which his main point is that it's suspicious that Eishi can't be here near deadline since he lives in Korea. This is hardly compelling evidence. His aggressive behavior that you cite as such a townie behavior. Ask yourselves what has he actually done for the town after all this "aggression"?
The WIFOM is directed right to this quote by Vivax
I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely.
I've already talk about this quote before. If this isn't suspicious, then I don't know what is. I have not been spending time "not hunting scum, and confirming townies" as you put it. My main activities day 1 was actively pursuing Vivax. And just because I disagree with someone else's accusations does NOT mean I have confirmed the accused. I'm simply waiting for more information, i.e Unforgiven and Ange77. My drop on Vivax was because there was simply no momentum that would allow a lynch. I honestly feel like everyone had the one set opinion of him (oh he's so aggressive and consistent, he must be town) that they refused to read anything else in a different light. Frustrating but I agreed to drop it in order to actually have a lynch.
Concerning my vote on Superouman, which you call wasted because he had "no policy buzz as of yet". Yes precisely this. Why didn't he? Why was he so much less suspicious in so many people's eyes than Ange77? Various people had superouman on their suspicions list for essentially the same reason as Ange77. Lurking. Why then was there such massive and quick Ange77 bandwagon with almost no mention of Superouman. It was suspicious to me and next I would argue that you can't waste a vote when there are still hours and hours before the lynch. I was hoping to take the bandwagon off of Ange77, which erupted almost out of nowhere without even waiting for her to respond and place my vote onto the scummier lurker in my eyes.
PART 2 "Events surrounding the lynch"
Your main argument is that I purposefully entered an anti-Suki atmosphere to shift the votes away from him. In fact, I was present throughout the entire time that the Ange77 bandwagon erupted. If I was mafia, I could have sealed the mislynch with my vote. Suki was the next highest candidate and he would have survived. Why didn't I? I was reserving my opinion till after she was allowed a chance to contribute and respond to her defense? I have been doing this all day 1. If I don't have a strong opinion I'll give the accused a chance to defend and contribute: I've done it with Unforgiven, ange77, Superouman. Who was the only one who never showed up, never bothered to help town? Superouman. This was my reasoning for my vote and that was who I gave my vote to. Ange77 survives and finally posts her analysis, giving her a much more town impression in almost everyone's eyes.
You then state that the atmosphere turned distinctly anti-Suki. The only reason you construe the atmosphere as anti-Suki is because literally almost all the active people on at the time were the original votes behind Suki: Sciberbia, Unforgiven_ve, and Ange77 (check pg. 13) while Vivax and Xatalos still remaining unconvinced. At this point, the voting total is Ange77 with 6 votes and Suki with 3. Milton then turns against Suki to make it 4, as you said. At this point I come in. And according to you, it's only because of the atmosphere because you are solely reading my actions trying to construe everything as mafia. You fail to mention what was occurring simultaneously: Unforgiven_ve and his set of really bizarre posts against Ange77. The growing momentum against Suki is a direct result of Ange77 becoming more active and trying to clear herself as town, which is what I've been promoting the entire time.
Unforgiven_ve is the reason I changed my vote. I really suggest you go through his filter and can explain his behavior. It felt off to more than just me: Even you express discomfort at his behavior but ultimately side with a Suki lynch to create a lynch, same as I. You on the other hand don't even attempt to convince us of your "stronger" read.
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Your last few points: I've already given reasoning why a Unforgiven vote was not useless (check my filter after my final vote).
And of course I was last, I wasn't convinced but a NL was worse. What else could happen?
Lastly, there was no guarantee that Suki would have been lynched had I not done so. Xatalos's vote and his assurance to create a lynch comes AFTER I've placed my vote, which was already last minute (look at the timing).
If someone knows someone willing to play shoot me a pm about it. If I can't find a replacement within 48 hours I will have to modkill I'm looking for a replacement myself as well but I'm not really in touch with new guys a lot and I doubt most of the guys with 1 to 3 games are checking the replacement thread
Well, I was wrong about the night kill as well...... But it's too WIFOM to speculate why they shot s0Lstice instead of Ange777 (a more dangerous player? with better reads? fear of the Medic? to cause misleading speculation like that?) so I'm going to just focus on the fact that s0Lstice is now confirmed town (although I had him as a likely town in my list anyway). Here are my thoughts on all players in a summarised fashion - from least suspicious to most suspicious:
s0Lstice
Verdict: confirmed town
Ange777
Initially a lurker, but soon after becoming active she managed to push through the lynch on a (now) confirmed Mafia. This shows that she has both the analytic skills to catch Mafia and unarguably also the willingness to use these skills in practice. I see absolutely zero reason to lynch her at this time.
Verdict: very likely town
sciberbia
Started the game fearlessly by sharing all his thoughts and suggestions. Then proceeded to push Suki, a (now) confirmed Mafia. Committed to the push and didn't hesitate or state vague opinions. I don't see any reason to lynch him either at this point.
Verdict: very likely town
Vivax
Started sharing his thoughts and reads right away with transparency and clarity. Pushed the lurkers very hard to make them post. Overall, strongly townie way to start the game. Responded to pressure with this:
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
I agree with the content of this post: his playstyle is unsuitable for Mafia and would expose him soon enough. However, one could say that his playstyle actually HAS exposed him... Looking at how many are considering lynching him right now. So this defense isn't as good anymore as I thought it was at the time, although I still agree with the idea behind it.
He continues to be aggressive towards lurkers, and strongly defends players like sciberbia and suki. This all reads town to me - although suki turned out to be Mafia, it would be more natural to be vague, slightly defensive or even slightly hostile toward your teammate instead of this strong defense. The problem I see is that he doesn't really post his insights into the suspicions against Suki, but just brushes them off as obviously wrong like this:
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I don't see any pure Mafia agenda behind this, but it doesn't look townie either. Why would he just state that Suki is obviously town without evidence as Mafia? It doesn't really help Suki, but it just makes himself look worse. On the other hand, I don't see why he would do this as town either.
He continues to defend Suki while attacking Ange777 at the same time. This seems like too reckless for a Mafia Vivax, in my opinion, especially since it started looking more and more likely that the Ange777 lynch was not happening and that Suki was the only possible lynch option. Why not just bus Suki to look better, since it was useless to defend Suki at that point? I'm not seeing fear or survival instincts in his play, even though I don't get his reasons for wanting to lynch Ange777 instead of Suki in that situation. Ange777 was clearly being active and helpful, while Suki was nowhere to be seen (or hiding). And his main reason for lynching Ange777 there was... lurking. What?? She stopped lurking hours ago. Lurking was not a valid reason to lynch her anymore.
Then there's this more recent post:
On June 02 2012 07:22 Vivax wrote: I doubt I can change things now that I'm proven dead wrong. No, I'm not dead. There still are lurkers.
I will keep scumhunting and ignore accusations against me day 2 simply because I might not be able to defend myself in the light of this event and I don't want to waste energy on it.
This seems a bit too defeatist for my tastes. Why does he automatically assume that the lynch has to be between himself and lurkers (Superouman or Golden, I guess?). It just feels wrong that he considers himself so "guilty" just for opposing a Mafia lynch. It doesn't fit well with the style of play he started the game with.
I had a strong town read on Vivax during Day 1, but after reading through his filter now, I can't anymore put him as a strong town read. Still, considering his strong early game, I'd be willing to give him another chance.
Verdict: slightly townie
Unforgiven_ve
I'm not going to spend my focus on him right now, since it feels unlikely he would be teamed up with Suki. It's possible they went for a double bus, but the simpler and cleaner explanation is that they just wanted to get each other lynched, which would mean Unforgiven_ve is town. I'll put my suspicions for him on hold unless he does something that makes me reconsider the issue.
Verdict: neutral
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't really committed to anything of his own, instead has quite passively followed the flow of the thread. His only vote so far is for Ange777, the lurker - the safest possible vote target. This could all mean cautious Mafia, but also unsure townie. I definitely want to see something more from him in order to get a solid read.
Verdict: neutral
ShiaoPi
Not much to say about him. Generally I dislike replacements, since they mess up the reads and kind of "reset" suspicions for the player (a very useful fact for Mafia). But I don't really have any solid read on ShiaoPi at the moment. I want to see him start contributing as soon as possible.
Verdict: neutral
Superouman
Certainly the most frustrating player in the game. Hardcore lurking, unhelpful posts, useless voting (without any reasoning)... It's almost impossible to tell if he's Mafia or town. If I was a Vigilante, I would shoot him without a doubt, but since we don't have one in this setup, he can just continue doing whatever he wants. A part of me wants to policy lynch him, but it would probably be counterproductive by slowing down the Mafia hunt and analysis.
Verdict: neutral
Miltonkram
Started by sharing some strong opinions on policy topics. However, policies are pretty much the easiest possible discussion topic for Mafia. Once he started talking about player reads, he's immediately hesitant and indecisive:
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Why would he ask "thoughts town?" before showing his own opinion on the issue (whether sciberbia is Mafia or not)? This just seems incredibly out of place and wary about attracting any negative attention. Then he posts this:
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia
He doesn't even say if sciberbia is Mafia or not! He just says that he "doesn't have the best interests of the town at heart". This is a very vague statement that can mean many things: sciberbia might be Mafia, he might be a misguided townie, he might be... well, anything except an optimally playing townie. This accusation is so vague and non-committing that there is basically no risk in saying it. Next up is this:
On May 31 2012 16:13 Miltonkram wrote: Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
This shows perfectly how vague and non-committing his "case" was in the first place. Miltonkram backs off immediately after seeing some sort of a non-suspicious response. He even apologizes at the end of his post for no reason. Why would he apologize for (softly) accusing someone if he thought the accusation had any merit in the first place?
After closely examining Miltonkram's filter up to this point I started to feel like I had just nailed a Mafia, but his later posts start to be more decisive and logical overall. While reading his later posts, I don't get the same suspicious feeling as from his early posts. It's possible he was coached in the MafiaQT on how to post more convincingly, or then he genuinely started to improve with his reads and style of expressing himself. I'll have to see more from him to make a decision.
Verdict: neutral
Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
1) not hit the same person that the medic chooses to save 2) hit blues 3) hit townies that everyone has a strong town-read on 4) hit good townies 5) hit townies that are on the right track
How does the choice of s0lstice fit in with these objectives? + Show Spoiler +
1) was not a likely medic save in my opinion 2) was not especially likely to be blue 3) I'd estimate him at #3 least likely to ever be lynched 4) I think s0lstice demonstrated he was a pretty good townie 5) We should look at his filter
Overall, I think s0lstice was a pretty smart hit and had good reason to die regardless of how good his reads were. So I don't want to put too much weight on them. However, it seems foolish not to at least look at his filter.
I don't think that these reads are that relevant because they were popular opinions - He didn't want to lynch ange - He pretty strongly read me as town - He wasn't a big fan of unforgiven
Some of his more controversial reads: 1) His very strong accusation of heist 2) He defended cattivik quite strongly 3) Was rather suspicious of miltonkram
You may call it WIFOM, but I feel that s0lstice wouldn't have died if too many of his reads were wrong. If you're willing to assume he was right on at least two of three, you can conclude that Cattivik is town. Now, this is no small assumption, but I think it's slight evidence in Cattivik's favor. It also makes me slightly more suspicious of miltonkram. It doesn't really change my opinion on heist because that one seems like pure WIFOM.
It's obviously nothing definitive, but I think we'll be able to make more sense of this kill once we see a few more flips, so don't forget about it.
Well this analysis admittedly didn't turn out to be as fruitful as I had expected but I still think it's worth posting. RIP s0Lstice.
I'd honestly be really surprised if heist isn't mafia. Read s0lstice's case on him - it's pretty good. I've read through heist's filter and found a lot of stuff that seems scummy to me. I'm just going to highlight some previous points I find particulary damning as well as add a couple of pieces of evidence.
Circumstancial evidence surrounding suki's first post + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote: Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote: Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...
Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later:
On May 31 2012 12:47 heist wrote: You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones.
So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened:
suki: hi guys. im roleblocker. sorry im late heist: suki you should make a post b4 you get accused of lurking *suki makes post*
This takes 9 minutes: suki: okay I just made a pretty big first post *heist skims it* heist: why do you make such a big deal out of that vote? suki: what do you mean? heist: you realize he'll probably just unvote right? suki: oh shit. you can unvote? heist: yea. It's ok: you're just noob. nobody will care. suki: well should i correct myself? heist: Just ask if you can unvote. Then I'll answer it.
This takes 4 minutes: suki: k. just did heist: ok I answered it. Nobody will ever suspect anything.
Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below.
On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I am not completely convinced about Suki...
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote: Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch.
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
On June 02 2012 06:37 heist wrote: I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
On June 02 2012 06:43 heist wrote: BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent.
On June 02 2012 06:55 heist wrote: I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now.
In summary - he is first "not completely convinced" - now suki reads town to him - now it looks like vivax is bussing suki - now he's not very confident in a suki lynch - he's much more convinced ange is town than suki - he didn't think suki is mafia
the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me.
Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy.
I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense.
On June 03 2012 09:53 heist wrote: That is the crux of my argument. He (Vivax) spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch.
Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town".
If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't.
If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie.
I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie.
Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis.
Does anyone actually think heist is townie? I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie?
On June 03 2012 16:03 sciberbia wrote: This will be my post about heist
I'd honestly be really surprised if heist isn't mafia. Read s0lstice's case on him - it's pretty good. I've read through heist's filter and found a lot of stuff that seems scummy to me. I'm just going to highlight some previous points I find particulary damning as well as add a couple of pieces of evidence.
1. Circumstancial evidence surrounding suki's first post + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote: Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote: Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...
Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later:
On May 31 2012 12:47 heist wrote: You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones.
So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened:
suki: hi guys. im roleblocker. sorry im late heist: suki you should make a post b4 you get accused of lurking *suki makes post*
This takes 9 minutes: suki: okay I just made a pretty big first post *heist skims it* heist: why do you make such a big deal out of that vote? suki: what do you mean? heist: you realize he'll probably just unvote right? suki: oh shit. you can unvote? heist: yea. It's ok: you're just noob. nobody will care. suki: well should i correct myself? heist: Just ask if you can unvote. Then I'll answer it.
This takes 4 minutes: suki: k. just did heist: ok I answered it. Nobody will ever suspect anything.
Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below.
On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I am not completely convinced about Suki...
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote: Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch.
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
On June 02 2012 06:37 heist wrote: I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
On June 02 2012 06:43 heist wrote: BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent.
On June 02 2012 06:55 heist wrote: I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now.
In summary - he is first "not completely convinced" - now suki reads town to him - now it looks like vivax is bussing suki - now he's not very confident in a suki lynch - he's much more convinced ange is town than suki - he didn't think suki is mafia
the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me.
Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy.
I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense.
On June 03 2012 09:53 heist wrote: That is the crux of my argument. He (Vivax) spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch.
Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town".
If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't.
If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie.
I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie.
Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis.
Does anyone actually think heist is townie? I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie?
##Vote heist
It's looking more and more like I'm going to be spending day 2 defending myself with no one acknowledging anything I've written.
Let's go through this shall we? I've numbered your points:
1. Suki doesn't realize you can change your vote. I correct his mistake. And that's your first point? Are you serious? Did you really just make up an entire conversation out of nowhere. Why would I reply to him in thread if I "corrected him in mafia QT" as you claim I did? If Suki doesn't respond, that's not my problem. I don't control what he's doing. Pure pure speculation.
2. When I said I'm not completely convinced about Suki, you completely misinterpreted it. I was referring to the fact I was not convinced to the accusation against him MEANING that my opinion of him was town, not mafia. So yes, Suki reads town (me staying consistent). I was never, never convinced in the Suki lynch. The dilemma for me was that both Ange77 and Suki seemed town to me. Why did I ultimately side with Ange77? because after her recent set of posts, she was leaving me a pretty big impression of town while Suki was absent the entire lynch.
I looked back at the Cattivik's bussing comment. I was referring to the fact that I think Cattivik is mafia (and I have been for pretty much all D1) and that's why I used the word "bussing".
3. Great. Suki didn't comment on me. What do you want me to say? This is completely outside of my control. I can't really say anything about this and you know it. Non point.
4. I don't think I'm completely comprehending what you are trying to say here. Too many what ifs. How are you construing my argument so that I believe Vivax is a bad townie? I DO think Vivax is mafia and I've been trying to make my case all game.
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
@heist Perhaps I should have been more clear. The points in my post are not the only things I find suspicious about your filter. I'm just not going to repeat and rehash a lot of the stuff s0Lstice said earlier. I just added 3 new pieces of circumstantial evidence as well as emphasized a part of everyone else's arguments that I find particularly damning.
Of course it's possible that you are townie. I'm not going to be able to definitively prove to you that you must be mafia. Honestly, if I am wrong about you, which I concede is a possibility, you've been the victim of an extremely unlucky set of circumstances (such as not knowing the meaning of "bussing"). What's more likely than an unlikely set of circumstances? That you are mafia. This is why I am voting you.
Arguing with somebody's defense usually isn't very productive because you'll never be able to convince them that they're mafia (obviously). Nevertheless, I feel obliged to explain my points because you seem rather ticked off about them.
1. Yes I agree it's pure speculation. But mafia is all about speculation. I speculated that suki was corrected by a fellow mafia in the mafia QT. This seems rather likely to me now, especially considering that suki didn't acknowledge my question. You seem to be a likely candidate for the person that corrected him, given that you were online at the time, and posting in the thread 4 minutes later. So, this is some circumstantial evidence for you being mafia.
2. To me, "not completely convinced" by an argument says that you think there is some credence to it, but you're not completely sure. Otherwise you would just say "not convinced" or even say it's a bad argument. Saying "not completely convinced" is the sort of wishy/washy thing typical of scum players trying to defend their buddies.
The standard definition of bussing is a mafia accusing another mafia. So by saying that you think cattivik is bussing suki, you were saying that you thought both were scum. I suppose it's possible that you actually don't know the definition, but this has to be counted as evidence against you.
3. Scum, especially newbie scum, tend not to address their scumbuddies as much as would be natural. It's further (admittedly not the best) evidence against you. I understand it's frustrating that you can't actually say anything to explain his lack of posts concerning you, but this doesn't mean it's not evidence.
4. In reference to Vivax, you said that I am "someone who he can't possibly know is town." If Vivax were mafia, he would know that I am town. So you inadvertently implied that Vivax is townie. I admit it's a bit nit-picky but I could see why a mafia heist would likely make that mistake. Of course, it is possible that a town heist would also make that mistake, but it's just another piece of evidence, not the entire basis of my argument. I probably did not explain this point very well and I'm interested to see if anyone agrees with me on it.
I'm going to sleep. Won't be posting for at least 8 hours.
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
On June 04 2012 02:03 ShiaoPi wrote: On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
Just an update: I found someone who is willing to play but he's already playing in another game. If I don't get someone else willing to play I will replace Ange777 with him instead of modkilling at 22:30 GMT (+00:00). That should be exactly 24 hours short of the voting deadline and should be sufficient time given the situation. If I get a pm from someone else willing to play I will give priority to people not in a game, that's why I'm waiting a little right now
Been spending a lot of time looking through the filters. The way I see it there are three people who look really bad for their voting patterns at the end of D1, heist, Vivax and Xatalos. Heist and Vivax have been attacking each other pretty mercilessly, but I don't think we've spent enough time analyzing Xatalos's play. If you look through his filter he does a great job of "contributing" while taking soft stances and bandwagoning.
I'm putting together a larger case against him, but it's going to take me a little bit.
Thanks for playing Ange777! Despite being inactive most of D1, you really came back and contributed later on. Hopefully I'll get to play more games with you in the future.
Hello all. I'll be replacing ange777, and was following along somewhat so I can hopefully be helpful relatively quickly. Let me reread things once or twice, and I'll get some comments out tonight or tomorrow (EST) so that I'm not deadweight during this day.
Here is my brief opinion on several players. heist: everything points to him being mafia. my hands-down top choice for today vivax: I'm going to review his case but I still think he's probably town Xatalos: not interested in lynching him today miltonkram: I've been conflicted about him all game long.. still not sure what to think golden/shiaopi: Suspicious. Did nobody notice golden's really scummy defense of suki after my initial accusation?
Realistically, who are we going to lynch today? It looks like it will be between heist and vivax. I think heist is the far better choice. I'll review both cases and post more of my reasoning.
welcome aboard austinmcc! Nice to see yet another familiar face
While we are discussing our lynchtarget come the next deadline we obviously have vivax/heist/Xatalos on the list right now. I would also consider our resident lurkers eishi and superouman. Both have not contributed much yet and superouman has disappeared completely after his wtf-vote on sciberbia...
Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post.
First post:
Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point.
The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on.
3rd post:
I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting.
4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it.
5th post:
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.
I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues.
D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax.
Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy.
Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
@ Sciberbia I agree with your advice on the way our (possible) blue players should play. We should be wary of any claims however. If we're in the setup without blues we won't have a counter-claim if scum should try to claim. See you guys later!
My current scumreads are the triple of suki, eishi/Xatalos and Vivax.
Let's start of with an overview of suki's filter, who is confirmed scum:
I already pointed out that he soft-defends eishi, which coupled with his absence makes me suspicious of him. He also went against vivax a bit before dropping it and strongly pushed on unforgiven, while keeping his suspicions on Milton.
This is in summary his interactions with the thread.
In my mind (as vivax reads as a possible scum) it involves a slight bus on vivax and some bits of taking off pressure of eishi. Coupling it with pushing the two people who were most in doubt (besides lurkers) at the beginning of day 1.
