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Newbie Mini XV - Page 19

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Unforgiven_ve
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Venezuela1232 Posts
June 02 2012 00:30 GMT
#361
danm, i just noticed, the las post i made from my phone didnt got here.

My main suspect, is a tie: Heis / Xatalos

One of them is mafia, i dont think both are scum because his way of play would just be ridiculous, being overagressive since the begging

-------------
s0Lstice, dont make personal anything i write here, its just a game...you will see more "name calling" from me, so relax
:)
Unforgiven_ve
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Venezuela1232 Posts
June 02 2012 00:56 GMT
#362
Im sure im gonna die tonight (Xalatos, that means GAME's night ;D sorry), Possible escenarios for me

suki mafia, xalatos town: suki just used my "town leader" missunderstanding to try and push a mislynch on anyone Xalatos had on sight, he wanted to get a bandwagon rolling as long it werent on any of his friends, the other two mafias waited to see if this worked to jump at last hour.

suki mafia, Xalatos mafia: They accorded in their QT they would try to take "town leadership" to their own, Xalatos states a case, suki pushed it, some other couple townies fall for this, and the 3rd mafia joins to guarantee a mayority Because my post are a bit(lot?) confusing to townies, they want to use this to gain some advantage, leaving me alive and triying to get Ange777 instead.

suki mafia, heist town: heist missread everything i posted and just falls for the starting random post against me, he even dedicates a lines to me + Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote:
@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this.
Thanks to this post i made my acussation against suki and started to get more agressive, thank you! He then casta vote to superouman and later falls for teh case against me.


suki mafia, heist mafia
this is where it gets interesting, His first post a some random tips to me, attacks some random townies, wants to look "neutral" when my case was starting to get some heat, when things seemed to reach a finishing point, he drops this pearl

+ Show Spoiler +
You are literally going after everyone who has found you suspicious. And these are all pretty weak claims.

You start going off on Ange77 for "siding with you too strongly"? I think you are taking bandwaggoning a bit too far. She had her own analysis.

You somehow tie together both suki and ange77 as mafia scum? What???

You explicitly state that you are going to disregard Solstice and don't bother to defend yourself.

I am not completely convinced about Suki and the main accusation right now seems to refer to the switch vote to Ange77. We decided we wanted a day 1 lynch. We needed a majority. Perhaps he wanted to lay down his vote incase he missed the deadline. Bandwaggoning I find is useless accusation in and of itself. In a complete body of work it can greatly support a claim. But we need this majority for a lynch and I can completely see him changing his vote with Unforgiven's case rapidly losing steam.

My vote is currently useless. I will be changing to Unforgiven_ve. His recent behavior is really undermining my previous judgment.

##Unvote
##Vote: Unforgiven_ve


You know, just cassually voting to the main (innocent) target at the time...and then one hour before deadline, he cast his vote against suki, because you know, he said MANY TIMES lynching is preferably to nothing and he had to stand by his word ... im already seeing the mafia QT "HEY SUKI IM SORRY, WE NEED TO WINZ LOLZ"

That makes him slightly higher on my list.

FoS (and pretty sure vote, at least something really weird happens or if im alive at day 2) heist

As always, if you dont understand something and/or want to ask something, please do. i'll be checking from my phone tonight
:)
Unforgiven_ve
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Venezuela1232 Posts
June 02 2012 00:58 GMT
#363
On June 02 2012 08:32 s0Lstice wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 02 2012 07:38 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Lolz, I rule, bunch of noobs


This is just rude. Cut it out. It takes 7 votes to lynch someone, and you spent the time before the lynch flopping around like a fish out of water, reduced to pleading for votes. It's not our fault you drew so much suspicion for playing like shit.


may i remind you, pleading for votes to get a mafia(roleblocker) at D1, read my last post, and make a better one please, it worked one time, why not twice ;D
:)
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
June 02 2012 01:22 GMT
#364
Play nice please.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 01:33 GMT
#365
This is the last I'm going to say on this. It has nothing to do with this Mafia game. I'm even going to spoiler it.
Unforgiven
+ Show Spoiler +
Do you see anybody else here calling other people names? Want to know why it's just you? Because you're being an asshole. Assholes insult people, and then tell them not to take it personal, like that makes it ok. This being a game doesn't give you license to be condescending and disrespectful. In fact, it's the opposite. If you want respect, you show respect. I can't speak for everyone else, but for me, you have made this game less fun with your recent posts.


ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 01:35 GMT
#366
EBWOP: sorry zelblade, didnt refresh before posting that. if you want me to edit it out I will
ATOBTTR
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
June 02 2012 01:37 GMT
#367
Its fine.

Both of you drop this now.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 02 2012 01:55 GMT
#368
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote:
I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.



@Xatalos
I disagree that I avoided the thread. If you really want to know, here is how my day went:
+ Show Spoiler +

- I woke up about 5 hours before the deadline.
- I spent about 2 hours reading the thread and making some posts.
- I was AFK for about two hours.
- I returned with less than an hour left. I made a post and followed the thread until the deadline.


About not being in the spotlight
+ Show Spoiler +

By nature, I'm not aggressive, emotional, or overly sure of myself, so I may not have been as "in the spotlight" as other players such as Vivax, Ange, Unforgiven. But, I think I contributed all my relevant opinions to the discussion and tried to steer us on the right track. Not sure what else you really wanted from me.


In response to your demand for substance to atone for my 2 hours AFK, I think I've been providing substance all game, and I intend to continue to do so.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 03:32 GMT
#369
Concerning Heist, I want to get this case out there on the off chance that I am the N1 kill.

Lets have a look at what he has been doing to hunt scum:

+ Show Spoiler +
For most of day 1, he has had one target, and that is Vivix.

His first accusation against him contained the following points: a perceived contradiction, and his views/defense of sciberbia.

This is the contradiction. Vivix says he sees the reason behind sciberbia's no-lynch argument, but still prefers to lynch. Seeing the logic and worthyness of considering of an idea, but still coming down on the other side of it is not a contradiction, provided you supply the reasons for doing so. Vivix does; he says he still wants to lynch to get rid of lurkers right off the bat or act on a strong scum read, and get lynch information earlier rather than later.

His views and defense on sciberbia have been covered a lot, so I'll just say one thing about this. Vivix has been steadfast in his convictions consistently. At the time, the sample size was small and no pattern had developed yet, so the suspicion is warranted. As the game goes on however, nobody should be surprised that Vivix was so sure on his first town read. He is consistently steadfast in all of his opinions.

Moving on. He posts some filler before addressing Vivix again. The filler is basically asking Eishi_Ki to clarify his thoughts on Vivix, asks Vivix to post more, and pressures the lurkers. Nothing really scummy here, he is just doing due diligence on his case.

His second address to Vivix has one repeated point and one new one: Vivix' sure read on sciberbia, and his hasty vote on Eishi_Ki. His read on sciberbia I've talked about already...his vote on Eishi_Ki represented his first scum hunting target. He went after him full force and voted. Again, these are consistent with Vivix' aggressive play. He defends a town read aggressively, and pursues a scum read aggressively.

Next he addresses someone new, and its Unforgiven. He chimes in with his thoughts, which is fine. It's the current subject matter. He uses a lot of words to say that he agrees on the suspicions, but will reserve judgement. It's a very safe stance. He follows this up with further safe pressure on the lurkers.

His third address to Vivix. He again uses a lot of words to say basically: I don't agree that your high activity and extremeness makes you absolutely town, and you may be doing it to obscure the scummy things you do. This is trumped up WIFOM + Show Spoiler +
Vivix as scum thinks, I'll be careful but still contribute. But wait! That is what they are expecting! I'll be aggressive to throw them off my trail. But wait, maybe they are expecting me to expect that so I'll be more careful. But wait! etc etc
There's a reason constant aggression reads as town: because in more cases than not, it is town.

His fourth address to Vivix. He harps again on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia. He keeps driving this point, and damns him for finding a townie and not hunting scum. Except....Vivix has been hunting his top scum read: Eishi_Ki. This just makes no sense. Vivix scum hunt was aggressive and obvious. There is no excuse for ignoring it in this context.

