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Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post.
First post:Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote:Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me + Show Spoiler +
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
what you can expect from me + Show Spoiler +
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
what i ask of you guys + Show Spoiler +
1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
to lynch or not to lynch? + Show Spoiler +
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
what I think we should focus on right now + Show Spoiler +
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia? At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post.
2nd Post:+ Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on.
3rd post:I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 16:47 Eishi_Ki wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 16:33 heist wrote:On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote:
Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell? I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active. @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all. It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use.
4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it.
5th post:s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.
I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues.
D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax.
Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy.
Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
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@ Sciberbia
I agree with your advice on the way our (possible) blue players should play. We should be wary of any claims however. If we're in the setup without blues we won't have a counter-claim if scum should try to claim. See you guys later!
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
My current scumreads are the triple of suki, eishi/Xatalos and Vivax.
Let's start of with an overview of suki's filter, who is confirmed scum:
I already pointed out that he soft-defends eishi, which coupled with his absence makes me suspicious of him. He also went against vivax a bit before dropping it and strongly pushed on unforgiven, while keeping his suspicions on Milton.
This is in summary his interactions with the thread.
In my mind (as vivax reads as a possible scum) it involves a slight bus on vivax and some bits of taking off pressure of eishi. Coupling it with pushing the two people who were most in doubt (besides lurkers) at the beginning of day 1.
If you now take a look at vivax's filter, I encourage you all to take a good look on Ange's case against him.
There are a lot of good points in there and I'll add some more (while repeating others) in order to:
-Weirdness of seeing sciberbia as confirmed town, simply by virtue of posting first
-Flawed logic in regards of scum-attributes (activity=town, lurking=scum). Although there is some merit to it he takes it to ridiculous extremes and keeps mentioning it.
-The entire all-out-defense of suki screams scum in regards of the flip. But what is even weirder is his last votepost. He switches from ange to suki, although he is 100% sure that suki is town. Can anyone explain that logic to me? If you claim to have a sure read, stick with it. It just makes him look ridiculously bad, why go to such lengths to defend him and then just drop it, when you see that he will get lynched. Reads to me as trying to distance yourself last minute from your scumbuddy.
-Vivax's actions since the lynch was to state, that he will ignore any accusations in regards of his defense of suki and some bandwagoning on heist after solstice stated his suspicions. Oh and he also calls out a lurker (me in that case), who just got replaced. Pretty safe bet don't you think? Also his refusal to explain himself is outright retarded. As a townie why wouldn't I try to explain myself? Even his direct defense post to ange's case is weird:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 03 2012 08:14 Vivax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 03 2012 07:00 Ange777 wrote:
3. TLDR
I think Vivax is scum because:
- His best argument in hunting scum has repeatedly been lurking=scum, active=town. Very flawed logic! Maybe to show that by his own standard and his own high activity he should be considered town?
- He only made "safe" cases until now. Case against Eishi was easy to start, so was his case against me and now heist, Golden/ShiaoPi
- When arguing with him about Suki, he never once talked about the content of Suki's post but always emphasized that my lurking play hurt town and therefore I should be lynched
- Even without once explaining his Suki town read he defended Suki till the end and only switched when there was no chance of getting me lynched
- Odd posts implying that one should not lynch him as he is townie (without being in danger), odd post of claiming I can't flip blue, a lot of flawed logic (two mafia can't vote each other), ....
I know that right now it might look like I am tunneling Vivax but he IS my top scum read. There might be a 1% chance of him playing an awful awful town play but I just can't see it. If Vivax you seriously want to convince me of you being town, then please start defending yourself.
(Good chance I missed something in my post as I was really crammed for time when typing this! Please bear that in mind and read Vivax' filter yourself!)
Unforgiven's play still doesn't strike me as townie even though he sided with the right vote .... don't know what to do with that right now.
And please don't forget the lurkers!
