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On June 09 2012 09:40 Toadesstern wrote:I was quite busy playing myself while hosting this and only checked for what's in the posts while reading them really fast  Haven't kept up with why people did things that much Marv probably has a better idea on what actually happened lol
Okay Well, some other veteran wanting to make an analysis? Although it would have been most useful right now, before many of the players leave the thread and never look back
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On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_>
Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't  How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On June 09 2012 09:44 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 09:42 ShiaoPi wrote:
Well it should not trust my reads too much I guess. But moving away from heist would have seemed really scummy too (at least in my opinion) so I just thought stick with it until he goes totally bonkers/scummy >_> Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha
By putting too much confidence in your reads xD but yeah dug myself a really nice grave there ^^
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You just didn't really have an option. It WOULD have looked like grasping at straws, but that would have been all scum Shiao had. You bringing up Milton felt the same way.
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Btw, I was considering shooting Miltonkram for a while. In hindsight, I'm VERY glad I decided to shoot Unforgiven_ve I was worried about the WIFOM after Unforgiven_ve's night kill, but it was just that, WIFOM. It wouldn't almost certainly threaten the ShiaoPi mislynch. You two were already convinced he was Mafia at that point.
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On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote:
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list)
- He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play.
- He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move.
- He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls.
I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
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Too bad suki and heist aren't around now. Well, they'll have a pleasant surprise when they read this thread Both sacrificed their lives, especially heist, for us to create that ideal endgame scenario. It was all worth it in the end 
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Well, I really need to get some sleep now, but I'll be checking back later on! GG
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I would do some analysis but it's probably skewed knowing the rolelist from the start -_-
Also unforgiven's reads were pretty impressive, but his problem was that he couldn't convince town. Need to work on communicating your thoughts better ^^ (ofc this could be due to language issues)
I'll post a little more later, but I personally believe town would have won this if not for the modkills. Put you guys in a really rough spot
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Although good reads obviously doesnt give you the right to be a dick. Would be much appreciated if you stop
Since you are annoying a few people.
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My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game:
- 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches
- In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred
- We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance
- imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game.
- finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play
- Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all).
- Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame
- Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
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I'm here, I've been watching pretty much the entire game and taking part in the Obs QT.
I wanted to say that my vote switch to Ange on day 1 was because I was going to be out for the rest of the day, and I wouldn't be on to convince people of my read. I think a lot of people read into that switch more than it should have but it's my fault I didn't say it =D At best it would have kept me alive until Day 2, though. Too much evidence against me :>
Also, I thought we had thrown the game when both heist and xatalos kinda panicked and tried to save me.. it definitely got heist killed but Xatalos managed to spin his actions well. So kudos to xatalos.
Finally, thanks to everyone for making my first mafia game such a nerve-wracking experience. I don't think I had a good night's sleep once the game started, my mind was just so consumed with figuring out how to best play. When I logged on and saw that I was lynched on Day 1, I was surprised but also incredibly relieved. Hahaha.
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Suki,
It's interesting I didn't indict Xatalos for the same reason I did Heist. I think it was probably because he was attacking Unforgiven along with me, and as sciberbia said, his filter was looking pretty town.
Something else important is the danger of making connection assumptions before a flip. I think I auto cleared Xatalos based on my suspicion of heist, because no two scum are going to tunnel the same target to stop their scumbuddy from being lynched, right? And again, he was also attacking my target at the time.
Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
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On June 09 2012 08:42 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 08:38 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Unforgiven
Stop insulting people. There is absolutely no place for it in the after game discussion. ok grandma
lol
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Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages.
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+ Show Spoiler +On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote:
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list)
- He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play.
- He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move.
- He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls. I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end!
You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD
Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
@ suki
I know how you feel. I got picked for scum in my first game too. I know what it feels like to be on the wrong end of sciberbia's analysis. He caught a scumslip by me D1 but couldn't get the lynch. I seriously don't think that guy has ever pointed the town wrong.
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On June 09 2012 11:47 s0Lstice wrote:
Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
Yep Connections are really too WIFOM to base your reads on (Mafia can distance each other, defend each other, bus each other, push the same lynch, push different lynches... you never really know how they're connected!).
On June 09 2012 16:54 Miltonkram wrote:Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler +On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote:
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list)
- He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play.
- He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move.
- He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls. I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end! You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
Thanks Although you should also note that I made mistakes earlier in the game: defended suki visibly (should have bussed in that situation), moderated the thread too much compared to real contributions (look at sciberbia or s0Lstice, they played town correctly), jumped too easily to switch from heist to Vivax (should have shown more commitment to my Mafia read on heist)... Don't make such mistakes and you should be good to go, haha
On June 09 2012 11:28 sciberbia wrote:
My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game:
- 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches
- In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred
- We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance
- imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game.
- finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play
- Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all).
- Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame
- Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
Yeah - I was really surprised by how well the town played! Especially during Day 1, the discussion was extremely active and focused, compared to almost any other game I've played/seen. But the same can be said for Mafia - suki played extremely well for her first game of Mafia, heist played well despite having a long break from Mafia, and of course I managed to convince everyone ShiaoPi was Mafia and win the game xD Haha... Overall, I think this might be at least the newbie game of highest quality I've played/seen so far.
The sad part about this game was, as you said, the modkills and lurking by some players. Had Superouman and Eishi_Ki actually played the game they signed up for, there would have been an additional lynch to use on me after ShiaoPi flipped. BUT I think it's stupid to think like that. If we go to such a hypothetical situation, we could also imagine that suki not being offline for the end of Day 1 would have probably saved her from the lynch (or at least made it easier for us to coordinate and not be exposed like that). If heist hadn't been offline for most of the game (except right before deadlines, haha!!), we might have gotten another mislynch before I had to bus heist. So, it's (IMO) stupid to assume that if the players had been more active, town would have won in the end, since the same can be said for the activity of our Mafia team. All in all, if every player in the game had been active, I'm pretty certain suki wouldn't have been the Day 1 lynch (or at least the lynch wouldn't have exposed me and heist) and the game after that would have been VERY different in many ways.
Indeed, the night kills were very telling. It's good not to base your reads on them, but they should be taken into account at least.
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Unforgiven
Your language skills were fine. Really, they were. Understandable and they made sense, if thats what you were worried about.
Why did you not make lots of big analysis? Why not push your reads further? I mean you were pretty much confirmed all game. There was NO RISK if you made lots of cases. Instead, you spent your time giving snappy 1 liners in a tone that nobody would want to listen to. Your reads were perfect, but nobody will listen to someone who comes across as a jerk.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
shit just got my only interwebz access for the day, my inbox tells me scum won, gonna take a quick read of the last few pages to see how it went down
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote:
Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages.
Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him.
It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that.
austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^
unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
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EPT