If you now take a look at vivax's filter, I encourage you all to take a good look on Ange's case against him. There are a lot of good points in there and I'll add some more (while repeating others) in order to:
-Weirdness of seeing sciberbia as confirmed town, simply by virtue of posting first -Flawed logic in regards of scum-attributes (activity=town, lurking=scum). Although there is some merit to it he takes it to ridiculous extremes and keeps mentioning it. -The entire all-out-defense of suki screams scum in regards of the flip. But what is even weirder is his last votepost. He switches from ange to suki, although he is 100% sure that suki is town. Can anyone explain that logic to me? If you claim to have a sure read, stick with it. It just makes him look ridiculously bad, why go to such lengths to defend him and then just drop it, when you see that he will get lynched. Reads to me as trying to distance yourself last minute from your scumbuddy. -Vivax's actions since the lynch was to state, that he will ignore any accusations in regards of his defense of suki and some bandwagoning on heist after solstice stated his suspicions. Oh and he also calls out a lurker (me in that case), who just got replaced. Pretty safe bet don't you think? Also his refusal to explain himself is outright retarded. As a townie why wouldn't I try to explain myself? Even his direct defense post to ange's case is weird: + Show Spoiler +
I think Vivax is scum because: - His best argument in hunting scum has repeatedly been lurking=scum, active=town. Very flawed logic! Maybe to show that by his own standard and his own high activity he should be considered town? - He only made "safe" cases until now. Case against Eishi was easy to start, so was his case against me and now heist, Golden/ShiaoPi - When arguing with him about Suki, he never once talked about the content of Suki's post but always emphasized that my lurking play hurt town and therefore I should be lynched - Even without once explaining his Suki town read he defended Suki till the end and only switched when there was no chance of getting me lynched - Odd posts implying that one should not lynch him as he is townie (without being in danger), odd post of claiming I can't flip blue, a lot of flawed logic (two mafia can't vote each other), ....
I know that right now it might look like I am tunneling Vivax but he IS my top scum read. There might be a 1% chance of him playing an awful awful town play but I just can't see it. If Vivax you seriously want to convince me of you being town, then please start defending yourself.
(Good chance I missed something in my post as I was really crammed for time when typing this! Please bear that in mind and read Vivax' filter yourself!)
Unforgiven's play still doesn't strike me as townie even though he sided with the right vote .... don't know what to do with that right now.
And please don't forget the lurkers!
Argument 1: Yes, I should have totally ignored the lurkers and let them lurk to not force them to post something which might give us reads on them, that's an awesome idea for early game town. The lurker lynching policy is general consensus here, as you might have noticed before your arrival. Now that pretty much everyone has posted something, you know that it's cause there are people favoring lurker lynches.
Argument 2: Case against Eishi was the least supported case there has been so far, the only one stirring distrust against him was suki initially, but then he told me to put him and sciberbia aside to talk about other players. Suki kept pushing cases against me more heavily than against Eishi_Ki. The case against you wasn't safe either. There are enough inconsistencies in your play, one of them being you suspecting unforgiven but supporting his case (I think Milton disagreed and mentioned that it might have been bussing by unforgiven_ve, but so early?No way.
you said I should look at the times of the posts, I did that: + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:25 Ange777 wrote:
What exactly is your so-called scumtell? That I side with Unforgiven on the case against Suki? If you read correctly, I changed my opinion on Unforgiven after his recent posts and only after my case on Suki.
I don't understand the problem.
On June 02 2012 06:19 Ange777 wrote: I would consolidate on a Unforgiven lynch as I have posted my concerns about his recent play. Still I believe Suki to be more scummy.
On June 02 2012 06:16 Ange777 wrote: Would you mind explaining who is deflecting attention away from me? I think I made a pretty good case and took a clear stance in my gameplay, that is why people are switching their votes off of me and start voting Suki or Unforgiven. Yes, Suki was active for a far longer way than me but activity alone should not be a reason to not suspect someone or not lynch someone.
You never discharged unforgiven, and that's where I saw the lie, especially given the close posting times contradicting themselves so clearly.
Argument 3: Indeed, I wanted to lynch you for the sudden appearance throwing FoS at active townies after the votes on you started, and just then. You had the worst possible timing to appear, by your own choice to focus on the other game, you acknowledged the points that the behavior was bad for the town, so I don't see how the lynching shouldn't have been justified.
Argument 4: What's suspicious about switching when I'm trying by all means to get a day1 lynch? I was last to vote before heist. This is an argument like argument 1, every townie here would have voted for suki to get the day 1 lynch, Eishi was afk, so was Golden, and suki just remained silent while I was unfortunately defending him already.
tl dr ;
At the moment you are blind to the scumreads that suki's death offers. You didn't even adress the two posts I've made about heists and golden based on sukis' stances in connection with them, and that together with the guy who just got killed.
S0lstice was ready to push the case along with me, and he's the least suspected townie here. Why should I kill the guy who's gonna support me in the case on heist and formerly Golden, the case I'm pushing with strong reads?
After a mafias' death, you first analyze their filter, then you might start attacking those who defended the dead mafia, and only bad mafia would defend their teammate directly (instead of deflecting to other players), the chain reaction after flipping mafia is obvious, so the defenders might be noob or misled townies like in my case.
On the other hand, I think heist and the O.Golden replacement will be screwed once i flip town in case of a lynch. They will have one more kill at their disposal however.
This is all I have to say in my defense, be aware that I will ignore more accusations and just answer them with more reads from scumhunting, who are especially focused on sukis' ties.
In his first paragraph he completely disregards the argument of ange about his scumhunting criteria and just goes on about lurker policy.
In his 2nd he keeps up his weird logic of townies not being able to follow more than one suspicion and again does not answer to the accusation directly.
3rd paragraph is the same thing, he appears to be defending but in the end he ignored the accusation (defending suki that heavily without being able to show, where he got his townread from).
This pattern continues before he finishes his defense up with a ton of WIFOM about mafia motivations.
Does this really look like a solid defense to you (all the people with townreads on Vivax) ?
Regarding my suspicions of eishi. It mainly stems from suki's filter and his lack of posts until now, therefore I cannot be sure about my read on him. The main points would be the interactions between him, suki and vivax. They had some slight suspicions going against each other with rather weak arguments, so it could be concluded that there might have been bussing involved. I would love to see some more posts from him though. If eishi is not scum I would tend to read Xatalos as third scumteammember now.
Going through his filter there were a lot of "moderating" posts, which make him look as if he is contributing but do not have a lot of content to be honest, e.g. + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
Just before lynch on Day 1 as ange pops back into the thread he gets a heavy townvibe from her but does not vote for suki, seeing him as a townie (without explicitly stating why) and pressures hard for a lynch on unforgiven. He is actually the first to vote on unforgiven after ange dropped the FOS. His votechange was also after heist's which was number 7 to bring on the hammer (arguably the posts were 1 minute apart but I would believe it to be natural to keep hitting that F5 button so close to lynch). Also this post post-lynch is weird to me, look at the bolded part:
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.
Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He disregards the fact that he was also one of the opponent against the suki-lynch (besides the, wow I was wrong earlier) and goes on to attack heist. Also his support for the case against heist seems really weak to me. He adds a post about vivax's voteswitch as highly suspicious, which in fact it is not as vivax was simply defying logic in his vote. After heist defends himself from that argument all Xatalos has to fall back on his suspicions is the case of solstice. Bandwagoning? Maybe, conclusively said Xatalos has not contributed much and his behaviour surrounding the lynch and his follow up play right now have been off ( to me at least) and if eishi starts contributing and convincing me that he is town-aligned Xatalos is for sure number 2 on my list right after Vivax.
I think there is an excellent chance heist is mafia and I'm still convinced he is our best lynch today. But with miltonkram and shiaopi preferring vivax, and even xatalos now having his doubts, it looks like we will once again have a hard time reaching a consensus. We still need to hear from unforgiven, austinmcc, superouman, and eishi_ki.
I'm going to try to convince you guys to vote for heist. In this post, I'm going to list evidence against heist, in approximate order from most substancial to least substancial. I'm going to repeat myself/s0Lstice a bit.
I highlighted this in my last post. Whereas Xatalos and (to a lesser extent) Vivax took a consistent stance in their defense of suki, heist was hesitant to committ to defending suki, and then claims that vivax is bussing suki.
Notice how he is kind of all over the place 1) "I am not completely convinced about suki" 2) "Suki reads town to me" 3) "Now it just looks like you (Vivax) are bussing (Suki)" 4) "Not very confident in a suki lynch" 5) "I don't think suki is mafia"
I have no problem with comments 2 or 5. They are consistent and say that heist has a town read on suki. But comments 1 and 4 are scummy to me. He's trying to dissuade us from voting suki, but is vague about his opinion with the modifiers on "convinced" and "confident". And comment 3 is implying that heist thinks suki has a good chance of being mafia.
willingness to throw suspicion on anyone but suki + Show Spoiler +
suki was the only person heist was actually defensive of leading up to the lynch: vivax: heist accuses strongly and threatens to vote. Doesn't because he realizes a lynch on vivax isn't going to happen superouman: heist tries to raise suspicion on superouman and votes him unforgiven: jumps on unforgiven about an hour and a half before the deadline and pushes to get him lynched ange777: now heist didn't actually accuse ange, but he didn't really try to convince people not to vote her. He doesn't actually defend her until an hour before the deadline, when it was obvious she was not going to be lynched. While true that he didn't jump on the bandwaggon, this is probably just because he was hoping she'd get lynched without his support, making him look more townie. One known scum (suki) already jumped on her bandwaggon.
I'm willing to excuse a bad read on suki, but not if suki is the only person he's defensive of. Townies should have some town-reads that they are willing to fight for.
Compare this to some people I think are town.
Personally, I was defensive of cattivik, unforgiven, and superouman. I also played a part in slowing the bandwagon on ange.
Ange was at first defensive on unforgiven, then FOS'd him. She also wasn't a fan of vivax, but she did defend superouman and herself.
Xatalos made a bad read on suki, but he was at least willing to defend other players that he thought were town. He retracted his suspicions on unforgiven, only later reverting to unforgiven when it was clear that it was between unforgiven and suki. He was also slightly defensive of superouman and was willing to back off ange.
Heist's scumhunting is what I'd expect mafia "scumhunting" to look like.
It's usually easiest for mafia to attack players that make controversial/confusing townie plays. Heist did this with gusto thrice - on Vivax, superouman., and unforgiven Pretty easy people to attack and indeed were all popular objects of criticism. Heist harped on superouman's wtf-vote twice. It's something very easy to be critical of, but I think most of us read this as disinterested townie - not mafia.
Even on these three, he doesn't commit to attacking them. In his first post on Vivax, he calls Vivax's post "borderline scummy". He also says superouman is "rapidly rising in his suspicions." And early on, he was "not really convinced on unforgiven".
This talk on unforgiven is especially suspicious + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: @Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
He basically says that a good argument could be made for Unforgiven being scummy, but doesn't committ himself to it.
Again, this is all what I'd expect from a mafia trying to "scumhunt".
What really sucks for mafia? When active townies begin to trust each other. Mafia would like to prevent active townies from being trusted by everyone. Suki and heist both harped on how I couldn't be a confirmed townie.
Most people took the following stance: "I'm pretty sure sciberbia is town. Still, he's not a confirmed townie."
Heist only had a "mostly town" reading of me, and spent a lot of time detailing how I could be a mafia and shouldn't be a "confirmed townie". He even suggested the possibility that both me and cattivik were mafia. Maybe I'm biased, but it seems to me that heist and suki were less willing than everyone else to believe that I am town. It's another example of heist not willing to be defensive of anybody (except suki). Typical mafia behavior
The NK of s0Lstice makes a lot of sense if heist is mafia and vivax is not. Doesn't make so much sense if cattivik is mafia and vivax is not.
Heist looks much scummier than either Vivax or Xatalos to me, mostly because of the first two points. I'll probably make a small post explaining why I still think Vivax is townie.
Actually, I'm really tired and going to sleep. Basically, I agree that Vivax's play is strange. However, it is strange whether or not he is mafia. You'd have to convince me it is strange scummy play rather than strange townie play and I remain unconvinced. I was hoping to be able to elaborate more, but I'm quite busy tomorrow and may not get the chance. Please read over all the material on heist and you will hopefully come to the same conclusion that I have. Night all.
Sup guys, sorry for the lack of activeness lately, i've been very busy...i really like the activity from sometownies, like i said my primary read is heist, nothing weird happened but i do readed a couple of great things you guys posted here.
it's 2am here and i just got home, tomorrow morning i will try to point a few things, it's gonna be hard for me to get in here but i'll try, but just in case
It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
I also noticed that Miltonkram started placing doubt on me after I called him out. Not necessarily a Mafia reaction, since anyone would feel threatened by negative attention, but something to keep in mind. Thinking a bit selfishly, though, this slight doubt on me isn't only a bad thing. It means I'm less likely to be shot, so I must thank you for that, Miltonkram.
On June 04 2012 08:47 Miltonkram wrote: Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post.
On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier.
So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good.
Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything.
s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later.
Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia.
I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate.
Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die.
If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest.
Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia).
As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already.
In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on.
I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote: Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos
I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell?
I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active.
@Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions.
Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all.
It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting.
4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it.
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.
I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues.
D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax.
Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy.
Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
The only somewhat decent point I see in this post is that... I thought Suki was town, and acted accordingly. While it places doubt on my reading skills, it's not a solid piece of evidence regarding my alignment. s0Lstice thought Suki was town as well, and he obviously wasn't Mafia. Vivax and Heist also thought he was town, and while one of them very well might be Mafia, it'd be pretty incredible if they were both Mafia (as the two realistic options for the Day 2 lynch...). That means there were at least two town players with a good town read on Suki, and almost certainly at least three town players. I think Mafia would be far more likely to bus their teammate once the lynch starts looking invevitable (just like you actually did, Miltonkram, right after the bandwagon on Suki had reached the critical mass!) than to recklessly expose themselves to scrutiny - with only a very slim chance of achieving anything. In my eyes, it's very risky for Mafia without almost any benefit. Of course it's possible for Mafia to make suboptimal plays (risking everything for nothing), as Vivax defended Suki, and his play hasn't been very optimal anyway, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made such a big mistake in his play.
Your other points are something like "this is a pro-town / ballsy / unsuspicious thing to do, but maybe it's all fake and hiding behind townieness?". Everything is possible, but if something looks townie, the first thing to do shouldn't be to assume it's all fake (unless you have a severe case of confirmation bias, which seems to be the case). By following your logic, we should be pushing to lynch players like Ange777 and sciberbia as well, even though their actions read town. This is just bad / Mafia logic, not much more to say about that.
If you think it's suspicious that I "bandwagoned" on s0Lstice's case for Heist, you should go reread the definition of bandwagoning. It means to go along with the general opinion. I was the only one really pushing for Heist after s0Lstice died, besides sciberbia who also tried to make it the lynch for today. Most of the players were in favor of lynching Vivax after Suki flipped Mafia. That's what I'd call bandwagoning: just sheeping Ange777, the highest town read. You're much more guilty of "bandwagoning" than me at this point, considering that you just voted for a harmless lurker first, then Suki (the general opinion), then apparently now Vivax (the general opinion). I have yet to see you doing anything else than bandwagoning (except voting for Ange777 - the safest possible option to vote for other than just bandwagoning the general opinion...).
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
@ Xatalos I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
and I responded to suki here.
---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler +
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler +
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it.
If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote: Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
On June 04 2012 20:46 Miltonkram wrote: @ Xatalos I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler +
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler +
@Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.
has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it.
If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
Hmm. It's easy to claim something was just "humor" afterwards, but if people don't see it as humor at the time, it's either A) bad humor B) not actually humor, but hidden as humor to cover up a mistake. I can see some kind of a (bad) townie logic in these posts, but the stronger alternative is that it was a Mafia play covered up as humor afterwards. In any case, the possibility of bad townie logic is better than no possibility of any townie logic, so this isn't a huge reason to lynch for...
Okay, so you have huge time limitations. The problem I have is that when you actually HAVE been online, you haven't been a contributive force in the discussion. You've just blended in and bandwagoned whenever possible (Suki after reaching a critical mass, Vivax after reaching a critical mass). You also made a safe vote for a lurker on Day 1, then placed some vague suspicions on me today after I called you out. None of this looks good for you.
Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself.
On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote: Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Let's look at it this way. Player A thinks player B is Mafia and player C is town. Even so, player A assumes that player C is Mafia while accusing player B! This contradiction is what got my attention. Still, I agree now that it's not good enough to lynch for. It's possible that he just disregarded player C's alignment completely and thought about player B's alignment in isolation, so that his vote for player C (after already reaching a critical amount of votes) was seen as a possible bus attempt (even though player C was a town read for him, he was still considering the possibility of player B bussing player C).
I'm pretty sure Xatalos is townie, simply cause he adresses suki, heist and O.Golden_ne in the last part you've quoted. I know I'm being stubborn again on my suspicions, but face it:
suki never tried to rise attention towards heist, he never adressed him directly, same goes for O.Golden_ne. In his filter, if you search for the word heist, you will find it once in a part where he tries to make Eishi_Ki look suspicious based on heist's and O.Golden_ne's attacks on me, cause that makes Eishi_Ki looks bandwagon-y, which I thought too, frankly. Look for O.Golden_ne, you will get to suki's first post, where he suspects sciberbia and milton, who i both read as townie. That's it, they kept the activity between each other to a minimum, but suki pretty much adresses everyone else directly, except for the two. If that's not a safe scumtell, I don't know.
@ Xatalos
No, I didn't give up on my defense, I've already written it down, and my best defense atm is good offense/scumhunting. If you really look at your posts and then go through mine, you will find my defense anyway, I'm just tired of repeating it over and over when people ignore points I've already made, it's a waste of time. Also, look at suki's first post concerning miltonkram and you'll know that it's nonsense to think miltonkram might not be town.
To me, it looks like you're too focused on the last posts and making the same mistake as Ange777. There are so many early posts from a confirmed mafia which hold so much more information, yet you prefer to look in a stage where every post is hard to contextualize. This is a point I've been making the entire time, and I would bet that everyone would agree on the logic. It's choosing the safe over the unsafe method, which you are not doing since you even suspect miltonkram when suki's first post disproves him being mafia.
And ShiaoPi doesn't even consider heist being mafia, wtf? There's so much evidence, you simply ignore it to push a case against me? Also, i prefer to not go through your offensive posts. Calling someone stupid and retarded isn't a good way to make reads, but I think the host might remind you of that at some point.
I'm pretty sure Xatalos is townie, simply cause he adresses suki, heist and O.Golden_ne in the last part you've quoted. I know I'm being stubborn again on my suspicions, but face it:
suki never tried to rise attention towards heist, he never adressed him directly, same goes for O.Golden_ne. In his filter, if you search for the word heist, you will find it once in a part where he tries to make Eishi_Ki look suspicious based on heist's and O.Golden_ne's attacks on me, cause that makes Eishi_Ki looks bandwagon-y, which I thought too, frankly. Look for O.Golden_ne, you will get to suki's first post, where he suspects sciberbia and milton, who i both read as townie. That's it, they kept the activity between each other to a minimum, but suki pretty much adresses everyone else directly, except for the two. If that's not a safe scumtell, I don't know.
@ Xatalos
No, I didn't give up on my defense, I've already written it down, and my best defense atm is good offense/scumhunting. If you really look at your posts and then go through mine, you will find my defense anyway, I'm just tired of repeating it over and over when people ignore points I've already made, it's a waste of time. Also, look at suki's first post concerning miltonkram and you'll know that it's nonsense to think miltonkram might not be town.
To me, it looks like you're too focused on the last posts and making the same mistake as Ange777. There are so many early posts from a confirmed mafia which hold so much more information, yet you prefer to look in a stage where every post is hard to contextualize. This is a point I've been making the entire time, and I would bet that everyone would agree on the logic. It's choosing the safe over the unsafe method, which you are not doing since you even suspect miltonkram when suki's first post disproves him being mafia.
And ShiaoPi doesn't even consider heist being mafia, wtf? There's so much evidence, you simply ignore it to push a case against me? Also, i prefer to not go through your offensive posts. Calling someone stupid and retarded isn't a good way to make reads, but I think the host might remind you of that at some point.
My list of scum remains the same: heist, ShiaoPi
##Vote heist
I stated my reasons for my townread on heist, I also adressed all the cases against him and they simply do not convince me, heist's actions can also be explained by townmotivation, something which I am severely doubting from your side. Just for the record I was calling your logic retarded/stupid not you, if you take offense from that I apologize, but in those phrases you can find my not-understanding of your viewpoint.
Furthermore I have stated already that my cases have been based mostly from suki's filter. Whom he accused, whom he defended. It is much more telling than a fact of no-interaction in my opinion. And again you just disregard critique of you completely, if you would take your time to really write up a solid defense I might be inclined to believe you but your squirming under pressure just screams scum to me. My vote stays.
On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote: Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Vivax's suspicious behaviour through his ability to completely change his read and convictions on someone has occurred on multiple occasions now which I have noted and previously commented on. The follow up by him was inconclusive and I feel insubstantial. Check my filter for reference to this.
Anyway, sorry for being mostly AFK, it's finals time and I've been trying to organise and mark the exams blah blah. I'll try and be online as much as I can, but for now, I need to get some rest.
On June 04 2012 22:03 ShiaoPi wrote: EBWOP: Since we were talking about suki's filter, nobody wants to comment on the soft-defense he gave eishi?