Yes, I should have totally ignored the lurkers and let them lurk to not force them to post something which might give us reads on them, that's an awesome idea for early game town. The lurker lynching policy is general consensus here, as you might have noticed before your arrival. Now that pretty much everyone has posted something, you know that it's cause there are people favoring lurker lynches. Argument 2: Case against Eishi was the least supported case there has been so far, the only one stirring distrust against him was suki initially, but then he told me to put him and sciberbia aside to talk about other players. Suki kept pushing cases against me more heavily than against Eishi_Ki. The case against you wasn't safe either. There are enough inconsistencies in your play, one of them being you suspecting unforgiven but supporting his case (I think Milton disagreed and mentioned that it might have been bussing by unforgiven_ve, but so early?No way. you said I should look at the times of the posts, I did that: + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 06:25 Ange777 wrote:
What exactly is your so-called scumtell? That I side with Unforgiven on the case against Suki? If you read correctly, I changed my opinion on Unforgiven after his recent posts and only after my case on Suki.
I don't understand the problem. On June 02 2012 06:19 Ange777 wrote:
I would consolidate on a Unforgiven lynch as I have posted my concerns about his recent play. Still I believe Suki to be more scummy. On June 02 2012 06:16 Ange777 wrote:
Would you mind explaining who is deflecting attention away from me? I think I made a pretty good case and took a clear stance in my gameplay, that is why people are switching their votes off of me and start voting Suki or Unforgiven. Yes, Suki was active for a far longer way than me but activity alone should not be a reason to not suspect someone or not lynch someone.
You never discharged unforgiven, and that's where I saw the lie, especially given the close posting times contradicting themselves so clearly. Indeed, I wanted to lynch you for the sudden appearance throwing FoS at active townies after the votes on you started, and just then. You had the worst possible timing to appear, by your own choice to focus on the other game, you acknowledged the points that the behavior was bad for the town, so I don't see how the lynching shouldn't have been justified. Argument 4: What's suspicious about switching when I'm trying by all means to get a day1 lynch? I was last to vote before heist. This is an argument like argument 1, every townie here would have voted for suki to get the day 1 lynch, Eishi was afk, so was Golden, and suki just remained silent while I was unfortunately defending him already. tl dr ; At the moment you are blind to the scumreads that suki's death offers. You didn't even adress the two posts I've made about heists and golden based on sukis' stances in connection with them, and that together with the guy who just got killed. S0lstice was ready to push the case along with me, and he's the least suspected townie here. Why should I kill the guy who's gonna support me in the case on heist and formerly Golden, the case I'm pushing with strong reads? After a mafias' death, you first analyze their filter, then you might start attacking those who defended the dead mafia, and only bad mafia would defend their teammate directly (instead of deflecting to other players), the chain reaction after flipping mafia is obvious, so the defenders might be noob or misled townies like in my case. On the other hand, I think heist and the O.Golden replacement will be screwed once i flip town in case of a lynch. They will have one more kill at their disposal however. This is all I have to say in my defense, be aware that I will ignore more accusations and just answer them with more reads from scumhunting, who are especially focused on sukis' ties.
In his first paragraph he completely disregards the argument of ange about his scumhunting criteria and just goes on about lurker policy.
In his 2nd he keeps up his weird logic of townies not being able to follow more than one suspicion and again does not answer to the accusation directly.
3rd paragraph is the same thing, he appears to be defending but in the end he ignored the accusation (defending suki that heavily without being able to show, where he got his townread from).
This pattern continues before he finishes his defense up with a ton of WIFOM about mafia motivations.
Does this really look like a solid defense to you (all the people with townreads on Vivax) ?
Regarding my suspicions of eishi. It mainly stems from suki's filter and his lack of posts until now, therefore I cannot be sure about my read on him. The main points would be the interactions between him, suki and vivax. They had some slight suspicions going against each other with rather weak arguments, so it could be concluded that there might have been bussing involved. I would love to see some more posts from him though. If eishi is not scum I would tend to read Xatalos as third scumteammember now.
Going through his filter there were a lot of "moderating" posts, which make him look as if he is contributing but do not have a lot of content to be honest, e.g. + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote:
s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
Just before lynch on Day 1 as ange pops back into the thread he gets a heavy townvibe from her but does not vote for suki, seeing him as a townie (without explicitly stating why) and pressures hard for a lynch on unforgiven. He is actually the first to vote on unforgiven after ange dropped the FOS. His votechange was also after heist's which was number 7 to bring on the hammer (arguably the posts were 1 minute apart but I would believe it to be natural to keep hitting that F5 button so close to lynch). Also this post post-lynch is weird to me, look at the bolded part:
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote:
--snipped---
I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.
Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He disregards the fact that he was also one of the opponent against the suki-lynch (besides the, wow I was wrong earlier) and goes on to attack heist. Also his support for the case against heist seems really weak to me. He adds a post about vivax's voteswitch as highly suspicious, which in fact it is not as vivax was simply defying logic in his vote. After heist defends himself from that argument all Xatalos has to fall back on his suspicions is the case of solstice. Bandwagoning? Maybe, conclusively said Xatalos has not contributed much and his behaviour surrounding the lynch and his follow up play right now have been off ( to me at least) and if eishi starts contributing and convincing me that he is town-aligned Xatalos is for sure number 2 on my list right after Vivax.
##Vote: Vivax
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I think there is an excellent chance heist is mafia and I'm still convinced he is our best lynch today. But with miltonkram and shiaopi preferring vivax, and even xatalos now having his doubts, it looks like we will once again have a hard time reaching a consensus. We still need to hear from unforgiven, austinmcc, superouman, and eishi_ki.
I'm going to try to convince you guys to vote for heist. In this post, I'm going to list evidence against heist, in approximate order from most substancial to least substancial. I'm going to repeat myself/s0Lstice a bit.
heist's scummy defense of suki
+ Show Spoiler +
I highlighted this in my last post. Whereas Xatalos and (to a lesser extent) Vivax took a consistent stance in their defense of suki, heist was hesitant to committ to defending suki, and then claims that vivax is bussing suki.
Notice how he is kind of all over the place
1) "I am not completely convinced about suki"
2) "Suki reads town to me"
3) "Now it just looks like you (Vivax) are bussing (Suki)"
4) "Not very confident in a suki lynch"
5) "I don't think suki is mafia"
I have no problem with comments 2 or 5. They are consistent and say that heist has a town read on suki. But comments 1 and 4 are scummy to me. He's trying to dissuade us from voting suki, but is vague about his opinion with the modifiers on "convinced" and "confident". And comment 3 is implying that heist thinks suki has a good chance of being mafia.
willingness to throw suspicion on anyone but suki
+ Show Spoiler +
suki was the only person heist was actually defensive of leading up to the lynch:
vivax: heist accuses strongly and threatens to vote. Doesn't because he realizes a lynch on vivax isn't going to happen
superouman: heist tries to raise suspicion on superouman and votes him
unforgiven: jumps on unforgiven about an hour and a half before the deadline and pushes to get him lynched
ange777: now heist didn't actually accuse ange, but he didn't really try to convince people not to vote her. He doesn't actually defend her until an hour before the deadline, when it was obvious she was not going to be lynched. While true that he didn't jump on the bandwaggon, this is probably just because he was hoping she'd get lynched without his support, making him look more townie. One known scum (suki) already jumped on her bandwaggon.
I'm willing to excuse a bad read on suki, but not if suki is the only person he's defensive of. Townies should have some town-reads that they are willing to fight for.
Compare this to some people I think are town.
Personally, I was defensive of cattivik, unforgiven, and superouman. I also played a part in slowing the bandwagon on ange.
Ange was at first defensive on unforgiven, then FOS'd him. She also wasn't a fan of vivax, but she did defend superouman and herself.
Xatalos made a bad read on suki, but he was at least willing to defend other players that he thought were town. He retracted his suspicions on unforgiven, only later reverting to unforgiven when it was clear that it was between unforgiven and suki. He was also slightly defensive of superouman and was willing to back off ange.
pretty mafia-like in his scumhunting
+ Show Spoiler +Heist's scumhunting is what I'd expect mafia "scumhunting" to look like. It's usually easiest for mafia to attack players that make controversial/confusing townie plays. Heist did this with gusto thrice - on Vivax, superouman., and unforgiven Pretty easy people to attack and indeed were all popular objects of criticism. Heist harped on superouman's wtf-vote twice. It's something very easy to be critical of, but I think most of us read this as disinterested townie - not mafia. Even on these three, he doesn't commit to attacking them. In his first post on Vivax, he calls Vivax's post "borderline scummy". He also says superouman is "rapidly rising in his suspicions." And early on, he was "not really convinced on unforgiven". This talk on unforgiven is especially suspicious + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote:
@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. He basically says that a good argument could be made for Unforgiven being scummy, but doesn't committ himself to it. Again, this is all what I'd expect from a mafia trying to "scumhunt".
