It's simple Unforgiven, ShiaoPi was hoping to win the game after this lynch period. If Eishi_Ki was scum and we mislynch, then scum win because after the night kill we would be at 2 town and 2 scum. ShiaoPi was trying really hard for the mislynch because he wanted the scum win.
@ ShiaoPi I have to admit that you were really close. At this point there is nothing you can do to convince me you aren't scum. If I were you I would just admit defeat now, but even if you don't I will still come after you if I'm alive come day cycle.
But I don't think Shaopi whould play such an obvious mafia, that's what it bothers me. I did read his filter carefully and its such a clueless townie/ astronomical bad mafia read... I like to think its the first one, now xatalos/austin will confortably wait for a mislynch tomorrow...milton, you or me will die tonight, that's fo sho'
I literally cannot make this any simpler for you. Normally I would wait until the night deadline to post this, but I may not be around then so I am posting this now.
Scum nearly had this game won. If we mislynched and both scum survived we would have lost. ShiaoPi was just about to win the game, he was trying to force town players into a decision between him +heist vs. you + Xatalos. Luckily austinmcc made the correct call. One of us is dying tonight. If it's me I hope you will make the correct move and lynch ShiaoPi.
I think the night kill is going to be Miltonkram. At least that's what I'd do in ShiaoPi's position... But it's just all too WIFOM to think about -.- So not much use to talk about that...
Yeah, if yesterday's lynch had been a mislynch, it would have been already GG (2 town vs 2 Mafia). Even if it had been a no-lynch, it would have been basically GG (shoot Miltonkram -> convince one of austinmcc or Unforgiven_ve to vote for me -> GG). So this game was very, very close: I'm happy austinmcc made the correct choice in the end. As you can see, even a no-lynch would have pretty much meant a 90% win chance for Mafia... Unforgiven_ve, if you still wonder why ShiaoPi defended heist so desperately, there's your answer. I think it's pretty clear and in no way "bad Mafia play". They almost won with a no-lynch, but austinmcc made the right choice, ruining their plan.
I'll have to be offline for some time, but later today I'll be going through ShiaoPi's full filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi) to find every suspicious move he's made up to this point. Especially considering the flips of suki and heist. I don't really see how the last Mafia could be anyone else after yesterday's events. Miltonkram looks like obvious town at this point, I'm quite certain austinmcc is town as well (he could have just won the game for Mafia yesterday if he wanted to, but chose not to), and Unforgiven_ve makes very little sense as Mafia (driving the lynches of suki and heist).
Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail.
I AM NOT MAFIA
To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist?
@Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation.
What I want you to consider: Lynch Xatalos
On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
##Vote: Xatalos
And for the lazy ones:
On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me.
The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it.
EBWOP: Another argument against Xatalos is given the flip of heist, why was he so eager and willing to switch on Vivax day2? It took just a few defensive posts of heist and one from me and Xatalos switched.
On June 08 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail.
I AM NOT MAFIA
To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist?
@Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation.
On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
His next vote is on ange777:
On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:
-snip-
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped--
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped- All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote: --snipped-- Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close.
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote: It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.
On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:
Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways
What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote: My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.
OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me.
@Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell.
And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax).
It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve.
His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice:
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example.
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve
The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos.
And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler +
On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote.
On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me.
The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone.
Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.
sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.
Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.
For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
On June 09 2012 02:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Dont worry austin, you just anaclet'ed again this time lol. Always playing for mafia, maybe this time you are one of them !!! *suspense music* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xczxi_49inE
Could you explain why austinmcc would be Mafia over ShiaoPi? I just don't see any sense in that. Read through their filters and give some reasoning, not just random one liners.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.
It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.
To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.
What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid.
You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).
The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).
-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it.
With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):
On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning.
As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it.
Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777.
The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game.
This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.
On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence.
I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...
He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.
Now we get to the juicy part:
On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads:
To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie.
eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler +
In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.
and
I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum.
