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On June 10 2012 01:32 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote:
Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages. Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him. It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that. austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^ unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
Don't brag too much, hey  You only figured out I was scum because you helped me in a previous game as town... And you also thought Unforgiven_ve was scum... I agree though on Unforgiven_ve, good reads aren't everything, you need much more!
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
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On June 10 2012 01:51 marvellosity wrote:tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
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Haha, I'll be sticking around Marv. Gonna keep it to one game at a time, and probably try Newbie XVII over another full game, but I'm enjoying it despite the incorrect reads. Happy to keep discussing this, I feel like I lost out on some of the game from replacing in, but not enough that I can't learn a bunch from it.
Also, to anyone, the NK stuff kept bugging me since this game ended. I SHOULD have brought it up in thread, and we could have at least discussed it. But I'd like to work through the reasoning, because I didn't like using the NK to factor into the decision.
Either Xat is or Shiao is scum. Neither wants to NK the other, need them alive for the lynch. So they're left choosing between Milton, unforgiven, and me.
I figured I'd be kept up because I'd been so unsure, so I looked like a swing vote that could be convinced one way or the other. For scum ShiaoPi, I had the same read as he did on golden and had found Xatalos scummier than ShiaoPi. For scum Xatalos, I'd come over to lynch heist, and seeing him flip would probably make me rethink my reads and lynch ShiaoPi.
That leaves Unforgiven and Milton. Xatalos needs to shoot Unforgiven, because Unforgiven was looking between he and I for the final scum. ShiaoPi needs to shoot Milton, who was sure the final mafia was Shiao, and can't shoot Unforgiven, because Unforgiven indicated he'd be willing to jump on the Xatalos lynch.
Given that, should I have actually factored the NK in? I figured each player had such an obvious target that the NK was pure WIFOM. Scum Option A's optimal target got NKed, but the target was obvious to Scum Option B, but it was obvious that it was obvious, etc. etc.
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Xatalos, thanks for pointing out the mistakes you think you made. It's always interesting seeing where mafia feel like they went wrong. Looking back I definitely didn't put enough pressure on you. I saw a few things that I thought were scummy, but I didn't have much faith in my scumhunting abilities.
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Here's some of my thoughts on the last NK.
I think that, in an optimal metagame, you adjust your own reads by giving a bit of weight to the reads of people who were NK'd. Of course, you don't entirely base decisions off of NKs. But if you choose to always completely ignore them, mafia will just always kill people with good reads and influence the game in their favor. That's not a metagame in equilibrium. Given that metagame, town should start to put a lot of stock into NKs, which would force mafia to start being less predictable, which would force town to only put a little stock in NKs, which is a more balanced metagame. This is why putting stock into the NK of unforgiven makes sense.
It was clear to me that whichever 3 townies were remaining on the last day might WIFOM around a bit, but ultimately would not switch their reads based on the NK. I think this was clear to everyone, which is both why we got screwed over, and why you can consider the NK of unforgiven evidence against Xatalos.
It was pretty obvious that the final lynch was going to be between Xatalos and Shiaopi. If neither of them were mafia, town had pretty much no chance, so you might as well assume it was one of them. Here were the primary targets:
Xatalos: targets Shiaopi
Milton: targets Shiaopi
austinmmc: targets Shiapoi
unforgiven: targets Xatalos
shiapoi: targets Xatalos
If we are assuming that nobody gives any weight to the NK, then
a NK of milton/austinmcc will be 50% Xatalos lynch, 50% shiaopi lynch
a NK of ufnorgiven will be 100% shiaopi lynch
There's no way in hell that a mafia shiaopi would NK unforgiven at the end. No way. He's not going to bet the game that you guys suddenly put a ton of stock into NK analysis when you had previously shown no interest. He'd rather settle for his 50/50 chances that unforgiven would be more stubborn than miltonkram/austinmcc (not a bad bet).
On the other hand, a kill of unforgiven makes perfect sense for Xatalos. Based on everyone's behavior up to the end of the game, it was a pretty safe bet that you guys were going to just say WIFOM and ignore the NK, assuring a shiaopi lynch.