Heist did also, I would never let you forget. You can read Vivax's claims against me, but there wasn't a lot to them. It isn't difficult to contribute in a soft defence; it hardly indicates alignment. I realise that suki's lynching and the suspicions on Heist have placed me in a bad light but I can't do anything about who they choose to defend other than say I'm not in league with them. See it how you will.
It's Day2. With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch! A little less than 7 hours left to vote, voting is mandatory! People who haven't voted yet (4): austinmcc, Superouman, heist, Miltonkram
Alright, looks like I'm a lovely replacement for Ange. Lurk around for more than half the day cycle, then finally get active. Now if only it would lead to the same results...
Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me. ##Vote: Vivax
Vivax As long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking at two players that did so. So here are some specifics.
Comments made during the Suki/Ange discussion
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already. Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start. It's a real bad time for controversy.
I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case.
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active.
His stance on Heist
This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote: Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie. If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority. However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
On June 02 2012 07:40 Vivax wrote: Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia.
. Then, towards the end of the night, he's back to suspicious. Which is FINE. We had a lynch, we had solstice die, there's new information there that should make people reconsider reads.
But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL.
I don't like Vivax's indignity or that he focused on this phrasing, because it DOES look like Vivax is swapping over to Suki just to be part of the lynch. Vivax goes from being convinced heist was townie to being suspicious based on that little interaction, and, in my mind, the interaction doesn't support the change in Vivax's reads. I think he was looking for an excuse to get away from his townie read and push heist, who was really the best alternate candidate to push with solstice's death and his defense of suki. To those that interpet the bussing comment as some kind of slip, I strongly disagree. It's not quite a bus, because Vivax isn't pushing Suki for a candidate, but in fact, that's Vivax's entire response - "Your word choice is strange because I wasn't bussing."
Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy?
Fixation on Eishi_Ki
His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind.
That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day.
I've been against Vivax from the beginning and I've seen nothing to change my suspicions. Just want to add my statements to the other bodies of work.
His continued odd statement like these:
If there's a majority the town can get without fear of hitting blue, it's Ange777.
that leave me scratching my head. It feels like he was trying to rush along an Ange77 bandwagon lynch based purely on the fact she was lurking. And when she stops and starts contributing more?
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
And now activity is construed as a scumread. It's conflicting and already shows him putting distance on his Ange77 bandwagon that did not fall through.
You have had only weak reads and joined both bandwagons to create a lynch. You continue to deflect accusations in a poor manner and you will have my vote.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Regarding suki: How is the reasoning odd? Suki posted more, that's all. What made me so suspicious about Ange777 is her timing when she posted something substantial for the first time. Read on.
Ange: Look at Ange's posts before her comeback, she even announced she would contribute and didn't do so until there was a real danger of being lynched cause town was about to lynch the most lurking person in that game. Here she suddenly appeared, saying that we might hit blue as only inital defense, and apologized for the absence saying what kept her busy.
Then I was just pretty sure that it's mafia behavior to be silent all game and just show up when you're about to get killed, throwing accusations at three different players (me, unforgiven and suki). I was fearing that through town's confusion it wouldn't come to a day 1 lynch, so I preferred to stick with my initial target cause I believed it was more likely to get a lynch on Ange777.
It was Xatalos who made the first vote on her, I was third after miltonkram. You are making such a big deal out of the fact that I believed that suki was town, most of the town did (except for Eishi_Ki and unforgiven and later Ange777). She admitted having a bad impact on that game with the sudden return reading scum to me. Town was about to set the vote, and I didn't want to vote for someone I didn't believe to be mafia unless it was the only possible way to get a Day 1 lynch, which I announced from the beginning.
Then heist: Wtf, you mention what you believe without even saying what should be wrong about that scumslip, he says he doesn't believe suki to be mafia and 12 minutes later he contradicts himself by saying it looks like I'm bussing. Also, bad redefinition, my entire response was: 'Your word choice is strange cause it contradicts your official beliefs'. Also, you completely ignore the time of the post, i posted that before s0lstice died, but you say I use that to push after s0lstice's death.
I understand you don't have a good overview of my actions cause you just joined the game, but you should really read everything if you plan on going for such accusations of single players. You will find all kind of suspicious things about other players if you go with the premise that they are guilty and look close enough.
Eishi_Ki: Contributing and boost my filter? You realize I was the first to push the case and barely anyone believed Eishi to be scum? How exactly should that help me as mafia? Taking a hard stance?Going against the grain? None of these helps mafia. Eishi joined in against me after two posts from heist and O.Golden, accusing me for townreading sciberbia too early.
Now that you know that sciberbia is town with very high probability, why should I defend him as mafia? Townreading him actually was against the mafia's interest, as you see with suki's next post doubting my read. Then heist and O.Golden attacked me.
Where I stand: I strongly prefer a lynch of heist to a lynch of vivax. I urge you all to look at the case on heist and consider voting heist if you find him scummier than vivax. I will check back into the thread shortly before the deadline, and I'll change my vote if and only if it is needed to prevent NL. Other than that, I can't really contribute in the next 5 hours. I'll catch up with the thread after the deadline. Again, sorry.
On June 05 2012 01:27 Vivax wrote: Regarding suki: How is the reasoning odd? Suki posted more, that's all. What made me so suspicious about Ange777 is her timing when she posted something substantial for the first time. Read on.
Ange: Look at Ange's posts before her comeback, she even announced she would contribute and didn't do so until there was a real danger of being lynched cause town was about to lynch the most lurking person in that game. Here she suddenly appeared, saying that we might hit blue as only inital defense, and apologized for the absence saying what kept her busy.
Then I was just pretty sure that it's mafia behavior to be silent all game and just show up when you're about to get killed, throwing accusations at three different players (me, unforgiven and suki). I was fearing that through town's confusion it wouldn't come to a day 1 lynch, so I preferred to stick with my initial target cause I believed it was more likely to get a lynch on Ange777.
It was Xatalos who made the first vote on her, I was third after miltonkram. You are making such a big deal out of the fact that I believed that suki was town, most of the town did (except for Eishi_Ki and unforgiven and later Ange777). She admitted having a bad impact on that game with the sudden return reading scum to me. Town was about to set the vote, and I didn't want to vote for someone I didn't believe to be mafia unless it was the only possible way to get a Day 1 lynch, which I announced from the beginning.
Then heist: Wtf, you mention what you believe without even saying what should be wrong about that scumslip, he says he doesn't believe suki to be mafia and 12 minutes later he contradicts himself by saying it looks like I'm bussing. Also, bad redefinition, my entire response was: 'Your word choice is strange cause it contradicts your official beliefs'. Also, you completely ignore the time of the post, i posted that before s0lstice died, but you say I use that to push after s0lstice's death.
I understand you don't have a good overview of my actions cause you just joined the game, but you should really read everything if you plan on going for such accusations of single players. You will find all kind of suspicious things about other players if you go with the premise that they are guilty and look close enough.
Eishi_Ki: Contributing and boost my filter? You realize I was the first to push the case and barely anyone believed Eishi to be scum? How exactly should that help me as mafia? Taking a hard stance?Going against the grain? None of these helps mafia. Eishi joined in against me after two posts from heist and O.Golden, accusing me for townreading sciberbia too early.
Now that you know that sciberbia is town with very high probability, why should I defend him as mafia? Townreading him actually was against the mafia's interest, as you see with suki's next post doubting my read. Then heist and O.Golden attacked me.
I do not understand this post. You keep trying to discredit ange, you keep to your flawed logic in regards of scum-criteria to explain your read on suki (who was not that active anyway) and nobody was as "sure" as you that suki was town, that is the thing standing out not that others had a townread on him as well.
Regarding your paragraph about heist: I still do not see a "scumslip" in that particular single post. And your response cannot really be counted as "pushing" a case. You actively started to pursue heist only after solstice's post after the lynch.
You will have to do better than that to convince me of your innocence. What about actually looking at the cases against you and try to explain your stances and actions in regards to them instead of just random mudthrowing?
On June 05 2012 01:27 Vivax wrote: Regarding suki: How is the reasoning odd? Suki posted more, that's all. What made me so suspicious about Ange777 is her timing when she posted something substantial for the first time. Read on.
That's all I wanted to know. The reason it's odd is that by the time you posted that statement, Ange had been so active after returning that, in terms of pure filter length (a bad proxy for contribution, I'll admit), Ange had contributed more. Being concerned with the timing is fine, and perfectly reasonable - heck, Ange even admits that the timing is bad for her. But I find the idea that Suki had contributed more odd, as Ange produced more in a few hours than Suki had all cycle.
Ange: Look at Ange's posts before her comeback, she even announced she would contribute and didn't do so until there was a real danger of being lynched cause town was about to lynch the most lurking person in that game. Here she suddenly appeared, saying that we might hit blue as only inital defense, and apologized for the absence saying what kept her busy.
... She admitted having a bad impact on that game with the sudden return reading scum to me. Town was about to set the vote, and I didn't want to vote for someone I didn't believe to be mafia unless it was the only possible way to get a Day 1 lynch, which I announced from the beginning.
Again, it sort of comes down to whether you were tunneling or are mafia. I tunneled super hard in a past game as town, pushed lynches on nothing but townies, so I know it can happen. But the way that the Suki push and Ange's return happened, both are valid ways to read your actions. Yes, Ange could have been coming bad to save her ass. But she also made posts saying she was lurking, was going to have to lurk a little longer, and then when she returned brought some analysis and actively had a good impact. Even if Suki had flipped town, Ange DID come back and have some sort of good impact, because it got a lot of discussion going. So I just don't like the way you hung on to Ange having a "bad impact," where she meant she had negatively impact town in the past, and you were unwilling to see that she was no longer doing so.
Then heist: Wtf, you mention what you believe without even saying what should be wrong about that scumslip, he says he doesn't believe suki to be mafia and 12 minutes later he contradicts himself by saying it looks like I'm bussing. Also, bad redefinition, my entire response was: 'Your word choice is strange cause it contradicts your official beliefs'. Also, you completely ignore the time of the post, i posted that before s0lstice died, but you say I use that to push after s0lstice's death.
I'll address this below
I understand you don't have a good overview of my actions cause you just joined the game, but you should really read everything if you plan on going for such accusations of single players. You will find all kind of suspicious things about other players if you go with the premise that they are guilty and look close enough.
I don't have the best overview, no. However, I have read the whole game through twice, and I've been poking through filters as well. Heck, the player I'm replacing found you scummy. So it's not purely a replacement thing.
Eishi_Ki: Contributing and boost my filter? You realize I was the first to push the case and barely anyone believed Eishi to be scum? How exactly should that help me as mafia? Taking a hard stance?Going against the grain? None of these helps mafia. Eishi joined in against me after two posts from heist and O.Golden, accusing me for townreading sciberbia too early.
That bit's just a thought I had. The way in which you tunneled him, then swapped to tunneling Ange, just feels a little off. Don't entirely know what to do with it, but you got a lot of mileage out of posting about him and then promptly decided he was town.
Now that you know that sciberbia is town with very high probability, why should I defend him as mafia? Townreading him actually was against the mafia's interest, as you see with suki's next post doubting my read. Then heist and O.Golden attacked me.
I don't read much at all into the first few moments of the game. He pushed a no-lynch, because he found it mathematically superior. If mafia chose to jump all over that statement and push it for all of D1 as a reason to lynch, they would have looked ridiculous.
I absolutely agree with the portion of solstice's case concerning his vote. The move to Suki late isn't as odd to me as the move to unforgiven in between, because with the candidates being ange, suki, unforgiven, and ange looking better and better, unforgiven WOULD be the way to go.
Beyond the way his vote moved, I'm not finding him particularly scummy. Still leaning Vivax.
To the extent that we're discussing this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
I have no idea how this is a scumslip, or scummy at all. The contradiction that some folks are seeing is that if he thinks Suki is town, then bussing is the wrong word, because you can't bus a townie. But that doesn't matter at all. That's not a scumslip. That's him misusing a term.
He's NOT misusing that term though if he's saying what he seems to be saying. That it is a bad idea to vote for someone you think is town. If making a comment about X bussing Y when you think Y is town is a scumslip, then what should we make of actively placing your vote on Y when you think Y is town? If you read it this way, it makes sense and it looks plenty townie. He's calling Vivax out on voting a townread, and then giving a possible explanation for Vivax's behavior.
In all honesty, while some may find the last sentence of his post scummy, I'm more inclined to focus on the first couple sentences, where he's reprimanding Vivax for voting a townread.
On June 05 2012 03:04 austinmcc wrote: He's NOT misusing that term though if he's saying what he seems to be saying. That it is a bad idea to vote for someone you think is town. If making a comment about X bussing Y when you think Y is town is a scumslip, then what should we make of actively placing your vote on Y when you think Y is town? If you read it this way, it makes sense and it looks plenty townie. He's calling Vivax out on voting a townread, and then giving a possible explanation for Vivax's behavior.
In all honesty, while some may find the last sentence of his post scummy, I'm more inclined to focus on the first couple sentences, where he's reprimanding Vivax for voting a townread.
I placed the vote on Y cause we needed a day 1 lynch and there were two votes left, in the end those were from me and heist as last vote. I could have kept suki alive if I wanted to. And i could have voted after heist.
I know my defense of suki looks scummy, but no mafia would defend one of theirs directly, then vote for them and reveal the information. It's a loss-loss situation for scum.
I'll just play the scenario through with the assumption i'm scum:
I could have defended suki, then stop the lynch, get a night 1 kill and 1 more day to try and get another lynch target than us two. Heist wouldn't have voted for him anyway without my vote. His main suspect was superouman at that point, so he was playing into my hands. Instead I decided to get him killed, not just bussing one of my faction, but also ensuring that all would suspect me upon that.
Then I would try to incriminate heist and O.Golden, alongside with s0lstice, just to decide and get him killed, my ally in these cases??? S0lstice would have helped me push the case further and i would have been able to deflect attention from me, and then me and another mafioso just kill him?
On June 05 2012 02:27 ShiaoPi wrote: also btw, superouman you still here? What about some witty one-liners and a random vote instead of lurking all the time?
If superouman fails to vote, will we get another replacement or a modkill?
modkill. I like replacing people in if I can but I can't just replace half the game in and out all the time...
On June 05 2012 03:04 austinmcc wrote: He's NOT misusing that term though if he's saying what he seems to be saying. That it is a bad idea to vote for someone you think is town. If making a comment about X bussing Y when you think Y is town is a scumslip, then what should we make of actively placing your vote on Y when you think Y is town? If you read it this way, it makes sense and it looks plenty townie. He's calling Vivax out on voting a townread, and then giving a possible explanation for Vivax's behavior.
In all honesty, while some may find the last sentence of his post scummy, I'm more inclined to focus on the first couple sentences, where he's reprimanding Vivax for voting a townread.
I placed the vote on Y cause we needed a day 1 lynch and there were two votes left, in the end those were from me and heist as last vote. I could have kept suki alive if I wanted to. And i could have voted after heist.
I know my defense of suki looks scummy, but no mafia would defend one of theirs directly, then vote for them and reveal the information. It's a loss-loss situation for scum.
I'll just play the scenario through with the assumption i'm scum:
I could have defended suki, then stop the lynch, get a night 1 kill and 1 more day to try and get another lynch target than us two. Heist wouldn't have voted for him anyway without my vote. His main suspect was superouman at that point, so he was playing into my hands. Instead I decided to get him killed, not just bussing one of my faction, but also ensuring that all would suspect me upon that.
Then I would try to incriminate heist and O.Golden, alongside with s0lstice, just to decide and get him killed, my ally in these cases??? S0lstice would have helped me push the case further and i would have been able to deflect attention from me, and then me and another mafioso just kill him?
GG Mafia
Could you please stop with WIFOM and defend yourself instead?
On June 03 2012 16:03 sciberbia wrote: Does anyone actually think heist is townie? I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie?
Wanted to respond to this, since I've been calling out Vivax and wanted to make sure I looked equally hard at heist. Will try not to rehash too much of what others have posted, as I feel my posts have been too long and I'm hoping shorter posts = more people reading = some discussion before the deadline. I know I got moving late in the day, but it's been dead.
On June 01 2012 08:46 heist wrote: Townies not being sure of each other Day 1 is natural. There is almost no information to go. You, on the other hand, are almost completely convinced of Sciberbia's alignment almost from the first minute of this game. Again, this lynch is not a matter of probability. Our goal isn't to eliminate suspects by placing them in pro-town status and "shooting blindly" into the rest. Our goal is to actively find suspicious, scummy people. I think this is crucial. Do not try to find townies, try to find mafia. Townies not being sure of each is much better than blindly following one player, being so seduced that you will automatically disregard everyone who attempts to argue with you or that person.
This portion of one of heist's posts bugs me. He makes a decent point about not blindly sheeping other townies, but that's a separate matter altogether from telling everyone not to try and find townies. I get mixed messages from this post, the don't sheep is pro-town, but not trying to find townies is a bad idea imo.
His voting has been covered, and doesn't look good. He admits finding both Ange and Suki town, admits voting for town, doesn't really try and sugarcoat it. Which I like, but it doesn't change the voting pattern.
Frankly, with a close look, he doesn't look all that great. The solstice NK doesn't do anything for me but WIFOM - either solstice is dangerous for good posting and finding heist scummy, or he's a kill to get a mislynch from town onto heist. But heist ain't rosy. ShiaoPi, I tunneled hard our last game together and it bit me in the ass. I still think Vivax is scummy, but heist can be read pretty scummy as well. Could you take a step back for a second and give me 1-2 things about Vivax that make him look townie, and 1-2 things about heist that make him look scummy?
Vivax, I'm not convinced golden/ShiaoPi is scummy. Lurking as a mafia tactic, fine. Lurking your way to a replacement/modkill, not so fine. And I've generally agreed with most of what ShiaoPi's had to say. So, hypothetically, if heist is scum but ShiaoPi isn't, who would be your read for the last scum?
---snip On June 04 2012 21:23 Xatalos wrote: Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself.
I'm not entirely satisfied with your defense of your actions. You deflect attention away from the points I was trying to make about you, mainly that your filter has a lot of filler content (e.g. lists of town reads, coaching players, policy discussion). Filler content is fine early on, but as we get later into the game it actively distracts from scumhunting all the while appearing like you're contributing more than you are. Does that make sense? Perhaps I didn't make those points strongly enough. I really do feel like there is a case to be made against you. I find it odd that heist and Vivax are the ones who've gotten the most flak for their vote switches and people have been content to ignore you.
Moving on to real D2 lynch candidates.
I don't support the case on heist. If the option is between a no lynch or him I will choose to add my vote to him, but I think Vivax is the stronger case. I can't believe that people seem to have taken his comments on the s0Lstice night kill seriously.
And guess who his case was: heist. -_-
This is exactly what scum would say if they were trying to promote a mislynch based on a night kill. If heist is scum, he shot s0Lstice to reduce pressure on himself. If Vivax is scum, he shot s0Lstice to make it look like heist was trying to reduce pressure on himself. This degenerates into WIFOM really fast, but it seems that some of the town have given the point credence.
Other than that Vivax's defense has not been great and has been centered around how active he is. This reminds me of Eishi_Ki's comments on "Hollywooding" in poker. What are some of the traits that define Vivax's play? Hyper-aggresiveness, activity, and almost complete assurance in some fairly weak reads. My theory is that he came into the game with just such a playstyle in mind, making himself the opposite of the typical scummy player. I think he has overdone it by taking it to an extreme. All of us townies have felt doubt in our reads, correct? As town, we are each dealing with a game of incomplete information. Vivax switched votes quite a bit toward the D1 deadline all the while saying, "I know I'm right, I know I'm right!" This is not the way a townie would play. A town player would admit to possibly being wrong and/or convinced of a better case. It all reeks of attempting to keep up a facade.
@austin: Some minor stuff on heist is especially his lastpost, he claims to add more to the case on vivax, but it is pretty much sheeping what was outlined in ange's huge case. The other thing would be the voting pattern prior day1lynch, but I believe Xatalos more fishy in that regard as he was the first to switch to unforgiven while agreeing with ange.
If you only look at vivax' first half of day 1 it actually reads as pretty townie, but come the lynch-discussion he just goes totally off the charts. So maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie.
I am confident that town will win anyway even if you lynch the wrong one. Once that's done, I hope that you focus on the real scum, I don't feel the points I made in my defense are weak, but it's easy to think a player is guilty when most of the information posted is about him, and day 2 has been mostly about me.
You're doing the error of 'lynching the most controversial or outspoken player'. But feel free to make it, since Shiao and heist will have a lot of trouble nevertheless, cause I will flip town and their cases are extremely one-sided (towards me).
Just mind that they have another kill at their disposal, I would opt for sciberbia if I were mafia right now.
Was a fun first game, guys. But I need to work on my strat.
On June 05 2012 04:42 austinmcc wrote: Vivax, I'm not convinced golden/ShiaoPi is scummy. Lurking as a mafia tactic, fine. Lurking your way to a replacement/modkill, not so fine. And I've generally agreed with most of what ShiaoPi's had to say. So, hypothetically, if heist is scum but ShiaoPi isn't, who would be your read for the last scum?
On June 05 2012 04:42 austinmcc wrote: Vivax, I'm not convinced golden/ShiaoPi is scummy. Lurking as a mafia tactic, fine. Lurking your way to a replacement/modkill, not so fine. And I've generally agreed with most of what ShiaoPi's had to say. So, hypothetically, if heist is scum but ShiaoPi isn't, who would be your read for the last scum?
