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stefftastiq
Norway205 Posts
About me not having written anything about prplz and dementrio is that Ive felt they have had pretty townish behaviour - Varpulis points out that pprplz started the wagon against sinani, which might be something - altho I was pretty convinced of sinani myself. ill put a pressure vote originalname for now - youngminii still second on my scummylist, what is suspicious is that if scum just "hide" in ON's vote or would they try to find another target if he really is scum? ##Vote: OriginalName | ||
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stefftastiq
Norway205 Posts
Actually the names were all the people that were voting Sinani. unichan was also on that list when you wrote it. Varpulis probably decided later | ||
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stefftastiq
Norway205 Posts
and even pointing out points so almost i get sucked into it i still want to pressure youngminiii a bit more you did point out a bit to much that you defended sinani... ##Unvote ##Vote youngminiii | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
ON's defense is really shitty in my opinion, claiming that he's always bad at town is just... not how you should defend yourself. I need to re-read a bit, will have a big post coming up later. | ||
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dementrio
678 Posts
On June 07 2011 11:16 youngminii wrote: Right now we know that Sinani was town. In fact, the fact that he was a vet made him an extremely important target for the mafia to snipe during the day. As such, it leads me to believe that at least 2-3 people that had originally (before moving over to ON) voted for Sinani were indeed scum. As more and more townies jumped on the bandwagon, the scum felt relatively safe. Then an opposing bandwagon started on ON. If ON is scum, then the vote on Sinani became even more important, as Sinani was the only other option. If ON is scum, then everyone on the Sinani bandwagon becomes even more suspicious than they are now, to the point where they become lynchable/vigi targets (imo). This is actually the most likely scenario, since mataza/palmar are both on my scumdar and steff/prplhz are both pretty scummy too. You are assuming that mafia knew sinani as vet from the start. When he asked his green question he had votes from prplhz, palmar and mataza. Up until then we have no reason to assume that the mafia had prioritized him, although he was an easy target. After the green question people joined the bandwagon in this order: stefftastiq, unichan, varpulis, originalname. Then the actual claim came, varpulis proposed originalname as the alternate wagon but forgot to actually switch votes, you put your vote for ON and palmar switched. Would palmar switch vote so quickly if he was scum? My gut tells me no. Sinani was an important target at that point and mafia still didn't know how the town would react to the claim. We now know that mataza was a citizen. I have a scum read on prplhz, but logic tells us that there are probably at least 2 goons to be found in the second wave to jump on sinani's bandwagon. I find kav's argument against originalname convincing and I think he is the best bandwagon candidate right now. ##vote OriginalName I have to go to a job interview right now, but after that I promise I'll be more active than I have been till now. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
I agree that OriginalName is very scummy at the moment. The main thing that sticks out to me is him insisting he always plays bad town. I always find it very suspicious when people play the "I'm bad" card (or the more popular alternative, "I'm new") as their defense. Instead of commenting on some meta, why not step up your game and actually provide an alternative. If you are town you now have the responsibility to explain why you are not scum, and try to tell us why you should not be lynched. ##Vote OriginalName | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
On June 07 2011 13:27 Kavdragon wrote: He says that "Sinani is a ok lynch target only because hes being completely useless" That's ONE reason for why sinani should be lynched. He later says " nobody is really connected to him" and " hes probably being thrown under the metaphorical bus". TWO reasons why sinani is town. Dumbest thing I've ever read. Number of reasons isn't ever relevant, it's the quality of the reasons that matter. If I just give one reason "I checked him and he flipped red", that's going to be hell of a lot more convincing than any number of counter-reasons you can think of.Anyways, it's not about percentages of points, it's about the fact that he brings up these points as to why sinani is town, then votes for him. I'm glad you agree that the previous sentences are totally irrelevant. Otherwise I'd be questioning your motives for posting that nonsense. As I see it, he brings the points up not as to why sinani is town, but as to why he's not the best lynch. 1) "Not a lot of info is gained from the lynch" is pointing out a flaw with the current target but that's not implying his townieness or otherwise. 