His extreme reluctance to let people trust me
+ Show Spoiler +
What really sucks for mafia? When active townies begin to trust each other. Mafia would like to prevent active townies from being trusted by everyone. Suki and heist both harped on how I couldn't be a confirmed townie.
Most people took the following stance: "I'm pretty sure sciberbia is town. Still, he's not a confirmed townie."
Heist only had a "mostly town" reading of me, and spent a lot of time detailing how I could be a mafia and shouldn't be a "confirmed townie". He even suggested the possibility that both me and cattivik were mafia. Maybe I'm biased, but it seems to me that heist and suki were less willing than everyone else to believe that I am town. It's another example of heist not willing to be defensive of anybody (except suki). Typical mafia behavior
the kill of s0Lstice
+ Show Spoiler +
The NK of s0Lstice makes a lot of sense if heist is mafia and vivax is not. Doesn't make so much sense if cattivik is mafia and vivax is not.
Heist looks much scummier than either Vivax or Xatalos to me, mostly because of the first two points. I'll probably make a small post explaining why I still think Vivax is townie.
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Actually, I'm really tired and going to sleep. Basically, I agree that Vivax's play is strange. However, it is strange whether or not he is mafia. You'd have to convince me it is strange scummy play rather than strange townie play and I remain unconvinced. I was hoping to be able to elaborate more, but I'm quite busy tomorrow and may not get the chance. Please read over all the material on heist and you will hopefully come to the same conclusion that I have. Night all.
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Day 2 votecount
Heist
Xatalos
Sciberbia
Vivax
ShiaoPi
Deadline is in 16 hours from the time of this post. Remember that voting is mandotary. With 10 alive it takes a majority of 6 to lynch.
Votecount as of 15:06 TL time
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Sup guys, sorry for the lack of activeness lately, i've been very busy...i really like the activity from sometownies, like i said my primary read is heist, nothing weird happened but i do readed a couple of great things you guys posted here.
it's 2am here and i just got home, tomorrow morning i will try to point a few things, it's gonna be hard for me to get in here but i'll try, but just in case
##Vote heist
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It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:
On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote:
I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much.
Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up.
2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player.
3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice".
4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).
Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.
##Unvote
##Vote Vivax
I also noticed that Miltonkram started placing doubt on me after I called him out. Not necessarily a Mafia reaction, since anyone would feel threatened by negative attention, but something to keep in mind. Thinking a bit selfishly, though, this slight doubt on me isn't only a bad thing. It means I'm less likely to be shot, so I must thank you for that, Miltonkram.
On June 04 2012 08:47 Miltonkram wrote:Here lies my promised post analyzing the play of Xatalos. I will be looking through his posts chronologically and go over important points again at the end of the post. First post: Show nested quote +Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia:+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote:Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me + Show Spoiler +
I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.
what you can expect from me + Show Spoiler +
Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.
what i ask of you guys + Show Spoiler +
1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.
to lynch or not to lynch? + Show Spoiler +
Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's
I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.
If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.
Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.
what I think we should focus on right now + Show Spoiler +
The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:
1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?
Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia? At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post. There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms 2nd Post: Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +
Try not to bandwagon with a simple "I agree with ___". We want to limit our lynch candidates. The voting patterns of Day 1 may end up leading us to an excellent mafia candidate day 3 or later. If we have people voting all over the place, the usefulness of the day 1 lynch becomes diluted. That's not say don't be aggressive. Don't be afraid to poke the bear right in the eye if you feel good about an accusation.
Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on. 3rd post: Show nested quote +I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 16:47 Eishi_Ki wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 16:33 heist wrote:On May 31 2012 13:18 Eishi_Ki wrote:
Sorry for delaying, I was washing the blood off me knife. Skinning a pig can be tiring work....
Anyway, so far what I've got is that Cattivik seems the most likely candidate for scum (overuses collectives such as 'us' and 'we') and doesn't provide any evidence for initially supporting Scib and then saying he wants to LD1 anyway.