If heist is scum, superouman would probably be town, since superouman was the guy heist voted for before he switched to suki after me.
But to be blunt, I don't see other players than them who could be scum.
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority. No matter what my opinion on the suspect is, the alignment flipping will unveil a crapload of information.
That said, if suki is gonna flip town, I really hope you will be able to recognize Ange777's motives behind her intention to push a case on him.
If suki flips mafia, then I was clearly wrong and might end up in trouble for defending him. That would also prove Ange777 innocent and everyone supporting the vote first (not the ones joining in when it was obvious).
However, do you notice how there's actually noone defending suki as of now except me?While there are a bunch of persons trying to deflect the attention from Ange777.
Really, it's disgusting to see how people turn from the lurker to the poster in the arc of three hours, whereas the poster has been active all the time. And all of that happening in the last hours, making the outcome more uncertain, the mafia stronger.
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
I dont belive vivax is scum, nevertheless i will change my vote if neccesary, i think we still need 2 votes for a lynch?
Also, I'm lynching myself cause i cba to argue with everyone. People should just see for themselves if they run over my defense.I'm done with explaining.
vivax, congratulations your actions are now making zero sense...Guess you will not flip townie but no way that we can get another lynch now. I am not convinced on heist, who would be the only alternative..
It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho.
Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused.
You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit.
Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
and
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
On June 05 2012 06:40 Vivax wrote: @ Unforgiven_ve
Should be 7 votes on me right now.
Also, I'm lynching myself cause i cba to argue with everyone. People should just see for themselves if they run over my defense.I'm done with explaining.
trust me, i know how you feel, its not the way i post, if the town letting the mafia speak for them
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
*abridged fluff be here. I forgot about this and you want a daypost fast I assume* Two new men were brought to Sheriff Qatol: Vivax and Superouman. "Sheriff, we found two more of them guyses who want to kill us!" Qatol: "You're certain about it?" "Sure, as certain as we were yesterday and you saw his blood dropping to the ground, didn't you?" Qatol: "So be it, prepare a nice, big fire for we will have a barbeque tonight!"
Vivax the Vanilla Townie was burned after being shot in the head Superouman the Vanilla Townie was burned alive (modkill)
It is now Night. You have about 24 hours time to get your nightactions in! Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) as always
While this certainly does suck, mislynches happen in nearly every game, and we should all bear some responsibility. I regret not finding the time to post in his defense. I spent my time trying to convince you guys that heist is scummy rather than that vivax is townie, and that didn't work out so well.
Anyway, we now stand at 6 townies vs 2 mafia. Today's events hurt, but honestly I think we still have a good chance to win, especially if we have blues.
I was expecting both of these flips, so they don't really change my stance on anything. I'm just waiting to hear how they'll affect the opinions of people who voted for vivax.
To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
sciberbia
Has shared his reads very openly throughout the game and acted accordingly without any inconsistencies in logic. If he were to be Mafia, I would be extremely shocked.
Verdict: very likely town
austinmcc
Was the driving force for lynching suki (as Ange777) and seemed to care about the lynch target for today as well, even if it wasn't correct. I find it hard to believe he's Mafia either.
Verdict: very likely town
Miltonkram
I've been too focused on his early posts to see the big picture: there's a potential townie logic behind his whole filter, even in early game, if you look closely enough. Sometimes it's bad logic, but it's always there. No post in his filter makes me think "this is driving Mafia agenda for certain". He seems to care about catching Mafia and isn't wishy-washy in his posts. I also liked this post:
On June 05 2012 07:06 Miltonkram wrote: Can we wait on analysis until we have something to analyze please? Thank you.
Some players started showing uncertainty about Vivax's alignment close to the deadline (after pushing him for a long time as very likely Mafia) or even called for a no-lynch instead of lynching him (lol), but Miltonkram didn't waver despite Vivax's strange posting. He didn't call for a no-lynch or plan an "escape route" for the inevitable flip. His whole filter and especially his play on Day 2 makes me think he's town.
Verdict: pretty likely town
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't still committed to (or even pursued) much of anything, merely bandwagoning on Ange777 and then Vivax. Passive play that doesn't point to almost anything. Not a good lynch choice for Day 3, but something to keep an eye on.
Verdict: neutral
Unforgiven_ve
A lot of things point to him being Mafia:
- Trying to get a no-lynch for Day 2 (information denial / confusion) - Very certain that suki would flip Mafia (bussing?) - Certain that Vivax would flip town (buying credibility?) - Promoting the correctness of his own reads (trying to buy credibility by using the information available as Mafia?)
Still, him being Mafia would mean that they decided to go for a double bus (or at least a bus) pretty early on, which doesn't seem too likely especially in a newbie game. That's why he's not a primary suspect for me.
Verdict: neutral
heist
- Flip-flopping about suki's alignment - Weird assumption of Vivax bussing suki (although this isn't too conclusive as I conceded earlier) - s0Lstice's night kill would be most easily explained by heist being Mafia (although this is WIFOM)
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
- - - -
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
You continue to promote your own correctness... How is that a townie thing to do? If you were so sure Vivax was town, why didn't you try to switch the lynch like sciberbia tried? And why did you suggest a no-lynch before the deadline? And why would me "looking helpful" or "leading town" be Mafia traits, seriously? I have a hard time deciding if you're just a suboptimal townie or Mafia (and overdoing the townie act pretty hard...).
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I'll just tag along your list: -Can you point me to the post where I defended suki? -I agree that you might have some suspicions on me for my behaviour just before the vote. I simply cannot fathom why he voted himself and refused to really regard the multiple cases against him. I see no motivation for scum to vote themselves, which was the reason for my posts where I stated my confusion. Regarding your opinion on an escape route. I could have easily unvoted if I really wanted to stay clear of the fallout, I did not since I said "a no-lynch is just as bad" and I still stand by it. Yes it sucked that we got one of our own, but a no-lynch would have been worse in regards of gathering information. We now have 2 confirmed (albeit dead) townies to look through. -In my case against Eishi I did state that it is a weak suspicion, I encouraged him to post more, but sadly he seems unable to due to RL constraints. I would say it is quite important with whom and how suki interacted as he is a confirmed scum so a soft-defense from a confirmed mafia player is in my opinion nothing to scoff at. Especially if that player has not had a big presence in this game until now. -Isn't that last argument kind of not an argument against me? I fail to see how it makes me scummy to suspect you (besides OMGUS) based on filler content. What is important is this game not a past game.
On another note:
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
Why help mafia in choosing the night kill? I am not against night discussion (it might help our blues after all) but does that bolded part only strike me as weird?
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I'll just tag along your list: -Can you point me to the post where I defended suki? -I agree that you might have some suspicions on me for my behaviour just before the vote. I simply cannot fathom why he voted himself and refused to really regard the multiple cases against him. I see no motivation for scum to vote themselves, which was the reason for my posts where I stated my confusion. Regarding your opinion on an escape route. I could have easily unvoted if I really wanted to stay clear of the fallout, I did not since I said "a no-lynch is just as bad" and I still stand by it. Yes it sucked that we got one of our own, but a no-lynch would have been worse in regards of gathering information. We now have 2 confirmed (albeit dead) townies to look through. -In my case against Eishi I did state that it is a weak suspicion, I encouraged him to post more, but sadly he seems unable to due to RL constraints. I would say it is quite important with whom and how suki interacted as he is a confirmed scum so a soft-defense from a confirmed mafia player is in my opinion nothing to scoff at. Especially if that player has not had a big presence in this game until now. -Isn't that last argument kind of not an argument against me? I fail to see how it makes me scummy to suspect you (besides OMGUS) based on filler content. What is important is this game not a past game.
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
Why help mafia in choosing the night kill? I am not against night discussion (it might help our blues after all) but does that bolded part only strike me as weird?
You (well, more accurately o.Golden_ne) "kind of" defended suki here with deflection (even more suspicious than defending straight):
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
That's definitely the most suspicious interaction with suki so far in the game...
How is self-voting uncharasteristic for Mafia? Maybe he could have hoped to trick someone into unvoting (as Unforgiven_ve suggested soon after) to cause a no-lynch or just to confuse the discussion. I don't see why you thought he was townish/neutral after such a stunt.
Hmm. Okay, your suspicion of Eishi_Ki isn't that bad, although still with weak reasoning. Could be aiming for an easy prey (mislynch) as well.
Yeah, maybe it was a slight OMGUS to suspect you for suspecting me. It's not bad to criticize for filler content, although if you look at my last game as town, I have way less filler content now, so it's not really a huge point. So I remove this point from the list, but you shouldn't still ignore it as you seem to do.
I was just saying that last night I didn't want to share my town/Mafia reads before the night kill precisely to avoid aiding Mafia, but now I feel I have a bigger chance of being shot, so I didn't take risks and posted anyway before the deadline.
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
On June 05 2012 07:15 Unforgiven_ve wrote: i really dont know how some of you cannot see, interpret and smell the Innocence from posts of some players
What in particular made you sure of his innocence?
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
What in particular. What portions of what posts, specifically?
On June 06 2012 02:35 austinmcc wrote: What in particular. What portions of what posts, specifically?
@austinmcc Does it really matter? What's done is done. Unless you are interested in lynching Unfogiven, I don't really see the point in talking about this now. We can discuss it after the game.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
@shiaopi I understand that it seems unfair, but golden's alignment is guaranteed the same as your alignment, so it's perfectly logical to draw evidence against you from things golden said. Just as it's logical to think austinmcc is townie based mostly on the actions of ange777. Just because it's out of your control doesn't make it not evidence.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
I'm interested in getting a stronger read on Unforgiven. He's seemed scummy at times and for all his conviction on his various reads, he doesn't back them up with much. I'd like to see him back up his statements with some more reasoning, rather than things like:
On June 02 2012 09:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: danm, i just noticed, the las post i made from my phone didnt got here.
My main suspect, is a tie: Heis / Xatalos
One of them is mafia, i dont think both are scum because his way of play would just be ridiculous, being overagressive since the begging
On June 02 2012 09:56 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Im sure im gonna die tonight (Xalatos, that means GAME's night ;D sorry), Possible escenarios for me
suki mafia, xalatos town: suki just used my "town leader" missunderstanding to try and push a mislynch on anyone Xalatos had on sight, he wanted to get a bandwagon rolling as long it werent on any of his friends, the other two mafias waited to see if this worked to jump at last hour.
suki mafia, Xalatos mafia: They accorded in their QT they would try to take "town leadership" to their own, Xalatos states a case, suki pushed it, some other couple townies fall for this, and the 3rd mafia joins to guarantee a mayority Because my post are a bit(lot?) confusing to townies, they want to use this to gain some advantage, leaving me alive and triying to get Ange777 instead.
suki mafia, heist town: heist missread everything i posted and just falls for the starting random post against me, he even dedicates a lines to me + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: @Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
Thanks to this post i made my acussation against suki and started to get more agressive, thank you! He then casta vote to superouman and later falls for teh case against me.
suki mafia, heist mafia this is where it gets interesting, His first post a some random tips to me, attacks some random townies, wants to look "neutral" when my case was starting to get some heat, when things seemed to reach a finishing point, he drops this pearl
You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.
You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.
I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.
My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.
##Unvote ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
You know, just cassually voting to the main (innocent) target at the time...and then one hour before deadline, he cast his vote against suki, because you know, he said MANY TIMES lynching is preferably to nothing and he had to stand by his word ... im already seeing the mafia QT "HEY SUKI IM SORRY, WE NEED TO WINZ LOLZ"
That makes him slightly higher on my list.
FoS (and pretty sure vote, at least something really weird happens or if im alive at day 2) heist
As always, if you dont understand something and/or want to ask something, please do. i'll be checking from my phone tonight
Brings up heist's vote, but nothing else specific. He even notes that heists's voteswap was in line with what he said he'd do.
On June 05 2012 06:28 Unforgiven_ve wrote: wtf whit the replacements, it makes it harder to try and read someone after 2 days of play :s
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote: Also know that I will be voting for anyone except myself, should that help in achieving a majority.
I dont belive vivax is scum, nevertheless i will change my vote if neccesary, i think we still need 2 votes for a lynch?
doesn't believe Vivax is scum, no reasoning.
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho.
Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused.
You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit.
Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
screams mafia for me.
There's some reasoning here, finally, but I'd like to see it expanded. Still doesn't explain why he thinks Vivax is town. Gives reasons for suspecting heist, but they feel a little flimsy. "the way he started to play," how he acted around the suki lynch."
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Again, reasons but vague. His posts are towny. His attitude and defense of suki.
Not calling him scum yet, but look at his filter. He's very convinced in his reads and his own towniness, but he doesn't really back up the reads with quotes, sound reasoning. At the very least, I want specific reasoning to be able to hold him to.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.
Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
The problem is that you have the same alignment as o.Golden_ne, so o.Golden_ne's actions are equally important as your own actions when determining your alignment. It's the same when there's a hydra player (2+ players on one account): you have to consider every post, no matter who posted it. The way how you downplay the importance of o.Golden_ne's posts can be seen as either misguided policy-making or deflecting dangerous attention away from them.
I'd like to get this out there just in case I die. If I don't die, my schedule is just about to clear up and I should be much more active in the last 36 or so hours of D3.
While reexamining my thoughts, I realized that I had turned a blind eye to heist's play. Most of his opinions lined up with mine and I was pretty damn sure Vivax was scum. Now that Vivax flipped town I think heist is our best possible D3 lynch. If I'm alive come day cycle I'll explain my thoughts in full.
This next theory is pretty fucking crazy and I don't expect anyone to take it seriously unless heist turns out to be a mislynch. There is a small chance that sciberbia and Unforgiven are scum. Imagine this line of play for a scum team, two of you bus another player D1 and hope to ride free of suspicion for the rest of the game. I know it seems pretty out there but if there is anyone who could pull it off, I have enough respect for sciberbia's play to think he might have orchestrated it. This has been a nagging thought in the back of my mind for a while. I don't think this is how it went so I'll only seriously entertain the notion if/when we hit LYLO.
I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.
Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him: - golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good. - golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town - golden's defense of suki was really scummy - shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia - shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly
If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.
Well, that wasn't too shocking :/ I pretty much agree with sciberbia's final Mafia reads, so lynching heist seems like the best option for today.
##Vote heist
I came back here just to see the night kill before falling asleep, but now I really need some sleep. I'll post more detailed thoughts tomorrow. ShiaoPi, do you still think heist is townie?
What's going on here? Only three short posts since I went to sleep yesterday? Almost half of this day has already gone to waste. Everyone, you should post your reads and reasoning to get things moving already -.-
I'm pretty sure the last 2 Mafia are between heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve. heist seems like the most obvious Mafia - it's telling that nobody (except ShiaoPi) has seen him as a town read, and he was the prime suspect for both s0Lstice and sciberbia before they were killed.
If heist flips Mafia, ShiaoPi would be the most logical third Mafia. He's simply had too many suspect interactions with both suki and heist. If heist flips town (which I find hard to believe at this point), Unforgiven_ve would be more likely Mafia than ShiaoPi. Unforgiven_ve has been shouting "hey, I'm town, my reads are 100% assured and correct, can you see I'm not Mafia yet?" at every turn, but it would be pretty stupid play (although not impossible, looking at his posting...) if he took his act far enough to tunnel both of his teammates. That's really nonsensical, but then again, so has been his general posting style...
The current vote count is 2 for heist (me, Unforgiven_ve). Miltonkram's latest post indicates that he'd be willing to lynch heist for today. That means one more vote is needed for the lynch to go through.
ShiaoPi, Miltonkram and austinmcc: what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Eishi_Ki, why did you even join this game if you're not going to play it? Or maybe you're just actively lurking? It doesn't really look like that, but anything's possible. Your latest post is 2 days old... So what are your thoughts on heist, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve?
Unforgiven_ve, why do you actually think heist is 100% Mafia and what's your reasoning for randomly saying I'm "75% Mafia"...? What are your thoughts on ShiaoPi?
heist, what are your Mafia reads now that Vivax and Superouman flipped town? Are you still "comfortable" with lynching Unforgiven_ve? What are your detailed opinions on every player right now?
I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
On June 07 2012 03:42 Miltonkram wrote: I'm willing to lynch heist. If he flips red then I think ShiaoPi is scum too. If he flips town then I'll have to pursue other leads such as Eishi_Ki, Unforgiven or Xatalos. I haven't been around much because my sister got in a car accident while the rest of my family is out of town. She'll be ok, but I have to drive out to my family's place and take care of her for a while. I should be back with plenty of time before the lynch deadline, but just in case I don't here is my vote.
##Vote: heist
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
@ Unforgiven You're half-assing your posting. I've got RL complications and I can still find time to get in the thread and contribute. It's not slipped my mind that you may have bussed suki D1. If heist flips green, which is unlikely but possible, my attention will be turning towards you. You've still got a little less than 24 hours left in the day cycle to commit to some kind of reads.
@ Xatalos I've outlined my opinions on heist and ShiaoPi. Right now I would imagine heist is staying out of the thread so as not to reveal much more information to us. It's just confirming my suspicions against him more and more. The case on ShiaoPi leans a little bit on how heist flips but not entirely. If he's scum Golden's play set him up pretty badly. If heist is a mislynch I'm considering Unforgiven, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi and you as all possible scum.
@ Eishi_Ki I'd love to hear from you on just about anything. Post your reads please. With the information we've gained from the N2 kill what are your opinions on heist? I realize you have RL things going on as well but please give us some information/reads we can hold you to.
@ Unforgiven I realized that I've been holding too many people in suspicion. My thoughts have been something like this, "It makes sense for X to be scum and it makes sense for Y to be scum, but Z seems scummy too. If Z is scum then X and Y can't possibly be scum." It's really difficult for me to make any headway if I keep thinking like that. Right now the best case is against heist and it makes sense for ShiaoPi to be his scumbuddy. I'll be reassessing the thread as soon as we see heist flip. Do I find some of Xatalos's play scummy? Sure, but I also find parts of Eishi_Ki's and ShiaoPi's, as well as your own, play scummy too. You can't all be scum so I need to start sticking to a few assumptions.
My folks are back in town and taking care of my sister. She only had a few minor injuries from the crash so that won't be weighing on my mind as much.
On June 07 2012 11:30 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Milton, What about Xatalos?
Could you finally tell me why I'm such a likely Mafia? Just for pushing your lynch Day 1? And what's your opinion on ShiaoPi (I know heist is 100% Mafia for you without much reasoning whatsoever...)? I still don't think you're anyhow "confirmed town" based on your stance toward suki... Just less likely Mafia than otherwise. And things like leaving these unhelpful one liners everywhere aren't helping you.
austinmcc, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi, heist, where have you all been? Most of Day 3 has already passed and you haven't posted at all. Get posting before the deadline! I'll have to be offline for a while, but I can check the thread irregularly from my phone, so I should somehow be able to post for today. I'll be back home a couple of hours before the deadline.
I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS.
Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions.
Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post.
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
His next vote is on ange777:
On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:
-snip-
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped--
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.
On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
Heist I came into today thinking I'd be voting heist, like right off the bat. Heist or vivax scum, vivax not, heist is, done. But I looked over the thread and I looked over filters today and I'm feeling less confident about that.
Bits that I think make him look townie:
On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote: @Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
This post felt incredibly patronizing. It seemed a little disconnected from the game, like heist walked unforgiven outside the game, sat him down, gave him a talking to, and then they both came back in. Did this post strike anyone else as odd? I thought it kind of called attention to heist, but if nobody else thought this looked strange then perhaps not.
On June 02 2012 02:00 heist wrote: It just concerned me that with ALL this talk about lurking almost no one even mentions Superouman. I definitely do favor a lynch. So if it comes down to it I will change my vote to enforce a lynch, but I'd like to give Ange77 some time to defend himself.
When you guys had two lurkers, ange and superouman, heist was the player most interested in superouman. I don't read this as scummy. If you've got two lurkers, and everyone wants to jump on one, why keep bringing up the other? Yes, ange returned and stopped lurking, but there was no way to know that. I just don't see the reason for scum heist to poke around about superouman instead of pushing ange.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: For me, suki is still number 1, if Ange777 flips red this will just convice me even more, i bet they are wishing for a NL. I will change my vote before deadline if neccesary, i still have a couple hour to burn.
You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???
I don't know how suki and ange fit together in Unforgiven's mind, but heist called him out on this. If I'm mafia here, don't I want to encourage this? Either suki gets lynched and then I can push ange, or at some point ange gets lynched (and flips green) and now I've set suki up to look more green. The counterargument here is that ange and suki being teammates is so nonsensical to me that I don't think a mafia member could actually run with and push that idea. Unforgiven Except for suki's early vote, unforgiven is still looking scummy. He keeps throwing out entirely unsubstantiated statements, and is really, really pushing the idea that he was right. He responds to requests to actually explain himself with:
On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious
Which I really don't like.
And the more I read his filter, the more I dislike it. I find the constant reinforcement of the suki lynch to be especially troubling -- + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:19 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Xatalos, please think this. Im risking my neck here! im goin all-in for suki, that would be a ridiculous way of play for a mafia dont you think? Its something pretty obvious, at least for me, im convinced he is mafia and when his alignment is revealed + the mafia kill at night, we will have a shitload of information, dont you think?
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs
This is just rude. Cut it out. It takes 7 votes to lynch someone, and you spent the time before the lynch flopping around like a fish out of water, reduced to pleading for votes. It's not our fault you drew so much suspicion for playing like shit.
may i remind you, pleading for votes to get a mafia(roleblocker) at D1, read my last post, and make a better one please, it worked one time, why not twice ;D
-- Why do this as town? Why constantly remind everyone that suki was scum and you thought she was scum? A lot of other players did the same thing. Why is it so important to unforgiven that we all be reminded? Going to read some other filters and read this Xatalos case.
