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On June 02 2012 12:32 s0Lstice wrote:Concerning Heist, I want to get this case out there on the off chance that I am the N1 kill. Lets have a look at what he has been doing to hunt scum: + Show Spoiler +For most of day 1, he has had one target, and that is Vivix. His first accusation against him contained the following points: a perceived contradiction, and his views/defense of sciberbia. This is the contradiction. Vivix says he sees the reason behind sciberbia's no-lynch argument, but still prefers to lynch. Seeing the logic and worthyness of considering of an idea, but still coming down on the other side of it is not a contradiction, provided you supply the reasons for doing so. Vivix does; he says he still wants to lynch to get rid of lurkers right off the bat or act on a strong scum read, and get lynch information earlier rather than later. His views and defense on sciberbia have been covered a lot, so I'll just say one thing about this. Vivix has been steadfast in his convictions consistently. At the time, the sample size was small and no pattern had developed yet, so the suspicion is warranted. As the game goes on however, nobody should be surprised that Vivix was so sure on his first town read. He is consistently steadfast in all of his opinions. Moving on. He posts some filler before addressing Vivix again. The filler is basically asking Eishi_Ki to clarify his thoughts on Vivix, asks Vivix to post more, and pressures the lurkers. Nothing really scummy here, he is just doing due diligence on his case. His second address to Vivix has one repeated point and one new one: Vivix' sure read on sciberbia, and his hasty vote on Eishi_Ki. His read on sciberbia I've talked about already...his vote on Eishi_Ki represented his first scum hunting target. He went after him full force and voted. Again, these are consistent with Vivix' aggressive play. He defends a town read aggressively, and pursues a scum read aggressively. Next he addresses someone new, and its Unforgiven. He chimes in with his thoughts, which is fine. It's the current subject matter. He uses a lot of words to say that he agrees on the suspicions, but will reserve judgement. It's a very safe stance. He follows this up with further safe pressure on the lurkers. His third address to Vivix. He again uses a lot of words to say basically: I don't agree that your high activity and extremeness makes you absolutely town, and you may be doing it to obscure the scummy things you do. This is trumped up WIFOM + Show Spoiler +Vivix as scum thinks, I'll be careful but still contribute. But wait! That is what they are expecting! I'll be aggressive to throw them off my trail. But wait, maybe they are expecting me to expect that so I'll be more careful. But wait! etc etc There's a reason constant aggression reads as town: because in more cases than not, it is town. His fourth address to Vivix. He harps again on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia. He keeps driving this point, and damns him for finding a townie and not hunting scum. Except....Vivix has been hunting his top scum read: Eishi_Ki. This just makes no sense. Vivix scum hunt was aggressive and obvious. There is no excuse for ignoring it in this context. You know who else kept harping on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia? SukiSomething else Suki did was to drop his main suspicion in favor of another target. Heist does this too, stating that he is giving Vivix the benefit of the doubt, and then votes for a lurker. Not the lurker that has had the most buzz going for a policy lynch, but Superouman. Essentially a wasted vote. In summary: -Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak point -his fast read and defense of sciberbia -WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse -spending time confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is -Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and 'wait and see' on Unforgiven -Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt' -votes for a lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet Events surrounding the lynch: + Show Spoiler +I'll start here, when the votes counted thusly: + Show Spoiler +Day 1 Votecount
Sciberbia (1): Miltonkram, Superouman
Eishi_Ki: Vivax
Unforgiven_ve: Xatalos, Suki
Suki (2): Unforgiven_ve, Sciberbia
Ange777 (5): Miltonkram, Vivax, Xatalos, Eshi_Ki, suki