You know who else kept harping on Vivix' opinion of sciberbia? Suki

Something else Suki did was to drop his main suspicion in favor of another target. Heist does this too, stating that he is giving Vivix the benefit of the doubt, and then votes for a lurker. Not the lurker that has had the most buzz going for a policy lynch, but Superouman. Essentially a wasted vote.

In summary:
-Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak point
-his fast read and defense of sciberbia
-WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse
-spending time confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is
-Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and 'wait and see' on Unforgiven
-Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt'
-votes for a lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet


Events surrounding the lynch:
+ Show Spoiler +

I'll start here, when the votes counted thusly:
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 Votecount

Sciberbia (1): Miltonkram, Superouman

Eishi_Ki: Vivax

Unforgiven_ve: Xatalos, Suki

Suki (2): Unforgiven_ve, Sciberbia

Ange777 (5): Miltonkram, Vivax, Xatalos, Eshi_Ki, suki

Superouman (1): Heist


This is shortly after Ange shows up. She takes the time to defend herself some and promises a scum read soon. While she is away doing that, sciberbia makes a post trying to organize everyone onto one person, and the votes on Ange go to 6 when I vote.

Ange comes back and posts her read on Suki. It is solid, compelling, and, as we know now, dead on. She votes Suki right away, giving him 3 votes. Xatalos responds that he likes her contribution, and sciberbia comes back trying to illustrate how lynching suki is the best option for us as a group based on our stated convictions. Unforgiven chimes in to reinforce his Suki vote. I mention as well that her case is pretty good, and combined with all else, would draw my vote if he was our choice.

The atmosphere at was pretty anti-Suki, and only getting worse. With Ange posting a very solid scum read, and a couple people suggesting she should live. If this goes further, Suki would definitely replace Ange as the consensus choice.

Now Ange pursues Unforgiven, and pretty hard too, dropping a quick FoS. Xatalos follows up with his earlier suspicions and votes for him. This is a shake and bake counter movement to the building case on Suki. While this is going on, Suki draws another vote from Milton. That makes 4.

This is when Heist enters, when Suki is in a lot of danger, and there is a counter-movement swelling. He jumps all over Unforgiven. He went from non-commital on Unforgiven to all out war without any in-between, right at the time when the case was countering Suki's. He flat out yells at Vivix to not vote for Suki. He removes his vote on Superouman citing it as useless, only to place it on another useless case that had the third most votes. The only conceivable use it has is to stop the lynch of Suki.

With 12 minutes left, he switches to Suki once it is clear that he is the consensus choice. This gave us majority on Suki, but Xatalos had already agreed that he would vote to ensure a lynch vs a no-lynch if it came to it, so it was going to happen anyway. What it also does is give him some deniability when Suki flipped scum. Not a lot, but some.

In summary:
-swoops in when the pressure on Suki is getting bad
-pursues a useless counter-case vigorously against a player who he has been ambivalent about
-switches his useless vote from one place to another useless place
-was one of the very last to come in to vote for suki


I think he has tied himself pretty strongly to Suki. What do others think about this?
ATOBTTR
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 03:35 GMT
#370
EBWOP: The in-summary section for the scum hunting portion should read as follows:

In summary:
A) Pursues case on Vivix on the basis of three weak points
i) his fast read and defense of sciberbia
ii) WIFOM on how his aggression is a scum ruse
iii) spending time on confirming townies and not hunting scum, even though he is

B) Only other scum hunting is lurker pressure, and a 'wait and see' on Unforgiven

C) Drops his main read on the basis of 'giving the benefit of the doubt'

D) Votes for a Lurker that had no policy lynch buzz as of yet
ATOBTTR
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 02 2012 05:58 GMT
#371
I'm off to bed. Probably won't post again for at least 10 hours. I'm about halfway through rereading the thread and plan to finish before the deadline tomorrow. Night.
Eishi_Ki
Profile Joined April 2009
Korea (South)1667 Posts
June 02 2012 07:37 GMT
#372
Afternoon folks!