Hence, the NK unforgiven is good evidence against Xatalos, given our unstable metagame of always ignoring NKs
The underlying problem IMO is the refusal throughout the game to analyze NKs at all. I think WIFOM is very misunderstood/misapplied there. If we had shown interest in analyzing NKs from the start, Xatalos might have thought twice about killing Unforgiven at the end. And even if he had, we might have lynched him. Admittedly, it could work against us if Shiaopi is mafia and makes the risky move to kill unforgiven. But this meta is obviously better than letting mafia control us by ignoring their NKs.
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@Xatalos, miltonkram
I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
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On June 10 2012 08:46 sciberbia wrote:
@Xatalos, miltonkram
I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
I might have made a mistake by playing such a townie Mafia... Now when I'm really town, everyone will assume I'm Mafia anyways! xD Damn........
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@Xatalos
What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
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On June 10 2012 09:21 sciberbia wrote:
@Xatalos
What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
I'm doomed xD
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
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On June 10 2012 19:58 marvellosity wrote:
austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
That's a good point in general, but doesn't really apply to this specific situation (in my opinion). I had intentionally urged Miltonkram and austinmcc to make their opinions clear before the night deadline - apparently to "help" them by having their opinions known before they might be killed, but I had a more sinister motive...
Once they had gone through the filters, read the cases, and finally formed their opinions (before Unforgiven_ve would be shot) they were set on lynching ShiaoPi as soon as the deadline passed. It didn't matter anymore that it wouldn't make sense for ShiaoPi to shoot Unforgiven_ve: they just dismissed it as WIFOM by ShiaoPi (meant to make them second-guess).
On the other hand, if they had waited until the deadline to form their final opinion, it might have gone differently. But since they both were online and willing to announce their lynch of choice *before* the night kill, I was pretty certain they wouldn't bend on their opinions anymore!
In this situation, it would make no sense to shoot austinmcc. Unforgiven_ve had already said he would be willing to vote for only me / austinmcc. There's no way he would have voted for ShiaoPi. If I had shot austinmcc, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve would have immediately voted for me. I and Miltonkram would have voted for ShiaoPi. It would have been a stalemate with neither side attaining the majority.
Unforgiven_ve was extremely stubborn and wouldn't listen to any reasoning by me or Miltonkram. He wouldn't state any reasoning himself either: he would just vote for me and continue to post insults and random one liners. ShiaoPi would most certainly not vote for himself either in that situation. That leaves two options:
A) Miltonkram bends to the peer pressure and votes for me. I lose.
B) Miltonkram doesn't bend. The day ends with a no-lynch. I now must shoot Unforgiven_ve or lose, but Miltonkram will think twice as hard about the night kill compared to if I had just shot Unforgiven_ve earlier. I might win or I might lose, but the game takes a lot longer and my chance for victory is smaller. There's also a bigger chance that someone finds more scummy stuff about my filter and Miltonkram gets convinced I'm actually Mafia. Town has more time to discuss and consider the options.
Do you agree with the night kill now, marv?
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I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so.
He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case.
Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end.
Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there 
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On June 10 2012 22:50 Vivax wrote:I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so. He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case. Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end. Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there
On the other hand, Miltonkram and austinmcc would have been even more suspicious of ShiaoPi (if he had tried to WIFOM with the night kill, I mean). It was pretty much GG when Miltonkram and austinmcc made their opinions clear right before the deadline. After that, they were set on lynching ShiaoPi, and it would have required a massive blunder by me to lose... Pretty much
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@Xatalos
I think the NK on unforgiven was certainly your best move at that point, for the reasons you stated. I think I posted something in the obs QT about it before the kill. Yes, it would make me and marv more suspicious of you, but our opinions weren't the ones that counted.
@marv
My point is that the NK of unforgiven is evidence against Xatalos (to us) precisely because none of the remaining townies would realize it's evidence against Xatalos, even though it clearly helped Xatalos.