Superouman (1): Heist This is shortly after Ange shows up. She takes the time to defend herself some and promises a scum read soon. While she is away doing that, sciberbia makes a post trying to organize everyone onto one person, and the votes on Ange go to 6 when I vote. Ange comes back and posts her read on Suki. It is solid, compelling, and, as we know now, dead on. She votes Suki right away, giving him 3 votes. Xatalos responds that he likes her contribution, and sciberbia comes back trying to illustrate how lynching suki is the best option for us as a group based on our stated convictions. Unforgiven chimes in to reinforce his Suki vote. I mention as well that her case is pretty good, and combined with all else, would draw my vote if he was our choice. The atmosphere at was pretty anti-Suki, and only getting worse. With Ange posting a very solid scum read, and a couple people suggesting she should live. If this goes further, Suki would definitely replace Ange as the consensus choice. Now Ange pursues Unforgiven, and pretty hard too, dropping a quick FoS. Xatalos follows up with his earlier suspicions and votes for him. This is a shake and bake counter movement to the building case on Suki. While this is going on, Suki draws another vote from Milton. That makes 4. This is when Heist enters, when Suki is in a lot of danger, and there is a counter-movement swelling. He jumps all over Unforgiven. He went from non-commital on Unforgiven to all out war without any in-between, right at the time when the case was countering Suki's. He flat out yells at Vivix to not vote for Suki. He removes his vote on Superouman citing it as useless, only to place it on another useless case that had the third most votes. The only conceivable use it has is to stop the lynch of Suki. With 12 minutes left, he switches to Suki once it is clear that he is the consensus choice. This gave us majority on Suki, but Xatalos had already agreed that he would vote to ensure a lynch vs a no-lynch if it came to it, so it was going to happen anyway. What it also does is give him some deniability when Suki flipped scum. Not a lot, but some. In summary: -swoops in when the pressure on Suki is getting bad -pursues a useless counter-case vigorously against a player who he has been ambivalent about -switches his useless vote from one place to another useless place -was one of the very last to come in to vote for suki I think he has tied himself pretty strongly to Suki. What do others think about this?
PART 1 "Let's have a look at what he has been doing to hunt scum..."
This part of your argument deals with my accusations on Vivax. If this somehow reflected on my scumminess why didn't you speak up before the events around the lynch, accusing me? Because it doesn't. You simply didn't agree with me. You dedicate quite a bit of your post defending Vivax, but I'll reiterate your take on my points and then show my thought process.
My main point, as you call out, is Vivax's dedicated defense and conviction toward Vivax, which I found highly suspicious and you disregard as a townie being consistently aggressive. You even applaud his consistent aggressiveness as a fundamentally town. However, there is quite a big distinction in aggressiveness defending someone and aggressively following scum reads. Vivax is the former. Finding and trying to insist confirmed townies does NOTHING for the town come lynch time. That is the crux of my argument. He spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch. His one "aggressive" scumread is on Eishi, a poorly argued accusation in which his main point is that it's suspicious that Eishi can't be here near deadline since he lives in Korea. This is hardly compelling evidence. His aggressive behavior that you cite as such a townie behavior. Ask yourselves what has he actually done for the town after all this "aggression"?
The WIFOM is directed right to this quote by Vivax
I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely.
I've already talk about this quote before. If this isn't suspicious, then I don't know what is. I have not been spending time "not hunting scum, and confirming townies" as you put it. My main activities day 1 was actively pursuing Vivax. And just because I disagree with someone else's accusations does NOT mean I have confirmed the accused. I'm simply waiting for more information, i.e Unforgiven and Ange77. My drop on Vivax was because there was simply no momentum that would allow a lynch. I honestly feel like everyone had the one set opinion of him (oh he's so aggressive and consistent, he must be town) that they refused to read anything else in a different light. Frustrating but I agreed to drop it in order to actually have a lynch.