On June 07 2012 20:18 ShiaoPi wrote: First of regarding my opinion on heist:
I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS.
Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone
Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline.
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions.
Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post.
I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.[/QUOTE]
1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it?
Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.
On June 07 2012 21:54 ShiaoPi wrote: I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.
1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it?
Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.[/QUOTE]
1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?
I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...
1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?
I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...
1) Heist's case mainly rests on the voting issue, his stance on suki has been pretty solid all the time, defending him. Now you cite his emotional play as reason, but why did you discard it earlier? Same thing with the bussing comment.
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
3)You could push both as both would be a mislynch in scum's favor. Yes, why would mafia-Xatalos do it if mafia-heist is doing it??? You are measuring with different scales regarding yourself and heist.
I do not even understand your last sentence. How would you need to read my case against you for my sake? But yeah I am waiting for your response
While reading through ShiaoPi's case against me, I had to wonder, why is he going so all-in to save heist? That's when I came to a realization: this is practically LYLO already! Let's assume for a moment that Eishi_Ki is town and heist & ShiaoPi are Mafia... Then it all suddenly makes sense.
A) Eishi_Ki has been posting less and less, so it's looking pretty likely that he will be modkilled at the deadline -> 4 town left. B) Heist votes for me at the last minute to avoid a modkill. C) A mislynch (me) now -> 3 town left. C) Mafia night kill -> 2 town left. D) 2 Mafia vs 2 town -> Mafia has achieved its win condition.
So: ShiaoPi trying to desperately switch the lynch from heist to me isn't all that surprising, after all. This day will basically already decide the game one way or another. Lynching heist will lead to town victory, a mislynch will lead to certain Mafia victory. There's just no way we can afford a mislynch now.
Before going into the main case, just some comments to ShiaoPi's latest attack: 1) heist's stance on suki has definitely not been solid. Now you're just twisting facts. Go read sciberbia's filter where he nicely collected the evicence on this. I conceded earlier that heist's excessive usage of capslock there wasn't a good argument, since he did that a lot in other posts, but you should definitely see *some* kind of a panic in his style of posting there. Same with the bussing comment, I conceded that it wasn't the best argument, but still held some weight. 3) You say doing something would be stupid for a Mafia heist, but when I do something equally stupid for a Mafia Xatalos, it suddenly doesn't count? Just read my filter again - without confirmation bias - and you'll see that my play makes very little sense as Mafia. Much, much less than for heist. Although I doubt that's really relevant to your interests anyway...
Now, into the main case...
1) "Filler/moderating content", as you put it, can be a sign of Mafia wanting to look helpful. It can also be a sign of a townie who has A) a lot of time in his hands and B) not enough solid reads to post 100% purely about them. You seem to ignore that option, for some reason... Just look at my history. I have a TON of "filler/moderating content" when I play town. Not so much when I play Mafia.
2) I don't see how it's scummy to suspect a suspicious player, then start looking elsewhere when your suspicions are reduced somewhat. It would actually be scummy to continue tunneling a player while he starts showing signs of towniness.
3) I didn't really have a solid Mafia read at that point, and most people wanted to just lynch a lurker (yourself included - I mean o.Golden_ne), I was more supportive of lynching the more cautious and lurky lurker (Ange777) over the merely frustrating lurker (Superouman).
4) If you consider that as a "soft" (more like pretty clear IMO) defense of suki, then your (o.Golden_ne's) vague defense of suki earlier was softer than soft, and massively more suspicious. Still you keep dismissing that post and claiming it shouldn't be considered while analyzing yourself, the replacement.
5) suki was away for the unfolding of the lynch (while Unforgiven_ve was not), but she had posted a lot of well thought-out posts with both real opinions and reasoning - while Unforgiven_ve had just posted pretty much weird stuff without reasoning to back up his opinions. Although Unforgiven_ve was online at that moment and suki was not, I considered suki to truthfully be the more active and helpful poster of these two (in hindsight, she was Mafia, but we're talking about that moment in time).
6) I already mentioned that as I was typing my vote, the majority hadn't yet been attained, but heist ninja'd me to probably try and buy some "credibility" over me. But in the end, it doesn't really matter who voted first... The vote was already settled. We both had mentioned earlier that we were pro-lynch and would consolidate to prevent a no-lynch, so a no-lynch wasn't going to happen anyway.
7) You continue to bash me for "sheeping" arguments, but if there's a good argument already mentioned by another (now dead) player, why shouldn't I also take it into consideration while deciding my vote? As is said: every idea has already been invented at some point in history, but there's nothing wrong with reusing old ideas. And I actually did add my own observations: the emotionality/hastiness (although proven wrong), the panic, the bussing comment...
8) How come those 4 points were already addressed before...? Considering that I focused solely on Vivax's latest "defense" post and analyzed it. Nobody else had yet even mentioned that post. I don't get this part of your case. I switched to Vivax because his defense seemed scummy and heist's defense seemed more townish at the time. Besides, if I was Mafia, I should have just retained my vote on heist... The majority of players wanted to lynch Vivax anyway, so my vote didn't change the end result at all. It would have also looked better for me to be on the "right" side of the lynch (like sciberbia and Unforgiven_ve) as opposed to voting for the mislynch. If I was Mafia, my behaviour wouldn't make any sense during Day 2.
9) Actually, this is my third game, so you should go read my two previous games. My play in this game has been similar to my previous game (town), and very different from my first game (Mafia). That should be telling already. I don't know how my play is non-committal considering my hard stances of heist+you being the remaining Mafia team and my high town reads of several players during the game (Cattivik/Vivax, sciberbia, Ange777/austinmcc...).
I am simply of the opinion that heist is town and you are scum. That's the only reason for me "going all-in". Doesn't seem to matter anymore since nobody seems to care for this game anymore besides us two...
Besides the bussing comment (and it can be read both ways) heist's stance has simply been I am not sure that suki will flip red as he seems townie to him.
But it remains that you and heist have been close in opinion on day1 and therefore you are still weighing differently.
1) We won't be able to discuss on that point it seems, I am not budging from my point you are not from yours.
2) What is scummy is how easily you seem to be swayed from your own opinion
3) Was not a critique against you
4) A "clear" defense would have been what Vivax had done. So I considered yours soft. Semantics really. We already discussed Golden's post on suki. I am of the opinion take it with a grain of salt and you are of the opinion to take it for 100%. We can't argue on that anymore. Point remains we both defended suki.
5) Point remains, you tried to get unforgiven lynched instead of suki
6) Timeline remains as it is, I already acknowledged the possibility of being ninja'ed but it is not my main argument anyway.
7) I am bashing you for "sheeping" since you have never contributed your own reasoning on why somebody should have been lynched. I agree there is nothing wrong with taking arguments from other players but why is there none from your own side? Because you are not really actively scumhunting anyway? That's my conclusion from it.
8) Nobody commented on that defense post, but the "points" you made out from it where all already mentioned, it was just a recurring pattern in Vivax' play. If you are mafia your behaviour makes sense as I outlined it. You simply do not care who gets mislynched as long as you can get a mislynch, so you naturally go with the mood of the thread which was lynch Vivax instead of heist.
9) I meant non-comittal in ways of not pushing your own reads always piggybacking on someone else's opinion. Sharing town-reads is not pushing a case. And it can be interpreted ambigious as well.
Why am I still doing such an effort in this game anyway? Nobody seems to care anymore -_-
I have been reading and reading, and need to be in here posting instead. So I'm going to do that. Shiao and Xatalos, I have read your exchange today. You guys DO have some points. But please, for just a moment, table them. I'm not willing to vote for either of you just this instant, need more time to look through that I can't take right now without posting. Please read below.
Okay. I've been reading and reading. I don't like that I was so inactive after trying to stop a modkill here, and I haven't pulled my weight. But I need to stop reading and get active in this discussion. Going to look at both Xatalos and ShiaoPi more in depth, but before that...
Every time I read this game. And I mean Every. Single. Time. I find Unforgiven scummy.
- He posts nothing but policy talk and babble for the first half of D1 - He writes his bit on Suki. Which is this - + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: suki: his first post is about the NL d1 theme, and asking Miltonkram about his fst vote. His 3rd post is some semi-analysis about the people the town is talking about and to close his post he throws a vote against me, before make it clear "it may change"...then a couple more post naming Cattivik, Superouman and me.
That's it...he nevers really pressure someone, playing it really safe, his filter is short, he's just taunting Cattivik in hopes of preparing a Day 2 candidate.
For now on: ##Vote suki
but it may change uh?!
- He proceeds to play incredibly scummy
3/4 of the way through D1 just wants to talk about extended majority lynch (the normal lynch mechanic, and the lynch mechanic in the only other game he's played. + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: snipped This extended mayority lynch will fuck us pretty bad, mafia are theonly ones benefiting from this i think... snipped
On June 02 2012 04:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Im the only one thinking extended mayority makes it pretty hard for town to win?
Pleads for votes on Suki, despite his "case" being near nonexistant (Other people have made the cases at this point)
CONSTANTLY references how Suki has been his target
Dicks around with Ange enough that she becomes very suspicious of him. I won't post the whole exchange on this, but here's a good summary from her + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own.
In the beginning I just thought Unforgiven's play to be awful (no offense!). Therefore I tried to show that Suki's case was bad as he 1) switched his vote from a in his mind 100% scum to a lurker and 2) had no reason to suspect Unforgiven based on the posts he had made until then.
Only later Unforgiven made me highly suspicious and therefore received my FoS. Unforgiven might have started a case but this Suki case is my case. I put a lot of effort into it to explain why he is scummy and pointed out new concerns in his play.
Why can't I be suspicious of both? Why is that mafia play? As both did not receive enough support in their cases we can also assume that they were trying to distance themselves from each other. If you had read my posts closely, you would have seen that I tried to explain this earlier already.
- ALWAYS certain of his reads without any reasoning. - Cautions D1 about how mafia will lurk and then come back for the final hours of the day. What does he do D2? Lurks, then comes back in the final minutes to post this:
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho.
Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused.
You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit.
Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
screams mafia for me.
Believes Vivax town, gives no reasoning (sure because he knows alignments?)
Makes ZERO effort to try and convince anyone, because "there's no time"
Takes the time to finish making that post and talk about other things, rather than why Vivax is town
-Constantly, at the end of a bunch of his posts, asks for people to ask him anything if they don't understand something.+ Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I can get online form my phone, if anyone wants to ask something please make a precise question and i'll try to answer it.
On June 02 2012 04:29 Unforgiven_ve wrote: As always, if anyone has any question please ask
I fully agree and wonder why people aren't voting for him already. He's just throwing non-committing blame around and never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny. If you want to have a textbook Mafia style to analyze, you have one right here... Compare Unforgiven_ve and Suki with each other and tell me Suki is the Mafia of these two. It's probably not both, since they have been antagonizing each other for the whole game.
never risking the chance of being put under real scrutiny?? Really? in every post i say if you have questions just ask!
----- But, when asked to explain his reasoning, we get this --
On June 06 2012 07:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: ##Vote heist, im not gonna spend more time explaining something so obvious
Apart from his Suki "case" and vote, I don't see anything pro-town coming from him. Moreover, I see him harping on the single pro-town thing he's done at every corner. I cannot rationalize how this is town play. I will be voting Unforgiven. Does anyone think he's down anything pro-town apart from poorly push Suki at the start?
I agree with your suspicions on unforgiven, but his play is so ridiculously erratic that I have no clue about his alignment. The obvious thing going for him is the d1 lynch on suki and I would be really surprised if scum actually decided to bus/sacrifice their roleblocker without being sure that we do not have blue roles... That's pretty much the only thing that stops me from voting him off.
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
The roleblocker thing is a good point, and it's one I hadn't considered. That does seem out of place.
I get that his play is erratic, but here's what keeps tripping me up. It's all over the place except helpful. Think...ohh...Anacletus? From our other newbie game. Really erratic posting. Yet it was a mix of scummy stuff and townie stuff constantly. Making ridiculous cases on people, being defensive, getting pissed off at being ignored, etc. (I know you got shot early but I think you read that one out iirc from obsQT).
I don't get that from Unforgiven. I don't ever see him flailing around on the townie side of things after that suki case which didn't even seem like a case.
Gotta think on the roleblocker bit, and WILL be reading over you and Xatalos, and some other stuff.
You are right on the lack of helpful townie seeming stuff. Especially paired up with the lack of activity/interest he shows, it does warrant suspicion. But for now I would much rather go after Xatalos.
Also, the last game we played was simple mayority right? if someone got a higher number of votes he would get lynchedm this system is different, you need half+1
Read my filter and see my post accusing him, his first post he wanted to guide me and kindly told me how the town need it to know my reads When me and soltice got it right, he went apeshit agressive (as far as i remember).
Unlike the super-detectives we have in here (lolz metagame) i want you to read for yourself his filter and his behavior in all the game. Also, Xatalos wants to gain town credit voting for heist, maybe heist doesnt have time to play and he would gladly sacrifice for the team, seeing the game is ending Xatalos wants to assure N2-N3 kill, D3-D4 misslynch
On heist I found his voting scummy. However, I found it odd because he swapped to Unforgiven and that seemed like a play to have a non-Suki candidate in the mix now that Ange was back and did not seem like a legitimate target. However, given that I now feel like I do about Unforgiven, and given that Ange found him scummy while pushing suki (I feel like as her replacement I should try and put myself in her shoes for D1), I'm willing to believe that town could find both suki and unforgiven scummy. Ange happened to find suki scummier at first, voted her, FoSed unforgiven. Heist happened to find Unforgiven scummier early, voted him, then later suki.
I don't find that bussing comment scummy, as I've said.
Therefore, I don't want to vote heist today (However, I'd like for him to, you know, contribute here). However, I sought some non-tunneling coaching, and after considering that, I need to consider a heist lynch. Can you guys give me like...your number 1 reason besides the voting pattern and the bussing comment that you find Heist scummy?
On golden/ShiaoPi Starting with Xatalos's initial post - + Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.
Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him: - golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good. - golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town - golden's defense of suki was really scummy - shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia - shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly
If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.
Golden's posts: Sorry Shiao, you're stuck with them. You/Golden are the same alignment, Ange/I am the same alignment. You got dealt the crappier hand there. Golden DID lightly defend suki early on. However, when I look at the timing, he did so before the convincing cases had been made. I'm going to give him a little credit for that, because he didn't defend suki after suki was really taking a pounding.
ShiaoPi's vote on Vivax: I did the same thing, but didn't publicize it. Heck, I did the same thing in my last newbie game every time I pushed someone that ended up town. Sinking feeling 5-10 minutes before lynch, but telling yourself there's no time to do anything, and if you were sure yesterday, and sure that morning, shouldn't you just listen to past self? At the very least, I don't get anything from this. YES, Shiao could be mafia trying to get cred. OR, Shiao is town and had doubts. Either is plausible.
Suspecting Eishi_Ki - Suki soft defended Eishi_Ki like crazy earlier. One of the more surprising things I found while rereading. Like...3 times or so? Frankly, Eishi_Ki hasn't done much. If his filter was full, Suki's posts wouldn't stand out like they do. With so little to work with on Eishi_Ki, I agree with Shiao that the Suki posts make him look bad. So, I'm not finding Shiao scummy off of that.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
Holy balls. We need 4 to lynch and we've got 2 inactive and 2 mafia.
Also, unforgiven, you are right and I am wrong. Our last newbie game was plurality. We were NOT extended majority and I'm imagining things.
Right now, and maybe it's a bad reason, but the voting itself makes me not like the heist vote. IF both mafia members have voted, that means (because i know I'm town, therefore 2 of the other 4 votes in the game are mafia, yada yada) that there is mafia on heist. If one or both mafia are heist/eishi, then that doesn't hold true.
With extended majority and two players not voting/posting yet, can we ask how the lynch/majority/modkills will work?
Okay. Doesn't seem like a fun situation to host in. But if you could come up with anything, whatever you think is the best way to handle this, it would be most appreciated and helpful. Out of the Xatalos/Shiao cases, I like the case on Xatalos better. Sorry man, you don't look good.
Leaving work now. Right now I am very, very worried about heist and eishi_ki. I don't like early suki/eishi_ki bits. Others think heist is scummy. The door is so wide open for mafia to come in at the last moment and push a townie over the edge, even if just one lurker is mafia. There are so many situations where IF we mislynch, we lose, because 1-2 players could get modkilled.
In light of that, right now I am leaning towards no-lynching. Yes, it's normally suboptimal, but if: (1) one/neither of our no-shows is mafia, (2) anyone other than a mafia member has 2 votes, then (3) it could be game over. Mafia both drop the hammer on the 2-vote player, he has 4, lynched. One or both no-shows get modkilled, maybe. Then the NK. Poof. 2/2 or 1/2, we lose.
If we no lynch and both lurkers are townies, we could still lose. Both could be modkilled, then NK, now it's 2/2, This is awful.
my god, we need to lynch heist! that way we get information, and i dont think mod will kill 2 players at once, we have 1 game day left (2 tops)...he should le them live and see if they comeback
Seriously, this is why I hate lurkers/inactives -.- They just ruin the game for everyone. Why even join if you can't afford the time to post once every 3 days? With so many lurkers, there's simply no way to know who is actively lurking and who is simply being inactive.
I'm still for lynching heist, because he might be just waiting for his time to vote at the last minute. Then again, if he'll just get modkilled, it wouldn't make a difference either way.
If we assume that Eishi_Ki is town and getting modkilled (so inactive, I don't have my hopes up for him appearing...):
A) heist is Mafia and waiting to vote just before the deadline: in this case we should definitely lynch him B) heist is town/Mafia and simply not online: in this case it doesn't matter either way, he'll just get modkilled
Looking at these two options, I see absolutely no harm in lynching heist. He already has 3 votes, and we agreed to lynch every day at the start. austinmcc, your vote for Unforgiven_ve is basically a vote for no-lynch at this point. So why not vote for heist in case situation A happened to be true? A no-lynch would lead to the same result as voting for heist in situation B, but a no-lynch would lead to Mafia victory in case A.
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
On June 08 2012 05:18 Miltonkram wrote: Was away for a bit.
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts?
I agree fully. If we just no-lynch and heist is Mafia waiting for his time to vote, it's GG no matter what. If neither of them is coming back, there's still no harm in lynching heist.
Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
@ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
@ ShiaoPi Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip.
@ austinmcc If heist is scum then we're pretty much set on ShiaoPi being scum. Please vote for heist. If Eishi_Ki is town like I think he is, then our only hope of winning this game is by ensuring a heist lynch.
On June 08 2012 05:50 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip.
On June 08 2012 05:47 ShiaoPi wrote: And if we want to shot into the dark (aka the lurkers) go with eishi...he was soft-defended by suki and has been lurking all game long. Seriously...
Here's why I suggest a mislynch. And this is entirely dependent on both not returning.
If both heist/eishi are town, we lose.
If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist.
If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive.
That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off.
Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure.
Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
On June 05 2012 06:45 Unforgiven_ve wrote: It's too late for me to try and convince you guys to change your votes, i think vivax will flip town, his last post voting for himself doesnt help tho.
Guys, because i think im right about heist, maybe i will die this night, the only thing in my favor is being a terrible poster (they killed s0Lstice for being good=, maybe they want me to be alive to get more people confused.
You are understimating the proof against heist, i still think there's a ver high change that heist and xatalos are mafia, i see they are playing a pretty standard "active" mafia, dodging attacks and siding whit the mayority (not before making his "preference" obvious to the town) triying to gaing some town credit.
Right now i would kill heist, the way he started to play the game and how he acted around the suki lynch are my main motivation. This posts
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read.
screams mafia for me.
I've bolded the important statement. "They want me to be alive to get more people confused." Is this something a townie would say? What are you trying to imply here?
What you are essentially admitting is that you are purposefully following the wrong lead, directing town to the wrong target. If you are town, why are you making remarks that keeping yourself alive will only lead to town confusion?
Okay, back at computer. Going to look hard at heist. Yes, of course I find it convenient that the moment we start tallying votes and whether to lynch or not he returns, just before the deadline.
Sorry, had to leave the computer for a while. Looks like heist returned after all (although I don't know why he didn't wait until the last moment to vote... maybe afraid of austinmcc switching in the end?). austinmcc, please do look hard at heist. There's not much time left and we really need a lynch.
Lol, welcome scum! I was refering “confused“ because (as you say) my bad written post. If there's a no lynch today, my suspicion on xatalos would drop “a lot“ and austinc/shaopi Would be my second choice. There's no way a real townie would be that bad
On June 08 2012 06:34 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol, welcome scum! I was refering “confused“ because (as you say) my bad written post. If there's a no lynch today, my suspicion on xatalos would drop “a lot“ and austinc/shaopi Would be my second choice. There's no way a real townie would be that bad
I'm starting to really hope you're not town. Because I can't place your play if you are. You won't give specific answers, you won't be helpful in trying to push your candidates. Not now, but post game, I'd like to know why you're against the no lynch. I'm still seeing it as the optimal play before heist came back.
In the scenario where we had 2 lurkers, it gave us more time. We either won no matter what, lost no matter what, or had the potential to win either today or tomorrow. The no lynch would have given us the extra day.