So yes, xatalos was essentially claiming scum to the obs QT, but the remaining townies, based on their behavior and unstable metagame, were clearly going to lynch shiopi. This is what xatalos was counting on and he was right.
What needed to happen from town's POV is this:
miltonkram/austinmcc think to themselves: now hold on a minute. It's pretty obvious that we're going to ignore the NK. Would scum really bet the game that we suddenly put faith into NKs? Highly doubtful. So we actually should base our decision off the NK given the current meta.
But Xatalos wisely gambled that milton/austinmcc would not suddenly realize the error of their ways. It's an odd situation because the metagame is unstable. See below.
@all
simplified hypothetical instructive scenario
Imagine there are four players left heading into night phase: Unforgiven, Miltonkram, Shiaopi, and Xatalos. Assume Unforgiven and Miltonkram are confirmed innocents, that Unforgiven wants to lynch Xatalos, and that miltonkram wants to lynch shiaopi.
Who does mafia xatalos kill? Here we have complete and total WIFOM. Does he kill the player accusing him or the one defending him. But as we will see, just because this is WIFOMy doesn't mean you can ignore it as a townie.
The relevant question is: how do we expect the remaining townie to react to the NK? In this game, the prevailing logic seems to be "Shit this is the almighty WIFOM. Best play is to ignore WIFOM and proceed with the game as before". The problem with this logic is that if you always do this, then mafia will just NK the player accusing them, and win 100% of the time.
Clearly, town's logic is bad in this scenario. You can't be so predictable and easily manipulated. You'd do much better to flip a coin on the last day, and even better to figure out how the mafia would think you would react, and to do the opposite. It's a battle of wits.
WIFOM is really misunderstood and misapplied. You can't just throw out all evidence that is WIFOMy. It's all about predicting your opponent's moves while being unpredictable yourself.
Don't be terrified of the term WIFOM
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Just thought of a simpler way to state this.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia
If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi
If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have
A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically
B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
or
C) not announce your reads before the NK
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On June 11 2012 02:31 sciberbia wrote:
Just thought of a simpler way to state this.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia
If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi
If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have
A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically
B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
or
C) not announce your reads before the NK
Option A was pretty much impossible in that situation. Unforgiven_ve would never listen to anyone other than himself, and Miltonkram was very convinced that ShiaoPi was Mafia. austinmcc might have been vulnerable to persuasion, but he was also pretty sure ShiaoPi was Mafia. There would be no consensus lynch with such radical differences in opinion.
Option B sounds very reasonable. Town would have probably won the game if it didn't condemn WIFOM and NK analysis as completely useless right away. This allowed us to kill our most dangerous opposers without fear. More importantly, not being so opposed to WIFOM would have made it impossible for me to win the endgame scenario. I considered shooting Miltonkram or austinmcc for WIFOM reasons, which would have made it much harder (or nearly impossible) for me to get ShiaoPi lynched... But I didn't really have to, because everyone hated WIFOM!  Following a strict policy makes it so much easier to manipulate the game without fear of consequences.
Option C is... interesting. Although, realistically, not useful in this case. I already could tell from Unforgiven_ve's earlier posts that he would come after me instead of ShiaoPi, and both Miltonkram and austinmcc had made it clear that they linked heist&ShiaoPi as a potential Mafia team. They didn't really even need to post their reads before the deadline... I just urged them to do that in order to lock them even more into their set opinions. I agree, though, that if everyone said something like "okay, I won't speak anything during night to make the NK harder to choose", it would have made it harder for me to decide. Perhaps someone (austinmcc, specifically) had changed his opinion during the night...? Should I shoot him instead? But I would have still ended up shooting Unforgiven_ve, so only option B is really useful
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Vivax, I really tried to get austin and milton on to my side, but even before the NK they had already decided to lynch me the following day, I really doubt I could have changed any of their minds given the fact how bad Golden's posts and my defense of heist reflected on me.
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Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.
Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On June 11 2012 06:37 austinmcc wrote:
Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.
Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.
Would bringing up the NK really have helped?
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EPT