Concerning my vote on Superouman, which you call wasted because he had "no policy buzz as of yet". Yes precisely this. Why didn't he? Why was he so much less suspicious in so many people's eyes than Ange77? Various people had superouman on their suspicions list for essentially the same reason as Ange77. Lurking. Why then was there such massive and quick Ange77 bandwagon with almost no mention of Superouman. It was suspicious to me and next I would argue that you can't waste a vote when there are still hours and hours before the lynch. I was hoping to take the bandwagon off of Ange77, which erupted almost out of nowhere without even waiting for her to respond and place my vote onto the scummier lurker in my eyes.
PART 2 "Events surrounding the lynch"
Your main argument is that I purposefully entered an anti-Suki atmosphere to shift the votes away from him. In fact, I was present throughout the entire time that the Ange77 bandwagon erupted. If I was mafia, I could have sealed the mislynch with my vote. Suki was the next highest candidate and he would have survived. Why didn't I? I was reserving my opinion till after she was allowed a chance to contribute and respond to her defense? I have been doing this all day 1. If I don't have a strong opinion I'll give the accused a chance to defend and contribute: I've done it with Unforgiven, ange77, Superouman. Who was the only one who never showed up, never bothered to help town? Superouman. This was my reasoning for my vote and that was who I gave my vote to. Ange77 survives and finally posts her analysis, giving her a much more town impression in almost everyone's eyes.
You then state that the atmosphere turned distinctly anti-Suki. The only reason you construe the atmosphere as anti-Suki is because literally almost all the active people on at the time were the original votes behind Suki: Sciberbia, Unforgiven_ve, and Ange77 (check pg. 13) while Vivax and Xatalos still remaining unconvinced. At this point, the voting total is Ange77 with 6 votes and Suki with 3. Milton then turns against Suki to make it 4, as you said. At this point I come in. And according to you, it's only because of the atmosphere because you are solely reading my actions trying to construe everything as mafia. You fail to mention what was occurring simultaneously: Unforgiven_ve and his set of really bizarre posts against Ange77. The growing momentum against Suki is a direct result of Ange77 becoming more active and trying to clear herself as town, which is what I've been promoting the entire time.
Unforgiven_ve is the reason I changed my vote. I really suggest you go through his filter and can explain his behavior. It felt off to more than just me: Even you express discomfort at his behavior but ultimately side with a Suki lynch to create a lynch, same as I. You on the other hand don't even attempt to convince us of your "stronger" read.
On June 02 2012 06:34 s0Lstice wrote: This is chaos. We are badly split up right now. The only chance we have at a majority now as I see it is Suki.
Ange777 made some good points about him, but then flung shit at everybody who continued to question her. I asked for analysis, there was enough time and plenty of content in the past to comment on. Instead you made a snap judgement on unforgiven and then basically insta tunneled him.
I hate how this day is ending. Heist, if Suki flips scum, you're in deep. You came in late and changed your vote to another pointless vote, splitting us further.
I'm in an awkward position because I've suspected both Suki and Unforgiven. Vivax makes a good point about suspecting both being logically unsound. With that said, I'm not feeling too great about Suki being lynched, as my read on unforgiven is stronger.
I just don't see the Unforgiven lynch happening today. It has to be Suki, here and now, or nobody.
## unvote ## Vote: Suki
Your last few points: I've already given reasoning why a Unforgiven vote was not useless (check my filter after my final vote).
And of course I was last, I wasn't convinced but a NL was worse. What else could happen?
Lastly, there was no guarantee that Suki would have been lynched had I not done so. Xatalos's vote and his assurance to create a lynch comes AFTER I've placed my vote, which was already last minute (look at the timing).