In the scenario with 1 lurker, I don't want to waste my time on figuring it out. Lurker town, all town has to be on a mafia. Whoever isn't on that person is the remaining mafia. Lurker mafia, we either win today or go 3/1 or 4/1 tomorrow depending on whether we lynch or no lynch
Okay, here's my thinking. I'm not convinced on heist. But everyone else and their grandma is, and I'm not all that good at reading people in this game yet, from the way my suspicions have flipped in XIII and here.
If we no-lynch, we get an extra day. Always. We have a modkill or no modkill, a NK, and we're back here tomorrow. If we lynch, we've got a chance to win today IF we lynch correctly AND the lurker is scum, we've got a chance to lose today IF we mislynch AND the lurker is town. A mix puts us through to another day.
On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you for once... It's just too obvious that heist is Mafia. Whoever of ShiaoPi/austinmcc is town (most likely austinmcc), I feel ashamed for you -.-
On June 08 2012 06:51 Unforgiven_ve wrote: OP: if there's a no lynch toda, please kill me and reveal my role. I won't make you lose Time whit this horrible players.
Are you serious...
Your play is entirely NOT what a townie would/should be doing.
On June 08 2012 06:58 austinmcc wrote: Alright, fine. We'll keep it simple. Had a lot of people convinced that heist is scum. Both NKs, most people today, etc.
##Unvote ##Vote: heist
Unforgiven, if you flip town I'm not going to be able to believe this
Rnd Guys:Sheriff Sheriff! Sheriff QatolWhat is it this time? Rnd Guys:We found more people! And... well... we screwed up last time but we're really certain this time! Sheriff QatolDidn't you say you were really certain last time and already called the guy confirmed mafia just to see their blood dripping on the floor? Rnd Guys:Yeahyeah, we know, but these dudes have to be mafia. Just look at them. It's like they're sleeping, paralyzed or something like that, they're not even moving or doing a thing! Sheriff Qatol:Wait... this one guy... Didn't you guys drag him to me yesterday as well just to tell me to execute another guy instead? Rnd Guys:Sheeeeeriff. Stop bitchin' around and shoot those two!
heist the Mafia Goon was executed. Eishi_Ki the Vanilla Townie was onehitted by Diablo AGAIN... (modkill) It is now Night. You have about 24 hours time to get your nightactions in! Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00) as always
On June 08 2012 07:17 austinmcc wrote: Going to assume that everyone thinks Shiao is the final mafia?
I'd say it's 99% at this point. He tried to deflect attention away from suki, then he deflected attention away from heist which was an important factor in Vivax being lynched instead of heist, and now he ALMOST (very very close) managed to turn this into a no-lynch -> stalling for time, shooting those who wanted to lynch heist at night, very possibly winning the game by leaving gullible townies alive (sorry to say, austinmcc, I think you belong to this category :/ ).
I'm going to sleep now. I don't really see who could be the final Mafia besides ShiaoPi at this point. Earlier I considered Unforgiven_ve as a Mafia, but his behaviour today (and especially combined with suki's lynch) makes it very, very unlikely. Good night!
On June 08 2012 07:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 2 from 2? Bunch of... Unknow foreigners... Now, this is where it gets really interesting... Xatalos or austincc (aka super-Anacletus)?
I don't think saopi is mafia, its between those two guys
Just before leaving: why austinmcc / me instead of ShiaoPi? Lol? I don't see why you would make that statement as either town or Mafia. Your play is just too confusing to think about. We both ensured the lynch (austinmcc at the last minute, but whatever, he got the job done) while ShiaoPi was very close to success with saving heist. I can't see how he would honestly see heist as town after all this, even advocating a NO-LYNCH of all things to save him... He must be Mafia or this game doesn't make any sense.
On June 08 2012 07:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 2 from 2? Bunch of... Unknow foreigners... Now, this is where it gets really interesting... Xatalos or austincc (aka super-Anacletus)?
I don't think saopi is mafia, its between those two guys
Just before leaving: why austinmcc / me instead of ShiaoPi? Lol? I don't see why you would make that statement as either town or Mafia. Your play is just too confusing to think about. We both ensured the lynch (austinmcc at the last minute, but whatever, he got the job done) while ShiaoPi was very close to success with saving heist. I can't see how he would honestly see heist as town after all this, even advocating a NO-LYNCH of all things to save him... He must be Mafia or this game doesn't make any sense.
Where the hell did I advocate a no-lynch? I said given austins scenario a no-lynch would have been preferable. I was trying to get you lynched xatalos not trying to go for no-lynch. I can understand your suspicions on me now for defending heist that much, but well all I can say to that in regards is my read on him was wrong :D
On June 08 2012 05:47 ShiaoPi wrote: And if we want to shot into the dark (aka the lurkers) go with eishi...he was soft-defended by suki and has been lurking all game long. Seriously...
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
On June 08 2012 08:43 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The thing is...Shaopi defending heist so badly just shows a super bad mafia play, why whould he be so evident? TELL ME SHAOPI WRRYYYYYYYY
I thought heist was town and xatalos scum, therefore my logic was xatalos is trying to mislynch heist. Simple isn't it? And for my quotes regarding lynches/no-lynch please keep them in context. I was not going to move my vote today because the other options heist and you did not convince me. The Vivax mess was a whole other thing. But yeah, you'll lynch me either way or at least Xatalos will make you all lynch me
It's simple Unforgiven, ShiaoPi was hoping to win the game after this lynch period. If Eishi_Ki was scum and we mislynch, then scum win because after the night kill we would be at 2 town and 2 scum. ShiaoPi was trying really hard for the mislynch because he wanted the scum win.
@ ShiaoPi I have to admit that you were really close. At this point there is nothing you can do to convince me you aren't scum. If I were you I would just admit defeat now, but even if you don't I will still come after you if I'm alive come day cycle.
But I don't think Shaopi whould play such an obvious mafia, that's what it bothers me. I did read his filter carefully and its such a clueless townie/ astronomical bad mafia read... I like to think its the first one, now xatalos/austin will confortably wait for a mislynch tomorrow...milton, you or me will die tonight, that's fo sho'
I literally cannot make this any simpler for you. Normally I would wait until the night deadline to post this, but I may not be around then so I am posting this now.
Scum nearly had this game won. If we mislynched and both scum survived we would have lost. ShiaoPi was just about to win the game, he was trying to force town players into a decision between him +heist vs. you + Xatalos. Luckily austinmcc made the correct call. One of us is dying tonight. If it's me I hope you will make the correct move and lynch ShiaoPi.
I think the night kill is going to be Miltonkram. At least that's what I'd do in ShiaoPi's position... But it's just all too WIFOM to think about -.- So not much use to talk about that...
Yeah, if yesterday's lynch had been a mislynch, it would have been already GG (2 town vs 2 Mafia). Even if it had been a no-lynch, it would have been basically GG (shoot Miltonkram -> convince one of austinmcc or Unforgiven_ve to vote for me -> GG). So this game was very, very close: I'm happy austinmcc made the correct choice in the end. As you can see, even a no-lynch would have pretty much meant a 90% win chance for Mafia... Unforgiven_ve, if you still wonder why ShiaoPi defended heist so desperately, there's your answer. I think it's pretty clear and in no way "bad Mafia play". They almost won with a no-lynch, but austinmcc made the right choice, ruining their plan.
I'll have to be offline for some time, but later today I'll be going through ShiaoPi's full filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi) to find every suspicious move he's made up to this point. Especially considering the flips of suki and heist. I don't really see how the last Mafia could be anyone else after yesterday's events. Miltonkram looks like obvious town at this point, I'm quite certain austinmcc is town as well (he could have just won the game for Mafia yesterday if he wanted to, but chose not to), and Unforgiven_ve makes very little sense as Mafia (driving the lynches of suki and heist).
Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail.
I AM NOT MAFIA
To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist?
@Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation.
What I want you to consider: Lynch Xatalos
On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
##Vote: Xatalos
And for the lazy ones:
On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me.
The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it.
EBWOP: Another argument against Xatalos is given the flip of heist, why was he so eager and willing to switch on Vivax day2? It took just a few defensive posts of heist and one from me and Xatalos switched.
On June 08 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail.
I AM NOT MAFIA
To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist?
@Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation.
On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
His next vote is on ange777:
On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:
-snip-
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped--
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.
On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me.
The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
On June 09 2012 02:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Dont worry austin, you just anaclet'ed again this time lol. Always playing for mafia, maybe this time you are one of them !!! *suspense music* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xczxi_49inE
Could you explain why austinmcc would be Mafia over ShiaoPi? I just don't see any sense in that. Read through their filters and give some reasoning, not just random one liners.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.
It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.
To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.
It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.
To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
What's wrong with making a case against you, instead of getting stuck on those arguments of your case we agreed to disagree on? How is it just "discrediting" to make the first actual case against you? I already dissolved some of your arguments, some of them are a matter of opinion which are useless to argue about, and some of them are so clearly wrong (like me wanting to "mislynch" heist all game...) that they're not even worth arguing about. I don't think there's anything more I can add to dissolve those remaining arguments of yours that you would never revert anyway (such as me creating a better & more active discussion atmosphere being "scummy"... what??).
The most disturbing point about this post is that you just flat-out dismiss all the evidence of o.Golden_ne being Mafia, as if it had no relevance to you. It most certainly does - exactly as much as your own posts. But let's move on to your own posts for argument's sake:
- You most definitely sheeped the consensus by going for Vivax. After suki flipped, the majority was for lynching Vivax, especially including the highest town read who had just got the first Mafia lynched (Ange777). It was pretty obvious that Vivax would be the lynch for Day 2 at the time where you named him your main suspect. Not to mention o.Golden_ne's obvious sheeping of both s0Lstice and Miltonkram during Day 1 (and not adding anything of his own).
- You accuse me of switching to Unforgiven_ve (my main suspect from early Day 1) after Ange777 started showing signs of towniness. When heist did the exact same thing, you say it's perfectly logical and reasonable. You accuse me of being the last to vote for suki (even though I most likely typed the vote earlier than heist). When heist voted for suki second-last, you say he "simply stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me". These are just few examples of your screaming inconsistencies regarding your attitude to very similar events (the only real difference being who posted it). There's just no way you would have such a change in your views towards the same events if you were town - and actually honest with your reads.
- Now you're just mispresenting what I said. I never said you wanted a no-lynch, I just said you completely changed your read on Vivax - for a very weak reason. Why would you do that unless you had no faith in Vivax being Mafia in the first place?
- The reason you're wishy-washy is that you're just asking for a chance to do *anything* (even lynching Eishi_Ki or a no-lynch) just to avoid lynching heist. There's no way you'd be so willing to do almost anything except lynch heist, unless you're teamed with him. Especially a no-lynch would be very bad in that situation, almost ensuring a Mafia victory (just changing the situation from 5 town vs 2 Mafia -> 3 town vs 2 Mafia, a very comfortable situation for Mafia).
On June 09 2012 05:01 ShiaoPi wrote: I am talking against a wall with Xatalos (who would have guessed?)
To everyone else still in this game: May I hear your thoughts on this? The only way we can still win this is if we get scum tomorrow and not mislynch.
Just a moment ago you said I'm not "trying to dissolve your arguments" hard enough, yet you give up completely on arguing once I respond. Where is your logic?
He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
Its what all mafia (and bad townies) did every thime i posted something (LOLZ LEARN SUM ENGRISH) ... one of my main reasons to suspect xatalos
So you suspect anyone (austinmcc, me) who thinks your play is confusing? The better course of action would be to read filters and state your reasoning. Didn't it cross your mind that ShiaoPi might just be trying to win your vote by not questioning your plays?
my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.
What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
On June 09 2012 05:16 ShiaoPi wrote: my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.
What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
Hmmm. If you can't defend from those points, just say so clearly. I agree though that I want to see Miltonkram and austinmcc returning before the deadline. Either of them might be shot soon, and if they don't get to say their opinions, there'll be less to talk about tomorrow.
Unforgiven, apart from one post in this thread, nobody has brought up the language issue. You're the only person who keeps mentioning it.
All my stuff with you was that you would post a conclusion with nothing to back it up. That's not a language barrier issue, you just wouldn't explain yourself, and if asked to, you became hostile.
Okay so, here are some thoughts as I do a read through, without addressing the cases. I'm just reading through the thing and giving comments wherever a post of Golden/Shiao or Xatalos sticks out. Very disorganized, but at least I'll get it all out and you can look over it if I'm the night target:
D1 - heist and suki are both pushing cattivik once you hit pg. 7 or 8. Golden also believes cattivik scum, while xatalos defends him. Golden not just saying he's scum, but pushing a scum read on xatalos towards eishi + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 22:40 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Eishi_ki: Consider if Xatalos is scum. This is opinion on Cattivik, who i think is scum.
"Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good."
Food for thought.
Heist and golden continue to just sort of lightly push Cattivik as most of our confirmed townies come in and say they found him townie.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I guess what i'm trying to say is. scumslips will stay on the record, and chances are if they are scumslipping this early they'll continue as time goes on. Lurker however, if not dealt with early in the game where they are less of a % of the team, may end up in the final rounds where the % of town per player is alot higher and the responsibility of town individuals is even higher.
These are my thoughts. more soon. x
Take out the uncertainty, look at the rest of the message. He's not just uncertain of suki, but uncertain because a bandwagon may be forming. Just prior to this, unforgiven posts on suki and votes, sciberbia posts a sizable analysis of suki and votes. Sciberbia notes that three hours have passed since his case and nobody responded. When sciberbia calls attention to the fact that he posted a case and nobody responded, golden jumps to the rescue. He's uncertain of suki because a bandwagon may be forming. Yet the bandwagon is a whopping two votes large, and the second vote came with a sizable analysis of why suki is scummy. That's not a bandwagon. That's a bad excuse from golden to defend suki.
D1 - Xatalos DOES keep changing his reads. And he DOES keep asking for other opinions. See things like - + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 15:07 Xatalos wrote: I have to go offline until the evening, but there's a lot I want to comment on then. I must say I'm not as certain anymore about Unforgiven_ve's guiltiness after reading his latest post. What do you think about that post, s0Lstice and Suki? Did you get that slight townie read from it?
Superouman and Ange777, I REALLY want to hear something from you both soon. If Unforgiven_ve keeps up this style of posting, it would be better to lynch either of you (to at least certainly limit the pool of suspicious and useless lurkers/coasters).
. When Xatalos backs of unforgiven and votes ange there are two votes on ange. Milton and vivax. Milton, I'm calling you confirmed town here, so you've got two townies and xatalos joins. What happens right after catalos drops unforgiven (only he and suki were on unforgiven at that point)? Suki decides to drop unforgiven as well and come over to ange. Either xatalos has the lead in pushing their two votes around or suki realizes that unforgiven isn't going to be a target now that townxat has moved, and moves her vote to keep it relevant and pushing a townie who might get lynched.
So as of now, I'm reading Xatalos town and Golden scummy. Xatalos has moved, but moved with reasons and moved his vote at decent times. He's never the first on maybe, but he gives some reasoning and he's never the last off. Golden has held his vote this whole time, while suki moves around and heist is sitting on superouman.
Ange posts her case on suki. Xatalos responds, saying there are some mistakes, not moving off of suki. He doesn't just tell her the case is wrong though. He says, + Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
. I get a further town read off that. (1) He's responding almost immediately to her case. Not with a very robust defense, but just noting it. (2) He doesn't agree with it, but he's not confrontational about it. His post, if you read it without thinking about the current situation, reads like he feels good about the case, but notes that there are some things Ange might not be taking into account, and then he comes to the bolded part. He sticks Suki's name right next to the word mafia, and asks if she still thinks that Suki is mafia given the other items he brings up. He's openly inviting Ange to post another "Suki is mafia" post, and a stronger one at that. Again, part of the post looks like a soft-defense of Suki, but the post as a whole opens Suki up for more criticism.
Ange has the bit where she FoSes Unforgiven. Xatalos follows her there. Not that odd, considering he'd already pushed unforgiven earlier. Easier to see him moving his vote to a non-ange/suki candidate when he was already on that person. Golden still has yet to (1) vote OR (2) comment on ange's case on suki. heist comes in to push unforgiven, to say he thinks ange and suki are townie. No mention of golden at all, who's the ONLY person yet to vote and hasn't responded to the suki case, one of the few players to do so. Why is heist not suspicious of golden? Thread brings up golden a few times, but he never becomes a giant topic of discussion, so it's not enough for me that heist doesn't call out golden for being absent because some townies fail to do so as well. Neither suki nor heist mentions his absence though.
Okay, there's my D1 stream of consciousness. Looking back at that, I see golden coming off scummy, although the end of the day is ruined a little by his absolute absence. While xatalos moves his vote, I'm not seeing it move in a very scummy way. Moreover, the way that xatalos pushes for further information on suki feels very town to me. Also, as a minor point, I don't like how suki/heist/golden all pushing cattivik early and xatalos is not jumping aboard. Seems like maybe mafia team wanted to set cattivik up, because eishi_ki was suspicious of him, so you've got an easy bandwagon to start pushing.
@ austinmcc I think you're spot on in your assessment of D1. I'll be making a post right before the deadline of why it's extremely unlikely some players are scum and who I think is the correct lynch candidate given the information we have now.
RIGHT at the start of N1, xatalos active. Same minute as the nightpost he mentions the suspense. Then posts what the suki lynch means for other players. If he's scum, why is already moving forward with the information from the suki lynch? Scum should at least be waiting, not coming out within 3 minutes to already start adjusting reads and being proactive.
Later on N1, xatalos pushes ange for further reads. Again, he's asking others for reads, but why would mafia be asking Ange, who helped nail suki, to post her reads? Aren't you hoping she forgets?
D2 - Right after solstice gets killed, Vivax brings up that solstice's case was on heist. First response to that? ShiaoPi comes in to state not that the case was bad but that everyone should be coming to their own opinions.
Okay, I'm stopping this. When I'm looking at ShiaoPi's case, I see Xatalos scummy. When I look at Xatalos's case, I see ShiaoPi as slightly scummy. But if I just look through the first day and the timing on the way things played out, and who responded to what/when/how, I'm seeing golden/ShiaoPi as pretty clearly scummy.
I don't want to waste the last 15 minutes of this night continuing to read through. I'm ready to commit to a ShiaoPi lynch tomorrow.
To unforgiven, if you're here, do my thoughts match up with yours? I agree ShiaoPi was so unwilling to find heist scummy that it almost makes him look town. But if you get rid of that, which is just WIFOM, and you look back before the last day or two, ShiaoPi is looking much, much scummier than Xatalos to me.
Well there goes my last hope for a town win I guess. Looks like you are all ready to lynch me tomorrow. Let's enjoy some while we wait for the nighthit to arrive.
Here are my reads on players, since I think I'm likely getting killed tonight.
Austinmcc/Ange777: Town- Ange777 came back into the D1 lynch discussion with an interesting choice. There was a lot of momentum for either an Unforgiven or a suki lynch. A D1 scum lynch is usually really bad for scum. I have a hard time believing that Ange would come back and bus suki D1 if she were scum. This read makes Ange/Austin confirmed town in my opinion.
Unforgiven: Town- He's become confirmed town to me even though his attitude towards the game and posting content has been really bad. I'm reading him as egoistic townie and not scum. He started pressure on suki, he supported lynching heist. If he were scum he could have sheeped behind ShiaoPi's pressure on Xatalos and either forced a mislynch or a no-lynch. This is directed at you Unforgiven. All of your cases have been OMGUS. Look outside your ego and figure out what's actually been going on in the thread. You've given me the impression that you think this game revolves around you. It doesn't. Please use your brain.
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
ShiaoPi: Scum- He defended both suki and heist. There is definite motive for this. The game is balanced around the typical D1 mislynch so D1 scum lynch is really bad for scum. I can easily see scum panicking and defending each other under such a stressful situation. During the D3 lynch discussion he heavily defended heist. He even defended him despite (sort of) agreeing with me on heist's suspicious disappearance.
Yes, heist disappearance is weird (and fucking frustrating) but still I can't vote off one of my townreads just based on lack of activity...
Notice how he tries to deflect attention from my original point
---snip His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it?
that heist's timing for his sudden disappearance was really suspicious. Instead he uses the words weird and frustrating. If he's town there is no reason to disregard and draw attention away from the fact that heist's play was at least a bit suspicious (it was). His play reeks of scum defending scum and not town defending scum. I won't retread the same points that other players have made besides saying the case against ShiaoPi/Golden is solid. If I'm alive in a few minutes I will stand by it. If I'm dead I hope you all will take note.
Oh, I guess I should address this too. Unforgiven, I'm not mafia.
(1) I'm ange. I made a poor replacement for her, but we're the same alignment. (2) IF my unsure townie bit was an act, I could have kept it going. I was unsure for the last two hours or so, very vocal about it, clearly wavering between options and no lynch. But I dropped it and voted. I could have no lynched, sent the NK through, and started driving Xatalos with ShiaoPi tomorrow, hoping to pick either you or Milton up. (3) Anac flipped town
That's a dumb little summary, waiting for night post.
Sorry Shiao, not once I reread. We shared the exact same opinions, but mine were wrong. More convinced that you were mafia than also wrong, given that everyone else found heist scummy.
And a lot of the early content, before the back and forth cases, seals it for me. Xatalos takes the lynches and tends to push straight forward with them. Golden cautions about a bandwagon on suki before one forms, you caution vivax about solstice's heist case before robust debate has really started.
Sure, there are townie reasons not to run away with solstice's case, but it's too much.
I'm not dead? Well I guess this isn't too surprising either. I can see ShiaoPi doing this to try and convince us that Xatalos is mafia and is trying to force a ShiaoPi mislynch. I can also see Xatalos making the same play to get rid of the only flimsy player. It all ends in... you guessed it... WIFOM!!!