Once again, sorry for not being around. First off, I want to apologise to Ange, my accusation was just to qualify a vote for a D1 lynch and you seemed like the most likely candidate by the time I left. However, you fought very well and my decision was regrettable. I am glad it has not adversely affected the game. I am 100% sure you are not a mafioso as it would take a pretty absent goon to finger their most powerful asset. Plus your case was well constructed, cohesive and, though not particularly timely, was convincing.

Regarding Suki, I should have followed through with my suspicions but I was sidetracked. I am sorry about that also.


The result means Unforgiven is more than likely not mafia either as he pleaded with everyone to vote for Suki; same reasoning as Ange.

Now, Xatalos. For one, it's been mentioned multiple times that my timezone means I will not be active close to deadlines, sorry bout that, RL calls and all that, yet you continue to inquire for an explanation for my inactivity. Creating chaos or missed the multiple posts, seems suspicious, care to comment? A very strong defence of Suki in your posts indicate either true ignorance or protection and after Suki was lynched, you comment that your judgement was way off, so you could be wrong again, so tell me, if you can't read people and your certainties are actually false, are you actually that useful? Vivax made the same defence of Suki and my reservations regarding him are seeming more and more well founded
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22098 Posts
June 02 2012 10:48 GMT
#373
Those are really good posts regarding heist, s0lstice, but his reactions in the last hours don't fit into mafia play.

He supported Ange777 and his vote on superouman was against the grain, but only until the majority on suki was possible.

He could have easily blended in on the Ange777 bandwagon and try to get rid of a townie lurker becoming dangerous for the mafia in the last hours.

However, when going further in the filter, something caught my eye:

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote:
Guys I want your opinion on Unforgiven's recent behavior. We only have about an hour and I will not allow a NL.

I find the following suspicious: vivax, unforgiven_ve, superouman. I am comfortable with lynching any of them.

Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch.


6:05 suki reads town to him.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote:
This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777.
To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight.
You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.

##unvote Ange777
##vote suki


Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.

Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.

OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time.
Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?


Looks like we have a scumtell.

The damn deadline is getting close.


If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.


12 minutes later, 'It looks like I am bussing'. Just saying, the choice of words kinda looks strange in light of the previous post, simply because you believe I am bussing when you don't believe he is mafia.
Can't really call his post regarding ridiculousness of the vote a defense of suki cause he just comments on my actions, but I've already announced that I would not risk a NL.

Also people seem to have forgotten about O.Golden_ne, he has been replaced, still his behaviour was more of a lurking one. We have to see if his replacement might end up being mafia.
It's important to not forget about him and go through his filter, which I will do after this post.

Anyway, my updated FoS: heist, Eishi_Ki for being defended by suki and targeting unforgiven, xatalos and me.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 13:21 GMT
#374
You bring up some important things I want to address Vivax

His support of Ange came only after she had started attacking Unforgiven. I feel that's pretty important. Yes she also accused Suki, but Heist was attempting to add his voice to her case on Unforgiven to make it appear more attractive. He supports the driving force in the counter-movement to Suki's lynch (Ange's argument on Unforgiven), and also goes after her target with gusto. Both things contribute to stop the lynch of Suki. He was doing everything in his power to make the case on Unforgiven gain leverage.

Also, about him easily blending in on the Ange777 bandwagon. When she came in and started posting, that bandwagon lost a lot of steam. It became increasingly clear to him, as it did to me, that the Ange777 lynch was not going to happen in light of her last minute heroics. The pressure had definitely shifted to Suki as the next best lynch target, and Heist had to jump in and do his best to abate the movement to his scumbuddy.

Lastly, you say his Superouman vote was only in place until a Suki majority was possible. This would be fine if he had switched to Suki, but he didn't. He switched to the case with the 3rd most number of votes. Again, the only explanation I can find for this is to stop the lynch on Suki.

The contradiction you bring up is interesting, and I had missed it. It makes it seem more likely that his thoughts on Suki being town were just posturing, considering how quickly he abandons the thought.