However, I'm also cautious of Milton. Sciberbia seems like the obvious guy who is going against the grain here and I feel that was jumped on at the first available opportunity. Promoting Townies to be active for more information helps everyone, not just the Townies but his post was tendered towards the Townies which I feel may be a guise.
Needz moar infos I agree with needing more information. And by no means should you blindly follow any accusations. I take it you agree with me on Cattivik but can you clarify your first point about the overuse of the "collective". How exactly is this a scumtell? I'd like some further responses, especially, especially from you, Cattivik. Overall, it's looking as if we aren't going to be plagued by inactivity and lurking although I would prod Superouman and Ange77 to post more and be active. @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all. It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use. Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting. 4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it. 5th post: Show nested quote +s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying. I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues. D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax. Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy. Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute!
The only somewhat decent point I see in this post is that... I thought Suki was town, and acted accordingly. While it places doubt on my reading skills, it's not a solid piece of evidence regarding my alignment. s0Lstice thought Suki was town as well, and he obviously wasn't Mafia. Vivax and Heist also thought he was town, and while one of them very well might be Mafia, it'd be pretty incredible if they were both Mafia (as the two realistic options for the Day 2 lynch...). That means there were at least two town players with a good town read on Suki, and almost certainly at least three town players. I think Mafia would be far more likely to bus their teammate once the lynch starts looking invevitable (just like you actually did, Miltonkram, right after the bandwagon on Suki had reached the critical mass!) than to recklessly expose themselves to scrutiny - with only a very slim chance of achieving anything. In my eyes, it's very risky for Mafia without almost any benefit. Of course it's possible for Mafia to make suboptimal plays (risking everything for nothing), as Vivax defended Suki, and his play hasn't been very optimal anyway, so I wouldn't be surprised if he made such a big mistake in his play.
Your other points are something like "this is a pro-town / ballsy / unsuspicious thing to do, but maybe it's all fake and hiding behind townieness?". Everything is possible, but if something looks townie, the first thing to do shouldn't be to assume it's all fake (unless you have a severe case of confirmation bias, which seems to be the case). By following your logic, we should be pushing to lynch players like Ange777 and sciberbia as well, even though their actions read town. This is just bad / Mafia logic, not much more to say about that.
If you think it's suspicious that I "bandwagoned" on s0Lstice's case for Heist, you should go reread the definition of bandwagoning. It means to go along with the general opinion. I was the only one really pushing for Heist after s0Lstice died, besides sciberbia who also tried to make it the lynch for today. Most of the players were in favor of lynching Vivax after Suki flipped Mafia. That's what I'd call bandwagoning: just sheeping Ange777, the highest town read. You're much more guilty of "bandwagoning" than me at this point, considering that you just voted for a harmless lurker first, then Suki (the general opinion), then apparently now Vivax (the general opinion). I have yet to see you doing anything else than bandwagoning (except voting for Ange777 - the safest possible option to vote for other than just bandwagoning the general opinion...).
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Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
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@ Xatalos
I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here
Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished
and I responded to suki here.
---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here + Show Spoiler +Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question + Show Spoiler +@Miltonkram
I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it.
If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote:
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).
I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him...
Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
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On June 04 2012 20:46 Miltonkram wrote:@ Xatalos I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here Show nested quote +Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished and I responded to suki here. Show nested quote +---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here + Show Spoiler +Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion.
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game.
Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished
Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question + Show Spoiler +@Miltonkram
I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it. If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it.
Hmm. It's easy to claim something was just "humor" afterwards, but if people don't see it as humor at the time, it's either A) bad humor B) not actually humor, but hidden as humor to cover up a mistake. I can see some kind of a (bad) townie logic in these posts, but the stronger alternative is that it was a Mafia play covered up as humor afterwards. In any case, the possibility of bad townie logic is better than no possibility of any townie logic, so this isn't a huge reason to lynch for...
Okay, so you have huge time limitations. The problem I have is that when you actually HAVE been online, you haven't been a contributive force in the discussion. You've just blended in and bandwagoned whenever possible (Suki after reaching a critical mass, Vivax after reaching a critical mass). You also made a safe vote for a lurker on Day 1, then placed some vague suspicions on me today after I called you out. None of this looks good for you.
Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself.