This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch.
Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing.
Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me.
ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.
The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post.
It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal...
On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.
Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction.
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!
I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else.
On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos?
Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.
How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me.
Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...
How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos.
To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
What's wrong with making a case against you, instead of getting stuck on those arguments of your case we agreed to disagree on? How is it just "discrediting" to make the first actual case against you? I already dissolved some of your arguments, some of them are a matter of opinion which are useless to argue about, and some of them are so clearly wrong (like me wanting to "mislynch" heist all game...) that they're not even worth arguing about. I don't think there's anything more I can add to dissolve those remaining arguments of yours that you would never revert anyway (such as me creating a better & more active discussion atmosphere being "scummy"... what??).
The most disturbing point about this post is that you just flat-out dismiss all the evidence of o.Golden_ne being Mafia, as if it had no relevance to you. It most certainly does - exactly as much as your own posts. But let's move on to your own posts for argument's sake:
- You most definitely sheeped the consensus by going for Vivax. After suki flipped, the majority was for lynching Vivax, especially including the highest town read who had just got the first Mafia lynched (Ange777). It was pretty obvious that Vivax would be the lynch for Day 2 at the time where you named him your main suspect. Not to mention o.Golden_ne's obvious sheeping of both s0Lstice and Miltonkram during Day 1 (and not adding anything of his own).
- You accuse me of switching to Unforgiven_ve (my main suspect from early Day 1) after Ange777 started showing signs of towniness. When heist did the exact same thing, you say it's perfectly logical and reasonable. You accuse me of being the last to vote for suki (even though I most likely typed the vote earlier than heist). When heist voted for suki second-last, you say he "simply stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me". These are just few examples of your screaming inconsistencies regarding your attitude to very similar events (the only real difference being who posted it). There's just no way you would have such a change in your views towards the same events if you were town - and actually honest with your reads.
- Now you're just mispresenting what I said. I never said you wanted a no-lynch, I just said you completely changed your read on Vivax - for a very weak reason. Why would you do that unless you had no faith in Vivax being Mafia in the first place?
- The reason you're wishy-washy is that you're just asking for a chance to do *anything* (even lynching Eishi_Ki or a no-lynch) just to avoid lynching heist. There's no way you'd be so willing to do almost anything except lynch heist, unless you're teamed with him. Especially a no-lynch would be very bad in that situation, almost ensuring a Mafia victory (just changing the situation from 5 town vs 2 Mafia -> 3 town vs 2 Mafia, a very comfortable situation for Mafia).
On June 09 2012 05:01 ShiaoPi wrote: I am talking against a wall with Xatalos (who would have guessed?)
To everyone else still in this game: May I hear your thoughts on this? The only way we can still win this is if we get scum tomorrow and not mislynch.
Just a moment ago you said I'm not "trying to dissolve your arguments" hard enough, yet you give up completely on arguing once I respond. Where is your logic?
He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him.
Its what all mafia (and bad townies) did every thime i posted something (LOLZ LEARN SUM ENGRISH) ... one of my main reasons to suspect xatalos
So you suspect anyone (austinmcc, me) who thinks your play is confusing? The better course of action would be to read filters and state your reasoning. Didn't it cross your mind that ShiaoPi might just be trying to win your vote by not questioning your plays?
my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.
What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
On June 09 2012 05:16 ShiaoPi wrote: my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread.
What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon.
Hmmm. If you can't defend from those points, just say so clearly. I agree though that I want to see Miltonkram and austinmcc returning before the deadline. Either of them might be shot soon, and if they don't get to say their opinions, there'll be less to talk about tomorrow.
Unforgiven, apart from one post in this thread, nobody has brought up the language issue. You're the only person who keeps mentioning it.
All my stuff with you was that you would post a conclusion with nothing to back it up. That's not a language barrier issue, you just wouldn't explain yourself, and if asked to, you became hostile.
) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.
EPT