Actually right now thinking about it, maybe I tunneled too hard on Xatalos. Milton also stands out in general inactivity, lack of cases and content. Something to consider for any of you?
@ ShiaoPi I must admit that my status as confirmed townie came about more because of circumstance than actual good play on my part. My reads weren't always great and I did follow other players leads a few times. You're grasping at straws here though.
Back, sorry for being away for a bit. Unforgiven_ve...? Hm. I would have guessed Miltonkram, but whatever, there are just too many layers of mindgames. So not wasting effort on that.
On June 09 2012 07:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Actually right now thinking about it, maybe I tunneled too hard on Xatalos. Milton also stands out in general inactivity, lack of cases and content. Something to consider for any of you?
I really, really doubt it. He has been very open with his opinions and pushed heist with commitment. Although if he is, it would be pretty much GG and well played, I guess. No chance he would be the lynch today! Anyway, it's very unlikely.
I'm going to follow up on my initial case and vote for ShiaoPi. I don't know how it could be anyone else, really.
It's 4 people alive. If I get a pm from every single one that they want to see the flip the moment majority is reached and not just in 48 I will do so. If one or more people want to play the full 48 hours I will make it full 48 hours
As days grew longer and longer the remaining villagers of Liquidia gathered to stay all together, even when sunlight was shining. Over the last couple of days the majority of villagers have been found slaughtered spread all over Liquidia and the fear that whoever wants to see their blood is beginning to outnumber them grew stronger every single day. Today every single one of them gathered in front of Sheriff Qatols office and people started discussing: austinmcc:: This place is a mess. We need to get out of here RIGHT NAO Miltonkram:We can still hold this place as long as we keep sticking together! Their numbers can't be infinite and we already found a couple of them! We can still save this village! austinmcc:Save this village? How do you supposed we do that. We find dead people every single day and noone knows why or who killed them. And we're all that's left! ShiaoPi:Milton's right, we have to do something. We can't run. We don't even know what's after us, right Xatalos? And suddenly people realized Xatalos was not with them. Not exactly. When those 3 looked around they saw him standing on the street some distance away, yet he seemed to be smiling. It was the weirdest smile those 3 have ever seen. Sheriff Qatol got out of his office: What's the deal guys? What's wrong this time? and he saw Xatalos standing over there, not moving, just smiling. Qatol took his gun, aiming at Xatalos but in that very moment Xatalos began to shout:
I have fulfilled your orders Master. The village has been purified
And suddenly the biggest "thing" Qatol has ever seen is standing in front of him. Scared to death he stood there, right in front of "it", paralyzed because of his fear, not able to move for just a second but that second was all "it" needed to finish the job.
Sheriff Qatol was decapitated by Belial himself austinmcc the Vanilla Townie was consumed in darkness ShiaoPi the Vanilla Townie was consumed in darkness Miltonkram the Vanilla Townie was consumed in darkness
Xatalos the Mafia Goon stands victorious besides his Master BelialThe Lord of Lies
Team mafia has won the game. ShiaoPi got lynched, one of the other two got shot and it's 1v1 => mafia win!
Thanks for hosting Toad, and thanks for the warnings about playing two games at once. Definitely shouldn't have committed to that, but I hate seeing so many modkills
On June 09 2012 08:24 austinmcc wrote: Nooooooooooooooo.
GG all, and quite well played Xatalos.
Ange sorry for soiling your good name!
nub
Yup, definitely still new. And my reads were wrong. But a smiley face doesn't make up for the fact that you were a dick this game and didn't help with the town environment.
Oh and btw sorry for those 2 modkills but with already 2 replacements and 3 people who were in danger of being modkilled multiple times (heist got back every time, don't know if that was on purpose lol) I really couldn't keep on replacing people all the time
On June 09 2012 08:39 ShiaoPi wrote: Just a general question was heist that obvious as scum? I feel really bad for having defended him all day
I had my eye on him, and wanted to see what he did around lynch time. His tunneling of Unforgiven was all the confirmation I needed for my read.
In some coaching PM's, Marvellosity mentioned to me that it was more likely that people would be confused by his eventual vote on suki, so I don't think you should be tarred and feathered or anything ;D
Also I want to take the time to say a BIG thank you to both Marvellosity and Mementoss for their helpful coaching. It is such a wonderful resource, and I encourage everyone to make use of it if you play in further newbie games.
Oh btw in case people have not realized: It was the boring 9 VT set-up. No Town PR and the roleblocker could not do a thing. The nights were booooring with nothing to do.
I'd like to see some sort of analysis on how the game went... Maybe from Toad? I feel pretty good now, although I had some luck on my side (2 modkills, ShiaoPi misreading heist...). Although I feel pretty sad that suki was lynched Day 1 and heist was basically a "confirmed Mafia" for most of the game. It would have been more interesting if our whole team had been more hidden and there weren't any modkills :/ Anyways, a really fun game! I can't play anymore for some time (going to military service in less than a month now) but I'll be sure to play again later on
On June 09 2012 08:26 sciberbia wrote: NOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm so upset about this. gg xatalos and mafia
Sorry sciberbia... If you read the MafiaQT, you'll see that I picked you on purpose to "buddy" and make you blind to me being Mafia A viable tactic, although a bit unfair for you. It worked very well in my previous game as Mafia, so I used it in this game to a very large extent (Vivax, sciberbia, austinmcc, Miltonkram...).
Btw, I encourage you all to read the MafiaQT. Some really funny moments there! :D
Yup, big thanks to the coaches. Mementoss, I didn't use you, but I'll assume your coaching was as good as Marv's. He managed to be really helpful without giving away or hinting at his own reads.
When I was reading over the setups pre-game, the all VT set-up sounded so much worse than the others. I was pleasantly surprised by how it worked out though, didn't actually notice the power roles lacking while playing. All it did was seem to confirm sciberbia, if anyone had suspicions, because of his comment on what Suki's roleblocker flip meant for the setup.
Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
On June 09 2012 08:55 Xatalos wrote: Haha, I'm surprised the ObsQT didn't figure me out until the very end. It was pretty obvious though after I shot Unforgiven_ve...
I had you figured out sooner than that ;D
Here's a PM to Marvel:
To: marvellosity [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Newbie Mini XV Date: 6/8/12 09:32 I must confess I as a spectator I haven't been as studious.
Austin- I'm fairly certain he is town, based on ange's actions against suki. Plus he could have caused a no-lynch day 3 without much effort or risk, but chose not to. Must be town.
Milton- I think he is town as well. I've seen him play scum and this doesn't look like that. He has made a case on Ange that was not without sound reasoning at the time. He pursued Heist when he could have just as easily blended in on another target if he was scum.
Unforgiven- I am perplexed. He has reduced himself to insulting people and just giving orders like 'do this, do that.' If he is scum, he bussed both of his teammates (very unlikely). What's more, he was the first guy to attack suki. Despite his confusing play, I think he must be town.
That leaves ShiaoPi and Xatalos.
The obvious answer is ShiaoPi based on how he refused to vote for heist. Also, he replaced Golden, who weakly tunneled someone who I read as strong town. Making a case on Vivax is easy peasy for scum, because he was playing recklessly/aggressively. That said, he really was trying to hunt scum. He made reads and pursued them, though his conclusions always appeared wrong to me. He has been constant and steadfast in his defense of heist, which would be REALLY odd if they were scum teammates. My conclusion here is that he is a misguided townie. I've also seen his townie play, and this looks pretty similar.
I think the last scum is Xatalos. I think he wisely bussed heist, and got some mad townie cred for doing so. With people like Unforgiven being generally confusing and anti-town, and ShiaoPi strongly defending a guy who just flipped scum, he can bus heist and watch while those two get lynched next. He was the last to vote for suki, and was, like heist, pushing Unforgiven to suck votes away from suki on day 1.
His direct interactions with heist are also strange. He votes for him on the day vivax is going to be lynched, but votes vivax in the end. He gets town cred for voting heist when he eventually flipped scum, and doesn't get a lot of blame for lynching vivax since he was a driving force for it. This is an excellent bus, he doesn't hurt his teammate too badly and also helps himself a lot. Also, over the course of the game he was posting a lot of non-content content. His only real scum hunt was Unforgiven...another very easy case to make with the language barrier and his confusing posts.
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Nova_Terra 05-31-2012 01:30 AM ET (US)
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
On June 09 2012 08:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
Indeed o.Golden_ne wasn't the easiest player to replace... You got a bit unlucky in that regard. You were in a very bad spot in the end, but maybe you could have pulled something off (why would you shoot Unforgiven_ve if you were Mafia? why would you link yourself so strongly with heist if you were both Mafia?).
On June 09 2012 08:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
Xatalos did a really good job the last couple of days. The only thing that was lacking in his play was the late bus-timing d1. If people would have looked back at d1 and how votes ended up being I feel like it could have been possible. Convincing people to lynch Xatalos based on what he posted seemed pretty hard. Especially the stuff later on because he bussed heist hardcore and people probably ended up having different reads on him based on exactly what they were looking at.
It was 4 people alive, which means 3 people needed to lynch. A NL might have been possible but that would have given Xatalos the possiblity to shoot into someone who is generally more willing to lynch him as well. So in general with only 3 townies alive and 3 votes needed for a lynch I really doubt town stood a chance the last day anyways.
On June 09 2012 08:55 Xatalos wrote: Haha, I'm surprised the ObsQT didn't figure me out until the very end. It was pretty obvious though after I shot Unforgiven_ve...
I had you figured out sooner than that ;D
Here's a PM to Marvel:
To: marvellosity [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Newbie Mini XV Date: 6/8/12 09:32 I must confess I as a spectator I haven't been as studious.
Austin- I'm fairly certain he is town, based on ange's actions against suki. Plus he could have caused a no-lynch day 3 without much effort or risk, but chose not to. Must be town.
Milton- I think he is town as well. I've seen him play scum and this doesn't look like that. He has made a case on Ange that was not without sound reasoning at the time. He pursued Heist when he could have just as easily blended in on another target if he was scum.
Unforgiven- I am perplexed. He has reduced himself to insulting people and just giving orders like 'do this, do that.' If he is scum, he bussed both of his teammates (very unlikely). What's more, he was the first guy to attack suki. Despite his confusing play, I think he must be town.
That leaves ShiaoPi and Xatalos.
The obvious answer is ShiaoPi based on how he refused to vote for heist. Also, he replaced Golden, who weakly tunneled someone who I read as strong town. Making a case on Vivax is easy peasy for scum, because he was playing recklessly/aggressively. That said, he really was trying to hunt scum. He made reads and pursued them, though his conclusions always appeared wrong to me. He has been constant and steadfast in his defense of heist, which would be REALLY odd if they were scum teammates. My conclusion here is that he is a misguided townie. I've also seen his townie play, and this looks pretty similar.
I think the last scum is Xatalos. I think he wisely bussed heist, and got some mad townie cred for doing so. With people like Unforgiven being generally confusing and anti-town, and ShiaoPi strongly defending a guy who just flipped scum, he can bus heist and watch while those two get lynched next. He was the last to vote for suki, and was, like heist, pushing Unforgiven to suck votes away from suki on day 1.
His direct interactions with heist are also strange. He votes for him on the day vivax is going to be lynched, but votes vivax in the end. He gets town cred for voting heist when he eventually flipped scum, and doesn't get a lot of blame for lynching vivax since he was a driving force for it. This is an excellent bus, he doesn't hurt his teammate too badly and also helps himself a lot. Also, over the course of the game he was posting a lot of non-content content. His only real scum hunt was Unforgiven...another very easy case to make with the language barrier and his confusing posts.
so yea, I'm going with Xatalos
It's a good thing I shot you first then, don't you think?
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
Heh... You were pretty much 100% correct all along, but you kept insulting people and throwing random one liners, so nobody listened to you. You need to retain your reading skills and seriously work on how you convey your reads...
On June 09 2012 08:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Thanks solstice at least a bit of consolation I feel I got really badly set up by Goldens post though. Sooo annoying to be unable to respond to these, guess that's the downside of replacing. and I almost forgot to thank marvellosity for some great coaching!
To the more veteran players was there still a chance to convince town on the last day? I felt really frustrated and helpless
Xatalos did a really good job the last couple of days. The only thing that was lacking in his play was the late bus-timing d1. If people would have looked back at d1 and how votes ended up being I feel like it could have been possible. Convincing people to lynch Xatalos based on what he posted seemed pretty hard. Especially the stuff later on because he bussed heist hardcore and people probably ended up having different reads on him based on exactly what they were looking at.
It was 4 people alive, which means 3 people needed to lynch. A NL might have been possible but that would have given Xatalos the possiblity to shoot into someone who is generally more willing to lynch him as well. So in general with only 3 townies alive and 3 votes needed for a lynch I really doubt town stood a chance the last day anyways.
Yeah, I agree. The votes during Day 1 were the key to figuring me out. That was my big mistake, not bussing suki when I needed to Although I had some luck: Vivax behaved pretty much the same way as me, although more suspiciously, even though he was town.
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Nova_Terra 05-31-2012 01:30 AM ET (US)
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
Heh... You were pretty much 100% correct all along, but you kept insulting people and throwing random one liners, so nobody listened to you. You need to retain your reading skills and seriously work on how you convey your reads...
Well, i had to login a lot form my phone, and honestly i lost interest at some point, i think it was after VIvax was lynched, you can show the way to someone, but you cant walk it for them.
Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote: Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
On June 05 2012 11:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To austincc. His post shows a pretty standard townie play, his reasoning defending suki were valid for a Newbie townie, his actitude and his defense were good enoguh for me, the problem here is We are dealing whit a bunch of a sheeps who let mafia (read heist- xatalos) lead their way of thought, They are triying since the begginingg of the game to take town leadership whit lame posts and triying to look helpful, their starting strategy (I'm sure) Was to be in the spotlight and when the town chooses a innocent just let them go for it whitout commiting too much. Compare day1 and day2 around Lynch time. See their voting pattern.
Heist is mafia, I'm 75% sure about xatalos
Nova_Terra 05-31-2012 01:30 AM ET (US)
Unforgiven just called for a town leader. if you have the time heist, i would try to take up this role. you shouldnt say that you want to be this leader, but you should make yourself it by making some analysis that looks pretty and by commenting on and criticizing other people. Try to sound nice thoughg, very important especially in a newbie game, as you can get lynched for being mean.
Heh... You were pretty much 100% correct all along, but you kept insulting people and throwing random one liners, so nobody listened to you. You need to retain your reading skills and seriously work on how you convey your reads...
Well, i had to login a lot form my phone, and honestly i lost interest at some point, i think it was after VIvax was lynched, you can show the way to someone, but you cant walk it for them.
You didn't really contribute before that either, though. You just announced your opinions as fact and left it at that. In hindsight, you were right, but you HAVE to convince the rest. It's just not enough to have the correct reads to win in this game. Insulting them and posting confusing stuff only turns them against you. And where did you get your reads anyway? Through OMGUS? I have to admit you acted as a scum-magnet, we all tried to get you lynched
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The ridiculous aggresiveness im getting from Xatalos got me thinking about 2 things, he's just a really bad townie triying to use his ubber skills...or just a mafia playing in a pretty risky way (metagame uh?) I confess deep inside me i think its the first option, just a bad townie, contradiction and all, thats what my personal experience dictates.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!!! :D This is so true by the way... I played in a "pretty risky way (metagame uh?)" exactly as you thought
On June 09 2012 09:17 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Well, i had to login a lot form my phone, and honestly i lost interest at some point, i think it was after VIvax was lynched, you can show the way to someone, but you cant walk it for them.
The reason we got on your case is because you didn't "show the way." Pretty quickly you started posting one liners and conclusions without much else. When you argued your side, you never did so constructively.
And it wasn't just the loss the one-liners after you lost interest, because you got called out for being an asshole N1.
On June 01 2012 09:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The ridiculous aggresiveness im getting from Xatalos got me thinking about 2 things, he's just a really bad townie triying to use his ubber skills...or just a mafia playing in a pretty risky way (metagame uh?) I confess deep inside me i think its the first option, just a bad townie, contradiction and all, thats what my personal experience dictates.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!!! :D This is so true by the way... I played in a "pretty risky way (metagame uh?)" exactly as you thought
Yeah, if people kept it simple (as i say at the beggining of the game) and if we didnt have 8273467 lurkers, it would have been gg at D3
On June 09 2012 09:17 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Well, i had to login a lot form my phone, and honestly i lost interest at some point, i think it was after VIvax was lynched, you can show the way to someone, but you cant walk it for them.
The reason we got on your case is because you didn't "show the way." Pretty quickly you started posting one liners and conclusions without much else. When you argued your side, you never did so constructively.
And it wasn't just the loss the one-liners after you lost interest, because you got called out for being an asshole N1.
We're all just making it up? Both scum AND town thought you were disruptive and anti-town?
On June 02 2012 10:33 s0Lstice wrote: This is the last I'm going to say on this. It has nothing to do with this Mafia game. I'm even going to spoiler it. Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Do you see anybody else here calling other people names? Want to know why it's just you? Because you're being an asshole. Assholes insult people, and then tell them not to take it personal, like that makes it ok. This being a game doesn't give you license to be condescending and disrespectful. In fact, it's the opposite. If you want respect, you show respect. I can't speak for everyone else, but for me, you have made this game less fun with your recent posts.
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote: Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
I thought throwing out WIFOM would have looked like grasping at straws :D
On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote: Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.
You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.
I thought throwing out WIFOM would have looked like grasping at straws :D
Well, basically yeah. Your fate was almost sealed when heist flipped. I'm not sure what I would've done in your situation, although I wouldn't have wanted to get there in the first place (defending alone someone whom everyone else thought was Mafia..?). It didn't help that you inherited such a bad filter from o.Golden_ne...
I was quite busy playing myself while hosting this and only checked for what's in the posts while reading them really fast Haven't kept up with why people did things that much
Marv probably has a better idea on what actually happened lol
On June 02 2012 10:33 s0Lstice wrote: This is the last I'm going to say on this. It has nothing to do with this Mafia game. I'm even going to spoiler it. Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Do you see anybody else here calling other people names? Want to know why it's just you? Because you're being an asshole. Assholes insult people, and then tell them not to take it personal, like that makes it ok. This being a game doesn't give you license to be condescending and disrespectful. In fact, it's the opposite. If you want respect, you show respect. I can't speak for everyone else, but for me, you have made this game less fun with your recent posts.
He was spot on.
Agreed... Although, in a way, Unforgiven_ve destroyed some of the atmopshere -> made our job easier, it still wasn't enjoyable. I would take subtle disruption of the thread (by Mafia) over insults and useless one liners (by town) any day.
Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
I was quite busy playing myself while hosting this and only checked for what's in the posts while reading them really fast Haven't kept up with why people did things that much
Marv probably has a better idea on what actually happened lol
Okay Well, some other veteran wanting to make an analysis? Although it would have been most useful right now, before many of the players leave the thread and never look back
On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote: Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha
On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote: Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha
By putting too much confidence in your reads xD but yeah dug myself a really nice grave there ^^
You just didn't really have an option. It WOULD have looked like grasping at straws, but that would have been all scum Shiao had. You bringing up Milton felt the same way.
Btw, I was considering shooting Miltonkram for a while. In hindsight, I'm VERY glad I decided to shoot Unforgiven_ve I was worried about the WIFOM after Unforgiven_ve's night kill, but it was just that, WIFOM. It wouldn't almost certainly threaten the ShiaoPi mislynch. You two were already convinced he was Mafia at that point.
On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
Too bad suki and heist aren't around now. Well, they'll have a pleasant surprise when they read this thread Both sacrificed their lives, especially heist, for us to create that ideal endgame scenario. It was all worth it in the end
I would do some analysis but it's probably skewed knowing the rolelist from the start -_-
Also unforgiven's reads were pretty impressive, but his problem was that he couldn't convince town. Need to work on communicating your thoughts better ^^ (ofc this could be due to language issues)
I'll post a little more later, but I personally believe town would have won this if not for the modkills. Put you guys in a really rough spot
My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game: - 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches - In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred - We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance - imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game. - finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play - Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all). - Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame - Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
I'm here, I've been watching pretty much the entire game and taking part in the Obs QT.
I wanted to say that my vote switch to Ange on day 1 was because I was going to be out for the rest of the day, and I wouldn't be on to convince people of my read. I think a lot of people read into that switch more than it should have but it's my fault I didn't say it =D At best it would have kept me alive until Day 2, though. Too much evidence against me :>
Also, I thought we had thrown the game when both heist and xatalos kinda panicked and tried to save me.. it definitely got heist killed but Xatalos managed to spin his actions well. So kudos to xatalos.
Finally, thanks to everyone for making my first mafia game such a nerve-wracking experience. I don't think I had a good night's sleep once the game started, my mind was just so consumed with figuring out how to best play. When I logged on and saw that I was lynched on Day 1, I was surprised but also incredibly relieved. Hahaha.
It's interesting I didn't indict Xatalos for the same reason I did Heist. I think it was probably because he was attacking Unforgiven along with me, and as sciberbia said, his filter was looking pretty town.
Something else important is the danger of making connection assumptions before a flip. I think I auto cleared Xatalos based on my suspicion of heist, because no two scum are going to tunnel the same target to stop their scumbuddy from being lynched, right? And again, he was also attacking my target at the time.
Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD
Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
@ suki I know how you feel. I got picked for scum in my first game too. I know what it feels like to be on the wrong end of sciberbia's analysis. He caught a scumslip by me D1 but couldn't get the lynch. I seriously don't think that guy has ever pointed the town wrong.