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On June 04 2012 21:05 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote:
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active). I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Let's look at it this way. Player A thinks player B is Mafia and player C is town. Even so, player A assumes that player C is Mafia while accusing player B! This contradiction is what got my attention. Still, I agree now that it's not good enough to lynch for. It's possible that he just disregarded player C's alignment completely and thought about player B's alignment in isolation, so that his vote for player C (after already reaching a critical amount of votes) was seen as a possible bus attempt (even though player C was a town read for him, he was still considering the possibility of player B bussing player C).
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@ Miltonkram:
I'm pretty sure Xatalos is townie, simply cause he adresses suki, heist and O.Golden_ne in the last part you've quoted.
I know I'm being stubborn again on my suspicions, but face it:
suki never tried to rise attention towards heist, he never adressed him directly, same goes for O.Golden_ne.
In his filter, if you search for the word heist, you will find it once in a part where he tries to make Eishi_Ki look suspicious based on heist's and O.Golden_ne's attacks on me, cause that makes Eishi_Ki looks bandwagon-y, which I thought too, frankly.
Look for O.Golden_ne, you will get to suki's first post, where he suspects sciberbia and milton, who i both read as townie.
That's it, they kept the activity between each other to a minimum, but suki pretty much adresses everyone else directly, except for the two. If that's not a safe scumtell, I don't know.
@ Xatalos
No, I didn't give up on my defense, I've already written it down, and my best defense atm is good offense/scumhunting.
If you really look at your posts and then go through mine, you will find my defense anyway, I'm just tired of repeating it over and over when people ignore points I've already made, it's a waste of time.
Also, look at suki's first post concerning miltonkram and you'll know that it's nonsense to think miltonkram might not be town.
To me, it looks like you're too focused on the last posts and making the same mistake as Ange777. There are so many early posts from a confirmed mafia which hold so much more information, yet you prefer to look in a stage where every post is hard to contextualize. This is a point I've been making the entire time, and I would bet that everyone would agree on the logic. It's choosing the safe over the unsafe method, which you are not doing since you even suspect miltonkram when suki's first post disproves him being mafia.
And ShiaoPi doesn't even consider heist being mafia, wtf? There's so much evidence, you simply ignore it to push a case against me? Also, i prefer to not go through your offensive posts. Calling someone stupid and retarded isn't a good way to make reads, but I think the host might remind you of that at some point.
My list of scum remains the same: heist, ShiaoPi
##Vote heist
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 04 2012 21:53 Vivax wrote:
@ Miltonkram:
I'm pretty sure Xatalos is townie, simply cause he adresses suki, heist and O.Golden_ne in the last part you've quoted.
I know I'm being stubborn again on my suspicions, but face it:
suki never tried to rise attention towards heist, he never adressed him directly, same goes for O.Golden_ne.
In his filter, if you search for the word heist, you will find it once in a part where he tries to make Eishi_Ki look suspicious based on heist's and O.Golden_ne's attacks on me, cause that makes Eishi_Ki looks bandwagon-y, which I thought too, frankly.
Look for O.Golden_ne, you will get to suki's first post, where he suspects sciberbia and milton, who i both read as townie.
That's it, they kept the activity between each other to a minimum, but suki pretty much adresses everyone else directly, except for the two. If that's not a safe scumtell, I don't know.
@ Xatalos
No, I didn't give up on my defense, I've already written it down, and my best defense atm is good offense/scumhunting.
If you really look at your posts and then go through mine, you will find my defense anyway, I'm just tired of repeating it over and over when people ignore points I've already made, it's a waste of time.
Also, look at suki's first post concerning miltonkram and you'll know that it's nonsense to think miltonkram might not be town.
To me, it looks like you're too focused on the last posts and making the same mistake as Ange777. There are so many early posts from a confirmed mafia which hold so much more information, yet you prefer to look in a stage where every post is hard to contextualize. This is a point I've been making the entire time, and I would bet that everyone would agree on the logic. It's choosing the safe over the unsafe method, which you are not doing since you even suspect miltonkram when suki's first post disproves him being mafia.
And ShiaoPi doesn't even consider heist being mafia, wtf? There's so much evidence, you simply ignore it to push a case against me? Also, i prefer to not go through your offensive posts. Calling someone stupid and retarded isn't a good way to make reads, but I think the host might remind you of that at some point.