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I am looking for a replacement for Ange777
If someone knows someone willing to play shoot me a pm about it. If I can't find a replacement within 48 hours I will have to modkill I'm looking for a replacement myself as well but I'm not really in touch with new guys a lot and I doubt most of the guys with 1 to 3 games are checking the replacement thread
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Well, I was wrong about the night kill as well...... But it's too WIFOM to speculate why they shot s0Lstice instead of Ange777 (a more dangerous player? with better reads? fear of the Medic? to cause misleading speculation like that?) so I'm going to just focus on the fact that s0Lstice is now confirmed town (although I had him as a likely town in my list anyway). Here are my thoughts on all players in a summarised fashion - from least suspicious to most suspicious:
s0Lstice
Verdict: confirmed town
Ange777
Initially a lurker, but soon after becoming active she managed to push through the lynch on a (now) confirmed Mafia. This shows that she has both the analytic skills to catch Mafia and unarguably also the willingness to use these skills in practice. I see absolutely zero reason to lynch her at this time.
Verdict: very likely town
sciberbia
Started the game fearlessly by sharing all his thoughts and suggestions. Then proceeded to push Suki, a (now) confirmed Mafia. Committed to the push and didn't hesitate or state vague opinions. I don't see any reason to lynch him either at this point.
Verdict: very likely town
Vivax
Started sharing his thoughts and reads right away with transparency and clarity. Pushed the lurkers very hard to make them post. Overall, strongly townie way to start the game. Responded to pressure with this:
On June 01 2012 05:51 Vivax wrote: Alright, now to my next defense: I'm one of the most, if not the most active poster in this game so far. Assuming that I survive this day or night while being mafia, my posts make me so transparent that I wouldn't survive day 2 for certain. In that case, I would have played mafia like an idiot. Also cause I'm exposing myself quite extremely. Whoever should be proven wrong for promoting the case against me in case I get lynched will most likely get in trouble the next day, cause I will flip town.
I agree with the content of this post: his playstyle is unsuitable for Mafia and would expose him soon enough. However, one could say that his playstyle actually HAS exposed him... Looking at how many are considering lynching him right now. So this defense isn't as good anymore as I thought it was at the time, although I still agree with the idea behind it.
He continues to be aggressive towards lurkers, and strongly defends players like sciberbia and suki. This all reads town to me - although suki turned out to be Mafia, it would be more natural to be vague, slightly defensive or even slightly hostile toward your teammate instead of this strong defense. The problem I see is that he doesn't really post his insights into the suspicions against Suki, but just brushes them off as obviously wrong like this:
On June 02 2012 04:53 Vivax wrote: I just went through sukis' filter, and I would STRONGLY consider him to be town. I see his defense as valid and his efforts as sincere, that said, the people pushing the case against him are either misleaded townies or mafia. And saying he's bandwagoning on Ange777's case is nonsense, he was among the first if not the first.
I don't see any pure Mafia agenda behind this, but it doesn't look townie either. Why would he just state that Suki is obviously town without evidence as Mafia? It doesn't really help Suki, but it just makes himself look worse. On the other hand, I don't see why he would do this as town either.
He continues to defend Suki while attacking Ange777 at the same time. This seems like too reckless for a Mafia Vivax, in my opinion, especially since it started looking more and more likely that the Ange777 lynch was not happening and that Suki was the only possible lynch option. Why not just bus Suki to look better, since it was useless to defend Suki at that point? I'm not seeing fear or survival instincts in his play, even though I don't get his reasons for wanting to lynch Ange777 instead of Suki in that situation. Ange777 was clearly being active and helpful, while Suki was nowhere to be seen (or hiding). And his main reason for lynching Ange777 there was... lurking. What?? She stopped lurking hours ago. Lurking was not a valid reason to lynch her anymore.
Then there's this more recent post:
On June 02 2012 07:22 Vivax wrote: I doubt I can change things now that I'm proven dead wrong. No, I'm not dead. There still are lurkers.
I will keep scumhunting and ignore accusations against me day 2 simply because I might not be able to defend myself in the light of this event and I don't want to waste energy on it.
This seems a bit too defeatist for my tastes. Why does he automatically assume that the lynch has to be between himself and lurkers (Superouman or Golden, I guess?). It just feels wrong that he considers himself so "guilty" just for opposing a Mafia lynch. It doesn't fit well with the style of play he started the game with.