ATOBTTR
O.Golden_ne
Profile Joined August 2010
Australia204 Posts
June 02 2012 13:21 GMT
#375
sorry all. epic fail on my behalf. girls + booze + friday = waking up saturday morning thinking - a) where am i. and b) oh no everyone at Mafia game will hate me. gl. gg
Like a baneling in a mineral line
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 13:22 GMT
#376
gg golden
ATOBTTR
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 02 2012 17:52 GMT
#377
Ange777, are you there? I think you're the most likely night kill at this point, so you should focus on sharing your reads before the deadline hits. Vivax is your top suspect, but your reasoning isn't fleshed out yet. And really, I'm not convinced that Vivax is Mafia. But I was wrong about Suki, so...

I'm going to be offline for a bit, but I'm almost ready to post a case on my top read. I just want to first see the night kill and possible new posts by him. I doubt my read is going to change at this point though, unless something dramatic happens (such as him being shot or suddenly becoming a convincing townie player). But everything is connected, and I feel like it would be a waste to post lengthy analysis of the game right now, since I don't know why Mafia would shoot me instead of Ange777.

If you think you might be shot now, though, go ahead and share your views before it's too late. Just a few hours before Mafia make their move.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22098 Posts
June 02 2012 19:15 GMT
#378
I announced I would go through O.Golden_ne's posts:
+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&currentpage=6#103

O.Golden_ne's filter mostly coincides with that of heist when it comes to changing and setting trends.
To his defense, he didn't question my read regarding sciberbia=townie as much as suki and heist.
Not so good: He acknowledged mafia first post is improbable, however he didn't produce any information regarding the matter by himself, he grappled onto miltonkram's opinion instead.

+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&currentpage=8#142

I'm especially interested in his voting pattern in this post. He has 2 lurkers, me and unforgiven_ve while there's a bandwagon forming on him initially pushed by s0lstice and Xatalos, while now he's a confirmed townie.


I've ignored the next two posts which were basically mudthrowing. Feel free to look em up.

+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&currentpage=10#196

Quite decisive post, he tries the same maneuver as heist and wants to deflect attention from suki.
You might think now, I've done that too. There is a difference between my behavior and that of heist and O.Golden:
First of all, heist and O.Golden never say that suki might be town like I did.
If that's not keeping one's head low, I don't know, they preferred to emphasize the importance of a lurker lynch instead of attacking the case on suki like I did, which would bite you in the ass later if you were mafia. It's just safer play for scum.
You know my style, I'm posting a lot, I'm aggressive, I don't fear making mistakes when I'm completely sure of my case.

Then I have been pushing the D1 lynch on Ange777 from the start, heist preferred to vote for another lurker (superouman)...And O.Golden_ne didn't vote at all. He still had plenty of time to vote, but he kept lurking until his party evening, while stirring suspicions against other players, never taking a hard stance.


+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&currentpage=9#178

This is one of my analysis posts. Look how i resume that suki actually supported some of the pressure on Eishi_Ki, I forgot his stance on Eishi when lynch time came and got fooled into believing he's townie.

This is his stance on Eishi_Ki:

Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.

The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.

In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.



With the last points I'm SURE that I've made another mistake when it comes to Eishi_Ki, the mafia didn't fear to deflect attention to him and Eishi_Ki also called out suki in the beginning, I think even before Unforgiven_ve.

Eishi_Ki, excuse me for trying to prove you guilty so hard, but it also has good sides, we now know the remaining two mafia members:

Heist & ShiaoPi replacing O.Golden_ne

Ange777
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Germany1164 Posts
June 02 2012 19:54 GMT
#379
I read the case against heist, it has some very good points and got me thinking about him but I have not checked his filter myself yet. In the meantime I am going to post a detailed case on Vivax before deadline.

♥ Sen - 台灣之光 ♥
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 02 2012 20:13 GMT
#380
Vivix, did you go through Golden's filter from Newbie Mini XIV? He was town in that game, I think it could offer some insight.

I'm not saying it should sway you one way or another, just a suggestion. I need to have a look myself.
ATOBTTR
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