My list of scum remains the same: heist, ShiaoPi
##Vote heist
I stated my reasons for my townread on heist, I also adressed all the cases against him and they simply do not convince me, heist's actions can also be explained by townmotivation, something which I am severely doubting from your side. Just for the record I was calling your logic retarded/stupid not you, if you take offense from that I apologize, but in those phrases you can find my not-understanding of your viewpoint.
Furthermore I have stated already that my cases have been based mostly from suki's filter. Whom he accused, whom he defended. It is much more telling than a fact of no-interaction in my opinion. And again you just disregard critique of you completely, if you would take your time to really write up a solid defense I might be inclined to believe you but your squirming under pressure just screams scum to me. My vote stays.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
EBWOP: Since we were talking about suki's filter, nobody wants to comment on the soft-defense he gave eishi?
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On June 04 2012 21:05 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote:
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.
ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.
I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active). I really do not understand all your reactions to the "bussing" comment from heist. Vivax took a total 180 degree turn from his 100%townie read on suki into voting him... Also I already addressed some weak points in s0lstice's case, which simply do not convince me that heist is scum.
Vivax's suspicious behaviour through his ability to completely change his read and convictions on someone has occurred on multiple occasions now which I have noted and previously commented on. The follow up by him was inconclusive and I feel insubstantial. Check my filter for reference to this.
Anyway, sorry for being mostly AFK, it's finals time and I've been trying to organise and mark the exams blah blah. I'll try and be online as much as I can, but for now, I need to get some rest.
##Vote Vivax
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On June 04 2012 22:03 ShiaoPi wrote:
EBWOP: Since we were talking about suki's filter, nobody wants to comment on the soft-defense he gave eishi?
Heist did also, I would never let you forget. You can read Vivax's claims against me, but there wasn't a lot to them. It isn't difficult to contribute in a soft defence; it hardly indicates alignment. I realise that suki's lynching and the suspicions on Heist have placed me in a bad light but I can't do anything about who they choose to defend other than say I'm not in league with them. See it how you will.
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Votecount so far:
Vivax ( 3 ): ShiaoPi, Xatalos, Eishi_Ki,
heist ( 3 ): Xatalos, sciberbia, unforgiven_ve, Vivax,
It's Day2. With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch!
A little less than 7 hours left to vote, voting is mandatory!
People who haven't voted yet (4): austinmcc, Superouman, heist, Miltonkram
Deadline is 22:30 GMT (+00:00)
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Alright, looks like I'm a lovely replacement for Ange. Lurk around for more than half the day cycle, then finally get active. Now if only it would lead to the same results...
Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me.
##Vote: Vivax
Vivax
As long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking
at two players that did so. So here are some specifics.
- Comments made during the Suki/Ange discussion
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote:
And frankly, who the hell would want to lynch the guy who contributed more so far (suki) as opposed to someone who comes last minute when the votes against her are out already.
Stop getting soft and let's stick to the lurker lynching policy noone opposed to at the start.
It's a real bad time for controversy.
I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case.
On June 02 2012 05:55 Vivax wrote:
And frankly, even if Ange777 would turn out to be town, all this last hour confusion is thanks to her and the decision to play games when she can't be properly active in them. You don't join a game of starcraft to go afk while you play chess either, then to come back asking others for help when the enemy is in your base, blaming one of the guys who was playing actively.
If you are town, you should be really aware of the bad impact you are having on this game. I would frankly still lynch you just for that.
I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active.
This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 20:20 Vivax wrote:
Heist: I'll wait to see how he reacts to his arguments' dismissal now that sciberbia should be a confirmed townie.
If I was scum, I'd know about his status and wouldn't have taken him into defense against a majority.
However, given that i suspect others more for their passivity, I dont think that Heist is scum.
On June 01 2012 08:16 Vivax wrote:
With all that said, heist, you're either badly informed about the game or scum. Pick one.
On June 02 2012 07:40 Vivax wrote:
Stop suspecting heist, he was the first to defend Ange777 against my accusations and kept that stance throughout this whole last phase. He would have wanted her to get lynched if he was mafia.
But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 19:48 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
[Vivax quote swapping vote to Suki]
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. 12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia. Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL.
Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy?
His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind.
That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day.
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EPT