I had a strong town read on Vivax during Day 1, but after reading through his filter now, I can't anymore put him as a strong town read. Still, considering his strong early game, I'd be willing to give him another chance.
Verdict: slightly townie
Unforgiven_ve
I'm not going to spend my focus on him right now, since it feels unlikely he would be teamed up with Suki. It's possible they went for a double bus, but the simpler and cleaner explanation is that they just wanted to get each other lynched, which would mean Unforgiven_ve is town. I'll put my suspicions for him on hold unless he does something that makes me reconsider the issue.
Verdict: neutral
Eishi_Ki
Hasn't really committed to anything of his own, instead has quite passively followed the flow of the thread. His only vote so far is for Ange777, the lurker - the safest possible vote target. This could all mean cautious Mafia, but also unsure townie. I definitely want to see something more from him in order to get a solid read.
Verdict: neutral
ShiaoPi
Not much to say about him. Generally I dislike replacements, since they mess up the reads and kind of "reset" suspicions for the player (a very useful fact for Mafia). But I don't really have any solid read on ShiaoPi at the moment. I want to see him start contributing as soon as possible.
Verdict: neutral
Superouman
Certainly the most frustrating player in the game. Hardcore lurking, unhelpful posts, useless voting (without any reasoning)... It's almost impossible to tell if he's Mafia or town. If I was a Vigilante, I would shoot him without a doubt, but since we don't have one in this setup, he can just continue doing whatever he wants. A part of me wants to policy lynch him, but it would probably be counterproductive by slowing down the Mafia hunt and analysis.
Verdict: neutral
Miltonkram
Started by sharing some strong opinions on policy topics. However, policies are pretty much the easiest possible discussion topic for Mafia. Once he started talking about player reads, he's immediately hesitant and indecisive:
On May 31 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote: With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town?
Why would he ask "thoughts town?" before showing his own opinion on the issue (whether sciberbia is Mafia or not)? This just seems incredibly out of place and wary about attracting any negative attention. Then he posts this:
On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote: Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia
He doesn't even say if sciberbia is Mafia or not! He just says that he "doesn't have the best interests of the town at heart". This is a very vague statement that can mean many things: sciberbia might be Mafia, he might be a misguided townie, he might be... well, anything except an optimally playing townie. This accusation is so vague and non-committing that there is basically no risk in saying it. Next up is this:
On May 31 2012 16:13 Miltonkram wrote: Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies.
This shows perfectly how vague and non-committing his "case" was in the first place. Miltonkram backs off immediately after seeing some sort of a non-suspicious response. He even apologizes at the end of his post for no reason. Why would he apologize for (softly) accusing someone if he thought the accusation had any merit in the first place?
After closely examining Miltonkram's filter up to this point I started to feel like I had just nailed a Mafia, but his later posts start to be more decisive and logical overall. While reading his later posts, I don't get the same suspicious feeling as from his early posts. It's possible he was coached in the MafiaQT on how to post more convincingly, or then he genuinely started to improve with his reads and style of expressing himself. I'll have to see more from him to make a decision.
Verdict: neutral
Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close. If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
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I'm dedicating this post to analyze the death of s0Lstice
I expect you all to be quite skeptical of NK analysis (as you should be), but I think it's worth at least 1 post.
What are mafia objectives in a NK? + Show Spoiler + 1) not hit the same person that the medic chooses to save 2) hit blues 3) hit townies that everyone has a strong town-read on 4) hit good townies 5) hit townies that are on the right track
How does the choice of s0lstice fit in with these objectives? + Show Spoiler + 1) was not a likely medic save in my opinion 2) was not especially likely to be blue 3) I'd estimate him at #3 least likely to ever be lynched 4) I think s0lstice demonstrated he was a pretty good townie 5) We should look at his filter
Overall, I think s0lstice was a pretty smart hit and had good reason to die regardless of how good his reads were. So I don't want to put too much weight on them. However, it seems foolish not to at least look at his filter.