2) "he's probably thrown under the metaphorical bus" shows that there isn't a lot of resistance to getting him lynched. The fact that he voted for him after posting that particular reason is a little strange, I admit. I can't say anything about that and concede this point. Yes, I would agree that uncertanty is common especially, as you say, day one. But you have to look at it in comparison to the vote he made on steff. There was no hesetancy in that vote. He seemed quite sure of that read, yet he went with something that was obviously a weaker read in sinani. Again, compare it to steff. His vote on steff was a no-brainer vote since steff wasn't active; once steff became active he had to switch or look like a hypocrite. I missed a few posts from steff when looking over, but I think that the point still stands. He never said anything about steff shaping up when he switched votes. On the contrary, he called himself a hypocrite. You'll have to ask him why he calls himself a hypocrite there as I don't know, but I think the course of action he took is perfectly explainable from a townie point of view: vote for inactive person X. X becomes active. Change vote from X to Y Alternatives are important, I agree. But it's the alternative that he chooses that is scummy. Look at what he accuses sinani of: Being useless. Is that honestly the most scummy thing he could find out of everyone's play? His accusation of sinani is the weak accusation of a scum player who knows that he's innocent. Not that of a townie looking for real scum to substitute. Remember it's day one. If it were any other day, I'd normally agree that just "being useless" isn't lynch worthy, and is usually the sign of a bad townie. But for a day one lynch, "being useless" is a better reason than "he was inactive, but he's not anymore, but let's lynch him anyway" Responses in Red. ##Vote: OriginalName Keep in mind, OriginalName is already at 5 votes. That's 50%. Actually I don't think this game works on majority lynch, and simply deadline lynch (correct me if I'm wrong GMarshal), so it's not as dangerous as it would be if you consider he's at L-1. That's one hell of a fast bandwagon and it's been like what, 12 hours? And I'm apparently the only person that sees anything wrong with that? I'm afraid your argument has quite a bit of holes in it and the fact that everyone is just buying it no problem and choosing to vote for him makes me believe there's at least two mafia in the 6 votes so far (6 if you count steff. He unvoted but he's clearly capable of voting for OName as well) That's some good odds and I'd like to keep this list in mind for later. + Show Spoiler + Varp Minii Kav Steff* Dementrio Palmar For completeness sake of course, I'd have to put up the list of people who didn't hop on the wagon yet (although they may later, it's quite likely they are just sleeping), so that if this lynch goes through and OName ends up flipping red, you can consider these as people who didn't wish to vote for their scumbuddy. + Show Spoiler + Jeejee* Unichan Prplhz *I put a star on myself because I know I'm innocent, and I'm just not buying your argument. Also note that OriginalName is missing from this list for obvious reasons. TL,DR: Essentially, your argument comes down to: "He said Sinani isn't a good lynch target but he voted for him anyway, AH-HA! Gotcha mafia scum!" Sorry, but for a day one lynch target, you rarely if ever have a "good target", and sometimes you just have to go along with the rest of the town's opinion since you won't be able to convince them otherwise (it's not like you can make a decidedly better argument against anyone else on day one so why bother?) This would be a good argument later in the game, but day one? Give me a break. How does nobody else see this? I'm sorry, but this warrants a FoS on you from me, Kav. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On June 08 2011 02:52 JeeJee wrote: Actually I don't think this game works on majority lynch, and simply deadline lynch (correct me if I'm wrong GMarshal), so it's not as dangerous as it would be if you consider he's at L-1. This is a deadline lynch, majority dosn't matter, only who has the most votes at the end of the day, so yes, you are correct JeeJee | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
"I just want to point this out despite how I hate using Meta [uses meta]" I feel like that's been the theme of your play this game. Say one thing, do the opposite. Why are you not defending yourself? | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
On June 08 2011 03:28 Kavdragon wrote: Sigh. Jee Jee. Get some coaching from someone. I suggest foolishness or BloodyC0bler depending on who has time. You've got good intentions, but you're doing it all wrong. I'll explain later in the game-day, but honestly, you're hurting the town much more than you are helping it right now. csb | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Varpulis The guy has had 39 posts in this game. I think his early game was quite good, avoiding fluff and applying pressure while encouraging everybody else to do the same, but his pressure ended up being a joke nobody could take seriously. He has also consistently tried to keep all doors open and all options available, never really taking a stand. His handling of the sinani206 lynch requires some scrutiny: + Show Spoiler + Link On June 05 2011 11:13 Varpulis wrote: Not damning evidence by any means. At least he's sharing his opinion and his reasons why. Does seem a