On June 09 2012 11:47 s0Lstice wrote: Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
Yep Connections are really too WIFOM to base your reads on (Mafia can distance each other, defend each other, bus each other, push the same lynch, push different lynches... you never really know how they're connected!).
On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD
Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
Thanks Although you should also note that I made mistakes earlier in the game: defended suki visibly (should have bussed in that situation), moderated the thread too much compared to real contributions (look at sciberbia or s0Lstice, they played town correctly), jumped too easily to switch from heist to Vivax (should have shown more commitment to my Mafia read on heist)... Don't make such mistakes and you should be good to go, haha
On June 09 2012 11:28 sciberbia wrote: My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game: - 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches - In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred - We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance - imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game. - finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play - Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all). - Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame - Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
Yeah - I was really surprised by how well the town played! Especially during Day 1, the discussion was extremely active and focused, compared to almost any other game I've played/seen. But the same can be said for Mafia - suki played extremely well for her first game of Mafia, heist played well despite having a long break from Mafia, and of course I managed to convince everyone ShiaoPi was Mafia and win the game xD Haha... Overall, I think this might be at least the newbie game of highest quality I've played/seen so far.
The sad part about this game was, as you said, the modkills and lurking by some players. Had Superouman and Eishi_Ki actually played the game they signed up for, there would have been an additional lynch to use on me after ShiaoPi flipped. BUT I think it's stupid to think like that. If we go to such a hypothetical situation, we could also imagine that suki not being offline for the end of Day 1 would have probably saved her from the lynch (or at least made it easier for us to coordinate and not be exposed like that). If heist hadn't been offline for most of the game (except right before deadlines, haha!!), we might have gotten another mislynch before I had to bus heist. So, it's (IMO) stupid to assume that if the players had been more active, town would have won in the end, since the same can be said for the activity of our Mafia team. All in all, if every player in the game had been active, I'm pretty certain suki wouldn't have been the Day 1 lynch (or at least the lynch wouldn't have exposed me and heist) and the game after that would have been VERY different in many ways.
Indeed, the night kills were very telling. It's good not to base your reads on them, but they should be taken into account at least.
Unforgiven Your language skills were fine. Really, they were. Understandable and they made sense, if thats what you were worried about. Why did you not make lots of big analysis? Why not push your reads further? I mean you were pretty much confirmed all game. There was NO RISK if you made lots of cases. Instead, you spent your time giving snappy 1 liners in a tone that nobody would want to listen to. Your reads were perfect, but nobody will listen to someone who comes across as a jerk.
On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote: Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages.
Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him.
It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that.
austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^
unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote: Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages.
Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him.
It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that.
austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^
unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
Don't brag too much, hey You only figured out I was scum because you helped me in a previous game as town... And you also thought Unforgiven_ve was scum... I agree though on Unforgiven_ve, good reads aren't everything, you need much more!
tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
On June 10 2012 01:51 marvellosity wrote: tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
Haha, I'll be sticking around Marv. Gonna keep it to one game at a time, and probably try Newbie XVII over another full game, but I'm enjoying it despite the incorrect reads. Happy to keep discussing this, I feel like I lost out on some of the game from replacing in, but not enough that I can't learn a bunch from it.
Also, to anyone, the NK stuff kept bugging me since this game ended. I SHOULD have brought it up in thread, and we could have at least discussed it. But I'd like to work through the reasoning, because I didn't like using the NK to factor into the decision.
Either Xat is or Shiao is scum. Neither wants to NK the other, need them alive for the lynch. So they're left choosing between Milton, unforgiven, and me.
I figured I'd be kept up because I'd been so unsure, so I looked like a swing vote that could be convinced one way or the other. For scum ShiaoPi, I had the same read as he did on golden and had found Xatalos scummier than ShiaoPi. For scum Xatalos, I'd come over to lynch heist, and seeing him flip would probably make me rethink my reads and lynch ShiaoPi.
That leaves Unforgiven and Milton. Xatalos needs to shoot Unforgiven, because Unforgiven was looking between he and I for the final scum. ShiaoPi needs to shoot Milton, who was sure the final mafia was Shiao, and can't shoot Unforgiven, because Unforgiven indicated he'd be willing to jump on the Xatalos lynch.
Given that, should I have actually factored the NK in? I figured each player had such an obvious target that the NK was pure WIFOM. Scum Option A's optimal target got NKed, but the target was obvious to Scum Option B, but it was obvious that it was obvious, etc. etc.
Xatalos, thanks for pointing out the mistakes you think you made. It's always interesting seeing where mafia feel like they went wrong. Looking back I definitely didn't put enough pressure on you. I saw a few things that I thought were scummy, but I didn't have much faith in my scumhunting abilities.
I think that, in an optimal metagame, you adjust your own reads by giving a bit of weight to the reads of people who were NK'd. Of course, you don't entirely base decisions off of NKs. But if you choose to always completely ignore them, mafia will just always kill people with good reads and influence the game in their favor. That's not a metagame in equilibrium. Given that metagame, town should start to put a lot of stock into NKs, which would force mafia to start being less predictable, which would force town to only put a little stock in NKs, which is a more balanced metagame. This is why putting stock into the NK of unforgiven makes sense.
It was clear to me that whichever 3 townies were remaining on the last day might WIFOM around a bit, but ultimately would not switch their reads based on the NK. I think this was clear to everyone, which is both why we got screwed over, and why you can consider the NK of unforgiven evidence against Xatalos.
It was pretty obvious that the final lynch was going to be between Xatalos and Shiaopi. If neither of them were mafia, town had pretty much no chance, so you might as well assume it was one of them. Here were the primary targets: Xatalos: targets Shiaopi Milton: targets Shiaopi austinmmc: targets Shiapoi unforgiven: targets Xatalos shiapoi: targets Xatalos
If we are assuming that nobody gives any weight to the NK, then a NK of milton/austinmcc will be 50% Xatalos lynch, 50% shiaopi lynch a NK of ufnorgiven will be 100% shiaopi lynch
There's no way in hell that a mafia shiaopi would NK unforgiven at the end. No way. He's not going to bet the game that you guys suddenly put a ton of stock into NK analysis when you had previously shown no interest. He'd rather settle for his 50/50 chances that unforgiven would be more stubborn than miltonkram/austinmcc (not a bad bet).
On the other hand, a kill of unforgiven makes perfect sense for Xatalos. Based on everyone's behavior up to the end of the game, it was a pretty safe bet that you guys were going to just say WIFOM and ignore the NK, assuring a shiaopi lynch.
Hence, the NK unforgiven is good evidence against Xatalos, given our unstable metagame of always ignoring NKs
The underlying problem IMO is the refusal throughout the game to analyze NKs at all. I think WIFOM is very misunderstood/misapplied there. If we had shown interest in analyzing NKs from the start, Xatalos might have thought twice about killing Unforgiven at the end. And even if he had, we might have lynched him. Admittedly, it could work against us if Shiaopi is mafia and makes the risky move to kill unforgiven. But this meta is obviously better than letting mafia control us by ignoring their NKs.
@Xatalos, miltonkram I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
On June 10 2012 08:46 sciberbia wrote: @Xatalos, miltonkram I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
I might have made a mistake by playing such a townie Mafia... Now when I'm really town, everyone will assume I'm Mafia anyways! xD Damn........
@Xatalos What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
On June 10 2012 09:21 sciberbia wrote: @Xatalos What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
On June 10 2012 19:58 marvellosity wrote: austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
That's a good point in general, but doesn't really apply to this specific situation (in my opinion). I had intentionally urged Miltonkram and austinmcc to make their opinions clear before the night deadline - apparently to "help" them by having their opinions known before they might be killed, but I had a more sinister motive...
Once they had gone through the filters, read the cases, and finally formed their opinions (before Unforgiven_ve would be shot) they were set on lynching ShiaoPi as soon as the deadline passed. It didn't matter anymore that it wouldn't make sense for ShiaoPi to shoot Unforgiven_ve: they just dismissed it as WIFOM by ShiaoPi (meant to make them second-guess).
On the other hand, if they had waited until the deadline to form their final opinion, it might have gone differently. But since they both were online and willing to announce their lynch of choice *before* the night kill, I was pretty certain they wouldn't bend on their opinions anymore!
In this situation, it would make no sense to shoot austinmcc. Unforgiven_ve had already said he would be willing to vote for only me / austinmcc. There's no way he would have voted for ShiaoPi. If I had shot austinmcc, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve would have immediately voted for me. I and Miltonkram would have voted for ShiaoPi. It would have been a stalemate with neither side attaining the majority.
Unforgiven_ve was extremely stubborn and wouldn't listen to any reasoning by me or Miltonkram. He wouldn't state any reasoning himself either: he would just vote for me and continue to post insults and random one liners. ShiaoPi would most certainly not vote for himself either in that situation. That leaves two options:
A) Miltonkram bends to the peer pressure and votes for me. I lose.
B) Miltonkram doesn't bend. The day ends with a no-lynch. I now must shoot Unforgiven_ve or lose, but Miltonkram will think twice as hard about the night kill compared to if I had just shot Unforgiven_ve earlier. I might win or I might lose, but the game takes a lot longer and my chance for victory is smaller. There's also a bigger chance that someone finds more scummy stuff about my filter and Miltonkram gets convinced I'm actually Mafia. Town has more time to discuss and consider the options.
I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so.
He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case.
Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end.
Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there
On June 10 2012 22:50 Vivax wrote: I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so.
He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case.
Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end.
Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there
On the other hand, Miltonkram and austinmcc would have been even more suspicious of ShiaoPi (if he had tried to WIFOM with the night kill, I mean). It was pretty much GG when Miltonkram and austinmcc made their opinions clear right before the deadline. After that, they were set on lynching ShiaoPi, and it would have required a massive blunder by me to lose... Pretty much
@Xatalos I think the NK on unforgiven was certainly your best move at that point, for the reasons you stated. I think I posted something in the obs QT about it before the kill. Yes, it would make me and marv more suspicious of you, but our opinions weren't the ones that counted.
@marv My point is that the NK of unforgiven is evidence against Xatalos (to us) precisely because none of the remaining townies would realize it's evidence against Xatalos, even though it clearly helped Xatalos.
So yes, xatalos was essentially claiming scum to the obs QT, but the remaining townies, based on their behavior and unstable metagame, were clearly going to lynch shiopi. This is what xatalos was counting on and he was right.
What needed to happen from town's POV is this: miltonkram/austinmcc think to themselves: now hold on a minute. It's pretty obvious that we're going to ignore the NK. Would scum really bet the game that we suddenly put faith into NKs? Highly doubtful. So we actually should base our decision off the NK given the current meta.
But Xatalos wisely gambled that milton/austinmcc would not suddenly realize the error of their ways. It's an odd situation because the metagame is unstable. See below.
@all simplified hypothetical instructive scenario Imagine there are four players left heading into night phase: Unforgiven, Miltonkram, Shiaopi, and Xatalos. Assume Unforgiven and Miltonkram are confirmed innocents, that Unforgiven wants to lynch Xatalos, and that miltonkram wants to lynch shiaopi.
Who does mafia xatalos kill? Here we have complete and total WIFOM. Does he kill the player accusing him or the one defending him. But as we will see, just because this is WIFOMy doesn't mean you can ignore it as a townie.
The relevant question is: how do we expect the remaining townie to react to the NK? In this game, the prevailing logic seems to be "Shit this is the almighty WIFOM. Best play is to ignore WIFOM and proceed with the game as before". The problem with this logic is that if you always do this, then mafia will just NK the player accusing them, and win 100% of the time.
Clearly, town's logic is bad in this scenario. You can't be so predictable and easily manipulated. You'd do much better to flip a coin on the last day, and even better to figure out how the mafia would think you would react, and to do the opposite. It's a battle of wits.
WIFOM is really misunderstood and misapplied. You can't just throw out all evidence that is WIFOMy. It's all about predicting your opponent's moves while being unpredictable yourself.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
On June 11 2012 02:31 sciberbia wrote: Just thought of a simpler way to state this.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
or C) not announce your reads before the NK
Option A was pretty much impossible in that situation. Unforgiven_ve would never listen to anyone other than himself, and Miltonkram was very convinced that ShiaoPi was Mafia. austinmcc might have been vulnerable to persuasion, but he was also pretty sure ShiaoPi was Mafia. There would be no consensus lynch with such radical differences in opinion.
Option B sounds very reasonable. Town would have probably won the game if it didn't condemn WIFOM and NK analysis as completely useless right away. This allowed us to kill our most dangerous opposers without fear. More importantly, not being so opposed to WIFOM would have made it impossible for me to win the endgame scenario. I considered shooting Miltonkram or austinmcc for WIFOM reasons, which would have made it much harder (or nearly impossible) for me to get ShiaoPi lynched... But I didn't really have to, because everyone hated WIFOM! Following a strict policy makes it so much easier to manipulate the game without fear of consequences.
Option C is... interesting. Although, realistically, not useful in this case. I already could tell from Unforgiven_ve's earlier posts that he would come after me instead of ShiaoPi, and both Miltonkram and austinmcc had made it clear that they linked heist&ShiaoPi as a potential Mafia team. They didn't really even need to post their reads before the deadline... I just urged them to do that in order to lock them even more into their set opinions. I agree, though, that if everyone said something like "okay, I won't speak anything during night to make the NK harder to choose", it would have made it harder for me to decide. Perhaps someone (austinmcc, specifically) had changed his opinion during the night...? Should I shoot him instead? But I would have still ended up shooting Unforgiven_ve, so only option B is really useful
Vivax, I really tried to get austin and milton on to my side, but even before the NK they had already decided to lynch me the following day, I really doubt I could have changed any of their minds given the fact how bad Golden's posts and my defense of heist reflected on me.
Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.
Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.
On June 11 2012 06:37 austinmcc wrote: Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.
Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.
On June 11 2012 06:37 austinmcc wrote: Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.
Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.
Would bringing up the NK really have helped?
Can't have hurt. Take a look at Newbie VI endgame, starting here.
The context being the other townie was super suspicious of me, not the scum. But I got the scum lynched purely by talking about the night kill.
I guess couldn't have hurt is true, because we got the worst outcome possible, but, at least to me, you shouldn't have been the one to bring up that discussion.
I agree that we should have discussed it, but I think the context in which the NK was brought up was very important. Had milton or I initiated discussion, we discuss. But had you initiated the discussion, I think I would have been more dismissive of the idea because it was one of scum ShiaoPi's ways to handle the NK - kill milton/me OR kill unforgiven and bring it up. So for me, it's a failure on our part, but not yours.
@Xatalos I agree option B (just reacting to he NK unpredictably) is most practical and universally applicable.
@shiaopi Honestly, if you bring up the NK yourself, I think it would just make you look even more scummy, but I guess as marv said, it couldnt't have hurt. Ideally austinmcc/miltonkram would begin to question the NK themselves, but it didn't look likely that they would (which is why Xatalos killed unforgiven to begin with), so I thought you would surely be lynched no matter what you said.
Based on my reads, we were honestly in serious trouble after we mislynched vivax because we couldn't afford any more mislynches, Xatalos didn't look particularly scummy, you did, and we had no blue information. IMO, the excellent scumread on Xatalos by Unforgiven was the only reason we had a chance, and we almost pulled it off, but it was a tough game to win. It was basically 6 VT vs 3 goons, but worse.
@ sciberbia Note taken. From here on out I won't immediately discount evidence just because it's WIFOM. I'm still not sure I could have convinced myself that Xatalos was scum, but Unforgiven dying would have certainly given me more pause.
Do you think I should have appeared less certain during the final night cycle? At the time I was fairly certain of ShiaoPi but I still had a nagging suspicion about Xatalos. If I had made it less obvious that ShiaoPi was my target for the next day I could have forced a few decent cases/posts out of Xatalos. Do you think that would have been a better play on my part?
Overall, this was a game of very high quality (especially for a newbie game!). I doubt many towns (even ones consisting of veteran players) would *almost* win the game with no blue roles and only ONE mislynch to afford. I was most inspired by the play of sciberbia, s0Lstice and Ange777 - a nice balance of good reads and pro-town effort. austinmcc clearly put in effort, but his reads were always wrong The opposite was true for Unforgiven_ve, who had the best reads, but apparently didn't care about the game. suki deserves a special mention for playing so well for her first game.
A bit sad that so many were replaced/modkilled, but what can you do... Bad luck for town, and some bad luck for Mafia as well (suki offline at the most critical moment). Let's hope everyone is active in future games
On June 11 2012 08:26 Miltonkram wrote: @ sciberbia Note taken. From here on out I won't immediately discount evidence just because it's WIFOM. I'm still not sure I could have convinced myself that Xatalos was scum, but Unforgiven dying would have certainly given me more pause.
Do you think I should have appeared less certain during the final night cycle? At the time I was fairly certain of ShiaoPi but I still had a nagging suspicion about Xatalos. If I had made it less obvious that ShiaoPi was my target for the next day I could have forced a few decent cases/posts out of Xatalos. Do you think that would have been a better play on my part?
Yeah, it's a common trap to think someone is town and then ignore him. You should have put some pressure on me and gathered more evidence to determine if I'm really town. The lynch was obviously going to be between me and ShiaoPi, so the more discussion/information before the final decision, the better. If I was really town, I wouldn't have minded some additional pressure to prove my innocence.
@miltonkram a) Talking about your reads during the final night complicates the battle of wits. imo, this isn't necessary good or bad; it just complicates the WIFOM associated with the NK for all parties.
b) As Xatalos said, forcing more posts out of the remaining mafia suspects is more likely to help than hurt. So I guess the "optimal" play is to force a ton of content out of everyone, but in this particular case I doubt that your read would have changed on Xatalos or Shiaopi, so I think you would have just been wasting time (and making me die of anxiety :p)
In summary, I think your strong accusation of shiaopi during the night was neither good nor bad.
IMO your mistake was on the final day. You could have won the game by assuming the following: 1) mafia would expect the NK to have no effect on anyone's read 2) a mafia shiaopi would expect a NK of you/austinmcc to have much better prospects than a NK of unforgiven 3) a mafia xatalos would expect only a NK of unforgiven to give him a great chance at winning 4) realize that neither mafia would expect you to figure all this out and base your vote off of it 5) lynch Xatalos
Obviously, it's easy for me to say all this postgame, and it's not easy to concretely justify these assumptions, especially 1 and 4. The issue is probably that you weren't convinced about 1. So mafia (Xatalos) accurately predicted your actions whereas you didn't accurately predict his. Hence his deservedly winning the battle of wits and with it the game.
Oh man, let's not even get into posting more. I thought about holding things up, talking through a couple thoughts in thread and with marv in pms, but I was still so frustrated from my read on heist that I didn't want to give myself time to change my mind and start playing the what if game.
I even thought about REALLY drawing things out and suggesting a no-lynch, but assumed I'd be strangled through the computer. If we reeeeeeally wanted it, could have gotten another 120 hours of discussion in, but I'm in agreement that it would have been a waste of time and we weren't going to constructively analyze the situation for very long if at all.
Is there a way to find out when the next newbie mafia is going to start? I've been refreshing the main page compulsively because I missed out on Newbie Mafia XVI by like a few hours... =|
On June 11 2012 12:35 suki wrote: Is there a way to find out when the next newbie mafia is going to start? I've been refreshing the main page compulsively because I missed out on Newbie Mafia XVI by like a few hours... =|
It's never that exact. From what I gather prplhz should be posting Newbie XVII signups in the next day or two.
GG everyone. My internet really did get cancelled and I really did want to be there for most of Day 3. Oh well. I think we all knew I was going to die anyway. I was REALLY, REALLY surprised when I came in late and found the day still at a NL.
Only one person to thank for that:
ShaoPi. Thank you for believing in me. It was really gratifying to hear someone agree with me (even if I was mafia). And hey I tried to play day 1 exactly as I would have as if I was town except for the whole Suki part. You won us the game (), that and Xatalos' late game and the modkills.
My biggest mistake was trying to deflect votes away from Suki. I'm pretty sure I wasn't too suspicious before the whole lynch pressure period. At least I hope I wasn't on too many people's radars except you Vivax.
Vivax: I tunnelled you mercilessly pretty much the entire game. If it makes you feel better, at least it wasn't from a fellow townie. Although I would still argue you were not playing optimally as town, which made my case much easier to push through. You down right confused me sometimes. But good play getting people to back off of you, at least some of them.
Solstice: Sorry but you really just had to go. With Suki lynched N1, and me in suspicion, we knew we couldn't really use our night kills for any sneaky play. We just had to try and take out the most aggressive player against us, which was you. It must have been really annoying not being able to respond to my post defending myself against your accusation.
Great job Xatalos bringing it home for us. This was my first time playing mafia, so it was quite an interesting experience.
Bah. Not to take anything away from Xat, or to give us more credit, but I wonder if things would have played out different if you had started the game or if Golden had played it out. We couldn't really give you a pass, but at the same time you didn't really have any way to argue back against anything Golden said/did D1.
On June 12 2012 07:01 austinmcc wrote: Bah. Not to take anything away from Xat, or to give us more credit, but I wonder if things would have played out different if you had started the game or if Golden had played it out. We couldn't really give you a pass, but at the same time you didn't really have any way to argue back against anything Golden said/did D1.
i've replaced in a few times and I just outright refuse to be held responsible for whoever I replaced
I think ShiaoPi did that to the best of his ability, but it wasn't really up to him. Hell, I was leaning town on him and swapped almost entirely based on D1 (which was dumb).