s0lstice's reads + Show Spoiler + I don't think that these reads are that relevant because they were popular opinions - He didn't want to lynch ange - He pretty strongly read me as town - He wasn't a big fan of unforgiven
Some of his more controversial reads: 1) His very strong accusation of heist 2) He defended cattivik quite strongly 3) Was rather suspicious of miltonkram
You may call it WIFOM, but I feel that s0lstice wouldn't have died if too many of his reads were wrong. If you're willing to assume he was right on at least two of three, you can conclude that Cattivik is town. Now, this is no small assumption, but I think it's slight evidence in Cattivik's favor. It also makes me slightly more suspicious of miltonkram. It doesn't really change my opinion on heist because that one seems like pure WIFOM.
It's obviously nothing definitive, but I think we'll be able to make more sense of this kill once we see a few more flips, so don't forget about it.
Well this analysis admittedly didn't turn out to be as fruitful as I had expected but I still think it's worth posting. RIP s0Lstice.
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This will be my post about heist
I'd honestly be really surprised if heist isn't mafia. Read s0lstice's case on him - it's pretty good. I've read through heist's filter and found a lot of stuff that seems scummy to me. I'm just going to highlight some previous points I find particulary damning as well as add a couple of pieces of evidence.
Circumstancial evidence surrounding suki's first post + Show Spoiler +Recall this part of my accusation of suki + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote: Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote: Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure... Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later: On May 31 2012 12:47 heist wrote: You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones. So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened: + Show Spoiler + suki: hi guys. im roleblocker. sorry im late heist: suki you should make a post b4 you get accused of lurking *suki makes post*
This takes 9 minutes: suki: okay I just made a pretty big first post *heist skims it* heist: why do you make such a big deal out of that vote? suki: what do you mean? heist: you realize he'll probably just unvote right? suki: oh shit. you can unvote? heist: yea. It's ok: you're just noob. nobody will care. suki: well should i correct myself? heist: Just ask if you can unvote. Then I'll answer it.
This takes 4 minutes: suki: k. just did heist: ok I answered it. Nobody will ever suspect anything.
Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below.
Heist's comments on suki + Show Spoiler +Pay attention to the timestamps On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I am not completely convinced about Suki...
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote: Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch. On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. On June 02 2012 06:37 heist wrote: I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. On June 02 2012 06:43 heist wrote: BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent. On June 02 2012 06:55 heist wrote: I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now. In summary - he is first "not completely convinced" - now suki reads town to him - now it looks like vivax is bussing suki - now he's not very confident in a suki lynch - he's much more convinced ange is town than suki - he didn't think suki is mafia the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me. Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy.
suki's comments on heist + Show Spoiler +
heist's latest slip + Show Spoiler +I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense. On June 03 2012 09:53 heist wrote: That is the crux of my argument. He (Vivax) spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch. Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town". If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't. If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie. I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie. Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis.
Does anyone actually think heist is townie? I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie?
##Vote heist
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On June 03 2012 16:03 sciberbia wrote:This will be my post about heistI'd honestly be really surprised if heist isn't mafia. Read s0lstice's case on him - it's pretty good. I've read through heist's filter and found a lot of stuff that seems scummy to me. I'm just going to highlight some previous points I find particulary damning as well as add a couple of pieces of evidence. 1. Circumstancial evidence surrounding suki's first post + Show Spoiler +Recall this part of my accusation of suki + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote: Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote: Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure... Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later: On May 31 2012 12:47 heist wrote: You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones. So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened: + Show Spoiler + suki: hi guys. im roleblocker. sorry im late heist: suki you should make a post b4 you get accused of lurking *suki makes post*
This takes 9 minutes: suki: okay I just made a pretty big first post *heist skims it* heist: why do you make such a big deal out of that vote? suki: what do you mean? heist: you realize he'll probably just unvote right? suki: oh shit. you can unvote? heist: yea. It's ok: you're just noob. nobody will care. suki: well should i correct myself? heist: Just ask if you can unvote. Then I'll answer it.