bit sheepy though. Not sure how you came to the conclusion "this is scum" with that analysis. Frankly, there's not enough information on the table to properly identify scum, i think. You could say that half the players in this game are trying to be active without content. It seems to me that you really wanted to find somebody scummy, so you picked a person and figured out how is posts could be interpreted as scummy. Lynching an inactive is good and all, but it's better to lynch the one in that group that's the least active, rather than one that's just posting fluff. We can leave them for later. First I don't see why you don't think that sinani206 was acting scum. At one point or another during day1 like 8 people voted for sinani206 because of the reasons I stated in my original post and the weak defense he put up. The dude was very much scum, unless you know that he wasn't. I like how he is actively trying to take a stand here, wanting us to lynch the one who is least active. + Show Spoiler + Link On June 06 2011 01:41 Varpulis wrote: [...] Sinani206 -Actively lurking, not providing opinion, posting lists in order to seem like he's contributing. My vote goes on Sinani at the end of the day if he doesn't step up his posting. These are the exact same arguments that I used for my vote but that were not "damning by any means". Also it goes against his policy that you should lynch the one with least activity rather than those with least content, there were still people with just about no activity at this point. + Show Spoiler + Link On June 06 2011 06:19 Varpulis wrote: Alright, my vote on OriginalName is accomplishing nothing at this point. He needs to step up his posting or I'll be gunning for him later. sinani206 My previous analysis of Sinani can be found here Since then, he posted In this post, he pretends that he doesn't know what he was expected to post. I call bullshit. He's avoiding posting an opinion and hiding behind his lurker vote. At this point, he's playing to a scum objective, by lurking actively and not giving us quality posts to analyze. ##unvote OriginalName ##vote sinani206 As an aside, i've got a major noobtown read on stefftastiq atm. First he says my analysis is bad, then he agrees with it and then he votes for sinani206 because of my original analysis and that two-line post he quotes here. I can use Kavdragon's scum tells from his OriginalName analysis, Varpulis claims one thing but does another. Also Varpulis drops his policy of lynching the least active player to give the forming bandwagon a big push. After sinani206's veteran claim he proposes a plan: cop check sinani206 but don't claim, and he opens up the possibility for himself to change votes to OriginalName if other people decide to do so. After that he supposedly disappears until after the lynch. Now if you consider this plan it is extremely good for scum. If there is a cop he will waste his check on sinani206, who is a townie, and after that they can just look at who is suddenly defending sinani206 on day2 and this guy might very well be cop. At the same time Varpulis tries to open up the possiblities of changing his vote in the critical 90 minutes before deadline having to do so unless some criteria is fulfilled. I think this is very scummy, the hesitation to switch his vote while still wanting to keep the option readily available. So, Varpulis, lets hear it. ##Vote Varpulis | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
What do you think of OriginalName's defence? In your own words that townies need to suggest alternatives, but it seems like all he's willing to do is sit back and call a general BS on my arguments. He's been around since I made the accusations, why isn't he responding to the points I make, and why is he not trying to contribute? | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
On June 08 2011 05:43 Kavdragon wrote: What do you think of OriginalName's defence? In your own words that townies need to suggest alternatives, but it seems like all he's willing to do is sit back and call a general BS on my arguments. He's been around since I made the accusations, why isn't he responding to the points I make, and why is he not trying to contribute? His defense is garbage, no denying that. I have no idea where he is, or why he's not responding. That doesn't make your argument any less shitty though, it just makes him look terrible. What is starting to worry me isn't the fact that your argument is shit, but the fact that a bunch of people lapped it up no problem. Kind of like minii and "lol let's have vet claim that's a great idea" day 1. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On June 08 2011 05:52 JeeJee wrote: His defense is garbage, no denying that. I have no idea where he is, or why he's not responding. That doesn't make your argument any less shitty though, it just makes him look terrible. What is starting to worry me isn't the fact that your argument is shit, but the fact that a bunch of people lapped it up no problem. Kind of like minii and "lol let's have vet claim that's a great idea" day 1. Firstly, the argument isn't shit. There is a reason why that many people followed it. If there are 6 people voting based off of that, at the very most half of them are townies who agreed with it. Secondly, I wanted to hold off on this till I got a real response out of ON, but w/e. I'll explain my actions. This is pressure. This is pressure the way you are supposed to do it. Not some crappy "I'll leave my vote on you to pressure you, but just so you know, I'm not going to actually vote you" pressure. Not some out of the blue FOS. Real pressure. There are two parts this game I play: The first is analysis. You build a case against someone, and make it as strong and condemning as possible. That's the pressure part. You have to have substance to pressure with, and you have to have a legitimate case to pressure with or people will ignore you, and there is no pressure actually put on someone. You have to get enough force that you are not the only one that is voting for them. I mean, give me a break. One vote means nothing if no one follows it. Threatening someone with your vote means nothing because you cannot lynch someone by yourself. Get people behind you, get someone to have the majority of the votes, get their neck near the noose. That, is pressure. Then comes the second part. How they respond. This part is almost (if not more) important than the first step. This is what makes or breaks a read. This is why I'm certain that OriginalName is scum. Look at it from a townie's perspective: You are accused by someone, and half the town jumps on you. One person stands up and defends you. What do you do? You defend yourself, but you also work on contributing and look for a better alternative in the event that people still think you are scum. OriginalName's defense makes NO sense in this regard. Now look at it from a mafia's perspective: You are accused by someone, and half the town jumps on you. One person stands up and defends you. What do you do? You sit back and relax. Rule number 1 according to Ace: Don't give the town a damn thing. Oh, and that townie who is defending you? If you do get lynched, then he'll make and excellent scapegoat for the mafia to bandwagon tomorrow. I wasn't totally convinced that OriginalName as guilty before, but his reaction has confirmed any doubts I had. | ||
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youngminii
Australia7514 Posts
Kav, don't flame him like that during the game. Leave that for endgame discussion. At this point, anyone that's not voting for ON will obviously be put under scrutiny if he flips red. @Dementrio: Yes I've backed off Palmar quite a bit, steff/unichan/prplhz are all scum candidates too. My gut tells me steff is just an overeager town, but that could apply to both the others too. @Prplhz: Your pressure against Varpulis is stupid. None of those reasons are scumworthy and you are guilty of the last line of reasoning yourself. I kind of don't like how you're just completely avoiding voting for ON, but I mean if you both really were scum you'd probably be trying to lynch an actual lynch candidate instead of randomly pressuring Varpulis. What vexes me right now is that other than ON, the highest number of votes on anyone is 1. Either scum knows ON is done for and is bussing him or they're extremely uncoordinated. I don't like how unichan and JeeJee are abstaining their votes until later, they could be just waiting until the last moment in case another lynch candidate pops up. I'm going to say JeeJee's doing this out of bad play, and unichan is the more suspicious one. Note: Palmar has posted contentless content again for the past few posts. Keep an eye on him. | ||
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youngminii
Australia7514 Posts
Kavdragon is very good at this game, IF ON flips green/blue can i ask the detective to check him? I'm sure Kav will agree to this if he's not scum. Thanks. | ||
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OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
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stefftastiq
Norway205 Posts
Thats one excellent post sir - some people are just able to write things crystal clear! on the "pressure vote" issue - right now all votes are for one player - and my vote for youngminii which i wanted to do to pressure him, in the fashion you mention - shouldn't town spread out their votes more, try to pressure more players at the same time (or is this a good idea?) - its pretty easy for the scum to hide when only one player is a target at once - they are probably just going with it watching town team up on their own (maybe not in the ON case) also this could probably lead to more content being put into the game - maybe then it would be less of posting just to post, without no real content - cause there probably are limits to the amount of analysis and conclusions to be made out of a fairly restricted amount of posts as far as i see it. @youngminiii i still think you left your defence out - why did you really say "yo if sinani flips green - im green" (short summary of your post) - cause thats obviously superscummy, and if you really were town, theres no real good reason to say it anyways? | ||
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OriginalName
Canada1140 Posts
On June 08 2011 03:51 Kavdragon wrote: OriginalName, where are you? I feel like that's been the theme of your play this game. Say one thing, do the opposite. Why are you not defending yourself? School, where I have no access to TL. | ||
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