This takes 4 minutes: suki: k. just did heist: ok I answered it. Nobody will ever suspect anything.
Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below. 2.Heist's comments on suki + Show Spoiler +Pay attention to the timestamps On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote: I am not completely convinced about Suki...
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote: Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch. On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. On June 02 2012 06:37 heist wrote: I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. On June 02 2012 06:43 heist wrote: BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent. On June 02 2012 06:55 heist wrote: I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now. In summary - he is first "not completely convinced" - now suki reads town to him - now it looks like vivax is bussing suki - now he's not very confident in a suki lynch - he's much more convinced ange is town than suki - he didn't think suki is mafia the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me. Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy. 3.suki's comments on heist + Show Spoiler +4. heist's latest slip + Show Spoiler +I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense. On June 03 2012 09:53 heist wrote: That is the crux of my argument. He (Vivax) spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch. Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town". If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't. If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie. I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie. Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis. Does anyone actually think heist is townie?I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie? ##Vote heist
It's looking more and more like I'm going to be spending day 2 defending myself with no one acknowledging anything I've written.
Let's go through this shall we? I've numbered your points:
1. Suki doesn't realize you can change your vote. I correct his mistake. And that's your first point? Are you serious? Did you really just make up an entire conversation out of nowhere. Why would I reply to him in thread if I "corrected him in mafia QT" as you claim I did? If Suki doesn't respond, that's not my problem. I don't control what he's doing. Pure pure speculation.
2. When I said I'm not completely convinced about Suki, you completely misinterpreted it. I was referring to the fact I was not convinced to the accusation against him MEANING that my opinion of him was town, not mafia. So yes, Suki reads town (me staying consistent). I was never, never convinced in the Suki lynch. The dilemma for me was that both Ange77 and Suki seemed town to me. Why did I ultimately side with Ange77? because after her recent set of posts, she was leaving me a pretty big impression of town while Suki was absent the entire lynch.
I looked back at the Cattivik's bussing comment. I was referring to the fact that I think Cattivik is mafia (and I have been for pretty much all D1) and that's why I used the word "bussing".
3. Great. Suki didn't comment on me. What do you want me to say? This is completely outside of my control. I can't really say anything about this and you know it. Non point.
4. I don't think I'm completely comprehending what you are trying to say here. Too many what ifs. How are you construing my argument so that I believe Vivax is a bad townie? I DO think Vivax is mafia and I've been trying to make my case all game.
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From Xatalos:
Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
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@heist Perhaps I should have been more clear. The points in my post are not the only things I find suspicious about your filter. I'm just not going to repeat and rehash a lot of the stuff s0Lstice said earlier. I just added 3 new pieces of circumstantial evidence as well as emphasized a part of everyone else's arguments that I find particularly damning.
Of course it's possible that you are townie. I'm not going to be able to definitively prove to you that you must be mafia. Honestly, if I am wrong about you, which I concede is a possibility, you've been the victim of an extremely unlucky set of circumstances (such as not knowing the meaning of "bussing"). What's more likely than an unlikely set of circumstances? That you are mafia. This is why I am voting you.
Arguing with somebody's defense usually isn't very productive because you'll never be able to convince them that they're mafia (obviously). Nevertheless, I feel obliged to explain my points because you seem rather ticked off about them.
+ Show Spoiler + 1. Yes I agree it's pure speculation. But mafia is all about speculation. I speculated that suki was corrected by a fellow mafia in the mafia QT. This seems rather likely to me now, especially considering that suki didn't acknowledge my question. You seem to be a likely candidate for the person that corrected him, given that you were online at the time, and posting in the thread 4 minutes later. So, this is some circumstantial evidence for you being mafia.
2. To me, "not completely convinced" by an argument says that you think there is some credence to it, but you're not completely sure. Otherwise you would just say "not convinced" or even say it's a bad argument. Saying "not completely convinced" is the sort of wishy/washy thing typical of scum players trying to defend their buddies.
The standard definition of bussing is a mafia accusing another mafia. So by saying that you think cattivik is bussing suki, you were saying that you thought both were scum. I suppose it's possible that you actually don't know the definition, but this has to be counted as evidence against you.
3. Scum, especially newbie scum, tend not to address their scumbuddies as much as would be natural. It's further (admittedly not the best) evidence against you. I understand it's frustrating that you can't actually say anything to explain his lack of posts concerning you, but this doesn't mean it's not evidence.
4. In reference to Vivax, you said that I am "someone who he can't possibly know is town." If Vivax were mafia, he would know that I am town. So you inadvertently implied that Vivax is townie. I admit it's a bit nit-picky but I could see why a mafia heist would likely make that mistake. Of course, it is possible that a town heist would also make that mistake, but it's just another piece of evidence, not the entire basis of my argument. I probably did not explain this point very well and I'm interested to see if anyone agrees with me on it.
I'm going to sleep. Won't be posting for at least 8 hours.
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On June 03 2012 16:32 heist wrote:From Xatalos: Show nested quote + Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior.
It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case:
The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman.
Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me.
So much for my townread on heist.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
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On June 04 2012 02:03 ShiaoPi wrote: On another related note. Did everybody just bury the huge case of Ange on Vivax? I can actually agree with a lot of that and Vivax' behaviour just before the lynch and after it until now really do not translate as townie to me...You all seem to have a high townread on Vivax, mind elaborating why? I really do not share that sentiment.
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
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I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne.
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Just an update: I found someone who is willing to play but he's already playing in another game. If I don't get someone else willing to play I will replace Ange777 with him instead of modkilling at 22:30 GMT (+00:00). That should be exactly 24 hours short of the voting deadline and should be sufficient time given the situation. If I get a pm from someone else willing to play I will give priority to people not in a game, that's why I'm waiting a little right now
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Been spending a lot of time looking through the filters. The way I see it there are three people who look really bad for their voting patterns at the end of D1, heist, Vivax and Xatalos. Heist and Vivax have been attacking each other pretty mercilessly, but I don't think we've spent enough time analyzing Xatalos's play. If you look through his filter he does a great job of "contributing" while taking soft stances and bandwagoning.
I'm putting together a larger case against him, but it's going to take me a little bit.
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austinmcc is replacing Ange777
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Welcome austinmcc!
Thanks for playing Ange777! Despite being inactive most of D1, you really came back and contributed later on. Hopefully I'll get to play more games with you in the future.
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Hello all. I'll be replacing ange777, and was following along somewhat so I can hopefully be helpful relatively quickly. Let me reread things once or twice, and I'll get some comments out tonight or tomorrow (EST) so that I'm not deadweight during this day.
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Welcome austinmcc! Thanks for playing Ange777.
Here is my brief opinion on several players. heist: everything points to him being mafia. my hands-down top choice for today vivax: I'm going to review his case but I still think he's probably town Xatalos: not interested in lynching him today miltonkram: I've been conflicted about him all game long.. still not sure what to think golden/shiaopi: Suspicious. Did nobody notice golden's really scummy defense of suki after my initial accusation?
Realistically, who are we going to lynch today? It looks like it will be between heist and vivax. I think heist is the far better choice. I'll review both cases and post more of my reasoning.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
welcome aboard austinmcc! Nice to see yet another familiar face
While we are discussing our lynchtarget come the next deadline we obviously have vivax/heist/Xatalos on the list right now. I would also consider our resident lurkers eishi and superouman. Both have not contributed much yet and superouman has disappeared completely after his wtf-vote on sciberbia...
If you two are here, gogo start posting!
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